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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Jameslaw121

Jameslaw121 4,445

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This may have already been answered, but a few pages ago, someone asked how many tanks the UKA needed. According to the Economist podcast I was listening to earlier. around 300

Person also said, that Germany allowing others to ship tanks to the UKA is significant because there are between 2,000-3,000 leopards in Europe right now

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,448

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

My co-worker is flipping out that WW3 has started with the tanks rolling in and saying he's hearing reports of unusual military planes flying all over Austin.  I haven't heard shit.  Is just tin-foil hatting?

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

There were some AF jets over San Marcos earlier. It happens sometimes. 

49 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 A flight of F-18s went over the Capitol about a half-hour ago.  Standard finger-four with #3 missing, which implies to me that it was probably doing a missing-man formation over the Texas State Cemetery.

Yeah, saw the missing man formation.  Insanely curious who it was for, because that's not a normal thing to do for a burial, plus people who are buried in the State Cemetery are usually kind of a big deal.

Earlier in the week, there were some AF cargo jets flying together out of Bergstrom, but it's not that uncommon.  We have Camp Mabry, which is the HQ for Texas National Guard/Reserve, as well as Camp Swift in Bastrop, which is the primary staging area for stuff out of Central Texas, and they could have even been making a refueling stop. They could have been doing some airborne training - we do have a detachment or two from the 19th Special Force Group in the Texas National Guard.

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Scheiss Meister

Scheiss Meister 8,399

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

The single most important factor in winning an armor engagement is whether you are the attacking force or the defending force.   If you are the defending force, you can pick your location. If you are a tank you find a hull down position in some depression where you can fire and be relatively protected. Same goes for the Bradleys, except they are so much smaller they can hide in the forest or a stand of trees so long as there is a clear path for the tow missile to reach its target. 
Going back to World War II tank battles in Europe, when German panzers we’re on the attack in unknown territory in France and later in the Ardennes, many of them got brewed up by Sherman and 76 mm tank destroyers. Sure their cannons were less effective than the Germans. But the Germans didn’t know where we were and got the shit beat out of them by Sherman‘s hitting them from a very close distance in the front, or hitting them in the side and rear, where they were more vulnerable.
Similarly, when the allies were advancing the entrenched Germans blew up lots of Shermans from really good, well distance sighted positions. 
It has been a while (if ever with leopards) since we had leopard or Abrams vs. T 72, 80 90, etc. Russian tanks, and certainly the armor characteristics are really important too.  Can a tank survive a first or second hit?    Despite the Shermans doing a yeoman like effort versus better armored and cannoned German tanks, a first hit from a German 88 would destroy a Sherman - and from a rather distant location as well.    
Far better to let the Russians advance and attack and Ukraine defend than the other way around.   Ukraine needs to wreck a shit ton of Russian stuff defending the invasion, and then immediately go into a counter attack while the other side is disorganized and dispirited and lacking supplies. 
A well trained crew is just as important as a good Cannon and good armor. I doubt the new Russian tankers will even be allowed to fire that much practice ammo.  If we train them right, advantage Ukraine.
I wish I was rich enough to find an old Sherman tank like the one my father used to blow up German tanks in the Bulge and the Rhineland. If we had some of those in a shed we could put some TOWs on it and go hunting for T 72s and BMP-3s.
28067E2F-8145-49AF-9D32-6725DDF44E92.thumb.jpeg.56b1cc1a1d3bf879f8bb052d220c5861.jpeg
 

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30,110

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Turkish intervention in Syria[edit]

Turkey operates 354 Leopard 2A4 tanks. Initially using other tank types including upgraded M60s, in December 2016 Turkey deployed a number of Leopard 2A4s to the Syrian Civil War against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) as part of Operation Euphrates Shield.[citation needed] Initially, three of the Turkish Leopard 2A4s operating in Syria were destroyed or damaged by ISIS using anti-tank missile systems (possibly Fagot or Konkurs anti-tank guided missiles obtained from Syrian or Iraqi Army captured stocks).[citation needed] In mid-December 2016, two 2A4 tanks were captured by ISIS near al-Bab city in Syria during Euphrates Shield operations. Amaq News Agency posted video of vehicles claimed to be captured Leopard 2A4s.[121]

