Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[686 3450]

Girkin with a real rant calling Gerasimov a cretin and saying they’ll be naked and barefoot by mid year without a Chinese lend-lease.

[Gatorubet 30275]

1 hour ago, tokamak said:

Ten different models of tank in the field seems like a logistical nightmare for Ukraine. Better than no tanks, but I wonder if it won’t be as decisive as advantage as it’s being hoped. 

I think you make your tank battalions once you get a pod of the same kind of tanks.  There should be a bunch of T-72 battalions, as that seems to be the most numerous MBT.    One thing the tank coalition chart does not show us is exactly how many of the many many Russian captured tanks have been returned to service in Ukraine. I would love to know the numbers of T 72, T 80 and T 90 tanks that were abandoned after some track problem or they ran out of gas.   I also think that a country begging for tanks will not talk a lot about how many tanks it already has.  Which is likely why we do not know.

And if you have five of this or seven of that that are mechanically different than the others, there will always be a place for essentially a good mobile artillery unit - which is not to say that four or five of one kind will not be helpful supporting Ukrainian infantry.

Even if they find out that a few are prone to breaking down too quickly, you could put them on some high ground protecting the approach to Kyiv or some other strong point.  if it won’t run, it can fire as a fixed emplacement.

 I agree that the creative Ukrainians welcome and can find a spot for everyone.   

[NAVY 6747]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Just to add to that a bit as it applies to this situation.  At the beginning of all this, if I remember correctly it was only the DIA the predicted that the Ukrainians would offer fierce resistance to an invasion.  14 out 15 other intel agencies all predicted a quick fall Kyiv or worse.  So how did everyone get this so wrong?  In my opinion, its over reliance on analytics.  Sure, you can quantify how many tanks somehow has, the number of troops, artillery, etc.  What you can't quantify is the human abstract.  Analytics told our intel people that there was no chance for the Ukrainians, so don't send heavier weapons, etc.   What analytics can't figure is a quantity for poor Russian leadership, the Ukrainian will for freedom and their desire to fight for it.  

Analytics has its place, and it is valuable, but over reliance on it is dangerous, short sighted, and ultimately wrong.  This is the conundrum for all strategic planners globally (and not just war), it's valuable insight, but to what level?

Analytics sucks at predicting the future. Analysts review historical and current data and draw a conclusion about what might happen next. 

I tell my students this all the time: If your analytical model does not perform well in the real world, you haven’t included some really important variables PLUS you may not even know what those variables are. 

My point is that analytics and machine learning are tools. The raw material they need is data. Excluding important variables because they were unobservable, too hard to collect or because their importance was unknown will lead to poor predictive/forecasting results with those tools. 

Analysts have a much better view of what was previously unobservable and I bet the probability of their latest conclusions coming to fruition is increasing over time. 

[686 3450]

UA drone terrorizing Russian squad:

[BamaATL 16593]

Maybe they are just shit stupid.  

[Parliament 14278]

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Just to add to that a bit as it applies to this situation.  At the beginning of all this, if I remember correctly it was only the DIA the predicted that the Ukrainians would offer fierce resistance to an invasion.  14 out 15 other intel agencies all predicted a quick fall Kyiv or worse.  So how did everyone get this so wrong?  In my opinion, its over reliance on analytics.  Sure, you can quantify how many tanks somehow has, the number of troops, artillery, etc.  What you can't quantify is the human abstract.  Analytics told our intel people that there was no chance for the Ukrainians, so don't send heavier weapons, etc.   What analytics can't figure is a quantity for poor Russian leadership, the Ukrainian will for freedom and their desire to fight for it.  

Analytics has its place, and it is valuable, but over reliance on it is dangerous, short sighted, and ultimately wrong.  This is the conundrum for all strategic planners globally (and not just war), it's valuable insight, but to what level?

I think it's also fair to say Russia did a good job of hiding the fact their military is riddled with corruption and incompetence.

[The Dog 44073]

 

[Pato del Muerto 52543]

11 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Maybe they are just shit stupid.  

LEONID JENKINSKIY!!!

[686 3450]

Klitschko. Will be interesting to see later if it’s just a photo op or if the guy is heading east. Fighters fight.

[BamaATL 16593]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

LEONID JENKINSKIY!!!

If you liked that one, just wait, there's more!

 

Has Farmer's seen this before and covered it?

[Schulz2.0 28997]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

If you liked that one, just wait, there's more!

 

Has Farmer's seen this before and covered it?

[Walser 1109]

I speak weekly with a Ukrainian student learning conversational English. We have weekly lesson plans on various subjects but we are free to deviate from these. She is in her twenties (no pics) and her maturity and English comprehension is quite good. Better than most of us fucksticks. 

