Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Gatorubet 30064]

24 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I think Putin is afraid to call for a general mobilization because that means press gangs in St Petersburg, Moscow, etc, and likely rationing of food and fuel. Bread lines start up and he’s dead pretty soon after

I hope you are right bonz.  I really do. I guess we’ll see how many Russians in Russia were able to avoid censorship and have a full understanding of the meat grinder. If they’re only source is Russia tonight, then the mobilization might work fine.   If everyone is now aware they are only going to Ukraine to fertilize sunflowers, maybe folks won’t stand for it.    And I just hesitate in believing that the average Russian will do anything sane. 

 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21780]

So if Putin declares war on Ukraine does that mean he might invade?

[InkaUtexas 25426]

Perhaps.... But if he does declare war, does that mean Ukraine can invade? 

[Sawbonz 27375]

7 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I was just thinking that it also allows him to hide the economic hardships from sanctions, as a full war time economy includes the concept of patriotic sacrifice during the difficult war against the Nazis.    He can say I’m sorry you can’t find anything in the grocery store, but it’s our war preparations that cause the problem, not the fake news that it is NATO sanctions.

And as we have seen, if it’s war, that allows him to kill anyone who’s even mildly a problem as a traitor. Nothing he couldn’t do before, but when Russia or the Soviet union go to war there are no prohibitions on killing anyone who can be labeled as not helping the war effort. He doesn’t have to bother with the façade anymore. His people know it and know what he is capable of.   I think they will sheep rather than riot.

Also, none of us were raised in a culture that literally raises defense of Russia and the Great Patriotic War to something more akin to religion than even ardent patriotism.  And I forget the name for it, but even now on TV you’ll have these dancers wearing World War II military outfits celebrating the victories in defense of Mother Russia.  To be Russian is to subsume your individual well-being to that of Russia’s interest - with WWII and the tens of millions lost being sold as a good thing.  You are told that your entire life.

I guess the question is: will the people agree to have millions mobilized when they did not demonstrate when it was 100,000 mobilized?  We will see I guess.    i’d put my money on the country going along with him. I can see no battleship Potemkin anywhere in sight. 

 

 

this is only partly true. This American Life did an excellent episode on Putins propaganda machine a while back. 
 

the olds (people who remember Soviet Russia) have a favorable view of Putin because they believe, correctly or no, that he was in large part responsible for the end of rationing and austerity of the Soviet era. The younger generations are much more westernized and are very leery of him. A return to bread lines will end very badly for Putin

[Gatorubet 30064]

Wow! Timely tweet. While I have an Inclination not to believe Russia can be competent enough to pull this off, if they have figured out most of the problems in their mobilization process, this could severely limit people against mobilization.  

People are going to hear that a guy with no legs was just drafted and be angry.  They are not gonna care if a semi-healthy 28 year old Ivan has to do his duty.    They are claiming that border guards will have real time information on the people they are investigating.   While I don’t believe it, I do believe they realize how fucked up was and have spent a tremendous effort to fix it.  

 

[Augustus 3061]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

In terms of the economy, they lost their biggest trading partner in terms of energy (the EU, who weened themselves off off Russian energy faster than anybody expected).  That's being replaced by other means and won't be coming back to Russia for a long time. Almost all Western companies pulled out of Russia, which has upended a lot of Russian businesses (empty real estate, Russians not being able to buy Western goods easily, taxes/tariffs, various Russian companies unable to function without Western parts/systems, etc.).. Their airline/travel industry is a hot mess.  They can't do something as simple as put airbags in their shitty cars due to a lack of chips.  They are getting supplies from Iran and North Korea, they have price caps on their oil & gas with a big chunk of the world (China and India are taking advantage of those caps).  Their cruise missiles are rolling off the assembly line and going straight into Ukraine, which means their stockpiles are depleted and/or they are having manufacturing issues preventing them from producing enough to build up a supply. They are relying on Belarus to help repair a lot of their Army equipment.

In terms of protests, Putin did something very unexpected to alleviate the potential for mass protests that I would not have believed he would do back when I said that - he allowed around 700,000 Russians in their prime to flee the country. I've seen figures much higher, over a million, but the 700,000 seems solid when adding up what countries have said they took in from Russia (I know plenty slipped out through "unofficial" ways).  Letting them leave let a lot of steam out of the pressure cooker.

