Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

The different news outlets on Lukashenko's comments are interesting.  Some frame it as threatening Ukraine, some focus on that "we don't want war" part.

[The Dog 43770]

9 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

The different news outlets on Lukashenko's comments are interesting.  Some frame it as threatening Ukraine, some focus on that "we don't want war" part.

Because the Belorussian army wants nothing to do with invading Ukraine. They've already told him that if they are told to go they won't and might just overthrow him. 

They will defend their country if someone were to attack them but they have no interest in joining Putin's folly.

[The Dog 43770]

 

[Gatorubet 30052]

14 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

How does this work ? Drive to Berlin and then take the E 40 S. East through Portland to Ukraine?

[tokamak 6350]

Question for the thread. Obviously I'm rooting for Ukraine. You're rooting for Ukraine. All of the citizen journalists, retired generals, think tanks, etc from Twitter are rooting for Ukraine. Mainstream Western media is rooting for Ukraine. Western intelligence services are rooting for Ukraine. So the question - are we in an echo chamber?

I ask because basically ever since the beginning of the war, the info I've personally consumed is that Ukraine is almost always awesome, disciplined, brave, effective, and winning, and that Russia is dumb, ill-equipped, incompetent, corrupt, and blundering. It's not hard to buy that in general, but it's just so....consistent? This recent Russian winter offensive is a good example. We read about that for weeks - here it comes! Then literally like 2 days into it, the NYTimes is publishing articles about how it's already a big failure and Ukraine is just mowing Russians down and it's fizzling out.

At some point I become incredulous. I'm a naturally skeptical person, you might say naturally pessimistic, too. Is there really no deeper level to this than "yes, Russia really is that bad at this and they haven't been able to score any meaningful victories against a country with 1/5 their population and 1/10th their military budget"?

[Gengs1 2583]

34 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

The different news outlets on Lukashenko's comments are interesting.  Some frame it as threatening Ukraine, some focus on that "we don't want war" part.

Their army saw what this does 

And went 

[BamaATL 16592]

8 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

How does this work ? Drive to Berlin and then take the E 40 S. East through Portland to Ukraine?

Well there's a guy a great mustache in Trans Am that sort of clears the way for them.

[Gengs1 2583]

1 minute ago, tokamak said:

Question for the thread. Obviously I'm rooting for Ukraine. You're rooting for Ukraine. All of the citizen journalists, retired generals, think tanks, etc from Twitter are rooting for Ukraine. Mainstream Western media is rooting for Ukraine. Western intelligence services are rooting for Ukraine. So the question - are we in an echo chamber?

I ask because basically ever since the beginning of the war, the info I've personally consumed is that Ukraine is almost always awesome, disciplined, brave, effective, and winning, and that Russia is dumb, ill-equipped, incompetent, corrupt, and blundering. It's not hard to buy that in general, but it's just so....consistent? This recent Russian winter offensive is a good example. We read about that for weeks - here it comes! Then literally like 2 days into it, the NYTimes is publishing articles about how it's already a big failure and Ukraine is just mowing Russians down and it's fizzling out.

At some point I become incredulous. I'm a naturally skeptical person, you might say naturally pessimistic, too. Is there really no deeper level to this than "yes, Russia really is that bad at this and they haven't been able to score any meaningful victories against a country with 1/5 their population and 1/10th their military budget"?

Ask yourself this, how does the supposedly #2 rank military in the world with all of the might such as airplanes, subs, ships, weapons that rival the usa etc have such a hard time taking over a country that they consider to be very inferior to them in every way. Don’t you think the Russians should be performing better 1 year into the battle?

Not looking at this thread, wouldn’t you say they should be doing better with all that we have been told by Russia how good they are?

[ABSR 5287]

14 hours ago, tokamak said:

I wonder how unwavering Putin is in his loyalty to Shoigu. 

I think the answer is more about how loyal Shoigu is to Putin.   I am sure he knows he could put a more competent person in that role, but someone competent could be a threat to Putin.  Shoigu is absolutely loyal as he owes everything to Putin, and if Putin goes away so does everything Shoigu has been given/taken.

[tokamak 6350]

7 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

Ask yourself this, how does the supposedly #2 rank military in the world with all of the might such as airplanes, subs, ships, weapons that rival the usa etc have such a hard time taking over a country that they consider to be very inferior to them in every way. Don’t you think the Russians should be performing better 1 year into the battle?

