Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 89,414]

5 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Girkin not optimistic about the offensive

3 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

I can only conclude that this guy has some major players protecting him.  Perhaps he's been isolated as that one guy who's allowed to tell it like it is, so that there is at least one outlet of truth going to the top.  Otherwise I just don't see how he's avoided falling out a window by now.  Or perhaps it's that he caters to such a small section of the public who cares about getting into the military weeds that they say he's not even worth it.  I don't know.  It just seems very strange that we continue to get these very frank,  negative opinions that seem to be informed by first hand info from the front.  Like he's calling his old military academy classmates and getting the real scoop to form his opinions.  So very odd in the current Russian political climate.  Which is pretty much the same as always Russian political climate:  the truth is only what the state reports it to be.  Which one of you old Russia hands can explain how this guy lives?  

Yeah, I'm shocked he is still alive.  There's plenty of lower-level officials who could have/would have offed him before now, and his whereabouts are not a big secret.

It's fucking weird, because it's not like on Russian state TV where the talking heads will lament some major failing of the Russian military, and then turn around and blame the oligarchs or the West or corruption or whatever.  Girkin straight up blames the leadership.

[atomheartbevo 89,414]

4 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

On country naming, I’ve wondered why it seems the Dominican republic is the only translatable name that we actually translate instead of just anglicizing the pronunciation of Spanish spelling.  I think it might be just because it sounds silly to us to call a country Rich Coast or a territory Rich Port.  We don’t translate cities though- I guess we have enough San saint names and Los nouns that we are accustomed to it. 

I would love to tell people that I live in Body of Christ, Texas.

[atomheartbevo 89,414]

3 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I suspect Russian logistics are pretty stingy with what they send to the prison units.  They are where they are to perform a Pickett charge but with sufficient numbers to succeed, and the more Ukrainian ammo they eat while doing it the better for Russia. 

At the same time, they had a million and a half winter uniforms for the regular army go missing (well, they were never manufactured outside of some words on a piece of paper), before they were pulling in the convicts, and If they had those forces that they could use elsewhere, that were actually supplied, with all kinds of equipment and vehicles, they would have rolled over Bakhmut months ago.  

Unless Bakhmut is really about diminishing Wagner and removing it as a thread - I would not put that above Putin - if Wagner takes Bakhmut, he can push them aside and let the Russian army control it, and if Wagner fails, Putin sidelines Wagner even more.  And he's got 10s of thousands of dead convicts in the process, that were a drain on the Russian government.

Not to go on a tangent, but you need 3-5 soldiers on offense for every 1 soldier on defense, and Russia does not have those kinds of numbers.  I'd argue that you need more than 3-5 soldiers on offense, because things like drones have allowed Ukraine to have eyes all over the real-time battlefield (plus Western satellites), and things like the Javelins have allowed them to have anti-tank teams all over the place.  And HIMARS and other highly-mobile artillery means there's some artillery that can respond fairly rapidly to any potential breakouts.  Plus, lower-ranking Russians are not known for taking the initiative if things go poorly, and I don't see how they could have trained that into anybody that's been mobilized over the last 3-4 months.

This whole thing is nuts.  I'm still amazed that they backed off Kyiv and gave up Kharkiv and Kherson.  It's like they've been working out how much blood and how much defeat the Russian people will tolerate.  

[MillerEP 30,339]

 

[MillerEP 30,339]

 

 

[Superhero 8,772]

2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

This is the wallpaper on my computer. So it hits close to home. 

[MillerEP 30,339]

 

[MillerEP 30,339]

 

[Viper 12,028]

6 hours ago, Parliament said:

And Germans always pronounce my name wrong.  So what.  Don't bother me none.

Bundestag? 

[Bevo 13,526]

40 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

 

Ukraine needs to declare war on Iran. It would give the US, Israel and others cover to do the same. Or let me put it another way. Russia is paying in nuclear technology rather than cash. And that is unacceptable to the free world.

[MissingInAction 24,814]

7 hours ago, Parliament said:

And Germans always pronounce my name wrong.  So what.  Don't bother me none.

Turkee acting like Aggy.

No one has ever been able to pronounce my last name correctly on the first try after reading it. 5 consonants and 1 vowell.

[Bevo 13,526]

3 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

No one has ever been able to pronounce my last name correctly on the first try after reading it. 5 consonants and 1 vowell.

Fluckr?

 

No, I didn't even know her.

