Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Pescado_Rojo 19327]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

@Pescado_Rojo answered it, but I'd toss in that ATACMS or other long-range munitions (including JDAMS) would go a long way towards fulfilling those kinds of roles that the A-10 could be used for - the Russians can no longer rush mass formations of armored vehicles, and whatever they are capable of putting together can be handled with artillery (rocket or barrel).  And if we provide them the long-range stuff, they can cut Russian supply lines.

Ukraine has already shown how it can cut supply lines and take advantage of the resulting chaos, and Russia has some very dicey supply lines for Crimea.  Russia is running out of missiles and armored vehicles (I'm still trying to wrap my head around them pulling vehicles out of storage that were technically retired in the 1970s) and they are struggling to keep their men equipped and transporting them around.  Which, yes, is a huge shit sandwich, but if they can't effectively get that shit sandwich into the fight against the Ukrainians, it doesn't matter how much of said shit sandwich they can eat.

To add to my post above, both the Russians and Ukrainians fly the Soviet SU 25, (Ukraine is down to around a dozen in service from what I can find on the internet) which was the Soviet Union's answer to the A-10. It's a very similar platform. 30mm autocannon (only two barrels), 11 hard points for rockets/bombs/missiles, heavily armored tub for the pilot, subsonic, etc, etc, etc. They've been getting shot down left and right by both sides. Even if we could suppress Russian SAMs and provide top cover a slow, low flying  plane like the A-10 or SU-25 is a prime target for any schmuck that can use MANPADS. The only thing in Ukraine in shorter supply than artillery barrels is trained pilots, and it would be dumb to waste them flying slow ground attack aircraft. 

[MissingInAction 24765]

10 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

I make no promises about the literary merit of 7th grade Chad's reading material.  Take that as you will. 

I will pick up an old book from my childhood on occasion. It's like like I'm back in my younger self. Weird how that works.

[Trey3216 15325]

3 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I will pick up an old book from my childhood on occasion. It's like like I'm back in my younger self. Weird how that works.

I just watch the movies they make about them now and bitch about how THEY bastardized my childhood.  

[Bevo 13493]

What would a Russian victory look like anyway? There would be nothing left in Ukraine except traps for the invaders. Meanwhile, NATO wouldn't be able to hold back Poland which is about the same size as Ukraine (40Mil). And Russia depleted of arms and stretched too thin would be pretty helpless to stop them. So yeah, in a drawn out war, the West would fold. However, the former USSR satellites would not fold and their involvement would then draw the "West" back into the war. Russia really doesn't have a path to victory unless it was smart and stopped offensives and simply consolidated past gains and negotiated - and in this sense Russia is not smart.

[miguelito 11204]

For you San Antonio folks, Laika Cheesecakes is having another fundraiser for Ukraine.  The owner is from Ukraine, and raised over $70,000 last year.  The cheesecakes are awesome, by the way.

 

https://www.facebook.com/laikacheesecakes/

https://www.instagram.com/laikacheesecakes/

 

 

[Dahobbs 17420]

25 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Yep. I agree with that. It feels like victory is time-sensitive for the West. If the goal for it to happen was this spring/summer, waiting this late for the surge in hardware support was a huge mistake.

We'll see.

I don't really understand your position here. Russia isn't going to win regardless. It isn't happening. Whether Ukraine can get all of their 2014 territory back is another issue. But Russia isn't going to come out of this in a strong position and will still fail to meet pretty much all of its original strategic objectives. 

[BabaYaga 15202]

18 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

To add to my post above, both the Russians and Ukrainians fly the Soviet SU 25, (Ukraine is down to around a dozen in service from what I can find on the internet) which was the Soviet Union's answer to the A-10. It's a very similar platform. 30mm autocannon (only two barrels), 11 hard points for rockets/bombs/missiles, heavily armored tub for the pilot, subsonic, etc, etc, etc. They've been getting shot down left and right by both sides. Even if we could suppress Russian SAMs and provide top cover a slow, low flying  plane like the A-10 or SU-25 is a prime target for any schmuck that can use MANPADS. The only thing in Ukraine in shorter supply than artillery barrels is trained pilots, and it would be dumb to waste them flying slow ground attack aircraft. 

