Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[JesusSweatDuck 17780]

55 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Damn

After a long look down the abyss of nuclear apocalypse y'all need an antidepressant.

Here. You can't understand a word she says, but you are going to have a hard time not grinning.

 

That little girl is precious.  

[Schulz2.0 28748]

9 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I think it was one of Perun's slideshows that talked about how we measure Shoigu with some of the wrong metrics. Since he's in charge of the military, we measure him by his effectiveness at running the military, when in many ways he should be measured by his effectiveness in staying in power with no real military experience while his rivals exit out windows. 

In other words, people keep screaming about his incompetence, but he's plenty competent. The problem is that the Russian system rewards competence in areas that are not actually reflected in productivity or effectiveness. 

He's unwavering in his loyalty to Putin. That's his main qualification and the only important one for the job.

[atomheartbevo 89353]

3 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

We are seeing in real time the ROI on the time and money spent on training and supporting the modern, western warfighter.  The time and money spent to help them facilitate the mindset and autonomy to be non-linear thinkers, problem solvers, and proactive decision makers.

This was the central tenet Ambrose was trying to get across in Saving Private Ryan and BOB.  It takes decades and generations to engender this.  

This.  That convoy was the perfect summary of everything wrong with the Russian military as a whole.

American/Brit/French/etc. NCOs and junior officers would have been scrounging up food and fuel if things get dicey.  They wouldn't have given up and just started walking to the rear.  They sure as hell wouldn't have bunched up their trucks like that, and they would not have waited until they ran out of food and fuel before doing something about it - all of those trucks have fuel gauges (well, they are Russian, so maybe not?) and the NCOs and junior officers know the food situation in their companies, platoons, and squads.  

Our logistics folks put on a master class in 1990/1991 with the first Gulf War, and arguably did so again with Afghanistan and Iraq 2003.

[atomheartbevo 89353]

[SL Xpress 7504]

1 minute ago, Schulz2.0 said:

He's unwavering in his loyalty to Putin. That's his main qualification and the only important one for the job.

I'm absolutely sure that's true, but there's more to it than that. You can be unwaveringly loyal but if a rival manages to undercut you in a successful way, you can still find yourself hoisted out a window. Simply chalking it up to unwavering loyalty IMO discounts the man. He's around a lot of ambitious, ruthless men who understand one misstep in the game they're playing means they go from extreme wealth and power to dead in an instant. You can't seem too smart, or too ambitious, or you're dead. You can't seem too incompetent, or you're dead. You have to figure out who to trust, who to scapegoat, and when. It's not actually simple by any means. 

The problem is, being successful in that dynamic is not actually about running an effective department. In fact, it could very well be that a key to Shiogu's life span is that he's looked down upon by other military leaders, which makes him less of a threat to Putin. The last thing they want is Shiogu in charge, and so Putin has Shiogu's loyalty, but he also indirectly has other people's loyalty as well. Which means that Shiogu has to be careful who he makes friends with, as much as who he makes his enemy. 

That was Putin's key to his early political success. He didn't eliminate all his political opponents. He made sure he got rid of the effective ones, so only the ones who wouldn't be taken seriously were left. 

It doesn't really matter. The guy is terrible at his job. Good. But I can't help but be fascinated by the dynamics. My Dad had a phrase he got from W.E. Deming which I then stole from him, "What gets measured gets done." Which is true in the productive sense, but also in the unproductive sense. If you're measuring the wrong things, then that's still what people are going to tend to do. Russia as a country measures the wrong things to be effective in their war against Ukraine. 

In any case, there's a part of me that's impressed by Shiogu. He's got something figured out in a way people around him don't. 

[Brisketexan 104446]

Re the nuke talk, the game theory here is not complex.

At this moment in time, which path creates the greater risk of the use of nuclear weapons at some point in time:

1) do not accede to Russian nuclear blackmail (the risk being that they follow through with their threats in the near-term)

2) accede to Russian nuclear blackmail (the risk being that a) Russia will continue to use nuclear blackmail in the future, eventually using it in a situation where the stakes are even higher and it HAS to follow through, and/or b) rewarding nuclear blackmail encourages any number of other nuclear powers (large and small) to use nuclear blackmail, multiplying the risk)

There is no path that yields "no risk of the use of nuclear weapons."   Both options have risk, meaning both are bad.  It all comes back to Russia being a piece of dick, and we're long past the point of needing to stop that particular piece of dick in its tracks.

[MillerEP 30329]

 

[SL Xpress 7504]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Re the nuke talk, the game theory here is not complex.

At this moment in time, which path creates the greater risk of the use of nuclear weapons at some point in time:

1) do not accede to Russian nuclear blackmail (the risk being that they follow through with their threats in the near-term)

2) accede to Russian nuclear blackmail (the risk being that a) Russia will continue to use nuclear blackmail in the future, eventually using it in a situation where the stakes are even higher and it HAS to follow through, and/or b) rewarding nuclear blackmail encourages any number of other nuclear powers (large and small) to use nuclear blackmail, multiplying the risk)

There is no path that yields "no risk of the use of nuclear weapons."   Both options have risk, meaning both are bad.  It all comes back to Russia being a piece of dick, and we're long past the point of needing to stop that particular piece of dick in its tracks.

I absolutely agree, but there's still some nuance. 

For example, I don't think it makes sense for the US to start firing missiles into Russian forces around Belgorod. That seems like a dumb risk. I don't think it makes sense to send in NATO pilots to create a no fly zone. I don't think it makes sense to blockade shipping traffic and Russian naval ships from entering and exiting ports.

The big one right now, as evidenced by Blinken's recent comments, is Ukraine's ability to retake Crimea, which I hope we support. Sevastopol is the single biggest asset in the entire occupied area, with very real and historic/mythical meaning for both sides. That was the primary reason for the taking of Crimea in the first place, and when that was successfully prosecuted with no shots fired and no real consequences from the west, led to the Russian special forces helping to create the separation of the Donbas region.

It's unclear to me if Ukraine can take Melitopol, but if it can, and then hold it, it will put tremendous pressure on all Russian forces in Crimea and the Dnipro River's left bank. I'd love to see that happen, and for it to succeed to the point Crimea is surrendered to Ukraine. But does the US stop supporting Ukraine under those conditions in fear of a nuclear war? Does Putin finally blow a gasket and do something stupid and rash because he's dying anyway? I mean, in truth, I want to find out - specifically because of your reasoning - but I'd really really really prefer the answer be Putin gets sulky and pouty...or dead...rather than he gets angry enough to unleash a nuclear attack. 

