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Posted

Putting aside Germany's views on the war, the Germans are going to piss off enough potential customers, that will then look elsewhere for future purchases (French, British, American, and South Korean companies are all making tanks that could eat into German tank sales).

On the other hand, maybe there's something else going on and the Germans are worried the Leopards won't perform very well, which will eat into German tank sales.

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Posted
  On 1/20/2023 at 2:13 PM, Nivek said:

https://thesovietarmourblog.blogspot.com/p/30x165mm-cartridges.html

This guy's blog seems to indicate it is only effective against some tanks at <1000m from a pure perpendicular shot for the HEI rounds.  The AP rounds are effective against some spots on the old Bradleys/Marders and but the more recent ones should have nothing to worry about.   Is he right?

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Sorry I missed this.  First, that blog is awesome.

Second, it's possible they couldn't do too much, but even if you ripped off a few hundred rounds at some tanks at that range (and in the city, the ranges would be closer), you'd still immobilize the tanks when the treads are destroyed, as well as any sensors on the turret.

I could see it being psychological though - any potential coup plotters thinking they could drive tanks up to the Kremlin and the other areas are going to have to contend with those batteries, as well as dudes with missiles.

 

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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 4:44 AM, atomheartbevo said:

Putting aside Germany's views on the war, the Germans are going to piss off enough potential customers, that will then look elsewhere for future purchases (French, British, American, and South Korean companies are all making tanks that could eat into German tank sales).

On the other hand, maybe there's something else going on and the Germans are worried the Leopards won't perform very well, which will eat into German tank sales.

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I honestly think it has to do with the green subsidies in the Biden Energy Bill.  I think they are pissed about export markets.

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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 4:51 AM, Bateshorn said:

I honestly think it has to do with the green subsidies in the Biden Energy Bill.  I think they are pissed about export markets.

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I am skeptical. First, because they’re still Allies and generally know better than to play this way when it comes to linking critical security issues to unrelated disagreements. 
 

But more importantly, this is working at cross purposes on that front. It’s not really us that’s leaning on them for the tanks, it’s Ukraine and most notably, other EU partners. They are the ones that want to send tanks and they are the ones that have their security most impacted by Ukraine, not us.  We’ve actually been pretty quiet and had those talks privately. 
 

Germany is pissed about the Inflation Reduction Act and Energy Bill and some of our closest friends in the EU have been telling us that Germany’s gearing up for a knock-down, drag out over it. 
 

So what they should be doing, if that’s really most important, is wooing all the rest of the EU27 by being super accommodating on other stuff. .  Not pissing off the EU nations that are already the most friendly towards America anyway over the tank issue. That’s not the way to get the EU to face us down in a nasty protectionism battle. 
 

A lot of this was concealed by Merkel’s unique presence and the Trump/Johnson years, but structurally, Germany is really weak at strategy and using its various levers to advance its goals.  They’re not good at it and we are seeing that now. 

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Posted
  On 1/20/2023 at 8:09 PM, InkaUtexas said:

Not everyone thought the UA was going to roll over. @MillerEP, @atomheartbevo and @956 Worldwide and myself had faith. A defensive battle is a bitch to calculate. Russians attacked at the wrong time. 

I did expect them to own the air, but to my happiness that did not happen. 

Fuck Russia and their military. "They look good on the parade ground, but can they fight?" 

The Ukrainians have 8+ years of western training (US, UK, Canada) training on how to run command and control, leadership and coordination. That means a lot. 

Give them M-1's (8 only) to defend Kyiv. That opens up the door for leopards for ops. 

 

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I haven’t gone through the old posts but I think I cautioned @Shady Ray and others that Ukraine was gonna be a much tougher nut than everyone thought and that Mariupol in particular would end up a total blood bath all around. I was shocked that Russia did not make more use of its strategic aviation and their general ineffectiveness (well, and not even attempt) at combined arms operations in the opening weeks. 
 

I don’t think anyone got this all right, anywhere. The Ukrainians are the ones that have earned unlimited respect through their blood. I hope after the war that we train them on systems and they teach us how to fucking fight. 

