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49 minutes ago, B00M said:

With Modi trying to play both sides, making him think about the innocent Ukrainian children killed by the Russian Terrorist state he continues to fund is a great strategy. We’re either going to discover Modi is just as inhumane as Putin, or he’ll suddenly oppose buying cheap resources from Russia. I realize it’s not that simple, as Modi ultimately has to act in the best interest of India and they’re competing with China, but sometimes doing the right thing ends up being in your country’s best interest

Ask Muslims in India how much Modi gives a shit about innocents and children.  

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3 hours ago, JMFP said:

At this point I would be tempted to not blow up the Kerch Bridge and march on to Georgia to claim the whole coast line and southern part of Russia all the way to the Caspian.

image.png.dacc5224d34680ac856724d76993bf46.png

 

Realistically, it would probably mirror Kurst in the last 3 weeks. But it has the equivalent or cornering an apex predator, with a Halloween mask and plastic fangs.

And nukes.

Yeah, sanctions are one thing. Physically taking over their oil export assets is a different ball game.  That basically kills their economy. A stray missile or two, and the world economy is put in play.

Even with sanctions in place, more than half of Russia's pre-war exports are finding their way into the market place. Price is negotiable. Supply is not. 

image.thumb.png.6d7252a9bb04e0c3bb7c54f4cccf05ef.png 

Believe it. Or not. That is all that matters. To the US, China, Europe, SE Asia, to the industrialized world.

Like it or not, most will 'accept?' war crimes, as long as it isn't against them, and as long as their day to day life isn't impacted. 

But, once you've identified the end points, you know how far you can go before you get to the middle. Belgorod is well within that space.

"I'm gonna be watching you."

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So got the bad guys, freed some of the hostages? Oh, russian rescue. Also, why does the BBC show Ukraine in the map? Come on BBC, get your cartography shit together.

Four prison employees have been killed after prisoners staged a revolt in a Russian penal colony and took hostages, federal authorities say.

Special forces stormed the IK-19 Surovikino facility in the southwestern Volgograd region after knife-wielding prisoners, who identified themselves as Islamic State (IS) militants, claimed to have taken control of the sprawling complex.

Authorities said the special forces operation had freed some hostages and "neutralised" all the attackers, but later confirmed that four prison employees had died.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2yp4gg0z5o

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https://www.threads.net/@nickmelnick.osint/post/C_BWf1joi17?xmt=AQGzVf18MK4aeS_44-S-iHhq-op2ce6ZuLgBlicLJpxJWg

🇺🇦Ukrainian FPV drones are destroying 🇷🇺Russian vehicles near pontoon crossings in the Kursk region.

 

https://www.threads.net/@nafo_wrangler/post/C_ANTrDODOn?xmt=AQGzVf18MK4aeS_44-S-iHhq-op2ce6ZuLgBlicLJpxJWg

Ukrainian aviation operates on the Russian platoon base in the Kursk region

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Modi needs to worry about his own shit. Kashmir, border with China, rampant rape, hunger, all the wonders of India. Maybe stop buying russian shit? Already started with weapons, keep going with Oil.

The first visit by an Indian prime minister in modern Ukrainian history came at a volatile juncture in the war launched by Russia in February 2022. Moscow is making slow gains in eastern Ukraine as Kyiv presses a cross-border incursion.
 
The optics closely resembled the Indian leader's visit to Moscow last month where he called for peace and embraced Russian President Vladimir Putin, angering Ukraine, where a Russian missile strike hit a children's hospital on the same day.
"The road to resolution can only be found through dialogue and diplomacy. And we should move in that direction without wasting any time. Both sides should sit together to find a way out of this crisis," Modi said in Kyiv.
 
"I want to assure you that India is ready to play an active role in any efforts towards peace. If I can play any role in this personally, I will do that, I want to assure you as a friend," he said.
 
 
 
 
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https://www.threads.net/@mx_ukr/post/C_A8D5aJ4pD?xmt=AQGz6cgT-aRa0cbSbVSWecGD5hfu8NLDVnG2H7L4dmFkcg

Two major embassies have warned their nationals of an attack

 

^RuZZia is planning something

 

https://www.threads.net/@titusnation/post/C_BigXfSU09?xmt=AQGzIeGRUhTYlPPhRg8fKsfEeeunUhLWDYUZRkojuZEUqQ

🔥 The 46th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is halting a Russian offensive in the Donetsk region and destroying a tank and an infantry fighting vehicle.

