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4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It doesn’t have to go there - the fact is that historically, pullouts usually don’t go very well, whether it be Vietnam (for us or the French), Afghanistan for the Russians (or Brits or us), various conflicts in Africa (US, Brits, French, the Belgians, although the French seemed to have done it the best in Africa), or some places in South America, or Susan Hofstetter in Galveston in 1994 when her husband came home from work early. Had I studied French military history in Africa, I might have affected a better withdrawal in that last incident, and not left such a lasting memory on her husband, her kids, or the Galveston County Sheriff’s Department.  

Dad!?

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Strong analysis and reporting from Bloomberg on past decision points in this war and where's it's headed. It echoes many of the sentiments expressed on this thread over the past 3 years. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/russia-ukraine-us-allies-say-biden-strategy-was-too-little-too-late-for-ukraine 

Too Little Too Late: US Allies Say Biden Strategy Cost Ukraine Chance of Victory

Spoiler

(Bloomberg) -- In the month Joe Biden has left in office, his administration is focused on using all the resources it has left to deliver military aid for Ukraine and more sanctions aimed at weakening Vladimir Putin’s economy.

Officials in Ukraine and several allied capitals say it’s too little too late. 

Regardless of what Biden does in his final weeks, they said, Ukraine is heading toward a bitter settlement in which President Volodymyr Zelenskiy may have to leave swathes of territory in limbo in exchange for security guarantees that fall short of the NATO membership he’s pleaded for. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that outcome will largely be a consequence of decisions that Biden took, or failed to take, over the past two years.

Despite the US sending more than $90 billion in aid and arms, some allies are frustrated with Biden for stalling on key decisions to deliver more advanced weapons at crucial points in the conflict. 

In the fall of 2022, Ukrainian forces had Putin on the back foot and Zelenskiy was appealing to Biden for more weapons to press home his advantage. But Biden hesitated. His thinking was shaped by the possibility that an escalation might bring Russia’s nuclear arsenal into play, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has suggested. 

“His heart was undoubtedly in the right place — he understood the importance of standing with Ukraine against Russian aggression,” former UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said in an interview. “However, his approach was often too cautious and too hesitant, holding back on delivering the decisive support needed to tip the balance.”

Sullivan has refuted that view, saying on Dec. 7 that the US operation to arm Ukraine both before and during the war had been an “extraordinary feat.” Indeed, US support was critical for ensuring that Ukraine wasn’t overrun, especially at the start of the war, and rallying allies after the invasion.

Other US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, voiced their frustration with some European governments who they said were slow to accept that Putin would invade and then reluctant to ship weapons at all, at least until they learned of the abuses the Russians had perpetrated. Europe has often bristled at tougher sanctions and even as the US position on inviting Ukraine to join NATO appeared to soften, opposition in Berlin and elsewhere remained firm, the officials noted.

The paradox, other officials said, is that the outcome for Ukraine is now similar regardless of whether Biden or Donald Trump are in charge. Trump has called for an immediate ceasefire and his national security nominees have indicated that any deal would likely see Ukraine having to accept freezing its territory along current battle lines and give up its aspiration of joining NATO any time soon.

Behind the incipient blame game lies a deeper truth that frustrates officials on both sides of the Atlantic: for all the talk of European capitals reviving their hard power, the US is still the only NATO country that can tip the balance in a major conflict involving Russia. So the outcome of the war in Ukraine will inevitably be shaped by decisions taken in the White House. 

As a Cold War veteran who joined arms control negotiations with the Soviet Union, Biden was obsessed with the danger of nuclear escalation, one of the officials said. When urged to do more US officials repeatedly said that the risks were just too great. Other allies, like Germany, had similar worries. 

The fundamental problem, according to two senior European officials, was that Biden’s strategy seemed geared to preventing Ukraine from losing, without setting out a path to victory. That, the officials said, left Ukraine locked into a drawn-out conflict costing tens of thousands of lives.

But going all-in wasn’t the only option open to Biden. 

Less than a year into the war, then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley offered an alternative approach which wouldn’t have incurred the same risk of Russian escalation: push Zelenskiy into talks with Putin. 

“The Russian military is really hurting bad,” Milley said in November 2022. “You want to negotiate at a time when you’re at your strength, and your opponent is at weakness.” 