Delicate subject but talk of the war has started to take front stage. She is not shy nor traumatized and speaks freely. She has been sharing some humor, news and stories. A couple quick ones:

She lives well outside the war zone but in the first days it was naturally very scary for everyone. She said there are naturally Russians spies around and the rumor was they would paint the roofs of houses for the Russian planes to bomb. People would be checking their roofs every day and put flour on the stairs to detect anyone using them. Often the police would get called by neighbors on other neighbors reporting spies on their roofs. Nothing ever came of that danger where she lives.

She said in addition to normal taxes everyone she knows donates what they can to a general military fund. I find that very admirable; these people are all-in.

That's all I got. If you got a particular question I can try and work it in during our next session. 

[MissingInAction 25139]

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

Like the Kharkiv/Kherson offensive.

Cities develop where they do for a reason. 

Logistics rule in trade and warfare.

[686 3450]

I don’t understand why Lukashenko would admit this:

[Schulz2.0 28997]

Russians making slow gains to the north of Bakhmut.

 

[686 3450]

Resnikov getting out of a Leopard: “Excuse me, where is the road to Moscow?”

[686 3450]

flashback to first great stolen Russian armor vid:

[MissingInAction 25139]

That was their "Come and Take It" moment.

Fuck Russia in the babushka ass.

[Brisketexan 105188]

34 minutes ago, 686 said:

I don’t understand why Lukashenko would admit this:
 

Because he sold his soul and life to Putin to stay in power back when the Belarussian people were ready to hang him.  He no longer has any life or existence outside of what Putin decides he can have.

I will enjoy the day we see his bloated, bloodsoaked corpse being dragged through the streets.

[RDCanecutter 26459]

1 hour ago, 686 said:

Klitschko. Will be interesting to see later if it’s just a photo op or if the guy is heading east. Fighters fight.
 

 

 

 

 

No way that dude can fit inside a tank.

[Gatorubet 30275]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

 

If this goes on another year we’ll be seeing Ladas with large buckets of dirt clods and improvised sunroofs - driven by 60 year-olds with the best dirt clod throwing arms. 

[The Dog 44073]

 

[Gatorubet 30275]

A while back we were talking about how totally absorbed Russia is in its World War II history past in a way that even patriotic Americans can’t understand. It’s just freaky cultish. I could not remember the term for it. I just found a video that expresses it well. “Pobedobesie!”.  Try to imagine this shit showing up on American TV 80 years after the war 

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Spoiler: pessimism incoming 

 

I think China is going to supply weapons to the Ruskies.

[pops 7006]

9 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

A while back we were talking about how totally absorbed Russia is in its World War II history past in a way that even patriotic Americans can’t understand. It’s just freaky cultish. I could not remember the term for it. I just found a video that expresses it well. “Pobedobesie!”.  Try to imagine this shit showing up on American TV 80 years after the war 

 

She has no idea the weird shit I'll watch today

[RDCanecutter 26459]

10 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

A while back we were talking about how totally absorbed Russia is in its World War II history past in a way that even patriotic Americans can’t understand. It’s just freaky cultish. I could not remember the term for it. I just found a video that expresses it well. “Pobedobesie!”.  Try to imagine this shit showing up on American TV 80 years after the war 

 

I could pass on the parades, but the Trampoline Girls were kinda nice.

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

15 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Spoiler: pessimism incoming 

 

I think China is going to supply weapons to the Ruskies.

Not a popular opinion but I think it's time for everyone to feel the pain of cutting China off. We've been too siloed in our own world that we need a correction. Hopefully with the benefit of finally unifying our populace similar to post 911.

[Gatorubet 30275]

4 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

I could pass on the parades, but the Trampoline Girls were kinda nice.

At Florida I was the Alpha Tau Omega, social service coordinator. It was often difficult to get my brother cretins to participate in charity events.  My Epiphany was getting the Delta Gamma sorority to participate in a trampoline jumping marathon on our front yard across from the administration building.

I got the university president to jump on the trampoline covered by local news, and I got the city to double the red light time on the intersection in front of our house so the pledges could get donations.  That said, the huge draw was cute sorority girls in athletic shorts and halter tops jumping on a trampoline - a project everyone could support.     Outstanding participation by the Brothers.  We collected a bunch of money for charity. It was a pleasant sight. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

2 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

Not a popular opinion but I think it's time for everyone to feel the pain of cutting China off. We've been too siloed in our own world that we need a correction. Hopefully with the benefit of finally unifying our populace similar to post 911.

My 3 year old has a higher pain tolerance than the US populace.

China knows that.