[InkaUtexas 25,506]

Camel, like most of the world, is tired of Russian bullshit. I am team Camel. 

 

[Pato del Muerto 52,342]

Wonder if the camel felt like it was in flavor country. 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Pato del Muerto

[RDCanecutter 26,250]

On 2/4/2023 at 12:06 PM, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Can we stop saying Turkiye?

Damn right. Or at least haggle so we get something for doing it.

Next thing they'll force us to use the French spelling of France.

[atomheartbevo 89,414]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Camel, like most of the world, is tired of Russian bullshit. I am team Camel. 

Responses are great

The Mirror says he's dead Jim

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/furious-camel-bites-tramples-man-29027309

 

Edited February 5, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[staboner 4,957]

When camels attack. damn. that looked unpleasant

[Gatorubet 30,088]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Camel, like most of the world, is tired of Russian bullshit. I am team Camel. 

 

Definitely NOT Mongo!!

[Parliament 14,133]

7 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

 

 

Peter Zeihan says Russia always borks Year 1 then replaces their generals and finds a way to win with brutality.  We (including me) have said, "This time is different.  They don't have enough people for materiel to do it."  But now I dunno.  Might be wrong.

[atomheartbevo 89,414]

4 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Peter Zeihan says Russia always borks Year 1 then replaces their generals and finds a way to win with brutality.  We (including me) have said, "This time is different.  They don't have enough people for materiel to do it."  But now I dunno.  Might be wrong.

Zeihan makes a lot of good points in a lot of his talks, but for somebody who thinks Russia will fully collapse within 10-20 years because of demographic problems (exasperated by people fleeing and dying), and that Russia had to invade Ukraine proper last year because it was the last year where X amount of men were coming of age and could be drafted into the military, he is glossing over a lot of stuff (and even he admits that Ukraine has shocked him, the West's support has shocked him, and that Russia's poor performance was far worse than expected).

Here in 2023, they just don't have the manpower.  They are struggling to fill quotas, and were literally grabbing men off the streets last fall, and were recruiting from their prisons.  700,000+ military-aged men fled Russia last year when mobilization was rumored and then announced.  They are hurting really bad in the 18-50 years old category, especially in that younger category.

They also don't have the massive equipment reserves they once had, or rather they don't have reserves that were actually stored and maintained properly, and Putin and his cronies have gutted the military in a lot of areas.

This was literally on their doorstep, and Russia had 8 years to prepare, to get vehicles out of storage and running, to produce a stockpile of muniments, to boost the military budget to something more than $60 billion, and instead they shot their wad and came up lacking, and a year later, they can't even claim air superiority, even though that was always going to be a huge thing for Russia, given their advantage in jets.   Instead, they are launching cruise missiles from ships far out at sea or bombers far back inside of Russia.

They have never faced anything like this since the breakup of the Soviet Union, and the one time they faced something like this as the Soviet Union, they had the United States at its industrial peak supplying and keeping them in the fight.  

As the Soviet Union, they bailed on Afghanistan (population 13 million) after taking far less casualties than in 2022, even though the Soviet Union had 262 million people versus less than 140 million that Russia has here in 2023.

Now they are reduced to using Iran and North Korea as their primary suppliers rather than their own defense industry, and they are relying heavily on Iran keeping them in the fight.

Fucking Iran and North Korea.

This is not the Soviet Union of 1980 or 1960.

Zeihan sometimes throws contrarian shit out there just because.

[Parliament 14,133]

So Russia's "success" this winter comes at the price of using conscripts at a rate WAY faster than they can sustain?  And they'll inevitably run out and hafta fall back, despite any improvement in tactics?

I'm not trying to disagree, but you can see how an idiot on the internet can lose faith.

[Bevo 13,526]

27 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So Russia's "success" this winter comes at the price of using conscripts at a rate WAY faster than they can sustain?  And they'll inevitably run out and hafta fall back, despite any improvement in tactics?

I'm not trying to disagree, but you can see how an idiot on the internet can lose faith.

I think Russia is fine with running out of prisoners and running out of the unemployed. The question is how far along will they be in the war by the time they run out.

The West seems to think what we are seeing is the beginning of a Russian offensive and the main offensive is coming in a matter of weeks. They believe that Ukraine will stop this offensive and be able to mount a counter-offensive in a couple of months.

