Русский корабль - иди нахуй

Rimbo · February 25, 2023

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

Leopards and Abrams are force multipliers and are more than a match for any of the trash Ivan throws out there.

Everything I've read or watches says the same - that the IFVs we are sending will have the biggest impact.

Everyone wants to play with the new toys:

The Dog · February 25, 2023

Rimbo · February 25, 2023

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

I don't agree with this. It's a symbiotic relationship on any number of levels. Not necessarily a healthy one, mind you. But it's without a doubt a two way relationship, not the one way relationship you seem to be suggesting.

The best way to describe the relationship between China and the United States is the male and female anglerfish.

China is the male.

Those who know...

Gatorubet · February 25, 2023

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

470 T-72 and better Russian tanks.

I doubt Russia has 470 T-72 tanks available for their offensive

utee94 · February 25, 2023

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

I don't agree with this. It's a symbiotic relationship on any number of levels. Not necessarily a healthy one, mind you. But it's without a doubt a two way relationship, not the one way relationship you seem to be suggesting.

The amount of pain that would be involved in disentangling from China would be incalculable.

There's a China thread for this discussion, but the truth is that it is both calculable and tolerable.

InkaUtexas · February 25, 2023

One year. My house. Replaced the flag I bought day 1.

File won't load. Small, and condensed.

InkaUtexas · February 25, 2023

GF figured it out.

Dear Russia. Go Fuck Yourself.

Adding UT and Texas I think.

InkaUtexas · February 25, 2023

3 hours ago, Felix said:

Pretty sure that was an M1A1 with 120mm main gun, but the 105mm on the M1 and M1IP could definitely kill them too. Maybe not through a berm though.

91? 1st Armor. Using 105's they own Iraqi tanks like Texas owns aggy.

atomheartbevo · February 25, 2023

Edited February 25, 2023 by atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo · February 25, 2023

Crazy that it's been a year, this is one of the first times we saw MANPADs doing their thing in Ukraine.

SL Xpress · February 25, 2023

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

There's a China thread for this discussion, but the truth is that it is both calculable and tolerable.

Tolerable is a matter of opinion/perspective.

Calculable is a fiction.

Rimbo · February 25, 2023

11 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Tolerable is a matter of opinion/perspective.

Calculable is a fiction.

Bah. People said the same nonsense about Japan in the 1990s. It was as phony then as the talk about China now.

For one thing, China has no interest in being "intertwined" with anyone.

For another, it's just no contest. There's only one superpower in the world right now, economically.

https://www.worlddata.info/largest-economies.php

It's the USA and everyone else. And that number for the PRC is falling rapidly right now.

Orange&White · February 25, 2023

3 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

The amount of pain that would be involved in disentangling from China would be incalculable.

I don’t think this thread is the place for it, nor the other China thread, but I’d love to see the surly collective take on this topic.

Parliament · February 25, 2023

5 hours ago, Parliament said:

So...can our Abrams/Leopard/Challenger tanks punch through T 72's?

5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yes, Proven multiple times in Iraq.

I've read anecdotes that when Abrams's were able to get into Iraqi lines and get side shots, they could punch all the way through a T60 turret and take out the one beside it as well.

Judge Roybeanbag · February 25, 2023

4 hours ago, MillerEP said:

Here’s a good article on the tank situation. SIAP.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-many-tanks-does-ukraine-have-why-more-now-79z65hrqx

SmokeyTheBear · February 25, 2023

30 minute discussion with a lot of what we've been discussing but some new threads of points.

The Dog · February 25, 2023

15 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

30 minute discussion with a lot of what we've been discussing but some new threads of points.

Ok I watched a bit but Zeihan got WAAAAAYYY over his skis saying there will be a nuclear exchange.

Putin doesn't want that and there won't be one. He is NOT attacking a NATO country at this point.

utee94 · February 25, 2023

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

Tolerable is a matter of opinion/perspective.

Calculable is a fiction.

Wrong.

1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

Bah. People said the same nonsense about Japan in the 1990s. It was as phony then as the talk about China now.

For one thing, China has no interest in being "intertwined" with anyone.