 I think that 700,000 or so, had they been prevented from fleeing, would have been the core of protests in the streets, because those were all in the pool of potential draftees, and they clearly did not agree with the war - they were giving literally everything up to flee.  They left Russia knowing that any assets they had left in the country would be confiscated (which the Russian government said they would do) and that they might not be allowed to come back (or couldn't come back for fear of being jailed or mobilized).

Excellent answer, I appreciate it.

[Augustus 3061]

I just watched Trauma Zone on YouTube after a suggestion from a poster on the documentaries thread, and for as bad as I thought it had/has been over there, I really had no idea.

Makes me wonder if Russia might've been better off being conquered by the Nazis, and then by the Allies (assuming that would've been doable after Hitler had his hands on Russia's resources), and thereby ending that communist regime.

Regardless, it's a tragedy of a national history.

 

[Rimbo 25752]

15 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I'm reminded of the scene in There Will Be Blood where Daniel Day-Lewis yells at the religious huckster "I drinkyour milkshake!".  It certainly doesn't surprise me that China has been sending material support to the russians (we all are well aware of this), or even if they do wind up sending a level of lethal material support.  To me, it would just be them opportunistically selling them stuff (I suspect inferior, and deliberate).  A la the film, on the surface it would appear they are helping them, but in reality their real intention is to bleed them financially in their favor, quite frankly until there is nothing left or the trouble isn't worth it to them.  The "special relationship" between the two isn't what either of them would have anyone believe and in my opinion Xi and his people have to be looking at putin like he's a giant rube they can exploit.  As evidenced by the oil cap, and the Chinese new found ability to buy at a severe discount, truth is China is already are massively exploiting them.  Once the Chinese get the most they think they can, again a la the film, I suspect they will do their own version of beating them to death with a bowling pin.  

Is giving weapons to a country committing a war of terror morally abhorrent?  Certainly.  But since when has China ever shown that morals were something that concerned them? 

*For the record, and just to be clear, I have met plenty of people from China, and my interaction with each of these individuals has been very positive.  So when I am saying negative things about China, it's in relation to their government and Xi, not to Chinese people in general.  

This is a great hypothesis and all, but I have two issues with it.

First, China really doesn't benefit from the West winning here.

Second, it demands of Xi a level of brains he has yet to demonstrate.

[Rimbo 25752]

5 hours ago, The Dog said:

tl;dr

[Rimbo 25752]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Supposedly he does not use the internet/email, because he's worried about being hacked/having stuff read by people he doesn't trust

Speaking as someone who has more than a passing familiarity with internet email protocols -- I've written recognizers for POP, IMAP, and SMTP -- I personally recommend that you never email anything you wouldn't want everyone in the world knowing.

The protocols we use today were written at a time when everyone knew everyone else on the internet, and they were all one big happy family of academic researchers sharing scientific knowledge. Before the Dark Times.

[BamaATL 16592]

22 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

This is a great hypothesis and all, but I have two issues with it.

First, China really doesn't benefit from the West winning here.

Second, it demands of Xi a level of brains he has yet to demonstrate.

China doesn't care who wins this.  What they have gotten out this is the destruction of the largest military on their border and its cost them nothing.  Further, China, is now buying oil at near 1/3 of what they were paying a year ago.  That's two pretty large wins for them, and again, its cost them really nothing.  

As to the point of Xi not demonstrating brains, that's a pretty big leap.  This is a guy who grew up in poverty after his father was "resettled" during the cultural purge, who is an educated chemical engineer who has managed to rise to premiership of the largest population on earth.   I think he's done pretty well for himself, for not being a smart guy.  Maybe it was an accident that he got there.  

[Gatorubet 30064]

43 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

This is a great hypothesis and all, but I have two issues with it.

First, China really doesn't benefit from the West winning here.

Second, it demands of Xi a level of brains he has yet to demonstrate.

I think that a weakened Russia very much benefits China, which is to say they do benefit from the west winning. They will get cheap oil and minerals for as long as they can screw Russia…and decide whether they want to enforce their historical claims to Siberia. The weaker Russia is the better.

edit: did not see BamaATL had posted before I posted mine

Edited February 19, 2023 by Gatorubet

[Schulz2.0 28752]

26 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

China doesn't care who wins this.  What they have gotten out this is the destruction of the largest military on their border and its cost them nothing.  Further, China, is now buying oil at near 1/3 of what they were paying a year ago.  That's two pretty large wins for them, and again, its cost them really nothing.  