I agree with the West mainly because I believe our weapons announcements come after some of the weapons have already been delivered. And while the incremental weapons releases to prevent escalation is stupid, I also think it is stupid to hand over weapons that Ukraine isn't ready for - so I guess it depends on whether Ukraine has already been trained on F16s and whether Ukraine has enough trained military to run Leopards, Challengers, Leclercs, and Abrams and whether more of these tanks have been delivered than have been announced. Because supplying weapons in 6 months is dumb when Ukraine needs them now.

[atomheartbevo 89,414]

5 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So Russia's "success" this winter comes at the price of using conscripts at a rate WAY faster than they can sustain?  And they'll inevitably run out and hafta fall back, despite any improvement in tactics?

I'm not trying to disagree, but you can see how an idiot on the internet can lose faith.

Sorry up front for the ramble, but it's just fascinating to me how many mistakes they've made, and how arrogant they were (of course, the previous 30 years saw them easily handling most of the military situations that arose, and were never this big of an operation against a well-trained/supplied enemy).

Pre-war they had a ground force of 350,000 or so active duty.  Breaking that out into logistics, support (food prep, medical, etc.) as well as non-frontline combat arms (artillery, air support, etc.), and all of the sudden you start dropping into a range of maybe 50,000 who are actually dudes with guns who can take and hold territory.  That's not a lot when invading a country of 40 million people.   And the 2022 invasion force probably had at most 50,000 dudes with guns who can take and hold territory, because it was not the entirety  of their ground forces (and it probably leaned heavily on infantry, but still needed the support troops to actually move lots of troops over the ground).  Obviously they've boosted those numbers, either pulling trained personnel from other jobs (which hurts the military longterm), or with mobilization, but even if they doubled or tripled the number of dudes with guns who can take and hold territory, it's still not a lot, because they still have to have a lot of  guys in the rear doing REMF stuff to keep the guys in the front going.

For reference, we went into Iraq in 2003, a smaller country with a mostly gutted military that hadn't had any new stuff since the 1980s, and we did it with air superiority, with an extremely mobile force of 250,000+, and we still struggled, even after removing the Iraqi leadership and installing new leadership.  

If you look at Zeihan's videos about demographics, and he puts a lot into them, Russia is on a downward trend - last year they produced fewer 18 years than 2021, this year they will produce fewer 18 year olds than 2022, etc. so they've got an ever-shrinking pool to draw their normal yearly conscriptions from (all Russian men are supposed to do a year in the military).  Conscriptions, not the mobilizations where they call up men outside of their normal military service.

Putin allowed around 700,000+ military-aged men to flee Russia.  On the surface, Putin got rid of 700,000 men who might have resisted mobilization and/or protested the war.  700,000 men out of 140 million is not a lot, but 700,000 men out of the pool of 14 million 20-34 year-olds gets to be interesting, especially when those 14 million men are also (in theory) the prime drivers behind the economy, and 700,000 of those who might have been making more money than most just bailed.

Russia also has a problem with training and leadership - their training battalions were gutted to boost manpower on the frontlines, and they rely heavily on men who re-enlisted for another year or two as their NCO corps, and now they've lost a helluva lot of experienced men they could have otherwise relied on to both train incoming mobilized troops, but also provide the backbone of small-unit operations. But it gets worse - their officers do much of what we think of American NCOs as doing, and they've lost 1,740+ officers (confirmed by official Russian government accounts, social media, actual burials, etc.).

The documented losses below are staggering, it's the equivalent of:

• 800 platoons losing their leaders
• 330 companies/batteries/troops losing their leaders
• 120+ battalions/squadrons losing their leaders (in their military they have majors sometimes filling in the Lt. Col. slot)
• 50+ regiments losing their leaders
• Multiple division-level leaders

But it gets murky, because maybe it wasn't 800 platoons losing their leaders, because those senior lieutenants may have been filling in as company commanders, which means maybe more than 330+ companies lost their leaders, etc. Still, they lost 1,740+ officers who not only do officer shit in Russia, but also NCO shit.

[BamaATL 16,592]

20 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So Russia's "success" this winter comes at the price of using conscripts at a rate WAY faster than they can sustain?  And they'll inevitably run out and hafta fall back, despite any improvement in tactics?

I'm not trying to disagree, but you can see how an idiot on the internet can lose faith.

