Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Saint Austin 745]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

FIFY. And ukraine keeps the Kursk salient. What about rebuilding? So Ukraine gets a fucked nation? Toothless peacekeepers? EU should tell Trump nah, we are not doing that.

This was set up to fail and not be accepted, giving the administration the argument of see, we tried.

 

Don't get me wrong, I want Ukraine to take back the entire Donbas and Crimea, too, but I'm not sure for how long how feasible that will be.

[Captainant 27515]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

FIFY. And ukraine keeps the Kursk salient. What about rebuilding? So Ukraine gets a fucked nation? Toothless peacekeepers? EU should tell Trump nah, we are not doing that.

This was set up to fail and not be accepted, giving the administration the argument of see, we tried.

Unsurprisingly, President Zelensky agrees with you

Speaking to European leaders at a summit in Hungary, Zelenskyy blasted those who were pressuring him to give in to some of Putin's hardline demands.

"There has been much talk about the need to yield to Putin, to back down, to make some concessions," Zelenskyy said, according to a copy of the address provided to AFP by the Ukrainian presidency.

"It's unacceptable for Ukraine and suicidal for all Europe," he added.

He also accused some European leaders, without specifying which ones, of "strongly" pushing Ukraine to compromise.

"We need sufficient weapons, not support in talks. Hugs with Putin won't help. Some of you have been hugging him for 20 years, and things are only getting worse," Zelenskyy said.

[InkaUtexas 25599]

1 minute ago, Saint Austin said:

Don't get me wrong, I want Ukraine to take back the entire Donbas and Crimea, too, but I'm not sure for how long how feasible that will be.

Let Russia keep Donbas if need be. Not Crimea. And trade Donbas for Kursk.

[MillerEP 30376]

The plan specifically says no US or UN oversight? So what exactly is stopping him from re-arming and just re-attacking with a better plan again? I sincerely hope they either drastically modify that deal or decline it altogether. Ukraine has been burned way too many times to trust Putin to not just ignore any deals again. 

[InkaUtexas 25599]

OSCE led EU deployed monitoring force. Same one that was there from 2014 up to the invasion. OSCE is still in Ukraine. Russia did not let them over the border much.

[Brisketexan 104785]

8 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

The plan specifically says no US or UN oversight? So what exactly is stopping him from re-arming and just re-attacking with a better plan again?

What is to stop him from doing that?

Nothing.

Which is exactly why that is the plan being proposed.

[27-25 2043]

Unfortunately, the Donbas and Crimea may never be retaken, barring a complete collapse of Russia.  I don't like that at all.  But it just doesn't look probable.

But if anyone is going to talk about territorial concessions (and even then only with REAL safeguards in place, which this proposal does not seem to have), then both banks of the Dnieper River MUST be under Ukrainian control.  They need to be able to ship their agricultural products out without Russian fuckery and interference.  So at least part of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia territory needs to be returned to Ukraine.

[Schulz2.0 28863]

One less Ka-52.

[bolverk 29486]

Russian Army Major General Klimenko Killed in Ukraine

Russian Army Major General Pavel Klimenko, who commanded the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, was killed in Ukraine.

The death of 47-year-old Klymenko was first reported by the Russsian pro-war bloggers.

The Russian online media Vazhnye Istorii managed to confirm the identities of his sisters, who commented on Klimenko’s death on social media.

The General’s sister, Kateryna Klymenko, also confirmed in a conversation with Russian media ASTRA that he had died.

Sister Iryna left condolences in the comments to the post.

Klymenko was accused of organizing torture and collecting money from his subordinates for sending them to the rear. The circumstances of his death are unknown.

According to ASTRA’s investigation, Klymenko organized the torture of Russian military servicemen on the territory of an abandoned mine in occupied Donetsk.

They were forced to agree to participate in assault groups, and money was extorted from them.

Some Russian bloggers criticized Klimenko for the high casualties.

There were claims that soldiers in his unit could pay a bribe to be reassigned to the rear.

In the comments on a post about his death in a social media group, dozens of messages—likely from relatives of other deceased Russian soldiers—criticized the general. The post has since been deleted.

Russia has confirmed the deaths of seven generals in Ukraine over the two years of full-scale war. In fact, the Russian army’s losses among generals may be higher. In 2023, it became known that Russian Major General Sergei Goryachev was eliminated as a result of successful actions by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

[bolverk 29486]

I'm only posting a portion of the article because if I posted more, it would be seen by some as CR and not news. Click the free link for more: https://archive.is/KokUH 

 

Ukraine Now Faces a Nuclear Decision
(original article: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/07/ukraine-now-faces-a-nuclear-decision/)

Last month, with little fanfare, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made the stakes of the ongoing war in Ukraine as clear as possible. With Russian troops bearing down on Ukraine’s east, and with Western support continuing to flag, Zelensky clarified the potential outcomes of the war. “Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons and that will be our protection or we should have some sort of alliance,” he said. “Apart from NATO, today we do not know any effective alliances.”

It was the first time the Ukrainian president had revealed an outcome that has become, for the war’s observers, increasingly inescapable. In this war for Ukraine’s survival, with Kyiv facing both declining men and materiel, the only surefire way of preventing Ukraine’s ongoing destruction is NATO membership—a reality that has gained more supporters since the war’s beginning but still remains years away. Barring such an outcome, as Zelensky outlined, only one option remains: developing Ukraine’s own nuclear arsenal and returning it to the role of a nuclear power that it gave up some three decades ago.

For Western interlocutors, Zelensky’s revelation may have come as a shock. But for anyone paying attention to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s accelerating designs, the revelation that Kyiv may pursue its own nuclear arsenal is anything but. Putin, after all, has only grown increasingly messianic and monomaniacal in his efforts to shatter Ukraine. Previous designs on simply toppling Kyiv have given way to outright efforts to “destroy Ukrainian statehood,” especially following Ukraine’s successful occupation in Russia’s Kursk region, as the Moscow Times recently reported. With Ukrainian statehood—and even Ukrainian identity, given Russia’s genocidal efforts—at stake, any nation would understandably pursue any option available for survival.

