Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[RPM 26185]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Find out an Iranian ship is loaded with anti-ship missiles and is heading the Houthi's way?  Sink that fucker.

Those damn Houthis can't tell their own weapons ship from a British tanker! Sank their own ship!

[bolverk 29360]

Full text below:

Senate

House

The newly introduced Stand with Ukraine Act aims to create a more constructive framework for US-Ukraine relations over the next 10 years. It's very strong, bipartisan and bicameral, and highlights include:

1. Makes 10-year bilateral security agreement law

“On June 13, 2024, the President of the United States and the President of Ukraine signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement, which Congress hereby endorses as an enduring framework between our two countries.”

Although Zelensky and Biden signed a treaty earlier this year, international treaties in the US do not become law unless ratified by Congress (typically Senate, though there are exceptions). This would make that treaty into law.

2. Grants State Department new authority to provide military aid

"The Secretary of State, in coordination with the Secretary of Defense, may make available to the Government of Ukraine, in such quantities as the Secretary of State considers appropriate for the purpose described in the Bilateral Security Agreement—

(1) weapons and other defense articles from the United States inventory and other sources; and
(2) defense services. "

This language is very similar to PDA (Presidential drawdown authority), by which the President can send weaponry from existing American stocks. This is the most useful kind of aid since PDA can arrive within days, unlike USAI which can take years since it consists of production orders placed with the American defense industry.

Essentially this would provide the State Department with the option of providing military aid to Ukraine if Congress doesn’t sufficiently pass PDA or if there is no more PDA left.

3. Prioritizing excess defense article transfer for Ukraine

Excess defense articles (EDA) is weaponry that the US no longer needs. The passing of this Act would result in the development of a 5-year plan to prioritize EDA transfers to Ukraine.

4. Fast tracking sales to Ukraine under foreign military sales program

Sec of State & Defense makes a list of available and emerging technologies that are pre-cleared and prioritized for sale and release to Ukraine through foreign military sales program

Aims to reduce delays caused by deliberations of what is allowed to be provided to Ukraine

Provides for the prioritization and expediting of aid to Ukraine

Asks for a report from Sec of State and Defense what actions were taken to prioritize sales to Ukraine

5. Treatment of Ukraine as Major non-NATO Ally

“Notwithstanding any other provision of law, Ukraine shall be treated as though it were designated a major non NATO ally”

Major non-NATO ally (MNNA) is a specific designation with numerous advantages. MNNAs include Israel, Australia, Japan, South Korea, etc.

6. Statement of policy regarding recovery and reconstruction in Ukraine

States that its the policy of the US to support Ukraine in building increased institutional, economic and social resilience, with a focus on reforms.

Early priority in energy, infrastructure, and demining

Focuses on private sector-led economy and integrating Ukraine into global markets

This aims to aid the recovery of Ukraine while reducing the likelihood of future Russian influence.

7. Loan and lease of defense articles

From 2025-2035, gives President lend-lease authority to Ukraine or Eastern flank countries. Although it was never used for Ukraine after its passing and has now expired, Lend-Lease can prove useful if Congress is opposed to further aid to Ukraine.

8. Depot maintenance strategic plan

Long-term maintenance and replacement of Ukraine’s depots of available weapons to repel future Russian aggression.

______________

Last week I was in DC to meet with representatives and discuss Ukraine. One of our key goals was to introduce them to the Stand With Ukraine Act, and ask them to co-sponsor it. Since then a lot of representatives have co-sponsored, and more will co-sponsor in the upcoming days.

Call your Representatives!

If your representative supports Ukraine and has not yet co-sponsored, please call their office and ask them to co-sponsor HR.9501 (in House) / S.4992 (in Senate).

Go to: govtrack.us

Enter your zip code on the left. You will get three names with three phone numbers to call

Below is a sample script that you can use while calling. Please feel free to add any details, such as additional reasons why the U.S. should continue to support Ukraine and why this issue is important to you. You can use this script for both speaking with a staffer or leaving a voicemail.

Hello! My name is [your name] and I live in [city, state]. My zip code is [zip code].

I am a Ukraine supporter. Recently a bicameral and bipartisan bill was introduced to create a more constructive framework for US-Ukraine relations over the next 10 years, and make aid for Ukraine both more efficient and predictable. I'm calling to ask [representative's name] to co-sponsor the Stand with Ukraine Act, [HR 9501 if calling a Representative, S 4992 if calling a Senator]. Thank you.

[MillerEP 30339]

https://www.threads.net/@kyivindependent_official/post/DAtsGZ_oKlS?xmt=AQGzFogT6qjSHGUfrSRysBqBmD1eAJXlzkE6EXZMsm2avA

⚡️ Russia lost more elite soldiers in 1 year near Vuhledar than in 10 years of Chechen War, BBC reports.
Russia's elite Marines have suffered four times higher losses during a year of fighting near Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast than during 10 years of the Second Chechen War, the BBC News Russia reported on Oct. 4.

