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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Gravy Train

Gravy Train 974

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I want that sweater.  Pretty badass that it features the Tryzub at the V-notch.

Edit:  Similar hoodie
https://www.etsy.com/listing/1295770194/zelensky-green-hoodie-yellow-ukrainian?click_key=0c975f1b8293c0d231c5e55dc8a04e2334110afe%3A1295770194&click_sum=69d7c075&ref=shop_home_active_21&pro=1&frs=1

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Fico

Fico 1743

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3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Check out saint javelin. Profits go straight to some of the internationals fighting over there. 

Been rocking one and a few of his t shirts since it started. Pisses off the few Russians here in town. Fuck em. 

Rocking this one tonight. 

https://www.saintjavelin.com/products/nafo-fella-inc-hoodie

 

Seconded, additionally they set up manufacturing in Ukraine for a handful of their items. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89395

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Russia was asked about more potential aid coming out of today's visit:

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(If) "The supply of arms [by Washington] continues, the range of supplied weapons is expanding. All this, of course, leads to an aggravation of the conflict and, in fact, this does not bode well for Ukraine," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

It's going to aggravate the conflict?  How?  Is Russia going to rape more women, murder more men, women, and children, destroy more apartment buildings and classrooms?  How is it not already aggravated/escalated?

Michael McFaul is a great follow:

 

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Gravy Train

Gravy Train 974

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ISW:  Target Russia's Capability, not its Intent

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/target-russia’s-capability-not-its-intent

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"US policy should recognize that the Kremlin’s intent regarding Ukraine is maximalist, inflexible, and will not change in the foreseeable future. The West should stop expending resources trying to change a reality it does not control and focus on what it can shape plenty: denying Russia’s ability to wage a war against Ukraine"

"Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intent toward Ukraine has not changed and likely never will. Putin’s intent will most likely outlast him—by design. Russia will use any territory it keeps in Ukraine to stage future attacks." ... "The Kremlin's intent to control Ukraine will likely outlast Putin, by design. Putin is indoctrinating his goals into Russian formal structures, legislation, information space, and society." ...

"Russian elites largely subscribe to this intent, differing only in their approach. Some seek complete victory in Ukraine at any cost.[9] Others seek victory but not at the expense of the remainders of Russia’s power, which they seek to preserve for selfish and ideological reasons."

"The United States must help Ukraine liberate its territories and people through a large-scale counteroffensive or risk facing the same challenge with the same escalation risks under worse conditions in the future."

So where does this leave us?  Break the Russian will and kill as many who feel the need to cross into Ukraine with threats to their soveirgnty.. until an entire generation or two die off?

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Gravy Train

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If that's the case, this conflict won't end until Russia's dissolution (as we currently know it) or their brainwashed and corrupt Boomers and Gen-X generations die off, well into the 2030s, where their new leadership finally recognizes their own truths and their propaganda machine slows. 

I'm troubled with the theory in that ISW article, that Putin's ideologies are cemented into Russian culture which will outlive his reign.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89395

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7 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

So where does this leave us?  Break the Russian will and kill as many who feel the need to cross into Ukraine with threats to their soveirgnty.. until an entire generation or two die off?

First, make it clear to the civilians in the US and Western Europe just how important this is. General Ben Hodges and a few others (Phillips P. OBrien, Michael McFaul, etc.) and even Peter Zeihan talk a lot about how important the stability of Europe is to American financial interests, in terms of the amount of trade we do with them, the impact on our markets, etc. but many Americans and Europeans don't realize The Bigger Picture and don't realize what a Russian victory would actually mean. Also point out all of the times that Russia threatened the US/NATO/EU over some weapons system we were providing and then tucked their tail between their legs and backed down.   These things are a tall order thanks to Russian propaganda on social media.

Make it hard for Russians to cross into Ukraine.  Give Ukraine the weapons to degrade their ability to move troops and supplies around within the captured territories, but also within the neighboring regions of Russia (so that they have to make wide detours around certain areas of the Ukrainian border).  Make it hard to resupply existing troops that are deployed in the captured territories. The Ukrainians have done a magnificent job of degrading Russian logistics, and all of the respected military leaders in WWII would be very proud of how well they've done.  We need to help them keep that up.

 Help with a multi-layered air defense system that puts 30mm and 40mm fire on drones and shorter-range missiles, and puts Patriots onto the big-ass missiles and get that system in place in Western Ukraine so that a defensive "bubble" of sorts can be created in Western Ukraine and pushed out over Kyiv (and further east), so that the Ukrainians can do what they need to do (rest and recuperate, repair systems, etc.) in Western Ukraine without having to worry about the stuff being destroyed or a loss of power.