Perhaps more importantly, Zelensky is resurfacing an important part of Ukrainian history that many in the West seem to have forgotten but that the West bears significant responsibility for. In the aftermath of the Soviet collapse, Ukraine emerged as one of a handful of nations to claim a segment of the Soviet nuclear arsenal. And almost immediately, the United States and Russia led a joint effort to strip Ukraine of its new weapons, succeeding in 1994 via the now infamous Budapest Memorandum. It was a move that, at the time, resulted in rounds of condescending self-congratulation around Washington—and that, in time, set the stage for Russia’s later invasion of Ukraine. Now, as Zelensky has made clear, that bill is coming due—and the West now faces the option of finally welcoming Ukraine into NATO’s ranks or risking it becoming a nuclear power once more.

[956 Worldwide 34518]

Thanks, @InkaUtexas for tagging me.  I know I’ve dipped from this thread.  This might be my last post in here. 
 

In early March 2022 I was in deep southeastern Poland.  So deep that it wasn’t always really Poland. I was there with the grandmas and the kids with cats in their arms and the moms trying to carry all their luggage.  I caught my first case of COVID in a World Central Kitchen outpost. 
 

I really haven’t left there and every day since has brought Ukraine to me. 
 

This is true: Ukraine is heading towards a loss in this war, whether faster or slower.  I did not say that Russia will win, but Ukraine is heading for a loss. That is where the road heads.  Ukraine is smaller, Russia is bigger, and Putin wants Ukraine to lose more than we want it to win.  It’s a math equation now.
 

I have never been more proud of being an American than I was in March 2022 but since the about the summer of 2023, all that has been whittled away down to nothing.  2022 was the purest test of whether America wanted to be America since 1941.  We failed. Many of us don’t want to be America anymore, and many of those who want to be America are not brave enough to actually do it.  I don’t know who makes me angrier, except maybe myself. 
 

The Poles and the Balts and the Czechs are better Americans than we are but they just don’t have enough.  Sometimes only America can be America.  
 

This has consumed my life for almost 1000 days, and it will continue to consumer it until it ends one way or another.  I’ll keep at it, but I can’t look at my Ukrainian friends in the eyes anymore and I can’t write about it anymore. 

[InkaUtexas 25599]

21 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Thanks, @InkaUtexas for tagging me.  I know I’ve dipped from this thread.  This might be my last post in here. 
 

In early March 2022 I was in deep southeastern Poland.  So deep that it wasn’t always really Poland. I was there with the grandmas and the kids with cats in their arms and the moms trying to carry all their luggage.  I caught my first case of COVID in a World Central Kitchen outpost. 
 

I really haven’t left there and every day since has brought Ukraine to me. 
 

This is true: Ukraine is heading towards a loss in this war, whether faster or slower.  I did not say that Russia will win, but Ukraine is heading for a loss. That is where the road heads.  Ukraine is smaller, Russia is bigger, and Putin wants Ukraine to lose more than we want it to win.  It’s a math equation now.
 

I have never been more proud of being an American than I was in March 2022 but since the about the summer of 2023, all that has been whittled away down to nothing.  2022 was the purest test of whether America wanted to be America since 1941.  We failed. Many of us don’t want to be America anymore, and many of those who want to be America are not brave enough to actually do it.  I don’t know who makes me angrier, except maybe myself. 
 

The Poles and the Balts and the Czechs are better Americans than we are but they just don’t have enough.  Sometimes only America can be America.  
 

This has consumed my life for almost 1000 days, and it will continue to consumer it until it ends one way or another.  I’ll keep at it, but I can’t look at my Ukrainian friends in the eyes anymore and I can’t write about it anymore. 

Hang in there. There are a few places I will never shake off. And few understand that sentiment.

You got this. Fight like a Ukrainian.

[atomheartbevo 89503]

I don't mean to derail, but came across this little talk about the cultural difference between Russia and the West.

 

From about a year ago:

 

[Parliament 14156]

10 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Thanks, @InkaUtexas for tagging me.  I know I’ve dipped from this thread.  This might be my last post in here. 
 

In early March 2022 I was in deep southeastern Poland.  So deep that it wasn’t always really Poland. I was there with the grandmas and the kids with cats in their arms and the moms trying to carry all their luggage.  I caught my first case of COVID in a World Central Kitchen outpost. 
 

I really haven’t left there and every day since has brought Ukraine to me. 
 

This is true: Ukraine is heading towards a loss in this war, whether faster or slower.  I did not say that Russia will win, but Ukraine is heading for a loss. That is where the road heads.  Ukraine is smaller, Russia is bigger, and Putin wants Ukraine to lose more than we want it to win.  It’s a math equation now.
 

I have never been more proud of being an American than I was in March 2022 but since the about the summer of 2023, all that has been whittled away down to nothing.  2022 was the purest test of whether America wanted to be America since 1941.  We failed. Many of us don’t want to be America anymore, and many of those who want to be America are not brave enough to actually do it.  I don’t know who makes me angrier, except maybe myself. 
 

The Poles and the Balts and the Czechs are better Americans than we are but they just don’t have enough.  Sometimes only America can be America.  
 

This has consumed my life for almost 1000 days, and it will continue to consumer it until it ends one way or another.  I’ll keep at it, but I can’t look at my Ukrainian friends in the eyes anymore and I can’t write about it anymore. 

The hope in my head is that Russia falls apart sooner, not later.  And I know that's unlikely.  Sucks.

[Chad Fuck 17590]

I don't mean to derail, but came across this little talk about the cultural difference between Russia and the West.
[/url]  
From about a year ago:
 

Can you give us the tl; dr version?

I know you post good stuff, but I got shit I gotta do today.

[Trey3216 15325]

16 hours ago, Saint Austin said:

I wouldn't have a problem postponing Ukraine's membership in NATO if it meant Russia returning to the 2022 borders, but this deal sucks.

