Русский корабль - иди нахуй

Pescado_Rojo · January 30, 2023

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Someone in the comments was theorizing it’s an anti tank missile used anti personnel.

Scheiss Meister · January 30, 2023

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Someone in the comments was theorizing it’s an anti tank missile used anti personnel.

This. I was thinking RPG, but we've seen Javelins used that way, too.

Dahobbs · January 30, 2023

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

I've posted this guy's stuff (Perun) on this thread before. He's basically a civilian in Australia who started his youtube video making guides for a couple of video games: Dominion 5, which is an extremely complicated low poly fantasy based 4x game, and Phoenix Point, which is an X-Com type tactical strategy game. I've never watched a single video from him on either subject.

* * *

He is good about citing his sources, and it's clear he does a ton of research, so don't let his background in video games prejudice you towards him as much as it did me at first.

He has indicated previously that his job is providing defense procurement analysis in Australia, and on that basis he has refused to provide similar videos on Australia related topics. He isn't just a civilian that took this up randomly. This is his space, and it shows.

bolverk · January 30, 2023

Kinda NSFW video for that earworm with the Jewish space lazer.

Singer Le Tac is a singer/songwriter based in Sweden. He is originally known for his humoristic lyrics & music such as in his hit single Schmackeboom.

KYHorn · January 30, 2023

WSJ piece on The Covert Polish Repair Shop Patching Up Ukrainian Arms

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covert-polish-repair-shop-patching-up-ukrainian-arms-11674920742?mod=e2tw

Spoiler

The Covert Polish Repair Shop Patching Up Ukrainian Arms

Poland has set up a major repair operation aimed at returning damaged Ukrainian artillery and armor to the battlefield

Workers at a facility owned by the Polish Armaments Group have been fixing damaged materiel for Ukraine.

By Karolina Jeznach and Joe Parkinson

| Photographs by Maciek Nabrdalik for The Wall Street Journal

Jan. 28, 2023 10:45 am ET

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TEXT

Listen to article

Length(6 minutes)

WARSAW—In a sprawling factory complex surrounded by derelict buildings, hundreds of technicians are working around the clock on one of the biggest challenges of Ukraine’s war: repairing artillery and heavy armor and returning it to the front line.

Mechanics buzz around the football-field-sized workshop housing three AHS Krab guns, the air thick with the smell of metal dust and automotive grease. Two of the Krabs, which look like tanks but are self-propelled 155mm howitzer guns, are missing parts of their caterpillar tracks and are riddled with bullet holes and contorted metal.

Another Krab stands sparkling clean, ready to be ferried back into Ukraine along a route that has seen the biggest transfer of arms in Europe since World War II. Each weapon can take up to two months to repair by technicians who must pass layers of security checks before they are allowed onto the floor of the factory at a location The Wall Street Journal agreed not to disclose.

In addition to the repair work in Poland, the mechanics are in constant contact with technicians in Ukraine—many of whom were civilians before the war—teaching them over encrypted apps how to repair everything from tanks to missiles.

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“That one actually arrived here in the worst condition we have seen,” says engineer Mirosław Surowaniec, pointing to the revitalized Krab, one of 10 guns repaired in recent months. “The entire gun barrel was missing, the body badly damaged.”

At the factory complex, guns used by AHS Krabs lay next to combat vehicles. Foreman Sławomir Kapusta stood by a Krab and electricians worked on one of the howitzers.

The maintenance and repair of munitions is a major challenge in a war that is burning through arms at the fastest pace since Nazi Germany clashed with Soviet Russia on the same territory almost 80 years ago.

The scale of the previously unreported Polish armaments operation highlights the complexity of a maintenance challenge that is about to grow far larger. On Wednesday, the Biden administration announced plans to send 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, joining European allies who will send as many as 100 German-made Leopard 2 tanks.

Polish officials say they expect the Abramses will be repaired in Poland in the western city of Poznan, making the former Soviet satellite state the leading edge of a maintenance operation that stretches to the Czech Republic, Romania and Bulgaria. Poland will also likely play a critical role in repairing and maintaining the Leopards, due to its arms industry’s deep experience with the tank.

“It is safe to assume that Poland is a leader when it comes to servicing the equipment being used by the Ukrainians in the battlefield,” said Tomasz Smura, an expert on military technologies from Casimir Pulaski Foundation, an independent think tank in Warsaw.