As to the point of Xi not demonstrating brains, that's a pretty big leap.  This is a guy who grew up in poverty after his father was "resettled" during the cultural purge, who is an educated chemical engineer who has managed to rise to premiership of the largest population on earth.   I think he's done pretty well for himself, for not being a smart guy.  Maybe it was an accident that he got there.  

Xi can be smart, but surrounding yourself with sycophants for years usually leads to bad decisions.

[956 Worldwide 34314]

I don’t think he’ll declare war. He’s been pretty insistent that the SMO has been going well, according to plan. This would be an admission it isn’t. Russian society has been pretty resilient, all told. I do think he’s floundering about and can’t decide what his end game is now as it has to be apparent that he’s not going to achieve the original goals of the SMO. I think he’ll bluster and huff and announce some broader measures but will resist pulling the war cord. I don’t even think his government would be capable of fully exploiting a declaration.

Edited February 19, 2023 by 956 Worldwide

[KYHorn 16808]

 

 It hasn't been a good month to be a Russian soldier.

[Brisketexan 104465]

 
[/url]  It hasn't been a good month to be a Russian soldier.

Killing nearly a thousand Russian troops a day.
Warms my heart.

[Rimbo 25752]

22 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Xi can be smart, but surrounding yourself with sycophants for years usually leads to bad decisions.

He hasn't even achieved THAT well. It took Xi far longer to consolidate power, by a factor of 4-6 times longer, than previous leaders of the PRC. And then only through ham-fisted tyranny. The Chinese recognize this as a sign of his weakness. They've seen it before.

[Gatorubet 30064]

Bradleys.  Goin' for the Dnipro.  Take me a week's ridin', and he'll be there in... hell, they’re there already.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Interesting take there.  Just let 700k of your most productive people leave so they can't make trouble.  Kinda hard on, you know, your long-term demographics, but hey....

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

He learned from Castro. Mariel boat lift. 

The problem in dictatorships, and Castro knew this, and Putin probably does based on his recently cracking down even more on dissidents/protestors, is that it doesn't take all that many people standing up to you before it becomes contagious and spreads.  A huge chunk of his military, and even civilian police and the Russian national guard (not to be confused with our National Guard - the Russian national guard is about protecting Putin and the leadership/top branches/members of the government, not protecting Mother Russia) are in Ukraine.  

If shit blows up in Russia, he has to get a lot of people back fro Ukraine and cracking down on the protestors, and how many of those that he pulls out of Ukraine say "fuck it, I'm finally out of Ukraine, think I'll disappear"

[atomheartbevo 89362]

2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I hope you are right bonz.  I really do. I guess we’ll see how many Russians in Russia were able to avoid censorship and have a full understanding of the meat grinder. If they’re only source is Russia tonight, then the mobilization might work fine.   If everyone is now aware they are only going to Ukraine to fertilize sunflowers, maybe folks won’t stand for it.    And I just hesitate in believing that the average Russian will do anything sane. 

We are heading into the second year.  Even if they only follow Russia Tonight or the other state TV shows, they all have to know that this Special Military Operation that was sold to them as being quick, and has been sold to them as doing well over the last 360 days or so, is not doing so well.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Also, none of us were raised in a culture that literally raises defense of Russia and the Great Patriotic War to something more akin to religion than even ardent patriotism.  And I forget the name for it, but even now on TV you’ll have these dancers wearing World War II military outfits celebrating the victories in defense of Mother Russia.  To be Russian is to subsume your individual well-being to that of Russia’s interest - with WWII and the tens of millions lost being sold as a good thing.  You are told that your entire life.

And Russians grow up being told that those millions who died in WWII died specifically for them.   We hear that stuff here in the US once in a blue moon, especially around the American Revolution, and WWII, but it's not a constant part of our lives, and we didn't lose tens of millions in WWII - we didn't grow up hearing stories about great-uncles or distant cousins that died, but given the enormity of their losses, every Russian is going to be related to somebody that died.

2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I guess the question is: will the people agree to have millions mobilized when they did not demonstrate when it was 100,000 mobilized?  We will see I guess.    i’d put my money on the country going along with him. I can see no battleship Potemkin anywhere in sight. 

