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4 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

We knew it was happening but interesting to hear directly how it affected the conscripts' thinking 

 

Sky News: Russian conscripts surrendered to the AFU to avoid being killed by Chechens

They are soldiers from the Russian 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment, which is made up mostly of conscripts.

As they fled, they were shot at by Chechen forces on the Russian side, who were "there to prevent them from running away".

"They went the other way, back to the enemy and surrendered. So a whole company of young conscripts, all 18-, 19-year-old boys, surrendered," says security and defense analyst Michael Clarke.

 

Glide bombs going the other way is nice

 

At this point, Russia’s best bet to slow Ukraine’s advance may be to clog them up with low value surrendering troops, knowing Ukraine will trade them back in the future for their own people that have been starved and tortured in Russia

 

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2 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I anxiously await F-16 freedom boner war porn.

I saw footage yesterday of an F-16 intercepting a Shaheed with it's gun, but it was quickly pulled down, in fact so quickly it was deleted before I could even post it.  I'm not surprised they are keeping a pretty good lid on their usage.  

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 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/17/kursk-ukraine-russia-energy-ceasefire/ 

Spoiler

 Exclusive

Ukraine’s offensive derails secret efforts for partial cease-fire with Russia, officials say
The warring countries were set to hold indirect talks in Qatar on an agreement to halt strikes on energy and power infrastructure, according to officials.

9 min

A thermal power plant is damaged in a Russian airstrike in Ukraine on April 2. (Oksana Parafeniuk for The Washington Post)
By Isabelle Khurshudyan, Siobhán O'Grady, John Hudson and Catherine Belton
August 17, 2024 at 3:00 a.m. EDT
KYIV — Ukraine and Russia were set to send delegations to Doha this month to negotiate a landmark agreement halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides, diplomats and officials familiar with the discussions said, in what would have amounted to a partial cease-fire and offered a reprieve for both countries.

But the indirect talks, with the Qataris serving as mediators and meeting separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region last week, according to the officials. The possible agreement and planned summit have not been previously reported.

For more than a year, Russia has pounded Ukraine’s power grid with a barrage of cruise missiles and drone strikes, causing irreparable damage to power stations and rolling blackouts across the country. Meanwhile, Ukraine has struck Russia’s oil facilities with long-range drone attacks that have set ablaze refineries, depots and reservoirs, reducing Moscow’s oil refining by an estimated 15 percent and raising gas prices around the world.

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Some involved in the negotiations hoped they could lead to a more comprehensive agreement to end the war, according to the officials who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive diplomacy.

The willingness to engage in the talks signaled something of a shift for both countries, at least for a limited cease-fire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Kyiv would consider a full cease-fire only if Russia first withdrew all of its troops from Ukrainian land, including the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia invaded and annexed in 2014. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has demanded that Ukraine first cede four Ukrainian regions — including some territory that Russian forces aren’t occupying — that the Kremlin has declared as part of Russia.

Ukrainian and Russian officials haven’t met face to face for talks since the first months of the war, when delegations from both sides convened for secret talks in Istanbul. Those negotiations eventually fell apart. Later, the two sides agreed to a grain deal that led to Russia temporarily lifting a naval blockade, allowing Ukraine to transfer grain through the Black Sea. That, too, collapsed months later when Russia pulled out of the deal. Other attempts to establish humanitarian corridors have largely failed.

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A diplomat briefed on the talks said Russian officials postponed their meeting with Qatari officials after Ukraine’s incursion into western Russia. Moscow’s delegation described it as “an escalation,” the diplomat said, adding that Kyiv did not warn Doha about its cross-border offensive.

Russia “didn’t call off the talks, they said give us time,” the diplomat said. Though Ukraine wanted to send its delegation to Doha anyway, the person said, Qatar declined because it did not see a one-sided meeting as beneficial. The small Arab country has positioned itself as a powerful mediator in recent years and has hosted ongoing talks aimed at ending the war in Gaza.

In response to questions from The Washington Post, the Ukrainian presidential office said in a statement that the summit in Doha was postponed “due to the situation in the Middle East,” but it would take place in a video conference format Aug. 22, after which Kyiv would consult with its partners about implementing what was discussed.

The Kremlin did not respond to requests for comment. The White House declined to comment for this story. The Biden administration has long said the timing and terms of a potential cease-fire agreement with Russia are for Ukraine alone to decide.

A transformer of an electrical substation burns after shelling from Ukraine in the town of Shebekino in the Belgorod region of Russia in late 2022. (Taisia Liskovets/Sputnik/AP)

The diplomat briefed on the talks said Kyiv and Moscow had both signaled their readiness to accept the arrangement in the lead-up to the summit. But senior officials in Kyiv had mixed expectations about whether the negotiations could succeed, with some putting the odds at 20 percent and others anticipating even worse prospects, according to two people familiar with the talks, even if the Kursk assault had not happened. But the planned talks and potential agreement — now on hold — raise the stakes for Zelensky’s gamble.

