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Posted
19 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Or tfg could just say, “It’s signed!! Toldja!!” Then brag about it tonight.

Then we all find out Wednesday morning it was a big fat lie. Then by Wednesday afternoon he’ll be on to the next chaos grenade. Repeat ad nauseum.

So he didn't exactly do this, but he kinda did.  He didn't come out and say "it's signed" but he said appreciated Zelensky's message.  So, chaos grenade pulled back for today.

 

Posted
8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Still doesn't matter.  Promise him whatever he wants.  Knowing that you have zero intention of keeping your promise (just like your counterparty).  

There are plenty of cultures that conduct business that way, he doesn't exactly have to reinvent the wheel here.

Promise The Donald whatever he wants. He can't remember what he said 2 days ago.

The documents are signed by the US Govt so the US Govt can spend their money to extract raw minerals from a foreign country. That requires Congressional cooperation at some point, which is more polarized than ever. That won't be happening for some time.

Even then, there will not be "peace" in the region to the extent necessary to entice American Companies to put American boots, machinery and $$$ in that region until DJT is long gone. Rebuilding homes, schools and infrastructure will happen before  mineral development. 

Designate Mariupol as the Port of Call for all Ukraine mineral exports to the US, with a toll booth at the Kerch Strait. 

F*ck the Donald. 

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Posted
56 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Promise The Donald whatever he wants. He can't remember what he said 2 days ago.

The documents are signed by the US Govt so the US Govt can spend their money to extract raw minerals from a foreign country. That requires Congressional cooperation at some point, which is more polarized than ever. That won't be happening for some time.

Even then, there will not be "peace" in the region to the extent necessary to entice American Companies to put American boots, machinery and $$$ in that region until DJT is long gone. Rebuilding homes, schools and infrastructure will happen before  mineral development. 

Designate Mariupol as the Port of Call for all Ukraine mineral exports to the US, with a toll booth at the Kerch Strait. 

F*ck the Donald. 

A whole lot of this.  Think that US Extraction Co wants to invest hundreds of millions to extract minerals in an area that hasn't been cleared of mines and unexploded ordinance?  Without housing for employees?  

DJT is bargaining for a "prize" that nobody with the ability to grab it actually wants right now, or anytime soon.  Give it to him, because who gives a fuck?

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Posted (edited)

Russian Oil Exports just surged.  Talk of loosening restrictions, no more cyber against Russia apparently, emasculation of Zelensky, paired with eternal deference to Putin. And today freeze on intelligence sharing.  

Well... it's been a very, very good year for Putin!

Edited by horn4life
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Posted
2 hours ago, PTINS said:

Promise The Donald whatever he wants. He can't remember what he said 2 days ago.

The documents are signed by the US Govt so the US Govt can spend their money to extract raw minerals from a foreign country. That requires Congressional cooperation at some point, which is more polarized than ever. That won't be happening for some time.

Even then, there will not be "peace" in the region to the extent necessary to entice American Companies to put American boots, machinery and $$$ in that region until DJT is long gone. Rebuilding homes, schools and infrastructure will happen before  mineral development. 

Designate Mariupol as the Port of Call for all Ukraine mineral exports to the US, with a toll booth at the Kerch Strait. 

F*ck the Donald. 

They will drop in labor camps and clean as they go. Going to be some big EOD contracts for sure, but even that is hit and miss. You do not completely clean an area. Nope. Shit remains and gets missed.

Rubble? What do you do with it? Mount Trump?

Schools? Homes? Nope. Don't move the worker's families, just the workers. All the rest comes later. Only infrastructure to be fixed is what they need to get started.

 

Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

A whole lot of this.  Think that US Extraction Co wants to invest hundreds of millions to extract minerals in an area that hasn't been cleared of mines and unexploded ordinance?  Without housing for employees?  

DJT is bargaining for a "prize" that nobody with the ability to grab it actually wants right now, or anytime soon.  Give it to him, because who gives a fuck?

Yes. They will. They will build camps, dining facilities, fix a regional airport, etc. Only business that will take off are B&B's. Bars and Brothels.

Posted
12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yes. They will. They will build camps, dining facilities, fix a regional airport, etc. Only business that will take off are B&B's. Bars and Brothels.

Still gotta get past the mines and UO.  Expensive equipment going boom (and it's expensive/impossible to insure against stuff that goes boom as a result of a war) is not a good business move.  Sure, once that's done, they can build camps and such, and fix airports...but that alone actually sends some economic juice to the area.

Of course, there's also the very, very important point that Ukraine has absolutely no intention of sticking with that agreement.  Any deal made under such duress is garbage, and one made with Trump is a whole garbage scow.

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Posted
58 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Russian Oil Exports just surged.  Talk of loosening restrictions, no more cyber against Russia apparently, emasculation of Zelensky, paired with eternal deference to Putin. And today freeze on intelligence sharing.  

Well... it's been a very, very good year for Putin!