For another, it's just no contest. There's only one superpower in the world right now, economically.

https://www.worlddata.info/largest-economies.php

It's the USA and everyone else. And that number for the PRC is falling rapidly right now.

Right.

And this is the wrong thread for this discussion. If you insist on being wrong, do it on a different thread.

Gatorubet · February 25, 2023

6 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Great read. Interesting tidbit

Quote

GEN. MARK MILLEY: We needed to make sure that Russia did not attack or invade a NATO Article Five country, so under the direction of the president and the secretary of defense, we prepared plans to rapidly deploy U.S. forces to all of the NATO frontline countries — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, etc. On the day of the invasion, we went ahead and deployed U.S. military ground forces to each one of those countries. It was very rapid, within 24 hours of the invasion. The purpose was to send a clear, unambiguous message to Putin not to attack a NATO Article Five country. President Biden said we will defend every inch of NATO territory; he was serious about it and backed it up with U.S. forces.

Chad Fuck · February 25, 2023

Crazy that it's been a year, this is one of the first times we saw MANPADs doing their thing in Ukraine.

That one will definitely go in the Greatest Hits reel.

SL Xpress · February 25, 2023

45 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Wrong.

Right.

And this is the wrong thread for this discussion. If you insist on being wrong, do it on a different thread.

There are always unintended consequences that are simply incalculable. There are risks involved in any big event that cannot be accounted for no matter how complex the modeling system used, and no matter the computing power utilized. Thinking something different is dangerous. No one anticipated WWI occurring when Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated. Nor what it would look like. No one thought allowing Lehman Brothers to fail would bring the world economies to their knees and completely freeze private capital markets. No one thought Aid For Families with Dependent Children would lead to a culture where fatherless homes became the norm. There are butterfly events that can't be measured, and when it's something that's already a known tsunami, the consequences for sure cannot be measured. It doesn't mean actions shouldn't be taken, but pretending like all the consequences for those actions are known and manageable is a level of hubris that can lead to disaster. Maybe that's what needs to happen. Not specifically about China, but about any decision we make that we perceive moves us as individuals or tribes in a forward direction. Being fearful of consequences is no way to go through life. But neither is pretending like we know everything about what the outcomes are going to be.

For example, I feel strongly it's important to support Ukraine in their war against Russia to the maximum extent possible, outside of putting NATO boots on the ground (or in the air, for that matter). But pretending like we know everything that a victory over Russia - or even an impending victory - brings to the world is silly. We don't. But the chance we take by allowing Russia to conquer Ukraine feels like an unacceptable risk to me on any number of levels. So I'm strongly in favor that the world takes that risk. But that's different from knowing exactly what the outcome will eventually be.

Rimbo · February 25, 2023

Meanwhile, in the world where people discuss the topic of a thread in the thread dedicated to that topic...

SL Xpress · February 25, 2023

Here's a great feature on partisan fighters in Kherson and the Kherson region talking about what it was like living under Russian occupation, including one person who was imprisoned and only set free in a prisoner swap a few months after being arrested. There's also some terrific coverage on a special forces operation to blow up a Russian command post on the left bank of the Dnipro River. I don't know how many other people saw the coverage from a week ago. It was all over twitter. But this shows the cost they paid (two dead, 3 critically wounded, including one in a coma from shrapnel in his brain) and shows a little about the people who made up the squad. They don't exactly seem like SEAL TEAM personnel. Just ordinary folks who took up arms to defend their country. My butt sphincter puckered up when one of the boats' motor was dead. I'm still not completely clear how they got out of there. I think one of the working boats went back across the river to pick them up? I don't know.

SL Xpress · February 25, 2023

Here's a year long retrospective look at the war in Ukraine from Vice News. I believe I've seen all of this video coverage previously over the course of the year in various updates, but having it packaged in one 45 minute video with 3 expert commentators really helps to pack and extra punch. The quality of the coverage, the danger the reporters put themselves to cover events, is inspiring. I've sent this link to a number of people I know who are relatively indifferent about the war with the message, if you only watch one thing about the war in Ukraine, watch this.