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One of the reasons Ukrainian officials doubted Russia’s sincerity is its extensive bombing campaign of Ukrainian energy infrastructure in recent weeks. More bombardment could leave civilians without power for hours each day during the frigid winter months.

“We have one chance to get through this winter, and that’s if the Russians won’t launch any new attacks on the grid,” an Ukrainian official who was briefed on the talks said.

Kyiv’s move to push into Russia, which has occupied roughly 20 percent of Ukraine, was intended in part to give Ukraine more leverage for any future negotiations, Ukrainian and Western officials have said.

Military analysts have expressed skepticism that Ukrainian forces can maintain control of the Russian territory. Moscow has also continued to make gains in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region and has not diverted troops from there to defend the new Ukrainian assault.

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But while Kyiv might have improved its future negotiating position with the land grab, the likelihood of imminent peace talks appears diminished. Putin publicly vowed this week not to soften his position on negotiations because of the assault on Russian territory.

The diplomat familiar with the talks said that Qatar has been discussing the arrangement for an energy strike moratorium with Kyiv and Moscow for the past two months. The official said the two sides agreed to a summit in Doha with just minor details left to be worked out.

“After Kursk, the Russians balked,” another person familiar with the talks said.

A Russian academic with close ties to senior Russian diplomats signaled that Putin would not be in the mood to make a deal after the Kursk offensive.

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“You know our Russian leadership usually does not make any compromises under pressure,” the person said.

The academic added that Russia might be more willing to consider an energy infrastructure deal as a way to lure Kyiv to broader cease-fire talks. Otherwise, he said, Moscow could be less motivated since it believed it could inflict more damage on Ukrainian energy infrastructure than Kyiv was able to on Russian oil refineries.

Russia’s strikes on Ukraine’s power grid have been a brutally effective tactic. Daily life for Ukrainians who live far from the front line has been disrupted by blackouts that can last hours. The outages have also severely hurt an economy already crippled by war. Some people who have moved abroad cite the power instability as a chief reason.

Ukrainian officials have expressed concern about how the country will survive the winter if Russia’s bombardment continues. Because of Russian airstrikes, Ukraine has lost around nine gigawatts of the 18 gigawatts needed for peak consumption this winter — far too much to recover in a short period of time. Officials say electricity could be limited to five to seven hours a day — or less — during the frigid months.

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“Everything has to be weighed — our potential and the possible damage to our economy versus how much more damage could we cause them and their economy,” the Ukrainian official briefed on the planned Qatar summit said. “But energy is definitely critical for us. We sometimes forget about the economy here, but we’re facing free fall if there’s no light and heat in the winter.”

The Ukrainians preferred that a potential deal to halt energy infrastructure strikes could be reached in a similar way to the grain deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations in 2022 that led to Russia temporarily lifting a naval blockade, allowing Ukraine to transfer grain through the Black Sea.

Moscow then pulled out of the agreement last year, claiming only 3 percent of the grain went to the neediest nations despite U.N. figures showing the majority of the exports from the deal went to developing countries. However, Kyiv has continued to successfully move cargo out of its Black Sea ports with Ankara’s support.

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A second Ukrainian official familiar with the potential agreement said that for an energy strike ban, “we talk with partners to be sure that the deal will work, not one-to-one with Russia, as it was.”

Kyiv has lobbied countries to support its 10-point peace plan, which includes a full Russian withdrawal. At a two-day summit in Switzerland in June that was organized by Ukraine, more than 80 countries’ delegations signed onto a joint statement that promoted prisoner exchanges, nuclear safety and food security.

A woman walks with a dog during a partial blackout in Kyiv on June 5. (Roman Pilipey/AFP/Getty Images)

Progress on other issues, such as energy security, was discussed in smaller working groups. Shortly after the summit, Qatar proposed the idea of an energy cease-fire and started discussing a potential plan with both sides, officials said. Ukrainian officials were receptive, they said, because they considered the talks as falling under Kyiv’s peace plan initiative and intended to involve partners in the energy security working group.

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Ukraine did not invite a Russian delegation to the peace summit in June, but Zelensky has said Moscow will be invited to the next one, which expected to be held this fall. Some Ukrainian officials and Western diplomats have viewed that step as a sign that Kyiv is now more open to considering negotiations with Russia.

Other Ukrainian officials have quickly pointed out that Ukraine has always been receptive to talks but demand that those discussions respect Ukraine’s full territorial integrity.