A whole lot of people have bought their way out of mobilization and it sounds like that has ended.  And it feels like a lot of the people previously mobilized were more carefully picked than we might imagine (minorities, rural) and if they get into the million range, that's going to go through Moscow and St. Petersburg.  Also, if it happens at that scale, they are going to be mobilizing men who were told that they were safe from it, or who thought they had done their time, etc., and they'll pulling in a much larger range of ages.

And they had damn sure better be mobilizing the sons and sons-in-law of high-profile Russians, including the media hosts on nightly state TV, because it could get ugly fast if the people think there is favoritism.  Vladimir Solovyov better send one of his sons off to Ukraine.

Even with the recent ramping up of internet censorship/crackdowns (probably tied to the upcoming mobilization), people will still hear plenty of stuff.

[0xdeadbeef 1622]

2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Wow! Timely tweet. While I have an Inclination not to believe Russia can be competent enough to pull this off, if they have figured out most of the problems in their mobilization process, this could severely limit people against mobilization.  

People are going to hear that a guy with no legs was just drafted and be angry.  They are not gonna care if a semi-healthy 28 year old Ivan has to do his duty.    They are claiming that border guards will have real time information on the people they are investigating.   While I don’t believe it, I do believe they realize how fucked up was and have spent a tremendous effort to fix it.  

 

From a technical point of view, the database isn't even that big and would be the easy part; the hard part is the quality of data.   In the US, or any Western nation, you would have have to spend a painfully-large amount of time cleaning the data. Merging duplicate records, resolving conflicting records, filling in incomplete records, that kind of stuff.  You would never be able to go live until it was pretty damn good. 

But I don't think the Russians really care about getting their data good; they only need it good enough.  80/20 rule.  You can get an 80% solution for 20% of the effort.   We see a lot of incompetence and corruption getting exposed in Russia, but there are lot of Russians who are very good at Software and IT.  So yes, I can see them actually rolling this out far faster the the US ever could.  But the folks they call up are still not going to get any meaningful training, leadership, or weapons.  It'll just feed the meat-grinder faster.

 

 

[Brisketexan 104465]

21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And they had damn sure better be mobilizing the sons and sons-in-law of high-profile Russians, including the media hosts on nightly state TV, because it could get ugly fast if the people think there is favoritism.  Vladimir Solovyov better send one of his sons off to Ukraine.

Oh......one of the things I want to see most in this world is Solovyov's son suiting up and going to Ukraine.  The Ukrainians will turn and flee just from the awesome sight of a true warrior:

Shit, Prince Edward had nothing on him....

[Neonmoon 38127]

Putin is trying to outlast the west’s resolve (aka money) with a meat grinder. Maybe he can. But what I don’t get, is even if Russia holds the Donbas region. It’s not like shit is going back to normal. It’s not like EU is going to buy their gas again, or other counties are going to trade with them. 

[Rimbo 25752]

2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Putin is trying to outlast the west’s resolve (aka money) with a meat grinder. Maybe he can. But what I don’t get, is even if Russia holds the Donbas region. It’s not like shit is going back to normal. It’s not like EU is going to buy their gas again, or other counties are going to trade with them. 

Those dead soldiers aren't coming back to life. Those educated tech savvy folks aren't returning home. The benefit of the doubt the West might've had isn't coming back. The resolve of the Ukrainian people isn't wilting.

Most of us will long have been food for worms before Russia recovers from this.

[KYHorn 16808]

Higher quality version of the previous video and much longer. You can see a second guy get shot around 1:21 in addition to the clear kill at 1:10. When you sit and look at the time between each thing he's shooting off and doing, it's truly insane. If he had made a different choice, like to shoot something else or grab a different weapon a few seconds earlier, he might not have seen that guy on the left in time.

 

[KYHorn 16808]

A "slow" day today- only 590 killed.

Edited February 20, 2023 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 16808]

See second tweet below. Encouraging sign

 

 

 

[KYHorn 16808]

What??

 

 

[The Dog 43771]

New Moldovan PM telling Putin to GTFO:

 

[Augustus 3061]

I think the Russians had 13-15,000 deaths for the entire Afghan war, right?  And that lasted a decade.

And they're estimating 150,000 troop losses by March 1?

Does "troop losses" mean KIA or is that any kind of casualty or MIA?

 

[Scheiss Meister 8398]

To me that seems like the number of troops who cannot return to combat, either by death or injury, but I hope that is the number of Russian dead.

