Русский корабль - иди нахуй

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[Gatorubet 30097]

42 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I think that was all part of the vision for the EU's expansion to encompass most of the Warsaw Pact countries of Eastern Europe. Certain, Germany saw it as an opportunity, and I'm fairly sure a lot of the German auto industry supply chain extends well into Poland, Czechia, etc. Recently, I was reading about the Itermarium project that emerged in the interwar period to fully integrate Eastern Europe to fend off Russian expansion and efforts to bring back some version of it for basically the same purpose. If Ukraine somehow wins this, or if it ends in an extended cease fire, I can totally see the idea taking off.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermarium

Thanks for posting. Fascinating. I knew nothing about this - other than knowing about the historical Polish Lithuanian Union (and Jan Sobieski, etc. )

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^Still in the denial stage of grief I see.

 

[956 Worldwide 34440]

57 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I think that was all part of the vision for the EU's expansion to encompass most of the Warsaw Pact countries of Eastern Europe. Certain, Germany saw it as an opportunity, and I'm fairly sure a lot of the German auto industry supply chain extends well into Poland, Czechia, etc. Recently, I was reading about the Itermarium project that emerged in the interwar period to fully integrate Eastern Europe to fend off Russian expansion and efforts to bring back some version of it for basically the same purpose. If Ukraine somehow wins this, or if it ends in an extended cease fire, I can totally see the idea taking off.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermarium

There is already something sort of tangential to this idea kicking around, it’s called the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) and the U.S. has gone through several phases of being completely enamored with to “it’s cool, I guess.”  
 

But the inter-war was a different period and Poland was looking for a way to survive while wedged between great powers. That isn’t the case anymore. I’d expect Poland and the EU Central Europeans to be leading and advocating for full integration but the momentum will be absorption into EU, NATO, and other transatlantic structures. 
 

And yes, all of these nations are critical to the German (all Europe really) auto supply chain. Slovakia is most reliant.  And the Germans have been flagging that skilled labor ain’t so affordable there anymore, to the point of lobbying for Ukrainian and Serbian guest workers.  Bringing Ukraine, Moldava, the Balkans, etc fully into that chain is going to require not only infrastructure investment but more importantly stability, security and rule of law that comes with EU and NATO. 

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^Same tactic Germans used to avoid Rape by Russians

[bolverk 29399]

7 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There is already something sort of tangential to this idea kicking around, it’s called the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) and the U.S. has gone through several phases of being completely enamored with to “it’s cool, I guess.”  
 

But the inter-war was a different period and Poland was looking for a way to survive while wedged between great powers. That isn’t the case anymore. I’d expect Poland and the EU Central Europeans to be leading and advocating for full integration but the momentum will be absorption into EU, NATO, and other transatlantic structures. 
 

And yes, all of these nations are critical to the German (all Europe really) auto supply chain. Slovakia is most reliant.  And the Germans have been flagging that skilled labor ain’t so affordable there anymore, to the point of lobbying for Ukrainian and Serbian guest workers.  Bringing Ukraine, Moldava, the Balkans, etc fully into that chain is going to require not only infrastructure investment but more importantly stability, security and rule of law that comes with EU and NATO. 

Thank you. It was actually the Three Seas Initiative that brought me down the rabbit hole to learn about the Intermarium. A couple of years ago, I watched this YouTube video that outlined the 3SI, but I couldn't remember the name of it when responding to Brisket.

 

Edited January 8, 2023 by bolverk

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[956 Worldwide 34440]

4 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

There is no finer a capella music in the world than an Old Church Slavonic liturgy. 

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[956 Worldwide 34440]

51 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Apologies for the CR content, but it's pretty directly relevant to Ukraine's future and preventing further death at the hands of the Russians:

Kevin McCarthy 'agreed to cut aid to Ukraine' to secure US speaker role

There may be less aid flowing to Ukraine in the future thanks to our jalopy legislative system

One thing to remember is that there’s funding through fiscal year 2023 thanks to the omnibus.