The Air Force has been trying to mothball the A-10 for decades now.  The type of recent, low intensity conflicts have put this off, but in a combined conflict with modern air defenses the A-10 is a slow moving target and as mentioned, highly vulnerable. 

[BamaATL 16592]

10 minutes ago, Bevo said:

What would a Russian victory look like anyway? There would be nothing left in Ukraine except traps for the invaders. Meanwhile, NATO wouldn't be able to hold back Poland which is about the same size as Ukraine (40Mil). And Russia depleted of arms and stretched too thin would be pretty helpless to stop them. So yeah, in a drawn out war, the West would fold. However, the former USSR satellites would not fold and their involvement would then draw the "West" back into the war. Russia really doesn't have a path to victory unless it was smart and stopped offensives and simply consolidated past gains and negotiated - and in this sense Russia is not smart.

A dead putin, many of the elites in the Hague and dead (some combination) a dismantling of their military and a complete overhaul of their society.  Short of that, it's a loss for them and the world.  

[The Dog 43771]

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

11 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't really understand your position here. Russia isn't going to win regardless. It isn't happening. Whether Ukraine can get all of their 2014 territory back is another issue. But Russia isn't going to come out of this in a strong position and will still fail to meet pretty much all of its original strategic objectives. 

I agree. But I’m worried Western support will wane if UKR isn’t able to push Russia back to their borders this year.

If we start to reduce arming UKR, they’ll be forced to negotiate a settlement that gives Russia more of UKR, Putin survives, and Russia goes back to late-Soviet era lifestyle.

[Dahobbs 17420]

1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I agree. But I’m worried Western support will wane if UKR isn’t able to push Russia back to their borders this year.

If we start to reduce arming UKR, they’ll be forced to negotiate a settlement that gives Russia more of UKR, Putin survives, and Russia goes back to late-Soviet era lifestyle.

You're overly pessimistic.  

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

You're overly pessimistic.  

You’re probably right. I swing wildly to the extremes.

Give me a week.

[Schulz2.0 28752]

9 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Give me a week.

Or go fishing.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

5 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Or go fishing.

lulz.

I know I'm in a bad headspace when my wife says 'you need to go fishing'. 

[BamaATL 16592]

27 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I agree. But I’m worried Western support will wane if UKR isn’t able to push Russia back to their borders this year.

If we start to reduce arming UKR, they’ll be forced to negotiate a settlement that gives Russia more of UKR, Putin survives, and Russia goes back to late-Soviet era lifestyle.

This isn't an unfounded thought and should not be dismissed.  I am worried that the heavier support is arriving too late in theater and the window is closing.  While we should see this matter thru in my opinion, that isn't necessarily what will happen.  If Western support erodes for any reason the Ukrainians will be forced to make a deal while on their knees and with no real recourse.  Our attention spans are short, and real progress needs to happen in the near term.  I fear the Ukrainians have but months really to win this thing, if this drags must past the fall, I fear support will falter.  

[InkaUtexas 25426]

Hate that we have this thread, but I love the contributions from all. Thank you. 

Here is where I see this ending up. 

1- Russia bleeds out. They cannot sustain this without declaring war and issuing a nationwide draft. It is a war of conquest so won't carry the same emotional weight as WW2. 

2- At some point western support starts to falter, but UA has what they have and will continue to defend. They can only take back territory with offensive weapons, and looks like they are coming. 

3- UA forces Russia to the table for concessions. It is up to the UA to determine what they want to give, not the west. This happens only when Crimea is taken this summer.

4- Surly continues to be surly. 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

Well, good 😍

Fighters of the 93rd OMBr "Kholodniy Yar" attack the occupiers in Bakhmut. And with the help of BMP-2, they lightly explain to the Wagnerites, who were hiding in the building, that it would be better for them to stay in prisons in Russia 🤣

Video: 93rd OMBr

[InkaUtexas 25426]

2 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Let's do DC. And in front of the UN. 

[The Dog 43771]

4 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Nivek 16808]

8 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hate that we have this thread, but I love the contributions from all. Thank you. 

Here is where I see this ending up. 

