Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[KYHorn 17613]

More purges of people close to Shoigu:

The head of Russia's military park and a top Defense Ministry official are arrested for fraud

https://apnews.com/article/russia-military-arrests-putin-patriot-park-defense-04da2edce59bdb65f2029b6456385f54

Spoiler

 

MOSCOW (AP) - The director of an exhibition park showcasing Russia's military might was arrested on fraud charges along with a top Defense Ministry official, part of a sweeping investigation into abuse of office in the top echelons of the military leadership.

Vyacheslav Akhmedov, head of the Patriot Park - sometimes called Russia's "military Disneyland" - and Maj. Gen Vladimir Shesterov, deputy of the Defense Ministry's innovations department, were detained, Russia's Investigative Committee said Monday.

The committee, Russia's top criminal investigation agency, said the two are suspected of embezzling government funds earmarked for the park, which opened in 2015.

Patriot Park features displays of weaponry and serves as a venue for their demonstration and battle reenactments. The sprawling facility also includes an air base along with a firing range, museums, a conference center and even has a Russian Orthodox cathedral devoted to the armed forces on its 5,400 hectares (over 13,300 acres).

The park, a pet project of former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, is designed to inspire patriotism in Russia's younger generations. Patriarch Kirill in 2020 consecrated the massive, khaki-colored Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces, which features mosaics of Soviet and Russian soldiers. Russian President Vladimir Putin also personally donated money to commission the main icon for the church, according to the Kremlin.

The detention of Akhmedov and Shesterov follows a series of arrests of senior military officials who were part of the inner circle of Shoigu, dismissed by Putin soon after his inauguration in May to a sixth term.

Shoigu, who had personal ties to Putin, was given the high-profile post of secretary of Russia's Security Council, but several members of his entourage lost their jobs and many of them were arrested, including top associate and deputy, Timur Ivanov, who was jailed on bribery charges in April.

Shoigu had been widely criticized for Russia's setbacks on the battlefield in Ukraine and was accused of incompetence and corruption by mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who launched a brief mutiny in June 2023 to demand his dismissal

 

[KYHorn 17613]

 Full story in the video

"I set fire and left with peace of mind" - sailor "Goga" burned down a Russian ship and joined the side of Ukraine.

"Goga" is a former serviceman of the Russian Baltic Fleet. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, he opposed the war, for which he was deprived of access to weapons, rearranged to put on watch and prepared to be sent to the "special military operation".

The sailor managed to escape from the Russian Federation with the help of the GUR and the Freedom of Russia Legion, but before that, he burned down the ship he was serving on. 

"I called the commander of the combat unit, and they were at sea right then. I said, "You came from the sea, you are tired. Have a rest, and I'll be on duty." And I stayed alone on the ship for 24 hours. That's it. I set fire and left the ship," "Goga" said.

[BamaATL 16593]

Well, it wasn't the bridge we called them off on, if this is true

2.  

[Braff Zacklin 13676]

Odd if true.

I don't believe Putin would be martyred. I also don't believe Russia would stay committed to the "special operation" if Vlad suddenly stopped existing.

His death is the only thing that would bring an end to this conflict without tens of thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) more lives lost.

Only negative I could see is, Ukraine takes a swing at him, misses, so Putin responds with (nuclear?) escalation. And that's a pretty huge negative.

Interested in how @InkaUtexas and @956 Worldwide interpret the above news.

Edited August 6 by Braff Zacklin

[AUS-97HORN 12050]

just fucking do it Ukraine.

 

hes a legit fucking target. I dont give a fuck if hes in St Pete or Moscow, or Sochi

[956 Worldwide 35589]

The source for this is the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister. There was a call and a discussion about a plot, but if the Russians had that level of fidelity on what it was, there’d be no need to call us.  
 

If Rybakov isn’t lying (unlikely), it was the right call. An attack on the head of state of a nuclear power would be extremely destabilizing. 

[BamaATL 16593]

11 minutes ago, Braff Zacklin said:

Odd if true.

I don't believe Putin would be martyred. I also don't believe Russia would stay committed to the "special operation" if Vlad suddenly stopped existing.

