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Ukraine may have had an audacious plan, which may have been a mystery to the US, that prompted a telephone call earlier this month from the Ruzzia MOD to the US SOD.

 

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Earlier this month, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III received an unusual request from an unlikely caller: His Russian counterpart wanted to talk.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Mr. Austin had spoken by phone with Russia’s defense minister only five other times, almost always at the Pentagon’s initiative and often in an effort to avoid miscalculations that could escalate the conflict.

In fact, Mr. Austin had reached out to Russia’s new defense minister, Andrei Belousov, just a couple of weeks earlier, on June 25, in an effort to keep the “lines of communication open,” the Pentagon said. It was the first phone call between the two men since Mr. Belousov, an economist, replaced Sergei K. Shoigu, Russia’s long-running defense minister, in a Kremlin shake-up in May.

Now on July 12, Mr. Belousov was calling to relay a warning, according to two U.S. officials and another official briefed on the call: The Russians had detected a Ukrainian covert operation in the works against Russia that they believed had the Americans’ blessing. Was the Pentagon aware of the plot, Mr. Belousov asked Mr. Austin, and its potential to ratchet up tensions between Moscow and Washington?

Pentagon officials were surprised by the allegation and unaware of any such plot, the two U.S. officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the confidential phone call. But whatever Mr. Belousov revealed, all three officials said, it was taken seriously enough that the Americans contacted the Ukrainians and said, essentially, if you’re thinking about doing something like this, don’t.

Despite Ukraine’s deep dependence on the United States for military, intelligence and diplomatic support, Ukrainian officials are not always transparent with their American counterparts about their military operations, especially those against Russian targets behind enemy lines. These operations have frustrated U.S. officials, who believe that they have not measurably improved Ukraine’s position on the battlefield but have risked alienating European allies and widening the war.

Over the past two years, the operations that have unnerved the United States included a strike on a Russian air base on the western coast of Crimea, a truck bombing that destroyed part of the Kerch Strait Bridge, which links Russia to Crimea, and drone strikes deep inside Russia.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia often refers to such strikes as “terrorist attacks,” and the Kremlin uses them as evidence to back up Mr. Putin’s spurious claim that his invasion of Ukraine is really a defensive war. Despite American denials, Russian officials insist publicly that such strikes could not happen without U.S. approval and support.

Whether the alleged Ukrainian plot this month was real and imminent is still unclear, as is what form it might have taken. Pentagon and White House officials say nothing has happened — yet. They have declined to describe the call in detail but stressed the need for dialogue among adversaries.

“During the call, the secretary emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication amid Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine,” Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokeswoman, told reporters hours after the conversation on July 12.

Pentagon officials declined to say if Mr. Austin brought up the matter in a phone call on Tuesday with his Ukrainian counterpart, Rustem Umerov.

A Russian Defense Ministry statement after the July 12 call confirmed that Mr. Belousov initiated it, adding that “the issue of preventing security threats and reducing the risk of possible escalation was discussed.” But the statement made no mention of a suspected Ukrainian covert mission.

Ukrainian officials declined to comment on the matter. The Kremlin also declined to comment for this article, and the Russian Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

The rare glimpse behind the scenes of a sensitive call between defense ministers illustrates how much more there often is to private conversations between American and Russian officials than what is revealed to the public. And how the United States and Russia try to manage escalation risks behind the scenes.

For instance, in the phone call last month between Mr. Austin and Mr. Belousov, Mr. Austin “emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication amid Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine,” said Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary.

Mr. Austin initiated that call and “believes that keeping lines of communication open are important,” General Ryder said.

Mr. Austin and Mr. Belousov “exchanged views on the situation around Ukraine,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement about the same call. It added that Mr. Belousov “pointed to the danger of further escalation of the situation in connection with the continued supply of American weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”

But two officials familiar with the call said Mr. Austin also warned his Russian counterpart not to threaten U.S. troops in Europe amid rising tensions in Ukraine.