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Posted

This is not how you want your EU partners and treaty Allies communicating with you as you’re trying to convince them to stare down America over green tech subsidies: 

 

 

https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2023/01/germany-ukraine-tanks-roadblock-europe
 

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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 8:26 AM, 956 Worldwide said:

I haven’t gone through the old posts but I think I cautioned @Shady Ray and others that Ukraine was gonna be a much tougher nut than everyone thought and that Mariupol in particular would end up a total blood bath all around. I was shocked that Russia did not make more use of its strategic aviation and their general ineffectiveness (well, and not even attempt) at combined arms operations in the opening weeks. 
 

I don’t think anyone got this all right, anywhere. The Ukrainians are the ones that have earned unlimited respect through their blood. I hope after the war that we train them on systems and they teach us how to fucking fight. 

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I thought for sure Russia was going to roll over Ukraine like they did back in 2014 when the Ukraine government did manage to put together an armed force to go deal with the separatists. The UAF was doing really well until the Russian army crossed the border and completely annihilated them. Add in air support by what I thought would be a first world air force, I thought Ukraine's best chance was an elongated guerilla warfare that exacted too big a price on Russia for them to stick around. 

I completely overestimated Russia getting results over the past dozen years by modernizing their core armed force units into extremely well equipped, well trained, highly mobile force multipliers. I underestimated the insidious effect of putting a higher priority on loyalty and not being a potential threat to the "emperor" which was first made clear to me in Gibbons' Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Same kind of dynamics at work. The corruption is endemic, starting at the top. The internal security is valued more highly than the military. And people who don't parrot the orthodoxy according to Putin can have their lives ruined or ended. 

Now I just want Ukraine to get a chance to finish this thing. I'm very hopeful we'll see some breakthroughs versus the Russian defensive lines if the UAF has access to enough armor, and then we'll see how the demoralized Russian troops respond. 

There are a bunch of countries all willing to give 14 Leopard 2's apiece to Ukraine. Enough to just about add up to 100 or more. It's not the 300 they're asking for, but that's a good start in any case. 

Boy, this thing is going to be a logistics nightmare this spring and summer with all these various western systems coming into the theater. I don't see how they can feasibly maintain and repair all these different systems effectively. 

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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 9:08 AM, SL Xpress said:

There are a bunch of countries all willing to give 14 Leopard 2's apiece to Ukraine. Enough to just about add up to 100 or more. It's not the 300 they're asking for, but that's a good start in any case. 

Boy, this thing is going to be a logistics nightmare this spring and summer with all these various western systems coming into the theater. I don't see how they can feasibly maintain and repair all these different systems effectively. 

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If you’re looking for why we aren’t just giving them Abrams, this is it. We’re not throwing whatever we have so they can mount a desperate defense.  Leopards are the solution for a Western MBT to use in any offensive. 

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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 9:44 AM, 956 Worldwide said:

If you’re looking for why we aren’t just giving them Abrams, this is it. We’re not throwing whatever we have so they can mount a desperate defense.  Leopards are the solution for a Western MBT to use in any offensive. 

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Literally the only reason to give the Ukrainians the gas guzzling, high maintenance, expensive logistics nightmare Abrams is to compel Germany to give permission on the Leopards. That's it. Germany doesn't even have that many Leopards themselves, so they'd be a minor direct exporter at best. The manufacturer isn't prepared to build Leopards either for Ukraine or to backfill other countries supplying them with any kind of alacrity. It's literally just compelling the German government to give foreign governments the go ahead to do what they want to do already. Several of them such as Poland already indicating they're going to do it anyway with or without permission. 

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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 2:19 PM, KYHorn said:
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So in restrospect, was the Abrams wrong?  Should we have kept working with Germany in the 70's on a joint MBT?  Hey, the Abrams is the most kickass tank there is.  But it's a Lamborghini Avendator in a NATO filled with F150's that are more than capable.  Should we have got the Leopard, put a tune and a lift kit on it, maybe some stripes, and called it good?

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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 2:59 PM, Parliament said:

So in restrospect, was the Abrams wrong?  Should we have kept working with Germany in the 70's on a joint MBT?  Hey, the Abrams is the most kickass tank there is.  But it's a Lamborghini Avendator in a NATO filled with F150's that are more than capable.  Should we have got the Leopard, put a tune and a lift kit on it, maybe some stripes, and called it good?