[BamaATL 16592]

Russia now intends to conduct more aviation strikes with their patented jack of all trades master of none air force.  I can only imagine they have been rushing pilots thru training as well.  

 

 

[Brisketexan 104446]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Russia now intends to conduct more aviation strikes with their patented jack of all trades master of none air force.  I can only imagine they have been rushing pilots thru training as well.  

 

 

Well, Ukraine has already done the West a tremendous favor by depleting the shit out of Russia's armored vehicle stock.  Might as well give us the cherry on top of wiping out a shitload of their aircraft as well.  

[SL Xpress 7504]

7 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Russia now intends to conduct more aviation strikes with their patented jack of all trades master of none air force.  I can only imagine they have been rushing pilots thru training as well.  

 

 

I keep getting worried that things aren't going to go the way I want them to, and then Russia comes through in the clutch and fucks everything up. 

It makes no sense to massively deploy the air force if they didn't previously. I've posted about the reports that they've amassed a considerable part of their fixed and rotary wing aircraft closer to the border. But I have no confidence in Russia's ability to coordinate effective air strikes, either alongside their ground forces or simply with their other attack craft. About the only thing I get concerned about is a lack of ammunition for whatever S-300s and other anti air systems Ukraine possesses, before the Western anti air come on line. 

At this point there's a part of me that even questions how much of the air force they actually deploy. 

The official soundtrack for the Russian military is the Benny Hill theme. 

[BabaYaga 15202]

45 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This.  That convoy was the perfect summary of everything wrong with the Russian military as a whole.

American/Brit/French/etc. NCOs and junior officers would have been scrounging up food and fuel if things get dicey.  They wouldn't have given up and just started walking to the rear.  They sure as hell wouldn't have bunched up their trucks like that, and they would not have waited until they ran out of food and fuel before doing something about it - all of those trucks have fuel gauges (well, they are Russian, so maybe not?) and the NCOs and junior officers know the food situation in their companies, platoons, and squads.  

Our logistics folks put on a master class in 1990/1991 with the first Gulf War, and arguably did so again with Afghanistan and Iraq 2003.

That gets to the resources spent to train up the modern western warfighter.  It's never about the material.  Arguably the best advantage American ninjas in the GWOT have/had (besides air support) were comms and nods.  Not revolutionary in any capacity.  What they could do is outthink and out execute just about anyone they faced.  

My best friend was a tanker in the 24th mechanized.  Abrams driver.  His TC (tank commander) was with the 24th when they arrived for GW1.  They were told in no uncertain terms if Saddam attacks "we" are the speedbump to try and slow them down.  It was that dire early on.  With bad leadership and bad planning it really could have been the meat-grinder the media made it out to be.  Had they rolled headfirst into the prepared Iraqi defenses, losses would mount.  So what did they do.....they read, studied, and adapted. 

[Gatorubet 30052]

4 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I keep getting worried that things aren't going to go the way I want them to, and then Russia comes through in the clutch and fucks everything up. 

It makes no sense to massively deploy the air force if they didn't previously. I've posted about the reports that they've amassed a considerable part of their fixed and rotary wing aircraft closer to the border. But I have no confidence in Russia's ability to coordinate effective air strikes, either alongside their ground forces or simply with their other attack craft. About the only thing I get concerned about is a lack of ammunition for whatever S-300s and other anti air systems Ukraine possesses, before the Western anti air come on line. 

At this point there's a part of me that even questions how much of the air force they actually deploy. 

The official soundtrack for the Russian military is the Benny Hill theme. 

Does anyone have any idea how many qualified Russian pilots existed prior to last year’s invasion (minus the ones dirt napping in Ukraine)?   Will these be trained qualified pilots kept in reserve - or will these include many baby pilots with very few cockpit hours and little or no dogfight or bombing experience?

I have zero facts, but my guess would lean toward the latter.

 

[BabaYaga 15202]

10 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I keep getting worried that things aren't going to go the way I want them to, and then Russia comes through in the clutch and fucks everything up. 

 

Look at the first year of almost every major conflict and draw no conclusions towards what the end of the war looks like.  It's still the 1st quarter

• The Civil War - Confederate victory after victory
• WWI - Initial German success
• WWII - Again, but with Tanks
• The Russia front - Russia losing thousands of miles of territory and hundreds of divisions swallowed up

 

[BamaATL 16592]

32 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, Ukraine has already done the West a tremendous favor by depleting the shit out of Russia's armored vehicle stock.  Might as well give us the cherry on top of wiping out a shitload of their aircraft as well.  

I got $5 on the money line that says russians manage to kill more in friendly fire than anything.  Well, that combined losing a lot of planes.  Also, I'm being their sorties are just as telegraphed as their tank efforts, so its gonna be a turkey shoot.  Happy hunting boys. 

I know this, I sure as hell wouldn't want to be russian tanker, but the life expectancy of a russian pilot may well now be just as bad.  

[Brisketexan 104446]

13 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Look at the first year of almost every major conflict and draw no conclusions towards what the end of the war looks like.  It's still the 1st quarter

• The Civil War - Confederate victory after victory
• WWI - Initial German success
• WWII - Again, but with Tanks
• The Russia front - Russia losing thousands of miles of territory and hundreds of divisions swallowed up

 

Counterpoint....things just move faster now.  The "first quarter" of this war may well have been the first week or so of the war (blitzkrieg, and all that, on a smaller playing field).  Let's not write off the initial Russian "victory."  While they didn't just waltz into Kyiv, they sure as hell captured a lot of territory in the Donbas and up from Crimea.  They have a landbridge between the two.  Those are real gains.  And they got most of them with relatively light casualties.

Now, the defense AFTER that, and the counter-offensives by the UKA....yeah.....those have been brutal for the Russians.  I'd say Q1 went to the Russians -- they didn't run up the score as much as they wanted or expected to, but they scored some real points.  Q2 went to Ukraine, although it wasn't able to really come close to making up the early point differential (Russia still holds a shitload of Ukrainian turf).  I'd say we just started the second half, and Russia is trying to get its offense marching down the field, because a rested Ukraine, with some new players heading for their roster (tanks etc.) is going to get the ball soon.