And WTI crude is down 3% today.  Is there a link?  More Russian oil = less US oil?

Posted
2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

And WTI crude is down 3% today.  Is there a link?  More Russian oil = less US oil?

Who does Dear Leader want to serve more: 1) American workers and oil producers, or 2) Putin?

Yes, that was a rhetorical question.  I truly can't imagine the level of idiot you would have to be to answer 1).

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Still gotta get past the mines and UO.  Expensive equipment going boom (and it's expensive/impossible to insure against stuff that goes boom as a result of a war) is not a good business move.  Sure, once that's done, they can build camps and such, and fix airports...but that alone actually sends some economic juice to the area.

Of course, there's also the very, very important point that Ukraine has absolutely no intention of sticking with that agreement.  Any deal made under such duress is garbage, and one made with Trump is a whole garbage scow.

Nope. EOD goes in first while initial camp is being built. Lots of ground work to do before the equipment comes in. And yes, there will be infrastructure will be maintenance of said equipment.

Security, EOD, Survey/Launch, Life Support and then the work force starts to trickle in. Just look at how they did the LNG plant in Mozambique as a model.

Posted
3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Just look at how they did the LNG plant in Mozambique as a model.

I must confess....my background on LNG plant operations in Mozambique is....limited.

Had you said "Guyana," I'd be your man.  

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Posted
Nope. EOD goes in first while initial camp is being built. Lots of ground work to do before the equipment comes in. And yes, there will be infrastructure will be maintenance of said equipment.
Security, EOD, Survey/Launch, Life Support and then the work force starts to trickle in. Just look at how they did the LNG plant in Mozambique as a model.

Thanks for reminding me I need to get back to Socorro this year.
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I must confess....my background on LNG plant operations in Mozambique is....limited.

Had you said "Guyana," I'd be your man.  

Mocímboa da Praia is a port town in Mozambique that's a key link for the Mozambique LNG project. The project is a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) development on the Afungi Peninsula in Cabo Delgado.

 Project overview
  • The project involves developing offshore gas fields and constructing a liquefaction plant
  • The project has over 65 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves
  • The project is expected to produce 43 million tons of LNG per year
  • The project is a collaboration between TotalEnergies, Mitsui, ENH, PTT, ONGC, Bharat Petroleum, and Oil India

 

Kind of a big project. Ukraine will be like it. For US would be the ag programs in S Afghanistan.

 

Edited by InkaUtexas
tried to add a map.
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Posted
3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Still doesn't matter.  Promise him whatever he wants.  Knowing that you have zero intention of keeping your promise (just like your counterparty).  

There are plenty of cultures that conduct business that way, he doesn't exactly have to reinvent the wheel here.

image.gif.cba97d3c7b27e5580cc69a7ab146ed68.gif

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Posted
2 hours ago, Parliament said:

And WTI crude is down 3% today.  Is there a link?  More Russian oil = less US oil?

Oil is a zero sum game. All the production goes in a bucket, and the demand sucks it out. The push-pull difference is inventory change, which along with the supply demand fundamentals, emotions, politics, and longer term contracts and alliances, impacts the price of oil.

I've not seen a good estimate on how much Russian oil production taken out of the market, willingly or otherwise. Whatever that number is, the world market has balanced that increment.

Even with Russian production being less than 2022, the world supply has increased ~ 4 million bbl/day.

Brent Crude Prices are ~ $10/bbl less now than 3 years ago (11.6% less), and world oil production has increased ~ 4% as of Oct 2024. The differences is a combination of Supply-demand fundamentals, and the "impending war premium" built into the Feb 2022 price.

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

They will drop in labor camps and clean as they go. Going to be some big EOD contracts for sure, but even that is hit and miss. You do not completely clean an area. Nope. Shit remains and gets missed.

Rubble? What do you do with it? Mount Trump?

Schools? Homes? Nope. Don't move the worker's families, just the workers. All the rest comes later. Only infrastructure to be fixed is what they need to get started.

Sorry, I meant schools and homes for the general populace of Ukraine, like Bakhmut, Kherson and Kharkiv and not the infrastructure for the mining camps. I would think Ukraine would spend whatever money have on rebuilding war-torn infrastructure before they fund grass-roots mineral development.

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Nope. EOD goes in first while initial camp is being built. Lots of ground work to do before the equipment comes in. And yes, there will be infrastructure will be maintenance of said equipment.

Security, EOD, Survey/Launch, Life Support and then the work force starts to trickle in. Just look at how they did the LNG plant in Mozambique as a model.

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I must confess....my background on LNG plant operations in Mozambique is....limited.

Had you said "Guyana," I'd be your man.  

Not sure about Mozambique or Guyana, but let me tell you about North Dakota..., or West Virginia.

The North Dakota man-camps were mostly built by entrepreneurial 3rd parties and not so much the operating companies. I have no first hand knowledge of the camps, but they appeared to be well run facilities, with very restrictive alcohol and female policies. 