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Tank Nutz??

CHIEF

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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 2:59 PM, Parliament said:

So in restrospect, was the Abrams wrong?  Should we have kept working with Germany in the 70's on a joint MBT?  Hey, the Abrams is the most kickass tank there is.  But it's a Lamborghini Avendator in a NATO filled with F150's that are more than capable.  Should we have got the Leopard, put a tune and a lift kit on it, maybe some stripes, and called it good?

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I see what you are saying.

But the thing about the Aventador is that it is fucking kick ass and everyone wants it when it drives by. The problem with maintenance costs, logistics, fuel are only “problems” for the people that can’t afford it/manage it.

The US can afford the Aventador\Abrams and the decision to build it (as mentioned up thread) was never to be exporting it to other countries to fight with.

So to ask if the Abrams is “wrong” is only pertinent to this exact situation.

I doubt anyone in Command in Iraq ever wondered, “ I sure wish we had some German Leapords instead of these AWESOME Abrams”

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Posted

The Abrams was built at a time when we began to believe we could defeat the Soviets in a conventional war, although we’d be outgunned quantitatively. 
 

That war never happened but we can’t say we were “wrong” because it’s not the best platform to help one part of the former Union defeat another. 

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Posted (edited)

Hey I get it.  Wondering out loud is all.  

Last night some people were fantasizing about scenarios where the war escalated (and presumably didn't go nuclear.) My fantasy is 1000 American Leopards being delivered with full gas tanks and magazines, to the UKA in October 2022.   

Edited by Parliament
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Posted

Don’t Fear Putin’s Demise

Victory for Ukraine, Democracy for Russia

 
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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 4:15 PM, Orange&White said:

I see what you are saying.

But the thing about the Aventador is that it is fucking kick ass and everyone wants it when it drives by. The problem with maintenance costs, logistics, fuel are only “problems” for the people that can’t afford it/manage it.

The US can afford the Aventador\Abrams and the decision to build it (as mentioned up thread) was never to be exporting it to other countries to fight with.

So to ask if the Abrams is “wrong” is only pertinent to this exact situation.

I doubt anyone in Command in Iraq ever wondered, “ I sure wish we had some German Leapords instead of these AWESOME Abrams”

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If you have the logistics, the Abrams is the tits.  

This isn’t about the Abrams, it’s about the Germans wanting the war to end in some sort of current status quo in hopes of reviving its cheap commodities relationship with Russia that allows it (Germany) to go back to the export driven economy and 800 lb. Gorilla in EU politics.  
 

That isn’t going to happen. The fact the Dutch are on the edge of telling the Germans to fuck themselves and ship tanks directly tells you where the winds are blowing. 

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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 7:10 PM, Post Oak said:

Zeihan thinks that's what is going to happen and then those Euro countries will just buy Abrams instead of Leopards to fill their needs

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Live feed from the General Dynamics board room:

AnchoredFlashyBrownbutterfly-small.gif

 

And those gas hog Abrams's are gonna need a LOT of sweet, sweet Houston-refined jet fuel.  God damn it's good to be a gansta!

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Posted

ETA

The US lets Saudi Arabia use their Abrams's to commit genocide in Yemen, so those European customers won't hafta worry about is ever getting all uppity about how they're gonna use them.  

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Posted

That post about the Russian Action Committee is wishcasting.

Yes, Putin’s regime has to die. And yes, it’s right to be concerned about what will replace it. And, I hate to break it to you, RAC…you don’t have a chance. Russian society and the Russian people aren’t going to take to “democracy and the rule of law.” Ever. I don’t know what the answer is, I just know that their plan is a pipe dream.

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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 7:32 PM, Parliament said:

ETA

The US lets Saudi Arabia use their Abrams's to commit genocide in Yemen, so those European customers won't hafta worry about is ever getting all uppity about how they're gonna use them.  

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French let the UAE use the LeClerc to do the same. 

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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 7:50 PM, Brisketexan said:

That post about the Russian Action Committee is wishcasting.

Yes, Putin’s regime has to die. And yes, it’s right to be concerned about what will replace it. And, I hate to break it to you, RAC…you don’t have a chance. Russian society and the Russian people aren’t going to take to “democracy and the rule of law.” Ever. I don’t know what the answer is, I just know that their plan is a pipe dream.

