Русский корабль - иди нахуй

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[Gatorubet 30088]

2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I have to think that the shitty way they treat Mobiks means that you have a lot of officers and more elite troops in that place. I’m hoping anyway.

After looking around the interwebs, there is some talk of the 600 new Mobiks being from the same area of Russia, and just recently settled at the school. There is also some chatter that three HIMARS missiles arrived at the same coordinates within three seconds - at midnight local time - while the soldiers inside we’re watching the New Year’s Eve greetings from Putin and about to toast the New Year. 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

^clunky wording, but in Russia you can't leave the country if you owe money. The current number is 8 million people on the "no fly list" as it were, which is the highest it's been in 15 years.

Edited January 1, 2023 by MillerEP

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[MillerEP 30339]

^I've read this from others, but I don't really know. I do believe that 40 a month is their production ceiling currently, but I'm skeptical about the reserves numbers. I really hope it is true though, and Ukraine rode out the roughest part already.

Edited January 1, 2023 by MillerEP

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Gatorubet 30088]

Bottom right video is awesome.  New Years celebration in progress, camera follows cute glammed up chick onto balcony (as it is midnight and the new year) - when there is a sudden finding out by those who fucked around. 

[atomheartbevo 89416]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

^I've read this from others, but I don't really know. I do believe that 40 a month is their production ceiling currently, but I'm skeptical about the reserves numbers. I really hope it is true though, and Ukraine rode out the roughest part already.

We can guess that they've gutted the S-300s they use in their air defense system, hence the Ukrainian strikes against their air bases deep in Russia, because they can (and do) use those S-300s against land targets in Ukraine (still seems like a waste of air defense missiles to me), so I'd be slightly skeptical of the reserves as well.

I do think Ukraine has rode out the roughest part already, but it's still going to be rough - I think the targeting of their power infrastructure is a result of Russia not having enough missiles to go after Ukrainian military targets and so they are picky and Putin is trying to create the most pressure on the Ukrainians that he can.  If they had a lot more missiles, it feels like we'd see them constantly hitting military areas in Western Ukraine.

[Gatorubet 30088]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

^clunky wording, but in Russia you can't leave the country if you owe money.

Well, if that was the law here, Carnaval Cruise Line would be out of business.

[Gatorubet 30088]

39 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Bottom right video is awesome.  New Years celebration in progress, camera follows cute glammed up chick onto balcony (as it is midnight and the new year) - when there is a sudden finding out by those who fucked around. 

The exact moment when the world’s biggest Roman Candle lit up the sky like it was noon.  

[956 Worldwide 34429]

 

[Schulz2.0 28768]

 

[MagicSoccerSpray 1725]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/12/30/offensive-putins-final-gamble-fails-doomed/

 

Edited January 2, 2023 by MagicSoccerSpray

[atomheartbevo 89416]

Speaking of Gepards…

Some reported power outages..

Ukrainians slowly hitting back on that front

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

Can’t believe we aren’t able to rally enough pressure on Iran to keep them from sending drones.  We’ve got Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Pakistan and India right there. 

[bernorange 8348]

10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Can’t believe we aren’t able to rally enough pressure on Iran to keep them from sending drones.  We’ve got Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Pakistan and India right there. 

Because they have always been so receptive/compliant to/with American policy before?

[Captainant 27447]

26 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Can’t believe we aren’t able to rally enough pressure on Iran to keep them from sending drones.  We’ve got Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Pakistan and India right there. 

It's not like we welched on a technology control deal with them a few years ago or anything... 

[Dahobbs 17444]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Can’t believe we aren’t able to rally enough pressure on Iran to keep them from sending drones.  We’ve got Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Pakistan and India right there. 

When has Iran ever listened to us before? When have Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, or India ever been reliable partners? I'm confused by your confusion. 

