Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[MissingInAction 24765]

28 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I will never not rep a "They Live" reference.

[Armybrat 40678]

1 hour ago, pops said:

No cr, and I get not wanting to grant a blank check when we have plenty of our own problems at home,  but no more aid for Ukraine  means aiding the Russians. Fuck that guy in the goatass. 

This is absolutely the perfect situation.... we don't have to put a single American life at risk while helping to crush an existential threat to the world while simultaneously building up some good will in a part of the world we haven't since the late 80's...or ever.  Also putting china on notice to simmer the fuck down.

And what is the cost?  Having a national garage sale. 

If you aren't on board with that then you aren't on board with the actual good we can do. So go fuck yourself. 

Concur 100%.

 

[Brisketexan 104462]

Fucking with Western energy infrastructure seems like a FAFO moment for Russia. 

Dutch intelligence has historically been pretty on the ball about Putin’s Russia. They should be listened to.
And Russian saboteurs should be taken out, and their bodies sunk at sea, without a trace. The teams should just end up…gone.

[Rimbo 25752]

46 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I don't want this thread to go Cloak Room, but in general, there is little value in agreeing with the opposing party. The party out of power only gains by disagreeing. So regardless of what is the "right" thing, there will always be some against it. It isn't a political party thing but more a staple of our political system.

Look, this isn't all that hard: if I make a statement, "We should not murder young children," the wrong way to disagree would be to say, "Yes, we SHOULD murder young children!" Instead, you could say, "The administration is not punishing child murderers enough!" or you could say, "Why does this administration have against murdering older children?"

You show what you are by how you disagree. When someone tells you who they are, believe them.

[dimyh 1874]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Multiple translations:

• History always repeats. Power is in the truth, and the truth is with us! 21.02.23
• History repeats, but the power is always in truth
• "Moscow is preparing for tomorrow's historic day. There will be no turning back. 21.02.23"
• History always repeat itself.The power is in truth,but truth is our(meaning="we are right")
• It says “History repeats itself” on the 1 year anniversary of the war, which already alarmed some intuitive Russians of what potentially could be coming.

Interesting, but I'd wait for one of the Russian-speaking folks like Julia Davis or WarTranslated to chime in.

 

My Russian is a little rusty but I think it say, "Putin's got a tiny pee-pee."

How much is in the Surly fund? For his big speech tomorrow I would love to fly a banner that says, "Putin is not our standard".

 

[MillerEP 30339]

[Armybrat 40678]

22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Dutch intelligence has historically been pretty on the ball about Putin’s Russia. They should be listened to.
And Russian saboteurs should be taken out, and their bodies sunk at sea, without a trace. The teams should just end up…gone.

We already have homegrown terrorists trying to sabotage power substations to cause outages which will directly lead to deaths of Americans. 
Make an example of those scumbags by enacting the death penalty just for attempting the sabotage.

[Bevo 13493]

5 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Look, this isn't all that hard: if I make a statement, "We should not murder young children," the wrong way to disagree would be to say, "Yes, we SHOULD murder young children!" Instead, you could say, "The administration is not punishing child murderers enough!" or you could say, "Why does this administration have against murdering older children?"

You show what you are by how you disagree. When someone tells you who they are, believe them.

I agree with you, but that's not what I usually see in politics. I usually see shotgun approaches to determine what resonates. And then the most promising approach is fine tuned. On a personal level, I doubt that there will be a coherent response because of hawks, but that may be more my wishes than a prognostication.

 

On a side note, it is too hard being vague so I would rather drop the topic for now.

[MagicSoccerSpray 1725]

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

I did think Barack Obama was a pretty good president for a Democrat, but I was disappointed with the US response to Crimea and the Donbas separatists. I honestly felt like we failed the Ukrainians when they needed us most. Not just the US. The whole world. I don't think of it as a Democrat/Republican thing. I just know in 2014 I became a one issue guy in a way I never was before in my life. 

The US President's true power is in foreign policy. Obama's foreign policy was terrible, he made Jimmy Carter look like Genghis Khan. History will not look kindly on his tenure.