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I got $5 on the money line that says russians manage to kill more in friendly fire than anything.  Well, that combined losing a lot of planes.  Also, I'm being their sorties are just as telegraphed as their tank efforts, so its gonna be a turkey shoot.  Happy hunting boys. 

I know this, I sure as hell wouldn't want to be russian tanker, but the life expectancy of a russian pilot may well now be just as bad.  

I have a feeling we're going to find out how well all Russian planes perform at treetop level, whether they were designed to operate there or not.  They're gonna do all they can to duck out of MANPADS shooting range.

[dimyh 1874]

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

I think it was one of Perun's slideshows that talked about how we measure Shoigu with some of the wrong metrics. Since he's in charge of the military, we measure him by his effectiveness at running the military, when in many ways he should be measured by his effectiveness in staying in power with no real military experience while his rivals exit out windows. 

In other words, people keep screaming about his incompetence, but he's plenty competent. The problem is that the Russian system rewards competence in areas that are not actually reflected in productivity or effectiveness. 

Yep, for me the most interesting part of this whole conflict is the backdoor dealings in Putin's cabinet. Hopefully a few years after this war is finished and Putin is long buried we get some details what was happening with the internal power struggles. As ruthless and brutal that Putin appears to be, he still hasn't squeezed that iron grip as hard as you expect. Aside from a few Gazprom managers and silvoki heads getting mysteriously ejected from Windows there hasn't been as much turnover as expected. Shoigu appears to have some Greg Davis level of immunity in the Kremlin. I'm extremely curious what dirt he has on Putin to stay in his role for this long. Putin hasn't tried rein in the bickering from Prigozhin or Kadyrov. He has demoted Gerasimov but already reinstated him.

Even the non cabinet stuff has shown some of his weakness. It took some time before he called up for another conscription wave even though it was quite clear more bodies would be needed. Also his political dissidents such as Navalny could only be jailed and not executed (aside from sprinkling some poison in his Underoos). I believe Russia has reinstated the death penalty after the start of the war but Putin still has to maintain a modicum of legal decency and can't just fabricate every malicious desire into existence. Which all indicates to me this guy is scrambling to stay in charge. He has grossly miscalculated this whole affair, found out he's surrounded a bunch of yahoos, and painted himself into a dark corner.

 

 

[BabaYaga 15202]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint....things just move faster now.  The "first quarter" of this war may well have been the first week or so of the war (blitzkrieg, and all that, on a smaller playing field).  Let's not write off the initial Russian "victory."  While they didn't just waltz into Kyiv, they sure as hell captured a lot of territory in the Donbas and up from Crimea.  They have a landbridge between the two.  Those are real gains.  And they got most of them with relatively light casualties.

Now, the defense AFTER that, and the counter-offensives by the UKA....yeah.....those have been brutal for the Russians.  I'd say Q1 went to the Russians -- they didn't run up the score as much as they wanted or expected to, but they scored some real points.  Q2 went to Ukraine, although it wasn't able to really come close to making up the early point differential (Russia still holds a shitload of Ukrainian turf).  I'd say we just started the second half, and Russia is trying to get its offense marching down the field, because a rested Ukraine, with some new players heading for their roster (tanks etc.) is going to get the ball soon.

Not in this war they don't.  You have the UA playing defense and an inept Russian mechanized group trying to slug it out.  Compare that to the early Success of the German blitz or the US forces in GW1.  It's turned into a sparring match of offenses and counter offenses.  The obvious play of the UA is rope-a-dope.  Then when they're ready they'll try to push the Russians out, which will itself be fraught with problems and setbacks.  

All I'm saying is history is a teacher.  Judging the outcome by the events of the first year is a fools game.  

[InkaUtexas 25395]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I have a feeling we're going to find out how well all Russian planes perform at treetop level, whether they were designed to operate there or not.  They're gonna do all they can to duck out of MANPADS shooting range.

They were eaten up in Afghanistan and Syria, forced to go higher where Patriots could make a difference. Here is some analysis on the SU-25 and how it is used. 

 

[InkaUtexas 25395]

We finally get a positive @Brisketexan and everyone is pushing him back onto his ledge..... Damn....  

[Brisketexan 104446]

4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Not in this war they don't.  You have the UA playing defense and an inept Russian mechanized group trying to slug it out.  Compare that to the early Success of the German blitz or the US forces in GW1.  It's turned into a sparring match of offenses and counter offenses.  The obvious play of the UA is rope-a-dope.  Then when they're ready they'll try to push the Russians out, which will itself be fraught with problems and setbacks.  

All I'm saying is history is a teacher.  Judging the outcome by the events of the first year is a fools game.  

What I'm suggesting is that we DID see the "early success of the Russian blitz."  Let's not write off the fact that they functionally waltzed in to capture thousands of square miles of Ukrainian turf.  And if their advance had stopped at what ended up being their relatively long-term line of control, they may have held it (because they wouldn't have lost so many valuable troops and vehicles trying to extend their reach).  What they captured took a week or two.  They didn't take losses in what they captured, they took losses when they tried to capture MORE than that.

I do agree that the UKA play is rope-a-dope, and Russia is playing the dope well.  And yes, advancing is a lot harder than defending, so we'll see how things look when Ukraine tries a really difficult offensive trying to capture a lot of heavily contested soil.

But the point remains: Russia doesn't have another blitzkrieg in them.  They can't capture land more than a few hundred yards at a time.

[Gatorubet 30052]

https://www.businessinsider.com/fighting-in-ukraine-reveals-russian-air-force-fragility-think-tank-2022-12

Trying to answer my own question. I do not vouch for the credibility of the article, but me-likey the content. 

Quote

The Russian air force lacks fully trained pilots and has made poor use of the few good pilots that it has, according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank.

"Ukrainian assessments concluded that given limited flight hours and the practice of training being delivered in units, the VKS entered the conflict with fewer than 100 fully trained and current pilots," the report said, referring to the Russian air force by its initials.

But Moscow is doing something even more dangerous for the long-term health of Russian airpower. It is committing instructor pilots to battle, which means that pilots being trained now and in the future will have fewer experienced mentors.