This deal sucks, but it's a deal that neither side will take (which was the intent).   Russia for sure wouldn't touch this deal.  They sure is shit don't want the Polish army stationed in a DMZ.  

My look on this is that it keeps the weapons flowing and actually advances the pace.  Russia won't get a better deal than this, and will have to settle for their country collapsing or restoration of at best 2022 borders and preferably 2014 borders.  

[InkaUtexas 25599]

2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

This deal sucks, but it's a deal that neither side will take (which was the intent).   Russia for sure wouldn't touch this deal.  They sure is shit don't want the Polish army stationed in a DMZ.  

My look on this is that it keeps the weapons flowing and actually advances the pace.  Russia won't get a better deal than this, and will have to settle for their country collapsing or restoration of at best 2022 borders and preferably 2014 borders.  

This would not be the Polish army. I would be a small sliver. Maybe a regiment. Probably a battalion. Same with the other NATO countries. It would be an observer mission with no teeth. Add in that the Poles or really any EU Nations have seen combat since 1945 except supporting our missions in Iraq and Afghanistan. And then most were only special ops teams.

Putin won't take it. He cannot admit he could not win. It is not the Russian way.

So there are still only three options on the table. 1- Ukraine Surrenders. 2- Putin dies 3- Ukraine gets nukes.

[Chad Fuck 17590]

7 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

This deal sucks, but it's a deal that neither side will take (which was the intent).   Russia for sure wouldn't touch this deal.  They sure is shit don't want the Polish army stationed in a DMZ.  

My look on this is that it keeps the weapons flowing and actually advances the pace.  Russia won't get a better deal than this, and will have to settle for their country collapsing or restoration of at best 2022 borders and preferably 2014 borders.  

LOL.  The new administration will find a way to placate Russia.  Just wait and see.  And if I'm wrong, may everyone come tell me so, because I'll be very happy for the people of Ukraine.

[Laxtonto 12051]

I had this same discussion with several close friends of mine, and I always go back to equating this to the failure of Vietnam. Fighting a war with red lines and weapon restrictions will always lead to defeat.

The Ukraine was always going to be the smaller force. That was understood from the beginning. The logic that US tech will defeat Russian tech was on full display. The problem is that we provided the technology but never let Ukraine follow through with the overall doctrine that the US would have employed in this scenario.  Manpower will always trump technology if you stretch the timeline by not allowing that technology to overwhelm the opposition. The US and the Biden administration ultimately failed Ukraine. Yes, we provided unparalleled aid, but we then dictated how that technology could be used. We supported the target acquisition aspects of Ukraine while also leaking aspects of the Ukrainian counter offensive plans in an attempt to manipulate their strategy. We drew lines on maps and tried to dictate plans of attack, while having a poor grasp of the capabilities of the troops in the field and the restrictions they were under. We never let Ukraine do what we would have done from a tactical standpoint. The targeting and usage restrictions made the technology advantage a hollow shell in comparison of what it could and should have been.

The path for victory was for the Ukraine to decimate the Russian forces in Crimea and the Donbas while holding elsewhere. Use the overwhelming technology advantage and lay waste to every mode of transportation into the combat theater and starve the Russian out figuratively and literally. Force everyone within 200 km of the theater to in essence have to walk or drive to the front. Make anywhere within 200 km of the front be a deadzone with no power, no food, no functional infrastructure. Decimate the Russian will to fight and the troops ability to move. Slow the flow of troops and supplies so the smaller Ukrainian force and easily repel the invaders. Instead, we got restrictions and staging areas 50 km from the front. This limits the ability to be reactionary and eventually  the manpower disadvantage will lead to being overwhelmed.

If what we saw was the approach the outgoing administration considered appropriate and measured, then there was no hope for Ukraine to win with these restrictions. The counterattacks into Russian territory were too late to alter the war. The failure to allow the use of deep strike capabilities to cripple rail transportation of troops too the front allowed Russia to slowly overwhelm the eastern front through meat grinder zerg assaults. The decision to not allow attacks on NIP-16 satellite comm site until June this year was years too late. The US never let Ukraine force the Russia populace to live in fear of the war. We never let Ukraine approach this conflict the same way we would have, and in doing so Ukraine was tasked with the near impossible task of bleeding out Russia and trading soil for Russian blood and equipment.

In many ways, the hope for a settlement driven by Trump is now the only recourse. The only silver lining is that his hate and disdain for Iran and their continued involvement in supplying Russia with drones and ICBMs combined with his desire to limit China on the world stage will force a geopolitical squeeze on Russia. The only problem is that the Ukraine is now bargaining from a position of at best stalemate if not apparent weakness. I cannot come up with a scenario that Ukraine does not lose something in the negotiated outcome. Be it territory, be it historical claim to Crimea, be it the ability to join NATO, the war is now going to end at a huge political cost to Ukraine on top of the unimaginable destruction and loss of life.

The unwillingness to commit to total war has led to loss of an entire generation of men and women, which I fear Ukraine may never recover from. Make no mistake, this is all at the feet of the current administration and we need to take a hard look at why this turned out the way it did.

[Parliament 14156]

It wasn’t just all the red lines on usage.  We didn’t give near enough of the equipment.  We still have all kinds of Bradley’s sitting in storage.  Lotsa F16’s that could’ve been given.  Quality CAN trump quality, but you gotta have some minimum quantity of that quality.  Ukraine does not.

And we shoulda let Ukraine hire PMC’s with the money we were giving them.  Blackwater is a buncha assholes, but at least they’re OUR assholes.

[InkaUtexas 25599]

10 minutes ago, Parliament said:

It wasn’t just all the red lines on usage.  We didn’t give near enough of the equipment.  We still have all kinds of Bradley’s sitting in storage.  Lotsa F16’s that could’ve been given.  Quality CAN trump quality, but you gotta have some minimum quantity of that quality.  Ukraine does not.

And we shoulda let Ukraine hire PMC’s with the money we were giving them.  Blackwater is a buncha assholes, but at least they’re OUR assholes.

