Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Schulz2.0 28995]

12 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So again, how many rockets can we get them?  Can they be used strategically, or one-off targets only?

"Boeing says it has available stocks, but has declined to say how many."

[Schulz2.0 28995]

 

[PTINS 3472]

Saw this on ... gulp ... Tex Ags

Interesting read, kinda long.  I don't recall reading anything from this website here. I make no representations on the validity of the article.

The gist of the article is the Russian Cruise Missile shot down last week has some features that may have not been known to "western intelligence" (my word).

The Drive /The War Zone

Intriguing Features Seen On Largely Intact Russia Cruise Missile Wreck

"One of Russia’s most modern missiles, and one that has ravaged Ukraine in recent months, came down relatively intact in Central Ukraine.

Pictures of what looks to be the relatively intact remains of a downed Russian Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile offer an unusually clear view of some of its features. This includes a look at what appears to be the camera for its Otblesk-U electro-optical guidance system and what may be some kind of countermeasures system.

The Kh-101 in question was reportedly shot down by Ukraine's forces in the country's central Vinnytsia region on January 26." 

"Whatever the case, this would not be the first time that the conflict in Ukraine has exposed a previously unseen countermeasures capability on a Russian missile. 

Ukrainian battlefields have already proven more broadly to be a goldmine of at least partially intact examples of all manner of higher-end Russian weapon systems and other military equipment ... It's all but certain that officials in Ukraine have forwarded details they've gleaned, and entire captured systems, along to their international partners, including the United States, for further analysis."

  

[KYHorn 17120]

Pretty compelling account of a Ukrainian soldier fighting Wagner in a 20 vs 200 battle.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-soldier-says-wagner-troops-wouldnt-stop-fighting-2023-2

 

[Schulz2.0 28995]

 

[956 Worldwide 34741]

France needs to tell the IOC that if Russians aren’t gone from Ukraine, then they can either have the games somewhere else or they can tell the Russians they can’t come. 
 

Honestly, fuck big international sport at this point, all of them— IOC,FIFA, F1(FIA).  They’re mostly PR for dictators now. 
 

 

[SL Xpress 7517]

11 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Pretty compelling account of a Ukrainian soldier fighting Wagner in a 20 vs 200 battle.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-soldier-says-wagner-troops-wouldnt-stop-fighting-2023-2

 

I did not realize compelling was a synonym for terrifying. 

Interesting speculation about the prisoners being given drugs prior to battle. I would find it more surprising if they didn't. 

Battling 200 soldiers with 20 men over a 10 hour time period, shooting enemies and they just keep coming, watching them step over piles of dead bodies of the already slain, feeling like you lost sight of a flank and they ended up surrounding what remained of your squad, out of ammunition, out of grenades, and then they retreat. That's...insane. 

This war will be viewed in hindsight, regardless of the outcome. They all are. Like the end result was somewhat predetermined. But they are not. I wish I could somehow magically impart a sense of urgency on the west to provide even more advanced weaponry. It's very possible things are going on behind the scenes to help get Ukrainian pilots into F16s or their equivalent. It's not like there could be some kind of huge base of Ukrainian fighter pilots to draw from, and everyone pulled away from duty has to have an impact on the combat readiness of whatever air force they have left. But I'm reading plenty of accounts of Russia being more effective with their combined arms in places, in particular their fighter jets being able to make some impact, when they hadn't been for a long time. And the Ukrainian pilots sound like they're pretty much sitting ducks out there now, when in the advance towards Kherson they were actually able to maintain tactical air superiority at times. 

I'm grateful for the GLSDB HIMARs munitions. Hopefully they're as effective as we hope. If they're not, or the supply of them is inadequate, I do hope we move forward quickly with ATACMS. 

I wonder if the lack of capacity for production and the uncertain date for replacement with the updated precision missiles is a factor in not supplying them? I know the standard party line is the fear of being used for attacks in Russia, which if that's the fear, seems entirely legitimate given their range. But I wonder if there are any other factors at play. 

