Русский корабль - иди нахуй

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[Parliament 14112]

35 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Let's not presume that's a 100% lie.  Russia has a history of unfucking its army during war.

[InkaUtexas 25426]

54 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Let's not presume that's a 100% lie.  Russia has a history of unfucking its army during war.

It takes them years. Can they sustain the eco hit? Can they rebuild tanks? Can they up missile production. 

And no, they don't. They overwhelm with masses. Good for WW2, maybe not today. These Vatniks were raised with marlboros and coca-cola. Their grand fathers, the heroes of the Great War, were peasants who ran forward. Dying was better than a gulag. 

 

[Chad Fuck 17503]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Let's not presume that's a 100% lie.  Russia has a history of unfucking its army during war.

 

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

It takes them years. Can they sustain the eco hit? Can they rebuild tanks? Can they up missile production. 

And no, they don't. They overwhelm with masses. Good for WW2, maybe not today. These Vatniks were raised with marlboros and coca-cola. Their grand fathers, the heroes of the Great War, were peasants who ran forward. Dying was better than a gulag. 

 

Both of these things can be true.

Don't count your enemy out until he's truly out.

Russia is not out yet.  

[956 Worldwide 34314]

The Russian military was asked to do something truly dumb and found itself in a situation it hadn’t planned for or practiced for. Russia has its own limited state capacity problems, but even the U.S. military would have struggled if it had been directed to mobilize 300,000 people after four months of fighting in Iraq because we had fucked it up that bad. We should also not be surprised if Russia is able to exercise some limited course corrections especially back at home with mobilization logistics. 
 

We are certainly watching what Russia does carefully and learning from what they do that works and how they try to fix the mistakes. 

[InkaUtexas 25426]

11 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

 

Both of these things can be true.

Don't count your enemy out until he's truly out.

Russia is not out yet.  

They have to watch the south and the east. They cannot move brigades off their borders. That is why they are mobilizing. At some point the Muslim tribes in Dagestan will hit them. 

They can hit, they cannot win. One rule of Risk, NEVER TAKE UKRAINE! 

 

[InkaUtexas 25426]

4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The Russian military was asked to do something truly dumb and found itself in a situation it hadn’t planned for or practiced for. Russia has its own limited state capacity problems, but even the U.S. military would have struggled if it had been directed to mobilize 300,000 people after four months of fighting in Iraq because we had fucked it up that bad. We should also not be surprised if Russia is able to exercise some limited course corrections especially back at home with mobilization logistics. 
 

We are certainly watching what Russia does carefully and learning from what they do that works and how they try to fix the mistakes. 

Difference we plan, we project, we pre-deploy. Once the trains moved west from the Urals most knew this was on. Except the troop on the ground. 

This is not WW2. There is no patriotic war. Yet. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

13 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Difference we plan, we project, we pre-deploy. Once the trains moved west from the Urals most knew this was on. Except the troop on the ground. 

This is not WW2. There is no patriotic war. Yet. 

We also have people/units whose purpose is to poke holes in every scenario we can think of, and run our forces through large-scale exercises meant to make them fail, so that they understand where weaknesses are present.

The Russians don’t have the funding or the independent thinking to do such things, and Russian generals have an aversion to being embarrassed during exercises, and without a strong NCO and junior officer corps that’s allowed to think and act independently, you get situations were platoons or even companies are waiting on orders from way up the chain of command,

[956 Worldwide 34314]

Patriots may be on the way to Ukraine. Fucking huge if true.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/12/13/politics/us-patriot-missile-defense-system-ukraine/index.html 

[Nivek 16808]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

seems like Ukraine should lace vodka with fentanyl and stage a retreat leaving supplies behind.   Counterattack or just let them all become junkies.   

[InkaUtexas 25426]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We also have people/units whose purpose is to poke holes in every scenario we can think of, and run our forces through large-scale exercises meant to make them fail, so that they understand where weaknesses are present.

The Russians don’t have the funding or the independent thinking to do such things, and Russian generals have an aversion to being embarrassed during exercises, and without a strong NCO and junior officer corps that’s allowed to think and act independently, you get situations were platoons or even companies are waiting on orders from way up the chain of command,

Exactly. Even as a dev person on the battlefield I was asked quite a bit about what I saw. US/UK/Norway would always ask how we would operate since we were more local than operating forces. 2 and 3 shops would talk to us all the time. 