 

 

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44 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.threads.net/@mx_ukr/post/C_A8D5aJ4pD?xmt=AQGz6cgT-aRa0cbSbVSWecGD5hfu8NLDVnG2H7L4dmFkcg

Two major embassies have warned their nationals of an attack

 

^RuZZia is planning something

 

https://www.threads.net/@titusnation/post/C_BigXfSU09?xmt=AQGzIeGRUhTYlPPhRg8fKsfEeeunUhLWDYUZRkojuZEUqQ

🔥 The 46th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is halting a Russian offensive in the Donetsk region and destroying a tank and an infantry fighting vehicle.

 

 

names china. Who is the other? Forget it, opened up the other link. Would think US would be forefront as a push for weapons.

Edited by InkaUtexas
i don't readd well sumtimes.
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Yes that is correct.  A war weary US populous and Patton's own hubris prevented that, on whole.  There were other factors, but the most notably Patton, as popular as he was with his own men, was equally disdained by the Brittish and basically forced into retirement.  That is one reason why his death was so eery.  Some believe it was a hit, I do not.  But he was not well liked and the command and control of that theatre was ready for him to go back to the states.

I don’t know man, but one could make the argument that this is but act three for that theater. One has to seriously ponder what could have been.
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4 hours ago, PTINS said:

image.png.dacc5224d34680ac856724d76993bf46.png

 

Realistically, it would probably mirror Kurst in the last 3 weeks. But it has the equivalent or cornering an apex predator, with a Halloween mask and plastic fangs.

And nukes.

Yeah, sanctions are one thing. Physically taking over their oil export assets is a different ball game.  That basically kills their economy. A stray missile or two, and the world economy is put in play.

Even with sanctions in place, more than half of Russia's pre-war exports are finding their way into the market place. Price is negotiable. Supply is not. 

image.thumb.png.6d7252a9bb04e0c3bb7c54f4cccf05ef.png 

Believe it. Or not. That is all that matters. To the US, China, Europe, SE Asia, to the industrialized world.

Like it or not, most will 'accept?' war crimes, as long as it isn't against them, and as long as their day to day life isn't impacted. 

But, once you've identified the end points, you know how far you can go before you get to the middle. Belgorod is well within that space.

"I'm gonna be watching you."

Dear Charlie:

your whole Kurt Bohls bit was epic, but this is war we're talking about here.

Thx,

wd

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36 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Johnny Carson Nbc 90Th Special GIF by NBC

 

LZ3 would be to keep the forces in Melitpol from rolling up on the troops west.

Blocking force over the Deniper would ensure that the force driving up from Armyasnk has to engage with the troops from Kherson proper instead of contesting the landings the at LZ1 and LZ2.

I did not expect the amphibious landings of LZ1&2 as a major salient, but they may be a token force or something of substance. It is hard to tell with something like this. Amphibious assaults and the required coordination at large scale are extremely hard to pull off and should be something that would be instantly sniffed out days before the attack due to the need to mass-landing craft/boats to be able to make a move in mass to be effective.  But the battle plan is pretty obvious. Hopefully, they noticed an approach to roll up many Russian troops dug in on the banks of the Dnieper and this is so obvious that if forces a withdrawal or a quick encirclement of the Russian troops and so this makes sense to attempt a major amphibious landing.

 

If this is true and is the real move and not a feint, godspeed, and good luck.

LZ 3 I think will be critical to tie up reserves.  God Speed.  

 

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1 hour ago, The Dog said:

image.thumb.jpeg.bd2674097bfed28f2b64b7975e650930.jpeg

 

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

Johnny Carson Nbc 90Th Special GIF by NBC

 

LZ3 would be to keep the forces in Melitpol from rolling up on the troops west.

Blocking force over the Deniper would ensure that the force driving up from Armyasnk has to engage with the troops from Kherson proper instead of contesting the landings the at LZ1 and LZ2.

I did not expect the amphibious landings of LZ1&2 as a major salient, but they may be a token force or something of substance. It is hard to tell with something like this. Amphibious assaults and the required coordination at large scale are extremely hard to pull off and should be something that would be instantly sniffed out days before the attack due to the need to mass-landing craft/boats to be able to make a move in mass to be effective.  But the battle plan is pretty obvious. Hopefully, they noticed an approach to roll up many Russian troops dug in on the banks of the Dnieper and this is so obvious that if forces a withdrawal or a quick encirclement of the Russian troops and so this makes sense to attempt a major amphibious landing.