Some Russian analysts said Ukraine’s daring seizure of Russian territory in the Kursk region could hand Ukraine a powerful bargaining chip in any future negotiations with Russia, if the Ukrainian troops succeed in building fortifications to defend their position before a full-scale Russian counterattack.

“Putin has said many times that any peace agreement should take into account the facts on the ground and that Russia will not leave the territory it has taken,” said Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst.

Ukraine is trying “to break this formula and gain Russian territory to exchange,” he said.

 

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51 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

The subtitle of every Russian history book reads, "and then it got worse."  I wouldn't count on the next guy being any better, if history tells us anything with them, there is a greater chance he is more of a psycho. 

Putin is a dictator with consolidated power. Whomever follows him can be as crazy as they want. They are not going to have the infrastructure in place to ensure they stay in power, let alone continue an invasion

 

That person may well be worse than Putin in terms of the west’s interests. I don’t think Ukraine gives a fuck about that right now

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1 hour ago, B00M said:

He drives with his head against the steering wheel like an elderly woman. Given what we know about cyber trucks, there’s a good chance the frame breaks for no reason, the air bag punches him in his neck beard and kills him. 

And I doubt whatever he has the machine gun mounted on will hold up if it was fired.

And obviously there was no spare tire.  Brilliant strategy in showing off a truck with a machine gun on it, because nobody ever gets a flat in Russia.

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7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

The Ukrainian strikes were coordinated on an extremely professional level, using artillery, tanks, armored vehicles, drones and other aerial vehicles. Communication and tactics showed that Ukrainian forces mastered what is commonly known as maneuver warfare. At no stage in this war Russians ever employed this kind of professionalism. In addition, the discipline among Ukrainian soldiers not to use mobile phones and disclose communication as well as gains in territory left Russians (and the OSINT community) relatively in the dark. The Ukrainian silence in preparation and execution of this operation might be the most astounding factor in this campaign. It almost flawlessly worked. Operational Level Aside from the tactical cleverness Ukrainians showed to us so far, it was and still is also the way they moved into the Kursk region. While Russian forces are infamous in trying to reach and overcome heavily fortified cities, towns and villages, Ukrainians rather bypassed larger settlements, cut and intercept the rear and encircle Russian troop concentrations, and by doing so staying even more in the shadows. This probably enabled the capture of large numbers of Russian POWs who found themselves quickly behind lines. Estimations go as high as 2,000 Russian soldiers being captured, an number so high that it might even be a strain for Ukrainian logistics. But it is obvious that this alone has already made the operation worthwhile. Russians, however, employed the same mistakes they made when starting the full-scale war back in February 2022. Some large columns which were mustered, were not only detected by Ukrainian forces, but as with the instance in Rylsk completely destroyed.

However much training they had in the West, it paid off, and they seem to be operating on the same level as professional Western militaries. And Russia will probably never be able to pull off maneuver warfare at this point, given their lack of training these days, which is why they are struggling to counter it.  They keep doing the same shit they did in February of 2022 - run large columns into an area.

On a side note, it’d be great if word got out all over Russia to the mothers of conscripts that Chechens are shooting at teenaged Russian conscripts.

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

However much training they had in the West, it paid off, and they seem to be operating on the same level as professional Western militaries. And Russia will probably never be able to pull off maneuver warfare at this point, given their lack of training these days, which is why they are struggling to counter it.  They keep doing the same shit they did in February of 2022 - run large columns into an area.

On a side note, it’d be great if word got out all over Russia to the mothers of conscripts that Chechens are shooting at teenaged Russian conscripts.

It gets overlooked Ukraine participated in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Small sure, but they were there and observed the US and NATO coordination, communication, etc. That would be now at the higher ranks. Plus they saw how we utilized NCO's and that they are trained different than in the Soviet system. Yeah, I called it Soviet. Russia's army has not really changed since the fall of the USSR. Tactics, equipment, command philosophy, looting, sucking. All remains the same.

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In fact you are correct. Instead of a National Championship with no end date he has a war with no end date. Both armies love to cosplay, neither has won shit, and they both like the same style of architecture.
aggy=russia. FFS.

Has Putin jumped on the battlefield to ask Ukraine soldiers to fuck his wife too?
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7 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Did anyone else read that first tweet headline in the voice of the Law and Order guy?

on what planet would you believe a Russian promise not to attack your utilities as long as you quit attacking Russian oil and gas facilities?

If it’s difficult for a pathological liar to be believed in negotiations, maybe not being a pathological liar for the entire history of your country would be a good place to start.

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16 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

on what planet would you believe a Russian promise not to attack your utilities as long as you quit attacking Russian oil and gas facilities?

If it’s difficult for a pathological liar to be believed in negotiations, maybe not being a pathological liar for the entire history of your country would be a good place to start.

There are so many problems with that article and this "negotiation".  