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy thanked Poland on Friday for agreeing to transfer 74 tanks, which include 30 PT-91s and 14 Leopard 2s.

Technicians at the factory work in three shifts around the clock.

The challenge of maintaining Ukrainian munitions, including the tanks, comes as both Ukraine and Russia are planning offensives. Until now, Ukraine has largely used tanks such as the Soviet-era T-72, including those transferred by former Soviet satellite states including Poland.

A year of intense combat has exacted a heavy toll on tanks and artillery pieces whose cannon barrels have been warped by frequent fire. To remain operative, the materiel not only needs repair but also parts, plus Soviet-caliber ammunition that the West doesn’t produce in significant quantity.

In Russia, where the economy has been mobilized to support the war effort, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced in a September decree that he would create two new arms-repair hubs in the Moscow and Rostov regions, according to state media.

In Poland, the Krab Howitzers—first produced in 2017—are being serviced at a facility owned by the Polish Armaments Group, a state armaments company.

The workshop is monitored by armed officers from the Internal Security Agency, tasked to scout for potential sabotage operations that have hit weapons factories in other countries, including Bulgaria.

Every one of the roughly 400 assembly and production employees—and any visitor to the premises—must be a Polish citizen. The screening process for new employees, regardless of rank, can take several months.

The welding hall at the factory complex.

On the factory floor, technicians work in three shifts around the clock and are in regular contact with Ukrainians on the battlefield. They share information about best techniques for repairs over encrypted messages and a HelpDesk app that helps them to troubleshoot problems.

Polish mechanics said they once used the chat application to teach a Ukrainian postman-turned-soldier to repair a missile.

Mechanics sometimes find soldiers’ belongings inside the Krabs: a toothbrush, unfinished snacks or family photos. Dariusz Gawinek, a mechanic, said that repairing the hardware has made him more committed to helping the war effort.

“The Krabs arrive here with leaves, mud, sand, twigs stuck to the body and caterpillars. It is Ukrainian soil,” he said. “It hit me really hard the first time I went inside of one.”

Polish officials said the workshop could soon expand to repair and maintain equipment manufactured abroad, but declined to detail any specific plans.

Sławomir Kapusta, the workshop’s foreman, said he was moved last August when a vehicle arrived that had almost been destroyed. “One always wonders what happened to the crew under such circumstances,” he said.

Write to Joe Parkinson at joe.parkinson@wsj.com

KYHorn · January 30, 2023

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

53 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Someone in the comments was theorizing it’s an anti tank missile used anti personnel.

Looks similar to what was being fired in this video from yesterday. Others were suggesting it might be anti-tank as well:

Some of them could be this (I assume people can trip it as well):

Edited January 30, 2023 by KYHorn

Walser · January 30, 2023

Big thanks to SL and Miller and the rest educating us. This is my go-to for catching up. Which is nice because I got awhile sitting in an airport lounge because yet another flight of mine got cancelled.

Someone mentioned a while back that this is about good vs evil. We’re not aggie so we can appreciate nuance and that the world is varying shades of gray most of the time. But this is about the closest thing I can remember of obvious good vs evil. So I agree with this characterization.

I’m our local Uke cheerleader so I gotta watch myself so my friend group doesn’t get too irritated with my daily updates. I have also found, unfortunately, almost nobody cares about what is going on there.

I am surprised about the level of cooperation the West has reached in opposition of the Orcs. But we need to go all in. These half measures are going to get a lot more people killed. Let’s fucking get after it.

SL Xpress · January 30, 2023

10 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

He has indicated previously that his job is providing defense procurement analysis in Australia, and on that basis he has refused to provide similar videos on Australia related topics. He isn't just a civilian that took this up randomly. This is his space, and it shows.

I didn’t know that. You’re certainly right about that.

I have to admit to a lack of interest in Australian defense procurement analysis, so I’m glad he’s not going into it.

I will say Dominion 5 is a different sort of fantasy 4x. Not surprising a defense procurement analyst would be interested in it.

Thank you for the clarification. Sincerely. I’ve really enjoyed his PowerPoints regardless of his qualifications. They are extremely dense, but very layman friendly. He’s gifted in putting together the information in a compelling way that makes sense.

KYHorn · January 30, 2023

Haven't found the video yet, but it seems like it was in response to a question from a reporter, so it may not be a formal policy statement. Or the subtext could include "yet".

Schulz2.0 · January 30, 2023

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

KYHorn · January 30, 2023

3 hours ago, The Dog said:

Surely this will just get covered up in Russia

Answer: Yes, pretty much.