Edit: I also found a different article from November 2021 where Shoigu gave an interview and said that 90% of Russian pilots had combat experience and between 100 and 400 hours of cockpit time.  

Given this new information source, it is reasonable to believe that they have very few experienced pilots - and that those pilots trained in a Lada simulator because of the stick shift.

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by Gatorubet

[Brisketexan 104446]

4 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/fighting-in-ukraine-reveals-russian-air-force-fragility-think-tank-2022-12

Trying to answer my own question. I do not vouch for the credibility of the article, but me-likey the content. 

 

[TwiceHorn 31178]

18 hours ago, The Dog said:

Posting all of this for convenience because General Hertling doesn't post this kind of content often:

 

I have been impressed with this guy, but just now looked him up on wiki.  Guy is completely legit as both a warrior and an educated man.  The Point, obviously, three masters degrees, and a PhD in business focusing on physician management and leadership.  Battlefield command as a Major in Iraq.  Wounded in action.

Respek.

[SL Xpress 7504]

45 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Look at the first year of almost every major conflict and draw no conclusions towards what the end of the war looks like.  It's still the 1st quarter

• The Civil War - Confederate victory after victory
• WWI - Initial German success
• WWII - Again, but with Tanks
• The Russia front - Russia losing thousands of miles of territory and hundreds of divisions swallowed up

 

Almost every great conflict seems like an exaggeration. Sometimes they're so one sided they're not considered a great conflict. 

I still think the greatest risk to Ukraine is the West losing the political will to support them at this level. And in fact, I believe they'll need to support them at an even higher level to achieve a successful prosecution of this war, which I think of as the return of Crimea and at least a limit to how much of the Donbas Russia controls. But we're a long ways from that. 

But war is about resources. By itself, Ukraine simply doesn't have the resources to match up. But with the West, they have a massive advantage. 

It's just fun to see the current Russian winter offensive look so completely inept, and I'd like to see that part continue.

[atomheartbevo 89353]

6 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

So it's looking more and more to me that Russia could just wind up completely losing this 100% on its' own, and has shot itself in the dick.  It's almost as if the Ukes don't have to go after them at all, just let the Russians come on and get destroyed.  

I wonder how much of an impact that Bakhmut has had on things as well as the losses at Kherson.  Yeah, it was Wagoner for most of the time at Bakhmut, but it seems like it wrecked them pretty well and it still took Russian equipment out.  And both Kherson and Bakhmut (and a few other areas currently being attacked) seem to be soaking up a lot of Russian vehicles.

6 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

But let's game it out a bit.  Say Ukraine has a spring campaign that is wildly effective and regains its 1991 borders.  Does Russia continue just to lob shells at Ukrainian territory from Russia?  

I think Russia continues to make things as hard for Ukraine as possible.  It could go from a war of conquest and trying to take Ukrainian land and resources to a war of making Ukraine as weak and tired as possible, for another run somewhere down the road, but then again, Ukraine will come out of this stronger, with a top-flight and battle-tested military with Western weapons (and its own homegrown systems).  

If Ukraine regains all of its borders, or even just the Crimea (and the points to the east of Kherson), then I think Putin is done, so the new Russian bosses may decide they like doing business with the West and having their Italian villas and mega yachts, so they do everything possible (short of reparations) to try and integrate themselves back into Europe, at least as much as they were prior to last year or 2014.  Right now, China and India are the only major trading partners left, and both of those countries are more than happy to not only take advantage of Russia in its current state, but both are working on their defense industries to replace Russia on the international scene.  They are going to try and keep Russia weak, so Russia's only chance at recovery is trying to get back into Western graces.

6 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Does the border from Belarus to to the Black Sea wind up looking like a super long (and super expensive) DMZ like NK/SK?

Probably not that extreme - given the surveillance capabilities we are seeing in action, Ukraine would have a decent heads up to any troop buildups, and Ukraine is going to have an extremely mobile army after this, as well as healthy air defenses and a healthy Air Force (and I think Ukraine will be fielding Western fighters by this time next year). Also, Ukraine has a homegrown cruise missile and long-range drone industry that is taking off, and so that will be its own deterrent as they build up their stockpiles.  And Ukraine is going to be able to wreck Russian ships in the Black Sea as well (the drone stuff they are working on, plus the stuff they have already deployed in action).

I'd look more towards Israel (they have a population of 9 million people, but their larger neighbors don't dare fuck with them these days).  A solid air defense, a mobile army that can be deployed rapidly, and an Air Force that can hit all the way out to Iran.  And maybe something like an amped-up Switzerland where everybody has a few assault rifles in the closet, and every village has an armory with Javelins, etc.

6 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

 If the Uke's retaliate by attacks into Russia where does that leave Russia?  Does continued Russian lower grade attack prevent Ukraine from joining NATO because there's an ongoing low grade conflict?  

I don't think Ukraine will go to the extreme of saying hitting random parts of Moscow, because Western aid will start to dry up rapidly, and more importantly, it feeds into everything Putin says.  I think they will have the green light to hit Russian military targets every time Moscow lobs a missile towards Kyiv or Lviv or Kharkiv or whatever, and Ukraine will probably have the ability to keep Russian forces well back from the border in that case, and Ukraine will be able to make things dangerous for Russia in the Black Sea.

And if Ukraine pushes Russia out of its 1991 borders, I think they get into NATO, because at that point, Russia will be thoroughly exhausted economically and militarily.

Some of that is contradictory, but Ukraine is being setup/built up for the long term, and will be much stronger a year from now, similar to Israel going through their wars in '48, '67 and '73.  

On a sidenote, in the '73 war, the US again, amazing logistics chain (helped by Vietnam winding down), they delivered this to Israel:

Quote

By the beginning of December, Israel had received between 34 and 40 F-4 fighter-bombers, 46 A-4 attack airplanes, 12 C-130 cargo airplanes, 8 CH-53helicopters, 40 unmanned aerial vehicles, 200 M-60/M-48A3 tanks, 250 APCs, 226 utility vehicles, 12 MIM-72 Chaparral surface-to-air missile systems, three MIM-23 Hawk SAM systems, 36 155 mm artillery pieces, seven 175 mm artillery pieces, and large quantities of 105 mm, 155 mm and 175 mm ammunition. State of the art equipment, such as the AGM-65 Maverick missile and the BGM-71 TOW, weapons that had only entered production one or more years prior, as well as highly advanced electronic jamming equipment, was also sent. Most of the combat airplanes arrived during the war, and many were taken directly from USAF units. Most of the large equipment arrived after the ceasefire. The total cost of the equipment was approximately US$800 million (US$4.88 billion today)

 

[BamaATL 16592]

 

 

 

[Gatorubet 30052]

7 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

WTF Editor?  Should be “No Hard Times ahead in Russia”.   