1- Russia bleeds out. They cannot sustain this without declaring war and issuing a nationwide draft. It is a war of conquest so won't carry the same emotional weight as WW2.  OK

2- At some point western support starts to falter, but UA has what they have and will continue to defend. They can only take back territory with offensive weapons, and looks like they are coming.  OK

3- UA forces Russia to the table for concessions. It is up to the UA to determine what they want to give, not the west. This happens only when Crimea is taken this summer. OK

4- Surly continues to be surly. FUCK YOU, I'M NOT SURLY YOU'RE SURLY!

 

[Armybrat 40678]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s true. So what we are trying to do is prepare a shit sandwich so large they choke on it while trying to eat it. 

A Mama Cass sized sandwich. (RIP)

 

[SL Xpress 7504]

3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Maoris got solved.  Even Alfred started the solution to the Viking problem that ended for England at Stamford bridge.   Cancerous cultures had to go.    Mongols had some juice and took a while.   I never said there was not violence throughout the course of human history. But when more civilized societies were at risk of being prayed upon by the less civilized and more violent societies, those violent societies we’re not allowed to continue living next to the more civilized.

You could not logic the Maoris and the Vikings and the Mongols out of violence.   No one was able to convince them to stop murdering and killing and raping and attacking by appealing to their better natures.   You either I had to wipe them out. Or wait until their culture changed. 

On a long enough time line every culture gets wiped out. 

My point remains it's less about the righteous mission to wipe out sociopathic cultures, and more about the mission of surviving by fielding a military force more effective than the sociopaths in the first place. And along the way, your culture is likely to do some sociopathic things as well. 

[Chad Fuck 17503]

1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

To add to my post above, both the Russians and Ukrainians fly the Soviet SU 25, (Ukraine is down to around a dozen in service from what I can find on the internet) which was the Soviet Union's answer to the A-10. It's a very similar platform. 30mm autocannon (only two barrels), 11 hard points for rockets/bombs/missiles, heavily armored tub for the pilot, subsonic, etc, etc, etc. They've been getting shot down left and right by both sides. Even if we could suppress Russian SAMs and provide top cover a slow, low flying  plane like the A-10 or SU-25 is a prime target for any schmuck that can use MANPADS. The only thing in Ukraine in shorter supply than artillery barrels is trained pilots, and it would be dumb to waste them flying slow ground attack aircraft. 

I often wonder where the Russians got the idea for the SU-25.

[SL Xpress 7504]

3 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

Apparently they're Leopard 2A4s. I do not have the expertise to identify various models of Leopards based on looking at pictures. But the comments I'm finding from people who claim to be able to do that are saying that's what they are. I had some limited concerns they were Leopard I's. Which still would have been great, but much better that they're Leopard 2A4s, even if they're not the promised 2A6's coming later. 

[BabaYaga 15202]

48 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

The HAWK is a system from the 60's.  Had no idea they were even still operational.  

[MissingInAction 24765]

I watched "Tears of the Valley" about the War of Yom Kippur. The Isrealis held back and destroyed over 100 soviet supplied tanks with 6-10 of our Patton tanks. 

They did have a strategic advantage being parked up on ramps which put them above the axis of the Syrian tank barrels, but still. 

I mark this as one of the first examples of how shitty soviet Era equipment is/was.

[MillerEP 30339]

 

 

[Rimbo 25752]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

What Russia could get away with in terms of human waves in 1944 won't fly in 2023...

You missed the most important difference between those two time periods.

In 1944, Russia was the beneficiary of American lend-lease. In 2023, they are the opponent of our beneficiary.

Those human waves in 1944 were all bearing equipment stamped with "Made in the USA." This year's equivalent have no such supplies.

[Brisketexan 104465]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I agree. But I’m worried Western support will wane if UKR isn’t able to push Russia back to their borders this year.

If we start to reduce arming UKR, they’ll be forced to negotiate a settlement that gives Russia more of UKR, Putin survives, and Russia goes back to late-Soviet era lifestyle.

A fair worry.

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

You're overly pessimistic.  

Maybe pessimistic, but not overly so...see below.