"The authors of the channel noted that this topic was prohibited to cover in the news in order not to "discredit the army", but the management of the channel decided not to leave this issue on its own."

https://myukraineis.org/news/in_melitopol_kadyrovites_raped_a_russian_propagandist_from_ntv_and_beat_up_a_cameraman-978.html

Google Lens translation of the complaint posted above:

Spoiler

TV COMPANY HTB
JSC "TELECOMPANY NTV" STR. ARGUNOVSKAYA, 5 MOSCOW, RUSSIA, 129075
•12-3-103/3 a 21.01 OT 202 3r.
to no.
FROM
202 r. Head of the department for interaction with the media of the RF IC, Major General of Justice
Petrenko S.L.
Dear Svetlana Lvovna!
NTV Television JSC asks you to assist in the investigation of the circumstances of the commission of criminal offenses (part 2 of article 131 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, part 2 of article 112 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation) against our film crew.
According to the editorial task, the correspondent Zenkova Olga Viktorovna and
operator-driver Epifanov Artyom Sergeevich were on a business trip in Zaporozhye
area to illuminate the progress of the NWO. On the evening of January 17, 2023, while in the hotel restaurant
"Vorontsovsky" (Melitopol), the film crew was attacked by a group of people in
camouflage uniforms, who introduced themselves as "fighters of the Akhmat battalion".
As a result of the attack, Epifanov Artyom Sergeevich received moderate injuries, as evidenced by the examination report at the Melitopol City Hospital No. 1. Violent acts of a sexual nature were also committed by a group of persons against correspondent Zenkova Olga Viktorovna.
Information about this incident was immediately reported to the military commandant's office and law enforcement agencies of the city of Melitopol.

Edited January 30, 2023 by KYHorn

Chad Fuck · January 30, 2023

2 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Surely this will just get covered up in Russia

Putin's chuckin' that one straight in the "boys will be boys, bad shit happens during wartime (to others, not me)" file.

KYHorn · January 30, 2023

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt · January 30, 2023

25 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Surely this will just get covered up in Russia

Answer: Yes, pretty much.

"The authors of the channel noted that this topic was prohibited to cover in the news in order not to "discredit the army", but the management of the channel decided not to leave this issue on its own."

https://myukraineis.org/news/in_melitopol_kadyrovites_raped_a_russian_propagandist_from_ntv_and_beat_up_a_cameraman-978.html

Google Lens translation of the complaint posted above:

Reveal hidden contents

TV COMPANY HTB
JSC "TELECOMPANY NTV" STR. ARGUNOVSKAYA, 5 MOSCOW, RUSSIA, 129075
•12-3-103/3 a 21.01 OT 202 3r.
to no.
FROM
202 r. Head of the department for interaction with the media of the RF IC, Major General of Justice
Petrenko S.L.
Dear Svetlana Lvovna!
NTV Television JSC asks you to assist in the investigation of the circumstances of the commission of criminal offenses (part 2 of article 131 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, part 2 of article 112 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation) against our film crew.
According to the editorial task, the correspondent Zenkova Olga Viktorovna and
operator-driver Epifanov Artyom Sergeevich were on a business trip in Zaporozhye
area to illuminate the progress of the NWO. On the evening of January 17, 2023, while in the hotel restaurant
"Vorontsovsky" (Melitopol), the film crew was attacked by a group of people in
camouflage uniforms, who introduced themselves as "fighters of the Akhmat battalion".
As a result of the attack, Epifanov Artyom Sergeevich received moderate injuries, as evidenced by the examination report at the Melitopol City Hospital No. 1. Violent acts of a sexual nature were also committed by a group of persons against correspondent Zenkova Olga Viktorovna.
Information about this incident was immediately reported to the military commandant's office and law enforcement agencies of the city of Melitopol.

Sooo, how was Melitopol, bitch?

Parliament · January 30, 2023

38 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Surely this will just get covered up in Russia

Answer: Yes, pretty much.

