Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Schulz2.0 29280]

[Zepol87 9328]

1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

Disastrous Pullout is the name of my death metal band.   (RIP YGIFS....)

Yikes definitely been there

[Parliament 14593]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It doesn’t have to go there - the fact is that historically, pullouts usually don’t go very well, whether it be Vietnam (for us or the French), Afghanistan for the Russians (or Brits or us), various conflicts in Africa (US, Brits, French, the Belgians, although the French seemed to have done it the best in Africa), or some places in South America, or Susan Hofstetter in Galveston in 1994 when her husband came home from work early. Had I studied French military history in Africa, I might have affected a better withdrawal in that last incident, and not left such a lasting memory on her husband, her kids, or the Galveston County Sheriff’s Department.  

Dad!?

[atomheartbevo 90627]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Dad!?

[KYHorn 17612]

Strong analysis and reporting from Bloomberg on past decision points in this war and where's it's headed. It echoes many of the sentiments expressed on this thread over the past 3 years. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/russia-ukraine-us-allies-say-biden-strategy-was-too-little-too-late-for-ukraine 

Too Little Too Late: US Allies Say Biden Strategy Cost Ukraine Chance of Victory

Spoiler

(Bloomberg) -- In the month Joe Biden has left in office, his administration is focused on using all the resources it has left to deliver military aid for Ukraine and more sanctions aimed at weakening Vladimir Putin’s economy.

Officials in Ukraine and several allied capitals say it’s too little too late. 

Regardless of what Biden does in his final weeks, they said, Ukraine is heading toward a bitter settlement in which President Volodymyr Zelenskiy may have to leave swathes of territory in limbo in exchange for security guarantees that fall short of the NATO membership he’s pleaded for. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that outcome will largely be a consequence of decisions that Biden took, or failed to take, over the past two years.

Despite the US sending more than $90 billion in aid and arms, some allies are frustrated with Biden for stalling on key decisions to deliver more advanced weapons at crucial points in the conflict. 

In the fall of 2022, Ukrainian forces had Putin on the back foot and Zelenskiy was appealing to Biden for more weapons to press home his advantage. But Biden hesitated. His thinking was shaped by the possibility that an escalation might bring Russia’s nuclear arsenal into play, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has suggested. 

“His heart was undoubtedly in the right place — he understood the importance of standing with Ukraine against Russian aggression,” former UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said in an interview. “However, his approach was often too cautious and too hesitant, holding back on delivering the decisive support needed to tip the balance.”

Sullivan has refuted that view, saying on Dec. 7 that the US operation to arm Ukraine both before and during the war had been an “extraordinary feat.” Indeed, US support was critical for ensuring that Ukraine wasn’t overrun, especially at the start of the war, and rallying allies after the invasion.

Other US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, voiced their frustration with some European governments who they said were slow to accept that Putin would invade and then reluctant to ship weapons at all, at least until they learned of the abuses the Russians had perpetrated. Europe has often bristled at tougher sanctions and even as the US position on inviting Ukraine to join NATO appeared to soften, opposition in Berlin and elsewhere remained firm, the officials noted.

The paradox, other officials said, is that the outcome for Ukraine is now similar regardless of whether Biden or Donald Trump are in charge. Trump has called for an immediate ceasefire and his national security nominees have indicated that any deal would likely see Ukraine having to accept freezing its territory along current battle lines and give up its aspiration of joining NATO any time soon.

Behind the incipient blame game lies a deeper truth that frustrates officials on both sides of the Atlantic: for all the talk of European capitals reviving their hard power, the US is still the only NATO country that can tip the balance in a major conflict involving Russia. So the outcome of the war in Ukraine will inevitably be shaped by decisions taken in the White House. 

As a Cold War veteran who joined arms control negotiations with the Soviet Union, Biden was obsessed with the danger of nuclear escalation, one of the officials said. When urged to do more US officials repeatedly said that the risks were just too great. Other allies, like Germany, had similar worries. 

The fundamental problem, according to two senior European officials, was that Biden’s strategy seemed geared to preventing Ukraine from losing, without setting out a path to victory. That, the officials said, left Ukraine locked into a drawn-out conflict costing tens of thousands of lives.

But going all-in wasn’t the only option open to Biden. 

Less than a year into the war, then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley offered an alternative approach which wouldn’t have incurred the same risk of Russian escalation: push Zelenskiy into talks with Putin. 