At that point in the conflict, though, such suggestions were considered beyond the pale. The mantra from western officials, in public and private, was that only Zelenskiy and the Ukrainians would decide when to negotiate.

According to a senior European official, Biden had two strategic options: ramp up support to let Kyiv finish the job or push for peace negotiations. He chose neither. 

While the US did increase weapons supplies ahead of the failed counteroffensive of 2023, two former UK officials said they had tried to convince Biden that much more was needed much more quickly, but they ran into his concerns of nuclear escalation. Those concerns were overstated, one UK official said, because at every stage the Russian threats proved illusory.

US officials argue that, on the contrary, sabotage attacks in Europe and Moscow’s increasingly intensive targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure show that Putin was prepared to escalate so they had to take his nuclear threats seriously. 

“The president has another responsibility that’s unique,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at an event in Washington this week. “Where the buck stops is at that desk, and it has been his responsibility to make sure that Ukraine has everything we can possibly provide to deal with the aggression — but also to avoid a direct conflict with with Russia. We don’t need a direct conflict between nuclear-armed powers.”

Officials in Washington said that the US ultimately sent everything it could, when stocks allowed and when in their assessment capabilities made sense on the battlefield. To that effect, the ramp-up in ammunition supplies has helped to narrow a Russian advantage which had seen them firing several times more shells than the Ukrainians earlier in the conflict.  

Us officials also argue that no single capability is a silver bullet and that Ukraine is now impeded more by a shortage of manpower than weapons.

CIA chief William Burns said earlier this year that there was “a genuine risk of a potential use of tactical nuclear weapons” in the fall of 2022, but that the US and its allies shouldn’t be intimidated by what he called Moscow’s saber-rattling. Burns met his Russian counterpart in Turkey that November to warn him against the use of nuclear weapons.

Nevertheless, as Biden agonized over whether to send more air defenses, longer range missiles, or fighter jets to Kyiv, Putin trained his missiles on Ukraine’s cities. That weakened Kyiv’s economy and the resolve of its people, degrading the war-torn country’s ability to fight back, while Moscow was granted crucial time to prepare and adapt its defenses.

“We do believe that earlier and more would have been quite decisive,” Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze said in an interview. “But it is what it is.”

 

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https://www.threads.net/@_nickmelnick/post/DDzdUdHIpO4?xmt=AQGzP3qDWLyBvl28fGbg0z1tI47NnjN8vItamwLxoIiVIw

🇺🇦🇰🇵A North Korean soldier accidentally shot his comrade while attempting to take down an Ukrainian FPV drone.
 

^Lol, just as incompetent as the Russians. It's eerie seeing an uncultivated field of sunflowers. I had never seen that before

 

 

https://www.threads.net/@tata_vladii/post/DDynKe1NiLz?xmt=AQGzP3qDWLyBvl28fGbg0z1tI47NnjN8vItamwLxoIiVIw

📎
Meanwhile, the Black Sea
Black Sea

 

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Really interesting interview with the Ukrainians in this tank:

 

Russian telegram channels posted videos of fiber optic cable FPV strikes on a Ukrainian Abrams tank in Kursk oblast last week. Aside from a concussion, the crew survived without injury and made it back to friendly lines. @KofmanMichael  and I spoke to the commander of the tank from Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade about what happened, and here is what he told us: (tweeted with his permission) "That's our tank. But they only posted two of the strikes. Yesterday [from last week] was the first time that the crew survived multiple hits while inside a disabled Abrams. Actually, there were 4-6 direct hits. The crew survived, and even without injuries. God bless America. Fiber-optic FPVs. Between four and six hits within like 2 minutes. I believe that at least one more got stuck in the net. Two more missed several minutes before. They apparently hit the engine. They were unable to penetrate either the turret or the hull elsewhere while we were inside. Although they tried and had a lot of time. As I said, this tank had a unique 'cope cage' (actually, 'cope netting') and a lot more ERA than an average Abrams. We – the crew – designed the arrangement of the ERA completely on our own based on an analysis of the previous hits on all the other Abrams tanks and our own knowledge of the weak spots, and that's why we still live after so many simultaneous strikes. And that's why the Abrams rocks. Would be impossible on a [Russian/Soviet] T series tank." Russian FPV crews hit the tank with several more FPVs after it was abandoned, but the tank was not destroyed and might still be salvageable. Because of recent advances, Russian forces may capture it. When I asked how they made it back to friendly lines, "On foot. It was close to the Russian positions. We finished the combat mission and drove back just 1 km from the Russians or even less. We could not evacuate because the FPVs were coming one after another. When I finally could hear no sound, we just jumped out of the tank and ran to a treeline. They were tracking us, so a mortar started working with some more drones, but we crawled away through the treeline. In the end, in a spot still under FPV control, our company commander rushed in and took us away."