[atomheartbevo 89353]

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

It's unclear to me if Ukraine can take Melitopol, but if it can, and then hold it, it will put tremendous pressure on all Russian forces in Crimea and the Dnipro River's left bank. I'd love to see that happen, and for it to succeed to the point Crimea is surrendered to Ukraine.

They are already pressuring areas around Melitopol, and it won't take them much more to put the supply lines running through Melitopol under HIMARS and then barrel howitzer range.

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

But does the US stop supporting Ukraine under those conditions in fear of a nuclear war? Does Putin finally blow a gasket and do something stupid and rash because he's dying anyway? I mean, in truth, I want to find out - specifically because of your reasoning - but I'd really really really prefer the answer be Putin gets sulky and pouty...or dead...rather than he gets angry enough to unleash a nuclear attack. 

Putin should have already blown a gasket multiple times over.  He is either a complete mess already, or a shitload of people below him have somehow kept him in the dark, which is possible - Putin doesn't have anybody truly ruthless around him (he purged those years ago - he came up in the system in the 90s and knew who would oppose him).  The few ruthless people rising up through the ranks, well Kadyrov just had one of his buddies poisoned in a way as to leave no doubt that he should shut the fuck up and not criticize the military or Putin, and Prigozhin is getting stuff taken away from him, and is being hung out to dry as his troops run low on ammo and vehicles.  

Putin is scared of dying, and he's put that fear on public display.  He won't do it.  The fact that he said he wasn't bluffing a few weeks ago automatically meant he was.

[atomheartbevo 89353]

2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Does anyone have any idea how many qualified Russian pilots existed prior to last year’s invasion (minus the ones dirt napping in Ukraine)?   Will these be trained qualified pilots kept in reserve - or will these include many baby pilots with very few cockpit hours and little or no dogfight or bombing experience?

I have zero facts, but my guess would lean toward the latter.

I don't know, but Ukraine has a helluva lot of experienced SAM personnel who are used to shooting down much smaller targets.

Anybody find it interesting that in the past month or so, we started feeding a lot of anti-air systems into Ukraine, and then we hear that Russia maybe forcing their pilots to fly more missions in Ukraine proper?  Almost like we are reading their emails.

[Gatorubet 30052]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don't know, but Ukraine has a helluva lot of experienced SAM personnel who are used to shooting down much smaller targets.

Anybody find it interesting that in the past month or so, we started feeding a lot of anti-air systems into Ukraine, and then we hear that Russia maybe forcing their pilots to fly more missions in Ukraine proper?  Almost like we are reading their emails.

 

“OK. You give us the MoD’s last 6 month’s communications, and you get four toilets, five washing machines, three i-phones and a flash drive with every Baywatch episode ever made….deal?”

[tokamak 6350]

4 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

He's unwavering in his loyalty to Putin. That's his main qualification and the only important one for the job.

I wonder how unwavering Putin is in his loyalty to Shoigu. 

[InkaUtexas 25395]

Separatist leaders don't seem to be afraid of retaliation. 

 

[Schulz2.0 28748]

9 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I wonder how unwavering Putin is in his loyalty to Shoigu. 

Putin's inner circle is basically a few guys he's been tight with since he was in St Petersburg. Shoigu fits in that.

[Gatorubet 30052]

26 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Separatist leaders don't seem to be afraid of retaliation. 

 

“Estooneya…….”

Yeah, Estonia be talking like Russia their bitch.

 

[KYHorn 16798]

 

 

[KYHorn 16798]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89353]

37 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I wonder how unwavering Putin is in his loyalty to Shoigu. 

26 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Putin's inner circle is basically a few guys he's been tight with since he was in St Petersburg. Shoigu fits in that.

Yep, Putin is loyal to those dudes, no matter how ill-prepared or incompetent they are in their positions.

This is why some Russians bemoan the loss of the Politburo-style government (mentioned a page or two back) - when the USSR dissolved and then the Russian Federation/government/what have you came out of that, nobody expected that somebody like a Putin would come along, who would push aside/jail/etc. all opponents, and install his own personal inner circle.  It wasn't like the US in the 1770s where we were trying to prevent a situation where one person, say a king, could rule over all - the Russians were trying to get away from a lot of "baggage" from the previous 70 years.

In the end, they created a system that allowed somebody with evil intentions and the ruthlessness and smarts needed, to move in and take over and consolidate power in a way that most Soviet leaders were never able to do - there was always the Politburo waiting to remove a Khrushchev who maybe got too big for their britches.  You could easily argue that they would never have imagined that somebody would do exactly what Putin has done, because they thought that kind of stuff was dead and buried with Stalin.

[Orange&White 5516]

46 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

 

 

 

I would have never guessed that 155mm was $4200 a shot.

Edited February 17, 2023 by Orange&White

[dimyh 1874]

5 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Russia now intends to conduct more aviation strikes with their patented jack of all trades master of none air force.  I can only imagine they have been rushing pilots thru training as well.  

 

 

 

[The Dog 43770]

 

[SL Xpress 7504]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yep, Putin is loyal to those dudes, no matter how ill-prepared or incompetent they are in their positions.

This is why some Russians bemoan the loss of the Politburo-style government (mentioned a page or two back) - when the USSR dissolved and then the Russian Federation/government/what have you came out of that, nobody expected that somebody like a Putin would come along, who would push aside/jail/etc. all opponents, and install his own personal inner circle.  It wasn't like the US in the 1770s where we were trying to prevent a situation where one person, say a king, could rule over all - the Russians were trying to get away from a lot of "baggage" from the previous 70 years.

In the end, they created a system that allowed somebody with evil intentions and the ruthlessness and smarts needed, to move in and take over and consolidate power in a way that most Soviet leaders were never able to do - there was always the Politburo waiting to remove a Khrushchev who maybe got too big for their britches.  You could easily argue that they would never have imagined that somebody would do exactly what Putin has done, because they thought that kind of stuff was dead and buried with Stalin.