 

[Gatorubet 30064]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1593042478235807744.html

 

This is a truly horrifying thread. It shows that Russia is still a barbaric country that is worlds away from being considered modern or civilized.

Any of you who read One Soldier’s War by Arkady Babchenko will recognize the same patterns in prison life as the patterns of the Russian military life.   The abuse of recruits by older “Grandad” soldiers is the norm.   They are often beaten for no reason, and do not get the food reserved for the higher caste soldiers.  Just an uncivilized shit show of barbarity that reveals the Russian military will never be modern cohesive or disciplined.

[Parliament 14112]

3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

 

Any of you who read One Soldier’s War by Arkady Babchenko will recognize the same patterns in prison life as the patterns of the Russian military life.   

Can confirm.  They ate dogs. (First you make a roux?)  Pro tip: Dog fat is very bitter.  Cut it off before you cook it.

[Armybrat 40678]

12 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Can confirm.  They ate dogs. (First you make a roux?)  Pro tip: Dog fat is very bitter.  Cut it off before you cook it.

Knew that from Taiwan, even though their dogs were not particularly fat - Just from personal observation while passing through restaurant streets where skinned dogs were hanging out front of every eating joint. 
Kinda like cabrito in Mexico.

[Ghost of LL 15348]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Let's not presume that's a 100% lie.  Russia has a history of unfucking its army during war.

That's not true.

I assume you're relying on World War II for that assessment.  But that's entirely misleading.  Russia's army got unfucked entirely because of Lend-Lease supplies from the United States.  Without those supplies, the Soviet Union would've been right fucked.  With those supplies, they were able just to throw mass waves of soldiers at the invaders.  But guess what--Russia doesn't have the mass that the Soviet Union did.

Apart from World War II, Russia's track record in unfucking its army during a war is suspect.  In Afghanistan, the Soviet Army didn't do very much to improve; its ability to hold the countryside actually diminished as the war went on.  In World War I, the Russian army got worse and worse until it finally collapsed and mutinied.  Pretty much the same thing in the Russo-Japanese War.

And as pointed out above, there is no capable NCO corps.  There is no professional staff akin to the Pentagon (or even Stavka in World War II).  And there is no culture of self-assessment and improvement.  There's really no basis to believe that the Russian army can unfuck itself in any meaningful way.

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[Scheiss Meister 8398]

15 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

I wouldn't be surprised one bit to find out that we have been quietly training Patriot operators and maintenance personnel for some time.  I sure hope that we have been doing so.

Logistics aside, giving Ukraine Patriots seems like a big jump.  Is it too much to hope that ATACMS are not far behind?

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[KYHorn 16808]

Thorough analysis of German gas storage. 

TLDR: There are very few scenarios where Germany doesn't have enough gas this winter. Temperatures have a large impact on the amount of gas used, but as long as imports are possible (and a new LNG terminal will soon be operational), there should not be an issue.

https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/the-big-freeze-gas-storage-scenario 

Spoiler

The Big Freeze: Gas Storage Scenario Update 12.12.22

Coming off a historically warm November, we have been hit by a frigid start to December. Low temperatures have begun emptying stockpiles faster than anticipated.

Oliver Alexander

7 hr ago

1

1

 

If you enjoy my content, please consider supporting my work here and on Twitter with a premium Substack subscription. I will be launching a Substack chat for premium subscribers this week, where you can ask me questions, chat and I will post regular small updates on events of interest.

 

Firstly, I apologize for my my absence the last two weeks. I have had a very busy schedule that did not allow me time to update my models. Last weekend I was invited to speak at Stratcom Summit 2022 in Istanbul, where I spoke about the rapid growth of the OSINT community, as well as some of the pitfalls and growing pains the community is currently faced with. Luckily, this two week absence has given me more data for the cold start to December, which has allowed me to make an additional parameter for this week.

The first two weeks of December have been colder than average, a rapid change from the the previous two months of temperatures well above the norm. This means that the withdrawals from gas storage facilities is well underway, in order to keep up with the increased demand. Currently, as of Sunday 11th December, German gas storage facilities were filled at 93.5% of their working gas volume. The colder than average weather has meant that savings compared to the norm have diminished, resulting in a quicker drop in gas storage levels than would be optimal. The warm final weeks of November allowed more gas than expected to be saved though, which has helped even out the increased usage so far in December. This can be seen on my 14th November model below, updated to include the historical values up until 11th December.