 

 

Edited by KYHorn
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6 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

Really interesting interview with the Ukrainians in this tank:

 

Russian telegram channels posted videos of fiber optic cable FPV strikes on a Ukrainian Abrams tank in Kursk oblast last week. Aside from a concussion, the crew survived without injury and made it back to friendly lines. @KofmanMichael  and I spoke to the commander of the tank from Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade about what happened, and here is what he told us: (tweeted with his permission) "That's our tank. But they only posted two of the strikes. Yesterday [from last week] was the first time that the crew survived multiple hits while inside a disabled Abrams. Actually, there were 4-6 direct hits. The crew survived, and even without injuries. God bless America. Fiber-optic FPVs. Between four and six hits within like 2 minutes. I believe that at least one more got stuck in the net. Two more missed several minutes before. They apparently hit the engine. They were unable to penetrate either the turret or the hull elsewhere while we were inside. Although they tried and had a lot of time. As I said, this tank had a unique 'cope cage' (actually, 'cope netting') and a lot more ERA than an average Abrams. We – the crew – designed the arrangement of the ERA completely on our own based on an analysis of the previous hits on all the other Abrams tanks and our own knowledge of the weak spots, and that's why we still live after so many simultaneous strikes. And that's why the Abrams rocks. Would be impossible on a [Russian/Soviet] T series tank." Russian FPV crews hit the tank with several more FPVs after it was abandoned, but the tank was not destroyed and might still be salvageable. Because of recent advances, Russian forces may capture it. When I asked how they made it back to friendly lines, "On foot. It was close to the Russian positions. We finished the combat mission and drove back just 1 km from the Russians or even less. We could not evacuate because the FPVs were coming one after another. When I finally could hear no sound, we just jumped out of the tank and ran to a treeline. They were tracking us, so a mortar started working with some more drones, but we crawled away through the treeline. In the end, in a spot still under FPV control, our company commander rushed in and took us away."

 

 

The dogs were hungry again and hour later. Thankfully, they found plenty more "food".

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This is just now breaking but looks to be legit. Ukranian drones hit residential towers in Kazan, Russia. Kazan is about 680 miles from the Ukranian border.


https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/ukrainian-drones-in-russia-9-11-fashion-crash-into-residential-buildings-in-kazan-officials-2024-12-21-967307

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"Drone Coalition" to Start Massive Supply of Various Types of Drones to Ukraine in January

"I can confirm that a significant change is expected in January - we will begin supplying tens of thousands of drones through the maritime and unmanned capabilities coalition, which the United Kingdom leads with partners Norway and Latvia," said British Deputy Defense Secretary Pollard.
 

It's incredible how much innovation is coming from Ukraine in this war: 

In early December, the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, “Khartia,” conducted its first fully robotic operation against the enemy in the Kharkiv direction. This shaping operation aimed to create conditions for the brigade’s further advancement.

For the first time, such a large number of robotic and unmanned systems were deployed on the battlefield. The operation involved numerous ground-based robotic systems (drones for mining and demining, kamikaze drones, mobile turrets) and various types of UAVs (heavy multirotor “bombers,” surveillance drones, and diverse FPVs).

“Our goal is to save soldiers’ lives by replacing them on the battlefield, wherever possible, with robotic or unmanned systems. This requires meticulous planning, a continuous search for new engineering solutions, and fostering a culture of innovation within the brigade,” commented Colonel Maksym Holubok, Chief of Staff of the “Khartia” Brigade.

 

Edited by KYHorn
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As someone who built and raced off road remote control cars, and flew a few remote control airplanes as a child, as well as working in technology... this war is absolutely fascinating. That's not, in any way, to diminish the loss of life nor the pain it causes.