So weird that a people used to an autocracy throughout their history, who suddenly live in a struggling democracy where the economy is completely wrecked, then end up gravitating towards a ruthless dictator.

I can't think of anything similar happening in the last 100 years. 

BTW, the person bemoaning the loss of the Politburo was a minister from Finland. I believe she stated something along the lines of, "I can't believe I miss the Politburo."

Edited February 17, 2023 by SL Xpress

[BamaATL 16592]

19 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Fingers crossed here.  I'm also hoping there is a bit of a rope a dope going on, and that some of the newer equipment is already in place with trained folks so that the russians get the surprise of a life time (however brief that may be).  

[The Dog 43770]

3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Fingers crossed here.  I'm also hoping there is a bit of a rope a dope going on, and that some of the newer equipment is already in place with trained folks so that the russians get the surprise of a life time (however brief that may be).  

Zaluzhnyi has said this. In fact, he's said that he hopes those fighting in the East "forgive" him because he is holding back some of their best kit for the coming offensive. Their plan is to integrate the new NATO kit into new divisions to perform their spring offensive. 

That's why Russia is attacking with reckless abandon NOW because Putin knows when Ukraine starts their offensive he is fucked.

[BamaATL 16592]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Zaluzhnyi has said this. In fact, he's said that he hopes those fighting in the East "forgive" him because he is holding back some of their best kit for the coming offensive. Their plan is to integrate the new NATO kit into new divisions to perform their spring offensive. 

That's why Russia is attacking with reckless abandon NOW because Putin knows when Ukraine starts their offensive he is fucked.

Ever heard of an ambush?  You don't show your cards when you set one.  

[SL Xpress 7504]

Here's an article from France 24 that has the first mentions in print and photographs of a new defensive line being built behind Bakhmut for when it falls. 

There's also an interesting part about Ukrainian helicopter pilots. I've honestly never seen quotes from a Ukrainian helicopter pilot until now. "The manual says to fly no lower than 20 meters above the ground. Because of manpad radars I fly no higher than 5 meters above the ground."

A lot of comments about the need for western equipment and ammunition.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230216-we-have-to-take-more-risks-ukrainian-forces-hold-the-line-as-battle-for-donbas-heats-up

[Rimbo 25748]

5 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

I have been impressed with this guy, but just now looked him up on wiki.  Guy is completely legit as both a warrior and an educated man.  The Point, obviously, three masters degrees, and a PhD in business focusing on physician management and leadership.  Battlefield command as a Major in Iraq.  Wounded in action.

Respek.

He was also one of the few people who said before the war that Russia was walking into a disaster. He said that because he'd seen their equipment and training, and the Ukrainians'.

[atomheartbevo 89353]

37 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

BTW, the person bemoaning the loss of the Politburo was a minister from Finland. I believe she stated something along the lines of, "I can't believe I miss the Politburo."

Yeah, she mentioned that, and there's been a bunch of Russian expats and opposition types over the years that have mentioned that some kind of Politburo would have prevented the rise of somebody like Putin, and maybe it was Gary Kasparov last year that said it would have prevented the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and possibly the 2014 (if not him, some other Russian expat with a large following).  Of course, if Russia had a Politburo, that would mean one party controls everything.......oh.

The lack of a Politburo structure is also why some are really worried about a post-Putin Russia.  He has gutted the competition, and people like Shoigu are not capable of stepping into the vacuum and taking over, especially since he'll be associated with the Ukrainian clusterfuck.  The old-school types like Putin that understood power the way that Putin wields it are fast dying off, and the younger types capable of wielding it have either fled the country or are oligarchs bound to Putin in some way (he controls part of their companies, he can have the government take over their companies, etc.).

I hope state TV plays Swan Lake when it goes down.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

WaPo on spying

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/17/russia-spies-europe-arrests/

Quote

 

In wake of Ukraine war, U.S. and allies are hunting down Russian spies

Officials caution that Russia retains significant capabilities despite exposure of multiple operatives in Europe

By Greg Miller

, 

Souad Mekhennet

, 

Emily Rauhala

 and  

Shane Harris

 

February 17, 2023 at 1:00 a.m. EST

 

The Berlin headquarters of the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Germany's foreign intelligence service, on Jan. 27. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

 

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Among the slumbering passengers on an overnight flight from Miami to Munich last month were two travelers on opposing sides of an espionage takedown.

In one seat was a German citizen who would be arrested upon arrival and charged with treason for helping Russia recruit and run a Kremlin mole in the upper ranks of Germany’s intelligence service. Seated nearby was an FBI agent who had boarded the flight to surreptitiously monitor the suspected operative, according to Western security officials, and make sure that he was taken into custody by German authorities.

 

 

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The Jan. 21 arrest of Arthur Eller — based largely on evidence that the FBI had assembled during the suspect’s stay in Florida — was the latest salvo in a shadow war against Russia’s intelligence services.

 

Over the past year, as Western governments have ramped up weapons deliveries to Ukraine and economic sanctions against Moscow, U.S. and European security services have been waging a parallel if less visible campaign to cripple Russian spy networks. The German case, which also involved the arrest of a senior official in the BND, Germany’s foreign intelligence service, followed roll-ups of suspected Russian operatives in the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Austria, Poland and Slovenia.

 

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The moves amount to precision strikes against Russian agents still in Europe after the mass expulsion of more than 400 suspected Russian intelligence officers from Moscow’s embassies across the continent last year.

U.S. and European security officials caution that Russia retains significant capabilities but said that its spy agencies have sustained greater damage over the past year than at any time since the end of the Cold War. The magnitude of the campaign appears to have caught Russia off-guard, officials said, blunting its ability to carry out influence operations in Europe, stay in contact with informants or provide insights to the Kremlin on key issues including the extent to which Western leaders are prepared to continue stepping up arms deliveries to Ukraine.

 

If so, the fallout may add to the list of consequences that Russian President Vladimir Putin — a former KGB officer in East Germany — failed to anticipate when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

 

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“The world is quite different for the Russian services now,” said Antti Pelttari, director of Finland’s foreign intelligence service. Because of the expulsions, subsequent arrests and a more hostile environment in Europe, he said, “their capability has been degraded considerably.”