 

https://www.threads.net/@nickmelnick.osint/post/DAtOnSJIFw2?xmt=AQGzFogT6qjSHGUfrSRysBqBmD1eAJXlzkE6EXZMsm2avA

⚡️Ukrainian intelligence eliminated the head of security of the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in the city of Enerhodar.
💥An explosive device went off in Andrei Korotky’s car.
After the plant was seized by Russian forces, Korotky handed them a list of the plant's employees, indicating their political views, and led the council of deputies as a member of the "United Russia" party.

[MillerEP 30339]

https://www.threads.net/@noelreports/post/DAtOCwGNbN7?xmt=AQGzFogT6qjSHGUfrSRysBqBmD1eAJXlzkE6EXZMsm2avA

Operators from the 412th Special Operations Battalion "NEMESIS" have successfully destroyed a Russian pontoon bridge in the Luhansk region.

 

https://www.threads.net/@stop_the_prop/post/DAtXPhOI2by?xmt=AQGzFogT6qjSHGUfrSRysBqBmD1eAJXlzkE6EXZMsm2avA

Yes, the Ruble is doing absolutely fine! 👀

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-oranges-trade-barter-pakistan-1962512

[MillerEP 30339]

https://www.threads.net/@nafo_wrangler/post/DAsN68Oqpeo?xmt=AQGzFogT6qjSHGUfrSRysBqBmD1eAJXlzkE6EXZMsm2avA

Himars strike in Kursk, from a Russian channel

 

https://www.threads.net/@noelreports/post/DAtY0EaN6Nq?xmt=AQGzFogT6qjSHGUfrSRysBqBmD1eAJXlzkE6EXZMsm2avA

More than 20 soldiers were killed as a result of an Oct. 3 missile strike on Russian-occupied territory near Donetsk, including six officers from North Korea, who came to confer with their Russian counterparts, Kyiv Post’s intelligence sources said. Three more North Korean servicemen were wounded.

[PTINS 3442]

13 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

From the videos, this looks like more of a fire at the storage of a refinery rather than just a remote oil depot. One can only hope. The geolocation provided is within a mile of the 260,000 Bbl/day Lukoil Perm refinery, ~ 975 miles from Kharkiv. That refinery is ~ 3 square miles in size, or 1,900 acres.

The round tanks (Horton spheres) are usually located where the products are produced (refineries or gas processing plants, high volume/footprint ratio) and not just stored (depots/terminals). You've heard me reference finding the guys (dead guys) camera when these Natural Gas Liquid tanks rupture.

Those plumes on the top of the tanks are indicative of a relief valve venting vapors from the top of the tank due to the pressure increase from the surrounding fires.  At some point, the vapors cannot vent fast enough to relieve the rising pressure, and ...big bada boom.

If the fireman is close enough to get water on the fire, he is way to close.

The sphere on the left engulfed in flames? Run, Forest, Run!!!

The long, cylindrical pressure vessels (not shown here) rupture into 3 pieces, hence the nickname, "bullets".

Not sure what is left when the spheres rupture, other than the camera.

Found this on the internet. This is a simulation; no idea on the size of the tank or the product in it. On the plot, LEL = Lower Explosion Limit (minimum fuel/air ratio for combustion). Red cloud, fuel/air ratio is too high for combustion. Orange = incomplete combustion. Yellow = huge fuel air bomb.

 

[TeeDubya 3358]

41 minutes ago, PTINS said:

If the fireman is close enough to get water on the fire, he is way to close.

fingers crossed.  FAFO

[KYHorn 16808]

18 hours ago, bolverk said:

Full text below:

Senate

House

The newly introduced Stand with Ukraine Act aims to create a more constructive framework for US-Ukraine relations over the next 10 years. It's very strong, bipartisan and bicameral, and highlights include:

1. Makes 10-year bilateral security agreement law

“On June 13, 2024, the President of the United States and the President of Ukraine signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement, which Congress hereby endorses as an enduring framework between our two countries.”

Although Zelensky and Biden signed a treaty earlier this year, international treaties in the US do not become law unless ratified by Congress (typically Senate, though there are exceptions). This would make that treaty into law.

2. Grants State Department new authority to provide military aid

"The Secretary of State, in coordination with the Secretary of Defense, may make available to the Government of Ukraine, in such quantities as the Secretary of State considers appropriate for the purpose described in the Bilateral Security Agreement—

(1) weapons and other defense articles from the United States inventory and other sources; and
(2) defense services. "

This language is very similar to PDA (Presidential drawdown authority), by which the President can send weaponry from existing American stocks. This is the most useful kind of aid since PDA can arrive within days, unlike USAI which can take years since it consists of production orders placed with the American defense industry.

Essentially this would provide the State Department with the option of providing military aid to Ukraine if Congress doesn’t sufficiently pass PDA or if there is no more PDA left.

3. Prioritizing excess defense article transfer for Ukraine

Excess defense articles (EDA) is weaponry that the US no longer needs. The passing of this Act would result in the development of a 5-year plan to prioritize EDA transfers to Ukraine.