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-belarus-strategy-document-230035184.html

Edited February 21, 2023 by MagicSoccerSpray

[statsman 5406]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

I don't want this thread to go Cloak Room, but in general, there is little value in agreeing with the opposing party. The party out of power only gains by disagreeing. So regardless of what is the "right" thing, there will always be some against it. It isn't a political party thing but more a staple of our political system.

I disagree, slightly. Sometimes there are issues that affect the nation. When a member of my party takes a position that is bad for the US, just to be opposed to the Dems, he reveals himself as an unserious person. 

[Gatorubet 30064]

54 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Dutch intelligence has historically been pretty on the ball about Putin’s Russia. They should be listened to.
And Russian saboteurs should be taken out, and their bodies sunk at sea, without a trace. The teams should just end up…gone.

It’s sort of interesting that the Dutch news comes out and today we see the Talking Heads discussing retaliating for Nord stream (which is BS because they did it, not us) by attacking similar western infrastructure in the North Atlantic. 

[YGIFS 19449]

There is a bad guy with a gun murdering women and children right now.  There is also a good guy with a gun right across the river from that bad guy. 

If it's that black and white as I've been told time and time again by my leaders...why would I not help out the good guy with the gun get the bad guy with the gun? 

The bad guy even told us when he was gonna go buy his gun and drive over to the place with all the innocent people.  He even has mental health issues.  

Be glad the U.S. is only on the hook for this much money.  The equipment we're sending is surplus.  The satellite and comms bandwidth is less than 1% of our feed.  Not one troop on the ground.  By the end of this calendar year, we'll have achieved something no American Hawk in 80 years thought possible.  And we'll do it with 35% of our adult population mumbling, "Okay fine, whatever.  I would have done it differently, but whatever.  People stopped asking my opinion a few years ago, which isn't fair.  Whatever, go ahead.  Fine."  

You don't have to support it.  You can even oppose it.  Don't even bother jumping on in at the end for the big win.  I want you to hate it until the end.  I want to watch you watch the end.  I want to see you crumble under the weight of your own destructive dissonance.  I want you to break for the greatness of NATO, Europe, and the United States of America.  To watch you scream "Patriot!" as you defy the fight for Liberty.  Only drug more potent than a broken Russian is a broken American for Russia.  Can't wait to watch Reagan's Ghost skull-fuck your bloated, diabetic corpse.

Edited February 21, 2023 by YGIFS

[statsman 5406]

(YGIFS, your last paragraph almost made me tag the laughing emoji, until I realized you weren’t joking)

[KYHorn 16808]

Yahoo news out there obtaining leaked Russian strategies and breaking international news. 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by KYHorn

[Parliament 14112]

What kinda response would a Russian attack on Dutch infrastructure bring?

And the Abrams is an F Tree Fiddy King Ranch.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Parliament

[Chad Fuck 17503]

Yahoo news it there obtaining leaked Russian strategies and breaking international news. 
 

Not surprising at all. I imagine that schedule is slipping a bit though.

[dimyh 1874]

So with the anniversary coming up and Putin planning a big speech it is going to be interesting what the stated strategy is for 2023. Russia's advantages are 1) holding current territory 2) ruthlessness 3) bodies and 4) ability to withstand a ton of shit.

On that last point, Putin is calculating (or more accurately hoping) that the average Russian is more willing to suffer thru sanctions than the West is able to stick to them. However the rumors that he wants some decisive victories in next month or so, talks about getting the RU airforce more involved indicates the desire to see an early win. Which undercuts one of his supposed advantages. So it will be interesting to see if he commits to an all-out offensive or continues with the long term meat grinder approach.

[MissingInAction 24765]

My prediction:

[KYHorn 16808]

 

 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by KYHorn

[Gatorubet 30064]

1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

Yahoo news out there obtaining leaked Russian strategies and breaking international news. 

 

I sweatergod, that I think history will find that Yahoo got this exclusive story from American intelligence to spring right now at this time. 

[YGIFS 19449]

Well it's like I told the guys on the international desk at Lycos, Bing, and Excite..."You snooze, you lose.  They chose, I peruse."  