"The authors of the channel noted that this topic was prohibited to cover in the news in order not to "discredit the army", but the management of the channel decided not to leave this issue on its own."

https://myukraineis.org/news/in_melitopol_kadyrovites_raped_a_russian_propagandist_from_ntv_and_beat_up_a_cameraman-978.html

Google Lens translation of the complaint posted above:

Reveal hidden contents

TV COMPANY HTB
JSC "TELECOMPANY NTV" STR. ARGUNOVSKAYA, 5 MOSCOW, RUSSIA, 129075
•12-3-103/3 a 21.01 OT 202 3r.
to no.
FROM
202 r. Head of the department for interaction with the media of the RF IC, Major General of Justice
Petrenko S.L.
Dear Svetlana Lvovna!
NTV Television JSC asks you to assist in the investigation of the circumstances of the commission of criminal offenses (part 2 of article 131 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, part 2 of article 112 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation) against our film crew.
According to the editorial task, the correspondent Zenkova Olga Viktorovna and
operator-driver Epifanov Artyom Sergeevich were on a business trip in Zaporozhye
area to illuminate the progress of the NWO. On the evening of January 17, 2023, while in the hotel restaurant
"Vorontsovsky" (Melitopol), the film crew was attacked by a group of people in
camouflage uniforms, who introduced themselves as "fighters of the Akhmat battalion".
As a result of the attack, Epifanov Artyom Sergeevich received moderate injuries, as evidenced by the examination report at the Melitopol City Hospital No. 1. Violent acts of a sexual nature were also committed by a group of persons against correspondent Zenkova Olga Viktorovna.
Information about this incident was immediately reported to the military commandant's office and law enforcement agencies of the city of Melitopol.

WTF did she THINK would happen?

Brisketexan · January 30, 2023

3 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

I wouldn't say it's irrelevant. When the current leader dying is the only way to get a transition of power, it's extremely relevant.

No one is saying that Russia will somehow change. But there won't be any change in current policy until there's regime change. Even if the system doesn't change.

I remember in the 90s I went to an investment meeting at a house in River Oaks hosted by a family friend. The whole conversation was about the opportunities in Russia. I told them then that we were in a type of Weimar Republic era for Russia and that soon they would fall back to a strong central leader who was likely repressive and autocratic because that's what the Russian people are comfortable with. I was decidedly unwelcome and was told I was a doomsday sort.

At the time I thought we would have been better off with a sort of Marshall Plan for Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union, but in hindsight it's clear it would have simply ended up in the hands of criminal bosses. I remember hosting some judges as part of my Rotary group who had come over to see how the US justice system worked, and how it implemented a rule by law. I really enjoyed meeting with all of them. About a half dozen of them. They were here for about 3 weeks. We met with judges at the municipal, JOP, district, and federal level. Now I look back and think about what a big waste of time it was.

In any case, the death of Putin is not irrelevant. Thinking that it's a magic wand and suddenly Russia becomes a liberal state based on rule of law is a fantasy. That part is absolutely true. To change the Japanese and German systems - and make no mistake, both of those cultures still think they're better than anyone else, and their predatory nature is still exhibited in their economic export oriented policies - required long occupation periods. Japan had literally never been conquered before. Being conquered (or not being conquered, for that matter) changes a nation's collective consciousness in ways that few things can. Look at how much the UK changed from the Vikings, William of Orange, the Normans. I can't imagine how different the United States would be after emerging from some kind of foreign occupation. In any case, no one is going to be occupying Russia, so that's flat out.

TLDR; Russia is a piece of dick, and there ain't no changing them. Russia will never, ever be fit for joining the civilized world. Not without complete subjugation and occupation, which is never going to happen.

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

And again, this is one of the most short-sighted geopolitical blunders I've ever heard of. Russia had ONE THING going for it, both economically and as a geopolitical lever: it sells petroleum to Europe. The one thing it CANNOT do is blow up its petroleum dealer relationship with Europe. Yet that's exactly what Russia did, in an amazingly short period of time. Shot itself right in the dick.

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt · January 30, 2023

Not a historian: where does this rank in terms of biggest geopolitical blunders in human history?

Bevo · January 30, 2023

1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Not a historian: where does this rank in terms of biggest geopolitical blunders in human history?

You are assuming Ukraine wins. That still isn't a given. Hence, the call for a large increase in more advanced weapons as opposed to incremental increases in weapons in Ukraine's current inventory.

Pato del Muerto · January 30, 2023

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Haven't found the video yet, but it seems like it was in response to a question from a reporter, so it may not be a formal policy statement. Or the subtext could include "yet".

Why give them our old ones when there’s euro nations that will give them theirs and then order more, or a newer platform, from us?

Gatorubet · January 30, 2023

15 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Not a historian: where does this rank in terms of biggest geopolitical blunders in human history?