I especially became choked up at the 19 minute mark when Michael Clarke, the British defense expert featured regularly on Sky News among other places, talks about the watershed moment when Zelensky took videos of himself walking around Kyiv with various members of his cabinet, saying we're not going anywhere. I remember following Simon Ostrovsky's coverage in 2014 in the Donbas region, and ever since then Vice's coverage of Ukraine has retained a different importance to me versus other media sources. In any case, as I said, even though I've seen all of this footage before, having it packaged in a single 45 minute video as a year long retrospective was very powerful for me. I hope it is for you as well.

Gatorubet · February 25, 2023

Jag är svensk!!

MissingInAction · February 25, 2023

12 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

One year. My house. Replaced the flag I bought day 1.

File won't load. Small, and condensed.

Same.

This is from the inside facing out so it is hanging correctly.

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt · February 25, 2023

10 hours ago, The Dog said:

Ok I watched a bit but Zeihan got WAAAAAYYY over his skis saying there will be a nuclear exchange.

Putin doesn't want that and there won't be one. He is NOT attacking a NATO country at this point.

Haven’t watched the video but what is it that you think Putin wants and doesn’t want?

I think it’s safe to say those deciding the West’s response to all this don’t share your confidence.

SaucyJack · February 25, 2023

48 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Same.

This is from the inside facing out so it is hanging correctly.

What iron doing?

MissingInAction · February 25, 2023

6 minutes ago, SaucyJack said:

What iron doing?

Don't own one. I get my clothes washed and pressed at dry cleaners.

statsman · February 25, 2023

There is a path to victory, but it relies on US support. The other nations are pulling more than their weight in humanitarian support, but the U.S. is supplying the bulk of the armament (and it has to be restated-Ukraine no longer has domestic production).

US support may not require bipartisan support (it has bipartisan support) right now, but there is a damned good chance it will, if this war stalemates. Yes, there is an isolationist wing in the GOP. There is also a hawk wing that wants to see the defense budget go up as we commit hundreds of billions to Ukraine defense. There is also a wing of the Democratic Party not thrilled with this emphasis, nor all our allies. Each party is going to have to concede a little to pull together (I think the Dems will need to agree to more non-Ukraine defense spending than they want and the GOP will have to agree to more Ukraine support shouldered by the US than they want). If the administration tries to go it alone, and the economy turns south, and primary challenges from the left come in, and domestic politics gets dicey, … well, let’s hope this stays a bipartisan issue of support.

The US President visited Kyiv and pledged support. I support him on that. This is now a US war- I saw a photo of the commemorative stone in Kyiv for Biden’s visit. A Ukraine loss is a U.S. loss. This country has sucked at bipartisanship for almost 20 years now (I blame advanced statistics- the same thing that screwed up MLB by turning every franchise into Weaver’s Orioles- for telling pols that the key is to play to their base).

There is also a path to Russian victory. It involves dragging this war on and letting US domestic politics lose interest and support. I hope our leaders are up to this.

SmokeyTheBear · February 25, 2023

11 hours ago, The Dog said:

Ok I watched a bit but Zeihan got WAAAAAYYY over his skis saying there will be a nuclear exchange.

Putin doesn't want that and there won't be one. He is NOT attacking a NATO country at this point.

I largely agree but there is certainly a path to it that he touched on. IF Ukraine loses, and IF Putin goes for a NATO country, and somehow IF retains power during that, I can definitely see an exchange of nukes. Maybe not on US soil but as a defensive play on major European cities. There's a lot of IFs to work thru that I don't think we will ever see. But certainly reinforces the need to give Ukraine whatever they need to cripple Russia permanently. I love Zeihan's perspective and analysis, you (the royal you) have to take it in broad strokes though. His doom and gloom is just opportunity for innovation and new industry IMO.

SL Xpress · February 25, 2023

11 minutes ago, statsman said:

There is a path to victory, but it relies on US support. The other nations are pulling more than their weight in humanitarian support, but the U.S. is supplying the bulk of the armament (and it has to be restated-Ukraine no longer has domestic production).