Edited February 21, 2023 by YGIFS

[Gatorubet 30064]

Finished binging 1883.  Sam Elliott is a national treasure. 

Going to bed, but waking up at 3:00 am to try to watch Putin’s speech.  Somehow.   Set for 9:00 Zulu they say. 

[686 3401]

Illia has a good “how did we get here” summary article here, worth a click, the guy works hard:

https://kyivindependent.com/national/one-year-later-how-russia-came-to-a-fail-in-ukraine-battle-after-battle

[wood 11103]

14 hours ago, Parliament said:

I said the same thing over in the CR thread.  I'm sure I'm getting lit on fire or something atm.

Yep. Been there. Done that. Learnt my lesson. Won't be back.

[686 3401]

34 countries want the IOC to ban Russia and Belarus athletes: “we do not agree that Russian and Belarusian athletes should be allowed back into competition”. The games are a big deal in Dictatorships, and we need to stick together on this. Many Ukrainian Olympic caliber athletes are likely dead now (I think I saw some obits for a few). Why in the fuck the IOC thinks letting the Russian and Belorussians compete in this scenario is unconscionable and the IOC needs their collective clock cleaned. I’m going to go ahead and say the quiet part out loud: Europe and the US are the only reason the games exist and are I’m sure the biggest revenue generators. The IOC needs to get that straight and stop catering to 3rd world countries and pissing us off.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/statement-on-russias-war-on-ukraine-and-international-sport/statement-on-russias-war-on-ukraine-and-international-sport

[atomheartbevo 89362]

1 hour ago, 686 said:

Illia has a good “how did we get here” summary article here, worth a click, the guy works hard:

https://kyivindependent.com/national/one-year-later-how-russia-came-to-a-fail-in-ukraine-battle-after-battle

That dude has been amazing for the last year.  I'm sure he did good work before then, but yeah, he's been around.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Going to bed, but waking up at 3:00 am to try to watch Putin’s speech.  Somehow.   Set for 9:00 Zulu they say. 

It's either going to be this

Or this

Or this

I feel like he might try to launch a massive air offensive with actual aircraft entering Ukrainian air space, but then it would be embarrassing as fuck to see a bunch of irreplaceable Russian aircraft shot down.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

That's larger than Belarus's active duty army, and there's no way in hell they will just take anybody (what if a bunch of anti-Lukashenko types get in the mix and get armed).

Odd.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

[956 Worldwide 34313]

So far (about 30 minutes) into his address Putin has said nothing of great interest. Lots of rants against the West and how it started the war and promises to make the Russian defense industry great again. Promises to help veterans after they return. 

[956 Worldwide 34313]

Sanctions are bad but they aren’t working, the economy is great.  Russia is kicking ass and the West is suffering. 
 

So far this speech is total weak sauce. There was some anger at The Gays in there. 

 

[Bevo 13493]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Can Lukashenko stand if Russia falls? I don't think so. I think his only way to stay in power is if Putin stays in power.

[956 Worldwide 34313]

On 2/19/2023 at 11:46 PM, 956 Worldwide said:

I don’t think he’ll declare war. He’s been pretty insistent that the SMO has been going well, according to plan. This would be an admission it isn’t. Russian society has been pretty resilient, all told. I do think he’s floundering about and can’t decide what his end game is now as it has to be apparent that he’s not going to achieve the original goals of the SMO. I think he’ll bluster and huff and announce some broader measures but will resist pulling the war cord. I don’t even think his government would be capable of fully exploiting a declaration.

Putin is now talking about roads and shit and seems to have finished the war stuff. Lots of shit about Nazis and The Gays and back patting about how they are fighting the entire West and winning and sanctions aren’t working. All the real announcements were about how they’re going to mobilize the Russian defense industry through some state directives and other shit that’s too boring to even get into. 
 

So I’ll call myself Nostradamus on this one. 

[956 Worldwide 34313]

19 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Can Lukashenko stand if Russia falls? I don't think so. I think his only way to stay in power is if Putin stays in power.

