Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[SquishMitten 10401]

We've seen tons a discussion about them needing tanks, but I don't think I've seen anything on how many are needed. Obviously, every one makes a difference, but how many is enough to truly change the course of the war? 

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

oh good grief:

 

Months? Eh, I could believe that. But years? No way. That could only be the timeline if we were making them from scratch.

[Dahobbs 17447]

9 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

We've seen tons a discussion about them needing tanks, but I don't think I've seen anything on how many are needed. Obviously, every one makes a difference, but how many is enough to truly change the course of the war? 

I believe Ukraine has stated that I believe 400-600 modern MBT would allow them sufficient force to kick Russia out. I don't really believe that is enough, but that is what Ukraine has said. 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

https://snyder.substack.com/p/why-the-world-needs-ukrainian-victory?r=50j1k&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Moscow feeling threatened

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[956 Worldwide 34444]

34 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

We've seen tons a discussion about them needing tanks, but I don't think I've seen anything on how many are needed. Obviously, every one makes a difference, but how many is enough to truly change the course of the war? 

Months? Eh, I could believe that. But years? No way. That could only be the timeline if we were making them from scratch.

That may be basically what we are doing.

Quote

U.S. officials said details are still being worked out. One official said the tanks would be bought under an upcoming Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative package, which provides longer-range funding for weapons and equipment to be purchased from commercial vendors.

Let’s wait and see when (and if) it’s announced what the program and funding source is. It may be the case that this is more a face-saving measure for ole Olaf to get Leopards there NOW. If so, it’s not a bad thing. It’s a nice stroke of diplomacy and getting to yes with him. 

[Bateshorn 9905]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

That may be basically what we are doing.

Let’s wait and see when (and if) it’s announced what the program and funding source is. It may be the case that this is more a face-saving measure for ole Olaf to get Leopards there NOW. If so, it’s not a bad thing. It’s a nice stroke of diplomacy and getting to yes with him. 

If it's a mostly weapons purchasing package, meaning defense manufacturers are putting people to work, as opposed to cash transfusions or pulling stuff out of storage, you may be able to talk enough GOP members in the house into supporting something with the Dems that McCarthy will put it on the floor. 

[The Dog 43807]

 

[The Dog 43807]

33 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

If it's a mostly weapons purchasing package, meaning defense manufacturers are putting people to work, as opposed to cash transfusions or pulling stuff out of storage, you may be able to talk enough GOP members in the house into supporting something with the Dems that McCarthy will put it on the floor. 

I've always figured good old fashioned pork barrel politics was going to bring bipartisanship on this matter. 

Abrams, HIMARS, and Bradleys are all produced in Republican districts. 

 

[statsman 5425]

Judging by the huge increase in posting by Rusbots on the WSJ story comments section (they all have very Anglo Saxon sounding names, yet a little wonky grammar), Russia isn’t happy. 

[Bateshorn 9905]

5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I've always figured good old fashioned pork barrel politics was going to bring bipartisanship on this matter. 

Abrams, HIMARS, and Bradleys are all produced in Republican districts. 

 

Yeah, Jim Banks is running for Senate in Indiana, is a hard core GOP member, and I'm sure will be quick to note the opportunities available in Lima from a potential Tank deal. 

[The Dog 43807]

 

[JesusSweatDuck 17780]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

 

[Chad Fuck 17566]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

It's a start.  I'll take it.

[The Dog 43807]

 

[Viper 12030]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://snyder.substack.com/p/why-the-world-needs-ukrainian-victory?r=50j1k&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Moscow feeling threatened

 

Russia better be careful with this. Men can protest and blow stuff up all they want, but when the wives and mothers start marching, that's when it kicks into high gear

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women's_March_on_Versailles

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/08/womens-protest-sparked-russian-revolution-international-womens-day

[Sbbruin 21737]

52 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Welcome to the party, Fritz.

[Dahobbs 17447]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

If we're giving them M1A2s, those T62s aren't going to see them until they are being fired upon. 