[RPM 26222]

nm

Edited January 2, 2023 by RPM
old

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[KYHorn 16862]

 

 

Edited January 2, 2023 by KYHorn

[Parliament 14133]

11 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 

If the CIA were to whack a few guys in his supply chain, I'd be good with that.

[Superhero 8773]

20 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Yeah. Russian propagandists were giddy this summer looking forward to a hard winter hurting anyone in Europe supporting Ukraine.  They could not conceive of their former clients not buying Russian gas and oil.

Someone posted how Germany is almost completely weaned from Russian oil after ending Russian coal and gas imports.  I remember reading the concerns about Germany being able to replace gas reserves and make it through the winter.

Fuck you, Russia!

 

Here is something I’ll NEVER EVER say again… so here goes…

Yay global warming.

[KYHorn 16862]

 

 

[KYHorn 16862]

 

 

[Gatorubet 30088]

1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

 

https://en.topwar.ru/207963-vsu-nanesli-udar-iz-rszo-himars-po-mestu-raspolozhenija-mobilizovannyh-v-makeevke-reakcija-voenkorov.html

The above is a link to a forum for Russians and Russian ex military to discuss all things Ukraine. I admit that a lot of stuff they’re talking about goes over my head and many of their references are not understood by me.   But the tone poem of the whole thread is that the military and its planners are hopelessly incompetent and incapable of changing.

Mostly, a lot of the posters want to see large amounts of executions of Russian higher-ups. And of course, some call for wiping out all of Ukraine, and for the Russian military to quit being nice to civilians. 

[atomheartbevo 89416]

Just now, Gatorubet said:

and for the Russian military to quit being nice to civilians. 

Wow, if they consider everything they've done to civilians as "being nice", I can't imagine what not being nice to them looks like.  Oh wait, I can.

[atomheartbevo 89416]

In regard to the comments about their bombers not being able to stray far from bases, I'm not surprised.  Their supply chain for maintaining the more complex aircraft has to be impacted pretty heavily by the sanctions, and they've always had issues with maintaining their aircraft - they were not allowed to run certain models up to full speed because they'd have to practically rebuild the engine because of poor design and construction.  I'd imagine their older bombers have the problem compounded since those manufacturing lines have probably long since closed down.

And I'd bet the older bomber squadrons/wings are probably rife with corruption, because up until Ukraine, it wasn't like they needed to constantly sortie large numbers of them, and could just leave them parked on runways as a deterrent.

Edited January 2, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[956 Worldwide 34429]

It’s pretty much time for us to start taking a much more evenhanded approach to Israel.  They’re such a disappointment on this issue and getting worse. 
 

 

[956 Worldwide 34429]

Ha! This thread is well worth a read in its entirety.

 

[Brisketexan 104596]

It’s pretty much time for us to start taking a much more evenhanded approach to Israel.  They’re such a disappointment on this issue and getting worse. 
 
 

Israel: proudly turning “never again” into a fucking lie yet again.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

17 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Ha! This thread is well worth a read in its entirety.

 

that's great.  

[956 Worldwide 34429]

19 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

In regard to the comments about their bombers not being able to stray far from bases, I'm not surprised.  Their supply chain for maintaining the more complex aircraft has to be impacted pretty heavily by the sanctions, and they've always had issues with maintaining their aircraft - they were not allowed to run certain models up to full speed because they'd have to practically rebuild the engine because of poor design and construction.  I'd imagine their older bombers have the problem compounded since those manufacturing lines have probably long since closed down.

And I'd bet the older bomber squadrons/wings are probably rife with corruption, because up until Ukraine, it wasn't like they needed to constantly sortie large numbers of them, and could just leave them parked on runways as a deterrent.

You’re thinking of the MiG-25, which is an objectively awesome fucking gnarly machine. It had an imposed speed limit of around Mach 2.8 but was once tracked at over Mach 3.2 by Israel. It would begin to eat its engine at Mach 2.9. It’s a testimony to Soviet engineering and design, which thought up the engine and also to Soviet material science, which couldn’t actually build it. 
 