I don’t believe Lukashenka’s regime is robust enough to survive if they actually enacted this mobilization plan. It’s all a bunch of talk. It almost tanked in 2020 after elections, Belarusians won’t put up with this shit for sure. 
 

Lukashenka is hooked to Putin now, he’s gone in a few months if regime change happens in Russia. 

[956 Worldwide 34313]

Ok, I should have stayed to the end but I got bored about rural school stuff. 
 

Anyway, Putin announces that Russia is suspending (not withdrawing) from New START and that it’s all America’s fault, бу-бу-бу. Also if the U.S. tests nukes, Russia will too— so THERE! 
 

My take- this is relatively insignificant, Russia was not really complying anyway. What Putin wants is to have something scary for his mouthpieces to shout, he is hoping Europe will get scared and back down support. 

[956 Worldwide 34313]

So, a few points on New START from my point of view. A caveat here is that you’re going to see endless takes from newly minted arms controls experts.  There’s lots of room to disagree on the significance of this, from honest people. Your best bet is to examine their takes on other stuff Russia and Ukraine related, proceed accordingly. I am NOT an arms control expert but I do think I have more to offer than average on Russian thinking and can say I am somewhat adjacent to these issues.  So, diving in:

- Suspension and not withdrawal is important. Putin can simply return to participation any time he wants and now he has a new bargaining chip to play with that is mostly cost-free. 
 

- He didn’t outline any terms of return, and that’s on purpose. He will keep them vague, the better to manipulate. He DID say that the arsenals of France and the UK should be considered, which is a non-starter as this is a bilateral agreement with the U.S. and Russia. Nifty rhetorical trick underscoring that the West is just the U.S. and vassals, which his audience will like. 
 

- Limits on arsenals get all the headlines but just as important are the notifications and inspections mechanisms. That’s what Russia has been non-compliant with and that’s what Russia is really suspending officially. I wouldn’t bet on a big nuclear buildup. 
 

- This will not play well in Europe. It’s all very North Korea-esque. Just a reminder that Russia isn’t a reliable partner and they only speak the language of threats. The tankies and the loony right will wave this around though. 

[statsman 5406]

WRT discussion of US policy, I think it’s ok to do it here, with the caveat that parroting Russian agitprop, even accidentally, will get you mocked. 
 
How to tell if it’s Russian agitprop? That’s difficult, because there is so much. I’m sorry, but agitprop may make for smart and snarky sounding sound bites, but it does not move honest policy discussions forward. A good tool is to use the guidelines of logic and rhetoric. 
 
Here is an example-“Sure, Biden looks big going to Kyiv; why doesn’t he go to E. Palestine, Ohio?”

 
If you don’t like Biden, that’s meat to chew on, but it’s a lot more gristle than steak. It’s the “What about” fallacy and the “strawman fallacy”, all cooked up with sour cream (Russians like sour cream). 
 
Here is what I would offer as a critical analysis- “I like Biden’s visit- to me, it represents the best face of America to the world and history. We still have a lot of important domestic issues and I hope our divided government can work together to advance American interests on all fronts.”

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

Quote

RIGA, Latvia — The founder of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin, launched a bitter attack on Russian military officials, claiming they failed to provide his fighters with shells. He said ample ammunition stocks existed but that he could not access them “despite all my contacts and connections.”

Prigozhin said the lack of supplies caused Wagner’s casualties to double recently. His remarks amounted to an extraordinary broadside that exposed a deepening rift between Russia’s Defense Ministry and the Wagner Group. The mercenary organization, which recruited thousands of Russian prisoners, has been fighting for months on the front line near Bakhmut, Ukraine, without managing to take the city.

In a recording published by his press service Monday, Prigozhin made a thinly veiled reference to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, attacking military officials who he said ate their meals off “golden plates” and sent their children and grandchildren on holidays to Dubai while men were dying in the war. It was an apparent reference to Shoigu’s daughter, who was photographed recently in the Persian Gulf emirate.