The russians have been entirely predictable to this point, no reason the west and the Ukrainians wouldn't plan with that in mind.  The russian military leadership seems to still largely use old Napoleonic tactics (i.e fighting in columns, etc.), the irony being that what did Napoleon in at Waterloo could very well be the strategy that ultimately gets them crushed.  Essentially, I think the Ukrainians will cede territory in the next bit of all this, not because they can't hold, but because it stretches the russians already awful logistics, and the further they entice them to move forward, the easier disruption will be able to achieve.  At the right moment, I think the Ukrainians will blow up rail bridges at major points, bridges, etc, in Luhansk and Donetsk and the Kerch bridge to prevent the flow of goods and then strike.  With the russians cut from supply, exposed away from their current defensive positions, and largely in the open, then would be the most optimal time for a counter offensive.  Essentially over the next couple of months, I expect strategic Ukrainian retreats; but in reality I am convinced they are setting up large scale ambushes and encirclement (perhaps the largest in history).  

The manpower, as inferior as it is for russia is still replaceable and of no real consequence to the Kremlin and especially not to putin.  However, what will matter is the continued loss of equipment.  The goal at this point shouldn't be just to kill as many russians as possible, it should be to capture or kill the maximum amount of equipment as possible.  Ultimately, that is what they can't replace.  Killing their rank and file and of course the convicts should just be the cherry on top.  If they can capture or kill the majority of the equipment in country, putin may well be forced to withdraw simply because he may not have the ability to maintain basic border defense (and yes I do think he's going to get a Chinese double cross in Siberia before this is all said and done).  

[cactusflinthead 27,594]

 

[Gatorubet 30,088]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

If they can capture or kill the majority of the equipment in country, putin may well be forced to withdraw simply because he may not have the ability to maintain basic border defense (and yes I do think he's going to get a Chinese double cross in Siberia before this is all said and done).  

Yeah, I actually think it’s in China’s best interest to let the west diminish Russia’s military power in Ukraine. 

[BamaATL 16,592]

4 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Yeah, I actually think it’s in China’s best interest to let the west diminish Russia’s military power in Ukraine. 

Strong man 101, shit's bad in your country, grab a quick military victory.  (Make no mistake, shit's pretty bad in China on numerous levels - Covid, real estate bubble (the big problem), aging population, no women, the list goes on.).  I fully believe Xi was going to invade Taiwan until putin said hold my beer.  Then he got to see how shitty the designs of the equipment China primarily copied for their military performed in the field and he was wise enough to nix that.  But he still needs a win, and Siberia makes a lot of sense.

1.  We know that the russian military is degraded at a significant level.  We also know that they have been moving arctic equipment into the field of combat, at least some of it from Siberia.  

2.  We know the russian military is hopelessly tied to logistics via rail.  There are several extremely large bridges on the trans Siberian railroad that could easily be cut, isolating Siberia logistically from Russia proper.  (Maybe Russia can tow their aircraft carrier into position!  Hell maybe the russian navy is good in the Aral Sea).

3.  putin has managed to kill many of the men in ethnic areas of the federation (lots of women now without mates)

4.  Mineral resources would of course be great

5.  Perhaps most importantly, is anyone in the world going to be in a hurry to condemn China for screwing putin?  I doubt it, and while long term this will represent a problem, for now, he'd be likely to get away with it.  

 

 

[statsman 5,423]

Plus, Jinping is kind of a nationalist with an eye to relitigating historic claims on territory, too. 

[Bevo 13,526]

7 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Strong man 101, shit's bad in your country, grab a quick military victory.  (Make no mistake, shit's pretty bad in China on numerous levels - Covid, real estate bubble (the big problem), aging population, no women, the list goes on.).  I fully believe Xi was going to invade Taiwan until putin said hold my beer.  Then he got to see how shitty the designs of the equipment China primarily copied for their military performed in the field and he was wise enough to nix that.  But he still needs a win, and Siberia makes a lot of sense.

1.  We know that the russian military is degraded at a significant level.  We also know that they have been moving arctic equipment into the field of combat, at least some of it from Siberia.  

2.  We know the russian military is hopelessly tied to logistics via rail.  There are several extremely large bridges on the trans Siberian railroad that could easily be cut, isolating Siberia logistically from Russia proper.  (Maybe Russia can tow their aircraft carrier into position!  Hell maybe the russian navy is good in the Aral Sea).

3.  putin has managed to kill many of the men in ethnic areas of the federation (lots of women now without mates)

4.  Mineral resources would of course be great

5.  Perhaps most importantly, is anyone in the world going to be in a hurry to condemn China for screwing putin?  I doubt it, and while long term this will represent a problem, for now, he'd be likely to get away with it.  

 

 

Russia has nuclear weapons. China wouldn't directly invade unless Russia was in anarchy.

