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9 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I think we'll arm Ukraine faster and better until Russia caves to some form of negotiated peace.   Neither side will be particularly happy with the negotiated peace....but that's kind of how those things work.  It sucks, but that's the best case scenario right now without directly putting NATO troops on the ground.  

8 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Well current battle lines include Ukraine controlling some area of Kursk, no?   So do an all for all land trade.  Still doesn’t solve the peninsula though. 

Yeah, no way in hell any kind of negotiated peace ends with Ukraine holding Kursk, even though that's the kind of leverage Ukraine should be able to use to get back Crimea.  Ukraine will be told to leave Kursk before talks begin, but Russia won't be told to leave Crimea/DPR/LPR.

Meanwhile, in Kyiv (and thank the Gods that we can now go straight for BlueSky and skip Twitter).

 

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5 hours ago, Parliament said:

Looks like they’ve been able to patch up the Ruble for now.

IMG_5249.png

Pretty good explanation from the WSJ. 

https://archive.is/H6oWh

Russia’s War Economy Shows New Cracks After the Ruble Plunges

Spoiler

The Russian economy, surprisingly resilient through two-plus years of war and sanctions, has suddenly begun to show serious strains.

The ruble is plunging. Inflation is soaring, and President Vladimir Putin told the Russian people this week that there isn’t any reason to panic. 

The catalyst for the change in economic fortunes was a decision by the Biden administration to ratchet up sanctions on Russia’s Gazprombank, the last major unsanctioned bank that Moscow uses to pay soldiers and process trade transactions, as well as more than 50 other financial institutions. 

Gazprombank had been carved out of previous rounds of sanctions to allow allies in Europe to pay Russia for critical supplies of energy. It was a vital conduit for inflows of hard currency in exchange for Russia’s exports.

The ruble fell to a 32-month-low this week, and remained near its weakest point since the days after Moscow invaded Ukraine, according to LSEG data, trading for about 108 rubles to the dollar.

The free fall was stopped after Russia’s central bank intervened in currency markets late Wednesday. The bank said it would stop buying foreign currency for the rest of the year, which it does when the government has an oil-and-gas surplus, a move that should help alleviate a critical shortage of hard currency available to businesses and consumers. 

Putin said Thursday that “the situation is under control and there are certainly no grounds for panic.” Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said Wednesday that concerns about how the sanctions were affecting Russia’s foreign trade were behind the ruble slump.

The new sanction measures could gum up Russia’s already constrained trade routes with other countries, Russian officials and analysts say. 

It is a pivotal time for the nearly three-year-old war. Russia is advancing along the front line, assisted by North Korean troops and Iranian weaponry. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine quickly, leaving the outlook for current and future sanctions on Russia unclear.

In targeting Gazprombank, a state-controlled lender that began as an energy banking hub but has in recent years grown in importance in other cross-border payments, Washington is trying to stifle one of the last major links to the Western financial system. 

Russia has traded more in its own currency and so-called friendly currencies, such as China’s yuan and India’s rupee. Russian businesses have also found workarounds by using cryptocurrencies, or by bartering. But access to dollars remains critical.

After the measures were announced, Turkey said it would talk to the U.S. to try to secure a waiver so it can continue paying Gazprombank for natural-gas imports from Russia, its top supplier. Hungary, one of the few European countries still relying on Russian gas, said that it would also look for solutions. 

President Vladimir Putin, who spoke with the media in Kazakhstan on Sunday, says Russia’s economic situation ‘is under control.’

The sanctions on Gazprombank are having a “chilling effect, where traders, exporters and foreign banks are trying to figure out where their liabilities are, so it’s rational there’s a bit of a panic,” said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank focused on foreign policy. “But we may see in a couple weeks that new routes open up.”

Russia’s economy took a sharp blow in the months after Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. But heavy government spending and a wholesale reorientation of the economy toward the war effort returned the economy to growth. Huge payouts to soldiers and cheap mortgages helped keep households afloat. 