I've said it before, I really do try to mentally actualize the loss of life (Russian or Ukrainian) in these videos to prevent myself from becoming jaded or unempathetic. 

That said, war, as always continues to change and adapt. We've never seen one, to my recollection, fought so much in the lens of social media.

It's really is fascinating and disturbing at the same time.

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6 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

That said, war, as always continues to change and adapt. We've never seen one, to my recollection, fought so much in the lens of social media.

We Gen Xers, assuming you are with us, we were impressed by CNN broadcasting live from Baghdad in 1991 when shit was going down, and we were further impressed in 2003 with all of the embedded journalists hauling ass through the desert.  And we chuckled when Geraldo Riviera fucking gave away the plans to the 101s Airborne Division’s assault on live TV.  And we saw plenty out of Afghanistan from GoPros uploaded after soldiers got to a decent internet connection.

This is definitely another level.

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17 minutes ago, Bevo said:

 

How many jets have been delivered to Ukraine? I heard lots of announcements when countries offered them.

Closest I could find but no numbers:


Ukraine Gets Major $266 Million F-16 Boost From US
Published Dec 11, 2024 at 5:42 AM EST
Updated Dec 12, 2024 at 11:33 AM EST
Ukraine Approves New Droid Fighter Robot With Mounted Machine Gun
By Hugh Cameron
 

The U.S. has authorized a $266 million military package for Ukraine, aimed at supporting the services and repairs required to maintain the country's fleet of F-16 fighter jets.

The announcement came on Tuesday from the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), a branch of the Defense Department focused on weapons transfers and related support to allied nations.

In its release, the DSCA said the State Department had approved the quarter-billion-dollar support package and Congress had been notified of the proposed sale, which when finalized will comprise "sustainment services and related equipment" for Kyiv's fighter jets.

These include the Joint Mission Planning System, a software-based tool used by the Defense Department to coordinate missions for military aircraft and other assets, as well as maintenance services, personnel training and spare parts.

"This proposed sale will support the foreign policy goals and national security objectives of the United States by improving the security of a partner country that is a force for political stability and economic progress in Europe," the DSCA said.

It added that the sale will "improve Ukraine's capability to meet current and future threats by further equipping it to conduct self-defense and regional security missions with a more robust air defense capability" and that the country "will have no difficulty absorbing these articles and services into its armed forces."
F-16
A Danish F-16 at the Farnborough International Airshow 2024, U.K. On Tuesday, the U.S. DSCA announced the approval of a $266 million military package for Ukrainian F-16s. John Keeble/Getty Images

As well as facilitating the transfer of the jets to Ukraine from European nations, the U.S. has in the past helped to upgrade Kyiv's existing fleet.

In late August, the U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Visual Information Distribution Service announced that jets supplied by the Netherlands and Denmark had been fitted with new systems allowing them to conduct "full-spectrum electromagnetic warfare."

"The F-16s are operational and actively participating in Ukraine's combat operations," a State Department official told Newsweek. "The United States, along with its allies and partners, remains committed to supporting the expansion of Ukraine's F-16 program, which includes increasing the number of aircraft, as well as training pilots and maintainers."

Ukraine announced that it had received its first batch of American-made F-16 fighter jets, originally developed for the U.S. Air Force, in August. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed gratitude to the U.S., Denmark and the Netherlands for their support but did not specify which country supplied the shipment.
Read more Ukraine

Ukraine's NATO allies—including Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium—have together promised to send nearly 100 F-16s to Kyiv, according to FlightGlobal, though it is unclear how many have been received or are yet operational.

However, this sum is still insufficient, according to Ukraine. Zelensky told AFP in May that his country would require "120 to 130" F-16s to achieve "parity" with Russia's forces.

When contacted for further information, a State Department official told Newsweek that they were unable to disclose the exact number of F-16s currently in Ukraine "for operational security reasons."

On December 7, Zelensky said his country had received its second shipment of F-16s from Denmark, describing this as "an example of leadership in defending lives that sets Denmark apart."

"The aircraft from the first batch, provided by the Danish people, are already intercepting Russian missiles, saving our people's lives and our infrastructure," Zelensky posted to X. "Now, our air shield has been further strengthened. If all partners were as determined, Russian terror could already have been made impossible."