US support may not require bipartisan support (it has bipartisan support) right now, but there is a damned good chance it will, if this war stalemates. Yes, there is an isolationist wing in the GOP. There is also a hawk wing that wants to see the defense budget go up as we commit hundreds of billions to Ukraine defense. There is also a wing of the Democratic Party not thrilled with this emphasis, nor all our allies. Each party is going to have to concede a little to pull together (I think the Dems will need to agree to more non-Ukraine defense spending than they want and the GOP will have to agree to more Ukraine support shouldered by the US than they want). If the administration tries to go it alone, and the economy turns south, and primary challenges from the left come in, and domestic politics gets dicey, … well, let’s hope this stays a bipartisan issue of support.

The US President visited Kyiv and pledged support. I support him on that. This is now a US war- I saw a photo of the commemorative stone in Kyiv for Biden’s visit. A Ukraine loss is a U.S. loss. This country has sucked at bipartisanship for almost 20 years now (I blame advanced statistics- the same thing that screwed up MLB by turning every franchise into Weaver’s Orioles- for telling pols that the key is to play to their base).

There is also a path to Russian victory. It involves dragging this war on and letting US domestic politics lose interest and support. I hope our leaders are up to this.

I want to believe. Let's see what they're able to accomplish with new armor and newly constituted divisions. I'll never underestimate the Ukrainians, if given the equipment. If they can get back the momentum in the same way they did in September, many parts of this Russian army have shown they'll rout. The Ukrainians are true believers in their cause. The Russian troops? Not so much.

BamaATL · February 25, 2023

6 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

I largely agree but there is certainly a path to it that he touched on. IF Ukraine loses, and IF Putin goes for a NATO country, and somehow IF retains power during that, I can definitely see an exchange of nukes. Maybe not on US soil but as a defensive play on major European cities. There's a lot of IFs to work thru that I don't think we will ever see. But certainly reinforces the need to give Ukraine whatever they need to cripple Russia permanently. I love Zeihan's perspective and analysis, you (the royal you) have to take it in broad strokes though. His doom and gloom is just opportunity for innovation and new industry IMO.

I have read some of his stuff, and some it has merit, but in my opinion he cherry picks some valid points and ignores something that isn't quantifiable. He point's toward geography and natural resources being the principle reason the US became and is a super power. To a large to degree that is true, but he completely glosses over the biggest reason/resource we actually have; which is our people, our diversity, and our collective freedom to innovate. That isn't quantifiable, you can't quite count an abstract concept like innovation as it relates to increased immigration like you can count how many navigable rivers we have or oceans we border. Nor can you count/quantify the ability for a normal person to invent revolutionary concepts and quite literally come from nothing to being a global game changer. While it's true that can happen in other parts of the world, and it does, historically speaking it doesn't happen at near the rate it does here. The truth is, the US does well because ordinary people, from all sorts of backgrounds have opportunity. All the rest of that is just icing on the cake.

BamaATL · February 25, 2023

Just to add to that a bit as it applies to this situation. At the beginning of all this, if I remember correctly it was only the DIA the predicted that the Ukrainians would offer fierce resistance to an invasion. 14 out 15 other intel agencies all predicted a quick fall Kyiv or worse. So how did everyone get this so wrong? In my opinion, its over reliance on analytics. Sure, you can quantify how many tanks somehow has, the number of troops, artillery, etc. What you can't quantify is the human abstract. Analytics told our intel people that there was no chance for the Ukrainians, so don't send heavier weapons, etc. What analytics can't figure is a quantity for poor Russian leadership, the Ukrainian will for freedom and their desire to fight for it.

Analytics has its place, and it is valuable, but over reliance on it is dangerous, short sighted, and ultimately wrong. This is the conundrum for all strategic planners globally (and not just war), it's valuable insight, but to what level?

Scheiss Meister · February 25, 2023

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Just to add to that a bit as it applies to this situation. At the beginning of all this, if I remember correctly it was only the DIA the predicted that the Ukrainians would offer fierce resistance to an invasion. 14 out 15 other intel agencies all predicted a quick fall Kyiv or worse. So how did everyone get this so wrong? In my opinion, its over reliance on analytics. Sure, you can quantify how many tanks somehow has, the number of troops, artillery, etc. What you can't quantify is the human abstract. Analytics told our intel people that there was no chance for the Ukrainians, so don't send heavier weapons, etc. What analytics can't figure is a quantity for poor Russian leadership, the Ukrainian will for freedom and their desire to fight for it.