Military spending hit a post-Soviet high this year and is planned to rise to more than $120 billion next year, making up over 30% of total spending for the year.

But the stimulus has had dangerous side effects. Most notably, inflation is running at more than twice the central bank’s target. The bank has jacked up interest rates to 21% this year, which has done little so far to cool the overheating economy. A record labor shortage, as working-age men go to the front, has further fueled inflation.

A grocery store in St. Petersburg, Russia. Inflation in the country is running at more than twice the Russian central bank’s target.

Now, the plummeting ruble threatens to further increase the cost of imports. Consumer inflation is already running at close to 9% this month, according to official data. An alternate measure compiled by market-research firm Romir found that the average cost for everyday goods and services was up 28% in mid-November compared with last year. 

Tatiana Orlova, lead emerging-markets economist at Oxford Economics, expects Russia’s central bank to raise rates to 23% next month. She also expects the government to reimpose capital controls requiring exporters to repatriate more of their foreign-currency earnings, which boosts demand for rubles. 

Those efforts, along with a drop in imports after the holidays, might stabilize the ruble’s value. But higher interest rates will start to weigh more heavily on the economy next year, she said, leading to a recession in 2026. Parts of the economy that aren’t being bolstered by government support, such as agriculture and transport, are contracting.

“The economy is probably at a turning point,” Orlova said. “This very tight monetary policy is driving the economy toward recession.”

The Biden administration is targeting state-controlled lender Gazprombank, one of Russia’s last major links to the Western financial system.

Few think Russia is on the precipice of a more serious economic crisis, but the difficulties are expected to mount the longer the war persists.  

“The policy trade-offs will become more and more challenging,” said Elina Ribakova, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Russia is likely to continue eroding its economic prospects by giving priority to the war effort at the expense of healthcare, education and other nonmilitary areas, she said. 

Ordinary Russians were rattled by this week’s drop. They still watch the dollar exchange rate closely, and the ruble’s slide past 100 rubles per dollar was a psychologically important threshold for gauging the health of the economy. Against the Chinese yuan, the ruble has fallen nearly 10% this month.

On the social-media app Telegram, which is popular with Russians, a user pleaded: “Please tell me that everything will be okay, I feel sick.” 

The Russian central bank’s official account responded, “Everything will be fine.”

 

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That's fine.  But looking at things from all angles, it's the most logical outcome right now from my vantage point.  

lol. That didn’t take very fucking long. Like not even until Inauguration Day.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/29/europe/trump-new-ukraine-envoy-analysis-intl?cid=ios_app

He’s selling the Ukrainians out. Just like he did the Kurds. Cause he a wee little bitch.
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7 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:


lol. That didn’t take very fucking long. Like not even until Inauguration Day.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/29/europe/trump-new-ukraine-envoy-analysis-intl?cid=ios_app

He’s selling the Ukrainians out. Just like he did the Kurds. Cause he a wee little bitch.

Wow that's pretty bad shit. From the article, describing our soon to be Ukraine policy:

 

“Biden replaced the Trump approach with a liberal internationalist one that promoted Western values, human rights, and democracy,” he writes. That is a pretty grim base from which to build a compromise on European security.

He adds that some critics of continued aid to Ukraine - in which he seems to include himself - are “worried about whether America’s vital strategic interests are at stake in the Ukraine War, the potential of the involvement of US military forces and whether America is engaged in a proxy war with Russia that could escalate into a nuclear conflict.”

These two sentences provide the ultimate backdrop for the deal proposed: That Ukraine’s war is about values we don’t need to perpetuate, and we should step back from Putin’s nuclear threat. It is the opposite of the current unity in which the West prioritizes the values of its own way of life and security, based on the lesson of the Thirties that appeased dictators don’t stop.

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9 minutes ago, Captainant said:

whether America is engaged in a proxy war with Russia that could escalate into a nuclear conflict.”