Whatever you think of Oil & Gas in general, one thing the downstream sector does very well is manage their multi-billion dollar capital investments.  They don't leave much to chance whatever they do, especially in non-US locations.  They have to, or their boo-boos make gigantic fireballs.

I went down in a West Virginia Coal in 1981 mine that had a coal slurry pipeline to move the coal from below ground to above ground. It was more efficient and cheaper, and used less people.  The "control room" below ground consisted of a cutaway nook in the coal seam, with what looked like a bench seat from a Buick at the "control console." That was one of the choice jobs, working in a cold ass coal mine 800 feet below ground. They were lucky, they got to stand up at work.

The looks I got from the miners you never forget; I represented everything that was bad in their lives, a corporate college kid walking amongst people who depended on a shitty collective bargaining agreement for their livelihood. Y'all be nice when you talk about the Mountaineers.

I'm not sure how well non-energy entities do large capital foreign development, but from what I know of mining, I don't think you would confuse it with O&G.

I know how much Surly enjoys hearing about Charleston, SC, so I will save my comments about Charleston, WV for another time. One of my most fun corporate events ever (1995ish), and the local talent was off the charts.

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Mocímboa da Praia is a port town in Mozambique that's a key link for the . The project is a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) development on the Afungi Peninsula in Cabo Delgado.

 Project overview
  • The project involves developing offshore gas fields and constructing a liquefaction plant
  • The project has over 65 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves
  • The project is expected to produce 43 million tons of LNG per year
  • The project is a collaboration between TotalEnergies, Mitsui, ENH, PTT, ONGC, Bharat Petroleum, and Oil India

Kind of a big project. Ukraine will be like it. For US would be the ag programs in S Afghanistan.

The amount of new World Class LNG projects coming online is staggering.

Mozambique LNG is equivalent to all of the Russian LNG capacity and about half of the US LNG capacity as of 2023.

Mozambique is a bit larger than Texas with a similar population.

How cruel to be sitting on top of world class gas reserves, in an African nation 750 miles from the equator that doesn't need heat. Hopefully some these revenues translate to power generation and improvements for the people.

I remember when my HS bud joined the Marine Corp and went to Japan. When I asked him what Hiroshima looked like, he said "Houston." I'm equally ignorant about Africa. 

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Sorry, I meant schools and homes for the general populace of Ukraine, like Bakhmut, Kherson and Kharkiv and not the infrastructure for the mining camps. I would think Ukraine would spend whatever money have on rebuilding war-torn infrastructure before they fund grass-roots mineral development.

 

The North Dakota man-camps were mostly built by entrepreneurial 3rd parties and not so much the operating companies. I have no first hand knowledge of the camps, but they appeared to be well run facilities, with very restrictive alcohol and female policies.

The amount of new World Class LNG projects coming online is staggering.

Mozambique LNG is equivalent to all of the Russian LNG capacity and about half of the US LNG capacity as of 2023.

Mozambique is a bit larger than Texas with a similar population.

How cruel to be sitting on top of world class gas reserves, in an African nation 750 miles from the equator that doesn't need heat. Hopefully some these revenues translate to power generation and improvements for the people.

 

1. Nope. Extract first.

2- Enforcement and culture. Yes, the bigs have rules. The littles don't. So Rio Tinto? Yeah, no hookers. They are in the next town over for your 2 days off every 14. Eastern Europe was not known for its environmental controls. I do not expect this to be done at US or EU standards. Won't be on a China level, but lots of desperate people looking to make a buck working for large corporations who are kicking it in Gstaad, Dubai and New York. Also, what was mining/steel like before 2014 in this area? So at best we will get that.

3- Yes, it is massive. And zero development outside worker sites really. That is why there is a pretty mean insurgency there.

4- Already has buyers interested. Problem is number of ships available to transport it.

Happy to discuss in the Mozambique thread.

Edited by InkaUtexas
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Posted

Pretty much only confirms suspicions that have been voiced around here: it was an ambush.

 

How Soon Could Ukraine’s Forces ‘Start to Buckle’ Without U.S. Weapons?
It could be as little as four months, say analysts, as Europe scrambles to plug the hole in support left by President Trump’s suspension of military aid.

image.thumb.png.acaa664b60a10c032de42cd4918237cf.png

Without billions of dollars in American-made weapons, it may be only a matter of time before Ukraine’s forces falter against Russia.

How much time, however, depends on how quickly Europe and Ukraine can make up for the artillery, missiles, air-defense systems and other arms that Trump administration officials said on Monday were being put on hold.

The United States had committed to delivering as much as $11 billion in weapons and equipment to Ukraine this year. Some of it was from Pentagon stockpiles, while some was ordered through new defense contracts, according to a new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. A former senior U.S. defense official on Tuesday said the actual figure was likely closer to $9 billion.