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I’ve been thinking about this lately Brisket.  In the 1940s I’m sure I would’ve said this about a defeated Japan and a defeated Germany as well.  Two countries that breathed authoritarian air and had it in their DNA.  And while the former Soviet union crumbled, it was an economic and not a military defeat.   In other words, the current Russian federation has a mindset more like Germany after World War I.  While defeated, they still harbored some conscious or subconscious view that they really weren’t defeated - they were just betrayed by Gorbachov, etc. 

Both of the other enemy countries that we defeated concerned an actual blown to shit, killed huge numbers of men military defeat.   In both cases an extremely humiliating defeat that made them question their view that they were the respective master races of their area.    Only when they were totally conquered and their noses shoved in shit did they come to realize that the better way was democracy and western capitalism.  

So maybe the fault is Russia not having experienced their noses shoved in shit through an actual crushing military defeat killing lots of Russians and destroying their economy.   Not an economic depression like the collapse of the Soviet Union, but a good old fashioned military defeat coupled with a North Korean economy - and olds and widows not getting pensions anymore. 

Let’s do that and see how it turns out. Maybe they will collectively get right in their heads when the pain meter is set at 11 instead of at 5.  If not, let them spend the next 50 years in dirt clod fights between Russian villages over limited amounts of spoiled cabbage. 

  On 1/21/2023 at 7:32 PM, Parliament said:

ETA

The US lets Saudi Arabia use their Abrams's to commit genocide in Yemen, so those European customers won't hafta worry about is ever getting all uppity about how they're gonna use them.  

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Did you have to send the bat signal up for Ani?

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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 7:32 PM, Parliament said:

ETA

The US lets Saudi Arabia use their Abrams's to commit genocide in Yemen, so those European customers won't hafta worry about is ever getting all uppity about how they're gonna use them.  

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  On 1/21/2023 at 7:54 PM, Bateshorn said:

French let the UAE use the LeClerc to do the same. 

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Simplistic and facile. With the Yemeni rebels launching scuds into Saudi refineries, drones into Saudi cities, and threatening global trade in the Red sea, what would you have the Saudis do?

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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 8:50 PM, MillerEP said:

 

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Where the fuck is the seized yacht???!?!?!?!??!!!!

"Uh, a couple of sailors took it out to get it washed sir/"

GET IT WASHED?!?!? 

seriously, that can't be that hard to find using satellite.  Oh wait, it's Italy.  That country I always think of first when it comes to maritime integrity.  

Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 11:07 PM, YGIFS said:

Where the fuck is the seized yacht???!?!?!?!??!!!!

"Uh, a couple of sailors took it out to get it washed sir/"

GET IT WASHED?!?!? 

seriously, that can't be that hard to find using satellite.  Oh wait, it's Italy.  That country I always think of first when it comes to maritime integrity.  

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Italian satellites?

[Qanon-ing intensifies]

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Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 11:07 PM, YGIFS said:

Where the fuck is the seized yacht???!?!?!?!??!!!!

"Uh, a couple of sailors took it out to get it washed sir/"

GET IT WASHED?!?!? 

seriously, that can't be that hard to find using satellite.  Oh wait, it's Italy.  That country I always think of first when it comes to maritime integrity.  

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If you had a satellite tracking it constantly, you could find it easily. But even using computer vision techniques to crunch through satellite imagery takes a while. Oceans are fucking big it turns out lol

Posted

Yes, oceans are big.  But I just assumed that he took it through Istanbul to the Black Sea and Turkey would have noticed it.  

Or they tried to get out to the Atlantic but Britain photographs every single ship passing through Gibraltar.  Maybe the Red Sea? 

Posted
  On 1/21/2023 at 11:24 PM, YGIFS said:

Yes, oceans are big.  But I just assumed that he took it through Istanbul to the Black Sea and Turkey would have noticed it.  

Or they tried to get out to the Atlantic but Britain photographs every single ship passing through Gibraltar.  Maybe the Red Sea? 

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Do you even dazzle camouflage, bro?

dazzle_camo_1050x700.jpg

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