[MillerEP 30493]

 

[MillerEP 30493]

 

[The Dog 44073]

 

[Armybrat 40859]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

If you liked that one, just wait, there's more!

 

Has Farmer's seen this before and covered it?

Driver’s not in good hands.

[Schulz2.0 28997]

18 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

My 3 year old has a higher pain tolerance than the US populace.

China knows that.

Millions of unemployed Chinese isn't a problem for Xi? 

[Gatorubet 30275]

20 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

My 3 year old has a higher pain tolerance than the US populace.

China knows that.

 

“I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out asking to speak with the manager about a slight inconvenience….”

[MillerEP 30493]

 

[MillerEP 30493]

 

[MillerEP 30493]

 

[MillerEP 30493]

 

[NAVY 6747]

Git you some 

 

[BamaATL 16593]

30 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

No bueno, if true (no reason to suspect it isn't) Bakhmut would be nearly encircled with no way out without taking heavy fire.  At the same time, I have read, that the wagner situation was desperate in terms of munitions.  Leaving Bakhmut will be tough on UFA in a psychological way and russian trolls will act like they have just entered Paris.  Here's to hoping the UFA got its people out of there and that it's all a feint for a crushing counter offensive.  Perhaps by ceding territory they got the wagnerites to exceed what little their supply could actually get to them.  

And yes, I realize that might all be too much to hope for, but fuck those guys, may they all drive stolen Kia's into mine fields.  

[Gatorubet 30275]

 

Quote

“Russia’s economy is hollowing out. It is not in freefall, nor is the current economic crisis grounds to assume a political collapse is in the offing. Rather the forecast figures in hand for Russia this year reflect two grim realities: the economy was already operating considerably under its real capacity prior to the invasion and the structural transformation of the economy the Bank of Russia has talked about is happening. Whatever resilience that transformation will eventually achieve will most likely come at a steep price in declining living standards, productivity, and incomes without any countervailing ‘export boom’ to hide the inadequacies and contradictions of the country’s economic policies.”

Short version: hiding how fucked they are for now, but they will be fucked eventually due to sanctions.   they made so much money on highly priced gas and oil in the run up and immediately after the invasion that the savings account is stopping the pain for the short term. Having lost their gas and oil market, and that market experiencing lower prices for what they can sell, the rapidly diminishing piggy bank propping them up will eventually not be enough to stop the pain.

We tend to forget the economic hardships of Great Britain after World War II.  It took them decades to dig out of the amount they spent on the war and the loss of income from their former colonies. And nobody was sanctioning Britain after the war.  

I hope we demand that sanctions continue forever after Ukraine wins, unless half of all Russian export revenue goes to Ukraine’s recovery 

[SHOOTER12 8818]

17 hours ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Here’s a good article on the tank situation.  SIAP.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-many-tanks-does-ukraine-have-why-more-now-79z65hrqx

 

Negged for paid subscription link.

[atomheartbevo 89766]

5 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I have read some of his stuff, and some it has merit, but in my opinion he cherry picks some valid points and ignores something that isn't quantifiable.  He point's toward geography and natural resources being the principle reason the US became and is a super power.  To a large to degree that is true, but he completely glosses over the biggest reason/resource we actually have; which is our people, our diversity, and our collective freedom to innovate.  That isn't quantifiable, you can't quite count an abstract concept like innovation as it relates to increased immigration like you can count how many navigable rivers we have or oceans we border.   Nor can you count/quantify the ability for a normal person to invent revolutionary concepts and quite literally come from nothing to being a global game changer.  While it's true that can happen in other parts of the world, and it does, historically speaking it doesn't happen at near the rate it does here.  The truth is, the US does well because ordinary people, from all sorts of backgrounds have opportunity.  All the rest of that is just icing on the cake.  

While our immigration is a massive factor in that it has been both a source of cheap, disposable labor, but also a massive contributor to our tech innovations (Manhattan Project, space program, electronics/computing in general, were all built up with the help of Europeans/Jews fleeing Germany, or Germans fleeing the Soviets), I think our natural resources and geography could be our biggest factor.  We've never been at the mercy of another nation in terms of food or fuel production, and nobody is going to fuck with us in any meaningful way.

Unlike most of Asia and Europe, we haven't had to rebuild our industrial centers/production since the 1860s (and even then they were quickly rebuilt, and we did so even as we expanded rapidly westward (thanks also to the afore-mentioned immigrants)).  Large Asian and European population/industrial centers have had to be rebuilt, sometimes multiple times, over the last century, and both of those continents, particularly Europe, have had massive brain drains as a result of those wars.  