Despite Europe’s pledges of unwavering support for Ukraine, which have only intensified since the Trump administration began pulling back, it would be nearly impossible for it to fill the weapons gap quickly. European defense industries have ramped up, but only in fits and starts. And individual countries need to maintain their own weapons stockpiles.

image.png.7bbe7424b6d34411a310a5004528a01e.png

“Europe can’t possibly replace American aid,” the former deputy of Ukraine’s military general staff, Lt. Gen. Ihor Romanenko, said last month.

Ukraine itself has been churning out drones and building up domestically made artillery systems, and it plans to spend 26 percent of its budget on defense this year. But some top Ukrainian officials say the military will be in dire straits if American support is not restarted.

“Ukraine definitely has a safety margin of about six months even without systematic assistance from the United States, but it will be much more difficult, of course,” one lawmaker, Fedir Venislavskyi, told the news agency RBC-Ukraine on Tuesday.

Some analysts say they think even that may be overly optimistic.

“Certainly, by the four-month time period, their forces would start to buckle, because they just wouldn’t have enough munitions and equipment to replace what they’ve lost,” said one of the authors of the Center for Strategic and International Studies study, Mark F. Cancian, a former White House weapons strategist.

Why can’t Europe fill the gap?
Of the $136 billion in military aid that allies provided Ukraine from the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022 to the end of last year, nearly half came from the United States, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research organization.

The American share has dwindled over time as the defense industries in Ukraine and Europe have accelerated production. Only about 20 percent of military hardware currently supplied to Ukraine comes from the United States, according to recent estimates by the Royal United Services Institute, an analytical group affiliated with the British military.

“But the 20 percent is the most lethal and important,” said Malcolm Chalmers, the institute’s deputy director general. Ukraine won’t abruptly collapse without the American weapons, Mr. Chalmers predicted. “The effect,” he said, “will be cumulative.”

The United States, the world’s largest economy, simply has more resources at its disposal. Its Air Force, for example, has 17 large electronic surveillance aircraft, while Britain has only three, according to Douglas Barrie, a military aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. The United States contributes over half of all NATO’s fighter jets and ground-attack aircraft.

Citing the “short-term urgency to act,” the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on Tuesday announced a $841 billion plan to increase defense budgets across Europe and encourage joint procurement among states to speed weapons manufacturing. But previous efforts have fallen short, with E.U. countries pulled between domestic spending priorities and defense contractors unable to produce vast amounts of costly weapons without upfront capital.

Ms. von der Leyen seemed to acknowledge this.

“The real question in front of us is whether Europe is prepared to act as decisively as the situation dictates, and whether Europe is ready and able to act with speed and with the ambition that is needed,” she said.

Artillery production in Europe is now nearly able to keep up with the wartime demands, said Camille Grand, who was NATO’s assistant secretary general for defense investment when Russia invaded. That is a remarkable turnabout for an industry that had atrophied after the end of the Cold War in 1991.

But manufacturers of more advanced weapons like the air defenses Ukraine says are crucial to its survival are still struggling to quickly produce those systems in large numbers. It can take years to hire and train additional workers, expand factory space and obtain rare earths and other raw materials in a competitive market that has been slowed by a limited supply chain.

And industry executives say they cannot invest in those improvements without the guarantee of contracts that generally run for at least a decade, and that some governments have been unwilling to provide.

“We are not on a real war economy footage as we speak, certainly by comparison with Russia,” said Mr. Grand, now a weapons expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He said it would take more political will in Europe to get defense contracts rolling: “Money is not sufficient to solve everything.”

What is Ukraine doing to arm itself?
Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, insisted on social media this week that “of course, our military, the government, have the capabilities, the tools to maintain the situation on the front line.” But he would not disclose what is left in Ukraine’s stockpile, likely to prevent exposing any vulnerabilities to Russia.

Mr. Shmyhal said that Ukraine would be able to produce enough artillery for itself by later this year, and that it was building its own armored vehicles and antitank weapons. Last year, Ukraine built more than one million first-person-view  drones, and intends to increase production in 2025.

Ukraine is also reportedly trying to produce air defenses as sophisticated as the American-made Patriot system, which can intercept ballistic missiles. Each Patriot system — consisting of interceptor missiles, launchers, radar and a command center — can cost $1 billion and takes up to two years to build.

Of the seven Patriot air defense systems that the United States and Germany have given Ukraine, at least two have been destroyed, according to the weapons tracking site Oryx. Shorter-range air defenses have been sent by Britain, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Romania, among others.

But Ukraine is the second-largest country in Europe, and the Russian bombardment has been incessant. “You’re always going to have to pick and choose — you aren’t going to be able to defend against everything,” said Mr. Barrie, the military aerospace expert.

‘Doomed?’
In his study, titled “Is Ukraine Now Doomed?” Mr. Cancian predicted that without U.S. military aid, Kyiv would be forced to accept an unfavorable cease-fire agreement with Russia. That might mean ceding a fifth of its territory and giving up its aspirations to join NATO.

And some allies might now decide to cut back their own aid, reasoning that without American support, “this is a lost cause,” Mr. Cancian said in an interview.