[BamaATL 16,592]

Just now, Bevo said:

Russia has nuclear weapons. China wouldn't directly invade unless Russia was in anarchy.

I got $5 on the money line for that happening in the next year or so.  

[Bevo 13,526]

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I got $5 on the money line for that happening in the next year or so.  

That's too rich for my blood. I'm out.

[Telegraph_it 3,354]

Well Turkey we would love to give you aid but you see there is this thing with Sweden and Finland… 

[BamaATL 16,592]

2 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Well Turkey we would love to give you aid but you see there is this thing with Sweden and Finland… 

7.8 is probably pretty serious.

[Schulz2.0 28,767]

21 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I got $5 on the money line for that happening in the next year or so.  

China wants to fuck up their cheap connection for energy and food? Seems very risky under the circumstances.

[Parliament 14,133]

But did he die?

[Brisketexan 104,585]

China wants to fuck up their cheap connection for energy and food? Seems very risky under the circumstances.

Why pay for what you can just take?

[Gatorubet 30,088]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

China wants to fuck up their cheap connection for energy and food? Seems very risky under the circumstances.

Better to give Russia some small volume military aid while raping/undercutting their normal petro & mineral pricing.  Weird, but I think America and China are fine with a drawn-out, fuck Russia’s military for decades proxy war, with China happy to help extend it if it weakens Putin to the point China can grab more Siberian assets, either by demanding cripplingly cheap prices for some time-  or (much slighter chance IMO) a land grab.   

My dream scenario is that after a decade or two of Russians eating cabbage and rats in the dark and cold like North Koreans, that Russia agrees to join the world and have reparations ended and sanctions lifted in exchange for giving up their nukes.  Like a dysfunctional alcoholic, Russia needs to find rock bottom before it accepts change. 

 

[Gatorubet 30,088]

Not only did my dad drive his tank ‘Blondie’ from France through Belgium and the Rhineland and eventually into Czechoslovakia where he parked it, this American patriot also did his best to improve German-American relations after the war ended, and he was on occupation duty.  See here a photo of his trust building exercise with a rude, blonde Fräulein.

I am here to tell my Surly brothers and sisters that I will honor my father’s memory and also seek to improve relationships with young Russian women after Putin‘s defeat.

[956 Worldwide 34,428]

7 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Camel, like most of the world, is tired of Russian bullshit. I am team Camel. 

 

Didn’t know @Nivek was Russian. 

[BamaATL 16,592]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Why pay for what you can just take?

Especially if you think you can take it with only firing a few cruise missiles into rail bridges.  I suspect russians caught behind that line would surrender without much of a fight.  Would it be a gamble that putin wouldn't fire nukes, sure.  If it's done under the guise that China is simply retaking their territorial demands, doesn't that sound familiar?  

[Gatorubet 30,088]

6 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

 If it's done under the guise that China is simply retaking their territorial demands, doesn't that sound familiar?  

Yea, just return to the good old days of bowing your knee to your Mongol Overlords. 

[InkaUtexas 25,506]

Nice..... 

 

[InkaUtexas 25,506]

These dudes are badass. 

 

[tx 3 putt 76,345]

5 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

[AUS-97HORN 11,673]

6 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

These dudes are badass. 

 

now I totally, TOTALLY get the underlying issue that as a whole, human beings absolutely fear change.   we only want to stay where we feel comfortable.  which is why so many people that grow up in small towns and villages never leave the town other than a day visit or 2 to the nearest "city"

 

But Jesus Christ Bakhumt people, your city is in the middle of a fucking warzone, you have been shelled and shot at CONSTANTLY for at least the last 3 months, and definately under military occupation for almost a full year.  You have been hiding in your basements for months on end, shitting in the corner of the basement because its literally too dangerous to have your ass anywhere above ground.

 

after months of that, when your own countrymen tell you they will escort you out of the warzone where your kids are gonna at least be safe from random bullets flying and mostly safe from random explosions going off that can kill you....  and despite all that, these crazy fucks keep refusing to leave the city

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4,968]

On 2/4/2023 at 12:06 PM, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Can we stop saying Turkiye?

I think we should start calling it Chicken.

[Schulz2.0 28,767]

 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,809]

28 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

I think we should start calling it Jerk Chicken.

Fixed it for earthquake.

[956 Worldwide 34,428]

Important and insightful thread by the always informed Michael Kofman looking forward into spring and summer.

 

[MillerEP 30,339]