By late December 2016, ISIS had captured or incapacitated 10 Leopard 2A4s. These were damaged by anti-tank weapons, IEDs, or other unknown causes.[122][123] Additional ISIS propaganda images and video depicting several completely destroyed Leopards, some with their turrets blown off, were published in January 2017.[124] Tanks which suffered the worst damage may have been destroyed by air strikes in order to prevent capture but sources generally state that the damage was caused solely with anti-tank missiles or car bombs driven by a suicide bomber.[125][126]

In January 2017, the German newspaper Die Welt reported that ISIL fighters used 9M133 Kornet anti-tank missiles to destroy six Leopard 2 tanks used by the Turkish military in Syria.[127]

From Wiki.   So not sure validity, as I can't read German.   But Leopards - hell any tank - will have issues with good anti-tank missiles.   Which is why the use of MBTs has to be in a combined arms environment with enough infantry accompanying them and artillery and air engaged to prevent the unopposed use of anti-tank missiles from enemy troops.   When you do not, then you have a situation like Russia found out last February (and I assume Turkey found out in Syria).   Pissed off school teachers or jihadists with an anti-tank missile can fuck up opposing armor.  For all of my enthusiasm at the tanks being sent over, if Ukraine sends its tanks out alone to fight Russian troops who have anti-tank rockets there will be losses.   As we have seen, letting infantry with Javelins or man-pads (or drones) get too close to your tank is usually the precursor to a bad day.     The fact that the tanks belong to the good guys won't change this.   Assuming that we have the same air superiority situation as now (meaning neither Russia nor Ukraine control the sky), training and tactics will be our edge.  Plus in the rare tank v tank battle the Leopards should have better sighting and target acquiring tech than Ivan, so we can hit the T-90s before they see us.  Assuming that they are not sending T-62a against Leopards.

TL;DR version -  None of this shit is invincible in an age of really good anti-tank missiles.     I doubt we will see some kind of tank-on-tank Kursk type battle again.  

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30,110

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You know they are now scared shitless. That asshole is whining about NATO having 3 1/2 times more stuff than they have - and they really need to use tactical nuclear weapons. The unsaid premise here is that they know they can’t win a conventional war, so they whine about how unfair it is that all those other countries are helping Ukraine.

Ha ha ha it’s coming Ivan.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17,447

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

From Wiki.   So not sure validity, as I can't read German.   But Leopards - hell any tank - will have issues with good anti-tank missiles.   Which is why the use of MBTs has to be in a combined arms environment with enough infantry accompanying them and artillery and air engaged to prevent the unopposed use of anti-tank missiles from enemy troops.   When you do not, then you have a situation like Russia found out last February (and I assume Turkey found out in Syria).   Pissed off school teachers or jihadists with an anti-tank missile can fuck up opposing armor.  For all of my enthusiasm at the tanks being sent over, if Ukraine sends its tanks out alone to fight Russian troops who have anti-tank rockets there will be losses.   As we have seen, letting infantry with Javelins or man-pads (or drones) get too close to your tank is usually the precursor to a bad day.     The fact that the tanks belong to the good guys won't change this.   Assuming that we have the same air superiority situation as now (meaning neither Russia nor Ukraine control the sky), training and tactics will be our edge.  Plus in the rare tank v tank battle the Leopards should have better sighting and target acquiring tech than Ivan, so we can hit the T-90s before they see us.  Assuming that they are not sending T-62a against Leopards.

TL;DR version -  None of this shit is invincible in an age of really good anti-tank missiles.     I doubt we will see some kind of tank-on-tank Kursk type battle again.  

Yup, any tank used incorrectly will be vulnerable. Take a look at Iraq's Abrams loses when fighting ISIL. It lost ~100 out of the 140 we originally provided and had to get replacements. You'll see the same thing with Saudi Abram's loses. Pretty much all of these occurred because of poor tactics and training. The Saudi example is actually even worse because it was using relatively top of the line M1A2s (sans DU ammo and armor and a few other toys) as opposed to the older M1A1s used by Iraq. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15,492

