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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

Apparently that affects Zaporizhzhia's cooling.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhovka_Reservoir

Quote

It is used mainly to supply hydroelectric stations, the Krasnoznamianka Irrigation System, the Kakhovka Irrigation System, industrial plants such as the 5.7 GW Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, freshwater fish farms, the North Crimean Canal and the Dnieper–Kryvyi Rih Canal.[2] Its creation formed a deep-water route for ships to sail up the Dnieper.

 

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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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KYHorn

KYHorn 16808

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, The Dog said:

Here's how I see this ending

 

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

They can't.  It's a warm water port for Russia.  It's their only warm water port.  And it controls a shitload of natural resources (oil and gas). But mainly it's their only warm water port.

And it's a huge psychological blow - this ain't driving the Russians back from Kyiv, or driving them out of Kharkiv or Kherson.

I don't think they'll do nukes, but I would see them giving up Donbas before they gave up Crimea.

I think/hope that if they lose Crimea through it being cutoff, there will be some form of leadership change.

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17503

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

video needs curb your enthusiasm theme

Yakkity Sax would work as well.

If the Russians are failing this badly in their offensive operations, I wonder just how thin the lines have to be that they pulled meat from to make it work.  I hear all this about mobiks filling in the lines, but I also see the refusnik stuff above (which I don't entirely believe even though I want to) and its very hard to figure out what's what.  My general sense continues to be that Russia is clearly failing, but hard to know whether they are weak enough to topple under the pressure of a Ukrainian offensive it the spring.  

 

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The Dog

The Dog 43771

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Crimea is more important to the national security of Russia.  Without a warm water port, they are in trouble part of the year, especially given how much their ships break down.  And while they will eventually get a warm water port in the north, it'll take more warming/ice melting before that happens.

I agree with you but Putin doesn’t for whatever reason.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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Posted

It’s impossible for me to see this ending without it escalating.  There is no way Russia will ever agree to a negotiated peace that doesn’t include them keeping Donbas/Crimea and there’s no way Ukraine/NATO will agree to giving up Donbas.  NATO is either going to eventually abandon Ukraine which means much higher odds of conflict with Russia later since there’s very little chance Russia stops at Ukraine for good, or NATO is going to put Russia into submission which means very high likelihood of nuclear exchange.  This is bad.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

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Posted
12 hours ago, The Dog said:

Here's how I see this ending:

If the Ukrainians are able to get to Melitopol they will be able to completely isolate the Russian forces that are left in the Kherson region and in Crimea. Since the Kerch bridge is now in HIMARS range they can no longer supply both their troops and their civilians in those areas. They will be trapped with no hope of supply or reinforcement. Ivan will either surrender, be slaughtered, or starve. In all cases both the Kherson region and Crimea will be back with Ukraine. Likely they will also retake Mariupol as it's right there. This gives Ukraine all of their Black Sea territory back along with Crimea.

That leaves the Donbas region, which is at best a stalemate. 

At this point I expect there to be enormous international pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to cease hostilities with Russia having minimal gains in the Donbas and Ukraine retaking all of the Black Sea ports and Crimea.

This will be spun as a "win" at home by Russia as they "secured the Donbas" and they will simply ignore the massive loss of Crimea. 

If this occurs then it's not about whether or not Russia loses but how much they want to lose. They can either consolidate their gains in the east or get routed once the Ukrainian forces that liberated the south and Crimea are brought to bear in the Donbas.

That's what I meant by "it ends the war." If Ukraine is able to do this then it's not a question of it being over but how Russia wants it to end and how much of a loss they are willing to take.

Keep in mind none of this has occurred yet. But if it does that is my amateur take.

All of this is certainly possible, but I don't think how it will play out for a few reasons.  

1.  Putin can ill afford to lose Crimea, really under any circumstance.  Losing Crimea = certain death for him.  He won't give that back under any circumstance and will have his people fight to the death to keep it.  I don't think there is any level of propaganda he could use to justify it's loss.  If there is a hill to die on for him, it's Crimea.  

2.  In so far as the Donbas is concerned, he could easily make the propagandized claim that it has been de-nazied and leave.  The general Russian population could be convinced of this and it could be sold as a security victory/mission accomplished bullshit.  They'd buy it.  That having been said, he's shown absolutely no interest in doing so thus far, and there is nothing that indicates he has any intention of changing his mind.  