These two sentences provide the ultimate backdrop

The ultimate backdrop to proving he’s a dumb motherfucker who has no business being in that position and has no understanding of Putin or Russian history, and doesn’t understand that if we back down in the face of Russian, then they will in fact put us in a direct war with Russia, because they won’t stop with Ukraine if given the green light by us.  Will they march on Kyiv?  No, but they will get a breather if we slow down aid, and they will do even more horrendous shit than they’ve done. In theory.

On paper, they couldn’t take on a NATO that’s missing the US, but Putin is a gambler who might very well take the chance.  He gambled he could take Kyiv in a week or two and nearly did.

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About Time Phone GIF by John Crist Comedy
 

 

 

“It's terrifying to feel vulnerable on your own home soil. They didn't care who they put face down — men, women, they didn't care. It was terrifying. Very terrifying. Don't know how much longer the others will be detained. We are slowly heading home, but the experience... wouldn't ever want to repeat that. I don't know by what miracle they let us go..."

Edited by atomheartbevo
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1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Seems like a hell of the day in the motherland. Wonder what the stock market and ruble will look like Monday morning.

I didn’t think we were at the rounding up people in the nightclubs stage, but here we are.  Maybe Putin is getting actual numbers from Ukraine.  Hitting 2,000 dead and wounded today is probably making some people in Moscow, or in a bunker, nervous.

Aleppo is a hopping and there’s no clear sign on how many Russians were killed, wounded, or captured in Syria, not to mention the Turks appear to be behind things,.  Georgian protests are ramping up.

No wonder a Russian defense minister was in North Korea this past week. 

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51 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I didn’t think we were at the rounding up people in the nightclubs stage, but here we are.  Maybe Putin is getting actual numbers from Ukraine.  Hitting 2,000 dead and wounded today is probably making some people in Moscow, or in a bunker, nervous.

Aleppo is a hopping and there’s no clear sign on how many Russians were killed, wounded, or captured in Syria, not to mention the Turks appear to be behind things,.  Georgian protests are ramping up.

No wonder a Russian defense minister was in North Korea this past week. 

Well fuck it, lets keep it going. France was told to get out of Mali today to be fully replaced by Wagner light. Now if only one of the Caucus groups decided to say fuck it, long live Haji Murad.

 

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A fairly brief retrospective by Phillips O'Brien on the US's handling of the war, with particular shade being thrown at Sullivan. If an argument is going to convince the new administration to take a more pro Ukraine stance, I think it's one like this that frames it in terms of strength and weakness. 

https://archive.is/qtvRb 

 

Spoiler

How Biden Made a Mess of Ukraine

He treated the conflict as a crisis to be managed, not a war to be won.