But the Foxbat was an interceptor and not a fighter jet, survivability was not required for a one time intercept of a U.S. Valkyrie bomber. But fun fact— Americans saw this secret super plane and assumed it HAD to be a kickass fighter. We designed the legendary F-15 Eagle to actually do all the things we believed the MiG-25 could do. 

[utee94 15745]

32 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Ha! This thread is well worth a read in its entirety.

 

It's funny and biting to be sure, but I interact with a lot of "rank and file" Eastern Europeans through work, and I wouldn't categorize their understanding of the US or USA politics as "nuanced" or even "particularly good."  They tend to believe in all the superficial stereotypes and mimic all of the expected tropes with respect to the US.

Edited January 2, 2023 by utee94

[956 Worldwide 34429]

2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

It's funny and biting to be sure, but I interact with a lot of "rank and file" Eastern Europeans through work, and I wouldn't categorize their understanding of the US or USA politics as "nuanced" or even "particularly good."  They tend to believe in all the stereotypes and mimic all of the expected tropes with respect to the US.

I agree with you, and I’ve lived in the region for about 10 years all said. What the difference is— what the U.S. and our politicians do under the influence of Western media has a real impact on the life of Eastern Europeans while the opposite is not really true. 

Edited January 2, 2023 by 956 Worldwide

[utee94 15745]

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I agree with you, and I’ve lived in the region for about 10 years all said. What the difference is— what the U.S. and our politicians do under the influence of Western media has a real impact on the life of Eastern Europeans while the opposite is not really true. 

That's certainly fair and I agree.

[Parliament 14133]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It’s pretty much time for us to start taking a much more evenhanded approach to Israel.  They’re such a disappointment on this issue and getting worse. 
 

 

Why do they have such a hard on for Russia?

[KYHorn 16862]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It’s pretty much time for us to start taking a much more evenhanded approach to Israel.  They’re such a disappointment on this issue and getting worse. 
 

 

The shift is definitely concerning and worth watching closely, though I can't imagine it ends up being much more significant than not publicly condemning Russia, as getting closer to Russia and, by extension, Iran, seems unlikely and counter to their interests. I do wish I had a better understanding of the Israeli pressure points that have led them to equivocate more than I'd expect. 

[Bevo 13526]

9 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Why do they have such a hard on for Russia?

For starters, there are 180,000 Jews living in Russia. Currently, Russia allows these Jews to leave for Israel. This would abruptly change if Putin deemed it so.

[InkaUtexas 25508]

7 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Why do they have such a hard on for Russia?

There is a lot of investment, Russian, in Israel, but this make no sense. Syria, Iran, etc. 

But then again, autocrats love autocrats. Wonder what Israel's goals are. 

[bolverk 29399]

8 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Why do they have such a hard on for Russia?

Two guesses from my fairly uninformed standpoint.

1. A shit ton of Russian Jews were allowed to emigrate to Israel starting in the 1980s (I think), which likely has some positive effect or at least bred some familiarity between Israeli and Russian societies.
2. Russian leaders probably don't give the Israelis a lot of guff over their occupation of the West Bank and suppression of Palestinians.

 

[Dahobbs 17444]

41 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

You’re thinking of the MiG-25, which is an objectively awesome fucking gnarly machine. It had an imposed speed limit of around Mach 2.8 but was once tracked at over Mach 3.2 by Israel. It would begin to eat its engine at Mach 2.9. It’s a testimony to Soviet engineering and design, which thought up the engine and also to Soviet material science, which couldn’t actually build it. 
 

But the Foxbat was an interceptor and not a fighter jet, survivability was not required for a one time intercept of a U.S. Valkyrie bomber. But fun fact— Americans saw this secret super plane and assumed it HAD to be a kickass fighter. We designed the legendary F-15 Eagle to actually do all the things we believed the MiG-25 could do. 