 

If this is true and is the real move and not a feint, godspeed, and good luck.

 

46 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I cant tell what this is suggesting. 100 aircraft would be every single airframe Ukraine has, including transports and helicopters. 

Secret squirrel is prone to hyperbole and getting ahead of his skis. I'd take it with some salt for now.

Edited by KYHorn
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7 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

Secret squirrel is prone to hyperbole and getting ahead of his skis. I'd take it with some salt for now.

Not seeing anything else of yet, so yeah.  However, perhaps the urgency we are seeing in Russians attempting to offload fuel in Rostov is that the situation is getting desperate fuel wise at the front.  This coinciding with a Ukrainian attack would at least make some sense.  

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So I've been wondering for a while if the development of the Neptune as a cruise missile, rather than an anti ship missile is a bit of a work around for everyone.  The Ukrainians obviously have the knowledge on how to build one, but the secret sauce is the guidance.  I know these missiles use either internal navigation or satellite navigation to fly to their targets.  In lieu of giving the Ukrainians cruise missiles from the US (and approaching another bullshit red line), it would have to be easier to covertly give them either guidance data or access to nav satellites ("hey guys, if you happen to just modulate to this code at this time, the satellite will just happen to grant you access, wink, wink").  

I'm not trying to take away anything from the Ukrainians, as this all may well be wrong.  Either way, whenever this is all over, there will certainly be an interesting story to tell on the development of this.  Of course it will be years and years before it is ever told, but eventually it will be.  

In the short term, because this is a Ukrainian weapons platform, it gives them more stocks to hit within Russia, I hope they can build a lot of them quickly.  

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10 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Interesting @PTINS

I still have to think it wouldn't take too much to equip a drone with an RPG that fires upon contact with something like this.  You'd be trading payload for it, but the bomb is actually the fuel or gas.  


#1 drone rams the defenses

#2 drone does the same

#3 drone is the big boom

All happens in seconds 

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7 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

So I've been wondering for a while if the development of the Neptune as a cruise missile, rather than an anti ship missile is a bit of a work around for everyone.  The Ukrainians obviously have the knowledge on how to build one, but the secret sauce is the guidance. 

I get what you are saying, but it could be that it's because the capabilities/guidance for modern systems are evolving to a point where the targets don't really matter - for the Ukrainians it makes sense for them to make as few models as possible, to cut down on production costs and complexity.  We think it's nuts and wasteful that the Russians are using S-300s/S-400s to attack land targets for a lot of reasons (we wouldn't use Patriot missiles to do that) but from their point of view, it's easier to have one production line running than multiple.

I bring it up, because the US Navy will be doing the opposite and fielding anti-ship variants of the Tomahawk at some point this year.

https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/u-s-navy-plans-to-equip-submarines-with-anti-ship-tomahawk-missiles-in-2024-to-counter-china/

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4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


#1 drone rams the defenses

#2 drone does the same

#3 drone is the big boom

All happens in seconds 

I thought about that, there is one issue I can think of.  Assuming that you can accurately do a double tap might be a leap too far.  We don't really know the accuracy of this stuff, it's reasonable enough, but accurate to that level, I don't know.  The other potential issue is the assumption that both drones used in that sort of capacity have to successfully get thru whatever air defense they encounter, I wouldn't presume that as a given either.  

 

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I get what you are saying, but it could be that it's because the capabilities/guidance for modern systems are evolving to a point where the targets don't really matter - for the Ukrainians it makes sense for them to make as few models as possible, to cut down on production costs and complexity.  We think it's nuts and wasteful that the Russians are using S-300s/S-400s to attack land targets for a lot of reasons (we wouldn't use Patriot missiles to do that) but from their point of view, it's easier to have one production line running than multiple.

I bring it up, because the US Navy will be doing the opposite and fielding anti-ship variants of the Tomahawk at some point this year.

https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/u-s-navy-plans-to-equip-submarines-with-anti-ship-tomahawk-missiles-in-2024-to-counter-china/

The telling difference to me on the S300/400 strikes is that they aren't precision strikes, it's more like walking in mortar or artillery rounds, or so it seems.  They aren't overly accurate, in other words.  However, the recent strikes claimed with the Neptune (the ferry, and now the munitions warehouse) aren't scatter shot attempts, they are precision strikes.  That screams some level of onboard navigation, at least to me.  