Biden filled his administration with geniuses: Rhodes scholars; Ivy League graduates; people with extensive global experience; a national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, whom the president has described as a “once-in-a-generation intellect.” The president himself has been immersed in foreign policy for half a century. Yet despite all of those impressive résumés, the Biden administration has badly mishandled the war in Ukraine, not only hampering a beleaguered ally’s ability to fend off a Russian invasion but also throwing away a remarkable chance to improve America’s global standing and democratic powers’ position in the world.
In defending themselves far more effectively than expected, the Ukrainians showed a capacity to deal Russian President Vladimir Putin a major military defeat, but again and again, Biden and his experts have constrained Ukraine’s ability to fight until it was too late. Just recently, only after his party lost the presidential election, Biden finally gave Ukraine the tightly limited ability to use American weapons on military targets in a small part of Russia. The president’s decision comes after 33 months of war, during which Russia has launched long-range attacks anywhere in Ukraine it wanted, in many cases using Iranian-made weaponry.
Biden has promised the Ukrainians that he will stand by them “for as long as it takes”—but he has nevertheless made sure that the war has gone on much longer than it had to.
Nataliya Gumenyuk: I’ve watched America and Ukraine switch places
Nearly three years in, the conflict is becoming ever more grotesque, and the number of war crimes keeps rising. The conflict has also become more global in nature, as Russia, by economic and military necessity, deepens its alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea. When Putin was gathering his invasion force in late 2021 and early 2022, the United States had good intelligence and tried to warn Ukraine about Russia’s plans. A far harder call was what would happen when an invasion began, and in that respect, the Biden administration didn’t understand what it was looking at. U.S. officials assumed that if Putin went ahead with his plans, Ukraine would stand no chance and the Russians would prevail in short order. Stung by the disastrous American withdrawal from Afghanistan just months earlier, Biden reacted to the new crisis with self-pity: According to the journalist Bob Woodward’s new book, War, the president complained, “Jesus Christ! Now I’ve got to deal with Russia swallowing Ukraine?”
In fact, the United States had greatly overestimated Russian might. Instead of unleashing shock and awe, Putin’s military was a shoddy instrument. It had ample firepower but was also hindered by corruption, uneven morale, command-and-control shortcomings, and logistical problems. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians showed themselves to be far more resilient, adaptable, and willing to fight than the Biden administration had understood. At that point, the U.S. could have capitalized immensely on the Ukrainians’ spirited resistance and on Russian weakness.
I struggle to think of another time when unexpected events offered a U.S. president more favorable conditions to remake the geopolitical landscape. For years, American strategists have discussed reorienting U.S. military forces away from Europe, where they serve primarily to guard democratic nations against Moscow’s military aggression, and toward the Indo-Pacific region in order to deter a fast-growing China. If the U.S. had helped Ukraine win in 2022—which is to say, liberate its own internationally recognized territory—and then join NATO, it would also have protected the security of countries to Ukraine’s west. The presence of a militarily powerful Ukraine in NATO would have moved the balance of forces within Europe decisively in favor of democratic nations and restored global confidence in American leadership, which the Afghanistan debacle had undermined. The United States could then have drawn down its military footprint in Europe and focused its energies on Asia. The world would have been much safer and stabler.
However bold the president’s promises to stand by the Ukrainians, though, his administration seemed cowed by Russian threats that Putin would use nuclear weapons if the U.S. assisted Kyiv too much. Moreover, an ingrained fixation on seeking stability in Russia seemed to make the White House nervous about doing anything that would threaten Putin’s rule too much or yield chaos in Russia. In a Foreign Affairs essay last fall, Sullivan boasted multiple times that the Biden administration was helping Ukraine defend itself. The problem is that defensive tactics alone will never be sufficient to allow Ukrainians to defeat an invasion by a much larger power.