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

This isn't an unfounded thought and should not be dismissed.  I am worried that the heavier support is arriving too late in theater and the window is closing.  While we should see this matter thru in my opinion, that isn't necessarily what will happen.  If Western support erodes for any reason the Ukrainians will be forced to make a deal while on their knees and with no real recourse.  Our attention spans are short, and real progress needs to happen in the near term.  I fear the Ukrainians have but months really to win this thing, if this drags must past the fall, I fear support will falter.  

This is a very realistic concern and take.

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hate that we have this thread, but I love the contributions from all. Thank you. 

Here is where I see this ending up. 

1- Russia bleeds out. They cannot sustain this without declaring war and issuing a nationwide draft. It is a war of conquest so won't carry the same emotional weight as WW2. 

2- At some point western support starts to falter, but UA has what they have and will continue to defend. They can only take back territory with offensive weapons, and looks like they are coming. 

3- UA forces Russia to the table for concessions. It is up to the UA to determine what they want to give, not the west. This happens only when Crimea is taken this summer.

4- Surly continues to be surly. 

Maybe optimistic, but I like it.  Point 3 is key.  Even if larger supporters like the US falter, and dial back on their support....you think the Ukrainians will quit?  Or shit, if we tell western europe "fuck it, you're on your own," doesn't Poland see that as "cool....so let's go get shit DONE!"?  

The ultimate resolution will be up to Ukraine.  But I also see that such ultimate resolution, when weighed against the price of continued all-out war, may result in a resolution that leaves some pre-2014 Ukrainian territory in Russian hands.  Because the only other options are complete defeat and unconditional surrender of one side or the other, and that's a hard resolution to achieve.

[Rimbo 25752]

2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

It's rare post-1940 to see someone so nakedly support appeasement.  

There's a reason for that.

Not nearly rare enough, and there's a reason for that, too. 🤬

[InkaUtexas 25426]

There is no QUIT for Ukraine. That is the key. They quit, they lose their nation. They have experienced that in the past and don't see them giving up again. 

[Rimbo 25752]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

 

[The Dog 43771]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Brisketexan 104465]

2 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Do we know if Estonia got one?  Will be in Tallinn in a coupla months, would love a snapshot with that bad boy.

[Gengs1 2583]

Can they ship a few to USA, I’ll gladly park this thing in front of the house with Ukrainian flags to show support and fuck the HOA

[RDCanecutter 26239]

3 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Did you read this book in 7th grade like I did?  Because it is exactly the same premise.  Look down front.  There's you M-60 man.

I see what may be a sawed-off M-60 on the left with no ammo, and an M-16 on the right on a bipod with a long belt of ammo. Somebody crossed the streams.

[RDCanecutter 26239]

3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

That's just dead wrong.  They don't almost always win.  It's the opposite.  

But, but, but Zeihan wiggled his eyebrows around while acting like he was the first to think of things..?

[BamaATL 16592]

3 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

Can they ship a few to USA, I’ll gladly park this thing in front of the house with Ukrainian flags to show support and fuck the HOA

Choosing battle with an HOA may well also be a war of choice that has horrible consequences.  

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

7 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

Can they ship a few to USA, I’ll gladly park this thing in front of the house with Ukrainian flags to show support and fuck the HOA

Hi Tony Buzbee

[Chad Fuck 17503]

9 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

I see what may be a sawed-off M-60 on the left with no ammo, and an M-16 on the right on a bipod with a long belt of ammo. Somebody crossed the streams.

Mercenary time travel is a treacherous business. 

[InkaUtexas 25426]

I hate allergies. Video is well done. 

 

 

[Felix 598]

47 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I watched "Tears of the Valley" about the War of Yom Kippur. The Isrealis held back and destroyed over 100 soviet supplied tanks with 6-10 of our Patton tanks. 

They did have a strategic advantage being parked up on ramps which put them above the axis of the Syrian tank barrels, but still. 

I mark this as one of the first examples of how shitty soviet Era equipment is/was.

Yeah know issue with most Soviet era tanks. Because of the small turrets and later the auto-loaders they had very limited main gun elevation so if you had the high ground you could shoot them and they couldn't shoot you.

[The Dog 43771]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

^Don't buy it

Edited February 24, 2023 by MillerEP