[Parliament 14134]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I’ve got some thoughts noodling around in my head about how, if this war ends in something close to the right way, Eastern Europe could be a “next economic frontier” with respect to redevelopment, cheap access to property and labor, and perhaps some thoughtful immigration to those places. But those thoughts sure haven’t gelled. I’d be curious to know/read some of the information out there on what people much smarter than I am think Eastern Europe might look like 10 years from now.

They're Mexico with out tacos.  Close to a buncha demand, cheaper labor.  All they gotta do is pull their head out of their butts, fix their government, invest in infrastructure, etc.  (And start making tacos.)

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[956 Worldwide 34440]

Looks like Russia committed a bunch (more) war crimes. 
 

 

[Brisketexan 104604]

21 minutes ago, Parliament said:

They're Mexico with out tacos.  Close to a buncha demand, cheaper labor.  All they gotta do is pull their head out of their butts, fix their government, invest in infrastructure, etc.  (And start making tacos.)

Very much my thinking.  And, per the boy's efforts last year, I now know that the Ukrainian word for taco is......"tako."  So, there's that.

I have friends who had significant ongoing projects with Ukrainian tech guys (programmers etc.), spoke very highly of them.  There are/will be opportunities, depending on when/how the war shakes out.  Even setting aside Ukraine, the war has had the effect of shoving other Eastern European states even closer to the west.  Ties will increase, opportunities will as well.

[Gatorubet 30097]

“600 HIMARS and 600 Zelenskys”. LOL

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[bernorange 8348]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

Thanks for that.  In the comments to the thread, I found this, which is also a good read:

https://twitter.com/joseph__place/status/1608869689836597250

[956 Worldwide 34440]

The IR geek world fires a salvo back at IR geek and current asshole John Mearsheimer. 
 

 

 

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[Brisketexan 104604]

[/url]  

Love that Kazakh journalist piece.
Reminds me of my grandfather’s stories of civilians in WWII - he fought from France, to the Netherlands, to Germany.
He didn’t much care for the French or even the Dutch; said they saw themselves as victims, didn’t do much to help themselves.
But he admired the hell out of the Germans. They’d enter a village still burning from the battle, and the German people would already have emerged from their shelter, sort of through the rubble (simple things like saving bricks that could be re-used - you probably remember a similar scene in BOB). They would share what little food they had, he loved potato bread to his dying day. That attitude positioned Germany well when they had to rebuild a country that was utterly shattered.
The rest of the world is learning a lot about the character of everyday Ukrainians.

[Bateshorn 9899]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

One thing to remember is that there’s funding through fiscal year 2023 thanks to the omnibus.

They also padded the NDAA with all sorts of authority to allow the administration to transfer weapons and order replacement equipment without having to come back to Congress. 

[Captainant 27450]

31 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

They also padded the NDAA with all sorts of authority to allow the administration to transfer weapons and order replacement equipment without having to come back to Congress. 

Honestly that's a little concerning if we were to ever get a war hawk in office. But whatever, safeguards are for suckers

[Bateshorn 9899]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Honestly that's a little concerning if we were to ever get a war hawk in office. But whatever, safeguards are for suckers

Sober oversight of the military left the building in the late fall of 2001.  Raytheon lobbyist out front shoulda told ya.

[Nivek 16859]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Love that Kazakh journalist piece.
Reminds me of my grandfather’s stories of civilians in WWII - he fought from France, to the Netherlands, to Germany.
He didn’t much care for the French or even the Dutch; said they saw themselves as victims, didn’t do much to help themselves.
But he admired the hell out of the Germans. They’d enter a village still burning from the battle, and the German people would already have emerged from their shelter, sort of through the rubble (simple things like saving bricks that could be re-used - you probably remember a similar scene in BOB). They would share what little food they had, he loved potato bread to his dying day. That attitude positioned Germany well when they had to rebuild a country that was utterly shattered.
The rest of the world is learning a lot about the character of everyday Ukrainians.

Um, well they were the victims of the Germans....