Meanwhile, here in the US, everybody from Eli Whitney up to John Deere and then on to Thomas Edison and Henry Ford and their successors., have not had to deal with the shit that Europen inventors/innovators have (I know Edison's history, so don't correct me about his "inventions") every few decades.  In some cases, those European problems have benefited America, either because of brain drain and the talent coming here, or because we were able to move goods and open markets when they were trying to put roofs over their heads.

This sums up even what the victors had to deal with:

4 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

We tend to forget the economic hardships of Great Britain after World War II.  It took them decades to dig out of the amount they spent on the war and the loss of income from their former colonies. And nobody was sanctioning Britain after the war.  

Ukraine is in the same boat - after they win, they've got a lot of rebuilding to do, but I think Europe, the US, Japan, etc. are going to help with that ASAP.

Edited February 25, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[SL Xpress 7517]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

No bueno, if true (no reason to suspect it isn't) Bakhmut would be nearly encircled with no way out without taking heavy fire.  At the same time, I have read, that the wagner situation was desperate in terms of munitions.  Leaving Bakhmut will be tough on UFA in a psychological way and russian trolls will act like they have just entered Paris.  Here's to hoping the UFA got its people out of there and that it's all a feint for a crushing counter offensive.  Perhaps by ceding territory they got the wagnerites to exceed what little their supply could actually get to them.  

And yes, I realize that might all be too much to hope for, but fuck those guys, may they all drive stolen Kia's into mine fields.  

The defense of Bakhmut has been heroic. I'm hoping for a similar result following the loss of Severodonetsk and Lyschansk. I just don't want those guys defending the city getting trapped in there. That's a bigger concern for me than holding the city at this point.

[MissingInAction 25139]

3 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

First part sounds like what patron did in Sicily and then northward thru Italy. 

I'm sure the Sicilians refer to him as Patron Patton.

[Pato del Muerto 52543]

 Fucking phone 

[The Dog 44073]

 

[MissingInAction 25139]

15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

While our immigration is a massive factor in that it has been both a source of cheap, disposable labor, but also a massive contributor to our tech innovations (Manhattan Project, space program, electronics/computing in general, were all built up with the help of Europeans/Jews fleeing Germany, or Germans fleeing the Soviets), I think our natural resources and geography could be our biggest factor.  We've never been at the mercy of another nation in terms of food or fuel production, and nobody is going to fuck with us in any meaningful way.

Unlike most of Asia and Europe, we haven't had to rebuild our industrial centers/production since the 1860s (and even then they were quickly rebuilt, and we did so even as we expanded rapidly westward (thanks also to the afore-mentioned immigrants)).  Large Asian and European population/industrial centers have had to be rebuilt, sometimes multiple times, over the last century, and both of those continents, particularly Europe, have had massive brain drains as a result of those wars.  

Meanwhile, here in the US, everybody from Eli Whitney up to John Deere and then on to Thomas Edison and Henry Ford and their successors., have not had to deal with the shit that Europen inventors/innovators have (I know Edison's history, so don't correct me about his "inventions") every few decades.  In some cases, those European problems have benefited America, either because of brain drain and the talent coming here, or because we were able to move goods and open markets when they were trying to put roofs over their heads.

This sums up even what the victors had to deal with:

Ukraine is in the same boat - after they win, they've got a lot of rebuilding to do, but I think Europe, the US, Japan, etc. are going to help with that ASAP.

And the Gubment contract boners going around in the US will be lobbying heavily for continued support of our Freedom Fighting Brothers and Sisters in Ukraine.

[atomheartbevo 89766]

4 hours ago, BamaATL said:

In my opinion, the Ukrainians are employing a modern day Fabian strategy.  The best and simplest example of this is George Washington during the Revolutionary War.  Washington kept getting the British to chase him around and exhaust themselves doing so, in the hopes that eventually the French would arrive combined with the limited resources the British had in country.  Once the timing was right, it was time to strike.  Obviously, this proved to be correct (This is a gross oversimplification of it).  The Ukrainians are doing the same thing in a modern warfare landscape waiting for the international coalition of equipment and munitions to be in place.

Washington does not get nearly enough credit for the campaign he waged, and the people he surrounded himself with.

4 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Interestingly, there are rumors that the Russians are now attempting to shift to a parallel strategy of their own.  The thought is that they are attempting to consolidate their gains, only defend (if true this clearly hasn't been fully implemented) and I suppose wait for Chinese weapons.  In the meantime, they hope to exhaust Ukrainian resources (I think this is a fools errand with what is coming).  

I don't think the Chinese could supply them fast enough, even if things opened up a bit, plus the Russian's logistic chains for getting stuff into Ukraine is shit.

But even if they could, the Ukrainians have shorter internal lines to move stuff around, they are fighting on their home turf, and it's easier for them to receive treat and get R&R.