Yup. We thought they had built a lightweight, titanium monstrosity with incredible maneuverability and speed. It turned out that all the design cues we thought indicated super advanced materials and performance were actually done just to keep the thing airborne with the simple, heavy materials used. 

[atomheartbevo 89416]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

You’re thinking of the MiG-25, which is an objectively awesome fucking gnarly machine. It had an imposed speed limit of around Mach 2.8 but was once tracked at over Mach 3.2 by Israel. It would begin to eat its engine at Mach 2.9. It’s a testimony to Soviet engineering and design, which thought up the engine and also to Soviet material science, which couldn’t actually build it. 

But the Foxbat was an interceptor and not a fighter jet, survivability was not required for a one time intercept of a U.S. Valkyrie bomber. But fun fact— Americans saw this secret super plane and assumed it HAD to be a kickass fighter. We designed the legendary F-15 Eagle to actually do all the things we believed the MiG-25 could do. 

Actually, the MiG-25 came to mind as I was writing that, but I was thinking about an article I read years ago that discussed the various interceptions that were a mainstay of the Cold War (and still continue to this day) and why the Soviet and later Russian aircraft flew the way they did, both the fighters and the bombers, and the issues they face.  Basically aging mainframes - the TU-95 is old (designed a few years after Tupolev ripped off the B-29), along with engine that are still based on the original late 1940s/early 1950s design, iffy supply chains (corruption, aging parts), Soviet/Russian maintenance, combined with Russian weather, leads to the issue that their bomber force is probably far less than what it looks like.

I've seen other analysts saying that the Russians have about 40% actual availability of their bombers, with the rest being down for maintenance and/or functioning as parts/hangar queens, and basically that article about them taking off, circling the airfields, launching their missiles, and landing again jive with that.

The fact that we are 10 months on and the Russians do relatively very little from the air (outside of cruise missiles) is probably more about Ukrainian anti-air and fighters, but it's pretty clear that the Russians are babying their bombers and fighter/bombers/CAS, especially if they moved those TU-95s thousands of miles away.  I keep thinking the Russians will discover they have a bunch of SU-25s sitting somewhere.

Edit: The analysts I've read think the Russians have at maximum, 40% of their heavy bombers that will ever fly.  Basically, they'll never get that other 60% working, but they keep them around as a deterrent for the satellite photos/inspections.

Edited January 2, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[Bevo 13526]

There is a better article in the Economist but

 

How Israel Is Trying to Solve Its Ukraine Conundrum

Analysis by Zev Chafets | Bloomberg

April 24, 2022 at 2:12 a.m. EDT

 

When Russia invaded Ukraine, the free world began a diplomatic dance, led by the U.S., that continues today. In that dance, Israel got off on the wrong foot by initially declining to co-sponsor a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning Russian aggression.

 

Israel eventually did an about-face and supported the resolution. It was one of many signals suggesting that the government wants to edge back into the Western mainstream. It will need to proceed cautiously.

 

Russia’s assault on Ukraine has created a conundrum for Israel, which believes it must preserve its relationship with Moscow as a matter of national security. Russia controls the skies over neighboring Syria. It allows the Israeli air force to interdict Iranian efforts to supply Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, with precision armaments. While the U.S. would have been displeased had Israel refused to sign on as a co-sponsor, the Biden administration appreciates the position Israel is in.

 

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been less understanding, asking again and again for Israel to supply him with advanced weapons. The Ukrainian ambassador to Israel explained: “My president is Jewish; he expects more from Israel.”

The Israeli government chalked this up to the naivete of a young, inexperienced president. But it underestimated Zelenskiy’s savvy. He knew that Western powers were willing to give him votes of support and words of comfort, but not the military hardware he needed.   

Zelenskiy set out to dramatize and weaponize Western sympathy by casting the war as a second Holocaust. In a video address to Israeli parliamentarians in mid-March, he made his case. “The threat is the same for both us and you — the total destruction of the people, state, culture,” he said. “That is why I have the right to this parallel and to this comparison. Our history and your history. Our war for our survival and your experience in World War II.”