About four days later, American defense officials raised the security alert level at military bases in Europe in response to vague threats from the Kremlin over Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons on Russian territory.

American officials said that no specific intelligence about possible Russian attacks on American bases had been collected. Any such attack by Russia, whether overt or covert, would be a significant escalation of its war in Ukraine.

Russia has stepped up acts of sabotage in Europe, hoping to disrupt the flow of matériel to Ukraine. So far, no American bases have been targeted in those attacks, but U.S. officials said raising the alert level would help ensure that service members were keeping watch.

Then there were the calls on Oct. 21 and Oct. 23, 2022, between Mr. Austin and Mr. Shoigu — the first requested by the Americans, the second by the Russians.

The Pentagon’s summary of the second call stated, “Secretary Austin rejected any pretext for Russian escalation and reaffirmed the value of continued communication amid Russia’s unlawful and unjustified war against Ukraine.”

A week later, The New York Times reported that senior Russian military leaders had recently discussed when and how Moscow might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, according to multiple senior American officials.

The new intelligence surfaced when Moscow was promoting the baseless notion that Ukraine was planning to use a so-called dirty bomb — a conventional explosive laced with radioactive material.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was not a part of the conversations with his generals, which were held as Russia was intensifying nuclear rhetoric and suffering battlefield setbacks.

But the fact that senior Russian military leaders were even having the discussions alarmed the Biden administration because it showed how frustrated they were about their failures in Ukraine and suggested that Mr. Putin’s veiled threats to use nuclear weapons might not just be words.

While the risk of further escalation remained high, Biden administration officials and U.S. allies also said at the time that the phone calls between Western and Russian counterparts in late October helped ease some of the nuclear tensions.

“These calls are about avoiding worst-case outcomes in a relationship that could potentially go over the edge,” said Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst at the RAND Corporation.

Anton Troianovski contributed reporting from Berlin, and Marc Santora from Kyiv.

Eric Schmitt is a national security correspondent for The Times, focusing on U.S. military affairs and counterterrorism issues overseas, topics he has reported on for more than three decades. More about Eric Schmitt

 

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Institute for the Study of War: Ruzzia hasn't learned the lesson about futility of large-scale frontal assaults.  https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/07/26/7467483/

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Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The current strategy of the Russian military, which involves deploying numerous armoured vehicles for limited tactical gains, highlights a lack of strategic foresight. As time goes on, the increasing scarcity of equipment is likely to make such mechanised offensives increasingly unsustainable and costly. To maintain its aggressive operations in Ukraine, Russia has been heavily reliant on refurbishing old stocks of Soviet-era weaponry, particularly armoured vehicles.

According to a report by the Ukraine-based open-source organisation Frontelligence Insight on 25 July, Russian forces have been observed transporting hundreds of pieces of military equipment, mainly older refurbished armoured vehicles such as T-62 and T-55 tanks, to the front lines during June and early July 2024. These vehicles have not yet seen combat, suggesting that Russia may be planning to deploy them later this year. Frontelligence Insight also noted that internal Russian documents reveal a backlog of tanks, damaged in the past six months, awaiting replacement parts, with engine shortages leading to the cannibalisation of newer T-80 tanks for repairs.

Despite these logistical challenges, Russia still has enough armoured vehicles to conduct periodic company-sized and larger mechanised assaults along the front lines in the foreseeable future.

 

 

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Over the past two years, the operations that have unnerved the United States included a strike on a Russian air base on the western coast of Crimea, a truck bombing that destroyed part of the Kerch Strait Bridge, which links Russia to Crimea, and drone strikes deep inside Russia.

From the article above-- if these actions are bothering US politicians and diplomats, they better get used to the idea of a lot more.  That bridge is eventually coming down one way or another.  Ukraine will do it completely without our involvement as they've already proven.

The idea that our pansy-ass diplomats are bothered by this is infuriating, and frustrating.

Edited by utee94
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1 minute ago, utee94 said:

From the article above-- if these actions are bothering US politicians and diplomats, they better get used to the idea of a lot more.  That bridge is eventually coming down one way or another.  Ukraine will do it completely without our involvement as they've already proven.