Help with infrastructure work/repair, and help with a more robust/decentralized power grid.  Ironically, Turkey is helping in a big way, and a few other countries are beginning to step up.

Help Ukraine develop a more comprehensive naval strategy that can push the Russian ships further out (and or just flat out keep them in port) that can help the Ukrainians move stuff along the western side of the Black Sea. Even if it's seaborne drones (submersed or not), something to really help push the Russians back.

Help figure out Moldova. My guess is that this will have to come from Ukrainians doing something.  At the very least, help train/equip Moldavians so that they can isolate and even defeat those existing troops.  This is not quite the elephant in the room, but it's going to be a problem going forward.

Start having conversations about what we should provide when Ukraine has burned through more tanks, artillery, and helicopters.  There will be a point where we want to move them over to heavier NATO (or South Korean which might as well be NATO jr) weapons systems.  We don't want to feel like we have to rush Abrams or Leopards or whatever tanks into the mix because we weren't paying attention to Ukraine's tank inventory.  And we should poke around more countries and find out where we can provide more Russian/Soviet tanks and supplies/parts to Ukraine, and maybe help move those countries to Western systems (a win-win for everybody).

With that said, we appear to doing parts of the above, even if it's piecemeal.  We are clearly thinking longterm when you consider the orders we are placing for systems that won't be delivered until late 2023 or even later. I fully expect Ukraine to be on mostly Western systems (tanks, artillery, and eventually aircraft) within 5 years. That's really good for us, both for our defense industry, but it also means we can work on building up more reserves (parts, ammo, etc.) that is inline with western militaries, so that we don't have to scramble and beg, borrow, and trade with other countries for Soviet-era stuff.

I think we also need to have a sit-down talk of sorts with Turkey. They clearly want to see Russia diminished and are putting a lot into helping Ukraine (bonus for them: they are building up their defense industry and are in a position to take contracts from Russia and Iran), but they still play a little too loose at times. We also need to figure out the situation with Iran.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89395

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3 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

I'm troubled with the theory in that ISW article, that Putin's ideologies are cemented into Russian culture which will outlive his reign.

I wouldn't be. They may appear to be cemented into Russian culture because that's what Putin wanted, but if you pay attention to their nightly talk shows (through Julia Davis and Dmitri/War Translated and  Francis Scarr), they are all over the place, like a chicken with their heads cut off.  One moment they are bemoaning the fact that they appear to be locked into this eternal struggle, and that their only way out is for lots of Russians to die, the next they are whining that most Russians don't care, and that the ones who did care fled the country (which presents a challenge for Russia going forward)..  

The next leader will shape the culture just as Putin did. Maybe not through essays, speeches, and executive orders, but Russian culture will change, something they are prone to doing over the centuries.

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3 hours ago, Gravy Train said:

If that's the case, this conflict won't end until Russia's dissolution (as we currently know it) or their brainwashed and corrupt Boomers and Gen-X generations die off, well into the 2030s, where their new leadership finally recognizes their own truths and their propaganda machine slows. 

I'm troubled with the theory in that ISW article, that Putin's ideologies are cemented into Russian culture which will outlive his reign.

Putin has spent decades shaping Russian institutions— government and otherwise— and that doesn’t go away overnight.  The deeper problem is that Russian state power has for centuries viewed Russia as an imperial power and Russia itself as too big, too diverse, too unruly to govern by any method other than authoritarian rule. And historically, periods of Russian state weakness have been accompanied by massive social upheaval, war, and famine. 
 

As long as Russia’s governing elites maintain this conception, the “Russia problem” will not go away for Russia’s neighbors. If the U.S. has stumbled “making the world safe for democracy,” then for centuries Russia has been trying to make the world safe for autocracy. Any flicker of human protest against autocratic governance in what Russia views as its sphere of influence is treated as a threat to Russia itself.  This is why pointing the finger at NATO or the U.S. rings so hollow. For Russia, invading a nearby state that is experimenting with democratic or liberal ideas is the natural state of affairs. Nothing could be more intuitive for generations of Russians.

They did it in Georgia and Ukraine. They did it to Czechoslovakia and Hungary. They did it to Poland several times in the 18th and 19th centuries. They did it to Hungary and Romania in 1848 (this was the most explicit formulation of Russian autocratic promotion). 
 

Until Russia reforms its image of itself as a polity based on consent and not force, the neighborhood will be dangerous for any country that attempts a different model. Russia is perfectly capable of quarreling with other autocracies of interests collide,  but the simple existence of successful non-autocratic nations is viewed as a threat to Russian interests. 