4. Fast tracking sales to Ukraine under foreign military sales program

Sec of State & Defense makes a list of available and emerging technologies that are pre-cleared and prioritized for sale and release to Ukraine through foreign military sales program

Aims to reduce delays caused by deliberations of what is allowed to be provided to Ukraine

Provides for the prioritization and expediting of aid to Ukraine

Asks for a report from Sec of State and Defense what actions were taken to prioritize sales to Ukraine

5. Treatment of Ukraine as Major non-NATO Ally

“Notwithstanding any other provision of law, Ukraine shall be treated as though it were designated a major non NATO ally”

Major non-NATO ally (MNNA) is a specific designation with numerous advantages. MNNAs include Israel, Australia, Japan, South Korea, etc.

6. Statement of policy regarding recovery and reconstruction in Ukraine

States that its the policy of the US to support Ukraine in building increased institutional, economic and social resilience, with a focus on reforms.

Early priority in energy, infrastructure, and demining

Focuses on private sector-led economy and integrating Ukraine into global markets

This aims to aid the recovery of Ukraine while reducing the likelihood of future Russian influence.

7. Loan and lease of defense articles

From 2025-2035, gives President lend-lease authority to Ukraine or Eastern flank countries. Although it was never used for Ukraine after its passing and has now expired, Lend-Lease can prove useful if Congress is opposed to further aid to Ukraine.

8. Depot maintenance strategic plan

Long-term maintenance and replacement of Ukraine’s depots of available weapons to repel future Russian aggression.

______________

Last week I was in DC to meet with representatives and discuss Ukraine. One of our key goals was to introduce them to the Stand With Ukraine Act, and ask them to co-sponsor it. Since then a lot of representatives have co-sponsored, and more will co-sponsor in the upcoming days.

Call your Representatives!

If your representative supports Ukraine and has not yet co-sponsored, please call their office and ask them to co-sponsor HR.9501 (in House) / S.4992 (in Senate).

Go to: govtrack.us

Enter your zip code on the left. You will get three names with three phone numbers to call

Below is a sample script that you can use while calling. Please feel free to add any details, such as additional reasons why the U.S. should continue to support Ukraine and why this issue is important to you. You can use this script for both speaking with a staffer or leaving a voicemail.

Hello! My name is [your name] and I live in [city, state]. My zip code is [zip code].

I am a Ukraine supporter. Recently a bicameral and bipartisan bill was introduced to create a more constructive framework for US-Ukraine relations over the next 10 years, and make aid for Ukraine both more efficient and predictable. I'm calling to ask [representative's name] to co-sponsor the Stand with Ukraine Act, [HR 9501 if calling a Representative, S 4992 if calling a Senator]. Thank you.

Can we pin this @immamac

[immamac 42492]

No

[KYHorn 16808]

Thanks

[KYHorn 16808]

 Lots of different claims going around. These seem to be the most reliable.

 Interesting development with the downed in a friendly fire incident Russian aircraft this morning on the Donetsk front. With more videos of the wreckage and the moment of the crash now available, the consensus is that it was a Russian Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik-B stealth heavy unmanned combat aerial vehicle and not just a Su-25.

 

Some Russian reports claim they actually shot down their own Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik-B UAV - presumably because they lost control of it & didn't want it to crash in #Ukraine held territory. It's a giant unmanned stealth recon drone, with a wing span of 65ft - so easy to mistake as a fighter jet (2nd pic not related). 

 

Edited October 5 by KYHorn

[TeeDubya 3358]

Quote

Incredible Russian losses on the Pokrovsk front. Russia burned through over a tank division's worth of tanks and at least 4-5 mechanized division's worth of IFVs and APCs. All of that lost to advance a grand total of about 𝟑𝟎 𝐤𝐦 west of Avdiivka over the past eight months.

[KYHorn 16808]

Biden finally let Ukraine take the gloves off! 

 

[Party_Taco 3671]

Oh shit, they’re actually doing it?! Vodka supply issues will most certainly get the average Russian’s attention…

[ABSR 5289]

16 hours ago, PTINS said:

If the fireman is close enough to get water on the fire, he is way to close. air

 

If the fireman is using water and not foam to smother a fuel/oil fire he is both stupid and screwed.

[Parliament 14112]

26 minutes ago, Party_Taco said:

Oh shit, they’re actually doing it?! Vodka supply issues will most certainly get the average Russian’s attention…

Seems there's a Ukrainian war strategist lurking on this board.

[Armybrat 40678]

On 10/4/2024 at 4:05 PM, PTINS said:

From the videos, this looks like more of a fire at the storage of a refinery rather than just a remote oil depot. One can only hope. The geolocation provided is within a mile of the 260,000 Bbl/day Lukoil Perm refinery, ~ 975 miles from Kharkiv. That refinery is ~ 3 square miles in size, or 1,900 acres.

The round tanks (Horton spheres) are usually located where the products are produced (refineries or gas processing plants, high volume/footprint ratio) and not just stored (depots/terminals). You've heard me reference finding the guys (dead guys) camera when these Natural Gas Liquid tanks rupture.

Those plumes on the top of the tanks are indicative of a relief valve venting vapors from the top of the tank due to the pressure increase from the surrounding fires.  At some point, the vapors cannot vent fast enough to relieve the rising pressure, and ...big bada boom.

If the fireman is close enough to get water on the fire, he is way to close.