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

From Wiki.   So not sure validity, as I can't read German.   But Leopards - hell any tank - will have issues with good anti-tank missiles.   Which is why the use of MBTs has to be in a combined arms environment with enough infantry accompanying them and artillery and air engaged to prevent the unopposed use of anti-tank missiles from enemy troops.   When you do not, then you have a situation like Russia found out last February (and I assume Turkey found out in Syria).   Pissed off school teachers or jihadists with an anti-tank missile can fuck up opposing armor.  For all of my enthusiasm at the tanks being sent over, if Ukraine sends its tanks out alone to fight Russian troops who have anti-tank rockets there will be losses.   As we have seen, letting infantry with Javelins or man-pads (or drones) get too close to your tank is usually the precursor to a bad day.     The fact that the tanks belong to the good guys won't change this.   Assuming that we have the same air superiority situation as now (meaning neither Russia nor Ukraine control the sky), training and tactics will be our edge.  Plus in the rare tank v tank battle the Leopards should have better sighting and target acquiring tech than Ivan, so we can hit the T-90s before they see us.  Assuming that they are not sending T-62a against Leopards.

TL;DR version -  None of this shit is invincible in an age of really good anti-tank missiles.     I doubt we will see some kind of tank-on-tank Kursk type battle again.  

Kursk?  Bitch--that's a quarter-century in the future when they're fighting right now with World War I tactics.

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statsman

statsman 5,425

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27 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

I get the logic of advising Ukraine to not get hung up on defending territory, and to focus on strategy. That’s a hard sell, though, when the territory you’re strategically vacating is occupied by your countrymen and and the invaders are as awful as the Russians. 

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668

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19 minutes ago, statsman said:

I get the logic of advising Ukraine to not get hung up on defending territory, and to focus on strategy. That’s a hard sell, though, when the territory you’re strategically vacating is occupied by your countrymen and and the invaders are as awful as the Russians. 

Yeah.  Sentencing a bunch of Ukrainians to a bad fate.  It is also going to be hard to retake territory once it is reinforced.  

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19,449

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When it comes to German tanks, I am reminded of an old ancestor.  Field Marshal Rommel via the great David Mamet.......

"We must never forget that we are German.  And as Germans, we must dream.  And when we dream, we must dream of armor."  

Here comes the battery hellscape Russia only got a taste of 80 years ago.  Only this time, the whole world is going to laugh and laugh and laugh.  I honestly feel bad about what's going to happen next...

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104,625

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When it comes to German tanks, I am reminded of an old ancestor.  Field Marshal Rommel via the great David Mamet.......
"We must never forget that we are German.  And as Germans, we must dream.  And when we dream, we must dream of armor."  
Here comes the battery hellscape Russia only got a taste of 80 years ago.  Only this time, the whole world is going to laugh and laugh and laugh.  I honestly feel bad about what's going to happen next...

In what happens next, will Russian troops die?

Then I feel the opposite of bad. May their corpses cover every inch of ground, fertilizing next years crops. The Russians will only understand their folly and loss when enough of them are dead. And “enough” is more than any civilized human wants to imagine.
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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30,110

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If Putin quits or is defeated, then he is a dead man. I have finally come to understand the Russian mindset. It is in their DNA to be a bully and to lie about being a bully. However weird it seems that a country without bathrooms and toilet paper believes they are the world’s most superior culture and civilization, they do actually think that.   While we have a hard time in the west understanding the odd combination of a severe victim mentality somehow melded with the belief that you’re superior to everyone in the world - that is who they are.

The fact that Russian Talking Heads are telling the people that it is a holy war, and that losing the holy war in Ukraine means to the destruction of Russia and the Russian people means that Putin has painted himself into a corner and has no way of extracting himself.  If Russia has to withdraw, or if Russia gets their shit blown up and there are no longer living or un-captured  Russian troops in the special operations territories annexed by Russia, their collective psyche simply will be unable to accept that.  In typical Russian fashion they will search for the scapegoat responsible for this. As Putin has so thoroughly intertwined himself with the reasons for and the success of this war, it cannot end in a defeat and Putin remain alive.

I hope he dies soon as I’m not so sure he won’t be so crazy as to use tactical nuclear weapons once he realizes all is lost. If it’s true that he is almost dead from cancer then he won’t give a shit about the consequences. His life is already over. That is what I’m worried about….Ukraine ultimate success while he still lives.

I would like to see this thing drawn out as long as it takes for Putin to die, as Russia could then put the blame on Putin and mentally accept some form of humiliating defeat in Ukraine that is not Russia’s fault, but Putin’s.   I wonder how much US intelligence knows about Putin’s health and how long he will be alive.    