“The Russian military is really hurting bad,” Milley said in November 2022. “You want to negotiate at a time when you’re at your strength, and your opponent is at weakness.” 

At that point in the conflict, though, such suggestions were considered beyond the pale. The mantra from western officials, in public and private, was that only Zelenskiy and the Ukrainians would decide when to negotiate.

According to a senior European official, Biden had two strategic options: ramp up support to let Kyiv finish the job or push for peace negotiations. He chose neither. 

While the US did increase weapons supplies ahead of the failed counteroffensive of 2023, two former UK officials said they had tried to convince Biden that much more was needed much more quickly, but they ran into his concerns of nuclear escalation. Those concerns were overstated, one UK official said, because at every stage the Russian threats proved illusory.

US officials argue that, on the contrary, sabotage attacks in Europe and Moscow’s increasingly intensive targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure show that Putin was prepared to escalate so they had to take his nuclear threats seriously. 

“The president has another responsibility that’s unique,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at an event in Washington this week. “Where the buck stops is at that desk, and it has been his responsibility to make sure that Ukraine has everything we can possibly provide to deal with the aggression — but also to avoid a direct conflict with with Russia. We don’t need a direct conflict between nuclear-armed powers.”

Officials in Washington said that the US ultimately sent everything it could, when stocks allowed and when in their assessment capabilities made sense on the battlefield. To that effect, the ramp-up in ammunition supplies has helped to narrow a Russian advantage which had seen them firing several times more shells than the Ukrainians earlier in the conflict.  

Us officials also argue that no single capability is a silver bullet and that Ukraine is now impeded more by a shortage of manpower than weapons.

CIA chief William Burns said earlier this year that there was “a genuine risk of a potential use of tactical nuclear weapons” in the fall of 2022, but that the US and its allies shouldn’t be intimidated by what he called Moscow’s saber-rattling. Burns met his Russian counterpart in Turkey that November to warn him against the use of nuclear weapons.

Nevertheless, as Biden agonized over whether to send more air defenses, longer range missiles, or fighter jets to Kyiv, Putin trained his missiles on Ukraine’s cities. That weakened Kyiv’s economy and the resolve of its people, degrading the war-torn country’s ability to fight back, while Moscow was granted crucial time to prepare and adapt its defenses.

“We do believe that earlier and more would have been quite decisive,” Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze said in an interview. “But it is what it is.”

 

[MillerEP 30898]

https://www.threads.net/@_nickmelnick/post/DDzdUdHIpO4?xmt=AQGzP3qDWLyBvl28fGbg0z1tI47NnjN8vItamwLxoIiVIw

🇺🇦⚡️🇰🇵A North Korean soldier accidentally shot his comrade while attempting to take down an Ukrainian FPV drone.
 

^Lol, just as incompetent as the Russians. It's eerie seeing an uncultivated field of sunflowers. I had never seen that before

 

 

https://www.threads.net/@tata_vladii/post/DDynKe1NiLz?xmt=AQGzP3qDWLyBvl28fGbg0z1tI47NnjN8vItamwLxoIiVIw

📎
Meanwhile, the Black Sea
Black Sea

 

[InkaUtexas 26859]

We do need the capability to add two emojis.

1- FAFO.

2- RAGE.

[KYHorn 17612]

 

Really interesting interview with the Ukrainians in this tank:

 

Russian telegram channels posted videos of fiber optic cable FPV strikes on a Ukrainian Abrams tank in Kursk oblast last week. Aside from a concussion, the crew survived without injury and made it back to friendly lines. @KofmanMichael  and I spoke to the commander of the tank from Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade about what happened, and here is what he told us: (tweeted with his permission) "That's our tank. But they only posted two of the strikes. Yesterday [from last week] was the first time that the crew survived multiple hits while inside a disabled Abrams. Actually, there were 4-6 direct hits. The crew survived, and even without injuries. God bless America. Fiber-optic FPVs. Between four and six hits within like 2 minutes. I believe that at least one more got stuck in the net. Two more missed several minutes before. They apparently hit the engine. They were unable to penetrate either the turret or the hull elsewhere while we were inside. Although they tried and had a lot of time. As I said, this tank had a unique 'cope cage' (actually, 'cope netting') and a lot more ERA than an average Abrams. We – the crew – designed the arrangement of the ERA completely on our own based on an analysis of the previous hits on all the other Abrams tanks and our own knowledge of the weak spots, and that's why we still live after so many simultaneous strikes. And that's why the Abrams rocks. Would be impossible on a [Russian/Soviet] T series tank." Russian FPV crews hit the tank with several more FPVs after it was abandoned, but the tank was not destroyed and might still be salvageable. Because of recent advances, Russian forces may capture it. When I asked how they made it back to friendly lines, "On foot. It was close to the Russian positions. We finished the combat mission and drove back just 1 km from the Russians or even less. We could not evacuate because the FPVs were coming one after another. When I finally could hear no sound, we just jumped out of the tank and ran to a treeline. They were tracking us, so a mortar started working with some more drones, but we crawled away through the treeline. In the end, in a spot still under FPV control, our company commander rushed in and took us away."