 

 

As you can see from the above graph, gas storage is currently still in line with the “Optimistic Scenario” despite the cold start to December. I expect it to drop below during the next week, as slightly colder than average temperatures continue to be forecast for Germany and Europe. Luckily the longer term climate models still forecast a warmer January, which will hopefully balance out usage again.

For this week’s update to the model, I have slightly lowered expected gas imports for the rest of the year to adjust for the currently lowered imports.

 

 

As the gas storage fill level still in line with the “Optimistic Scenario” from the 14th November update, forecast gas levels are continuing to look better than they did a month ago. Had Germany continued to use its normal average gas consumption over the winter without any reductions from the 14th November, gas levels would currently have been at 85% instead of 93.5%. This means that the worst case scenario of “no reduction in gas usage” has gone from a bottom of 23.5% in mid April to 29% in mid April. The continued filling of stores due to warmer than average weather during November have allowed for even this scenario to remain within the 2018-2021 minimum fill levels. As with earlier scenario updates, we continue to see a situation where it is hard to imagine a scenario where Germany runs out of gas this winter without a serious reduction in imports, presumably through the sabotage of gas infrastructure. The chance of Germany running out of gas is currently close to 0%.

All other scenarios with some gas usage reductions mange to keep Germany at a satisfactory level throughout the winter.

The “Optimistic scenario” has attempted adjust for the temperature related gas savings. With this adjustment, German households and businesses have saved around 22% gas compared to the 4 year average. At the same time German industry, which is less affected by weather and has a more stable gas consumption, has saved around 18%. For the optimistic scenario I have accounted for this, with a decrease in savings to 10% for households and 5% for industry from the beginning of April as the winter and immediate danger passes.

Barring any major crisis (import issues, sabotage, unusually cold weather) I continue to estimate that we will see a scenario between the blue and green dashed lines on the scenario graph. The Wilhelmshaven LNG terminal still looks to be on track to become operational around the end of this month, allowing for German LNG supplies to be further strengthened. I will attempt to factor this in properly once we have a solid timeline on when the facility becomes operational. The current cold weather will probably result in a scenario closer to the green dashed line than the optimistic scenario, which still Germany in a decent situation preparing for the 2023 winter.

 

As we have seen, temperature fluctuations can have a massive impact on the gas usage and level of gas withdrawal from storage. To illustrate this I created a graph below that shows the difference in the “Optimistic Scenario” based on colder than average temperatures. With the slightly below average forecast for next week, I would expect that we will see a drop closer to the red line than the blue line in the near future. The hope is that this will be averaged out in January by a warmer than average month.

 

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by KYHorn

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[KYHorn 16808]

26 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I wouldn't be surprised one bit to find out that we have been quietly training Patriot operators and maintenance personnel for some time.  I sure hope that we have been doing so.

Logistics aside, giving Ukraine Patriots seems like a big jump.  Is it too much to hope that ATACMS are not far behind?

Probably wishful thinking, but maybe the "slight increase" in US troops in Ukraine are to train them on-site with Patriots. 

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[Gatorubet 30064]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

That's not true.

And as pointed out above, there is no capable NCO corps.  There is no professional staff akin to the Pentagon (or even Stavka in World War II).  And there is no culture of self-assessment and improvement.  There's really no basis to believe that the Russian army can unfuck itself in any meaningful way.

GLL, I can only assume that you have not read the thread where Wagner will soon be recruiting low-cast prison culture sexual slaves (who can’t be spoken to, or touched or share meals or quarters with other soldiers) to enter the Russian Federation war effort.

I mean, this action - a sure sign of thoughtful self-assessment - will clearly un-fuck the Russian military and lead to victory. 

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[Pescado_Rojo 19327]

55 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Seems like a good target for a few of these

Quote

M39A1 (ATACMS BLOCK IA) missile with GPS-aided guidance. It carries 300 M74 Anti-personnel and Anti‑materiel (APAM) bomblets. Range: 20–300 kilometres (12–186 mi)

 

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[956 Worldwide 34314]

2 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I wouldn't be surprised one bit to find out that we have been quietly training Patriot operators and maintenance personnel for some time.  I sure hope that we have been doing so.

Logistics aside, giving Ukraine Patriots seems like a big jump.  Is it too much to hope that ATACMS are not far behind?

Well, but Patriots are just a better and more capable system of what we already provide (air defense) and don’t fundamentally change the “rules” of engagement with Allied equipment. And most of the hesitation has been a U.S. hesitancy to let Russia “learn” how to counter Patriots on the battlefield as it is about escalation. That’s a top-tier system, even if older, that we’d use in a RU-NATO hot war. 