[Captainant 27464]

 

 

[Brisketexan 104628]

23 minutes ago, Captainant said:

 

 

Counterpoint: schoolteachers were taking out Russian tanks with javelins they trained on a few days before, they have taken out Russian drones with jars of pickles, and they're building home-grown drones and missiles.

Ukraine has got some serious-ass can-do shit going on.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ukraine has got some serious-ass can-do shit going on.

They better, Russia appears to want to concentrate some people in camps.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

I think Europe is realizing that defeating Russia in Ukraine will do more to increase European stability/peace than anything else.  The Dutch want to send more, and are putting their money where their mouth is.

Switzerland and it’s defense industries maybe about to get in on the action

 

[Gatorubet 30113]

25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ukraine has got some serious-ass can-do shit going on.

[The Dog 43807]

Hertling saying what I've been thinking - the Leopards will get there quickly while the Abrams are months down the road.

 

[Gatorubet 30113]

The bad news?

Russia knows the tanks are coming and will move up the time table for the latest grand invasion in order not to face them. 

The good news? 

The logistical cluster fuck entity of not-ready mobiks using out of date weapons called Russia knows the tanks are coming, and will move up the time table for the latest grand invasion in order not to face them…..and in the process get slaughtered while waiting for enough ammo, gas and food to arrive.

 

[Post Oak 20187]

Alright tankers explain this to me like I'm a dumbass. All I've seen are them getting blown apart and towed by Ukrainians. I know the Russian army has a myriad of problems and aren't a good example to learn anything useful from.

So why will tanks be so important to Ukraine? Is it just busting through lines? How will they use them? Are they a game changer? How so?

Many thanks 

[MissingInAction 24824]

Western tanks will be virtually unstoppable vs the Russian shit show.

 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

17 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

The bad news?

Russia knows the tanks are coming and will move up the time table for the latest grand invasion in order not to face them. 

17 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

The good news? 

The logistical cluster fuck entity of not-ready mobiks using out of date weapons called Russia knows the tanks are coming, and will move up the time table for the latest grand invasion in order not to face them…..and in the process get slaughtered while waiting for enough ammo, gas and food to arrive.

who knew that Scooby Doo vans were not good troop or ammo transports?

[atomheartbevo 89449]

8 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Alright tankers explain this to me like I'm a dumbass. All I've seen are them getting blown apart and towed by Ukrainians. I know the Russian army has a myriad of problems and aren't a good example to learn anything useful from.

So why will tanks be so important to Ukraine? Is it just busting through lines? How will they use them? Are they a game changer? How so?

Many thanks 

Not a tanker, but here’s a good article about why Russia pissed their tank advantages away, and why Ukraine has done well.  Part of it is actual combined arms warfare, something the West is excellent at, including Ukraine after it received such training, while Russia is stunningly inept at it

https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/the-tank-is-not-obsolete-and-other-observations-about-the-future-of-combat/

[atomheartbevo 89449]

Combine this with European, South Korean, and Australian companies ramping up their production. Czech Republic alone has one company putting out around a hundred thousand a year, and ramping that up to 150,000.

 

[InkaUtexas 25518]

I love this! 

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia is stunningly inept at it

Russian forces made minimal attempts at executing a coherent combined-arms operation, which would have required careful coordination and planning between air, ground, and naval forces. Russian ground units simply drove toward cities, unprepared for a fight. In addition, Russian forces were given insufficient time to prepare for such a complex operation. This decision was likely made at the political level. 

[Pods 7530]

Well, it's a few days since the Rammstein conference concluded, but it looks like the only acceptable outcome has been reached. 

Du

Du hast

Du hast tanks

[InkaUtexas 25518]

Damn. All I can say is damn. 

Saw wounded brits singing God Save the Queen, but never in a speedboat. 

 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

Childish as fuck.  Some little fuck had to burn a Koran in Sweden and publicize it, and of course Erdogan is going to refuse Sweden ‘s application.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/finland-floats-solo-nato-entry-after-erdogan-rejects-sweden/ar-AA16G8qj

Quote

Turkey and Hungary are the only two of NATO’s 30 members who have yet to ratify the applications, and on Monday, Erdogan ruled out supporting Sweden’s bid after a far-right activist burned Islam’s holy book in Stockholm. In response to his comments, US officials reiterated their support for NATO’s expansion.