A trip to Florida

Russia has sought to compensate for its losses by relying more heavily on cyberespionage, Pelttari and other European officials said. Moscow has also tried to take advantage of border crossings and refugee flows to deploy new spies and replenish its depleted ranks, officials said.

 

But these new arrivals would be without the protection and advantages of working out of Russian embassies, officials said, and may lack the experience, sources and training of those who were declared persona non grata.

In a possible sign of Russian desperation, officials said, Moscow has attempted to send spies who were expelled from one European capital back to another, probing for vulnerabilities in coordination across the continent’s patchwork of security services.

“We have no illusions that the Russians will keep on trying” to reconstitute networks in Europe, said a senior Western security official who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive operations. The official said his country and others have shared the identities of those they expelled with other members of the European Union. Of those Russian attempts to reinsert spies, the official said, “none that we are aware of were successful.”

 

The German case has heightened anxieties about lingering vulnerabilities in Europe, showing that even amid the post-Ukraine crackdown, Moscow was getting a steady stream of classified files from inside one of Europe’s largest intelligence services, Germany’s BND. Berlin has downplayed the damage in conversations with allied services, but the accused mole had access to highly sensitive data, security officials said.

Russia’s security service works to subvert Moldova’s pro-Western government

A month before Eller’s arrest in Munich, German authorities had also arrested Carsten Linke, 52, who was in charge of a unit responsible for internal BND security with access to the personnel files of agency employees, officials said. He had previously spent years working at a sprawling facility in Bavaria responsible for technical collection operations targeting global information networks.

 

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Germany only discovered the penetration with the help of an allied Western service that BND officials have refused to identify. In September, a joint operation revealed that Russian intelligence agencies had gained possession of classified BND documents, setting in motion a mole hunt that quickly focused on Linke.

A lawyer for Linke did not respond to requests for comment.

The severity of the breach prompted the United States, Britain and other governments to curtail intelligence-sharing with Berlin, officials said.

“Every single service is doing their own damage assessment,” said a senior intelligence official in Northern Europe. “You think, ‘What information did we share with them? Was that information available to [Russia’s agent]?’”

 

The Germans also confronted other difficult questions, including whether Linke had an accomplice. German officials began scrutinizing his relationship with Eller, a 31-year-old gem and metals trader who was born in Russia and lived in the same region of Bavaria where Linke had spent much of his career.

 

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German media reports have said that Linke and Eller met in 2021 at a social event. But in recent interviews with The Post, officials said there are indications that the two were introduced by a member of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, party, raising the prospect that Linke may have been motivated by radical political views.

 

Eller’s work seemed to require near-constant travel — 110 trips last year alone, according to a person familiar with the investigation — with records showing that he had frequently traveled to Moscow.

 

Eller was “pretty fast identified as a possible co-conspirator,” said a senior German security official involved in the investigation. But by early November, he had departed to Florida with his wife and young daughter for a lengthy visit with his wife’s relatives in Miami, the person familiar with the investigation said.

 

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Eller returned to Germany in December as part of an international business trip. When Linke was arrested on Dec. 21, Eller received a call from a contact in Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) — the main successor to the KGB — warning him that he was in danger and urging him to fly to Moscow, the person said.

Instead, Eller departed again for Florida on Christmas Day, the person familiar with the case said. Remarkably, German authorities made no attempt to prevent him from leaving. “The evidence we had gathered was not enough to arrest him,” the German security official said.

 

A crash investigation by the FBI changed that.

After learning that Eller was under scrutiny in the BND breach, the bureau kept him under near-constant surveillance. Agents monitored Eller’s movements and communications, while German authorities provided a stream of information about their own unfolding investigation, officials said.

 

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Eller’s hectic travel schedule came to an abrupt halt on Jan. 12, when he sought to board another flight to Munich and was intercepted at the Miami airport by FBI agents, said the person familiar with the case. A senior FBI counterintelligence official described the contact as an “overt approach,” a potentially risky maneuver that paid off unexpectedly.

 

Eller agreed to undergo questioning by FBI agents at a nearby facility, and to surrender devices including a laptop and cellphone, according to the person familiar with the investigation. He cast himself as affiliated with the BND, the person said, and proceeded to reveal startling details, including that he had carried classified BND files to Russia and returned with envelopes that he believed contained large sums of cash for Linke, and that he had been in contact with officers from the FSB.

Eller’s attorney declined to comment. It is not clear why Eller volunteered so much information, but he has been casting himself as a victim of Linke’s manipulation, according to the person familiar with the case. That person said Eller claims he thought he was working for the BND, and Eller has said his cooperation with the FBI reflected his desire to help investigators. Agents also spoke with Eller’s wife and her brother in Florida, the person familiar with the investigation said.

 

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German officials reject any characterization of Eller as being duped. Eller admitted to the FBI and German investigators that “he had been the one who asked Linke to commit the espionage acts,” the senior German security official said.

 

A senior U.S. official said the Justice Department weighed whether to file charges against Eller but officials saw no evidence that he had committed a serious crime in the United States and opted to have him return to Germany, where the case against him was stronger. Eller was ordered to leave the country, and FBI agents escorted him to the gate for his departure, according to the person familiar with the investigation, who said that Eller’s laptop and phone were not returned to him.

Armed with the information gleaned by the bureau, German authorities were waiting at the Munich airport on Jan. 21 with an arrest warrant issued two days earlier.

 

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Linke is accused of abusing his BND authority to help Eller cross German border checks with classified files and cash. The person familiar with the investigation said that a separate BND official, apparently acting on orders from Linke, would assist Eller through the Munich airport by helping him bypass customs inspections.

Investigators have uncovered at least four payments that Eller brought to Linke, totaling about $100,000, officials said. Other aspects of the case remain a mystery, including the purpose of repeated trips Eller made between New York and Moscow. Attempts by The Post to reach Eller’s wife or her relatives in Florida were unsuccessful.

Brazilian covers

While the German case centers on a European accused of betraying his country for the Kremlin, others have involved Russian nationals seeking to infiltrate the West.

Among them are so-called “illegals” sent abroad not as diplomats — with accompanying legal protections — but under more elaborate cover arrangements designed to conceal any connection to Russia.