3.  I do think Melitopol is Ukraine's next move, which if successful will further isolate Crimea and will allow the retaking of all of Kherson Oblast, as well as Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including Mariupol.  While this would reestablish pre 2022 invasion territory, if you are Ukraine, how could you agree to stop there?  You would have them on the run and the goal of reestablishing pre 2014 borders would be within site.  Given the horror that the Ukrainian people have been subjected to, the human loss, and all the other sacrifices made, how could you justify stopping when you would be that close to total victory?  I think you are correct in asserting that international pressure will be brought to bear to get this to stop at the point, if I am Ukrainian, I'm not listening.  I'd press on as long as possible to reclaim what is rightly theirs.

 

I keep seeing where the Russian propagandist are saying that we (the west,and they specifically point out the US) are after the destruction of them and their culture.  I'd argue that at this point, we should be after the destruction of their way of life.  I can appreciate the artistry and ability of some of the things done in Russia, and I have no desire to have any of that destroyed.  But in so far as the destruction of their elite Russian beliefs, I'm all for it.  At this point, it seems this is a society in need of post ww2 German style humility, to the point of it being so humbling that the idea of creating an offensive force is blasphemy in their society.   The only way this happens is with a complete dismantling of their current style of life and destruction of the propaganda machine that feeds it.  For things to really change, a complete humiliation on a battlefield isn't enough, a complete dismantling of their current society is necessary.  Otherwise, see you in a few years dealing with this same sort of crap, in Ukraine or somewhere else they think they can easily terrorize and get away with it. 

How do we do this, I don't know.  What I do know, is that if we stop at half measures on this, we will still have the same problem and be back at square one before you know it.  

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104465

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

But in so far as the destruction of their elite Russian beliefs, I'm all for it.  At this point, it seems this is a society in need of post ww2 German style humility, to the point of it being so humbling that the idea of creating an offensive force is blasphemy in their society.   The only way this happens is with a complete dismantling of their current style of life and destruction of the propaganda machine that feeds it.  For things to really change, a complete humiliation on a battlefield isn't enough, a complete dismantling of their current society is necessary.  Otherwise, see you in a few years dealing with this same sort of crap, in Ukraine or somewhere else they think they can easily terrorize and get away with it. 

How do we do this, I don't know.  What I do know, is that if we stop at half measures on this, we will still have the same problem and be back at square one before you know it.  

This is some hard truth.

Russia has demonstrated in reality, not in the hypothetical "well, they use bellicose rhetoric, but that's not really who they are" way, that it is an oppressive militaristic regime and culture that worships at the altars of war and violent imperial expansion.

We dealt with this 80 years ago in Germany and Japan.  The only way to provide for a future where Russia isn't an ever-present threat to do the exact same shit again is to give Russia the same treatment.  Russia -- a nuclear power -- must be completely and totally defeated, and left unable to fight any offensive war.  Getting there....is gonna be tricky as fuck.

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

It’s impossible for me to see this ending without it escalating.  There is no way Russia will ever agree to a negotiated peace that doesn’t include them keeping Donbas/Crimea and there’s no way Ukraine/NATO will agree to giving up Donbas.  NATO is either going to eventually abandon Ukraine which means much higher odds of conflict with Russia later since there’s very little chance Russia stops at Ukraine for good, or NATO is going to put Russia into submission which means very high likelihood of nuclear exchange.  This is bad.

This is where I’m at.

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1622

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, The Dog said:

At this point I expect there to be enormous international pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to cease hostilities with Russia having minimal gains in the Donbas and Ukraine retaking all of the Black Sea ports and Crimea.

I think if there was a chance for ceasing hostilities in that first month or so there absolutely would have been international pressure for Ukraine to give us territory.  The price of Peace.    At this point I think we are way past that.  Even if some fuck-stick US politicians want to stay on Team-Russia and push for a 'fair' settlement, the majority of the world correctly (IMHO) sees that as a bad deal in the long run. 

This ends with Ukraine getting all their territory, including Crimea, or a nuclear blast.  At this point, I really don't see a path where Russia keeps any of it. 

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11667

Posted
Posted
Just now, 0xdeadbeef said:

I think if there was a chance for ceasing hostilities in that first month or so there absolutely would have been international pressure for Ukraine to give us territory.  The price of Peace.    At this point I think we are way past that.  Even if some fuck-stick US politicians want to stay on Team-Russia and push for a 'fair' settlement, the majority of the world correctly (IMHO) sees that as a bad deal in the long run. 

This ends with Ukraine getting all their territory, including Crimea, or a nuclear blast.  At this point, I really don't see a path where Russia keeps any of it. 