Even so, Biden and his aides pursued a Goldilocks strategy, hoping to help Ukraine fight without provoking Putin too much. They provided very limited types of military equipment to Ukraine and even then made sure to restrict what Ukraine could do with it. At first, the Biden administration seemed terrified to give Ukraine anything that could hit more than 30 miles or so from the front lines—so the U.S. supplied only short-range weaponry. It certainly didn’t want Ukraine to be able to target Russian military assets in Crimea, which is internationally recognized as part of Ukraine and has been illegally occupied by Russia since 2014.
Anne Applebaum: Putin isn’t fighting for land in Ukraine
So for the rest of 2022, when Russia’s initial invasion faltered and then went into reverse, Ukraine was deprived of any ability to hit Russian targets far in the rear, even if those targets were within Ukraine’s own territory. And the battlefield results that followed were predictable. Although Ukraine made some deep advances in the fall, the Russians were always able to recover, having a broad sanctuary where they could regroup and supply their forces.
That was the start of the Biden administration forcing Ukraine to fight in a way that the United States would never contemplate for itself. When Kyiv sought longer-range weapons systems in 2022 and early 2023, the Biden administration at first refused, citing Putin’s supposed willingness to use nuclear weapons. The possibility of nuclear escalation was regularly repeated when Ukrainians sought access to other Western weapons systems, including ATACMS missiles, Abrams main battle tanks, F-16 fighters, and more.
When the U.S. eventually got over its reservations and provided the requested systems, albeit in limited numbers, Putin always backed down. The standard Russian strategy was to downplay the arrival of the new equipment and go out of its way to assure the Russian public that it would make no difference in the war. And in fact, those Western weapons had significantly less impact than they would have if the U.S. had transferred them earlier and in greater quantity.
An inability to learn became a major, repeated failure of the Biden administration’s overall strategy toward Ukraine. Extreme caution about provoking Putin was perhaps understandable in early 2022. American defense planners had for years played numerous wargames that resulted in nuclear weapons being used if some imagined Russian redline was crossed. Both Woodward and The New York Times have reported that, as Ukraine was taking back territory in the fall of 2022, the Biden administration believed—based on intelligence that likely will never become public—that there was a 50 percent chance that Putin would use nuclear bombs. Even so, the administration should have adjusted its thinking after Russia’s military weakness and its tendency to bluff on nuclear matters became clear.
Russia has adjusted its tactics and is trying to win. It has used Iranian drones, retrofitted with thermobaric weapons, to burn Ukrainian civilians alive; it’s in the process of deploying 10,000 North Korean troops to do its fighting, while sacrificing its own soldiers at a rate reaching 45,000 injuries and deaths a month. (The British government estimates total Russian casualties at about 700,000.) The Biden administration, meanwhile, is tying itself in knots deciding whether to allow Ukraine to attack military targets of great strategic value with weapons designed to do just that.
In practice, the Biden administration has treated the Ukraine conflict like a crisis to be managed, not a war to be won. The administration doesn’t seem to understand that Russia can be beaten.
Andrew Ryvkin: That time I was a Russian propagandist
For all of their caution, Biden and his foreign-policy experts have been caught unaware more than once—by the chaos surrounding the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, and even more strikingly by the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. The latter event occurred a week after Sullivan pronounced the Middle East “quieter today than it has been in two decades.” (He used similar language in the print version of his Foreign Affairs essay, which was revised before publication online.)
Unfortunately, the administration seems to have been just as surprised by Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression—and lacked the wisdom and imagination to take advantage of the situation for Ukraine’s benefit and America’s.
The war has now gone on so long that Biden won’t figure in its ending. Ukrainians can still fight on with Europe’s help. Perhaps President-Elect Donald Trump will confound his allies and detractors alike by standing with Ukraine instead of indulging Putin. What’s clear is that Biden missed the moment. The administration has dithered, looking more and more powerless as Ukraine has suffered and as an emergent anti-Western alliance that includes Iran, North Korea, and China has come to Russia’s aid. Biden could have helped create a better, more secure world than the one that existed in February 2022. Instead, he’s ushered in a much more dangerous one.