Not really. Prince went on to set up his own group backed by the PRC. They were, not sure anymore. There are other groups.

one issue with the equipment. The training that goes not only in using it, but sustaining it. one thing the US does better than anyone is training our maintenance and logistics personnel. Here it is seen as a career path, most places as a dead end job.

[PTINS 3442]

17 hours ago, MillerEP said:

The plan specifically says no US or UN oversight? So what exactly is stopping him from re-arming and just re-attacking with a better plan again? I sincerely hope they either drastically modify that deal or decline it altogether. Ukraine has been burned way too many times to trust Putin AND THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA to not just ignore any deals again. 

FIFY

13 hours ago, bolverk said:

Last month, with little fanfare, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made the stakes of the ongoing war in Ukraine as clear as possible. With Russian troops bearing down on Ukraine’s east, and with Western support continuing to flag, Zelensky clarified the potential outcomes of the war. “Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons and that will be our protection or we should have some sort of alliance,” he said. “Apart from NATO, today we do not know any effective alliances.”

Perhaps more importantly, Zelensky is resurfacing an important part of Ukrainian history that many in the West seem to have forgotten but that the West bears significant responsibility for. In the aftermath of the Soviet collapse, Ukraine emerged as one of a handful of nations to claim a segment of the Soviet nuclear arsenal. And almost immediately, the United States and Russia led a joint effort to strip Ukraine of its new weapons, succeeding in 1994 via the now infamous Budapest Memorandum. It was a move that, at the time, resulted in rounds of condescending self-congratulation around Washington—and that, in time, set the stage for Russia’s later invasion of Ukraine. Now, as Zelensky has made clear, that bill is coming due—and the West now faces the option of finally welcoming Ukraine into NATO’s ranks or risking it becoming a nuclear power once more.

Of all the Treaties and Agreements and Contracts and Deals that have been broken since the dawn of man, this one is very close to the top of my list. The US and Russia and Ukraine agreeing that Ukraine would give up its Nuclear Weapons in exchange for a peaceful existence, backed up by the US and Russia.

Give up you weapons ... and FUCK YOU. 

Why would anybody trust the US Government for anything?

The Vietnam War & Watergate created a huge distrust between the American people (me) and our government.  The US capitulating to Russia and ignoring their Crimes against Humanity will accelerate and magnify the distrust of the world and the US.  The US isolationist dream that allowed Hitler to run amok over Europe has come full circle, only now the US cannot simply flip a switch and take what it wants from other countries, unless we choose to be Russia 2.0.

Yes we can isolate ourselves, but the US is not self sufficient and needs what the rest of the world has. That isolationist behavior will come at an unforeseen cost.

12 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Thanks, @InkaUtexas for tagging me.  I know I’ve dipped from this thread.  This might be my last post in here. 

I really haven’t left there and every day since has brought Ukraine to me. 

This is true: Ukraine is heading towards a loss in this war, whether faster or slower.  I did not say that Russia will win, but Ukraine is heading for a loss. That is where the road heads.  Ukraine is smaller, Russia is bigger, and Putin wants Ukraine to lose more than we want it to win.  It’s a math equation now.

I have never been more proud of being an American than I was in March 2022 but since the about the summer of 2023, all that has been whittled away down to nothing.  2022 was the purest test of whether America wanted to be America since 1941.  We failed. Many of us don’t want to be America anymore, and many of those who want to be America are not brave enough to actually do it.  I don’t know who makes me angrier, except maybe myself. 

The Poles and the Balts and the Czechs are better Americans than we are but they just don’t have enough.  Sometimes only America can be America.  

This has consumed my life for almost 1000 days, and it will continue to consumer it until it ends one way or another.  I’ll keep at it, but I can’t look at my Ukrainian friends in the eyes anymore and I can’t write about it anymore. 

Well said 956, as we have come to expect. Not just to 956, but to so many of you.

There is not any one issue that really affected my thoughts on the election more than Ukraine.  Almost 1% of America agreed with me. Other than a quick glance at pre-market economic activity and the "news", this board is the first thing I read.

Joe Biden's first words on Ukraine soil, "How are the kids?", was a high point for me.  Unfortunately, it has been a long slide downhill since then.

I feel like I need to apologize for being an American.

So sad.

43 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

This would not be the Polish army. I would be a small sliver. Maybe a regiment. Probably a battalion. Same with the other NATO countries. It would be an observer mission with no teeth. Add in that the Poles or really any EU Nations have seen combat since 1945 except supporting our missions in Iraq and Afghanistan. And then most were only special ops teams.

Putin won't take it. He cannot admit he could not win. It is not the Russian way.

So there are still only three options on the table. 1- Ukraine Surrenders. 2- Putin dies 3- Ukraine gets nukes.

I want #3, but would accept #2. FAFO.

40 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

The unwillingness to commit to total war has led to loss of an entire generation of men and women, which I fear Ukraine may never recover from. Make no mistake, this is all at the feet of the current administration and we need to take a hard look at why this turned out the way it did.

Foreign Policy was deemed the most important issue by ~ 2% of the electorate.

Growing up on an an Air Force Brat on SAC bases tend to give one an alternate view of reality, but it is my reality. My father was a jet engine mechanic, in the Philippines in the early 60's and in Taiwan and Andrews AFB during the Vietnam War.  Foreign policy issues were kind of a big deal for us.  Call me a 2 %'er.

China's shenanigans in the South China Seas gave been going on for ~20 years. The Middle East has always been a powder keg, but now Israel and Iran are playing and smoking and using the keg for a table. 

The world is in turmoil, and a lot of the Americans that work thinks they are entitled to work from home, 30 hours a week, and retire before they are 40.

They have access to all the information in the world, and they just don't care about anything other than their own little idealistic lives.

I don't think they will ever take a hard look at anything.