His death is the only thing that would bring an end to this conflict without tens of thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) more lives lost.

Only negative I could see is, Ukraine takes a swing at him, misses, so Putin responds with (nuclear?) escalation. And that's a pretty huge negative.

Interested in how @InkaUtexas and @956 Worldwide interpret the above news.

We always tend to think in this type of situation that the next guy won't be worse, but that isn't the always the case.  What if the next man up is organized and more ruthless, or more unhinged?  I'm guessing our Intel had it that it'd be worse for US interests and Ukraine's.  

[Braff Zacklin 13676]

Good input, guys. Thanks.

[MillerEP 30901]

What makes it believable is this is totally something we'd do. We'd tell Ukraine not to attack in Russia, not to attack Putin, and all the while turn the other way while they glide bomb Children's Cancer Hospitals, and supposedly sent in Hit Squads in the first days of the war to get Zelensky. 

Edited August 6 by MillerEP

[wd40 1976]

let's not forget what kind of scumbags putin surrounds himself with.  they're all in for a penny, in for a pound.   if it wasn't for the nukes, I'd be hell yeah, do it.  but it also sets a bad precedent, that could domino very quickly.

[InkaUtexas 26860]

51 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The source for this is the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister. There was a call and a discussion about a plot, but if the Russians had that level of fidelity on what it was, there’d be no need to call us.  
 

If Rybakov isn’t lying (unlikely), it was the right call. An attack on the head of state of a nuclear power would be extremely destabilizing. 

Excellent points. Unless we knew who would take over no way we go with it. If this was the case then it was briefed and Ukrainian Yuri was told nope, don't do it.

We want to think some bad ass liberal democrat poet/outsider/oppostion leader is going to somehow take over when Putin goes. But not one of them has a power base, is a real threat, or the military behind him. I think the best case scenario will be either military who is tired of this shit in Ukraine and being embarrased (yeah, they know their gear sucks) or a hardline in the FSB. Either way more people fall out of windows.

 

 

[Nivek 17405]

12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Excellent points. Unless we knew who would take over no way we go with it. If this was the case then it was briefed and Ukrainian Yuri was told nope, don't do it.

We want to think some bad ass liberal democrat poet/outsider/oppostion leader is going to somehow take over when Putin goes. But not one of them has a power base, is a real threat, or the military behind him. I think the best case scenario will be either military who is tired of this shit in Ukraine and being embarrased (yeah, they know their gear sucks) or a hardline in the FSB. Either way more people fall out of windows.

 

 

But the internal turmoil for Russia would take some of the heat off of Ukraine most likely during the transition as the vultures try to consolidate power and eliminate threats which could include the break-up of Russia into smaller states as well.   Putin may be a shithead, but a dead russian leader sends a major message to the next in charge.   It also gives them a face saving out, blame Putin, return territory/kids/etc. and trying to re-participate in the world economy again without China fleecing them.   Of course the next person could totally have a peaceful transfer of power and just double down and send more people to the slaughter.     But given that Wagner basically rolled to the outskirts of Moscow unmolested there are more than a few problems in Russia and I think the former is much more likely than the latter extreme.  

Edited August 6 by Nivek

[atomheartbevo 90636]

4 hours ago, KYHorn said:

The detention of Akhmedov and Shesterov follows a series of arrests of senior military officials who were part of the inner circle of Shoigu, dismissed by Putin soon after his inauguration in May to a sixth term.

When they say “detention” do they really mean “defenestration”??

As far as those Iskander missile systems and the Murmansk-BN electronic warfare systems that @Schulz2.0 mention, I have a hard time believing Russian is giving up working systems to Iran, especially those two systems.  They’d have to get a helluva lot in return, and if an Iskander found its way to Israel, I can’t imagine Israel would take that lightly.