Well, Russia looks like they're going to launch some kind of major offensive soon (within a month or so), so we'll see how it goes. It seems apparent to me the armor they'll be using will consist of a great deal pulled out of storage, but it was their lack of combined arms that was the major issue last year, not the quality of armor. Given their command and political structure, there's zero chance their forces are suddenly more flexible and can take initiative at the squad/platoon level, but if they simply don't leave their armor naked while going on the offensive it could make a big difference, especially if their air superiority ends up being more decisive than it was last year. 

My hope is that their morale overall is such that at the first sign of things going wrong many of their units simply breakdown entirely in effectiveness. 

[statsman 5473]

SL Xpress, that wasn’t an encouraging post, but it was insightful. 
 
This war isn’t like most modern wars- over quickly due to a focus on strategic goals and capabilities. The Russians aren’t capable of that. They seem to be only capable of 19th century style mass movements and engagements. 
 
I don’t understand Bakhmut. That was a town of 70,000. Why has the war been focused on it for months now? Sure, they’re killing lots of Russians. I don’t think Russia cares. Russia doesn’t count its casualties because it doesn’t care and doesn’t want to know. 
 
Ukraine really needs to prepare for the coming offensive. I suppose they still (thanks to Uncle Sam) have Comms superiority, so they’ll know when, where and how it’s coming. It would be nice to blow it up with a counteroffensive of their own first, if they have the men and armament. 

[Schulz2.0 28995]

 

[Nivek 16949]

Last year they launched the offensive and became bogged down in the mud.  So they will launch another one at the same timeframe and hope for different results?  

Ukraine will be ready and they will know when and where the strike will come from.  

 

[Schulz2.0 28995]

 

[statsman 5473]

Ukraine can’t fall into the trap of counting Russia casualties. As much fun as it may be to kill Russians, Russia doesn’t care. They don’t care about any of their people, let alone the convicts and conscripts they’re dumping at the Ukraine front lines. 

(Much like Vietnam- the VC and North Vietnamese troops suffered many more KIA than the US and South Vietnamese, but it ended up not really mattering). 

The strategic goal is to get Russia out of Ukraine- either through military force or political and economic pressure. 

[Dahobbs 17627]

16 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Last year they launched the offensive and became bogged down in the mud.  So they will launch another one at the same timeframe and hope for different results?  

Ukraine will be ready and they will know when and where the strike will come from.  

 

The timing of it may be an attempt to beat the arrival of new western tanks and equipment. 

[Trey3216 15350]

On 1/31/2023 at 8:26 PM, Clintonaldo said:

The biggest atrocity of all will be when the Mexicans rebuild Ukraine and I can’t get any decent goddamn tacos. I will never get over this. 

You'll be fine, the Guatemalans will cook them for you.  

[NorthLoop 14219]

14 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

You'll be fine, the Guatemalans will cook them for you.  

Just don't hire Dominicans

 

[Trey3216 15350]

22 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

Why is it that anytime I see Petr/Petro Pavel's name I think of Peter Popoff?  lulz 

[Pescado_Rojo 19427]

1 hour ago, Nivek said:

Last year they launched the offensive and became bogged down in the mud.  So they will launch another one at the same timeframe and hope for different results?  

Ukraine will be ready and they will know when and where the strike will come from.  

 

Hopefully Ukraine will have the GLSDB rounds before then and can thin the Russians out before they even begin their offensive. 

Good 

Luck

Striking

Donbas

Boris 

[Schulz2.0 28995]

 

 

[Nivek 16949]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

The timing of it may be an attempt to beat the arrival of new western tanks and equipment. 

Good.  So their tanks will be getting the tractor treatment, and when the mud is gone, the western tankers will be ready and waiting?

At this point it seems like the Russian strategy is like the old guys from "All Quiet on the Western Front" strategizing about how they need just one good push.