 

 

Edited Friday at 04:42 PM by KYHorn

[ABSR 5369]

22 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

I've got to tell you, I have no idea what I am suppose to eat on Tuesdays now.

[PTINS 3500]

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.threads.net/@tata_vladii/post/DDynKe1NiLz?xmt=AQGzP3qDWLyBvl28fGbg0z1tI47NnjN8vItamwLxoIiVIw

📎
Meanwhile, the Black Sea
Black Sea

Here is an image of the crude oil from them Russian oil spill in the Kerch Strait. The link above shows them cleaning in up, 1 shovel at a time.

This is some nasty ass crude oil. The only salvation, I think, is it washed up on the Russia coast, not on Crimea.

The "oil" behind the recent boom in the Permian Basin is a very light condensate, that is on the limit of "crude oil".  A lot of the oil produced is so light that there are penalties that reduce the price of the oil received.

Unfortunately, most of this light oil/heavy condensate is not a good fit for the US refineries that were "modernized" in the 80's-90's to be able to refine the heavier crude oil imported from Mexico and other countries.

While the US is "self sufficient" in oil production, we export the lighter crude produced in the Permian and continue to import heavier crude, primarily from Canada and Mexico. 

Here is an article that shows the some of the different grades of crude oil produced in the US.

Business Insider What crude oil looks like

14 surprising and bizarre photos from oilfield workers reveal what crude oil actually looks like when it comes out of the ground

Business Insider 
Benji Jones
Apr 8, 2020, 11:42 AM CDT

 
Dozens of oil and gas workers shared their photos of crude oil, and they make "black gold" seem like a misnomer. - Tony Hemen

 •    If there's one substance that drives the global economy, it's oil — and oil has had a chaotic couple of months.  
•    The coronavirus pandemic has cratered fuel demand, while at the same time Saudi Arabia has boosted supply.
•    These forces have sent the price into a tailspin and driven companies to bankruptcies, layoffs, and spending cuts. 
•    While oil is at the epicenter of energy news, there's little focus on the substance itself.
•    Business Insider asked dozens of oilfield workers to share their photos. They reveal that crude oil comes in all different colors and consistencies.  

The success of many of the world's corporate giants, which are worth hundreds of billions in market value, depends on a single substance that formed from the ancient remains of algae and plants — oil.

A fossil fuel, oil is one of the planet's largest economic drivers. And in case you missed it, it's had a rocky couple of months.

The coronavirus pandemic has cratered demand for fuel, while at the same time Saudi Arabia has boosted supply. Together, these forces have sent the price of oil into a tailspin, forcing companies to file for bankruptcy, lay off workers, and cut spending by billions. 

All of this is, thanks to just one commodity, which often feels intangible. You hear about oil as a price, or in industry revenue.

But what does it actually look like when it comes out of the ground? 
Business Insider reached out to dozens of US oil and gas workers on Facebook and asked them to share their photos of crude oil.

The images reveal that crude oil comes in all kinds of colors and consistencies. And that the classic image of oil as a thick, black, tar-like substance is often pretty far from what wells pump out of the ground — at least in the US.

 
 Some oil looks like green juice, like this bottle from the Bakken oilfield in North Dakota. - Casey Jones

The ratio of different hydrocarbon molecules and other substances such as sulfur determines the color of crude, according to Foued Badrouchi, a doctoral student in the department of petroleum engineering at the University of North Dakota.

The oil's relative density, known as specific gravity, also affects the color, he said.  

"Crude is different colors when it first comes out of the ground," George Brackett, a member of a Bakken oil and gas Facebook discussion group, wrote on Facebook. "Bakken crude is a green color."

Lighter, or less-dense, crude tends to be more greenish-brown, another member wrote. 