Jimbo hire, then this

Gatorubet · January 30, 2023

1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

Reveal hidden contents

TV COMPANY HTB
JSC "TELECOMPANY NTV" STR. ARGUNOVSKAYA, 5 MOSCOW, RUSSIA, 129075
•12-3-103/3 a 21.01 OT 202 3r.
to no.
FROM
202 r. Head of the department for interaction with the media of the RF IC, Major General of Justice
Petrenko S.L.
Dear Svetlana Lvovna!
NTV Television JSC asks you to assist in the investigation of the circumstances of the commission of criminal offenses (part 2 of article 131 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, part 2 of article 112 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation) against our film crew.
According to the editorial task, the correspondent Zenkova Olga Viktorovna and
operator-driver Epifanov Artyom Sergeevich were on a business trip in Zaporozhye
area to illuminate the progress of the NWO. On the evening of January 17, 2023, while in the hotel restaurant
"Vorontsovsky" (Melitopol), the film crew was attacked by a group of people in
camouflage uniforms, who introduced themselves as "fighters of the Akhmat battalion".
As a result of the attack, Epifanov Artyom Sergeevich received moderate injuries, as evidenced by the examination report at the Melitopol City Hospital No. 1. Violent acts of a sexual nature were also committed by a group of persons against correspondent Zenkova Olga Viktorovna.
Information about this incident was immediately reported to the military commandant's office and law enforcement agencies of the city of Melitopol.

Maybe she can do a piece on Russian raping of Ukrainian women and why that is a lie?

If she was raped by Moscow mobiks and not Chechen mooselimbs, we would not know about it. Chechens are sorta mud people to white Muscovites, and so that furrowed brow reporting is OK in this case.

Parliament · January 30, 2023

31 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Not a historian: where does this rank in terms of biggest geopolitical blunders in human history?

Barbarosa

Parliament · January 30, 2023

Delete

Edited January 30, 2023 by Parliament

atomheartbevo · January 31, 2023

3 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

I didn’t know that. You’re certainly right about that.

I have to admit to a lack of interest in Australian defense procurement analysis, so I’m glad he’s not going into it.

In one of his videos, he said he was not allowed to talk about certain topics relating to Australia and a few other things as well as proprietary/classified info , so his stuff is based on public numbers/information, and not what he comes across in his day job.

I don't know if his bosses sign off on his videos' subject matter, but he's pretty careful.

It's a pretty fascinating look at the numbers behind the news.

atomheartbevo · January 31, 2023

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Surely this will just get covered up in Russia

Answer: Yes, pretty much.

"The authors of the channel noted that this topic was prohibited to cover in the news in order not to "discredit the army", but the management of the channel decided not to leave this issue on its own."

https://myukraineis.org/news/in_melitopol_kadyrovites_raped_a_russian_propagandist_from_ntv_and_beat_up_a_cameraman-978.html

2 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Putin's chuckin' that one straight in the "boys will be boys, bad shit happens during wartime (to others, not me)" file.

37 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Maybe she can do a piece on Russian raping of Ukrainian women and why that is a lie?

If she was raped by Moscow mobiks and not Chechen mooselimbs, we would not know about it. Chechens are sorta mud people to white Muscovites, and so that furrowed brow reporting is OK in this case.

Actually, if it was actual Kadyrov followers (and they are the type to do this), it would be a great pretext for Putin to knock Kadyrov down a few notches/take him out of the picture completely, given that Kadyrov has at times gotten a little big for his britches. Kadyrov and Wagner are both pretty serious threats to Putin, given that those soldiers are probably more loyal to their leaders than Putin.

atomheartbevo · January 31, 2023

atomheartbevo · January 31, 2023

Starting to get into Throwback February - wonder how many of these are still flying, and how many crews are alive.

atomheartbevo · January 31, 2023

For the Margarita fans, from December

statsman · January 31, 2023

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Not a historian: where does this rank in terms of biggest geopolitical blunders in human history?

1. Imperial Japan knew it couldn’t defeat the US, but figured they could fight us hard enough that we would reach a truce that allowed them access to the fuel needed to continue subjugation of Asia.
2. WWI Germany wanted Russia out of the Allied Powers, so they put Lenin in a sealed train car with a whole bunch of money and sent him back to Russia. He took over (a Duma that was trying to be a relatively liberal democracy), got Russia out of the war (which was almost immediately replaced by the USA). Doh!