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[Schulz2.0 28995]

 

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[HamsterHookah 112]

On 1/22/2023 at 7:07 PM, atomheartbevo said:

This is some Tom Clancy shit, only the GRU under 1980s and early 1990s Tom Clancy would have been far bolder, more competent, and they would have already splintered NATO completely, rather than NATO ramping up more and more support as we head into the second year.

I searched "Clancy" today to see if there is discussion around another thread and you, sir, have mentioned "Tom Clancy" on this thread alone, 16 times. SIXTEEN times, in like 9 months.

Do you love Tom Clancy books?

[Jameslaw121 4448]

14 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

I searched "Clancy" today to see if there is discussion around another thread and you, sir, have mentioned "Tom Clancy" on this thread alone, 16 times. SIXTEEN times, in like 9 months.

Do you love Tom Clancy books?

***raises hand***

 

I do.. Just finished "Without Remorse" for at least the 5th time.

[Gatorubet 30275]

14 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

I searched "Clancy" today to see if there is discussion around another thread and you, sir, have mentioned "Tom Clancy" on this thread alone, 16 times. SIXTEEN times, in like 9 months.

Do you love Tom Clancy books?

Tom Clancy????? I’m Tom Klansea…

 

[MillerEP 30492]

^No clue if this is real or propaganda, but the fucked up thing is that knowing what we all know, it is entirely possible this is real.

Edited February 2, 2023 by MillerEP

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[Gatorubet 30275]

When large parts of the Russian invasion force is comprised of the worst scum from Russia’s prisons, upon reflection it would be naïve to think that they would not pursue such things as one of their normal income producing activities. 

And there is no way that they do not know about Stalin’s reaction when told Russian soldiers where mass raping everyone in Berlin. He said “Can't you understand if a soldier who has crossed thousands of kilometres through blood and fire and death has fun with a woman or takes some trifle?”

That is their legacy. That is their heritage. That is who they are, and will always be.

[freyguy 4283]

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

^No clue if this is real or propaganda, but the fucked up thing is that knowing what we all know, it is entirely possible this is real.

soooo, how close can we park a couple of carriers near the Black Sea and lay waste to these guys?

[InkaUtexas 26022]

Not Leopard 2's, but at least they are going to roll them in. 

 

[SL Xpress 7517]

11 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Not Leopard 2's, but at least they are going to roll them in. 

 

This Reuters article cites "dozens" available for reconditioning. This is in addition to the 14 Leopard 2A6's Germany has also committed to sending. 

Also, it indicates they want to send the 15 Gepard anti air vehicles that were in Qatar for the World Cup to Kyiv - which have been so effective against the Persian Shahed drones - along with the ammunition. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-approves-leopard-1-delivery-ukraine-talks-with-qatar-over-gepards-2023-02-02/

With Russia being forced to deploy so much of their armor coming from storage in various states of readiness, I would think the Leopard 1s could still provide a tremendous boon, especially if they're being augmented by the 2A6's. Even just using them to defend against possible Russian offensives towards Kyiv and Kharkiv, while using the more modern tanks on the offensive in the east and south would be wonderful.

Strange vacillations regarding fighter jets. UK recently stated uncategorically no to Tornados and F35s because they're too complicated, and then today Ben Wallace the defense minister says he's not ruling out sending fighter jets in the future. I cannot imagine under any scenario the F35s being deployed. But I'm glad they're not being so definitive today. 

Just like the Leopard 2s were the obvious primary choice for a main battle tank, the F16s are the obvious choice for a fighter jet. They're the most produced. The most countries have them. They're about to be outdated. They have an incredible array of suites they can be attached with. They're a single pilot fighter as opposed to the F14 or F15, for a country that can't possibly have a surfeit of capable pilots. But just as with sending the Challenger 2s, sending Tornados would be a wonderful first step for everyone else. Same with the French, who have the Mirage and Rafale. Very capable aircraft, but simply don't have the same abundance or usage across as many NATO nations as the F16.  The timings obviously not right for various reasons, but I'm hopeful pilots are being trained for when the go signal is given. 

[InkaUtexas 26022]

Agree, Leopard 1's should be able to hold up and work flanks/defensive positions. 