 Here's some more greenish crude in a container called a "thief." - Ramiro Martinez

This crude from West Texas has a low specific gravity, said Ramiro Martinez, another group member, who shared the photo. That's why the liquid is almost translucent. 

Oil workers use containers like these to test the oil's relative density, temperature, and other properties before it goes into a pipeline.  

 
 Sediment can build up in the oil storage tank, which you can see here. - Ted Farni

"When transporting the oil from the well to the pipeline by truck, we need to test the oil to make sure it's good quality," Ted Farni, an oil buyer, wrote on Facebook. "We use tools to get samples and test temperature and gravity." 

In this photo, the lighter-green at the bottom of the thief is sediment.

 
 Here's another green smoothie from North Dakota. - Chad Craver

The tool sticking out measures the oil's specific gravity.

 
 Crude can also be thick and waxy, like this oil from Utah. - Rich Sorenson Junior

Crude oil that has a high proportion of paraffin — a type of hydrocarbon — is thick and waxy, especially at low temperatures. This is an example of a heavier crude with a much higher relative density or higher specific gravity.

"It causes huge problems for us," Badrouchi said. "It's like wax. The oil with a lot of paraffins is so heavy it can clog the well." 
To transport waxy oil, you have to keep it hot.

 
 This crude is from Roosevelt, Utah - Micah Tobias Barker

"All the crude out there is completely saturated with wax to the point that all the tanks are insulated and the oil has to be kept hot to transport," he wrote on Facebook. "We aren't allowed to load it unless it's between 140-180 degrees Fahrenheit."
 
'This is good, clean oil, but high paraffin'

 
 Here's some more waxy oil, this time from Montana. - Steven Unterseher

"Some of the older wells around Killdeer [North Dakota] had so much paraffin in the oil that if you didn't get it off your truck in time in winter you were stuck with basically a candle inside the tank," Steven Unterseher, an oil worker who moderates the Bakken oilfield discussion group, wrote on Facebook. 

Other crude is yellowish, like this one from West Texas...

 
 This crude is much lighter, which is why it looks nearly transparent. - Tony Hemen
"Light crude oil contains a large amount of liquid natural gas," Badrouchi said. Liquid natural gas is essentially natural gas — namely, methane — that's been cooled down or pressurized into a liquid form. 
 
...or even clear, such as this bottle, also from West Texas.

 
 The bottom is water and the top is oil. - Tony Hemen
 
 
 Crude oil can take on an orange color, too. - Tony Hemen

When you see crude in a container like this it indicates that it's been mixed with a solvent and spun in a centrifuge. That allows you to see how much water and sediment the oil contains — in this case, there's a bit of each at the lower tip. 

Water can "accumulate and freeze pipes eventually down the line," Farni said. "Also, if the oil is 2% water or dirt the buyer wants a discount. In volume, it adds up."

  
Or it can even look red. - Ted Farni

"Some of the oil south of the [Missouri River] is this magnificent fluorescent red-orange-yellow-green, all at the same time," Farni said. "It's weird and I'm not sure why other than just the location."

 
 This is another light oil that's been spun in a centrifuge. - Tony Hemen

Again, you can see a small amount of sediment at the lower tip. 

 
 This turquoise crude comes from a natural gas plant in Midland, Texas. - Tony Hemen

Badrouchi says that some natural gas is "wet," meaning that it has a lot of condensation. The condensation is high-gravity crude oil, he said. "This is very high quality because it's very light," he said. 

 
 Even from just two days of hauling oil, you can see a whole range of colors. - Tony Hemen

"Crude oil is actually some pretty interesting stuff," Rich Sorenson Junior, who's also part of the oilfield group, wrote on Facebook. "I just wish people understood it better and how crucial it is to life as we know it."
 

[Parliament 14593]

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

 

The circle of life.

[Trey3216 15452]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

The circle of life.

Twitter users handle, video, and your comment check out.... 