Authorities in the Netherlands last year confronted a passenger who presented a Brazilian passport when he arrived at Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam, having accepted a position as an intern at the International Criminal Court. In reality, he was a Russian military officer named Sergey Cherkasov who had been sent overseas more than a decade earlier by Russia’s GRU spy agency, its main military intelligence service, according to officials and court records.

Cherkasov had spent years living in Brazil and constructing an identity as Victor Muller Ferreira using fraudulent documents. He went on to earn degrees at Trinity College in Dublin and Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies in Washington before securing an internship offer from the international court now investigating allegations of Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

Turned back by the Netherlands, Cherkasov is now serving a prison sentence in Brazil after being convicted of charges including document fraud. Russia has denied he was a spy, but has sought his return by claiming he is a wanted drug criminal and asking Brazil to extradite him.

In October, authorities in Norway arrested an accused Russian spy under similar circumstances. The suspect had posed as a Brazilian researcher focused on Arctic security issues at a university in northern Norway, credentials that enabled him to gain access to European experts and officials. Like Cherkasov, Mikhail Mikushin was a Russian “illegal” who had spent years abroad developing an elaborate cover for his GRU assignment, according to Norwegian authorities.

Russians abandon wartime Russia in historic exodus

The pace of arrests and exposures has been driven in part by increased cooperation among European services, officials said, as well as a post-Ukraine shift in mind-set in countries, including Germany, long criticized by some of their European neighbors as too complacent about the threat from Moscow.

“February of 2023 is not the same as February of 2021 or 2019,” said a senior Western intelligence official. After’s Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “there just isn’t as much tolerance or as much space” in Europe.

Senior officials described whack-a-mole-like efforts to keep Russian services from restocking European embassies with spies. In a speech last year, Ken McCallum, director of Britain’s MI5 domestic service, said the British government had “refused on national security grounds over 100 Russian diplomatic visa applications” since 2018, when Britain expelled 23 suspected Russian spies in retaliation for the poisoning of a defector in Salisbury, England.

As a result of such pressure, Western officials said they have also seen signs that Russia’s intelligence services are making decisions they would have avoided in the past — making operatives more vulnerable to detection.

“Our work has revealed Russian agencies raising their risk tolerances,” said the senior FBI counterintelligence official, though he declined to provide specifics. In some cases, he said, “their actions to me show desperation.”

The crackdown has also been fueled by U.S. intelligence. Seeking to take advantage of Moscow’s vulnerability, the CIA and FBI have stepped up flows of intelligence to services across Europe to root out Russian penetrations, officials said. Even before the arrests in Germany, authorities in Sweden, Norway and other countries had cited contributions from U.S. intelligence in their arrests of GRU illegals and disruptions of related networks.

The full impact of the damage to Russia’s spy networks in Europe is difficult to assess.

Security officials in Finland and Sweden, for example, said they have been surprised at how little effort Russia put toward disrupting those countries’ applications to join NATO.

“It was remarkably quiet in the springtime” as Finland submitted its paperwork, said Pelttari, the Finnish spy chief.

 

To some, it was a sign that Russia’s capabilities had been degraded and that its services were preoccupied with the Ukraine war effort, which has exposed major failings by the FSB and other agencies. But officials said it may also reflect recognition by Moscow that public support for joining NATO was so overwhelming that seeking to shift opinion or disrupt the process was a lost cause.

Russia was suspected of involvement in other cases that raised anxieties in Europe last year, although evidence of direct links to Moscow has so far proved elusive.

Norwegian authorities made multiple arrests in cases of suspicious surveillance activity involving drones last year, raising fears that Russia was targeting critical infrastructure. But those who were detained have since been released, and authorities now believe many were innocent hobbyists.

Mail bombs sent late last year to government officials and other targets in Spain, including one that injured a Ukrainian Embassy official, triggered fears that Russia was mobilizing a network of far-right militants to sow terror. Last month, however, Madrid announced the arrest of a 74-year-old Spaniard who opposed his country’s support for Ukraine but appears to have acted alone. A statement issued by Spain’s investigating magistrate said there was “no indication that the person under investigation belongs to or collaborates with any terrorist gang or organized group.”

There are more recent signs, however, that Russia’s spy agencies continue to meddle in Europe.

Over the past month, Lithuania has endured a wave of online operations targeting Ukrainian refugees. The first involved “phishing” emails that were sent out to local agencies, nonprofits and even hotels with attachments seeking the names and addresses of Ukrainians they had encountered.

The messages were falsely sent under the guise of Lithuania’s migration authority, prompting a scramble by public officials to disavow the emails and reassure Ukrainians there was no government effort to track them.

A follow-on email campaign involved phony messages purportedly from the Ukrainian Embassy asserting that Lithuania was helping to locate military-aged males to send back into the conflict. Lithuania’s security services attributed the attack to an unidentified “Russian cyber actor.” Data on refugees could be used to harass them or even blackmail those with relatives trapped in parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia.

But a senior Lithuanian official said the more likely goal was to sow distrust between refugees and host governments. The messages were intended to make Ukrainians worry “that they are not safe and secure here,” the official said, with a possible secondary goal of “tying up the resources of our institutions.”

Cate Brown in Washington and Gabriela Sá Pessoa in São Paulo, Brazil, contributed to this report.

War in Ukraine: What you need to know

The latest: Fighting in eastern Ukraine continues as Russian forces make minor gains in their attempt to encircle the city of Bakhmut. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked Western allies for fighter jets as Russia mounts a spring offensive. Read the latest here.

The fight: Russia has been targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure with missile and drone strikes since October, often knocking out electricity, heating and water in the country. Despite heavy fighting, no side has made significant gains for months. Western allies agreed to a new wave of elaborate weapons, including Leopard tanks, hoping it may change the balance on the battlefield.

A year of war: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war has set off a historic exodus of his own people, with data showing that at least 500,000, and perhaps nearly 1 million, have left Russia since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. Despite that and extensive sanctions, the Russian economy has remained more resilient than many expected. There are signs, however, that Putin’s luck may be starting to run out.

Photos: Washington Post photographers have been on the ground from the beginning of the war — here’s some of their most powerful work.

How you can help: Here are ways those in the United States can support the Ukrainian people as well as what people around the world have been donating.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89353]

Hungary: The asshole of Europe