Along with the suspended military aid, the Trump administration also paused sharing intelligence with Ukraine, the C.I.A.’s director, John Ratcliffe, said in an interview with Fox Business News on Wednesday. He predicted that the pause “will go away” if President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine shows more willingness to work on Mr. Trump’s plan for a cease-fire with Russia.

Fears also have been raised recently that Ukraine will lose access to the Starlink satellite internet system that facilitates military communication and is owned by Elon Musk, Mr. Trump’s close ally.

But it is clear that “halting security assistance will only make it more challenging for Ukraine to reach a just and lasting end to this war,” said David Shimer, who was the National Security Council’s director for Eastern Europe and Ukraine during the Biden administration.

“It will reduce Ukraine’s leverage, weaken the Ukrainian military, and therefore undermine Ukraine’s negotiating position with Russia,” Mr. Shimer said. “The United States should be focused on strengthening, not weakening, Ukraine’s hand ahead of a negotiation.”

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Posted
3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

1. Nope. Extract first.

2- Enforcement and culture. Yes, the bigs have rules. The littles don't. So Rio Tinto? Yeah, no hookers. They are in the next town over for your 2 days off every 14. Eastern Europe was not known for its environmental controls. I do not expect this to be done at US or EU standards. Won't be on a China level, but lots of desperate people looking to make a buck working for large corporations who are kicking it in Gstaad, Dubai and New York. Also, what was mining/steel like before 2014 in this area? So at best we will get that.

3- Yes, it is massive. And zero development outside worker sites really. That is why there is a pretty mean insurgency there.

4- Already has buyers interested. Problem is number of ships available to transport it.

Happy to discuss in the Mozambique thread.

Happy to discuss in the Mozambique thread.

Where, please?

Posted
7 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Who does Dear Leader want to serve more: 1) American workers and oil producers, or 2) Putin?

Yes, that was a rhetorical question.  I truly can't imagine the level of idiot you would have to be to answer 1).

See, all we have to do is give Putin everything he wanted and a bunch of stuff he didn’t even think to ask for, then, THEN once Ukraine has nothing to concede, he MIGHT consider starting the peace process that could easily take 5 years to actually stop the fighting. Trump remains a master negotiator 

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Posted (edited)

I’m so fucking pissed off by the insane decisions of Trump, and the celebrations from the right that we’re abandoning Ukraine. Zelenskyy should sign whatever horse shit Trump wants while assuming Trump will provide no aid (check!), no intel (check!), lift Russian sanctions (give it a day), cut starlink from Ukraine (give it a week), return the $5B of Russian assets frozen in NY (give it a month), and economically pressure our allies not to help Ukraine (he’s already discussing Germany’s nordstream with Russia). This cocksucker views 1984 as an instruction manual 


 

IMG_2958.png

Edited by B00M
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, bolverk said:

Pretty much only confirms suspicions that have been voiced around here: it was an ambush.

 

How Soon Could Ukraine’s Forces ‘Start to Buckle’ Without U.S. Weapons?
It could be as little as four months, say analysts, as Europe scrambles to plug the hole in support left by President Trump’s suspension of military aid.

image.thumb.png.acaa664b60a10c032de42cd4918237cf.png

Without billions of dollars in American-made weapons, it may be only a matter of time before Ukraine’s forces falter against Russia.

How much time, however, depends on how quickly Europe and Ukraine can make up for the artillery, missiles, air-defense systems and other arms that Trump administration officials said on Monday were being put on hold.

The United States had committed to delivering as much as $11 billion in weapons and equipment to Ukraine this year. Some of it was from Pentagon stockpiles, while some was ordered through new defense contracts, according to a new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. A former senior U.S. defense official on Tuesday said the actual figure was likely closer to $9 billion.

Despite Europe’s pledges of unwavering support for Ukraine, which have only intensified since the Trump administration began pulling back, it would be nearly impossible for it to fill the weapons gap quickly. European defense industries have ramped up, but only in fits and starts. And individual countries need to maintain their own weapons stockpiles.

image.png.7bbe7424b6d34411a310a5004528a01e.png

“Europe can’t possibly replace American aid,” the former deputy of Ukraine’s military general staff, Lt. Gen. Ihor Romanenko, said last month.

Ukraine itself has been churning out drones and building up domestically made artillery systems, and it plans to spend 26 percent of its budget on defense this year. But some top Ukrainian officials say the military will be in dire straits if American support is not restarted.

“Ukraine definitely has a safety margin of about six months even without systematic assistance from the United States, but it will be much more difficult, of course,” one lawmaker, Fedir Venislavskyi, told the news agency RBC-Ukraine on Tuesday.

Some analysts say they think even that may be overly optimistic.

“Certainly, by the four-month time period, their forces would start to buckle, because they just wouldn’t have enough munitions and equipment to replace what they’ve lost,” said one of the authors of the Center for Strategic and International Studies study, Mark F. Cancian, a former White House weapons strategist.