[BamaATL 16593]

54 minutes ago, Nivek said:

But the internal turmoil for Russia would take some of the heat off of Ukraine most likely during the transition as the vultures try to consolidate power and eliminate threats which could include the break-up of Russia into smaller states as well.   Putin may be a shithead, but a dead russian leader sends a major message to the next in charge.   It also gives them a face saving out, blame Putin, return territory/kids/etc. and trying to re-participate in the world economy again without China fleecing them.   Of course the next person could totally have a peaceful transfer of power and just double down and send more people to the slaughter.     But given that Wagner basically rolled to the outskirts of Moscow unmolested there are more than a few problems in Russia and I think the former is much more likely than the latter extreme.  

it also gives them a reason to launch a nuke or the dead man's trigger.  Look, I want the fucking guy dead as anyone, but the reality is that it may well be in our best interests and Ukraine's that Russia die a slow death here.  Yes, in the interim Ukrainians will suffer, but what if we had foreknowledge that a deadman's trigger was set on Kyiv, Karkhiv, dare I say Warsaw, Tallinn, or Riga?  

[DaggerHorns 3170]

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

it also gives them a reason to launch a nuke or the dead man's trigger.  Look, I want the fucking guy dead as anyone, but the reality is that it may well be in our best interests and Ukraine's that Russia die a slow death here.  Yes, in the interim Ukrainians will suffer, but what if we had foreknowledge that a deadman's trigger was set on Kyiv, Karkhiv, dare I say Warsaw, Tallinn, or Riga?  

My thoughts precisely. This would kick off the “Dead Hand.”

[Armybrat 41390]

Best case is him being offed by one of his own scumbag minions.

[SL Xpress 7608]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

We want to think some bad ass liberal democrat poet/outsider/oppostion leader is going to somehow take over when Putin goes. But not one of them has a power base, is a real threat, or the military behind him. I think the best case scenario will be either military who is tired of this shit in Ukraine and being embarrased (yeah, they know their gear sucks) or a hardline in the FSB. Either way more people fall out of windows.

 

 

Why in the world would anyone think that? Russia is a toxic culture, full stop. Even if someone more liberal takes power, they're not going to keep power. 

Nothing less than a full invasion and conquering, followed by a lengthy occupation is going to change anything all that much about Russia or its rulers. And with nuclear weapons, that option is off the table. The best case scenario is that they become less relevant. It would be helpful for their reduced relevancy for Ukraine to keep their identity and be aligned with the west. It would be even better if they had more of their territorial integrity returned, but I've started losing hope on that front. I'm unconvinced the West has the political will to see that through. Especially with Ukraine running out of manpower to some degree. I know things aren't going well in many ways for the Russians, but with Putin in charge the political will remains steadfast. 

[InkaUtexas 26860]

27 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Best case is him being offed by one of his own scumbag minions.

The west still gets blamed.

[BamaATL 16593]

13 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Best case is him being offed by one of his own scumbag minions.

I'm not sure that is the best case anymore.  There are 22 individual Republics within Russia, and perhaps the best option here is internal rebellion.  If even one of these Republics begin to become a problem, the potential exists that more would follow suit.  Russia is overly dependent on natural resources, and if any of these start to threaten that, Putin would be forced to consider and deal with internal problems first.  If this were to last for any length of time, quite frankly he doesn't have the military resources to continue in Ukraine (as much of this has already largely been squandered).  Additionally, he would likely have to seriously start mobilizing actual Muscovites, which causes him potentially even bigger problems. 

In the end, Ukraine's best bet may well be to fight until an internal collapse/rebellion is  underway.  In my view, the best possible outcome is the dissolution of Russia, with Russia proper contained east of the Urals and largely devoid of resources, and we all have to learn new countries, their spellings, and capitals.  If that were in fact to all happen, Putin or no Putin, they'd be begging to make horse trades with the West, which gives us the best possible chance at a major disarmament (that part wouldn't include a living Putin).  

Slow decay and rot leading to dissolution is the best possible outcome, at least to me.  We'd then have lots of new problems on our hands, but hopefully ones we could resolve peacefully.  