The idea that our pansy-ass diplomats are bothered by this is infuriating, and frustrating.

I think the problem is they weren’t sure how Putin would react, but now they have clear data that shows that for all the red lines he draws, Putin won’t do shit like launch nukes or whatever they were worried about.

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14 minutes ago, utee94 said:

From the article above-- if these actions are bothering US politicians and diplomats, they better get used to the idea of a lot more.  That bridge is eventually coming down one way or another.  Ukraine will do it completely without our involvement as they've already proven.

The idea that our pansy-ass diplomats are bothered by this is infuriating, and frustrating.

I'm not sure what they were up to, but I'm guessing it wasn't the bridge, I would think we would look at that as fair game.  This was something else.  

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2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I'm not sure what they were up to, but I'm guessing it wasn't the bridge, I would think we would look at that as fair game.  This was something else.  

Oh yeah, I'm not talkin about the operation that they chose to warn them about to shut down.

I'm just referring to the idea that our reps were "unnerved" by Ukraine attacking the bridge and making attempts to liberate occupied Crimea.  What a bunch of pansies.  If that's "unnerving" to them, then they're really gonna lose their shit when Ukraine succeeds in blowing that bridge off the face of the planet.

I'm hopeful @atomheartbevo's assessment is correct and that this was the feeling from before we knew that putin's redlines are not real.  But given how generally wimpy our approach has been to this whole thing, I have my doubts.

 

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13 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I'm hopeful @atomheartbevo's assessment is correct and that this was the feeling from before we knew that putin's redlines are not real.  But given how generally wimpy our approach has been to this whole thing, I have my doubts.

We don’t see it as much now, but last year and in 2022, Russian talking heads on the official state TV channels were talking about nuking Western cities, invading Poland, etc. and I’m sure that spooked plenty of people who were younger or did not have the context to put the threats in.  They didn’t understand that the huge tables for Putin or him sitting across the room from people or the security detail constantly dressing up and playing the role of local workers when he visited some place as being a sign that Putin is afraid of being killed.

24 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I'm not sure what they were up to, but I'm guessing it wasn't the bridge, I would think we would look at that as fair game.  This was something else.  

I was wondering about missile or drone strikes on the Kremlin.

It had to be something related to them degrading the Russian air defenses, whatever it is.   Maybe it was bomber bases that have nukes.

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I'll be making my friends and neighbors aware that they now have a productive option if they wish to ditch their tesla

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    In a tiny garage on the outskirts of Kyiv, a group of mechanics pored over the carcass of a wrecked old Tesla, stripping it of parts. But instead of trying to repair the car, the men were busy extracting its battery, hoping to use it to power local businesses and homes.

Their work — which can turn a single discarded Tesla into a dozen home battery systems — is one of myriad ways in which Ukrainian businesses are responding to the regular blackouts the country has faced since Russia launched a string of attacks on its energy grid earlier this year.

Russia has now knocked out or captured more than half of Ukraine’s domestic electricity generating capacity, forcing energy companies to impose rolling nationwide blackouts that have left homes and businesses without electricity for up to 20 hours a day.

Businesses have been forced to adapt. Across Kyiv, diesel generators parked outside shops and cafés rumble into action as soon as power goes down, and many households in the capital plug their appliances into rechargeable battery systems at home.

Oleksandr Bentsa, 30, realised he had a potential solution to hand. For years, the businessman had been buying crashed Teslas on insurance auctions in the US and importing them to Ukraine, where his mechanics would restore and resell the cars.

When the most severe blackouts began this spring, he realised there was a new use for his trade. Bentsa found electricians capable of doing the dangerous job of carving salvaged Tesla batteries into multiple rechargeable systems. 

    “An old Tesla, including the cost of delivery, will be nearly $10,000. And you can turn that into 12 batteries, and also sell the parts,” he said. He named his brand Ukrainian Autonomous Systems.