[KYHorn 16863]

Pretty informative analysis of the current state of the war from Michael Kofman. Podcast about 30 mins long.

https://warontherocks.libsyn.com/a-disquieting-winter-at-war-in-ukraine

[MillerEP 30339]

Been reading this guys blog for a while now, but he brings up some interesting points about fighting now that the snow is really hitting that I haven't thought about: 

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/01/08/it-got-all-but-one-of-them-killed/

Quote

 

“It got all but one of them killed.”
 Ukrainian War Volunteer Uncategorized January 8, 2023 9 Minutes
A bit after 3 AM, and my phone says it is 4 degrees outside. We managed to find a heater of sorts that somebody rigged up out of a cut barrel and an old stovepipe. The wood in it is damp, so a lot of smoke and not much heat. We started it with C4 and cardboard. But, it is 22 degrees inside this hole, so that is a marked difference. The smoke says it is drawing well, so we just get close and try to absorb every exited molecule that impinges on us. I wish it would excite my molecules more.

C— has a bag of meatballs, but they froze solid, so he impales them on the tip of his knife and sticks them in the fire.

I am reading Ruark and listening to Faith Hill, which makes me want to wash my balls and go to town. But, Kreminna does not seem ready for a proper night on the town.

Had a meeting today about SR (special reconnaissance) operations in snow – if and when it ever comes. I don’t have a lot of experience in this realm, other than back in my climbing days, and nobody was shooting at me on those jaunts, and book learning and training…training many years ago.

Actually, the Yooks know more about this than we do, so it was us just adding a bit here and there, and them doing the training. I had forgotten about tree wells, which is a real danger in really deep snow or heavy drifts. It was a good session though, one reason being we were in a heated tent, which, under the circumstances was as amazing as laying on a tropical beach.

C— added that on skis, the enemy can follow faster in your tracks and catch up with you, so you mine your tracks. But, in frozen snow AP (anti-personnel) mines do not always work well, so you cut out a piece of track, set the mine, then place the cut piece back.

Lot of common-sense stuff like painting claymores to match trees or snow, and painting the forks of bounding mines white for snow. And, it does not take much white paint and an Earl Scheib job on a rifle or grenade launcher to hide it pretty effectively.

One good thing about the AK platform is it rarely freezes-up in extreme cold, like AR platforms can. The problems with both is if you take them from warm to cold, they both can freeze and malfunction. The AR firing pins tend to lock, which can be worked loose with hand cycling or butt stroking. The AK, once fired and heated from being frozen, will rust like hell in no time.

So, right now, under the small amount of heat we have, both our rifles are outside. It is not near cold enough for pin lock, unless moisture was already in there. Am not dissing the AR, it works very well in the cold, the difference is the AK has looser clearances, and has more pin pressure.

From today, looks like we will be doing more front-running for larger exploitation forces. We have one cache left in that neck of the woods, so if we can get to it, can operate forward for a week at the most without dropping-back to the EF (exploitation force). That assumes it has not been discovered, and is either gone, mined or covered.

One of the things we assume, is as we get closer to the main enemy forces, the use of drones with thermals imaging will be more prevalent. Our only real defense is the heavy clothing we are wearing, the use of wool and mylar blankets, and natural stuff like leaves and limbs.

The most danger is when you are on the move, since thermal suppression gear is not much in use, and heat signature is higher. venting heat is also an issue when on the QT in a hide. Getting in a bag and covering-up with snow is effective, but you have to use the same thermal suppression measures to keep your body heat from melting the snow. The way you do it is one guy stays out of cover, and uses our own imaging to check our signature. It is a pain in the ass and takes time, but is necessary.

What we really need is mylar suits with hoods. But, you still have venting from breathing, which would also need suppressing.

If snow is around in significant amounts, one can dig a snow cave, which is highly effective. Or, you can pile snow up and create a hut of sorts. The entrance can be covered with a painted poncho. The problem here is, if you have several people in it, you have to vent the roof, and that can create a thermal signature from breathing and body heat. Piling sticks and leaves over it helps disperse it.