Why can’t Europe fill the gap?
Of the $136 billion in military aid that allies provided Ukraine from the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022 to the end of last year, nearly half came from the United States, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research organization.

The American share has dwindled over time as the defense industries in Ukraine and Europe have accelerated production. Only about 20 percent of military hardware currently supplied to Ukraine comes from the United States, according to recent estimates by the Royal United Services Institute, an analytical group affiliated with the British military.

“But the 20 percent is the most lethal and important,” said Malcolm Chalmers, the institute’s deputy director general. Ukraine won’t abruptly collapse without the American weapons, Mr. Chalmers predicted. “The effect,” he said, “will be cumulative.”

The United States, the world’s largest economy, simply has more resources at its disposal. Its Air Force, for example, has 17 large electronic surveillance aircraft, while Britain has only three, according to Douglas Barrie, a military aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. The United States contributes over half of all NATO’s fighter jets and ground-attack aircraft.

Citing the “short-term urgency to act,” the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on Tuesday announced a $841 billion plan to increase defense budgets across Europe and encourage joint procurement among states to speed weapons manufacturing. But previous efforts have fallen short, with E.U. countries pulled between domestic spending priorities and defense contractors unable to produce vast amounts of costly weapons without upfront capital.

Ms. von der Leyen seemed to acknowledge this.

“The real question in front of us is whether Europe is prepared to act as decisively as the situation dictates, and whether Europe is ready and able to act with speed and with the ambition that is needed,” she said.

Artillery production in Europe is now nearly able to keep up with the wartime demands, said Camille Grand, who was NATO’s assistant secretary general for defense investment when Russia invaded. That is a remarkable turnabout for an industry that had atrophied after the end of the Cold War in 1991.

But manufacturers of more advanced weapons like the air defenses Ukraine says are crucial to its survival are still struggling to quickly produce those systems in large numbers. It can take years to hire and train additional workers, expand factory space and obtain rare earths and other raw materials in a competitive market that has been slowed by a limited supply chain.

And industry executives say they cannot invest in those improvements without the guarantee of contracts that generally run for at least a decade, and that some governments have been unwilling to provide.

“We are not on a real war economy footage as we speak, certainly by comparison with Russia,” said Mr. Grand, now a weapons expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He said it would take more political will in Europe to get defense contracts rolling: “Money is not sufficient to solve everything.”

What is Ukraine doing to arm itself?
Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, insisted on social media this week that “of course, our military, the government, have the capabilities, the tools to maintain the situation on the front line.” But he would not disclose what is left in Ukraine’s stockpile, likely to prevent exposing any vulnerabilities to Russia.

Mr. Shmyhal said that Ukraine would be able to produce enough artillery for itself by later this year, and that it was building its own armored vehicles and antitank weapons. Last year, Ukraine built more than one million first-person-view  drones, and intends to increase production in 2025.

Ukraine is also reportedly trying to produce air defenses as sophisticated as the American-made Patriot system, which can intercept ballistic missiles. Each Patriot system — consisting of interceptor missiles, launchers, radar and a command center — can cost $1 billion and takes up to two years to build.

Of the seven Patriot air defense systems that the United States and Germany have given Ukraine, at least two have been destroyed, according to the weapons tracking site Oryx. Shorter-range air defenses have been sent by Britain, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Romania, among others.

But Ukraine is the second-largest country in Europe, and the Russian bombardment has been incessant. “You’re always going to have to pick and choose — you aren’t going to be able to defend against everything,” said Mr. Barrie, the military aerospace expert.

‘Doomed?’
In his study, titled “Is Ukraine Now Doomed?” Mr. Cancian predicted that without U.S. military aid, Kyiv would be forced to accept an unfavorable cease-fire agreement with Russia. That might mean ceding a fifth of its territory and giving up its aspirations to join NATO.

And some allies might now decide to cut back their own aid, reasoning that without American support, “this is a lost cause,” Mr. Cancian said in an interview.

Along with the suspended military aid, the Trump administration also paused sharing intelligence with Ukraine, the C.I.A.’s director, John Ratcliffe, said in an interview with Fox Business News on Wednesday. He predicted that the pause “will go away” if President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine shows more willingness to work on Mr. Trump’s plan for a cease-fire with Russia.

Fears also have been raised recently that Ukraine will lose access to the Starlink satellite internet system that facilitates military communication and is owned by Elon Musk, Mr. Trump’s close ally.

But it is clear that “halting security assistance will only make it more challenging for Ukraine to reach a just and lasting end to this war,” said David Shimer, who was the National Security Council’s director for Eastern Europe and Ukraine during the Biden administration.