[SL Xpress 7608]

1 hour ago, Nivek said:

But the internal turmoil for Russia would take some of the heat off of Ukraine most likely during the transition as the vultures try to consolidate power and eliminate threats which could include the break-up of Russia into smaller states as well.   Putin may be a shithead, but a dead russian leader sends a major message to the next in charge.   It also gives them a face saving out, blame Putin, return territory/kids/etc. and trying to re-participate in the world economy again without China fleecing them.   Of course the next person could totally have a peaceful transfer of power and just double down and send more people to the slaughter.     But given that Wagner basically rolled to the outskirts of Moscow unmolested there are more than a few problems in Russia and I think the former is much more likely than the latter extreme.  

I have no idea about the reality of any of this. But I do know that one of the biggest difficulties for any human apparatus is to admit when it's made a decision to go in the wrong direction. Oftentimes that simply requires a change in leadership, however it occurs. It's one of the real strengths of democracies, that regular changes in leadership allows the admission of a mistake in policy, resulting in a change in direction. It's also a big weakness, but that's how it goes. The strength of autocratic rule is a diminished reliance on popular support. While still necessary, it's not inherently necessary the way it is in a democracy, so it's possible to move decision making upstream against opposition, and to keep it going that way long past when a democracy would have to change directions. 

With the death of Putin and the rise of someone else, I can guarantee you Putin will be blamed for every ill that has befallen Russians. His most loyal people will be thrown out of windows, or otherwise imprisoned or killed. Anyone seen as a potential threat to the new leader will be disposed of. He can still be lifted up as a great leader, but his mistakes will be emphasized. Because this is what happens with the transfer of autocratic power unless the transfer is only legitimized by the previous ruler, like say in North Korea. 

Ukraine will always be in more danger than Georgia, the Baltic states, Finland, and others that Russia feels an entitlement to have firmly in its political sphere. It's the traditional source of the Russian people. Putin shares a general sentiment when he doesn't feel like Ukraine should exist as a separate entity. But this is Russia's best chance to keep Ukraine from the western fold. If they give up their efforts now, that's completely lost. At the very least they need to make sure Ukraine pays such a heavy price in terms of population, economic, resource, and territory losses that it reduces its effectiveness at being a successful nation state. 

I question whether the next leader is going to be so balls to the wall in their efforts. Speculatively it seems to me more likely they will concentrate their efforts in securing their power base. The likeliest scenario in some ways is a succession of leaders as each one tries to solidify control around their persona. 

In other words, I am firmly and wholeheartedly rooting for Putin's imminent death, regardless of means. Maybe not the best idea to send a missile to kill him, but I will not be saddened when hearing about his death regardless of means, and regardless of who ends up succeeding him. That they'll end up being another cocksucker seems de rigeur to me. 

[SL Xpress 7608]

6 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I'm not sure that is the best case anymore.  There are 22 individual Republics within Russia, and perhaps the best option here is internal rebellion.  If even one of these Republics begin to become a problem, the potential exists that more would follow suit.  Russia is overly dependent on natural resources, and if any of these start to threaten that, Putin would be forced to consider and deal with internal problems first.  If this were to last for any length of time, quite frankly he doesn't have the military resources to continue in Ukraine (as much of this has already largely been squandered).  Additionally, he would likely have to seriously start mobilizing actual Muscovites, which causes him potentially even bigger problems. 

In the end, Ukraine's best bet may well be to fight until an internal collapse/rebellion is  underway.  In my view, the best possible outcome is the dissolution of Russia, with Russia proper contained east of the Urals and largely devoid of resources, and we all have to learn new countries, their spellings, and capitals.  If that were in fact to all happen, Putin or no Putin, they'd be begging to make horse trades with the West, which gives us the best possible chance at a major disarmament (that part wouldn't include a living Putin).  

Slow decay and rot leading to dissolution is the best possible outcome, at least to me.  We'd then have lots of new problems on our hands, but hopefully ones we could resolve peacefully.  

It feels like a major mistake at this point for any country to agree to disarmament. If there's any lesson to be learned from the war for Ukraine, it's that one. 

[BamaATL 16593]

16 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

It feels like a major mistake at this point for any country to agree to disarmament. If there's any lesson to be learned from the war for Ukraine, it's that one. 