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morehornsepower

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I go back to early thoughts (from some), that we needed to treat Putin as a "rational actor", and try to find ways for a peace he would accept.  In those early days, many thought Russia's military power was going to overwhelm Ukraine, and we had to somehow do all we could to prevent a human tragedy.  We've already failed in that goal.

Once it was apparent that the Russian military was not going to just roll over Ukraine, focus shifted to making this crime too expensive to continue - to make the cost/risk not worth the ill-gotten gains for Russia.  That hasn't worked either - and continues to cost the lives of Ukraine.

It is time for another focus shift.  As others have discussed above, Russia's/Putin's end goal has not changed.  And the cost does not seem to matter.  Whether it is perception, power, people, or natural resources, we are not going to be able to "convince" Russia to change their objective.  So now we have to remove their ability to pursue that objective.  Accelerate the ongoing destruction of the Russian conventional military force.  Remove their capability to invade any more of their neighbors.  Send ATACMS.   Send more Patriot batteries and more anti-drone systems.  Help send more Russian warships to the bottom of the sea.

Anything less means (even more) prolonged misery for Ukraine, and a repeat for some other country in a decade or so.  I've moved on from "let us be careful not to start WWIII" to "let us make sure Russia can't keep raping it's neighbors".

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Brisketexan

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6 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Putin has spent decades shaping Russian institutions— government and otherwise— and that doesn’t go away overnight.  The deeper problem is that Russian state power has for centuries viewed Russia as an imperial power and Russia itself as too big, too diverse, too unruly to govern by any method other than authoritarian rule. And historically, periods of Russian state weakness have been accompanied by massive social upheaval, war, and famine. 
 

As long as Russia’s governing elites maintain this conception, the “Russia problem” will not go away for Russia’s neighbors. If the U.S. has stumbled “making the world safe for democracy,” then for centuries Russia has been trying to make the world safe for autocracy. Any flicker of human protest against autocratic governance in what Russia views as its sphere of influence is treated as a threat to Russia itself.  This is why pointing the finger at NATO or the U.S. rings so hollow. For Russia, invading a nearby state that is experimenting with democratic or liberal ideas is the natural state of affairs. Nothing could be more intuitive for generations of Russians.

They did it in Georgia and Ukraine. They did it to Czechoslovakia and Hungary. They did it to Poland several times in the 18th and 19th centuries. They did it to Hungary and Romania in 1848 (this was the most explicit formulation of Russian autocratic promotion). 
 

Until Russia reforms its image of itself as a polity based on consent and not force, the neighborhood will be dangerous for any country that attempts a different model. Russia is perfectly capable of quarreling with other autocracies of interests collide,  but the simple existence of successful non-autocratic nations is viewed as a threat to Russian interests. 

Fantastic post.  For some of our fellow Americans who still willingly seem to not get it, the problem with Russia was never "communism," per se.  In fact, we bit way too hard on that in the red scare days.

The problem with Russia is.....Russia gonna Russia.  It has a large enough geographic presence that it can and will be the turd in both the Asian and European punch bowl, going out and doing Russia stuff.  

Russia's strategy is never to make Russia great.  It is to create parity by weakening everyone else down to Russia's level, and colonizing adjacent territories to create buffers.  That approach is literally centuries-old, and has been deployed while Russia has been 1) a monarchy, 2) "communist," and 3) a fascist kleptocracy.  Through it all, Russia has Russia'd.

I have little hope of Russia ever changing its ways.  So, instead...

18 minutes ago, morehornsepower said:

So now we have to remove their ability to pursue that objective.  Accelerate the ongoing destruction of the Russian conventional military force.  Remove their capability to invade any more of their neighbors.  Send ATACMS.   Send more Patriot batteries and more anti-drone systems.  Help send more Russian warships to the bottom of the sea.

Anything less means (even more) prolonged misery for Ukraine, and a repeat for some other country in a decade or so.  I've moved on from "let us be careful not to start WWIII" to "let us make sure Russian can't keep raping it's neighbors".

...this.

We can't make Russia a non-nuclear power.  It will continue to saber-rattle with nukes, no matter what anyone does.  But we CAN destroy its ability to be much of a turd in the punch bowl.  We need to take this opportunity to, as completely as possible, destroy their conventional military.  THEN, to fortify the shit out of fortress Europe (yeah, we naively thought that era was over....think again.  If you don't get EVERY cancer cell, the cancer WILL grow back.)  Keep Russia in its cage.

Oh, and that also means electronically.  Their cyberwarfare and interference in Western affairs needs to be treated like the hostile military action that it is.

If the Russia people ever decide to have a functional state that can participate in world affairs and not smear shit on the walls, cool.  Don't hold your breath waiting.

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