Not looking at this thread, wouldn’t you say they should be doing better with all that we have been told by Russia how good they are?

I do, and that's the point I'm trying to make. Maybe I misunderstand what you're getting at.

I buy that Russia is by-and-large incompetent, corrupt, and ill-prepared. What I'm struggling with is the idea that they are just complete morons and can be this bad at this, for this long, this consistently.

[InkaUtexas 25396]

15 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Question for the thread. Obviously I'm rooting for Ukraine. You're rooting for Ukraine. All of the citizen journalists, retired generals, think tanks, etc from Twitter are rooting for Ukraine. Mainstream Western media is rooting for Ukraine. Western intelligence services are rooting for Ukraine. So the question - are we in an echo chamber?

I ask because basically ever since the beginning of the war, the info I've personally consumed is that Ukraine is almost always awesome, disciplined, brave, effective, and winning, and that Russia is dumb, ill-equipped, incompetent, corrupt, and blundering. It's not hard to buy that in general, but it's just so....consistent? This recent Russian winter offensive is a good example. We read about that for weeks - here it comes! Then literally like 2 days into it, the NYTimes is publishing articles about how it's already a big failure and Ukraine is just mowing Russians down and it's fizzling out.

At some point I become incredulous. I'm a naturally skeptical person, you might say naturally pessimistic, too. Is there really no deeper level to this than "yes, Russia really is that bad at this and they haven't been able to score any meaningful victories against a country with 1/5 their population and 1/10th their military budget"?

A few things to keep in mind. At the height of Russia's post USSR strength, they had to level Grozny. A city armed by people with no heavy weapons and without years of NATO training and professionalization. They launched all they had to take it, committing massacres as they went. They had to do it twice. How did they finally pacify the region? By buying a strong man who can control the internal situation. 

What I think we are seeing is the #2 army in the world has been decimated by greed, theft and the loss of professional structure within the ranks. Now they are using prisoners and people mobilized. We talk about how hard it is for our DOD to find enough healthy bodies to fill the ranks, thus we lessen the enlistment requirements. How healthy are these mobilized troops for hard winter combat with little gear and leadership? 

I think both keep trying to punch their way through lines, but Ukraine just had to keep bleeding them and building up their army. I am not sure if they take all their land back, but they are not going to collapse as Putin expects unless there is an internal Coup or the loss of Western Support. Poland has a buffer with a shitty army between them and Russia. They do not want a border with Russia. I don't see them pulling back. 

 

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

23 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Question for the thread. Obviously I'm rooting for Ukraine. You're rooting for Ukraine. All of the citizen journalists, retired generals, think tanks, etc from Twitter are rooting for Ukraine. Mainstream Western media is rooting for Ukraine. Western intelligence services are rooting for Ukraine. So the question - are we in an echo chamber?

I ask because basically ever since the beginning of the war, the info I've personally consumed is that Ukraine is almost always awesome, disciplined, brave, effective, and winning, and that Russia is dumb, ill-equipped, incompetent, corrupt, and blundering. It's not hard to buy that in general, but it's just so....consistent? This recent Russian winter offensive is a good example. We read about that for weeks - here it comes! Then literally like 2 days into it, the NYTimes is publishing articles about how it's already a big failure and Ukraine is just mowing Russians down and it's fizzling out.

At some point I become incredulous. I'm a naturally skeptical person, you might say naturally pessimistic, too. Is there really no deeper level to this than "yes, Russia really is that bad at this and they haven't been able to score any meaningful victories against a country with 1/5 their population and 1/10th their military budget"?

Yeah, it’s a big concern. You have to both make sure you are corroborating as much as possible, and you have learn to tune out the the stuff that feels like anecdotal rah rah stories.  

[BamaATL 16592]

2 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I do, and that's the point I'm trying to make. Maybe I misunderstand what you're getting at.

I buy that Russia is by-and-large incompetent, corrupt, and ill-prepared. What I'm struggling with is the idea that they are just complete morons and can be this bad at this, for this long, this consistently.

Never under estimate the power of poor leadership.  

[BabaYaga 15202]

12 minutes ago, tokamak said:

What I'm struggling with is the idea that they are just complete morons and can be this bad at this, for this long, this consistently.