“It will reduce Ukraine’s leverage, weaken the Ukrainian military, and therefore undermine Ukraine’s negotiating position with Russia,” Mr. Shimer said. “The United States should be focused on strengthening, not weakening, Ukraine’s hand ahead of a negotiation.”

that's pretty demoralizing, I think the only counter to this is France, Germany, Poland and the UK putting troops on the ground and the French and British doing so in numbers with a clear message Ukraine is now de facto nuclear. absent that, I think this article is likely true.

unfortunately, that does mean war with Russia and no matter how you technically define a World War - Russia fighting in Ukraine with French, German, British and Polish troops present on the ground (and anyone else that will join) is pretty much what we called a World War in I and in II.

Bryan Cranston Reaction GIF

Edited by troph
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Posted
9 minutes ago, B00M said:

I’m so fucking pissed off by the insane decisions of Trump, and the celebrations from the right that we’re abandoning Ukraine. Zelenskyy should sign whatever horse shit Trump wants while assuming Trump will provide no aid (check!), no intel (check!), cut starlink from Ukraine (give it a week), return the $5B of Russian assets frozen in NY (give it a month), and economically pressure our allies not to help Ukraine (he’s already discussing Germany’s nordstream with Russia). This cocksucker views 1984 as an instruction manual 


 

IMG_2958.png

Pretty much aligns with the spheres of influence that they seem to be going for.

Posted
that's pretty demoralizing, I think the only counter to this is France, Germany, Poland and the UK putting troops on the ground and the French and British doing so in numbers with a clear message Ukraine is now de facto nuclear. absent that, I think this article is likely true.
unfortunately, that does mean war with Russia and no matter how you technically define a World War - Russia fighting in Ukraine with French, German, British and Polish troops present on the ground (and anyone else that will join) is pretty much what we called a World War in I and in II.
200.gif?cid=7d15de79xk9060xhb3fzrz24c1fmqg8ga0vl1hao56552ooo&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=200.gif&ct=g

The irony of Trump screaming “you’re risking WWIII!”…making WWIII VASTLY more likely.
Fuck it. I don’t care anymore. Let’s do it, and get it over with. It’s inevitable now.
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Posted

I'm willing to bet the core of Europe puts troops in Ukraine.  gonna plant that stake in the ground now. I think shit is going to get real fucking ballsy real soon.

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Posted
I'm willing to bet the core of Europe puts troops in Ukraine.  gonna plant that stake in the ground now. I think shit is going to get real fucking ballsy real soon.

Like I said…the guy yelling about the risk of WWIII is shoving the world toward its inevitability as hard as he can.
It’s coming. We can’t stop it.
The really shitty thing is that the US is going to end up fighting side-by-side with Russia against our former allies.
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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Like I said…the guy yelling about the risk of WWIII is shoving the world toward its inevitability as hard as he can.
It’s coming. We can’t stop it.
The really shitty thing is that the US is going to end up fighting side-by-side with Russia against our former allies.

nah, we won't engage, just like the last time. we won't share weaponry or intelligence either. I don't see Trump sending troops to fight Europe. At his core he's an isolationist that doesn't want to spend the cash. Instead, he keeps the US on the sidelines and he gets to grift and gets paid.

Edited by troph
Posted
4 minutes ago, troph said:

nah, we won't engage, just like the last time. we won't share weaponry or intelligence either. I don't see Trump sending troops to fight Europe. At his core he's an isolationist that doesn't want to spend the cash. Instead, he keeps the US on the sidelines and he gets to grift and gets paid.

I tend to agree with you on this. If a conflict were to occur between Europe and Russia, I tend to think we'd largely remain on the sidelines - at least publicly - for appearances. An open alliance with Russia, involving the US military openly waging war against European ones, would prove intolerable for the American public and the armed forces. Even this regime understands that, so I think there'd be some sympathetic statements toward former allies, but essentially, we'd be publicly neutral.

Besides, not taking a side would really mean we've taken a side. 

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Posted

https://www.threads.net/@kyivpost.official/post/DG1EMp2s1ha?xmt=AQGz0i2iTOx7P00SgZ0GaWyJzMzlARCp7EzXUibljV64pA

Macron doesn’t rule out the deployment of European troops in Ukraine.
He also announced his decision to start a discussion on the use of France’s nuclear weapons to defend the entire EU.

 

https://www.threads.net/@reuters/post/DG1yHWOuzX-?xmt=AQGz0i2iTOx7P00SgZ0GaWyJzMzlARCp7EzXUibljV64pA

France's Macron says he will hold meeting of European army chiefs in Paris next week reut.rs/3F8z7…

 

^I'll take back every French surrender joke I've ever said if France swoops in and saves the World.

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Posted
I tend to agree with you on this. If a conflict were to occur between Europe and Russia, I tend to think we'd largely remain on the sidelines - at least publicly - for appearances. An open alliance with Russia, involving the US military openly waging war against European ones, would prove intolerable for the American public and the armed forces. Even this regime understands that, so I think there'd be some sympathetic statements toward former allies, but essentially, we'd be publicly neutral.
Besides, not taking a side would really mean we've taken a side. 