Each system thus produced has a capacity of 5 kilowatt hours, enough to run the lights and electrical equipment — but not energy-hungry electric heating — in a normal Kyiv apartment for 10 hours. Some he sells without a margin to the army, but most of his customers are civilians. Demand has gone from near zero to sky high in the past two months, and Bentsa expects it to rise as winter approaches.

“What we see now is just a little, little, little piece. What we will see in the winter, it will be a very great problem,” Bentsa said.

Ukrainians will face electricity cuts until the war is over, say analysts, with Russian attacks set to continue and the repair effort playing catch-up.

Some key nuclear and thermal units were expected to come back online next month, once repair works are completed, easing the situation to a degree, said Volodymyr Omelchenko, an energy expert at the Razumkov Centre think-tank, and pressure on the grid also eased after a powerful heatwave receded last week.

But repairs will still only bring electricity supply for consumers back up to at least 12 hours a day, and more Russian attacks could inflict further damage.

Nataliia Shapoval, head of the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, said Ukraine and its partners need to grasp the wider Russian strategy: if attacks continue, Ukraine could soon lack power for its capital-intensive large businesses, triggering a fall in tax revenue.

“It will be a really significant problem for our macroeconomic situation,” she said.

Dealing with the energy crisis has pushed up costs for businesses across Ukraine.

Roman Vakulenko, a garage manager, has installed a generator at the shop. “But this means the price of our work goes up, and people start getting upset,” he said. “If previously something cost 800 [hryvnia], it now costs 900” ($22).

For some, the additional energy costs push an already tight business model into the red.

At a 1,000 square metre refrigeration facility in Kyiv, Andriy Aleynik stores some 300 tonnes of frozen food, such as berries and potato chips, at temperatures of -18 to -20 degrees centigrade.

“A café might require 2 kilowatts of energy per hour, but we need 400 kilowatts,” Aleynik said. A generator like that can cost between €70,000 and €150,000. “This is a very big sum. For us to go and buy that, we’d be repaying the loan for, I don’t know, 10 or 20 years.”

The blackouts, which affect Aleynik’s facility for about 12 hours a day, have led to partial melting of frozen goods that shortens their lifespan. “We can see the cherries leaking, for example. In these temperatures, it’s defrosting.”

With the power cuts also interrupting logistics, and customers purchasing less-perishable food because of blackouts at home, Aleynik’s sales have fallen 70 per cent in the past two months. “I don’t know what we’ll do,” he said.

Aleynik hopes his business will be added to a list of critically important enterprises that are guaranteed an uninterrupted power supply by Ukraine’s energy companies.

Before the Russian invasion, Ukraine could produce about 55 gigawatts of electricity. That capacity has now dropped below 20GW.

In Kyiv, traffic lights go off when the power is out, and crossings are navigated ad hoc, with pedestrians holding their phone lights up at night so that drivers can see them. Restaurants have developed “blackout menus”, showing which dishes they can cook when the power is out.

“The situation is tough,” said Dmytro Bilotserkovets, a member of the Kyiv city council and adviser to its mayor. Buses increasingly replace electric-powered public transport such as trolley buses and trams during cuts. “The most important thing now is to try as much as possible to stimulate renewables,” he added.

Solar and wind projects are popping up across Ukraine. Hospitals are tiling roofs with solar panels; sheets of solar panels are being installed in small villages that rely on electric power to pump water from wells; the town of Lutsk has fitted solar panels to traffic lights so they keep working when the mains power is off.

For those who live in apartment blocks, often with electric stoves and electric water pumps, blackouts can mean there is no way to cook or wash as well as no elevators. These are daily problems for Vakulenko, the small garage owner, who lives on the 24th floor.

“I have a big dog and I need to walk it. But we have power cuts from 6pm,” he said.

“So I go home and walk up the stairs to the 24th floor, grab my dog, and then we head back down,” he said, showing the step count on his iPhone fitness app. “And then we go back up again . . . It’s tough.”