Bad leadership and bad intel.  They annexed Crimea in a matter of days, largely because of the support of the population.  Their supposition that the rest of Ukraine would roll over as well was their mistake.  Once embroiled, the gravity of the conflict has both sides locked into a death spiral that neither can or will exit from.  

[RDCanecutter 26233]

14 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Separatist leaders don't seem to be afraid of retaliation. 

 

Girkin has an odd look for a Russian terrorist. He looks like somebody's quiet neighbor from 1972 who just putters around in his garage with his ham radio.

[MissingInAction 24765]

46 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

How does this work ? Drive to Berlin and then take the E 40 S. East through Portland to Ukraine?

[Gatorubet 30052]

23 minutes ago, tokamak said:

 

I buy that Russia is by-and-large incompetent, corrupt, and ill-prepared. What I'm struggling with is the idea that they are just complete morons and can be this bad at this, for this long, this consistently.

Dear Sir, may I refer you to Brisket’s post comparing Aggie to Russia

[Gatorubet 30052]

7 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

lol.  I was wondering how they get the Bradleys to Ukraine. If it’s not by train, then they put them on trailers and drive them?  I noticed there’s a road that goes from Berlin through to Ukraine, although it has  to go through Poland. 

I assure you I can ask much stupider  questions than this.  in my defense I have a 102.6 temp, a negative Covid test and just started my Z-Pak for the pneumonia

[InkaUtexas 25396]

I was wondering the same thing. Interesting we did not offload them in Poland.

Probably train to Poland and then trucks. 

[BamaATL 16592]

6 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Girkin has an odd look for a Russian terrorist. He looks like somebody's quiet neighbor from 1972 who just putters around in his garage with his ham radio.

He's a weird guy.  Not kidding, he does civil war reenactments, russian civil war, but yeah.  His career is also strange, he started in school as a monarchist supporter and history student.   Somehow, from that, and there are parts of his life and career that are unclear, he rose to the rank of Colonel in the FSB.  We know he was in Moldova and Chechnya, but there is some confusion as to who he was there.  At the time he went by Igor Strelkov, however, the word strelkov roughly translates to rifleman, so there would be many Igor, the riflemen running around.  He was instrumental in Crimea, and subsequently the Donbas, but relieved after the plane was shot down.  Since then, he's largely been in Moscow.  

Given his career, its odd that he has such seemingly unilateral ability to be critical of the MOD, wagner, etc.  His whole story in generally, well, odd.  

[BamaATL 16592]

4 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

lol.  I was wondering how they get the Bradleys to Ukraine. If it’s not by train, then they put them on trailers and drive them?  I noticed there’s a road that goes from Berlin through to Ukraine, although it has  to go through Poland. 

I assure you I can ask much stupider  questions than this.  in my defense I have a 102.6 temp, a negative Covid test and just started my Z-Pak for the pneumonia

One of the failures of russia's campaign has been to cut rear line supply.  To my knowledge, none of the rail lines into Ukraine have marginally even disrupted, let alone cut.  The cheapest and most efficient way to get them in would be by rail, so I imagine that's at least how they get into Western Ukraine.  From there, I'm sure if a very covert matter. 

[InkaUtexas 25396]

Saw on Twitter yesterday Ukraine and Poland have created two new rail lines between the countries. 

One reason I think trains then trucks is they can be dispersed within Ukraine. Don't want all your bradleys in one basket. 

 

 

[Chad Fuck 17503]

24 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Bad leadership and bad intel.  They annexed Crimea in a matter of days, largely because of the support of the population.  Their supposition that the rest of Ukraine would roll over as well was their mistake.  Once embroiled, the gravity of the conflict has both sides locked into a death spiral that neither can or will exit from.  

This I think is the worst.  I've worked in offices where the boss thought it improved competition to pit workers against each other.  It does increase competition, but only among the workers.  It diminishes overall outcomes for the company and creates an internal culture of insecurity and fear, rather than innovation and teamwork.  Time wondering who is trying to fuck you over, or who you need to fuck over, is not time spent thinking about how to improve/sell the product.  This is the sense, on a much grander scale, that I get from the Russian armed forces, and Russian government in general.  