[Gravy Train 974]

^where does that number align with what Trent Talenko tweeted two weekends ago stating RU's deployed losses were closer to 200,000?

[AUS-97HORN 11654]

The 150k is Ukraine's estimated number of actual deaths -which includes Wagner, but Russia doesnt consider Wagner as soldiers so they dont count toward the Russian KIA's 

the 200k number is best guess, total non-POW casualties (KIA, WIA) 

 

of course the fact that Russia STARTED with only 200k active-duty, sorta trained soldiers in Feb 2022 and has officially lost that many in a year, is mind-bottling. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

It's estimated that Russia has about 2-3 wounded per death as well (maybe up to 4).  Their shit medical care and equipment means they die at a far higher rate than say an American wounded in Afghanistan or Iraq.

I can easily believe it's well over 100,000 dead.

They've lost at a minimum almost 2,000 officers, and these are confirmed dead mind you, which is insane in and of itself (the dead the OSINT folks don't know about could easily run several hundred or more).  Given how they are structured, and what we've seen, and that they've lost more than 2,000 officers, I think at a minimum they've lost 100,000 enlisted, and 200,000 or more wounded.  We've seen the videos of the deaths in action, we've seen the cemeteries in Russia, we've seen the hospitals and the makeshift morgues.

 

[SL Xpress 7504]

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Higher quality version of the previous video and much longer. You can see a second guy get shot around 1:21 in addition to the clear kill at 1:10. When you sit and look at the time between each thing he's shooting off and doing, it's truly insane. If he had made a different choice, like to shoot something else or grab a different weapon a few seconds earlier, he might not have seen that guy on the left in time.

 

 

My knowledge of the most effective ways to conduct trench warfare are extremely limited, but is it normal for soldiers to be deployed with one god of war and the other acting as his squire? "Here, my lord. Your joust. Here, my lord. Your sword. Here, my lord, your RPG. Oh, and here, my lord. Your holy hand grenade. And another. And another."

[statsman 5406]

The US is estimating 60,000 Russian KIA. That would include 20,000+ Wagner convicts (meaning, Russia doesn’t give a shit if they die). Yes, a big number, higher than US KIA from Vietnam. Not big enough to cause a shift yet. 

[Superhero 8738]

10 minutes ago, statsman said:

The US is estimating 60,000 Russian KIA. That would include 20,000+ Wagner convicts (meaning, Russia doesn’t give a shit if they die). Yes, a big number, higher than US KIA from Vietnam. Not big enough to cause a shift yet. 

Consider it a good start.

[Superhero 8738]

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

See second tweet below. Encouraging sign

 

 

China, can seriously go fuck itself in the goatse ass.

[The Dog 43771]

1 hour ago, Augustus said:

I think the Russians had 13-15,000 deaths for the entire Afghan war, right?  And that lasted a decade.

And they're estimating 150,000 troop losses by March 1?

Does "troop losses" mean KIA or is that any kind of casualty or MIA?

 

Visually confirmed dead.

Their actual KIA is likely larger.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

One year ago today this little tweet went out

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Visually confirmed dead.

Their actual KIA is likely larger.

The mobile crematoriums that Russia has deployed with its army is a nice OPSEC touch.  

[Superhero 8738]

Saw this in a thread about Roger Waters being a russian puppet.

 

 

[MissingInAction 24765]

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

 

My knowledge of the most effective ways to conduct trench warfare are extremely limited, but is it normal for soldiers to be deployed with one god of war and the other acting as his squire? "Here, my lord. Your joust. Here, my lord. Your sword. Here, my lord, your RPG. Oh, and here, my lord. Your holy hand grenade. And another. And another."

Yes.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

1 hour ago, Superhero said:

Saw this in a thread about Roger Waters being a russian puppet.

He's been a real shithead for a long time - he's become the very things he used to bitch and write about.  Stare into the abyss long enough and all of that.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Wonder if she is trying to set something up, because this was done with Putin's approval and they made a big deal out of it.

 

[MillerEP 30339]

[Gatorubet 30064]

1) They are going to need some larger helicopter balls;

2) Due to recent underwear condition changes, the people in that vehicle are going to need an air freshener.

CCR ftmfw🎸

Edited February 20, 2023 by Gatorubet
barefoot girls, dancing in the moonlight