F-16's would be nice to see being handed over, but not holding my breath. 

 

[SL Xpress 7517]

A video from Ukrainian pilot with an emotional plea for F16s:

 

Here's an associated article from Financial Times discussing whether Ukraine needs F16s or their equivalent, along with some pretty pointed pleas from the Ukrainian pilot featured in the video:

https://www.ft.com/content/bdcba1a3-9c25-445e-9885-cf6f0b126b7f

Juice said the F-16 had better modern sensors, avionics and weaponry than any of the planes in Ukraine’s fleet, and could be used with missiles that have a longer range than enemy fire, helping to counter Russia’s superior jets. Ukraine could not afford to wait because it was losing its best pilots in combat.

“If we wait six months more, we will get to the moment when we will have only reservist grandpas, not young pilots with good knowledge, good training.”

[SL Xpress 7517]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Not Leopard 2's, but at least they are going to roll them in. 

 

More Leopard 1s sitting around a warehouse in Belgium. A little bit of a crazy story. Dude bought Belgium's stock of Leopard 1s back in 2014 for tens of thousands of euros apiece, and now during a war is trying to sell them for $500,000 apiece, and the somewhat hot but slightly unrealistic Belgium defense minister is saying he's being an opportunist. Uh, yeah. That's exactly what he's doing. 

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19427]

I remember reading something a while back that the best thing to do would be to take a cohort of young pilots right out of basic flight school and send them to the west to learn on western jets from the beginning rather than take a bunch of seasoned MiG pilots and try to teach them to fly western jets. I don’t know if that ever happened, but it made sense. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

I don’t think Ukraine can expel Russia by force.  Russia just has too much in numbers, too long to solidify positions.  A victory will have to come by voluntary withdrawal.  

[Gatorubet 30275]

31 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I don’t think Ukraine can expel Russia by force.  Russia just has too much in numbers, too long to solidify positions.  A victory will have to come by voluntary withdrawal.  

I personally do not believe that Poland and Finland will allow Russia to take over Ukraine. Why would they want a Russian Ukraine as a platform for taking back parts of Poland or Finland?  They have flat out announced their goal is to recover their former territories. Why on earth would Poland and Finland let Russia do that to Ukraine and then give Russia time to build up their military again?   I just don’t see it. 

[956 Worldwide 34741]

1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I remember reading something a while back that the best thing to do would be to take a cohort of young pilots right out of basic flight school and send them to the west to learn on western jets from the beginning rather than take a bunch of seasoned MiG pilots and try to teach them to fly western jets. I don’t know if that ever happened, but it made sense. 

That’s what countries like Poland and Slovakia have/are doing as they move from the legacy fighters, but it might not be best for Ukraine right now, if they got them. 
 

First, the pilot demographics are probably different.  After years of underinvestment, nearly all their MiG pilots were usually pretty well into the second half of their careers.  When transitioning onto a a new platform in peacetime, this is just good sense— invest in the new guys, keep the old guys around as long as you have the other jets. You don’t want to be training another cohort when the old-timers retire. It’s even a recruitment pitch to get people to sign up to fly or work on the new stuff.  I imagine Ukraine, which has been preparing for war and had no new jets on the horizon, has a decent cohort of young pilots that can learn new tricks.  And, you’re wanting to put them into combat immediately, as soon as the jet and pilot and ground crew are ready. 
 

Second— we don’t know Ukraine’s current training capability. I do know the Ukrainian sky is a dangerous place all over the country and that they’re throwing all they have at Russia. I wouldn’t be surprised if they just don’t have the people or the safe air space to do anything beyond ground school. So unless they’re doing it outside the country, that would be another factor that would shift the timeline of fielding any new western jets. 
 

 

[atomheartbevo 89763]

 

[SL Xpress 7517]

4 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I don’t think Ukraine can expel Russia by force.  Russia just has too much in numbers, too long to solidify positions.  A victory will have to come by voluntary withdrawal.  