Erdogan’s comments injected new levels of doubt about Sweden’s prospects of joining the alliance, since the Turkish leader didn’t make clear whether he’s willing to change his stance. With an election slated for May, Erdogan is aiming to burnish his support from religious conservatives.

Finland may join separately, and then Sweden would have defense treaties signed with Finland, US, UK, Norway, etc. until this shit gets sorted.

Quote

The path floated by Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, if it becomes more serious, would mark a significant shift in Finnish policy since the Nordic nations jointly applied to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in May. Faced with continued objections from Turkey — mostly to what it sees as inadequate crackdown on Kurds in Sweden — the two Nordic countries had up to now insisted their applications be considered together.

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

 

[InkaUtexas 25518]

We are wondering the same. 

 

[InkaUtexas 25518]

This is well done! Let them roam! 

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Hertling thread on tanks, emphasis on logistics per usual

 

[SL Xpress 7505]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Childish as fuck.  Some little fuck had to burn a Koran in Sweden and publicize it, and of course Erdogan is going to refuse Sweden ‘s application.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/finland-floats-solo-nato-entry-after-erdogan-rejects-sweden/ar-AA16G8qj

Finland may join separately, and then Sweden would have defense treaties signed with Finland, US, UK, Norway, etc. until this shit gets sorted.

 

Well, Europe only has itself to blame. Back when Erdogan was trying to get into the EU the leaders there said Turkey has too many coups. You have to reform the military so it no longer interferes in domestic politics. Erdogan was only too happy to do so, purging the Turkish military of virtually all senior officers, and thus cleaving the military's historic responsibility as handed to it by Ataturk to ensure the government remains secular. Now they have a ruler for life, and the secular forces in Turkey have been on the defensive ever since. 

To me it's similar to Carter's approach with the Shah of Iran, the entire Arab Spring fiasco (have you seen what's happening in Libya these days?), and of course most spectacularly, installing a democratic government of all things in Iraq and Afghanistan. To "spread democracy." Unintended consequences. Now we've got Erdogan gumming up the works in all kinds of ways as his number one foreign policy objective is to restore the Ottoman Caliphate to whatever extent he can. Which is limited, for sure, but it's far more important to him to be seen as the most important leader in the Muslim world than to increase his prestige in the West. 

We're just fortunate it didn't work in Egypt.  

[Gengs1 2583]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Childish as fuck.  Some little fuck had to burn a Koran in Sweden and publicize it, and of course Erdogan is going to refuse Sweden ‘s application.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/finland-floats-solo-nato-entry-after-erdogan-rejects-sweden/ar-AA16G8qj

Finland may join separately, and then Sweden would have defense treaties signed with Finland, US, UK, Norway, etc. until this shit gets sorted.

 

He will bend the knee and allow them into nato. With how the nations are working together to supply Ukraine will show him how much they mean business. They will collectively put pressure on him to do what needs to be done. Once the gang decides to isolate turkey with various economic policies, he will have no choice. 

19 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Hertling thread on tanks, emphasis on logistics per usual

 

Yes is going to be hard and Ukraine will do a amazing job making it happen. They will crawl, walk, run and then sprint for this shit

[Captainant 27464]

54 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Well, Europe only has itself to blame. Back when Erdogan was trying to get into the EU the leaders there said Turkey has too many coups. You have to reform the military so it no longer interferes in domestic politics. Erdogan was only too happy to do so, purging the Turkish military of virtually all senior officers, and thus cleaving the military's historic responsibility as handed to it by Ataturk to ensure the government remains secular. Now they have a ruler for life, and the secular forces in Turkey have been on the defensive ever since. 

To me it's similar to Carter's approach with the Shah of Iran, the entire Arab Spring fiasco (have you seen what's happening in Libya these days?), and of course most spectacularly, installing a democratic government of all things in Iraq and Afghanistan. To "spread democracy." Unintended consequences. Now we've got Erdogan gumming up the works in all kinds of ways as his number one foreign policy objective is to restore the Ottoman Caliphate to whatever extent he can. Which is limited, for sure, but it's far more important to him to be seen as the most important leader in the Muslim world than to increase his prestige in the West. 