And I get that this is tinfoil hat time, but apparently I overserved myself in my informal cocktail hour.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104,625

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If Putin quits or is defeated, then he is a dead man. I have finally come to understand the Russian mindset. It is in their DNA to be a bully and to lie about being a bully. However weird it seems that a country without bathrooms and toilet paper believes they are the world’s most superior culture and civilization, they do actually think that.   While we have a hard time in the west understanding the odd combination of a severe victim mentality somehow melded with the belief that you’re superior to everyone in the world - that is who they are.



So…..there’s this university in College Station that I need to tell you about….

Seriously, the mentality Venn diagram here is just a single circle. It’s horrifying.
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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30,110

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 


So…..there’s this university in College Station that I need to tell you about….

Seriously, the mentality Venn diagram here is just a single circle. It’s horrifying.

 

Wait!   So you’re saying in Moscow there is a Hall of NATO Defeating Champions with an empty trophy case???

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,448

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42 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

The fact that Russian Talking Heads are telling the people that it is a holy war, and that losing the holy war in Ukraine means to the destruction of Russia and the Russian people means that Putin has painted himself into a corner and has no way of extracting himself.  If Russia has to withdraw, or if Russia gets their shit blown up and there are no longer living or un-captured  Russian troops in the special operations territories annexed by Russia, their collective psyche simply will be unable to accept that.  In typical Russian fashion they will search for the scapegoat responsible for this. As Putin has so thoroughly intertwined himself with the reasons for and the success of this war, it cannot end in a defeat and Putin remain alive.

I agree with a lot of this, and I fully embraced this mindset early on back in March or April, but I've started changing my mind..

We are heading into the one year anniversary, and Putin is still in power, and Russians either don't care that it's lasted 320+ days past the 3-day Special Military Operation, or they are too afraid of being arrested for speaking out.

Well over 700,000 people, mostly men who didn't want to be conscripted, but plenty of women who were tired of it, have fled Russia.  These are arguably people who didn't support Putin and proved it by putting their money where their mouth is and leaving, and arguably these are some of the very people who were most likely to present a resistance to the war.  Putin letting them leave Russia, while it's really fucking awful for their demographic problems since so many of them were under the age of 30-40 and had the financial means to flee, turns out to be a brilliant move, since it reduces the pressure on him.

I am almost fully in the camp that thinks Putin could declare that he's denazified Ukraine by killing X amount of Nazis, that he's rescued the pro-Russians, and then pull out.  He has complete control over the media, who says the most batshit of things, yet nothing happens in the streets as a result.  Most Russians are either bored, tired, or afraid of speaking out.

I believe he can pull out, spin it however he wants to, and get away with it.  What the oligarchs do, who is to say, but he controls Russia enough that he can pull it off.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30,110

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7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I agree with a lot of this, and I fully embraced this mindset early on back in March or April, but I've started changing my mind..

We are heading into the one year anniversary, and Putin is still in power, and Russians either don't care that it's lasted 320+ days past the 3-day Special Military Operation, or they are too afraid of being arrested for speaking out.

Well over 700,000 people, mostly men who didn't want to be conscripted, but plenty of women who were tired of it, have fled Russia.  These are arguably people who didn't support Putin and proved it by putting their money where their mouth is and leaving, and arguably these are some of the very people who were most likely to present a resistance to the war.  Putin letting them leave Russia, while it's really fucking awful for their demographic problems since so many of them were under the age of 30-40 and had the financial means to flee, turns out to be a brilliant move, since it reduces the pressure on him.

I am almost fully in the camp that thinks Putin could declare that he's denazified Ukraine by killing X amount of Nazis, that he's rescued the pro-Russians, and then pull out.  He has complete control over the media, who says the most batshit of things, yet nothing happens in the streets as a result.  Most Russians are either bored, tired, or afraid of speaking out.

I believe he can pull out, spin it however he wants to, and get away with it.  What the oligarchs do, who is to say, but he controls Russia enough that he can pull it off.

I certainly do not disagree with the amount of control he seems to assert over every aspect of Russia and Russian info/media dissemination.   For me the missing piece is ‘what do the Russian people know?’  If they do not yet know that almost 200,000 men are dead or wounded in the grinder -then that is one thing. Once they figure that out, assuming they do not know now, maybe that changes things. 