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Kyiv: 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that over 3,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded fighting against Ukraine's incursion in Russia's Kursk region.

Pyongyang has sent thousands of troops to reinforce the Russian military, including in the Kursk border region where Ukraine mounted a shock border incursion in August.

Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on X that "according to preliminary data, the number of North Korean soldiers killed and wounded in the Kursk region has already exceeded 3,000".

South Korea said earlier Monday that around 1,100 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded since entering combat in December.  The Ukrainian president said he had received a report from army commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky on the situation in the Kursk region and warned of "risks of North Korea sending additional troops and military equipment to the Russian army".

Volodymyr Zelensky said the world needs to understand that "growing cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang" leads to a proportionate increase in "risk of destabilization around the Korean Peninsula and in neighboring regions or waters".

(note: I copied this from an Indian newspaper, who says that the article was not verified, and that it came from a foreign source.   Looking around I see the 1100 fatalities statistic mentioned and several other articles today.)

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Kyiv:  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that over 3,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded fighting against Ukraine's incursion in Russia's Kursk region.
Pyongyang has sent thousands of troops to reinforce the Russian military, including in the Kursk border region where Ukraine mounted a shock border incursion in August.
Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on X that "according to preliminary data, the number of North Korean soldiers killed and wounded in the Kursk region has already exceeded 3,000".
South Korea said earlier Monday that around 1,100 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded since entering combat in December.  The Ukrainian president said he had received a report from army commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky on the situation in the Kursk region and warned of "risks of North Korea sending additional troops and military equipment to the Russian army".
Volodymyr Zelensky said the world needs to understand that "growing cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang" leads to a proportionate increase in "risk of destabilization around the Korean Peninsula and in neighboring regions or waters".
(note: I copied this from an Indian newspaper, who says that the article was not verified, and that it came from a foreign source.   Looking around I see the 1100 fatalities statistic mentioned and several other articles today.)

Wellbye.gif
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A local Russian official was driving near the Ukrainian border in the Belgorod region and his FPV detector started beeping.

The image on the monitor shows the video signal of the FPV drone: a "Rusoriz" drone flying over the highway. 
The driver turned around and drove into the forest. 

And the drone found a target in the form of a loaf of bread and destroyed it.

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Dead dolphins continue to be found in the Kerch Strait

At least 18 dead dolphins have been found in the Kerch Strait after the fuel oil spill.

The fuel oil, which entered the water after the tanker wreck, poses a deadly threat to dolphins - if it gets into their stomachs, they suffocate.

Edited by KYHorn
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CNN

 — 

An explosion sank a sanctioned Russian cargo ship in the Mediterranean Sea on Monday night, Russian authorities said, leaving two crew members missing.

 

The crisis center of the Russian Foreign Ministry said the vessel, Ursa Major, sank south of Spain after a blast in the engine room. It was traveling through the Mediterranean after traversing the Strait of Gibraltar, the narrow sliver of ocean between Europe and Africa.

 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/12/24/europe/russia-cargo-ship-sinks-intl

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On 12/23/2024 at 10:58 AM, Blackcat00 said:

My other half is a GA grad, so I will be in New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl against ND. 

Any recommendations on watch parties for the Horns in NOLA earlier in the day? Hookem. 

Not sure if there is a watch party, but Manning's might be an option.

I'm curious which pictures of Arch they picked to hang on the walls. I new the next time I was in New Orleans, he would have a picture in there.

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5 hours ago, flatdawgs said:

(Brisket's son's visa issue reminded me that the multi-year visa processing delay I'm dealing with in Portugal is due in the main to that country's very open-armed Ukrainian refugee policy and prioritizing their visas, and as such it is something I do not mind in the least.)

what i'm reading is that there's going to be even more ridiculously good looking people in portugal in about 20 years. right as i'm in my prime sugar baby years.

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11 hours ago, flatdawgs said:

(Brisket's son's visa issue reminded me that the multi-year visa processing delay I'm dealing with in Portugal is due in the main to that country's very open-armed Ukrainian refugee policy and prioritizing their visas, and as such it is something I do not mind in the least.)

I've been waiting roughly a couple years so far too, feel the same.

The Kyiv Independent has an article up:

 

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