Analytics has its place, and it is valuable, but over reliance on it is dangerous, short sighted, and ultimately wrong. This is the conundrum for all strategic planners globally (and not just war), it's valuable insight, but to what level?

This war is the perfect proof of Napoleon's observation that the moral is to the physical as three is to one. Or, in American, it ain't the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of fight in the dog.

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt · February 25, 2023

Hoping our leaders are up to the task feels like a bad plan.

Brisketexan · February 25, 2023

Just to add to that a bit as it applies to this situation. At the beginning of all this, if I remember correctly it was only the DIA the predicted that the Ukrainians would offer fierce resistance to an invasion. 14 out 15 other intel agencies all predicted a quick fall Kyiv or worse. So how did everyone get this so wrong? In my opinion, its over reliance on analytics. Sure, you can quantify how many tanks somehow has, the number of troops, artillery, etc. What you can't quantify is the human abstract. Analytics told our intel people that there was no chance for the Ukrainians, so don't send heavier weapons, etc. What analytics can't figure is a quantity for poor Russian leadership, the Ukrainian will for freedom and their desire to fight for it.
Analytics has its place, and it is valuable, but over reliance on it is dangerous, short sighted, and ultimately wrong. This is the conundrum for all strategic planners globally (and not just war), it's valuable insight, but to what level?

Good post.
It’s about figuring out the balance: how much weight do you give objective measures (how many tanks you have) vs subjective measures (how well you know how to use tanks).
Think of it this way: it’s why many of the greatest quarterbacks aren’t necessarily great specimens on paper. Back in the day, I thought Ryan Leaf would be a better draft pick than Peyton Manning because of the objective physical tools. But it turns out that what each guy’s head could do (or not do) was way more determinative of their success.
Russia started this war with a lot of strong pieces in strong positions on their side of the chess board, compared to Ukraine’s fewer and weaker pieces. If both chess players were is similar skill, Russia wins in a few weeks. Turns out that in this metaphor, Russia sucked at chess, and wasted multiple capital pieces in stupid attacks on an opponent with limited prices…but great skill, aptitude, and desire.
The concern is that at some level, no amount of skill differential can make up for the chess piece differential. If you give me a fully loaded side of the board, and give Kasparov a King and two pawns…I’m gonna beat him, even though he’s 1,000x the player that I am. The real question is, where is that line. If you give him a Bishop and a Knight as well, then does he beat me, the inferior player with all the pieces? Maybe (I mean, he’s Kasparov, and I’m pretty rusty). It’s really difficult to game that out in the real world, with armies and gear and ammo and weather and logistics and strategies and small squad tactics etc.
But I believe in Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. I believe that this is the most important conflict in the past 80 years. I believe that helping Ukraine win is the most important foreign policy task we’ve had in my lifetime.

tokamak · February 25, 2023

Ten different models of tank in the field seems like a logistical nightmare for Ukraine. Better than no tanks, but I wonder if it won’t be as decisive as advantage as it’s being hoped.

statsman · February 25, 2023

15 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Hoping our leaders are up to the task feels like a bad plan.

Like a second marriage, it’s the triumph of optimism over experience

BamaATL · February 25, 2023

3 minutes ago, statsman said:

Like a second marriage, it’s the triumph of optimism over experience

Meh, I'd say it's more like, "Well, we were drunk last night, but we got here." Maybe that should be the national motto.