He published a second angry recording Tuesday, saying his men were dying “because some strange people take decisions on whether they will live or not live. ”

Prigozhin’s influence has been curbed in recent weeks after a series of controversies, including videos purporting to show Wagner’s sledgehammer executions of “traitors” and recordings of fighters complaining about the lack of Defense Ministry ammunition. Prigozhin recently announced he was no longer recruiting prisoners to fight, and pro-Kremlin media outlets have stopped mentioning Wagner’s role in current battles.

“All the questions I raised about ammunition, unfortunately, remain completely unresolved,” he said in the Monday recording, adding that officials had told him he had complicated relations with top officials and needed to apologize. But he said: “Apologize to whom? Obey whom? One hundred and forty million Russians, please tell me to whom I should apologize so that my boys die half as often as they do today.”

Infighting news. 
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/21/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-biden-poland/#link-DJ4FFGJOAVHCXGDK5RCNQE3QSA

[statsman 5406]

Also, with regards to the insults from Wang Yi, it’s important to remember the words of Edmund Burke, “Rudeness is how the weak try to appear strong.”

Blinken has been very polite with the Chinese. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Sanctions are bad but they aren’t working, the economy is great.  Russia is kicking ass and the West is suffering. 

2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Putin is now talking about roads and shit and seems to have finished the war stuff. Lots of shit about Nazis and The Gays and back patting about how they are fighting the entire West and winning and sanctions aren’t working.

So sanctions are working.

[Hefeweizen 5307]

Won’t go into the China debate here at all, but a huge part of this whole process is that the world has woken up to how bad a rogue actor can get over his skis if no one shows resistance.  
 

Putin was encouraged by the lack of response all the way through the invasion last year, and had to have been taken aback that all of a sudden, what hasn’t been an issue in taking Crimea, or downing the airliner, or poisoning people overseas, became a red line.  
 

Now there is a consensus, NATO looks like a real alliance again, and authoritarian regimes that think military might will allow them to bypass international norms are on the back foot.  The world has changed a lot, and the consequences will resonate for a while.

 The visit to Ukraine on the eve of Putin’s speech just underlined it.

[Trey3216 15325]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

So sanctions are working.

[Orange&White 5516]

So the US gave Putin advance warning that Biden was flying into Kyiv and Putin did nothing about it? And the only rhetoric he could come up with in his much anticipated speech is to "temporarily withdraw" from a nuke agreement and promise that if the US tests a nuke then they will, too? And sprinkle in some gay slurs?

That bitch ain't dropping any nukes. Biden just pantsed that dude.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Orange&White

[atomheartbevo 89362]

28 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Now there is a consensus, NATO looks like a real alliance again, and authoritarian regimes that think military might will allow them to bypass international norms are on the back foot.  The world has changed a lot, and the consequences will resonate for a while.

 The visit to Ukraine on the eve of Putin’s speech just underlined it.

Yeah, I don't recall NATO members ever being this openly aggressive.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Wow.  Let's start a dead pool on Girkin and Prigozhin.  Those dudes better stay away from windows.

They could have just kept their mouths shut, but no, there are out there complaining/trashing Putin/Russian military leadership.

 

[KYHorn 16808]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wow.  Let's start a dead pool on Girkin and Prigozhin.  Those dudes better stay away from windows.

They could have just kept their mouths shut, but no, there are out there complaining/trashing Putin/Russian military leadership.

 

Seems like it'd be a good time to counter-attack all Wagner areas. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

What's telling is that they'll only join if Ukraine attacks them.  Putin has to be fuming a bit, but even Lukashenko knows that'll be a bridge too far for a lot of Belarusians. 

 

[Orange&White 5516]

Yeah, Prigozhin won't be with us much longer.

Waylon Jennings sang a song: "Ain't livin' long like this am I baby?"

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Damn, head of Ukrainian railway system has a long and awesome thread about yesterday.  He apologized that only 90% of the trains were running on time to accommodate Rail Force One.

Also, it's a big fucking deal for the Secret Service to sign off on alternate modes of travel for a POTUS, and especially in a literal war zone. 

[Pato del Muerto 52321]

Could really use an A-team montage of how that train was modded to meet the needs of the mission.