The sphere on the left engulfed in flames? Run, Forest, Run!!!

The long, cylindrical pressure vessels (not shown here) rupture into 3 pieces, hence the nickname, "bullets".

Not sure what is left when the spheres rupture, other than the camera.

Found this on the internet. This is a simulation; no idea on the size of the tank or the product in it. On the plot, LEL = Lower Explosion Limit (minimum fuel/air ratio for combustion). Red cloud, fuel/air ratio is too high for combustion. Orange = incomplete combustion. Yellow = huge fuel air bomb.

 

 

Edited October 6 by Armybrat
Messed up.

[Schulz2.0 28752]

 

[Schulz2.0 28752]

[B00M 6278]

3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

It’s odd that this needs to be explained, slowly, to so many people. 

[MillerEP 30339]

https://www.threads.net/@krundt/post/DAydPw6o08Q?xmt=AQGzBGPG01QTnJ3WqyhFBsPsSVsKxjaSjs7AJVuBIjBh5w

A message from Kenneth Gregg in Ukraine: (1/8) "Today I want to focus the economic front in russia, because this year they are spending 41% of the budget on the army and the FSB. This has major consequences on the economy and it is approaching the same figures as the Soviet Union had before the economic collapse.
A state that has a war economy and spends 41% on the war effort has a maximum of three years before everything collapses. +

2:"We should remember that 'Ivan' has a high pain threshold as long as it does not affect himself, but we are almost there. Of course, the russian economy is growing because the army is ordering new equipment and supplies such as food and diesel. In addition, there is a labor shortage which in turn drives up wages significantly. At the same time, 'Ivan' has to compete with the army for food and diesel, which have now risen by 30% since 2022. What is the concrete result of this? +

3:"The inflation will rise explosively. As export revenues fall, more rubles must be printed to finance army purchases.
Russia will spend USD 145 billion on the military and the FSB during 2025, while Ukraine will spend USD 54 billion of its own funds and two times more of donated funds from allies. What is the difference in how the economy reacts? The russian system is to be financed by own resources, and when they are not enough, more rubles are printed, which in turn feeds inflation. +

4:"Ukraine spends its own capital in line with a balanced state budget and receives two times more capital from outside, which does NOT hit the economy as hard as the russians.Let's have a quick look at US defense spending INCLUDING Ukraine aid. They spend 916 billion USD, which is 3.4% of GDP, russians spend 8.4% of their GDP. The US spends in USD 8 times more than russians but it is only 3.4% of GDP. Poland spends 3.4% and Finland 2.4%. +

5:"August inflation in russia was 9.1% and the central bank took all artificial measures to stop hyperinflation. They did a good job but the core problem remains: the government cannot stop spending.
Let me illustrate the problem with a simple example: The russian state increases the number of soldiers, they have to eat so the state goes to the food distributors to buy the rations and transport to the front. Because we have sanctions, the russians have a shortage of eggs, for example. +

6:"When the state buys lots of food rations, these are lost for the civilian population and prices rise. When we have a labor shortage, wages are driven up, which means that the state must also increase the monthly payments to its soldiers. During the winter, things get even more precarious and at best inflation remains at 15%, at worst it is over 20%. No economy in the world can cope with this. If inflation were to rise to 9% in the US, we would have unprecedented riots. +

7:"Putin is not stupid, he obviously realizes this as do the oligarchs. What he wants now is success in Donetsk and a ceasefire to counter the threat to himself when hyperinflation sets in. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, inflation in the new russia was 2000% on an annual basis. Whatever dictator you are, it will be your downfall when people have to carry a van full of notes to go to the shop and buy bread. +

8:"In addition, when calculating the GDP, you have to take into account the population decline of several million, so in fact the russian GDP has decreased significantly compared to normal conditions. Everyone, including the opponents of Ukrainian aid, agrees that the economy is what decides the war. Ukraine is in a better economic position than the russians because we get external help. Keep this up and the russians will have to end the war in 2025, giving us the victory we so need." END

https://www.threads.net/@jasonmcgruder1999/post/DAyn7jgyNn7?xmt=AQGzBGPG01QTnJ3WqyhFBsPsSVsKxjaSjs7AJVuBIjBh5w

Oil and gas prices aren’t helping.

[B00M 6278]

8 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.threads.net/@krundt/post/DAydPw6o08Q?xmt=AQGzBGPG01QTnJ3WqyhFBsPsSVsKxjaSjs7AJVuBIjBh5w

If inflation were to rise to 9% in the US, we would have unprecedented riots. +

They must mean other than June ‘22… or they mean sustained. Oddly specific at 9% either way

[atomheartbevo 89362]

24 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Putin is not stupid, he obviously realizes this as do the oligarchs. What he wants now is success in Donetsk and a ceasefire to counter the threat to himself when hyperinflation sets in. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, inflation in the new russia was 2000% on an annual basis. Whatever dictator you are, it will be your downfall when people have to carry a van full of notes to go to the shop and buy bread.

He’s not going to get a ceasefire - Ukraine has done too much prep work on their anti-air defenses, Crimea in general, and along the borders.  They have something big planned, bigger than Kursk.