Just to be clear, I'm talking about them (Russia) having to trade nuclear weapons (as many as possible) for reentry into the global economy and world at large after the aforementioned dissolution.  

[vtaenz 603]

There's a big assumption here that the real Putin was at this event and not one of his doubles.

It could also be a reason (if true) of the US persuading Ukraine not to move forward with it.

[InkaUtexas 26860]

43 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Just to be clear, I'm talking about them (Russia) having to trade nuclear weapons (as many as possible) for reentry into the global economy and world at large after the aforementioned dissolution.  

But as we saw with the USSR collapse, some of that shit gets sold as the collapse starts. I was  pondering this and the points made by all.

1- When has Russia ever really been part of the West? Can it culturally assimilate now? Will it always have a chip on its shoulder?

2- What does a post Putin look like? Central remains as the hold, or decentralized, republics break away. Can these become viable nations? Dagestan?

So many options, possibilities, outcomes. hard to see a good one except the Eastern border of non-Russian Europe stablizes, but has to remain on guard. Russians have a long memory, and want glory. not a good combination.

[atomheartbevo 90636]

2 hours ago, vtaenz said:

There's a big assumption here that the real Putin was at this event and not one of his doubles.

It could also be a reason (if true) of the US persuading Ukraine not to move forward with it.

This is honestly a scenario where I could see the US telling Ukraine To hold off, because a major risk with such an event (Russian government collapsing) could include the Russian military losing control of their nukes, which would be very bad and would scare the shit out of NATO.

If Russia actually knew, which is a problem in and of itself, Putin wouldn’t have been at that event, at least not the real Putin.

Still, even if they make a run at Putin, he wouldn't use nukes against Ukraine as some worry about, for a couple of solid reasons, the least of which is that Putin's troops can't operate in an NBC environment (even if they had the training, which they don't, they don't have the gear or vehicles), and then you have the fact that it would get him in trouble with China and other countries that might decide they don't want to be sanctioned out the ass for associating with Russia (the US and EU would put the economic smack down on anybody dealing with Russia).  Finally, there's no way to contain it - too far west to save Putin's troops and it drifts into NATO territory (either to the west or down over the Black Sea to Turkey) and then shit gets real, and too far east and it kills/injuries lots of Russian troops and contaminates Mother Russia itself.  Plus it puts a Western target on Putin's back and the man is paranoid enough as it is.

No, if they had made a serious attempt at Putin and he survived, it allows him to mobilize the hundreds of thousands, maybe even up to a million young men, in Moscow, St. Petersburg, etc.

[atomheartbevo 90636]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

2- What does a post Putin look like? Central remains as the hold, or decentralized, republics break away. Can these become viable nations? Dagestan?

No way it stays together, although I wouldn't be surprised if the Chechens made a run at Moscow and tried to secure control of Russia.  Everybody saw how far Wagner got. Without Putin, you potentially have some Chechens deciding this is how you end the threat from Moscow once and for all, and get rich in the process. If the Chechens could get 50,000 or 100,000 fighters together and on the road to Moscow, there wouldn't be much to stop them.

[Schulz2.0 29280]

 

 

[Bevo 13870]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

 

Do y'all think the US wants Ukraine to win the war or just not lose it? It seems to me like the US wants to negotiate the end of the war at some point.

[KYHorn 17613]

Probably trying to relieve pressure on the fronts where Russia is making consistent advances 

 

Edited August 6 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 17613]

An interesting issue to keep tracking:

 

 

 

 

Edited August 6 by KYHorn

[InkaUtexas 26860]

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

No way it stays together, although I wouldn't be surprised if the Chechens made a run at Moscow and tried to secure control of Russia.  Everybody saw how far Wagner got. Without Putin, you potentially have some Chechens deciding this is how you end the threat from Moscow once and for all, and get rich in the process. If the Chechens could get 50,000 or 100,000 fighters together and on the road to Moscow, there wouldn't be much to stop them.

Hahahahahaha (breathes), hahahahahaha. Never gonna happen. This would finally get every babushka to snag Igor's vodka and start making molotovs. They might try and create an Islamic federation that would back to low intensity warfare against Russia and grab some more land.