I certainly get the point though on the practicality of keeping the number of variations way down for sake of assembly line production.  

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9 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I thought about that, there is one issue I can think of.  Assuming that you can accurately do a double tap might be a leap too far.  We don't really know the accuracy of this stuff, it's reasonable enough, but accurate to that level, I don't know.  The other potential issue is the assumption that both drones used in that sort of capacity have to successfully get thru whatever air defense they encounter, I wouldn't presume that as a given either.  

 

The telling difference to me on the S300/400 strikes is that they aren't precision strikes, it's more like walking in mortar or artillery rounds, or so it seems.  They aren't overly accurate, in other words.  However, the recent strikes claimed with the Neptune (the ferry, and now the munitions warehouse) aren't scatter shot attempts, they are precision strikes.  That screams some level of onboard navigation, at least to me.  

I certainly get the point though on the practicality of keeping the number of variations way down for sake of assembly line production.  


or 1 Jdam

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This is how you get Gen-Z on board.  Steam achievements (IYKYK)

 

Robert Magyar reveals details of a new program for Ukrainian drone pilots that offers financial rewards for hitting specific targets. The program also allows pilots to accumulate points, which can be converted into drone equipment for their units. The image shows a T-90 tank, which would earn the soldier who destroyed it a reward of 400,000 UAH (£7,500).
 

GVs2HL6WcAAcGe_?format=png&name=large

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5 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Secret squirrel is prone to hyperbole and getting ahead of his skis. I'd take it with some salt for now.

This guy has been pretty solid for the past few years.  Of course he maybe getting misinformation from somebody trying to steer the Ukrainians away from a landing (i.e. "we know what you are doing").

The flip side is that Ukraine could have watched them move air defense systems out of those areas and back into Russia proper to protect refineries, storage, or even Moscow, AND saw that Russia had no reserves (to send up to Kursk) and thought it was the right time to strike.

GVsmYDFXcAAU_P4?format=jpg&name=medium

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17 hours ago, PTINS said:

image.png.dacc5224d34680ac856724d76993bf46.png

 

Realistically, it would probably mirror Kurst in the last 3 weeks. But it has the equivalent or cornering an apex predator, with a Halloween mask and plastic fangs.

And nukes.

Yeah, sanctions are one thing. Physically taking over their oil export assets is a different ball game.  That basically kills their economy. A stray missile or two, and the world economy is put in play.

Even with sanctions in place, more than half of Russia's pre-war exports are finding their way into the market place. Price is negotiable. Supply is not. 

image.thumb.png.6d7252a9bb04e0c3bb7c54f4cccf05ef.png 

Believe it. Or not. That is all that matters. To the US, China, Europe, SE Asia, to the industrialized world.

Like it or not, most will 'accept?' war crimes, as long as it isn't against them, and as long as their day to day life isn't impacted. 

But, once you've identified the end points, you know how far you can go before you get to the middle. Belgorod is well within that space.

"I'm gonna be watching you."

Dr. Strangelove is on TCM | Movie/TV Board

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 "Ruslan, 42, deputy commander of the 68th brigade, which is defending the front lines around Pokrovsk, said he cannot remember such intense fighting at any other point since he was drafted to the military in the fall of 2022 from a coal mine where he used to work. In the last week alone, he said, his troops have retreated some six miles. His own hometown, Novohrodivka, is now the front line, he said."

@siobhan_ogrady @s_morgunov Tetiana Buranova
washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/…

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It’s wild how conventional warfare it’s being completely revised in real time.  The rise of drones, loss of relevance of main battle tanks, and change in artillery spotting and types.  It’s hyperbole, but it’s really revolutionary.  I would be shocked if there aren’t major doctrine changes in terms of our military composition for future land warfare coming out of this conflict.

 

 Some things clearly don’t change including the need for good NCOs and flexible unit sizes, but I’m marveling at Ukrainian ability to adapt, and the Russian stubbornness even when it’s obvious their shit is not working.  Given the disparity in manpower, it’s really pretty unbelievable.

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11 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Happy Prigozhin Day. Shoigu and Gerasimov receive the first grievances.