[Deej 77787]

6 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

Really interesting interview with the Ukrainians in this tank:

 

Russian telegram channels posted videos of fiber optic cable FPV strikes on a Ukrainian Abrams tank in Kursk oblast last week. Aside from a concussion, the crew survived without injury and made it back to friendly lines. @KofmanMichael  and I spoke to the commander of the tank from Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade about what happened, and here is what he told us: (tweeted with his permission) "That's our tank. But they only posted two of the strikes. Yesterday [from last week] was the first time that the crew survived multiple hits while inside a disabled Abrams. Actually, there were 4-6 direct hits. The crew survived, and even without injuries. God bless America. Fiber-optic FPVs. Between four and six hits within like 2 minutes. I believe that at least one more got stuck in the net. Two more missed several minutes before. They apparently hit the engine. They were unable to penetrate either the turret or the hull elsewhere while we were inside. Although they tried and had a lot of time. As I said, this tank had a unique 'cope cage' (actually, 'cope netting') and a lot more ERA than an average Abrams. We – the crew – designed the arrangement of the ERA completely on our own based on an analysis of the previous hits on all the other Abrams tanks and our own knowledge of the weak spots, and that's why we still live after so many simultaneous strikes. And that's why the Abrams rocks. Would be impossible on a [Russian/Soviet] T series tank." Russian FPV crews hit the tank with several more FPVs after it was abandoned, but the tank was not destroyed and might still be salvageable. Because of recent advances, Russian forces may capture it. When I asked how they made it back to friendly lines, "On foot. It was close to the Russian positions. We finished the combat mission and drove back just 1 km from the Russians or even less. We could not evacuate because the FPVs were coming one after another. When I finally could hear no sound, we just jumped out of the tank and ran to a treeline. They were tracking us, so a mortar started working with some more drones, but we crawled away through the treeline. In the end, in a spot still under FPV control, our company commander rushed in and took us away."

 

 

The dogs were hungry again and hour later. Thankfully, they found plenty more "food".

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20897]

This is just now breaking but looks to be legit. Ukranian drones hit residential towers in Kazan, Russia. Kazan is about 680 miles from the Ukranian border.


https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/ukrainian-drones-in-russia-9-11-fashion-crash-into-residential-buildings-in-kazan-officials-2024-12-21-967307

[KYHorn 17612]

5 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

This is just now breaking but looks to be legit. Ukranian drones hit residential towers in Kazan, Russia. Kazan is about 680 miles from the Ukranian border.


https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/ukrainian-drones-in-russia-9-11-fashion-crash-into-residential-buildings-in-kazan-officials-2024-12-21-967307

It's interesting that it's both drones hit the exact same spot

"The "Greenwich" residential complex, situated next to the "Azure Shores" skyscraper in Kazan, which was struck by a drone today, may house an apartment belonging to Timur Shagivaleev, the CEO of the "Alabuga" Special Economic Zone"

It seems plausible that the intended target was a high-ranking war criminal. However, it remains unclear whether the strike was successful.

 

Edited 12 hours ago by KYHorn

[KYHorn 17612]

Last night, Russian terrorists launched over 110 strike drones against our people. An oncology center in Kherson was destroyed, apartment buildings in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia were hit, ballistic missiles targeted Kyiv earlier, and shelling struck Sumy, Kryvyi Rih, as well as the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions.

This week alone, the terrorists have used over 550 guided aerial bombs, nearly 550 strike drones, and more than 20 missiles of various types.

This is the Russian terror we are countering. I am grateful to our partners who continue to stand with Ukraine and increase pressure on Russia. Together, through our collective strength, we will secure a lasting peace.

[KYHorn 17612]

"Drone Coalition" to Start Massive Supply of Various Types of Drones to Ukraine in January

"I can confirm that a significant change is expected in January - we will begin supplying tens of thousands of drones through the maritime and unmanned capabilities coalition, which the United Kingdom leads with partners Norway and Latvia," said British Deputy Defense Secretary Pollard.
 

It's incredible how much innovation is coming from Ukraine in this war: 

In early December, the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, “Khartia,” conducted its first fully robotic operation against the enemy in the Kharkiv direction. This shaping operation aimed to create conditions for the brigade’s further advancement.

For the first time, such a large number of robotic and unmanned systems were deployed on the battlefield. The operation involved numerous ground-based robotic systems (drones for mining and demining, kamikaze drones, mobile turrets) and various types of UAVs (heavy multirotor “bombers,” surveillance drones, and diverse FPVs).

“Our goal is to save soldiers’ lives by replacing them on the battlefield, wherever possible, with robotic or unmanned systems. This requires meticulous planning, a continuous search for new engineering solutions, and fostering a culture of innovation within the brigade,” commented Colonel Maksym Holubok, Chief of Staff of the “Khartia” Brigade.

 

Edited 11 hours ago by KYHorn