Real “Winter War” stuff!

Yeah, just making sure everyone is up-to-speed on possibilities. I learned a lot.

Laying-up in heavy tree growth helps, since trees do produce heat from radiant reheat and chemical synthesis. It does however reduce significantly in winter time in both respects.

Since we do not typically have the luxury of hot food in the field, we hydrate the bag and carry it for a few hours at least to make it palatable. In this extreme cold, it has to go next to your body, inside your clothes or it will freeze.

Old thru-hiking trick.

Yep. But, hot water sure is nice….:)

One of the Yook instructors told us about a recon group that covered a hide with a poncho, and did not notice the wind got up and the poncho was flapping and making noise. It got all but one of them killed.

Must be some LRRP/Battlefield Recon cold wx tricks applicable.

I know most of them, and they do have things like baffled masks to minimize breathing heat and so on.

They also laughed that some US military manual suggested carrying weapons that work well in the cold, and said “This may require equipping with foreign weapons.” The humor was, they meant the AK platform, but did not specifically say that.

For that matter, the AK worked well in Vietnam. You could submerge it in a river and it would come out cycling. If it got jammed with mud, a butt stroke or two would usually get it going (making sure barrel is clear).

All this cold and snow talk is depressing. My next war will be something on the order of the Polynesian War of Independence.

I hear the Waikiki Liberation Front is looking for brave muhajeddin.

Ala E hele kaua!

The Lanai Convention requires us to fight with only short Leiomanos, and sign a truce every day at dusk for an Imu, cold beer and fornicating.

I think Tahiti would be a great place to fight, the details depending on whether you are a hired gun with the French or the Tahitians. I don’t like Poi, so that is a check mark for the French right there. Good cover, good weather…you don’t have to worry about your re-hydrated Pate de foie gras freezing.

My conversation right now is overly and to an unhealthy degree influenced by the cold. If I was in Vietnam, I would be bitching about the heat and humidity. I am a tender soldier.

 

 

[Bateshorn 9899]

You guys wanna tl:Dr that longcat shit?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

You guys wanna tl:Dr that longcat shit?

It’s cold there and they try to stay warm but take lots of precautions to suppress their heat emissions.

And it’s written by a guy that fought in Vietnam?

[KYHorn 16863]

Imagine that...

Edited January 9, 2023 by KYHorn

[Hook1997 5287]

Anyone see this anywhere else?  Putin might be close to dying from cancer any day now possibly!?

[atomheartbevo 89424]

I've been hearing the cancer thing since February.

[Schulz2.0 28768]

10 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

Anyone see this anywhere else?  Putin might be close to dying from cancer any day now possibly!?

Probably wouldn't change anything even if he died. The invasion isn't just a Putin thing. It's very much a Russia thing.

[atomheartbevo 89424]

8 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Probably wouldn't change anything even if he died. The invasion isn't just a Putin thing. It's very much a Russia thing.

I think it would change some things - I think you'd see some people in the streets, and the Duma has to have quite a few members not happy about the war, plus the oligarchs.

And it will set off a power struggle since Putin set himself up to be dictator for life.  Plus, Putin put so much effort into getting rid of competent leaders, and even creating a PMC that reports directly to him, what happens when he kicks off and the PMC leadership makes a power grab for non-PMC units and then decides to come back to Russia?  Those PMC types ain't going to put up with shit from Russian cops.

Oh, and the first batch of criminals that fought in Ukraine for Wagner are being released back into the wild, and who do they have to thank? Prigozhin.

Then again, whoever takes over, and I don't see it being bloodless, may do the "We have to take Ukraine to honor Putin."

[Pods 7528]

32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think it would change some things - I think you'd see some people in the streets, and the Duma has to have quite a few members not happy about the war, plus the oligarchs.