We're just fortunate it didn't work in Egypt.  

say what you will, but it's a damn good thing that we sent those F14's to Iran during the 70's so that Maverick and Rooster could make it home safe

[SimonBolivar 10931]

Grad school just started up again for me and this sounds familiar

 

Quote

 

Patrick Gordon, who served in the tsar’s army for almost four decades, agreed. The Russians, he wrote, were ‘morose, avaricious, niggard, deceitful, false; insolent and tirrannous, where they have command; and, being under command, submissive and even slavish, sloven and base, and yet overweening and valuing themselves above all other nations’.

Parker, Geoffrey. Global Crisis : War, Climate and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century, Yale University Press, 2012. ProQuest Ebook Central, 

 

 

[The Dog 43807]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

With an election slated for May, Erdogan is aiming to burnish his support from religious conservatives.

That's all this is really about. It's irritating but eventually Sweden will be in NATO.

Keep in mind that the ruling coalition in Sweden was formed thanks to a deciding vote by Amineh Kakbaveh - a Kurdish Swede who helped form the ruling coalition.

Quote

After the 2018 Swedish general election, the Swedish Social Democratic Party coalition had only one member more than the oppositions, so when Kakabaveh became party-less, the government lost their majority. In the 2021 Swedish government crisis, Kakabaveh did not want to support the government. Only after agreeing to some political demands from Kakabaveh concerning support of Kurds and criticism of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's treatment of Kurds, the government headed by Magdalena Andersson could be elected.[10] After the Swedish application to NATO, of which Turkey is a member, Turkey demanded that Kakabaveh be extradited due to her support of Kurdish organisations.[11]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amineh_Kakabaveh

How much of this is a red herring for internal politics is up for debate. But even the Biden administration has admitted that this is a legitimate issue that needs to be resolved (likely with huge bribes after the May elections IMHO).

[TKthunder2 4981]

2 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

He will bend the knee and allow them into nato. With how the nations are working together to supply Ukraine will show him how much they mean business. They will collectively put pressure on him to do what needs to be done. Once the gang decides to isolate turkey with various economic policies, he will have no choice.

Seems like a lot of people are glossing over this little tidbit.

”With an election slated for May, Erdogan is aiming to burnish his support from religious conservatives.”

I would bet after the May election they “negotiate” and they all are singing Kumbaya by the Annual NATO Labor Day cookout. 

[Pods 7530]

5 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Seems like a lot of people are glossing over this little tidbit.

”With an election slated for May, Erdogan is aiming to burnish his support from religious conservatives.”

I would bet after the May election they “negotiate” and they all are singing Kumbaya by the Annual NATO Labor Day cookout. 

Erdogan is a de facto dictator. There is zero chance he'll be threatened in the election. It's rigged. This is about appearing "strong" to the rest of the Muslim world, so he can set up his caliphate, and getting the west to look the other way while he oppresses and murders the Kurds. 

He's not dealing in good faith. Every time Sweden thinks they have a deal, Erdogan changes the terms and extorts them some more. This is a guy that ordered his bodyguards to attack US citizens on US soil when they had the audacity to protest him.

The bigger question is why de facto dictators like Erdogan and Orban are allowed to block near unanimous NATO and EU decisions made by the democracies that actually drive both alliances. 

[TKthunder2 4981]

6 minutes ago, Pods said:

Erdogan is a de facto dictator. There is zero chance he'll be threatened in the election. It's rigged. This is about appearing "strong" to the rest of the Muslim world, so he can set up his caliphate, and getting the west to look the other way while he oppresses and murders the Kurds. 

He's not dealing in good faith. Every time Sweden thinks they have a deal, Erdogan changes the terms and extorts them some more. This is a guy that ordered his bodyguards to attack US citizens on US soil when they had the audacity to protest him.

The bigger question is why de facto dictators like Erdogan and Orban are allowed to block near unanimous NATO and EU decisions made by the democracies that actually drive both alliances. 