SL Xpress · January 31, 2023

2 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Not a historian: where does this rank in terms of biggest geopolitical blunders in human history?

By definition, there's not a lot of perspective on it at the moment.

Frankly, Russia has been involved in a few, it's just normally it's about invading them. Sweden, France, and Germany all made what I would consider huge geopolitical blunders that way.

But the biggest for me are when a culture/people are simply wiped from the face of the Earth. Like Carthage, for example. That's not going to happen here. History has a lot of examples of that happening.

SL Xpress · January 31, 2023

1 hour ago, statsman said:

2. WWI Germany wanted Russia out of the Allied Powers, so they put Lenin in a sealed train car with a whole bunch of money and sent him back to Russia. He took over (a Duma that was trying to be a relatively liberal democracy), got Russia out of the war (which was almost immediately replaced by the USA). Doh!

On that front Jimmy Carter withdrawing support from the Shah because of human rights violations, and instead supporting Khomeini because after meeting him Carter felt like they were both spiritual people, and so insisted he be allowed to return to Iran from France, probably wasn't the best geopolitical decision the US has ever made.

SL Xpress · January 31, 2023

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

In one of his videos, he said he was not allowed to talk about certain topics relating to Australia and a few other things as well as proprietary/classified info , so his stuff is based on public numbers/information, and not what he comes across in his day job.

I don't know if his bosses sign off on his videos' subject matter, but he's pretty careful.

It's a pretty fascinating look at the numbers behind the news.

I just know I gain a different perspective every time I watch one of his powerpoints. Even when it's things I know on some level, his analysis and how he builds his points and conclusions are terrific.

KYHorn · January 31, 2023

5 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Haven't found the video yet, but it seems like it was in response to a question from a reporter, so it may not be a formal policy statement. Or the subtext could include "yet".

Hopefully there's a reason outside of "escalation", but it seems like most allies are waiting to take the next step until we do. So, if we won't provide it, no one else will.

Edited January 31, 2023 by KYHorn

Gatorubet · January 31, 2023

16 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

But the biggest for me are when a culture/people are simply wiped from the face of the Earth. Like Carthage, for example. That's not going to happen here. History has a lot of examples of that happening.

Russia? Too much salt needed.

Judge Roybeanbag · January 31, 2023

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

On that front Jimmy Carter withdrawing support from the Shah because of human rights violations, and instead supporting Khomeini because after meeting him Carter felt like they were both spiritual people, and so insisted he be allowed to return to Iran from France, probably wasn't the best geopolitical decision the US has ever made.

Not that I think it is 100% true, but would urge you to read this about how Carter might have been a little mislead.

https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/01/02/shah-of-iran-diplomacy

JesusSweatDuck · January 31, 2023

32 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Not that I think it is 100% true, but would urge you to read this about how Carter might have been a little mislead.

https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/01/02/shah-of-iran-diplomacy

Either way, Carter was a dumbass when it came to foreign policy.

Seems to be an amazing person, but was a horrible president

Gatorubet · January 31, 2023

Margarita should go to the front and do some investigative journalism on Chechen fighters in Mariupol.

SL Xpress · January 31, 2023

21 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Not that I think it is 100% true, but would urge you to read this about how Carter might have been a little mislead.

https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/01/02/shah-of-iran-diplomacy

Probably best for the Iran thread, which is very active. Nothing in that article has much relevance to me, since it's about what happened after the fall had taken place.

Whether they should or shouldn't have, and it's a matter of personal opinion in many ways, Nixon and Kissinger made Iran the 2nd pillar of their middle east strategy, along with Israel. Ask any Middle Easterner who has anti US feelings and they'll tell you all about the US orchestrated coup of 1953. Truman didn't want to get involved. Eisenhower did. Kennedy wasn't a big Shah fan. LBJ was embroiled with Vietnam.

Carter had a complete distaste for the Shah from the very beginning. He wanted a foreign policy based on human rights, and the Shah certainly represented the opposite of that. The above article tries to make bringing the Shah into the US as the pivotal moment. It wasn't. Supporting Khomeini, tacitly supporting him returning to Iran, putting pressure on the Shah not to do anything to suppress the population, and finally, preventing the army from performing a coup, all while seeing Khomeini as a better alternative to a possible Communist Iran in cahoots with the Soviet Union, were all way more important than any decisions regarding the Shah after he'd been deposed. Frankly, bringing the Shah to the US was the right thing to do from a realpolitik perspective (same with Ferdinand Marcos). As a country, we already get a lot of flak for being a fickle partner. Supporting the democratic movement of the Arab Spring through the funding of NGOs and the encouragement of pro democratic forces has been a complete nightmare. Everyone sees how we abandoned Mubarak, and it's left a mark in a lot of places. As far as I'm concerned, the US dodged a bullet when El-Sisi staged his military coup.