Like Napoleon and Hitler learned, invade towards Moscow and the Russians unite. Kind of. More black widows. In this case Georgia would be in trouble.

31 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

An interesting issue to keep tracking:

 

 

 

 

Russian shit never worked well. Even their Gulag trains were late.

Edited August 6 by InkaUtexas

[RPM 26615]

I wonder, are NorK locomotives are the same gauge?

[MillerEP 30901]

Both South and North Korea uses Chinese gauge, using 1435 mm. Russia uses 1520 mm.

[BamaATL 16593]

8 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

But as we saw with the USSR collapse, some of that shit gets sold as the collapse starts. I was  pondering this and the points made by all.

1- When has Russia ever really been part of the West? Can it culturally assimilate now? Will it always have a chip on its shoulder?

2- What does a post Putin look like? Central remains as the hold, or decentralized, republics break away. Can these become viable nations? Dagestan?

So many options, possibilities, outcomes. hard to see a good one except the Eastern border of non-Russian Europe stablizes, but has to remain on guard. Russians have a long memory, and want glory. not a good combination.

Those are problems I'd like to see us try to figure out.  

 

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is honestly a scenario where I could see the US telling Ukraine To hold off, because a major risk with such an event (Russian government collapsing) could include the Russian military losing control of their nukes, which would be very bad and would scare the shit out of NATO.

If Russia actually knew, which is a problem in and of itself, Putin wouldn’t have been at that event, at least not the real Putin.

Still, even if they make a run at Putin, he wouldn't use nukes against Ukraine as some worry about, for a couple of solid reasons, the least of which is that Putin's troops can't operate in an NBC environment (even if they had the training, which they don't, they don't have the gear or vehicles), and then you have the fact that it would get him in trouble with China and other countries that might decide they don't want to be sanctioned out the ass for associating with Russia (the US and EU would put the economic smack down on anybody dealing with Russia).  Finally, there's no way to contain it - too far west to save Putin's troops and it drifts into NATO territory (either to the west or down over the Black Sea to Turkey) and then shit gets real, and too far east and it kills/injuries lots of Russian troops and contaminates Mother Russia itself.  Plus it puts a Western target on Putin's back and the man is paranoid enough as it is.

No, if they had made a serious attempt at Putin and he survived, it allows him to mobilize the hundreds of thousands, maybe even up to a million young men, in Moscow, St. Petersburg, etc.

We keep making the mistake of saying things like, "Putin won't do this, or won't do that" etc.  He's killed well over 1 million people at this point.  What's the difference to him between 1 million, 10 million, 100 million?  

[RPM 26615]

4 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Both South and North Korea uses Chinese gauge, using 1435 mm. Russia uses 1520 mm.

Maybe they could make some kind of aftermarket thing.

[ABSR 5369]

10 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

Why in the world would anyone think that? Russia is a toxic culture, full stop. Even if someone more liberal takes power, they're not going to keep power. 

Nothing less than a full invasion and conquering, followed by a lengthy occupation is going to change anything all that much about Russia or its rulers. And with nuclear weapons, that option is off the table. The best case scenario is that they become less relevant. It would be helpful for their reduced relevancy for Ukraine to keep their identity and be aligned with the west. It would be even better if they had more of their territorial integrity returned, but I've started losing hope on that front. I'm unconvinced the West has the political will to see that through. Especially with Ukraine running out of manpower to some degree. I know things aren't going well in many ways for the Russians, but with Putin in charge the political will remains steadfast. 

What we really need is Putin dying and then having it fracture the country.  Lot's of different sides, oligarchs and different ethnicity's/regions all claiming their little kingdom.  Not good for nuclear proliferation, but that is the best way for Greater (Shitty) Russia to cease to exist. 

[Parliament 14593]

As bad as the downrange implications are, it seems the dissolution of Russia is the only was Ukraine comes out of this whole.  There simply aren’t enough western weapons to kill every single Russian conscript.

[atomheartbevo 90636]

30 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

We keep making the mistake of saying things like, "Putin won't do this, or won't do that" etc.  He's killed well over 1 million people at this point.  What's the difference to him between 1 million, 10 million, 100 million?  