And it will set off a power struggle since Putin set himself up to be dictator for life.  Plus, Putin put so much effort into getting rid of competent leaders, and even creating a PMC that reports directly to him, what happens when he kicks off and the PMC leadership makes a power grab for non-PMC units and then decides to come back to Russia?  Those PMC types ain't going to put up with shit from Russian cops.

Oh, and the first batch of criminals that fought in Ukraine for Wagner are being released back into the wild, and who do they have to thank? Prigozhin.

Then again, whoever takes over, and I don't see it being bloodless, may do the "We have to take Ukraine to honor Putin."

It's also going to depend on timing. Prigozhin/PMC's have gradually been accumulating more power at the expense of the professional Russian army and leadership. Also, as you pointed out, Prigozhin just released a bunch of criminals back into the wild. I think it will be interesting to see if they owe him loyalty for their freedom from prison, or if they fault him for the awful conditions they were deployed in. Prigozhin has apparently successfully blamed most of that on the professional Russian military and leadership, so the convict army likely sides with him. Putin used ties with the Russian mob to help consolidate power and that's an obvious route for Prigozhin to follow. 

At this point, he would have to be considered the favorite to replace Putin, having a private army and a network of criminals. The longer it takes, the stronger Prigozhin's hand gets.

Regarding how that effects the war, there are people in Russia that Ukraine and the West could potentially hold discussions with. Prigozhin is not one of them. He's a criminal thug that would be a complete non-starter as a leader that Ukraine/the West could actually negotiate with, so the war would likely continue and depend on how strong his hold on power is. 

Regardless of who it is, it's going to be difficult for anyone to match the level of control Putin has seized, especially on such an accelerated time scale. Unfortunately, the Russian people have proven themselves to lack even an ounce of independence, or self-respect, so they'll likely stand aside and accept the new czar and do what they are told. Same as they always have. 

[Schulz2.0 28768]

 

[InkaUtexas 25516]

Gonna be an interesting winter. 

Uparm Ukraine. Hold the Orcs back and hammer them come spring. 

 

[Schulz2.0 28768]

 

[956 Worldwide 34440]

Good article on the German decision (or forced hand) to give Marders to Ukraine.  Olaf’s strategy is to delay, deflect, then be forced to do the thing he didn’t want to do anyway. 
 

Quote

“Germany had every opportunity to take the initiative to move first on tank deliveries and be hailed as a leader,” Berlin explained. “But the Scholz chancellery refused. It is not France's fault that Germany waited too long to act.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230107-did-france-surprise-germany-by-pledging-tanks-for-ukraine 

[KYHorn 16863]

Especially when you can't even use your own yacht!

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

4 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

What a novel concept.

[statsman 5424]

When all is said and done about Germany’s contribution to Ukraine’s defense, a lot more will have been said than done. 

[DaggerHorns 3058]

7 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Probably wouldn't change anything even if he died. The invasion isn't just a Putin thing. It's very much a Russia thing.

Wrong. Everything would change.

Mysterious deaths of key people, economic ruin, protests that are vocal or people escaping war….all of these things are not driven by a unified country. This is a dictator that is destroying his own country.

If he’s still alive when this Ukraine issue is over, you’ll see different leadership. Sadly, I think as long as he’s alive, his obsession with stealing land will also continue.

[Chad Fuck 17565]

Wrong. Everything would change.
Mysterious deaths of key people, economic ruin, protests that are vocal or people escaping war….all of these things are not driven by a unified country. This is a dictator that is destroying his own country.
If he’s still alive when this Ukraine issue is over, you’ll see different leadership. Sadly, I think as long as he’s alive, his obsession with stealing land will also continue.

I think you’re correct. But it isn’t just Putins obsessions. It’s been a Russian obsession for time immemorial. So we will have to deal with it as long as there is Russia.

[statsman 5424]

Maybe, when Putin dies, someone will notice that just as Russian nationalists talk about how Russia has a historical claim on many of the former USSR lands, Chinese nationalists talk about even older historical claims on the eastern half of Russia. 

[KYHorn 16863]

 

 

 

Edited January 9, 2023 by KYHorn