The idea that a Khomeini led theocracy was ever going to be anything but overwhelmingly hostile to the West was a gullible act by members of the Carter administration. It's an insult to suggest hosting the Shah at the end of his life is where the conflict started.

I also don't agree that bringing the hostages home wins Carter the election. Maybe it does, because he looked weak and inept as a leader because of it. But the US had a lot of other issues spring up during the Carter administration. I don't put the blame for all of it at Carter's feet, because like NFL quarterbacks, US presidents get too much credit when things go well, and too much blame when things go poorly. It turns out that many of the US economic ills could be solved by first raising interest rates to astronomical levels, while simultaneously going into unprecedented deficit spending during peacetime that ballooned our expertise in the packaging of debt in this country, and our ability to export it to other countries, allowing us to annually buy goods across the economy while charging the balance to our children and grandchildren. In any case, it's my opinion Carter was going to lose that election regardless. The US was in a malaise, and he simply wasn't the kind of leader that was going to be able to get us out of it. I'm not saying Reagan didn't have his flaws, or that the solution he brought during his 8 years didn't exact a terrible price in many ways. But in the election of 1980, Reagan simply stood out to the American people as what the country needed, and the hostage crisis was merely another symbol of that. Powerful, but not singular. It's irritating to me when people consistently act as if that's the only reason he lost that election.

PTINS · January 31, 2023

5 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Not a historian: where does this rank in terms of biggest geopolitical blunders in human history?

Not sure how one would quantify that.

From a natural resource and economic perspective, I don't know if anything compares to this.

This is a dated slide, but the general comparison is still representative. Russia used to be the #2 producer of Oil & Gas in the world, behind the US and well ahead of Saudi Arabia. The US & Russia are more balanced between oil & gas production, while Saudi is much more oil heavy. Russia's gas production pushes them past Saudi Arabia.

One main thing driving the US & Russia gas production volumes is market for the produced gas. The main reason for US & Russian export volumes is because pipeline deliveries dwarf LNG deliveries due to efficiencies and economics.

Russia killed the golden goose, the European gas market, in February 2022. Increased pipeline deliveries to China are at best 10 years away. Sanctions will crush the Russian domestic industrial demand and over time, the sanctions will cripple Russian oil & gas productive capacity. Russia production will eventually find its way back into the marketplace, but as a secondary supply source at a much different price point (see Venezuela).

Rough numbers, Russia put ~ $250 Billion/yr of O&G exports at risk by invading Ukraine.

tx 3 putt · January 31, 2023

Bevo · January 31, 2023

4 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

What was that? It was accurate as shit.

Captainant · January 31, 2023

5 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

17 minutes ago, Bevo said:

What was that? It was accurate as shit.

It looks like the penetrator warhead from a shaped charge, given the ephemeral straight line of "FUCK YOU" that initiates with an explosion

KYHorn · January 31, 2023

Bevo · January 31, 2023

18 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It looks like the penetrator warhead from a shaped charge, given the ephemeral straight line of "FUCK YOU" that initiates with an explosion

Fired from a M777? I didn't know they were that accurate - those were all direct hits. Devastating.

KYHorn · January 31, 2023

Edited January 31, 2023 by KYHorn

KYHorn · January 31, 2023

Edited January 31, 2023 by KYHorn

KYHorn · January 31, 2023

Edited January 31, 2023 by KYHorn

KYHorn · January 31, 2023

Not sure if this represents new tank donations, but it seems like the total numbers were smaller, so maybe some countries are quietly adding to the numbers.

Edited January 31, 2023 by KYHorn

BehoId, The Underminer! · January 31, 2023

Wagner recruitment video targeting Americans up on Twitter right now.

Bevo · January 31, 2023

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

It looks like the penetrator warhead from a shaped charge, given the ephemeral straight line of "FUCK YOU" that initiates with an explosion

Maybe something like a Spike SR. I don't know what else is multi-launch. Saab AT4's are single launch.

Edited January 31, 2023 by Bevo

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