Putin is too scared to openly conscript Moscow and St. Petersburg like he has in rural and minority areas. I don’t see him suddenly finding the nerve to nuke Ukraine and spread the conflict beyond Ukrainian borders, while he’s still scared of his own people (who would flip out if he nuked Ukraine).

Nothing Putin has done has put an active target on his back in terms of countries other than Ukraine (not even killing children), and nothing Putin has done has truly threatened his overall trading relationship with China and a few other countries (some Chinese banks have come close to being sanctioned but China worked to make changes to avoid that).

A nuke cuts him off from China, and most likely Syria and Iran, and it means at a minimum the West is actively trying to see him ousted.  It probably also means we flood Ukraine with weapons and don’t restrict their use, and we may even set up an air defense zone, and Turkey probably allows NATO ships from outside to come into the Black Sea (it’s all fun and games until fallout drifts into Turkey).

TLDR: it runs a high risk of spreading the conflict beyond Ukraine and for all of Russia’s shit-talking, they’ve always been careful not to do anything that could bring them into active conflict with the West - it’s all been passive-aggressive shit.

[RPM 26615]

7 minutes ago, Parliament said:

There simply aren’t enough western weapons to kill every single Russian conscript.

[Nivek 17405]

it also gives them a reason to launch a nuke or the dead man's trigger.  Look, I want the fucking guy dead as anyone, but the reality is that it may well be in our best interests and Ukraine's that Russia die a slow death here.  Yes, in the interim Ukrainians will suffer, but what if we had foreknowledge that a deadman's trigger was set on Kyiv, Karkhiv, dare I say Warsaw, Tallinn, or Riga?  

That sounds like fear talking, not reason. The oligarchs are not committed to a suicide pact with Putin. Wagner made its way to Moscow without firing a shot. Their country is more fractured than we believe.

Additionally, oligarchs have their own interests and are as aligned as they as is it is politically expedient. There will be some diehards, but those will be rooted out by the next one up. The smart ones will bend the knee to the next one up.

Maybe I am wrong. But I tend to think of Russia as a feudal society with lordships.

[Parliament 14593]

20 minutes ago, RPM said:

I'm not gonna argue my point, because I really hope to be proven wrong.  If that happens I'll quote my post and apologize.

[RPM 26615]

6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I'm not gonna argue my point, because I really hope to be proven wrong.  If that happens I'll quote my post and apologize.

I never said there would be a winner.

[InkaUtexas 26860]

22 minutes ago, Nivek said:

That sounds like fear talking, not reason. The oligarchs are not committed to a suicide pact with Putin. Wagner made its way to Moscow without firing a shot. Their country is more fractured than we believe.

Additionally, oligarchs have their own interests and are as aligned as they as is it is politically expedient. There will be some diehards, but those will be rooted out by the next one up. The smart ones will bend the knee to the next one up.

Maybe I am wrong. But I tend to think of Russia as a feudal society with lordships.

It is and always has been. To think tomorrow it can change is to undue thousand of years of historical culture and the Orthodox Church (who likes it this way most of the time).

I do not see what can change their Geo-political mindset. The only ones who really experience the west are either Instagram figures, kids of oligarchs, or opposition. The first give zeros fucks. The second like the status quo, and the third could never build a strong one to start with.

What is interesting is this is Russia's first foray into real large combat operations other than Afghanistan since 1945. Yeah, they went into the East Bloc nations, but they did not carpet bomb Budapest. They did not use artillery against Prague. So what has changed? Putin.

[Laxtonto 13268]

Did anyone notice that it looks like Russia has sent S-300/S-400/S-500 to Tehran?

I am not going to get into the political discussion regarding Israel and Iran here, but my first question has to be, "Where did they come from"? We are already seeing an AD shortage across the entire front in Ukraine. So where did they rob Peter to pay Paul?

The other thing is that Russia has been increasingly wary of letting Iran have its newer radar and AD  technology. So how can they stand up new ADs around Tehran without them being manned by Russian troops? New tech is new tech. Unless the Iranians have been training on these for months, which they haven't, who is manning these systems?