[Gravy Train 974]

1. Russia DOES intent to take all of Ukraine-- not just for land resources, but also naturalization of its people and technology
2. The war of attrition which the Biden admin aided to has already permanently damaged Russia's economy to a wartime mode and it can't return to a peaceful productivity- sanctions and trading partner relationships are toast.
3. China is absolutely in-tune with what Trump's admin will support and very well may make a move on Taiwan during his term.  The time is almost now.
4. Trump's attempts to broker peace will be ignored by Zelenskyy and perhaps even NATO allies. Putin will take the bait (wink wink) if it leads to reduced sanctions and his opportunity to stabilize his economy while allowing the military to recover- then they push westward again.

Potential wildcards:

1. Trump's admin is properly briefed on the greater details of our conflict and take a hard line at his peace brokering deal.  If, in fact, he is ignored or denied, then perhaps Trump ramps up military supply in a 'go get your shinebox' type response.
2. Trump is influenced to continue aid because the military-complex checks are too good to ignore. The Northrop Grummans, Boeings, Raytheons, and Indiana munitions factories won't be so happy about winding down production when they had greater support from the Biden admin
3. NATO steps up to steer conversations in our absence; watch for Macron's advising
4. Erdoğan inserts himself (as we all knew he would) among the peace talks for his interests at a convenient time when the Caucuses fracture more and look to him for their protection

 

[Born to Run 6568]

On 11/7/2024 at 8:47 PM, 956 Worldwide said:

Thanks, @InkaUtexas for tagging me.  I know I’ve dipped from this thread.  This might be my last post in here. 
 

In early March 2022 I was in deep southeastern Poland.  So deep that it wasn’t always really Poland. I was there with the grandmas and the kids with cats in their arms and the moms trying to carry all their luggage.  I caught my first case of COVID in a World Central Kitchen outpost. 
 

I really haven’t left there and every day since has brought Ukraine to me. 
 

This is true: Ukraine is heading towards a loss in this war, whether faster or slower.  I did not say that Russia will win, but Ukraine is heading for a loss. That is where the road heads.  Ukraine is smaller, Russia is bigger, and Putin wants Ukraine to lose more than we want it to win.  It’s a math equation now.
 

I have never been more proud of being an American than I was in March 2022 but since the about the summer of 2023, all that has been whittled away down to nothing.  2022 was the purest test of whether America wanted to be America since 1941.  We failed. Many of us don’t want to be America anymore, and many of those who want to be America are not brave enough to actually do it.  I don’t know who makes me angrier, except maybe myself. 
 

The Poles and the Balts and the Czechs are better Americans than we are but they just don’t have enough.  Sometimes only America can be America.  
 

This has consumed my life for almost 1000 days, and it will continue to consumer it until it ends one way or another.  I’ll keep at it, but I can’t look at my Ukrainian friends in the eyes anymore and I can’t write about it anymore. 

Thanks for fighting the good fight.

I'm ready to pivot to helping some force for good somewhere.

It's time to rock the boat and punch a few bastards.

[Party_Taco 3692]

Yep, now that political season is over I can start shifting funds back to Ukraine.

[B00M 6354]

On 11/8/2024 at 9:01 AM, Laxtonto said:

If what we saw was the approach the outgoing administration considered appropriate and measured, then there was no hope for Ukraine to win with these restrictions. The counterattacks into Russian territory were too late to alter the war. The failure to allow the use of deep strike capabilities to cripple rail transportation of troops too the front allowed Russia to slowly overwhelm the eastern front through meat grinder zerg assaults.

In a bizarre way, this is exactly why I’m clinging to a bit of hope that negotiations with the new US administration result in a very surprising outcome. It’s within his grasp to actually be great. How does he want to be remembered? 

Edited November 10 by B00M
The slow bleed of the prior administration was arguably disastrous but perhaps necessary to justify the overwhelming force that looms…

[InkaUtexas 25599]

I wrote previously I think he wants to be known for making the Deal. Gives zero fucks of the medium or long term outcome. He will be dead by then. He wants his Chamberlain moment.

[Jameslaw121 4447]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

I wrote previously I think he wants to be known for making the Deal. Gives zero fucks of the medium or long term outcome. He will be dead by then. He wants his Chamberlain moment.

You're probably correct. But, there is an off chance he uses this to make himself look like a strong leader of a Democracy and (takes the checks from the military industrial base) and says fuck it, gloves are off

[InkaUtexas 25599]

13 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

You're probably correct. But, there is an off chance he uses this to make himself look like a strong leader of a Democracy and (takes the checks from the military industrial base) and says fuck it, gloves are off

Then look at it from each side's perspective. Other than consumable and refurbishment items, the MIC is not making that much more than they were. The Bradley's and F-16's are not new. They were being "maintained". The replacement items are next generation and already contracted. The companies that made money on the equipment are those that came in to retrofit them to hand over to Ukraine. Don't get me wrong, it is still a shit ton of funds. The company running the bases in Poland has passed go a few times.

The companies making consumables, artillery shells, ammo, etc are doing real well in growth. But once there is "peace" those orders go way down or stop. All it takes is 1 letter from a Contracting Authority (Probably Rock Island).

What I think the middle ground is what we can expect. Continued support, diminished, but continues. Push for Ukraine to accept peace terms agreeable to Putin. Any funding then switches for US companies from War to Reconstruction. It is interesting that the prime players in military sustainement (not manufacturing) such as Amentum, Vectrus, Fluor, etc. all have reconstruction focused groups that court USAID and the UN.

So take those companies out of the equation. They are going to make bank either way.

Trump wants Legacy. What sort? That is where we should be looking. I won't get into it unless the Ukraine CR thread opens back up.

[956 Worldwide 34518]

 

[Brisketexan 104785]

12 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 

1) Putin will do whatever the fuck he wants.

2) Trump will take it like a bitch, because that's what he is: lots of talk when dealing with rubes, or with people over whom he has ALL the leverage....worthless and weak with an actual opponent who doesn't give a shit.

