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Русский корабль - иди нахуй

Eastwood

By Eastwood
in Daily Texan

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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Argentina has some very strange immigration patterns when you cross reference war activity with it

Not even close to the most bizarre Russia-Argentina story. That belongs to the Russian Embassy cocaine smuggling case that got nearly tied up with no diplomats going to jail. Some loose access controls at that compound, I guess. 
 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/20/four-jailed-for-trying-to-smuggle-cocaine-through-russias-argentine-embassy

Edited by 956 Worldwide
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89657

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Feels like we've seen a lot more precision artillery recently

Yep, feels like we are seeing a lot more extremely accurate artillery fire.

I'm sure some OSINT folks are tracking this stuff with spreadsheets, but feels like we've seen a lot more Russian dead in the past week or so.

Also, Ukraine using drones to drop CS grenades to smoke them out of bunkers and then dropping a grenade on them when they come out.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105119

Posted
Posted
If Ukraine takes Melitopol then Crimea and Kherson are cut off and all Russians there will be trapped. It effectively ends the war.
Thats why everyone questions all of the resources being sent to Bakhmut - Russia needs those troops to defend and prevent this.

If the Ukrainians can pull that off, great…but they need to not let too many of the Russians in Crimea retreat via surrender. They need to kill them. Most of them.
Russia needs to be left unable to wage offensive war for a generation.
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atomheartbevo

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Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Thats why everyone questions all of the resources being sent to Bakhmut - Russia needs those troops to defend and prevent this.

That's exactly why Bakhmut has bugged me in regard to the Russians throwing everything at it, including the kitchen sink - if Ukraine got a breakthrough around Melitopol or down into Kherson, the Russians would struggle moving troops from Bakhmut to those areas, because they'd be putting those troops under Ukrainian artillery at some point in trying to get them down there (or taking a crazy-long way around through Crimea).

But if we just assume that the Russians are dumbasses and can't actually plan anything out strategically, it makes sense.

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The Dog

The Dog 44041

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


If the Ukrainians can pull that off, great…but they need to not let too many of the Russians in Crimea retreat via surrender. They need to kill them. Most of them.
Russia needs to be left unable to wage offensive war for a generation.

If they get to the coast then the Kerch bridge will be under HIMARS control.

Ivan won’t be able to retreat anywhere.

You may get your wish.

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Post Oak

Post Oak 20213

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, The Dog said:

If Ukraine takes Melitopol then Crimea and Kherson are cut off and all Russians there will be trapped. It effectively ends the war.

Thats why everyone questions all of the resources being sent to Bakhmut - Russia needs those troops to defend and prevent this.

I wish I believed this was true but I don't.

Putin will continue to throw bodies at Ukraine because

1. He doesn't care about their lives.

2. He can't lose and survive. 

I'm reminded of Napoleon.

You cannot stop me; I spend thirty thousand men a month.

I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30233

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Orange&White said:

That seems strange. Is Simonyan laying the groundwork for a withdrawal/defeat?

If every time those assholes said, “We are fighting all of NATO” I took a shot, I’d be drunk at the end of every show.

Essentially, Russia-Aggy is saying they would’ve won if the referees had not interfered.   They are establishing the party line on the approved excuse. 

The next message will be that next year after all the new recruits (mobilized) arrive, they will win the world domination championship. Again, if the referees don’t cheat them.. 

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27598

Posted
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They dig 16 holes a day in the cemetery.… They bury them day and night,” said Andrei, a Bakuskaya resident whose last name RFE/RL has withheld. “There was nowhere to bury them [in the village or neighboring areas], so the Wagner [fighters] were given a separate cemetery.”

An RFE/RL analysis done by cross-checking the names and birth dates of the deceased with online court databases also found that an overwhelming majority of those buried in the cemetery had been convicted of violent crimes.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-wagner-mercenaries-special-cemeteries-growing-ukraine-deaths/32266836.html

Radio Free Europe 

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Gengs1

Gengs1 2583

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I was unfamiliar with Emma Ashford prior to this, apparently she is involved with several think tanks in DC and Georgetown faculty.  She is dumber than a sack of hammers.  