From a geopolitical point, are these ADs in place to help Iran share the burden on their own ADs, so they make sure that the Iranian drone manufacturing plants have adequate coverage? If I was Israel, those manufacturing centers would be very high on my list if Iran starts retaliatory strikes. It would take a major supplier of drones off the map that are a constant annoyance for Isreal and as a benefit hurts the Russian war effort as well...

If we are really at the point where Russia is at the maximum deployment of their upper-tier AD, then something is weaker right now than previously. It is time to find it and exploit it.

Just something to think about...

[Bevo 13870]

18 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yeah, they went into the East Bloc nations, but they did not carpet bomb Budapest. They did not use artillery against Prague. So what has changed? Putin.

Putin, yes - but also remember that Ukraine may have not been destroyed if it truly was a 3 day operation. Most of the destruction, rape, torture, kidnappings and other atrocities are occurring because it has been a prolonged fight - I don't think Crimea was destroyed in the same manner.

 

PS Don't take this the wrong way - I'm just stating this from a historical perspective.

Edited August 6 by Bevo

[MillerEP 30901]

https://www.threads.net/@mx_ukr/post/C-VTagkp_3L?xmt=AQGzTp72tmFYL_Z-XW-aGG5GSWLtvbH_VoIo_q0ekoy0IQ

The situation in Kursk has decidedly gotten worse.
👀🐷💥

 

^Maybe something is going on. I'll admit I was super skeptical, but probably just the Free Russian League or whatever doing their thing again.

 

https://www.threads.net/@mx_ukr/post/C-VURZZpFOU?xmt=AQGzTp72tmFYL_Z-XW-aGG5GSWLtvbH_VoIo_q0ekoy0IQ

💥 Crimea. Oktyabirskyi Airport, after the explosions, something is burning very badly - local channelsHuh, looks like it’ll be a very long day

[Parliament 14593]

Kursk is in Russia proper?  Is Ukraine literally invading Russia?

[Armybrat 41390]

4 hours ago, Bevo said:

 

Do y'all think the US wants Ukraine to win the war or just not lose it? It seems to me like the US wants to negotiate the end of the war at some point.

History better not repeat itself….

 

[SquishMitten 10496]

On 7/29/2024 at 2:07 PM, BurntEyes said:

I'm pro Ukrainian victories in their battle for liberty.

I struggle with the reality we live in now of war seen from X/Twitter/social media.

Not critical of anyone posting them here, and I acknowledge that war is ugly. It's the surreal aspects of it being posted that is a struggle for me. In the "damn war is brutal" sense of it all. 

I grew up in a place where I became desensitized to gun and physical violence. I don't want to become desensitized to war violence.

That’s an interesting point that’s been on my mind for some time now. After the first few months of watching drones dropping grenades, I got pretty desensitized to the violence. But at some point, it started to shift back. I think I needed to be desensitized first before I could really process my thoughts on the overall aspects of war. I came to a very simple, and obvious, conclusion. It’s absolutely crazy that one person can just decide to star a war that causes so much death, destruction, and pain for so many people. That so many of that person’s citizens just go along with it when they have no desire to be there is fascinating, for lack of a better word. I understand going to war when you’ve been attacked and your family is threatened. But just because the leader of your country tells you to? And that’s been happening throughout history. It’s all so … pointless. 

[PTINS 3500]

30 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

That’s an interesting point that’s been on my mind for some time now. After the first few months of watching drones dropping grenades, I got pretty desensitized to the violence. But at some point, it started to shift back. I think I needed to be desensitized first before I could really process my thoughts on the overall aspects of war. I came to a very simple, and obvious, conclusion. It’s absolutely crazy that one person can just decide to star a war that causes so much death, destruction, and pain for so many people. That so many of that person’s citizens just go along with it when they have no desire to be there is fascinating, for lack of a better word. I understand going to war when you’ve been attacked and your family is threatened. But just because the leader of your country tells you to? And that’s been happening throughout history. It’s all so … pointless.