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Perun does a deep dive on Russian nuclear doctrine and how it's changed over the past few years.

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Video about why some got it right and some didn't.

 

[B00M 6278]

I dig that giant nerd Anders Nielsen. I think the most important point he makes in that video is that Putin is not a rational actor from the eyes of the west because what Putin “knows” to be true is actually false.

This does give me pause, however, as Anders and others have very rationally explained why Putin would never use nukes… 

[MissingInAction 24765]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Video about why some got it right and some didn't.

 

Not from a forest in Colorado?

This video is invalid.

[SL Xpress 7504]

3 hours ago, B00M said:

I dig that giant nerd Anders Nielsen. I think the most important point he makes in that video is that Putin is not a rational actor from the eyes of the west because what Putin “knows” to be true is actually false.

This does give me pause, however, as Anders and others have very rationally explained why Putin would never use nukes… 

All I know is that given a long enough timeline nukes are going to be used someday given the level of proliferation and the fact that some people would rather destroy a thing if they can't have it. At this point it's an 80 year old technology, with enough widespread knowledge about how to create one. It just requires a lot of infrastructure to make enough of them to be a real deterrent more so than simply the biggest and most spectacular suicide bomb ever. There just needs to be some level of concurrence between such a personality having control over nuclear weapons and the people around them buying into their leadership, and then a set of circumstances where they'd rather blow up the world or at least some part of it damn the consequences. 

We're in a collective willful suspension of disbelief regarding this. Along with being hopeful maybe as a species we'll hold off until after we're all gone and then it can be somebody else's problem. I don't really believe it will be Putin, but it's going to be someone, so maybe it ends up being him. 

If we were truly serious as a species about preventing their use, the consequences for possessing them would be much more severe. Instead there are more countries than ever that possess them, and I don't believe the number is going to go down any time soon. Especially with the lesson learned from Ukraine. 

"Here, give us the nuclear weapons you currently possess, and in return we'll give you this piece of paper where several of us make very serious assurances about your sovereignty. We'll even pinky swear."

[SL Xpress 7504]

17 hours ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.threads.net/@krundt/post/DAydPw6o08Q?xmt=AQGzBGPG01QTnJ3WqyhFBsPsSVsKxjaSjs7AJVuBIjBh5w

A message from Kenneth Gregg in Ukraine: (1/8) "Today I want to focus the economic front in russia, because this year they are spending 41% of the budget on the army and the FSB. This has major consequences on the economy and it is approaching the same figures as the Soviet Union had before the economic collapse.
A state that has a war economy and spends 41% on the war effort has a maximum of three years before everything collapses. +

2:"We should remember that 'Ivan' has a high pain threshold as long as it does not affect himself, but we are almost there. Of course, the russian economy is growing because the army is ordering new equipment and supplies such as food and diesel. In addition, there is a labor shortage which in turn drives up wages significantly. At the same time, 'Ivan' has to compete with the army for food and diesel, which have now risen by 30% since 2022. What is the concrete result of this? +

3:"The inflation will rise explosively. As export revenues fall, more rubles must be printed to finance army purchases.
Russia will spend USD 145 billion on the military and the FSB during 2025, while Ukraine will spend USD 54 billion of its own funds and two times more of donated funds from allies. What is the difference in how the economy reacts? The russian system is to be financed by own resources, and when they are not enough, more rubles are printed, which in turn feeds inflation. +

4:"Ukraine spends its own capital in line with a balanced state budget and receives two times more capital from outside, which does NOT hit the economy as hard as the russians.Let's have a quick look at US defense spending INCLUDING Ukraine aid. They spend 916 billion USD, which is 3.4% of GDP, russians spend 8.4% of their GDP. The US spends in USD 8 times more than russians but it is only 3.4% of GDP. Poland spends 3.4% and Finland 2.4%. +

5:"August inflation in russia was 9.1% and the central bank took all artificial measures to stop hyperinflation. They did a good job but the core problem remains: the government cannot stop spending.
Let me illustrate the problem with a simple example: The russian state increases the number of soldiers, they have to eat so the state goes to the food distributors to buy the rations and transport to the front. Because we have sanctions, the russians have a shortage of eggs, for example. +

6:"When the state buys lots of food rations, these are lost for the civilian population and prices rise. When we have a labor shortage, wages are driven up, which means that the state must also increase the monthly payments to its soldiers. During the winter, things get even more precarious and at best inflation remains at 15%, at worst it is over 20%. No economy in the world can cope with this. If inflation were to rise to 9% in the US, we would have unprecedented riots. +

7:"Putin is not stupid, he obviously realizes this as do the oligarchs. What he wants now is success in Donetsk and a ceasefire to counter the threat to himself when hyperinflation sets in. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, inflation in the new russia was 2000% on an annual basis. Whatever dictator you are, it will be your downfall when people have to carry a van full of notes to go to the shop and buy bread. +

8:"In addition, when calculating the GDP, you have to take into account the population decline of several million, so in fact the russian GDP has decreased significantly compared to normal conditions. Everyone, including the opponents of Ukrainian aid, agrees that the economy is what decides the war. Ukraine is in a better economic position than the russians because we get external help. Keep this up and the russians will have to end the war in 2025, giving us the victory we so need." END

https://www.threads.net/@jasonmcgruder1999/post/DAyn7jgyNn7?xmt=AQGzBGPG01QTnJ3WqyhFBsPsSVsKxjaSjs7AJVuBIjBh5w

Oil and gas prices aren’t helping.