Exactly the reaction to the squad and gosar a couple months ago. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Thinking about how this ends is terrifying. I just don’t see a scenario where it ends without western forces involved.

Why?  Russia can't even get out of Donbas/Crimea at this point. 

Shit, they are literally throwing troops at the Ukrainians without benefit of tanks or APCs/IFVs covering them.  That's some fucking WWII shit when Japan and German were losing.  All that's left is for Putin to round up 15 and 16 year olds and send them to Ukraine.

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

It’s impossible for me to see this ending without it escalating.  There is no way Russia will ever agree to a negotiated peace that doesn’t include them keeping Donbas/Crimea and there’s no way Ukraine/NATO will agree to giving up Donbas.  NATO is either going to eventually abandon Ukraine which means much higher odds of conflict with Russia later since there’s very little chance Russia stops at Ukraine for good, or NATO is going to put Russia into submission which means very high likelihood of nuclear exchange.  This is bad.

See above.  Russia has either culminated militarily in the Donbas region, or is about to.

Russia can refuse to give them up, but a bunch of talking heads on TV vowing not to give it up is far different from Russian troops being slaughtered and pushed back.  And a shitload of the major Western gear hasn't even arrived yet.

This really does feel like the analysts were right about Ukraine has been using Bakhmut, etc. against Russia and just destroying their troops and their tanks.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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Posted
5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Why?  Russia can't even get out of Donbas/Crimea at this point. 

Shit, they are literally throwing troops at the Ukrainians without benefit of tanks or APCs/IFVs covering them.  That's some fucking WWII shit when Japan and German were losing.  All that's left is for Putin to round up 15 and 16 year olds and send them to Ukraine.

See above.  Russia has either culminated militarily in the Donbas region, or is about to.

Russia can refuse to give them up, but a bunch of talking heads on TV vowing not to give it up is far different from Russian troops being slaughtered and pushed back.  And a shitload of the major Western gear hasn't even arrived yet.

This really does feel like the analysts were right about Ukraine has been using Bakhmut, etc. against Russia and just destroying their troops and their tanks.

What do you think happens when it becomes clear that Russia will be defeated?  Putin just says “bummer, ok fall back” and everybody just accepts peace?  Unless you think Putin will be taken out by rational, western-friendly Russians before then, how do you suppose Putin reacts to his ultimate defeat?

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

What do you think happens when it becomes clear that Russia will be defeated?  Putin just says “bummer, ok fall back” and everybody just accepts peace?  Unless you think Putin will be taken out by rational, western-friendly Russians before then, how do you suppose Putin reacts to his ultimate defeat?

He doesn't have a say in the matter at this point.  We know he won't use nukes, he can't keep his troops supplied, he is sending soldiers into a meat grinder without air, tank or IFV/APC coverage.

Is he going to fart in their general direction?

Edit:  There's only so many bodies he can throw at Ukraine before it becomes untenable for him, either because too many are dying and the people at home are pissed, or literally because he's out of bodies to throw at them.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Why?  Russia can't even get out of Donbas/Crimea at this point. 

Shit, they are literally throwing troops at the Ukrainians without benefit of tanks or APCs/IFVs covering them.  That's some fucking WWII shit when Japan and German were losing.  All that's left is for Putin to round up 15 and 16 year olds and send them to Ukraine.

See above.  Russia has either culminated militarily in the Donbas region, or is about to.

Russia can refuse to give them up, but a bunch of talking heads on TV vowing not to give it up is far different from Russian troops being slaughtered and pushed back.  And a shitload of the major Western gear hasn't even arrived yet.

This really does feel like the analysts were right about Ukraine has been using Bakhmut, etc. against Russia and just destroying their troops and their tanks.

You’ve been beating the “chill, this is almost over” drum for awhile now.

I think you’re incredibly naive.

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Bevo

Bevo 13493

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

They don’t have to be rational or western-friendly. They will still take him out. Nukes ensure no more Russia. 

Yes, but I don't know how that happens. If Russia uses tactical nukes, what's our response? If we stop helping Ukraine, it means dumbass countries like Iran and North Korea become emboldened. So that isn't an option. If we, NATO, go in directly, we are directly threatening Russia's existence and Russia will use nukes on the West. So that is a no go as well. So about the only option is a tactical strike directly on Putin and immediate negotiations on a cease fire/de-escalation.