[nineliveslost 2748]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

2) Trump will take it like a bitch, because that's what he is: lots of talk when dealing with rubes, or with people over whom he has ALL the leverage....worthless and weak with an actual opponent who doesn't give a shit.

we shall see. I will give him shit if he does as you say 

Will you give him credit if he pushes back against Putin?

[Brisketexan 104785]

5 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

Will you give him credit if he pushes back against Putin?

Absolutely.  Seriously, I pray for it.

[Jameslaw121 4447]

@InkaUtexas

Since I know you know much more about this than I. Let me ask a few questions

 

Quote

Then look at it from each side's perspective. Other than consumable and refurbishment items, the MIC is not making that much more than they were. The Bradley's and F-16's are not new. They were being "maintained". The replacement items are next generation and already contracted. The companies that made money on the equipment are those that came in to retrofit them to hand over to Ukraine. Don't get me wrong, it is still a shit ton of funds. The company running the bases in Poland has passed go a few times.

I was under the impression that the MIC was looking forward to replacing these vehicles with the next gen. Also, how much have Western equipment being very superior to their Russian counterparts affect sales?

Quote

The companies making consumables, artillery shells, ammo, etc are doing real well in growth. But once there is "peace" those orders go way down or stop. All it takes is 1 letter from a Contracting Authority (Probably Rock Island).

Can you explain this more for us idiots?

Quote

What I think the middle ground is what we can expect. Continued support, diminished, but continues. Push for Ukraine to accept peace terms agreeable to Putin. Any funding then switches for US companies from War to Reconstruction. It is interesting that the prime players in military sustainement (not manufacturing) such as Amentum, Vectrus, Fluor, etc. all have reconstruction focused groups that court USAID and the UN.

What is the overlap between war footing and reconstruction with specific companies? Is this similar to John Deer, GM, and Ford after WW2? What about banking and finance? What is their role in war versus peacetime?

[Jameslaw121 4447]

11 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

we shall see. I will give him shit if he does as you say 

Will you give him credit if he pushes back against Putin?

I will, but lets define what push back is? If he pushed Putin to pre 2014, yes I will. If he pushed Putin back to pre current invasion levels? Maybe, depends on the terms.

If he pretends to push back while not actually doing anything??

Edited November 10 by Jameslaw121

[nineliveslost 2748]

Just now, Jameslaw121 said:

I will, but lets define what push back is? If he pushed Putin to pre 2014, yes I will. If he pushed Putin back to pre current invasion levels? Maybe, depends on the terms.

If he pretends to push back while not actually doing anything??

I just get a feeling Trump is going to do a lot of un-Trump things. I think his pride wants him to leave a very positive legacy his second term so he can claim to be a Huuuuuuugely most successful president evaaaar. 

I think he pushes Putin to the negotiating table. Ukraine loses some territory and gets Nato invite. 

I worry what happens if he fails. I do believe France will then send troops into eastern Ukraine and the Poles creep towards the border.  Belarus gets twitchy and the poles lay their cock out and things escalate quickly and uncontrollably. Russia sends North Korean troops into Ukrainian land and France and Poland respond. Shit gets scary then  

As much as Trump is a pompous unpredictable asshole we need him to succeed 

[InkaUtexas 25599]

16 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

@InkaUtexas

Since I know you know much more about this than I. Let me ask a few questions

 

I was under the impression that the MIC was looking forward to replacing these vehicles with the next gen. Also, how much have Western equipment being very superior to their Russian counterparts affect sales?

Can you explain this more for us idiots?

What is the overlap between war footing and reconstruction with specific companies? Is this similar to John Deer, GM, and Ford after WW2? What about banking and finance? What is their role in war versus peacetime?

I was under the impression that the MIC was looking forward to replacing these vehicles with the next gen. Also, how much have Western equipment being very superior to their Russian counterparts affect sales?

Already ordered. There is a long process from we need to we can field. So what we were handing over was equipment from the First Gulf War up to Iraq Invasion  with a few exceptions (MRAPS). But we have already contracted replacements. @atomheartbevo can correct me. Even if we are going to run a new platform, say the bradley, the upgrades to it make it almost a new vehicle. Since there are not that many manufacturers out there, real competition is at the component level. Who makes a better sight or mobile espresso machine.

If we would sell our old shit, there is a lot still in storage, it would sell. But we keep reserves. Real beneficiaries are going to be other manufacturers who are going to replace Russia. It is now known and accepted their equipment is not great and they cannot sustain. India and South America are big buyer markets and both are trying to strengthened their capacity to build. Winners, well South Korea is probably the happiest. Others would be Sweden (SAAB and their aircraft) with pretty damn good gear that is cheaper then US. Also, we DO NOT Sell the latest and greatest. It is why countries buy versions.

This is not the case with components or ammo. The guns we give them are tied to our supply chain. There is a massive demand right now for 155mm anything. Casings, fuses, etc. Same with 5.56 ammo (Military Spec). Those factories take time to ramp up. A lot of our aid are consumables. MRE's, bandages, etc. Yeah, we can make them and expand pretty easy.

The companies making consumables, artillery shells, ammo, etc are doing real well in growth. But once there is "peace" those orders go way down or stop. All it takes is 1 letter from a Contracting Authority (Probably Rock Island)

In US contracting you get an award. It can be for services or items. Items is tied to what they think they need over a set period of time. At anytime you can get a halt notice. We don't need that many widgets since we decided we need wackets for example. It is one reason when Congress fights so hard over programs in every Defense Bill. One items gets cut down, well those are jobs in districts.

So when a decision is made to kill or reduce a supply contract then a Contracting Authority sends a letter saying so. That is where it begins. Lots more happens, but that is some legal shit even Brisket won't understand. (Oh, and Beltway Lawyers make a pretty penny. In fact more like a shiny nickle.)

Rock Island is a small Army base. It has control of the largest sustainment contract in existence, LOGCAP. Right now KBR is the only company that can work under that contract in the European Command area of operations. There are other places, but Rock Island is the one used as a solid example. For instance, the USMC has their equivalent in Albany, GA.