I would add that military spending by its nature is inherently inflationary because it does not add directly to greater productivity. It does add to greater productivity indirectly, but the same amount spent on military R&D and manufacturing versus civilian R&D, manufacturing and infrastructure should increase the latter economy more, all other things being equal. 

The only way for something akin to 41% spending on military to pay for itself is to take over the productive capacity or at the least leverage tribute from countries scared of the possible use of that military. But it's tough to make that work. Especially at those levels. And certainly Russia isn't successfully doing anything remotely like that. And at whatever time those military conquests and/or tribute payments stop or slow down, the whole mechanism falls apart. But Russia can skip the stop or slow down part and go directly to the fall apart aspect of it. 

But as long as other countries are assisting in a blowback to US hegemony, Russia can at least forestall the collapse to the extent that the other countries are helping. Obviously I'm thinking about China specifically. I just don't believe China has a blank check they're willing to give Russia. They're more like a loan shark looking to divvy up Russia's most productive assets to become a sort of long term vassal state than some kind of actual ally. And Iran and North Korea have their own significant economic issues. Maybe enough central and eastern European countries enter firmly into Russia's orbit as sympathetic political actors? But I don't believe that will happen, either. Many of the election results are worrying to me, but just because in countries like Austria the far right has gained a pluralistic majority, and the political philosophy continues to gain steam in many places, we're still a long ways off from those countries offering direct support. It's more like they become obstacles for putting more pressure on Russia and gum up the works in assisting Ukraine as a bloc. Which is important, but not helpful regarding Russia's inherent inflationary issues. 

[MillerEP 30339]

https://www.threads.net/@wbhgnews24/post/DAyo9druCOT?xmt=AQGzBGPG01QTnJ3WqyhFBsPsSVsKxjaSjs7AJVuBIjBh5w

We have a new turret toss record in Ukraine.
The Russian T-72 tank was on the Kreminna-Zarichne Road for reasons we'll never understand. Ukraine holds absolute fire control on the approach to Torske and Yampolivka, and as you can see, the road goes through open fields.
Since November 2022, Russia has suffered catastrophic losses of personnel and equipment here.
Estimated height of turret toss, 276 feet - 84 meters, beating the April 2022 record of 76 meters set in Mariupol.

 

^New record?

 

[MillerEP 30339]

https://www.threads.net/@kyivindependent_official/post/DA0uG2YIZUF?xmt=AQGzhrYw5_Idk3U9Uvy8XeB5aEPT_MKa754fxldcyoAkeg

⚡️ Russian Baltic Sea Fleet vessel out of action after Ukraine's sabotage, intelligence says.
The Russian Baltic Fleet minesweeper Alexander Obukhov was put out of action thanks to a sabotage operation by Ukraine's military intelligence, the agency said on Oct. 7.

 

https://www.threads.net/@barrykatz41/post/DAzYVp1Oz8v?xmt=AQGzhrYw5_Idk3U9Uvy8XeB5aEPT_MKa754fxldcyoAkeg

Damn, the drone made it to Moscow.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40103

[B00M 6278]

5 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

All I know is that given a long enough timeline nukes are going to be used someday given the level of proliferation and the fact that some people would rather destroy a thing if they can't have it. At this point it's an 80 year old technology, with enough widespread knowledge about how to create one. It just requires a lot of infrastructure to make enough of them to be a real deterrent more so than simply the biggest and most spectacular suicide bomb ever. There just needs to be some level of concurrence between such a personality having control over nuclear weapons and the people around them buying into their leadership, and then a set of circumstances where they'd rather blow up the world or at least some part of it damn the consequences. 

We're in a collective willful suspension of disbelief regarding this. Along with being hopeful maybe as a species we'll hold off until after we're all gone and then it can be somebody else's problem. I don't really believe it will be Putin, but it's going to be someone, so maybe it ends up being him. 

If we were truly serious as a species about preventing their use, the consequences for possessing them would be much more severe. Instead there are more countries than ever that possess them, and I don't believe the number is going to go down any time soon. Especially with the lesson learned from Ukraine. 

"Here, give us the nuclear weapons you currently possess, and in return we'll give you this piece of paper where several of us make very serious assurances about your sovereignty. We'll even pinky swear."

Once the technological cat is out of the bag, there’s really no putting it back. At best, you can hope brain drain and time eliminates the capability, but the ability to bluff will remain for decades (Russia?).

What much more severe consequences would you impose on countries we wish wouldn’t have nukes? Wouldn’t those severe consequences simply hasten their use? 

[MillerEP 30339]

https://www.threads.net/@noelreports/post/DA0vpCIt3bg?xmt=AQGzjmoaDUYYz-pZzMU8uZoL584imNI1kcqNcNqz8SeBGw

The oil terminal in Feodosia, occupied Crimea, keeps burning hours after it was struck by Ukrainian drones/missiles.