 

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Counterpoint: Biden’s Ukraine record would look a lot worse if Russia used some kind of tactical nuke and I’m not convinced they’d be any more of an international pariah than they are already.  Also, if the Johnson led House could have passed the appropriations for the transfer of materials earlier, Biden would look a lot better.  
 

Agree on the failure to seize the moment, however.  Let’s also not forget the how much public friction there was between Austin/DOD and Ukraine leadership on tactical decisions about a thousand pages ago on this thread.  

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 Rybar reports that the Russians have dismissed Lieutenant General Sergey Kisel, the commander of Russia's troop grouping in Syria. Earlier, former Eastern Military District commander Colonel General Alexander Chaiko, implicated in the mass killings in Bucha, was sent to assist him. In effect, this acknowledges a significant blow to Russia's global interests, to which it is unable to respond for well-known reasons—highlighting its weak negotiating position.

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4 hours ago, LCHorn said:

  Let’s also not forget the how much public friction there was between Austin/DOD and Ukraine leadership on tactical decisions about a thousand pages ago on this thread.  

Are you talking about when the US and Europe pre announced the Ukrainian offensive which led to a lot of unnecessary Ukrainian deaths and lost equipment?

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Canadian Lol GIF
 

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-flag-appears-big-screen-during-putin-visit-kazakhstan-2024-11-28/

Quote

Kazakh police are investigating the brief appearance of the Ukrainian flag on a large LED screen in the capital city, Astana, during a visit there by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kazakhstan's interior ministry said on Thursday.

Ukraine's flag - with its horizontal bands of blue and yellow - briefly appeared late on Wednesday instead of the Russian white, blue and red tricolor on a screen located on one of Astana's main thoroughfares.

Quote

Putin was already in the city at the time, and the screen was soon switched off, but images and videos of the incident quickly circulated online.The interior ministry said in a statement it was looking into all possible versions, including a technical glitch and a hacker attack.

According to an opinion survey conducted last year, a majority of Kazakhs are neutral regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, but among the rest, supporters of Ukraine significantly outnumber those of Russia.

 

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40 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

According to an opinion survey conducted last year, a majority of Kazakhs are neutral regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, but among the rest, supporters of Ukraine significantly outnumber those of Russia.

 

What does this mean?

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 https://apnews.com/article/deserters-awol-ukraine-russia-war-def676562552d42bc5d593363c9e5ea0
 

I hope the nature of my posts on this board mark me as a pro-Ukrainian optimist.  And that optimism is waning.  2025 might be what we feared 2022 would be.  All we can do now is make this hurt Russia as much as possible.  Kill enough of them they can’t project power outside their own shithole.

 

IMG_5251.png

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2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I hope the nature of my posts on this board mark me as a pro-Ukrainian optimist.  And that optimism is waning.  2025 might be what we feared 2022 would be.  All we can do now is make this hurt Russia as much as possible.  Kill enough of them they can’t project power outside their own shithole.

I don't know of the veracity of that article, but from a US Administration POV, this has always been the case. It has seemed clear to me from the beginning that fear of escalation, fear of the unknown following a Russian collapse, and the need for lower gas prices have always trumped the need to have an independent and democratic Ukraine. While the US public has wanted Russia to fall, the Biden Administration and Germany have wanted a weakened Russia that can't project power abroad. And Trump seems to care even less and just wants peace.

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35 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I don't know of the veracity of that article, but from a US Administration POV, this has always been the case. It has seemed clear to me from the beginning that fear of escalation, fear of the unknown following a Russian collapse, and the need for lower gas prices have always trumped the need to have an independent and democratic Ukraine. While the US public has wanted Russia to fall, the Biden Administration and Germany have wanted a weakened Russia that can't project power abroad. And Trump seems to care even less and just wants peace.

This Putin government is the same as a USSR government. Threaten, bitch, whine, but really not much they could ever do. What did they ever do since WW2? Don't say took Eastern Europe. That was done already by the end of the war. We did not force them back. Since then they have lost territory, etc.

They tried this BS vs. England during Lenin's time. We promise we will behave, but first get rid of sanctions. Nah, did not behave. Continued during the Cold War and continues today.

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https://www.threads.net/@jayinkyiv/post/DC_kTc4uszw?xmt=AQGzgPgNRkpCpzTbQx7Hw4D3XuptY4DaePQ6w1FXtSySyQ

Moscow property prices continue to decline, now down almost -50% from June 2022 highs.

 

https://www.threads.net/@jayinkyiv/post/DC_V55duWzY?xmt=AQGzgPgNRkpCpzTbQx7Hw4D3XuptY4DaePQ6w1FXtSySyQ

With property sales already down in some regions of Russia as much as -82%, it's finally catching up to Moscow.
Prices per square meter in USD even before the last month's ruble collapse.


 

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1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

Not Ukraine, but Georgia, so only tangentially related but I thought this dude's invention was too good to not share:

 


That was awesome. similar energy 

Machine Gun GIF

 

 

just hawt. I’m easily distracted 

machine gun boobs bouncing GIF
 

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