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10898

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Yes, but I don't know how that happens. If Russia uses tactical nukes, what's our response? If we stop helping Ukraine, it means dumbass countries like Iran and North Korea become emboldened. So that isn't an option. If we, NATO, go in directly, we are directly threatening Russia's existence and Russia will use nukes on the West. So that is a no go as well. So about the only option is a tactical strike directly on Putin and immediate negotiations on a cease fire/de-escalation.

You could send NATO missiles/planes/etc into Ukraine and have them cripple Russia's forces in Ukraine in less than a day or so. Obviously Russia could then escalate, but how would they effectively without nuking NATO itself?

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bolverk

bolverk 29360

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

The war ends when Putin needs more Russian soldiers than he has to keep other Russians in line.

Long-term, I think this is the correct answer, but I'm not willing to get into a pissing match with other posters over it. Taking back Crimea militarily seems like a bitch though. That little isthmus connecting it to the mainland is only 5-10 miles wide. You've got to think that's going to be a kill zone from hell by now with heavy fortifications. And aren't large parts of Crimea mountainous? It seems like all of Crimea could be a giant fortress for the Russians.

Obviously, you want to cut off supplies by destroying the bridge, but can't their forces get at least some via shipping routes? Or, at least, they might have giant stores of supplies there already. I guess Ukraine could also cut off the canal shipping water from the Kakhova dam. Speaking of which, what exactly is going on there? If memory serves the Ukrainians hold one side and the Russians the other. I guess there must be some sort of mutual understanding and neither side is willing to blow it up.

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Bevo

Bevo 13493

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SimonBolivar said:

You could send NATO missiles/planes/etc into Ukraine and have them cripple Russia's forces in Ukraine in less than a day or so. Obviously Russia could then escalate, but how would they effectively without nuking NATO itself?

I'm not sure that is totally true. Planes for sure with maybe 1000 sorties a day but missiles gets a little crazy if we are just targeting troops and weapons inside Ukraine. Are we going to fire a bunch of cruise missiles at troops? That is a giant waste of resources. Most of the infrastructure is in Russia so for missiles to work, we would need to aim them into Russia. And targeting Russia will lead us towards nuclear. Tanks may be an option, but bringing a lot of NATO troops into an area that is using tactical nukes isn't a great idea. Will planes alone lead to a total annihilation of Russian troops in Ukraine in a few days? Maybe if they are out in the open and not in Ukraine cities such as Mariupol. One thing is a given, though. Russia loses if tactical nukes are used. I'm just not sure how that happens.

Edited by Bevo
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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27375

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I'm not sure that is totally true. Planes for sure with maybe 1000 sorties a day but missiles gets a little crazy if we are just targeting troops and weapons inside Ukraine. Are we going to fire a bunch of cruise missiles at troops? That is a giant waste of resources. Most of the infrastructure is in Russia so for missiles to work, we would need to aim them into Russia. And targeting Russia will lead us towards nuclear. Tanks may be an option, but bringing a lot of NATO troops into an area that is using tactical nukes isn't a great idea. Will planes alone lead to a total annihilation of Russian troops in Ukraine in a few days? Maybe if they are out in the open and not in Ukraine cities such as Mariupol. One thing is a given, though. Russia loses if tactical nukes are used. I'm just not sure how that happens.

If we are flying sorties it means we have established air superiority. Which means

 

image.gif.0051a8436d7c47637969b2ac9c93f240.gif

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MissingInAction

MissingInAction 24765

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

You need a lot more men than that to beat a couple modern machine guns. 

I saw an old German MG-42 in one video. American GIs called them buzzsaws in WW2 because of the sound and absolute murder they wrought on the open field. 

Edited by MissingInAction
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Pods

Pods 7522

Posted
Posted

Y'all seriously think this fucking coward would drop a nuke? He is clearly terrified of death. He won't let anyone else get within 15 feet of him. 

image.thumb.png.9020ed21c271eb745fa45163ee98a140.pngimage.thumb.png.2197c2252b24bc46a270ff329c062c85.pngimage.thumb.png.d03b3486cdc93ed7da39f79b3de127d6.png

He drops a nuke, his allies are all gone and he's a dead man walking. He will not risk that escalation, which results in him personally being targeted. 

If he was going to drop a nuke, he would have done it on any one of his myriad of bluffs and it would have been when such a decision could have delivered a tactical win. Those days are long gone.

When the stupid motherfucker finally realizes he has no chance to hold his gains, he'll do what gives him the best chance of survival. He'll declare victory and retreat to his bunker. 

 

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