Pato del Muerto · February 25, 2023

17 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If you give him a Bishop and a Knight as well, then does he beat me, the inferior player with all the pieces? Maybe

I don’t know how good a player you are or were, but my answer is yes he beats you.

that actually sounds like an interesting way to handicap a chess match

SmokeyTheBear · February 25, 2023

16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Good post.
It’s about figuring out the balance: how much weight do you give objective measures (how many tanks you have) vs subjective measures (how well you know how to use tanks).
Think of it this way: it’s why many of the greatest quarterbacks aren’t necessarily great specimens on paper. Back in the day, I thought Ryan Leaf would be a better draft pick than Peyton Manning because of the objective physical tools. But it turns out that what each guy’s head could do (or not do) was way more determinative of their success.
Russia started this war with a lot of strong pieces in strong positions on their side of the chess board, compared to Ukraine’s fewer and weaker pieces. If both chess players were is similar skill, Russia wins in a few weeks. Turns out that in this metaphor, Russia sucked at chess, and wasted multiple capital pieces in stupid attacks on an opponent with limited prices…but great skill, aptitude, and desire.
The concern is that at some level, no amount of skill differential can make up for the chess piece differential. If you give me a fully loaded side of the board, and give Kasparov a King and two pawns…I’m gonna beat him, even though he’s 1,000x the player that I am. The real question is, where is that line. If you give him a Bishop and a Knight as well, then does he beat me, the inferior player with all the pieces? Maybe (I mean, he’s Kasparov, and I’m pretty rusty). It’s really difficult to game that out in the real world, with armies and gear and ammo and weather and logistics and strategies and small squad tactics etc.
But I believe in Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. I believe that this is the most important conflict in the past 80 years. I believe that helping Ukraine win is the most important foreign policy task we’ve had in my lifetime.

I continue to wonder if we have a strategy of a drip approach. If we just gave Ukraine all the toys, then Putin has cover with his populous that this war was always unfair and that might keep him in power. If we do a constant drip of toys to match his meat waves, then it increases the pain on the populace to force regime change. That has to be the end game in this conflict. Russia has to change and I think if Putin is obviously out matched, then he has to retreat, remessage and possibly retain power and that structure remains for the world to deal with.

I think we also have to factor a resupply lag time with equipment. All the supporting countries have to find out how to backfill (with mainly American weapon systems) to remain war ready if this fully escalates. There has to be some hedging on goods delivered to the front lines vs potential value of goods staying home in case they are needed for their own defenses.

The Dog · February 25, 2023

Armybrat · February 25, 2023

17 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

I don't agree with this. It's a symbiotic relationship on any number of levels. Not necessarily a healthy one, mind you. But it's without a doubt a two way relationship, not the one way relationship you seem to be suggesting.

The amount of pain that would be involved in disentangling from China would be incalculable.

Shorter checkout lines at Walmart & Harbor Freight?

Schulz2.0 · February 25, 2023

BamaATL · February 25, 2023

16 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

I continue to wonder if we have a strategy of a drip approach. If we just gave Ukraine all the toys, then Putin has cover with his populous that this war was always unfair and that might keep him in power. If we do a constant drip of toys to match his meat waves, then it increases the pain on the populace to force regime change. That has to be the end game in this conflict. Russia has to change and I think if Putin is obviously out matched, then he has to retreat, remessage and possibly retain power and that structure remains for the world to deal with.

I think we also have to factor a resupply lag time with equipment. All the supporting countries have to find out how to backfill (with mainly American weapon systems) to remain war ready if this fully escalates. There has to be some hedging on goods delivered to the front lines vs potential value of goods staying home in case they are needed for their own defenses.

In my opinion, the Ukrainians are employing a modern day Fabian strategy. The best and simplest example of this is George Washington during the Revolutionary War. Washington kept getting the British to chase him around and exhaust themselves doing so, in the hopes that eventually the French would arrive combined with the limited resources the British had in country. Once the timing was right, it was time to strike. Obviously, this proved to be correct (This is a gross oversimplification of it). The Ukrainians are doing the same thing in a modern warfare landscape waiting for the international coalition of equipment and munitions to be in place.

Interestingly, there are rumors that the Russians are now attempting to shift to a parallel strategy of their own. The thought is that they are attempting to consolidate their gains, only defend (if true this clearly hasn't been fully implemented) and I suppose wait for Chinese weapons. In the meantime, they hope to exhaust Ukrainian resources (I think this is a fools errand with what is coming). However, and again I think that is speaks to how poorly the Russians are lead, the Chinese aren't coming, and whatever weapons they do send will be just enough to maintain the illusion that they are Russia's alley. The truth is, Xi and China love having Russia convinced of this, because it allows them to continually exploit them for pennies on the dollar.