The issue with ATACMS is more political. Are we ready to see U.S. hardware used in a strike against a target inside the Russian Federation’s recognized border. 

[Parliament 14112]

12 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Are we ready to see U.S. hardware used in a strike against a target inside the Russian Federation’s recognized border. 

yes

Edited December 13, 2022 by Parliament

[956 Worldwide 34314]

As we’re discussing Patriots, it’s worth remembering that both the Obama and Trump admins AGONIZED over giving Ukraine a fee dozen Javelins. This was a bid to mollify the Russians and as we see, it didn’t work. 
 

It’s an open question if a more comprehensive and aggressive strategy of arming Ukraine would have deterred the war or resulted in a decisive victory in the early stages. We saw what just those Javelins did. This debate is at least as relevant as the “NATO baited Russia into this,” but you won’t get as serious a debate over whether a more aggressive posture could have led to peace. Time to reframe. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

In my view, the Javelins were about winning battles, the Patriots are more about winning the war - they can help keep Russia’s larger missiles/rockets and aircraft from hitting Ukrainian infrastructure.  Same with regular HIMARS helping win battles, ATACMS helping win the war.

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[MagicSoccerSpray 1725]

46 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The issue with ATACMS is more political. Are we ready to see U.S. hardware used in a strike against a target inside the Russian Federation’s recognized border. 

 

Where does this certainty of Ukraine using them inside Russia coming from? They yet to use any of the weapons we've already given them inside Russia, why would they start now? They very deliberately only used domestic weapons when they've actually tried to attack inside Russia. It's way past time to stop this self defeating hand-wringing and try to win this damned war. Send ATACMs now damnit.

[Rimbo 25752]

4 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

In Afghanistan, the Soviet Army didn't do very much to improve; its ability to hold the countryside actually diminished as the war went on.

Charlie Wilson had something to do with that.

[Dahobbs 17420]

21 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

Where does this certainty of Ukraine using them inside Russia coming from? They yet to use any of the weapons we've already given them inside Russia, why would they start now? They very deliberately only used domestic weapons when they've actually tried to attack inside Russia. It's way past time to stop this self defeating hand-wringing and try to win this damned war. Send ATACMs now damnit.

I don't think there is any certainty on it. But there is a risk. I saw a report the other day that the HIMARs systems in Ukraine have been modified so that they can't use ATACMS, making it a bit more complex.  

[MagicSoccerSpray 1725]

39 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think there is any certainty on it. But there is a risk.

 

I understand that but If they were going to strategically attack Russia proper with American systems, they would have done it by now imo. The closest I've seen is the Ukrainians blew up a Russian border tower a 100 yards across the border with a switchblade, which I think they probably cleared with us.

 

39 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I saw a report the other day that the HIMARs systems in Ukraine have been modified so that they can't use ATACMS, making it a bit more complex.  

 

Saw that too. I assume Ukrainians could repair/retrofit a software and hardware re-installation pretty easily. Regardless we're sending more GLMRS anyway, so that shouldn't inhibit ATACMs deployment. It's a purely political decision and it's wrong imo. Supposedly there was an agreement with the Chinese not distribute ATACMs, but I struggle to see why they get a say when the Russians are using them to bypass sanctions while Iran supplies drones and ballistic missiles. Our greatest deterrent always seems to be ourselves.

Edited December 14, 2022 by MagicSoccerSpray

[Chad Fuck 17503]

2 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

I understand that but If they were going to strategically attack Russia proper with American systems, they would have done it by now imo. The closest I've seen is the Ukrainians blew up a Russian border tower a 100 yards across the border with a switchblade, which I think they probably cleared with us.

 

 

Saw that too. I assume Ukrainians could repair/retrofit a software and hardware re-installation pretty easily. Regardless we're sending more GLMRS anyway, so that shouldn't inhibit ATACMs deployment. It's a purely political decision and it's wrong imo.

They haven't attacked Russia with our weapons systems because we told them not to if they wanted to keep the weapons pipeline open.

If Ukraine wants to build their own stuff and explode it in Russia, that's fantastic.  But as mentioned upthread, when ATACMs bits with English start winding up littering Russian cities, the game will have changed significantly.  So we need to be mindful of whether we want that to happen.  Maybe we do.  Maybe we don't.