Everything you said is true, but he’s not a true dictator or else elections (even rigged ones) wouldn’t happen.

If he appears to bend to the West and the religious/conservatives will not be happy and the “election” would give them an opportunity do express that unhappiness. The liberal/progressives (if you can even call them that) could also join the protest (because why not take advantage) and that is often the prefect precursor for lightning the fuse on a regime change.

Fake dictators stay in power by giving the illusion of choice but that illusion can be dangerous…which is why these “elections” are still politically important in regards to the NATO elevations.

[SL Xpress 7505]

13 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Everything you said is true, but he’s not a true dictator or else elections (even rigged ones) wouldn’t happen.

If he appears to bend to the West and the religious/conservatives will not be happy and the “election” would give them an opportunity do express that unhappiness. The liberal/progressives (if you can even call them that) could also join the protest (because why not take advantage) and that is often the prefect precursor for lightning the fuse on a regime change.

Fake dictators stay in power by giving the illusion of choice but that illusion can be dangerous…which is why these “elections” are still politically important in regards to the NATO elevations.

You and I have very different conceptions of what is or isn’t a true dictatorship. History is replete with dictators who put on a show of elections as a way of legitimizing their reign in various ways. I’d say the vast majority of them in the last 100 years or so. 

If there’s no real chance of a peaceful transition of power and one person is ultimately responsible for the whole kit and caboodle, it’s a dictatorship. The reason why there’s a war in Ukraine right now is because the Ukrainian people came out in massive protests for months on end - twice! about a decade apart - when Yanukovych tried the same thing there. 

That said, Erdogan’s base is within the Muslim community. He can survive protests - and has, massive ones - from the secular part of population. He will have a much tougher time if the Muslims feel like he is betraying them and their faith. 

I’m not as convinced that Sweden’s path to NATO is as smooth as massive bribes after the May election. Erdogan sees he and his country’s future firmly ensconced as a leader of the Islamic world, not western. Tūrkiye is another lost opportunity for the west to bring a majority Islam country into the Western fold, and has been since Erdogan’s purges of the military and the subsequent failed coup a few years later from an emasculated secular officer corp. 

It’s a bummer seeing Ataturk’s dream die. 

[InkaUtexas 25518]

They were never going to join under this leadership. Islamic nations do want to "join" the west, they want to be equal to the west. 

 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

49 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I’m not as convinced that Sweden’s path to NATO is as smooth as massive bribes after the May election. Erdogan sees he and his country’s future firmly ensconced as a leader of the Islamic world, not western. Tūrkiye is another lost opportunity for the west to bring a majority Islam country into the Western fold, and has been since Erdogan’s purges of the military and the subsequent failed coup a few years later from an emasculated secular officer corp. 

NATO/Europe being strengthened and more importantly, helping Ukraine defeat Russia, would help Turkey in their longtime goals.  Russia being knocked several rungs down the ladder economically and militarily should help reduce their support of Syria, and could even knock loose some of the bordering areas/republics, and reduce Russia’s influence across the Middle East, Caspian Sea, etc.

A united Europe is not ideal for Turkey, but that’s a long term problem.  Short term, they need Russia knocked down hard, and Ukraine could do it.

[956 Worldwide 34444]

We give people like Erdogan, Orban (and earlier Putin) far too much credit and ascribe to them levels of strategic thought that they simply do not engage in. Erdogan is at the core a very simple and transactional person: he will accept Sweden and Finland the moment keeping them out is more costly to his personal ambitions than letting them in would be. 
 

(China is in a different category as far as strategic thought, despite Xi’s increasing control of all structures the CCP is an institution capable of doing its own thinking, self-preservation,  and long-range planning, like some European monarchies were. The AKP, Fidesz, and United Russia do not function at that scale and institutions like the military and secret services that could function that way have been defanged and subordinated to a greater degree and never had the broad mandate of the Party). 
 

We can wring our hands about why NATO and the EU can’t just take votes or kick out problem children but the fact is that international organizations that are so completely central to their member states’ core security and strategic needs (not even interests) could never have been formed and function except by the principal of consensus.  The better question is how they could have stopped people like Orban earlier.