MissingInAction · February 25, 2023

Once Ukraine has their armored divisions ready I predict they make a blitzkrieg to Mariopol , then work north with the armor. Meanwhile an offensive from Kherson towards Crimea begins.

All the while a massive artillery, rocket, missile barage clears them paths towards their objectives.

Advance the armor, "Race to Baghdad style.

Whatever happens it needs to be a two pronged offensive so the orcs can't consolidate a defense.

Edited February 25, 2023 by MissingInAction

SL Xpress · February 25, 2023

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Just to add to that a bit as it applies to this situation. At the beginning of all this, if I remember correctly it was only the DIA the predicted that the Ukrainians would offer fierce resistance to an invasion. 14 out 15 other intel agencies all predicted a quick fall Kyiv or worse. So how did everyone get this so wrong? In my opinion, its over reliance on analytics. Sure, you can quantify how many tanks somehow has, the number of troops, artillery, etc. What you can't quantify is the human abstract. Analytics told our intel people that there was no chance for the Ukrainians, so don't send heavier weapons, etc. What analytics can't figure is a quantity for poor Russian leadership, the Ukrainian will for freedom and their desire to fight for it.

Analytics has its place, and it is valuable, but over reliance on it is dangerous, short sighted, and ultimately wrong. This is the conundrum for all strategic planners globally (and not just war), it's valuable insight, but to what level?

Maybe.

I didn't base my opinion on analytics, though. I based it on what the results were when the real Russian army crossed the border in force and wiped out the Ukrainians with ease in the Donbas. I vastly underestimated how much the Ukrainians had reformed their military in terms of leadership and overall effectiveness, even if they hadn't upgraded their equipment that much. I also grossly overestimated Russian ability to gain air superiority over the battlefield, and how much their investment in their military and the change towards mobility and special forces training had turned their armed forces into a nimble core that could create force multipliers in the conflict. I don't see how it's realistically possible to know for sure what the outcome would be except the way we did.

But man, I'm glad I was completely wrong on pretty much every level. And everyone else right along with me. It's been extremely heartening to witness the Russian Army - and their kleptocratic system as a whole - be so incompetent across the board. It's like watching a cartoon villain be a complete idiot, except with a ton of unnecessary death and destruction for a people who haven't done anything to deserve it except crave a right to self determination.

Pato del Muerto · February 25, 2023

First part sounds like what patron did in Sicily and then northward thru Italy.

SL Xpress · February 25, 2023

3 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Once Ukraine has their armored divisions ready I predict they make a blitzkrieg to Mariopol , then work north with the armor. Meanwhile an offensive from Kherson towards Crimea begins.

All the while a massive artillery, rocket, missile barage clears them paths towards their objectives.

Advance the armor race to Baghdad style.

Whatever happens it needs to be a two pronged offensive so the orcs can't consolidate a defense.

Like the Kharkiv/Kherson offensive.

Sign In

Русский корабль - иди нахуй

Recommended Posts

Rimbo 25752

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

AUS-97HORN

closetohumping

InkaUtexas

Posted Images

The Dog 43771

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Rimbo 25752

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Gatorubet 30064

Link to comment

Share on other sites

utee94 15742

Link to comment

Share on other sites

InkaUtexas 25426

Link to comment

Share on other sites

InkaUtexas 25426

Link to comment

Share on other sites

InkaUtexas 25426

Link to comment

Share on other sites

atomheartbevo 89362

Link to comment

Share on other sites

atomheartbevo 89362

Link to comment

Share on other sites

SL Xpress 7504

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Rimbo 25752

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Orange&White 5516

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Parliament 14112

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Judge Roybeanbag 11796

Link to comment

Share on other sites

SmokeyTheBear 5562

Link to comment

Share on other sites

The Dog 43771

Link to comment

Share on other sites

utee94 15742

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Gatorubet 30064

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Chad Fuck 17503

Link to comment

Share on other sites

SL Xpress 7504

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Rimbo 25752

Link to comment

Share on other sites

SL Xpress 7504

Link to comment