They are predisposed to except all kinds of shit that a western populace would not take. I still believe that somewhere in there is a kind of social contract between the czar and his people.  Putin was allowed to be Putin as long as there was a level of security in the country and as long as enough people were able to obtain jobs, housing and enough food to get by.    I also join neon Moon’s wondering about shit getting real in a hurry due to sanctions kicking in hard and soon. 

Not only do Russians not care what happens to other countries or people, they appear not to give a shit what happens to other Russians.  Like all people, they care about their family and their friends. Back to the deaths and disabled: if the breadwinners and sons who were supposed to support them are dead - or sitting drunk on the couch with an amputated leg and no job or food -  maybe Putin’s control has limits.  We will see.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,448

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4 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I certainly do not disagree with the amount of control he seems to assert over every aspect of Russia and Russian info/media dissemination.   For me the missing piece is ‘what do the Russian people know?’  

For me it would be "how many actually care?"

4 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

If they do not yet know that almost 200,000 men are dead or wounded in the grinder -then that is one thing. Once they figure that out, assuming they do not know now, maybe that changes things. 

They have to know something.  We are 11 months in to a 3-day Special Military Operation.  Every single fucking night, the official state TV channel has talking heads raging about the West and the flow of weapons into Ukraine, and at times they are bitching about losses and equipment and why won't the Ukrainians die.  They may not talk about the numbers of losses, but if you pay attention to the official state TV channels, it's clear that this operation has gone off the rails, and they do not hide it at all.  

Outside of maybe Moscow and St. Petersburg, there also isn't an area of Russia that hasn't seen a significant number of public funerals, and the Russians love their funerals - they get mentioned by the local officials, they have parades, they decorate the hell out of the gravesite. Yeah, there maybe plenty of Russian boys whose corpses were incinerated by their fellow soldiers, but it's clear that plenty made it back for a funeral.

And this account is tracking just officers, and they base their info on the official mentions by Russian officials, state media, cemetery notices, church notices, etc.  This is an insane amount of officers that have been killed.  You'd think they'd be covering this stuff up, but they don't really do so.

Fm0anMGX0AEEfR3?format=png&name=large

4 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I still believe that somewhere in there is a kind of social contract between the czar and his people.  Putin was allowed to be Putin as long as there was a level of security in the country and as long as enough people were able to obtain jobs, housing and enough food to get by.    I also join neon Moon’s wondering about shit getting real in a hurry due to sanctions kicking in hard and soon. 

This is one area that has to be watched.  The Russian people know their manufacturing interesting has gone to shit, whether it's a lack of airbags in their cars, or problems with aircraft.  And hell, again, Russian state TV has talking heads bitching every night about the sanctions and the West.  There have been banking problems with pensions, savings accounts, etc., as well as talk of having bank accounts confiscated by the state.

4 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Not only do Russians not care what happens to other countries or people, they appear not to give a shit what happens to other Russians.  Like all people, they care about their family and their friends. Back to the deaths and disabled: if the breadwinners and sons who were supposed to support them are dead - or sitting drunk on the couch with an amputated leg and no job or food -  maybe Putin’s control has limits.  We will see.

I don't know where this will end, but Putin has rid himself of threats at the leadership level, and he's rid himself of 700,000+ potential agitators (who fled Russia), and he's put legislation in place that allows people to be arrested and jailed just for holding up blank pieces of paper, and he's got talking heads on official state TV spewing out all kinds of hate for the West, and all kinds of gloom and doom and about nukes and attacking NATO.

I would love to know the breaking point.  Would be nice if the one year anniversary saw a bunch of agitators rise up in Russia.

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The Dog

The Dog 43,805

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:


In what happens next, will Russian troops die?

Then I feel the opposite of bad. May their corpses cover every inch of ground, fertilizing next years crops. The Russians will only understand their folly and loss when enough of them are dead. And “enough” is more than any civilized human wants to imagine.

image.thumb.png.b4563d31c4536da1eb01951c033fcaff.png

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27,436

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48 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

They could throw a couple hundred thousand more men to the meat grinder before anyone gives a shit in Russia. I think once the money runs out from no gas sales to Europe, then shit starts getting real. 

Do they even have 200k men left who are fit for military service?

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