The truth is for Ukraine to get the Donbas back will require a regime change. Either a transition that's so chaotic that the military has no clear orders, or one in which military units are needed for internal conflict, or a transition where the new regime changes course. 

But I do think they can get Crimea back. I don't know that they will, but the possibility exists in my mind (which would be mildly ironic, because I'm unconvinced a significant part of the population in Crimea actually wants to be a part of Ukraine - it's certainly not clear from polls).

You talk about voluntary withdrawal, and what I would say is that Kherson represented a voluntary withdrawal. It's not like Ukrainian forces went from house to house in street fighting. They made it impossible to supply the forces there, and that left some valuable Russian troops in a precarious position. Rather than lose them, Kremlin ordered a withdrawal. A voluntary withdrawal, so to speak.

If Ukraine cuts off the land bridge to Crimea, blows up the Kerch Bridge to the point of making it completely inoperable, and manages to threaten any supplies by ship or air - which is all doable, if extremely challenging - it will put all kinds of pressure on Russia to withdraw their forces or have them completely routed. I don't understand what that means for Sevastopol, because the naval base there is almost certainly the #1 asset in all of the occupied territories, and is the major reason for the little green men operation in Crimea in the first place. 

The problem with the eastern portion of Donbas is that it cannot actually be encircled without an invasion across the Russian border. It's why limited wars are always so farcical and why the Powell Doctrine was just plain common sense. When you limit what your military is able to do for political purposes - and specifically if you don't allow your military to chase opposing forces across a border - you automatically make an enemy intransigent on some level. (that said, there ARE legitimate political reasons not to want to expand a conflict - hence Truman firing MacArthur, as an example - they just don't serve the military very well in trying to obtain victory). 

This has always been akin to a religious war for Putin, and by extension, the rest of the country. Look at the rhetoric coming out of not only propaganda organs, but common citizens on the street. They're often in lockstep. Ukrainians are our brothers who are ruled by Nazis/Banderistas. This is a war for the future of civilization, and only Russia can save humanity from ourselves. The wicked, demonic, corrupt West, with their decadent values want to wipe Russia off the face of the planet. People talk about how if Russia suffers more losses the common people of Russia will turn on the government. Personally, I think the Russian tolerance for losses is much greater than folks like that are willing to admit. It's not a universal feeling. Look at how many fled from mobilization. But the appetite for fighting among those who won't actually be going into combat seems quite high. 

So assuming Ukrainian victories on the field - which is not a 100% assumption at this point - eventually they'll push Russian forces towards Donetsk, where instead of these huge front lines that can be exploited, you have a much more dense area to defend with resupply protected by the border. 

So in that sense they can't be expelled by force. But neither can the Ukrainians. Hence this attritional warfare against a clock, with one side needing the West to continue to be Ukraine's willing manufacturing base, and the other needing Putin to live longer than the West's willingness to support the Ukrainian side. And both sides wanting to make progress towards achieving more territorial gains. 

[SL Xpress 7517]

71 year old mortar operator. Volunteered when he was 65 years of age to fight in the Donbas region. Call sign "Granddad" because of course it is. A colorful and highly entertaining interview. Credits his health to climbing mountains when he was younger. Dad was a Soviet Army Officer. Grew up in Soviet barracks. Loves using the PKM (the Pokemon) but doesn't get as many opportunities any more as a mortar man. 

Translation by Dmitri (two parts):

 

[Auto Driller 2506]

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-vladimir-putin-ukraine-territory-end-war-nzz-report-1778526?amp=1
 

Joe Biden Offered Vladimir Putin 20 Percent of Ukraine to End War: Report
 

Total bullshit if this is true.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Even if not true, it’s not great that German politicians are sowing discord to the press. 

[956 Worldwide 34741]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Even if not true, it’s not great that German politicians are sowing discord to the press. 

The WH has denied. This reeks of a Russian info op.  First, because Russia would have taken the deal if it was true. “The Americans tried to surrender but Ukraine refused and we know we will win anyway?”

That shit was written in the Kremlin.