Counterpoint: Putin tells TFG he can PERSONALLY have half of the wealth of the nations the Russia-US alliance conquers.
Trump will 100% commit the full might of the US military to obtain personal profit.
Stop thinking the unthinkable won’t happen. It’s already happening.
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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.threads.net/@kyivpost.official/post/DG1EMp2s1ha?xmt=AQGz0i2iTOx7P00SgZ0GaWyJzMzlARCp7EzXUibljV64pA

Macron doesn’t rule out the deployment of European troops in Ukraine.
He also announced his decision to start a discussion on the use of France’s nuclear weapons to defend the entire EU.

 

https://www.threads.net/@reuters/post/DG1yHWOuzX-?xmt=AQGz0i2iTOx7P00SgZ0GaWyJzMzlARCp7EzXUibljV64pA

France's Macron says he will hold meeting of European army chiefs in Paris next week reut.rs/3F8z7…

 

^I'll take back every French surrender joke I've ever said if France swoops in and saves the World.

I'll even let the hot bi/bi-curious french women make hot french love to me with their hairy armpits if they save the world.

Edited by troph
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Posted

Not sure how this intel surfaced, but it was quickly walked back

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/48299
Kyiv Dismisses Reports of China Seeking ‘Combat Experience’ in Ukraine

Quote

[UPDATES] As of 13:45, Ukraine’s Center for National Resistance (CNS) approached Kyiv Post and stated that this information is no longer relevant. The corresponding article on the institution’s website has also disappeared.

https://united24media.com/latest-news/reports-suggest-china-may-seek-combat-experience-in-occupied-ukraine-following-north-koreas-lead-6440
 

Quote

China is reportedly negotiating with Russia about potential involvement in combat operations in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, the Ukrainian National Resistance Center reported on March 5.

According to the Center, Beijing is interested in acquiring battlefield experience in Ukraine, following the example set by North Korea.

Sources indicate that Chinese envoys have been repeatedly spotted in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, as China and Russia continue to deepen their military cooperation.

Earlier, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Delivering a message from Russian leader Vladimir Putin, he emphasized Moscow’s commitment to deepening bilateral cooperation.

“Russia highly values the agreements reached with China and is focused on deepening cooperation,” Shoigu stated.

Additionally, he emphasized that the Russia-China relationship serves as a model of interaction between two great powers and is based on shared interests, equality, and deep mutual trust.

 

Posted
56 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I tend to agree with you on this. If a conflict were to occur between Europe and Russia, I tend to think we'd largely remain on the sidelines - at least publicly - for appearances. An open alliance with Russia, involving the US military openly waging war against European ones, would prove intolerable for the American public and the armed forces. Even this regime understands that, so I think there'd be some sympathetic statements toward former allies, but essentially, we'd be publicly neutral.

Europe is our largest and richest trading partner.  It would destroy our economy for many years to come if we were to openly side with the Russian military.  There would also be a fuckload of Americans who would lose their shit over such a scenario.  They may toe the line on us betraying Ukraine, but that's as far as they'll go.

49 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^I'll take back every French surrender joke I've ever said if France swoops in and saves the World.

France stuck with us in Afghanistan for over a decade.  I have no problem with the French.

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

Not sure how this intel surfaced, but it was quickly walked back

Given how much Beijing dances around not providing the kind of hardware that would put them on the sanctions list, as well as being careful with their trade and banking with Russia, I don't really buy it.

Plus, China wants a weakened Russia, both militarily and economically.

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Posted
35 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Europe is our largest and richest trading partner.  It would destroy our economy for many years to come if we were to openly side with the Russian military.  There would also be a fuckload of Americans who would lose their shit over such a scenario.  They may toe the line on us betraying Ukraine, but that's as far as they'll go.

France stuck with us in Afghanistan for over a decade.  I have no problem with the French.

And held the line in East Africa while we went west. Part of operation fuck up ISIS.

And never forget Yorktown. They are the best ally we have had. Yeah, they collapsed as a traditional fighting force in WW2. So did many others. Even then a shit ton never surrendered.

What saved England? Germans suck at water sports. Well, not according to some magazine kiosks around the Frankfurt train station. Or so I hear.

38 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Given how much Beijing dances around not providing the kind of hardware that would put them on the sanctions list, as well as being careful with their trade and banking with Russia, I don't really buy it.

Plus, China wants a weakened Russia, both militarily and economically.

They migth want to send in some "watchers" to see what it is really like. Last war they fought was vs. Vietnam.

 

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Posted
43 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

And held the line in East Africa while we went west. Part of operation fuck up ISIS.

And never forget Yorktown. They are the best ally we have had. Yeah, they collapsed as a traditional fighting force in WW2. So did many others. Even then a shit ton never surrendered.

What saved England? Germans suck at water sports. Well, not according to some magazine kiosks around the Frankfurt train station. Or so I hear.

They migth want to send in some "watchers" to see what it is really like. Last war they fought was vs. Vietnam.

 

image.gif.a2c3e4c330b565fe9318c6601d74e714.gif

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