 

^Putin's Birthday present?

 

https://www.threads.net/@meanwhile_in_ua/post/DA0E_EHMnn4?xmt=AQGzcIi7rjeWb2nU4W89dBOib0TgX9B8yxQmPBe8APO8xQ

The Ukrainian Air Force has finally received F-16 fighters from Denmark and the Netherlands, marking a significant step in strengthening the country’s defense capabilities. Thanks to the steadfast support of these two nations, Ukraine will be able to enhance its air power and better protect its skies from russian aggression

[cactusflinthead 27593]

Girkin is reported to be dead in prison 

 

[aggie08 21380]

Of all the luck! He must have tripped and fallen into some incredibly unfortunately placed piano wire.

[Deej 76511]

26 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Girkin is reported to be dead in prison 

 

Good

[Sawbonz 27375]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

Girkin is reported to be dead in prison 

 

[TeeDubya 3358]

1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

Of all the luck! He must have tripped and fallen into some incredibly unfortunately placed piano wire.

Tripped, fallen through an upper floor window, and into piano wire.  

[bolverk 29360]

1 minute ago, TeeDubya said:

Tripped, fallen through an upper floor window, and into piano wire...

while drinking polonium tea.

[BamaATL 16592]

Well, he was into Revolution reenactments, so it would be more appropriate if he "fell" on an ice axe (Trostkied)

[Parliament 14112]

2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Girkin is reported to be dead in prison 

 

Say hi to Epstein for me, asshole!

[cactusflinthead 27593]

Oops wrong thread 

Edited October 8 by cactusflinthead

[SL Xpress 7504]

10 hours ago, B00M said:

Once the technological cat is out of the bag, there’s really no putting it back. At best, you can hope brain drain and time eliminates the capability, but the ability to bluff will remain for decades (Russia?).

What much more severe consequences would you impose on countries we wish wouldn’t have nukes? Wouldn’t those severe consequences simply hasten their use? 

Well, in my ideal world the consequences would be as severe as necessary, including annihilation, if that's what it took. I feel like the threat from nuclear weapons - specifically ICBMs - and their eventual use is that dangerous and existential. I would argue if the US chose to be the only country to keep their nukes the rest of the world should band together to completely isolate us. But if they can't be eliminated entirely - which they can't - then certainly the fewer countries that have them the better, and the odds increase for the species' survival without suffering through a nuclear holocaust.

My view is not based on a 10 year, 20 year, 50 year, or 80 year timeline. In many ways the build up of nuclear arsenals has done the world a lot of good. I'm not saying it's a good thing, but it's a mixed bag and it's certainly been THE key factor in preventing a worldwide conflagration the likes of which we saw during WWII. 

But over a 100 year, 200 year, 500 year time span I view the use of nuclear weapons inevitable unless the consequences for possessing them are much more severe than they currently are. We have our incentivization for the collective species reversed, where our tribes are encouraged to possess nuclear weapons because of a demonstrable security and stability for our nation states. For the species as a whole that incentivization should be the other way, to whatever degree is necessary. 

But this is fanciful blathering on my part. I'm posting on a message board anonymously. If I was secretary of state or a foreign minister somewhere I would have to mend my message in many ways. I still think the core of it is compelling on some level - that along a long enough time line the use of nuclear weapons is inevitable, and nuclear proliferation is a much more serious, important, and existential issue than we choose to collectively acknowledge, with Ukraine a key test case for why any efforts at reversing the trend will end in failure - and I wish the public dialogue reflected that. Not that it's absent, but it's not as draconian as I'd prefer. 

We're not really geared as a species to be fully pro active. We need a catastrophe to galvanize us in a specific direction, because without it, being proactive can feel like a waste of collective effort to significant portions of the population. Even a catastrophe can produce mixed reactions, so it often has to be really bad to truly galvanize an entire community. "The party doesn't end unless it ends badly."

So maybe there's a limited nuclear war somewhere - e.g. Pakistan and India - and that shifts the thinking into a much more radical perspective without ending the species and/or life on the planet. I'm not hoping for it, mind you. Frankly, I'm hoping we help Ukraine win this war and they win their sovereignty from Russia, and Russia pays a huge price for their invasion. I don't think that makes nation states reconsider their level of safety even without nuclear weapons, but the better Ukraine does, the less empty the Budapest memorandum seems. To me at least. It's unconscionable to me that Ukraine is being punished so severely for handing over their nuclear weapons. It's heading in the exact opposite direction we should be as a species. 

[SL Xpress 7504]

11 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Girkin is reported to be dead in prison 

 

 

He has that Donald Sutherland in Invasion of the Body Snatchers look to him. 

[B00M 6278]

34 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Well, in my ideal world the consequences would be as severe as necessary, including annihilation, if that's what it took. I feel like the threat from nuclear weapons - specifically ICBMs - and their eventual use is that dangerous and existential. I would argue if the US chose to be the only country to keep their nukes the rest of the world should band together to completely isolate us. But if they can't be eliminated entirely - which they can't - then certainly the fewer countries that have them the better, and the odds increase for the species' survival without suffering through a nuclear holocaust.