1st -  Since when are the Qatari's the authority on human rights negotiation?  These guys killed thousands to have some soccer games.

2nd - Russia is a consistent bad faith actor (see the grain deal)

3rd - even if the power brokers realize that their biggest cash cow, oil and gas, is now in tremendous peril, any negotiating prompted by these guys could be overridden. 

Why should the Ukrainians even bother?  

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https://www.threads.net/@ghostoflviv_/post/C-yO5GMSyU8?xmt=AQGzvfGi0oUeSiqM_0GQRJ2eYQz9rJwwKqWjSNBEKFJy_g

Ukrainian forces have severely damaged the bridge crossing in Zvannoe, Kursk.

 

https://www.threads.net/@nickmelnick.osint/post/C-ycdHxI1jh?xmt=AQGzC92RdvkOp34dELCUw-d1z9S6avTkfvyZrKhQMDm0YQ

🇺🇦🇷🇺Another group of Russian soldiers in the Kursk region has been added to the Ukrainian exchange fund.
🤔I don't know how long they were hiding in these woods, but they definitely need to go to the hospital.

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(Assuming Musk actually gifted and/or caused the transport of a truck to Russia) I'm no expert on sanctions but Kadyrov is a sanctioned individual and a truck has to be considered a sanctioned product, so if what Kadyrov said is true, Musk could/should be well and good fucked. I hope we see some int'l law experts chiming in on bluesky or threads soon. 

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19 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So how do logistics chains work during the muddy season?

Long story short, they really don't in active combat areas, or if they do its really slow.  If you notice in all the rural areas of Ukraine, all the paved roads and railroads are elevated for to prevent this from being a problem under ordinary circumstances.  However, in the combat zone, or rather within in drone range, paved roads may as well be death sentences for anyone traveling on them as they are under constant surveillance.  So basically everything slows to a crawl.  

I remember watching the Ukrainians doing training with the Bradleys in the mud, basically it's a total quagmire.  So heavy vehicles, heavy equipment, etc, aren't going to fair well.  Lighter off road vehicles can get thru this sort of stuff with major difficulty, but obviously that means they can't haul nearly as much.  

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1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

Long story short, they really don't in active combat areas, or if they do its really slow.  If you notice in all the rural areas of Ukraine, all the paved roads and railroads are elevated for to prevent this from being a problem under ordinary circumstances.  However, in the combat zone, or rather within in drone range, paved roads may as well be death sentences for anyone traveling on them as they are under constant surveillance.  So basically everything slows to a crawl.  

I remember watching the Ukrainians doing training with the Bradleys in the mud, basically it's a total quagmire.  So heavy vehicles, heavy equipment, etc, aren't going to fair well.  Lighter off road vehicles can get thru this sort of stuff with major difficulty, but obviously that means they can't haul nearly as much.  

I guess it wasn’t obvious, but the question in this instance was meant to ask how Ukraine can support their Kursk  holdings after the muddy season slows/stops the active fighting. 

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15 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I guess it wasn’t obvious, but the question in this instance was meant to ask how Ukraine can support their Kursk  holdings after the muddy season slows/stops the active fighting. 

That's a great question, I would presume a combination of preparation, i.e. fortifications and supply caches within them, and then as they can.  It's not something covered a ton, probably because it doesn't involve explosions and what not, but it's what wins.  I'm sure part of the reason we don't see much of this is for protective purposes, and I'm sure there is some level of secret sauce to it.  

The one interesting aspect to all this is that apparently, the Soviets were more scared of end times than we ever were.  All thru Ukraine, there are fortified underground bunkers pretty much everywhere, so many, that there aren't even accurate records of where they all are (The Ukrainians have admitted they use those for Himars hosting, I would imagine logistics as well).  I'm gonna presume that this is also true in much of Russia, including the Kursk region.  I've already seen that the Ukrainians have seized some of these, including there weapons and tech, and those are probably just the ones they know about.  

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And I doubt whatever he has the machine gun mounted on will hold up if it was fired.
And obviously there was no spare tire.  Brilliant strategy in showing off a truck with a machine gun on it, because nobody ever gets a flat in Russia.

That stupid fucking thing can’t handle a water balloon.
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1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I guess it wasn’t obvious, but the question in this instance was meant to ask how Ukraine can support their Kursk  holdings after the muddy season slows/stops the active fighting. 

They will dig in. Judging by the flow of mechanized troops they are bringing the fucking house into orclandia.

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1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

They will dig in. Judging by the flow of mechanized troops they are bringing the fucking house into orclandia.

They can dig in, sure, but trenches flood. How about the supply chain bringing equipment they could not take with them? Food and clean water being two. Not sure there are a lot of good roads in that region for 4-5 months a year.

And would want to eat captured russian rations?

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