[RDCanecutter 26233]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Saw on Twitter yesterday Ukraine and Poland have created two new rail lines between the countries. 

One reason I think trains then trucks is they can be dispersed within Ukraine. Don't want all your bradleys in one basket. 

 

 

Might be this one, refurbishing old abandoned lines:

https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/2022/03/13/1086032747/russia-ukraine-poland-refugees-train-rail-tracks

[InkaUtexas 25396]

Just now, RDCanecutter said:

Might be this one, refurbishing old abandoned lines:

https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/2022/03/13/1086032747/russia-ukraine-poland-refugees-train-rail-tracks

Not exact, but same story. Thanks for tracking it down Recon Hound. 

[Brisketexan 104447]

44 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Never under estimate the power of poor leadership.  

As a fan of Texas football.....TOO SOON.

[RDCanecutter 26233]

21 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

 Not kidding, he does civil war reenactments, russian civil war, but yeah. 

It's 100% this. I missed it because he is not Santa-Claus-bearded or obese. I can see every conversation with him turning into the best way to store hard tack in a bedroll. Also, that far-away gaze like he's just visiting from a simpler time. In his defense, those Budenovka Elf Caps are awesome.

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by RDCanecutter
stealth goatee.

[Viper 12011]

23 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

 

 

 

19 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Look at the first year of almost every major conflict and draw no conclusions towards what the end of the war looks like.  It's still the 1st quarter

• The Civil War - Confederate victory after victory
• WWI - Initial German success
• WWII - Again, but with Tanks
• The Russia front - Russia losing thousands of miles of territory and hundreds of divisions swallowed up

 

this it too glib by half. The conclusion to draw from those war outcomes, and virtually all modern total wars, is not that you can't know who will win based on early results, but that given time, the side with the superior industrial capacity will win. With the support of the US and Europe, that is Ukraine. If that support is removed and/or the sanctions against Russia weakened, then it tips to Russia.

Edited February 17, 2023 by Viper

[BamaATL 16592]

7 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

It's 100% this. I missed it because he is not bearded or obese. I can see every conversation with him turning into the best way to store hard tack in a bedroll. Also, that far-away gaze like he's just visiting from a simpler time. In his defense, those Budenovka Elf Caps are awesome.

 

Well, since you brought it up, this gets a bit stranger.  So as I said, he started off as a history student that openly advocated the return of the monarchy.  However, apparently when doing reenactments, he prefers to portray a figure that was instrumental in the overthrow.  Now I suppose if you are truly a buff, and doing a reenactment, the important thing is that you get the history correct, not whichever side you might agree or disagree with.  That having been said, its typically human nature to want to portray someone you agree with (at least that's how I would think).  I'm sure there is further nuance that I don't understand, but there is a lot of odd involved with this guy.  

[statsman 5406]

1 hour ago, tokamak said:

Question for the thread. Obviously I'm rooting for Ukraine. You're rooting for Ukraine. All of the citizen journalists, retired generals, think tanks, etc from Twitter are rooting for Ukraine. Mainstream Western media is rooting for Ukraine. Western intelligence services are rooting for Ukraine. So the question - are we in an echo chamber?

I ask because basically ever since the beginning of the war, the info I've personally consumed is that Ukraine is almost always awesome, disciplined, brave, effective, and winning, and that Russia is dumb, ill-equipped, incompetent, corrupt, and blundering. It's not hard to buy that in general, but it's just so....consistent? This recent Russian winter offensive is a good example. We read about that for weeks - here it comes! Then literally like 2 days into it, the NYTimes is publishing articles about how it's already a big failure and Ukraine is just mowing Russians down and it's fizzling out.

At some point I become incredulous. I'm a naturally skeptical person, you might say naturally pessimistic, too. Is there really no deeper level to this than "yes, Russia really is that bad at this and they haven't been able to score any meaningful victories against a country with 1/5 their population and 1/10th their military budget"?

This is a great question. There is an alternative narrative, where Russia is killing lots of Ukrainians, suffering few losses, and preparing to just fucking kick ass. A narrative where maybe Russian troops do some unseemly things, but, hey, Abu Ghraib, My Lai and Ukraine bombed Donbas for years!