 

 

Zelenskiy closed his speech with a dramatic challenge to the Jewish state to aid Ukraine. “It is up to you, dear brothers and sisters, to choose the answer.  You will have to live with this answer. Ukraine made its choice 80 years ago. It rescued Jews.”  

This is untrue. In World War II, more than a million Jews were murdered in Ukraine with the agreement of the Nazi puppet government and the help of public officials and a considerable number of everyday Ukrainians. Zelenskiy must have known his audience was aware of this — every Israeli is. But he correctly calculated that the government wouldn’t issue more than a mild demurral.  

In any case, Zelenskiy’s analogy was aimed at a larger audience and a wider purpose. He wanted to make support for Ukraine into a morally compelling cause. Collaboration with the Nazis is a deep and painful wound to European self-esteem, one that reparations and Holocaust memorials haven’t healed. In the U.S., too, there is shame and regret over the refusal of President Franklin Roosevelt to take action or even let the public in on what he knew.

 

 

Zelenskiy was offering the “international community” an opportunity to redeem itself. His scenario has largely been accepted. It reached its apogee when hundreds of civilian corpses were discovered near Kyiv. Against the advice of his own State Department, President Joe Biden declared this to be genocide. With few exceptions, NATO allies accepted this judgment.  

Genocide is a loaded word. What the Russians have done in Ukraine is despicable, but it’s not mass extermination. Unlike the Turkish slaughter of a million Armenians, or the hundreds of thousands of Tutsi victims in Rwanda in 1994, the Ukrainians aren’t isolated, ignored or defenseless. They may even win the war. I hope they do.  

The government of Israel knows that this isn’t genocide, a belief that probably modulates its response to the war. But Israel also doesn’t want to get too far away from its American patron. It has shown its goodwill by sending tons of humanitarian aid, building a field hospital and taking in thousands of Ukrainian refugees. This week it announced that it’s sending helmets and flak jackets “for the use of civilian rescue workers.”

 

 

After Biden’s genocide declaration, the Israeli foreign minister joined the international chorus of outrage. “Intentionally harming a civilian population is a war crime and I strongly condemn it,” he said. And Israel joined the other Western democracies at the UN General Assembly in suspending Russian membership in the UN Human Rights Council.   

Russia was furious. The Israeli ambassador to Moscow was summoned and given a tongue lashing in language not heard by an Israeli diplomat since the fall of the Soviet Union. To emphasize his displeasure, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a friendly and much publicized chat with Palestinian President Mohammed Abbas. This was a warning. Another step in the wrong direction and Israel would be on its own to stop Iranian aggression in Syria.

It’s a genuine threat. But getting crosswise with the U.S. would be even more reckless. For Israel, the sensible choice right now is to keep dancing, try to stay off the toes of its rival partners and pray for the music to end. 

Edited January 2, 2023 by Bevo

[atomheartbevo 89416]

32 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yup. We thought they had built a lightweight, titanium monstrosity with incredible maneuverability and speed. It turned out that all the design cues we thought indicated super advanced materials and performance were actually done just to keep the thing airborne with the simple, heavy materials used. 

Ponder this: The B-52 was designed in the same timeframe, and entered service the same year (1952) as the TU-95.  I'm not saying it looks modern, but it definitely looks like it was designed later than it actually was.  It looks Vietnam-era (I know, it's a bias from them being an iconic aircraft from that era).

The TU-95 looks like a "what if Boeing decided to take the B-29 and make it 50% larger and sweep the wings back".

The Soviets pumped out a lot of really weird stuff.  I give them credit, the TU-95 still functions, but at what cost.  At least the B-52 gives you a lot of options to upgrade it, and  given how much is replaced, I wonder how much is left from the 1950s of any B-52 - kind of a Ship of Theseus problem.