 

 

8 hours ago, BamaATL said:

So I've been wondering for a while if the development of the Neptune as a cruise missile, rather than an anti ship missile is a bit of a work around for everyone.  The Ukrainians obviously have the knowledge on how to build one, but the secret sauce is the guidance.  I know these missiles use either internal navigation or satellite navigation to fly to their targets.  In lieu of giving the Ukrainians cruise missiles from the US (and approaching another bullshit red line), it would have to be easier to covertly give them either guidance data or access to nav satellites ("hey guys, if you happen to just modulate to this code at this time, the satellite will just happen to grant you access, wink, wink").  

I'm not trying to take away anything from the Ukrainians, as this all may well be wrong.  Either way, whenever this is all over, there will certainly be an interesting story to tell on the development of this.  Of course it will be years and years before it is ever told, but eventually it will be.  

In the short term, because this is a Ukrainian weapons platform, it gives them more stocks to hit within Russia, I hope they can build a lot of them quickly.  

 

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I get what you are saying, but it could be that it's because the capabilities/guidance for modern systems are evolving to a point where the targets don't really matter - for the Ukrainians it makes sense for them to make as few models as possible, to cut down on production costs and complexity.  We think it's nuts and wasteful that the Russians are using S-300s/S-400s to attack land targets for a lot of reasons (we wouldn't use Patriot missiles to do that) but from their point of view, it's easier to have one production line running than multiple.

I bring it up, because the US Navy will be doing the opposite and fielding anti-ship variants of the Tomahawk at some point this year.

https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/u-s-navy-plans-to-equip-submarines-with-anti-ship-tomahawk-missiles-in-2024-to-counter-china/

 

20 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

👀

Today, President Zelenskyi announced the successful first combat use of the Ukrainian missile-drone “Palyanytsia.”

“It is a drone — and it is a missile, because according to its tactical and technical characteristics, the product falls under both definitions,” the ministry of strategic industries added

 IMG_20240824_083525.thumb.jpg.e12f0ad1e3dafc348566ac1198564fb6.jpg

Many folks are now saying this ammo storage strike might've actually been the Palyanytsia and not a Neptune. Not clear for now because the official release said the Palyanytsia strike was on a military facility in occupied territory, but that doesn't mean there weren't multiple.

Edited by KYHorn
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16 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

It’s wild how conventional warfare it’s being completely revised in real time.  The rise of drones, loss of relevance of main battle tanks, and change in artillery spotting and types.  It’s hyperbole, but it’s really revolutionary.  I would be shocked if there aren’t major doctrine changes in terms of our military composition for future land warfare coming out of this conflict.

 

 Some things clearly don’t change including the need for good NCOs and flexible unit sizes, but I’m marveling at Ukrainian ability to adapt, and the Russian stubbornness even when it’s obvious their shit is not working.  Given the disparity in manpower, it’s really pretty unbelievable.

Thing is, MBT's and artillery are still needed to take a fortified position. Its just that drones made concentrating forces much more difficult and operationally costly. It's definitely a sea change, but I don't see big armored guns going away any time soon

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1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

It’s wild how conventional warfare it’s being completely revised in real time.  The rise of drones, loss of relevance of main battle tanks, and change in artillery spotting and types.  It’s hyperbole, but it’s really revolutionary.  I would be shocked if there aren’t major doctrine changes in terms of our military composition for future land warfare coming out of this conflict.

 

 Some things clearly don’t change including the need for good NCOs and flexible unit sizes, but I’m marveling at Ukrainian ability to adapt, and the Russian stubbornness even when it’s obvious their shit is not working.  Given the disparity in manpower, it’s really pretty unbelievable.

I’m oddly (and pleasantly) surprised that a military culture who watched the western bloc emphasize mobile, nimble war-making for 70 years is waging war in the opposite manner. 
The Russian military have reinforced their military even deeper into a top-down, rather inefficient hierarchy even while watching the remarkable success of maneuver warfare demonstrated by Desert Storm.  They’ve had plenty of time, resources, and motivation to become more effective, but have not.

in particular, there seems to be zero emphasis from the Russians on the principles of surprise, morale, flexibility, sustainability, multi-level command cooperation or empowerment to make small group decisions.

As a point of discussion, how does the Russian societal and leadership culture keep the Russian military from evolving?  

-How much is it affected by the culture of corruption?  (I saw my predecessors game the system for personal gain, now it’s MY turn)

-Is there truly a technological use/development divide?

-are their nuclear forces as screwed up as their conventional military?

 

Edited by TeeDubya
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