What is the overlap between war footing and reconstruction with specific companies? Is this similar to John Deer, GM, and Ford after WW2? What about banking and finance? What is their role in war versus peacetime?

Most of the non-manufacturing MIC companies, like those named, don't make shit. They "sustain" operations. Build camps down to empty shitters. Shrink wrap helicopters for shipping to maintaining them where they are told to. Not 100%, but a lot of it. So, being smart and seeing the examples from Iraq and Afghanistan, they all created development and reconstruction divisions within the company. They focus on different sales approaches and US Government agencies. For reconstruction and development it is mainly USAID and sometimes the Corps of Engineers (infrastructure like roads and irrigation).

So the change is the congressional allocation of funding. Groups will watch the Department of State and USAID budgets. for instance, instead of training patriot teams they will be looking to provide police monitors. Instead of building a camp for the army, it will be a camp for the companies rebuilding roads or irrigation.

Same company, same board, different divisions. Maybe some different branding. They might create an offshoot. Or in the VC world 1 holding company will have 1 of each.

 

There is a lot more and I am sure on here others have opinions and information, but there you go in a nut shell.

[InkaUtexas 25599]

55 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

I just get a feeling Trump is going to do a lot of un-Trump things. I think his pride wants him to leave a very positive legacy his second term so he can claim to be a Huuuuuuugely most successful president evaaaar. 

I think he pushes Putin to the negotiating table. Ukraine loses some territory and gets Nato invite. 

I worry what happens if he fails. I do believe France will then send troops into eastern Ukraine and the Poles creep towards the border.  Belarus gets twitchy and the poles lay their cock out and things escalate quickly and uncontrollably. Russia sends North Korean troops into Ukrainian land and France and Poland respond. Shit gets scary then  

As much as Trump is a pompous unpredictable asshole we need him to succeed 

No, we need Putin to go away. There is no Loosing allowed in his world. Winning is his legacy. He does not see himself as a leader of the Politburo. He sees himself as a Tsar

[nineliveslost 2748]

10 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

No, we need Putin to go away. There is no Loosing allowed in his world. Winning is his legacy. He does not see himself as a leader of the Politburo. He sees himself as a Tsar

Agree but I don't think Putin is going away. I think he has complete control of the Oligarchs and surprising still very popular in Russia. 

We need to choke him out and a Ukraine in Nato 

[kibbles 70]

On 10/22/2024 at 12:15 PM, NorthLoop said:

He can't see them because of the chemtrails. 

 

[Schulz2.0 28863]

Ukrainians hit some Moscow suburbs and an ammo depot near Bryansk with drones.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/10/ukraine-russia-drone-attacks-moscow-war

[Chopper 17174]

On Mark Galeotti's latest episode of the In Moscow's Shadows podcast, he said his advice to Zelensky is that the new Ambassador to the US should be a former Miss Ukraine. He was only partially joking. 

[Bevo 13534]

I think things will escalate between Iran and Israel. Israel with US assistance will go after Kharg Island and Iran's nuclear facilities. US will step up production as will much of the ME to make up the shortfall, but China will want Russian oil and gas. The US will allow it and will allow purchases from NATO countries as part of the negotiation to end the war between Ukraine and Russia.

[BurntEyes 5863]

4 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

Agree but I don't think Putin is going away. I think he has complete control of the Oligarchs and surprising still very popular in Russia. 

We need to choke him out and a Ukraine in Nato 

Do you have any reputable source for this regarding popularity among the people? On the popularity I'm suspect of most sources as the propaganda machine runs so strong I could see the truth being buried. 

[PTINS 3442]

My $0.02 worth ...

President Trump inherited a populace that is as fragmented and splintered as any in history, as well as the foreign policy hairballs of Russia, Iran and China.  As complicated as it is, his first move goes a long way in corralling the foreign policy side of the equiation.

Trump's has aspirations of being our greatest President and cementing his Legacy.

Here is one benchmark. 

As of today, The new administration is looking for a 1 day solution to a centuries old issue of Russia's expansionist doctrine.

Is this the Legacy Trump wants, that he stood in the shadows and sprinkled holy water on Russia's state sponsored terrorism and invasion of a sovereign country that brought a wave of war crimes, brutality and and human suffering not seen since WWII?  The bombed out shell of what used to be Bakhmut would make a good backdrop for that. 

Or, does Trump want to something else, to have the same legacy that Ronald Reagan has for being the force behind the tearing down all of the Berlin Wall and ushering in a new era and one of the most important inflection points in the history of Europe?

In my mind, that is a very binary choice.

Do you support the democracies of the world in offering a hand to the rest of the world, or are you stomping on them with a black boot?

How Trump handles Russia and Putin goes a long way the rest of foreign policy issues.

As with most things, follow the money.

Iran must be treated delicately, for now, as the Iranian oil production is needed to balance and help stabilize the world economies. Other than Russia, there is not enough idle production capacity to offset a significant decrease in Iranian production without a price spike. Increasing Russia oil production provides more options on Iran, and while Trump can influence that, he can't control it without alignment from the other interested parties.

Bringing Russian oil back into the market, in a manner that funds the rebuilding of Ukraine, would have broad support and long lasting support. Equally important, it somewhat isolates Iran in an Iran issue, and reduces one of the possible ripple effects on the rest of the world.

Positive moves (in the eyes of the civilized countries) in dealing with Russia and Iran goes a long way in dealing with China.

Will it be Ronald and the Donald, and does Donald get remembered as a Russian lackey?

I am hopeful that Trump's Ego comes into play, in a manner that makes him pause, and think, how his actions will be remembered, for eternity.

[InkaUtexas 25599]

His ego is about the deal. I fear short term vision will guide that. He just wants the deal in his name so he can talk about it. What it really looks like is for the rest of the minions to worry about.

[PTINS 3442]

17 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

I was under the impression that the MIC was looking forward to replacing these vehicles with the next gen. Also, how much have Western equipment being very superior to their Russian counterparts affect sales?