All this dumb talk about escalations, so Russia can do anything they want and if USA supports Ukraine they are escalating the situation, who comes up with this dumb shit. So what; what Russian gonna do about it?

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

All this dumb talk about escalations, so Russia can do anything they want and if USA supports Ukraine they are escalating the situation, who comes up with this dumb shit. So what; what Russian gonna do about it?

That is a fair point and one I agree with.  The part that's beyond fucking stupid is that we sent them GPS precision guided munitions.  Last I checked, Ukraine doesn't have their own satellite constellation.  How the fuck did you think they were using these?  

 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31457

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

That is a fair point and one I agree with.  The part that's beyond fucking stupid is that we sent them GPS precision guided munitions.  Last I checked, Ukraine doesn't have their own satellite constellation.  How the fuck did you think they were using these?  

 

They don't need their own GPS constellation.  Russian jamming is not 100% effective and GPS weapons are designed to operate in a degraded environment.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89657

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

All this dumb talk about escalations, so Russia can do anything they want and if USA supports Ukraine they are escalating the situation, who comes up with this dumb shit. So what; what Russian gonna do about it?

Russia won't escalate shit.  Hell, Russia officially and openly blamed England for blowing up the Nordstream pipeline.

For some strange reason, Russia didn't consider another country blowing up its property in international waters important enough to act militarily on it.

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The Dog

The Dog 44041

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Post Oak said:

I wish I believed this was true but I don't.

Putin will continue to throw bodies at Ukraine because

1. He doesn't care about their lives.

2. He can't lose and survive. 

I'm reminded of Napoleon.

You cannot stop me; I spend thirty thousand men a month.

I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

Here's how I see this ending:

If the Ukrainians are able to get to Melitopol they will be able to completely isolate the Russian forces that are left in the Kherson region and in Crimea. Since the Kerch bridge is now in HIMARS range they can no longer supply both their troops and their civilians in those areas. They will be trapped with no hope of supply or reinforcement. Ivan will either surrender, be slaughtered, or starve. In all cases both the Kherson region and Crimea will be back with Ukraine. Likely they will also retake Mariupol as it's right there. This gives Ukraine all of their Black Sea territory back along with Crimea.

That leaves the Donbas region, which is at best a stalemate. 

At this point I expect there to be enormous international pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to cease hostilities with Russia having minimal gains in the Donbas and Ukraine retaking all of the Black Sea ports and Crimea.

This will be spun as a "win" at home by Russia as they "secured the Donbas" and they will simply ignore the massive loss of Crimea. 

If this occurs then it's not about whether or not Russia loses but how much they want to lose. They can either consolidate their gains in the east or get routed once the Ukrainian forces that liberated the south and Crimea are brought to bear in the Donbas.

That's what I meant by "it ends the war." If Ukraine is able to do this then it's not a question of it being over but how Russia wants it to end and how much of a loss they are willing to take.

Keep in mind none of this has occurred yet. But if it does that is my amateur take.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89657

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, The Dog said:

This will be spun as a "win" at home by Russia as they "secured the Donbas" and they will simply ignore the massive loss of Crimea. 

They can't.  It's a warm water port for Russia.  It's their only warm water port.  And it controls a shitload of natural resources (oil and gas). But mainly it's their only warm water port.

And it's a huge psychological blow - this ain't driving the Russians back from Kyiv, or driving them out of Kharkiv or Kherson.

I don't think they'll do nukes, but I would see them giving up Donbas before they gave up Crimea.

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The Dog

The Dog 44041

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They can't.  It's a warm water port for Russia.  It's their only warm water port.  And it controls a shitload of natural resources (oil and gas). But mainly it's their only warm water port.

And it's a huge psychological blow - this ain't driving the Russians back from Kyiv, or driving them out of Kharkiv or Kherson.

I don't think they'll do nukes, but I would see them giving up Donbas before they gave up Crimea.

they have already made their choice. 

Donbas > Crimea

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atomheartbevo

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Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, The Dog said:

they have already made their choice. 

Donbas > Crimea

Crimea is more important to the national security of Russia.  Without a warm water port, they are in trouble part of the year, especially given how much their ships break down.  And while they will eventually get a warm water port in the north, it'll take more warming/ice melting before that happens.

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