That narrative is spread by RT, Telegram, and lots of Russian troll internet posters (and western dupes/fellow travelers like Tucker Carlson). That narrative is also false.  This thread doesn’t put up with that shit. (six months ago, I organically came up with the view that maybe Ukraine should settle to stop the civilian suffering. That idea aligned with what Russian trolls were promoting at the time, and Hobbes and others jumped all over it, pointing out that Ukraine gets to decide when it’s too much and you can’t trust Russia to honor a peace anyway. Not the easiest way to be persuaded, but … they were right). 
 
The truth is- Russia has a huge manpower advantage, a sizeable artillery advantage, a huge air advantage (that they haven’t pressed because Ukraine does have effective air defense), a huge cruise missiles advantage, a functional domestic supply chain and … nukes. 
 
Ukraine has superior leadership, military operations, a great communications advantage (underreported story- Russia thought they would shut down Ukraine internet and a nutty US billionaire said, “no”), plentiful armament from the west (as long as they are backed), and a motivated populace. 
 
The good news- Russia’s economy is staggering, and they have about 60k KIA (more than the US lost in Vietnam) and 209k total casualties. 
 
The bad news- Ukraine’s economy is destroyed and they have similar casualty figures, plus tens of thousands of murdered civilians. 
 
Russia ain’t winning but Ukraine hasn’t won yet. They have a good chance, though. It’s best for the US and world if they do. 
 
Support for an Ukraine is the most bipartisan issue in America, right now. I hope it continues. I’ve emailed my congressman that I want it to continue. Have you?
 
 

[Gatorubet 30052]

1 hour ago, tokamak said:

At some point I become incredulous. I'm a naturally skeptical person, you might say naturally pessimistic, too. Is there really no deeper level to this than "yes, Russia really is that bad at this and they haven't been able to score any meaningful victories against a country with 1/5 their population and 1/10th their military budget"?

Yeah, that military budget thing sort of gotten modified over the last year by some donations. 

[Gengs1 2583]

[Gengs1 2583]

 

[InkaUtexas 25396]

Another point about Russian forces. 

They cannot deploy everything like Ukraine can to the front. They have to guard their massive borders and control the internal population. And some of their propaganda fucks see that. Now think about the groups they are worried about. Add to that China. 

 

[Bevo 13489]

15 minutes ago, statsman said:

Russia ain’t winning but Ukraine hasn’t won yet. They have a good chance, though. It’s best for the US and world if they do. 

 
Support for an Ukraine is the most bipartisan issue in America, right now. I hope it continues. I’ve emailed my congressman that I want it to continue. Have you?
 
 

 

Shit, I haven't even gotten Minute Maid Light Mango Passion back on the shelf at HEB. I don't think my writing is very effective.

[The Dog 43770]

 

[MillerEP 30329]

 

[Gatorubet 30052]

16 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

“Estooneya…….”

Yeah, Estonia be talking like Russia their bitch.

 

Baltic nations getting even saltier 

 

[MillerEP 30329]

 

[MillerEP 30329]

 

[Orange&White 5516]

Quote

Extras recruited and promised 500 rubles (about $7) to attend Putin’s patriotic concert and rally in Moscow on February 22

Any young male russian that falls for this has earned his way to the front.

The allure of $7 buck is probably not worth the risk of getting mobilized.

That concert will be the highest ratio of female to male attendees in Russian history.

[MillerEP 30329]

 

[MillerEP 30329]

 

[MillerEP 30329]

 

[Gatorubet 30052]

Well, we’re waiting gif

Edited February 17, 2023 by Gatorubet

[Brisketexan 104447]

6 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

The German intelligence officer should be turned over to the Ukrainian military to handle.....appropriately.   Want to be a player in the war in Ukraine?  Let's give him his wish.

[Bevo 13489]

42 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Baltic nations getting even saltier 

 

Yeah, I’m gonna go ahead and say that that is going a little too far.

[Gengs1 2583]

8 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Send his ass to USA for the trial and recommend execution for trying to destroy our equipment. Or strap his ass to a Himars rocket in Ukraine  

[MissingInAction 24765]

100 Leopards + 50-100 Bradley's + 100 Strykers + Abrams + whateev the fuck else =

A complete fucking mudhole is about to be stomped into Russia's collective ass.

[Ghost of LL 15348]

16 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

"Auditors?"  Is that what we're calling them these days?