Already ordered. There is a long process from we need to we can field. So what we were handing over was equipment from the First Gulf War up to Iraq Invasion  with a few exceptions (MRAPS). But we have already contracted replacements. @atomheartbevo can correct me. Even if we are going to run a new platform, say the bradley, the upgrades to it make it almost a new vehicle. Since there are not that many manufacturers out there, real competition is at the component level. Who makes a better sight or mobile espresso machine.

If we would sell our old shit, there is a lot still in storage, it would sell. But we keep reserves. Real beneficiaries are going to be other manufacturers who are going to replace Russia. It is now known and accepted their equipment is not great and they cannot sustain. India and South America are big buyer markets and both are trying to strengthened their capacity to build. Winners, well South Korea is probably the happiest. Others would be Sweden (SAAB and their aircraft) with pretty damn good gear that is cheaper then US. Also, we DO NOT Sell the latest and greatest. It is why countries buy versions.

This is not the case with components or ammo. The guns we give them are tied to our supply chain. There is a massive demand right now for 155mm anything. Casings, fuses, etc. Same with 5.56 ammo (Military Spec). Those factories take time to ramp up. A lot of our aid are consumables. MRE's, bandages, etc. Yeah, we can make them and expand pretty easy.

The companies making consumables, artillery shells, ammo, etc are doing real well in growth. But once there is "peace" those orders go way down or stop. All it takes is 1 letter from a Contracting Authority (Probably Rock Island)

In US contracting you get an award. It can be for services or items. Items is tied to what they think they need over a set period of time. At anytime you can get a halt notice. We don't need that many widgets since we decided we need wackets for example. It is one reason when Congress fights so hard over programs in every Defense Bill. One items gets cut down, well those are jobs in districts.

So when a decision is made to kill or reduce a supply contract then a Contracting Authority sends a letter saying so. That is where it begins. Lots more happens, but that is some legal shit even Brisket won't understand. (Oh, and Beltway Lawyers make a pretty penny. In fact more like a shiny nickle.)

Rock Island is a small Army base. It has control of the largest sustainment contract in existence, LOGCAP. Right now KBR is the only company that can work under that contract in the European Command area of operations. There are other places, but Rock Island is the one used as a solid example. For instance, the USMC has their equivalent in Albany, GA.

What is the overlap between war footing and reconstruction with specific companies? Is this similar to John Deer, GM, and Ford after WW2? What about banking and finance? What is their role in war versus peacetime?

Most of the non-manufacturing MIC companies, like those named, don't make shit. They "sustain" operations. Build camps down to empty shitters. Shrink wrap helicopters for shipping to maintaining them where they are told to. Not 100%, but a lot of it. So, being smart and seeing the examples from Iraq and Afghanistan, they all created development and reconstruction divisions within the company. They focus on different sales approaches and US Government agencies. For reconstruction and development it is mainly USAID and sometimes the Corps of Engineers (infrastructure like roads and irrigation).

So the change is the congressional allocation of funding. Groups will watch the Department of State and USAID budgets. for instance, instead of training patriot teams they will be looking to provide police monitors. Instead of building a camp for the army, it will be a camp for the companies rebuilding roads or irrigation.

Same company, same board, different divisions. Maybe some different branding. They might create an offshoot. Or in the VC world 1 holding company will have 1 of each.

There is a lot more and I am sure on here others have opinions and information, but there you go in a nut shell.

Thanks for the info!!!

For good reasons, the schizophrenic US policies have to be unnerving, for everybody.

At the end of the day, you need equipment that works, and is cost effective.

How close does US continued support for Ukraine correlate to the EU, NATO and others buying US products v. other countries production?

Similarly, behind the scenes, how is the US doctrine of "controlling" how the US made weapons are used by Ukraine viewed from the other NATO countries.

If the US turns its back on Ukraine, does that marginalize US contractors from feeding at the trough for reconstruction?

It seems to me if that is the card we play, the US influence within the EU and Nato will be substantially diminished. 

[InkaUtexas 25599]

30 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Thanks for the info!!!

For good reasons, the schizophrenic US policies have to be unnerving, for everybody.

At the end of the day, you need equipment that works, and is cost effective.

How close does US continued support for Ukraine correlate to the EU, NATO and others buying US products v. other countries production?

Similarly, behind the scenes, how is the US doctrine of "controlling" how the US made weapons are used by Ukraine viewed from the other NATO countries.

If the US turns its back on Ukraine, does that marginalize US contractors from feeding at the trough for reconstruction?

It seems to me if that is the card we play, the US influence within the EU and Nato will be substantially diminished. 

Not that much. With the exception of big $ systems, F-35's for instance, the EU makes most of their own shit.

No idea how it is viewed, but I don't see UK/French artillery being used to level Russia. Ukraine has a lot of ex-Russian shit that can be used. Keep the NATO stuff for shoot and scoot vs. attacks is what I think they are doing.

We tend to not do that great with reconstruction projects. It depends on who funds it. EU/Nato, watch for partnerships. UN goes to a Turkish or Pakistani group. USAID goes US. But its cool, there is going to be plenty for all. But like DOD, USAID has gone a certain way in contracting. 5-10 companies are selected to bid on certain types of projects, like health care supply chain. This is a combination of small and large businesses. Only they will get a chance to play. Lot of horse trading goes on trying to convince USG to use or not use certain contract vehicles.

Not really. Every troop/system we keep over there is one less they need to have in the field and pay for. Of course if shit goes tits up and Russia made a move west that changes.

[Chopper 17174]

If ruzzia agrees to a deal it would be for the main purpose of consolidating their gains (which trump will push for). Under those circumstances, and the possible need for private insurance, I'm not sure what or how much gets rebuilt because the risk/likelihood seems hight that they'll start up another war as soon as they've rebuilt their forces. 

Edited November 11 by Chopper

[InkaUtexas 25599]

No one is rebuilding shit in the east. Maybe repair come irrigation systems, hospitals get meds, etc. Maybe some heavy industry gets rebuilt/tooled. 

Those blown to shit apartments become landfill.