My view is not based on a 10 year, 20 year, 50 year, or 80 year timeline. In many ways the build up of nuclear arsenals has done the world a lot of good. I'm not saying it's a good thing, but it's a mixed bag and it's certainly been THE key factor in preventing a worldwide conflagration the likes of which we saw during WWII. 

But over a 100 year, 200 year, 500 year time span I view the use of nuclear weapons inevitable unless the consequences for possessing them are much more severe than they currently are. We have our incentivization for the collective species reversed, where our tribes are encouraged to possess nuclear weapons because of a demonstrable security and stability for our nation states. For the species as a whole that incentivization should be the other way, to whatever degree is necessary. 

But this is fanciful blathering on my part. I'm posting on a message board anonymously. If I was secretary of state or a foreign minister somewhere I would have to mend my message in many ways. I still think the core of it is compelling on some level - that along a long enough time line the use of nuclear weapons is inevitable, and nuclear proliferation is a much more serious, important, and existential issue than we choose to collectively acknowledge, with Ukraine a key test case for why any efforts at reversing the trend will end in failure - and I wish the public dialogue reflected that. Not that it's absent, but it's not as draconian as I'd prefer. 

We're not really geared as a species to be fully pro active. We need a catastrophe to galvanize us in a specific direction, because without it, being proactive can feel like a waste of collective effort to significant portions of the population. Even a catastrophe can produce mixed reactions, so it often has to be really bad to truly galvanize an entire community. "The party doesn't end unless it ends badly."

So maybe there's a limited nuclear war somewhere - e.g. Pakistan and India - and that shifts the thinking into a much more radical perspective without ending the species and/or life on the planet. I'm not hoping for it, mind you. Frankly, I'm hoping we help Ukraine win this war and they win their sovereignty from Russia, and Russia pays a huge price for their invasion. I don't think that makes nation states reconsider their level of safety even without nuclear weapons, but the better Ukraine does, the less empty the Budapest memorandum seems. To me at least. It's unconscionable to me that Ukraine is being punished so severely for handing over their nuclear weapons. It's heading in the exact opposite direction we should be as a species. 

I’m sorry I asked. 

[SL Xpress 7504]

8 minutes ago, B00M said:

I’m sorry I asked. 

I get that often.

[Chad Fuck 17503]

Oops wrong thread 

Is there ever a wrong thread for this savvy red head?

[Trey3216 15325]

19 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

I would add that military spending by its nature is inherently inflationary because it does not add directly to greater productivity. It does add to greater productivity indirectly, but the same amount spent on military R&D and manufacturing versus civilian R&D, manufacturing and infrastructure should increase the latter economy more, all other things being equal. 

The only way for something akin to 41% spending on military to pay for itself is to take over the productive capacity or at the least leverage tribute from countries scared of the possible use of that military. But it's tough to make that work. Especially at those levels. And certainly Russia isn't successfully doing anything remotely like that. And at whatever time those military conquests and/or tribute payments stop or slow down, the whole mechanism falls apart. But Russia can skip the stop or slow down part and go directly to the fall apart aspect of it. 

But as long as other countries are assisting in a blowback to US hegemony, Russia can at least forestall the collapse to the extent that the other countries are helping. Obviously I'm thinking about China specifically. I just don't believe China has a blank check they're willing to give Russia. They're more like a loan shark looking to divvy up Russia's most productive assets to become a sort of long term vassal state than some kind of actual ally. And Iran and North Korea have their own significant economic issues. Maybe enough central and eastern European countries enter firmly into Russia's orbit as sympathetic political actors? But I don't believe that will happen, either. Many of the election results are worrying to me, but just because in countries like Austria the far right has gained a pluralistic majority, and the political philosophy continues to gain steam in many places, we're still a long ways off from those countries offering direct support. It's more like they become obstacles for putting more pressure on Russia and gum up the works in assisting Ukraine as a bloc. Which is important, but not helpful regarding Russia's inherent inflationary issues. 

I'm gonna have to say I disagree here to an extent.   You have to remember some of the one-off items that were researched and built initially for military use, like computers, and see that those dollars have almost infinitely multiplied their initial research investments.  Yes, most big ticket items don't resort in that kind of multiple, but you have to factor all of it in if you're going to make a blanket statement regarding R&D multiples.   

Edited October 8 by Trey3216

[MissingInAction 24765]

Russian slap dicks will nuke themselves by "accident" before anyone else.

 

[ABSR 5289]

21 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

If we were truly serious as a species about preventing their use, the consequences for possessing them would be much more severe. Instead there are more countries than ever that possess them, and I don't believe the number is going to go down any time soon. Especially with the lesson learned from Ukraine. 

"Here, give us the nuclear weapons you currently possess, and in return we'll give you this piece of paper where several of us make very serious assurances about your sovereignty. We'll even pinky swear."

You mean like Ukraine did when they relinquished all their nukes to Russia for concessions and agreement of sovereignty?   Not sure the lesson learned from this is to give up your nukes and it will make your country more secure.