But everywhere, Ukrainians are finding ways to adapt. Bentsa’s father has gone a step further than his son, and plugged his entire house in the Kyiv suburbs directly into a Tesla parked in the yard. It is a car with a battery capacity of 100kwh. “You can run a whole house on that for a week,” Bentsa said.

 

 

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Highlights: Russian forces advance at Yasnobrodivka, Krasnohorivka, Lozuvatske and Prohres. Ukrainian forces are losing slowly but decisively in this area and Pokrovsk is now less than 20 km away. 

Note that DeepState's map has much further Russian gains west of Avdiivka, but we haven't seen geolocations for them yet. The situation appears dire for Ukrainian forces in the area.

No change in Zaporizhia or Kherson, but north of Bakhmut and in Kharkiv/Luhansk Russian forces have made gains. Map: uacontrolmap.com

 

 

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39 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Two platoons of mercenaries from the Russian PMC "Wagner" were ambushed by separatist Tuaregs from "Azawad".
The Malians managed to shoot down two Russian helicopters (Mi-8 & Mi-24) and destroy a convoy of vehicles and MRAPs. Between 50/60 Wagner members were killed. Additionally, three Russians were captured.

We sure they didn't have help from the French or Ukrainians?

Also, I can't help picturing this every time a story about the Tuaregs pops up, and man, they aren't taking anybody out (except maybe to McDonald's or the kids' soccer game)

640px-2005_Volkswagen_Touareg_V6_Sport_A

39 minutes ago, MillerEP said:


‼️Among the group was a well-known Russian military figure and the author of the Telegram channel "Grey Zone". which has 500,000 subscribers. He was killed.

Noice Split Depth GIF by MOODMAN

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Life under Russian occupation

Even worse (NSFW or life, unless you're Vic):

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1817205458844729554?t=jzZ808IO0Bi69q5G-LTayA&s=19 

That's how things are done in Russia. "If you show me your fuc**ng badge again, I'll smash your fu***ng face in."

In Krasnodar, a naked woman stuck a fork in a policeman's temple and beat him up.

The policeman, who had come to deal with noise complaints from his neighbor Katerina, encountered unexpected resistance.

During the conflict, she declared: "Where is the registration full-fledged?" and continued to present physical arguments. As a result, the injured policeman refused to be hospitalized.

Edited by KYHorn
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3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

So much to discuss in the first video.

"Shit Sergei, Vladimir hit a mine, and you know he had the General's still on board!"

"OK, Oleg, I will more us to somewhere safe, I can see they all got out and are running back."

Captain Suckacocokov screams into the radio "No turn around and secure the still, open roads for logistics to the front can wait. We must have that still!"

They turn around boommmmmm.

 

Edited by InkaUtexas
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1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

Russian military reporter Alexander Kharchenko reports that logistics on the Russian side are getting worse over time due to the abundance of drones on the Ukrainian side. He says that even a year ago in Robotyne they were dismounted 1 kilometer from the positions, but now dismounting from armour takes place 8-10 km from the front. However, there are no available solutions to the problem yet.

Wan to really punish them? Send them back to Russia after leaking all the Wagner information they provided. Goals, investments, shit like that. Make it up, who cares. I am sure a few of the members on this board could come up with some good ones. What say, help the Tauregs?

And no @atomheartbevo, you don't get a new VW for participating.

Edited by InkaUtexas
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1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

Life under Russian occupationEven worse (NSFW or life, unless you're Vic):

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1817205458844729554?t=jzZ808IO0Bi69q5G-LTayA&s=19 

That's how things are done in Russia. "If you show me your fuc**ng badge again, I'll smash your fu***ng face in."

In Krasnodar, a naked woman stuck a fork in a policeman's temple and beat him up.

The policeman, who had come to deal with noise complaints from his neighbor Katerina, encountered unexpected resistance.

During the conflict, she declared: "Where is the registration full-fledged?" and continued to present physical arguments. As a result, the injured policeman refused to be hospitalized.

Fresh out of the shower or some shit, but of course she had a fork

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