Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Saint Austin 776]

4 minutes ago, ABSR said:

But while symbolic, Kyiv falling doesn’t mean that much.   The Russians can put 20k of skilled soldiers with armor and air superiority into the battle.  But how does that many men  “ hold” a city of 3 Million?   And, while they are traveling through other areas and cities to get there, once they leave to go to Kyiv, unless they leave thousands of troops behind they don’t control that territory anymore.  And they don’t have men to leave behind.

If we think of Ukraine as the size of Texas with 43M people, imagine trying to take and then hold Texas with 50k combat troops and 150k support troops.   You could take Austin or DFW, but how can you hold it, manage your supplies, all the while taking casualties and having a population sniping at you around every corner.

So taking it can be done at a cost, but then keeping it is even harder, or you pull out and give it back to go to a new objective.

Word.

"They want to get us in. Getting out won't be quite so smart and easy." - Union private on the eve of the Battle of Fredericksburg 

Fuck up those Yankees Russians!!

[InkaUtexas 26931]

recent report- Ukrainians shot down an IL-76 transport plane. That would be a big boom and maybe full of troops.

Multiple sources. Usually good ones. 

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by InkaUtexas

[Armybrat 41426]

25 minutes ago, ABSR said:

Military planners talk about a Tooth-to-tail radio, meaning how many support personnel are required to keep one front line fighter in the field.  Tail or support are supply, intel, logistics, cooks, communications, military police, mechanics etc.    These support personnel are soldiers too, but their primary role is not to be in combat, so if they are engaged in significant fighting then that is usually a problem and not good for that force.

So if we say 50k front line combat troops are deployed they could need 3-5 (numbers can vary) support personnel to keep them supported and combat ready.   So with 50k of deployed combat troops and 200k - 250k of total forces deployed (estimate), there is no great reserve force waiting to swoop in.

In Korea, ratioof support/front line troops was about 10/1. for the US Army.

[FartingMonk 3625]

Free free free

[956 Worldwide 35598]

Fucking fascinating from the info side. The Slovak police have released a database of identified pro-Russian trolls, propagandists, and disinformators operating in Slovak, including individual accounts, groups, pages, etc.  Good on them but this shouldn’t have taken so long. 

[BillyGoatHill 4421]

4 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

In Korea, ratioof support/front line troops was about 10/1. for the US Army.

Still about the same.

[Brisketexan 106973]

22 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

I expect Kiev to fall within a couple days but I hope I'm wrong.

It will fall.  It's inevitable.  Taking it will be hard.

Holding it, on the other hand.....will be brutal.....

7 minutes ago, ABSR said:

But while symbolic, Kyiv falling doesn’t mean that much.   The Russians can put 20k of skilled soldiers with armor and air superiority into the battle.  But how does that many men  “ hold” a city of 3 Million?   And, while they are traveling through other areas and cities to get there, once they leave to go to Kyiv, unless they leave thousands of troops behind they don’t control that territory anymore.  And they don’t have men to leave behind.

If we think of Ukraine as the size of Texas with 43M people, imagine trying to take and then hold Texas with 50k combat troops and 150k support troops.   You could take Austin or DFW, but how can you hold it, manage your supplies, all the while taking casualties and having a population sniping at you around every corner.

So taking it can be done at a cost, but then keeping it is even harder, or you pull out and give it back to go to a new objective.

This, especially the bolded.  Russian soldiers, you can't stand on a corner and hold a position -- snipers will see you.  You aren't safe parked in your APC.  Javelins will find you.  You can't sleep in that nice apartment building you just requisitioned.  A grenade will go through the window.  Don't stand.  Don't sit.  Don't sleep.  Just die. 

And who will be the one killing you?  A Ukrainian soldier?  That pretty blonde in the building across the way?  You won't know.  You'll be dead.  Sweet dreams.  Enjoy the quagmire.

[FartingMonk 3625]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

recent report- Ukrainians shot down an IL-76 transport plane. That would be a big boom and maybe full of troops.

Multiple sources. Usually good ones. 

 

Huge explosions being reported. Must be that paratroop drop they are trying.

[DDD Dad 14661]

17 minutes ago, JerrysJheriCurl said:

TLDR: Anyone that posts CR miedra needs to kick rocks and take a vacation from Surly for a few days.

@immamac @blacklab

[Brisketexan 106973]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Fucking fascinating from the info side. The Slovak police have released a database of identified pro-Russian trolls, propagandists, and disinformators operating in Slovak, including individual accounts, groups, pages, etc.  Good on them but this shouldn’t have taken so long. 

Well, those people are no longer just trolls and propagandists.  They are actively assisting a state that has launched a war of aggression.  Those people are all combatants now.  They should be treated as such.

[Doc Reeves 6434]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Fucking fascinating from the info side. The Slovak police have released a database of identified pro-Russian trolls, propagandists, and disinformators operating in Slovak, including individual accounts, groups, pages, etc.  Good on them but this shouldn’t have taken so long. 

meh, it’s kinda like the “don’t snitch” rule on the playground. If you’re honorable and just doing shit some people don’t like, it’s not acceptable to turn them in. 

If you’re a dick who’s bullshit is going to get everyone in trouble however…

[Beantown Express 2.0 6597]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, those people are no longer just trolls and propagandists.  They are actively assisting a state that has launched a war of aggression.  Those people are all combatants now.  They should be treated as such.

Yeah but how many of them currently post on Surly?

[956 Worldwide 35598]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, those people are no longer just trolls and propagandists.  They are actively assisting a state that has launched a war of aggression.  Those people are all combatants now.  They should be treated as such.

Well, first you have to determine which and what profiles equal actual people and who they are. And also, Facebook is legit evil and won’t help with this. Not talking out of my ass on that.

[atomheartbevo 90664]

5 hours ago, troph said:

so question for the smarties - what's the chance that there are substantial US covert operations in Ukraine right now?  does the US step up their efforts behind the scenes on this fight now that the Russians have proven to be beatable with a force that's not even close to on par with the US or even other western allies?  I know troops won't be sent, that's a non-starter (arguments can be made why we should), but what about further support behind the scenes, and plausible deniability at our involvment?

edit - just saw the statement more air defense weaponry coming to Ukraine.

5 hours ago, SimonBolivar said:

Doesn't seem like we think this thing is ending tonight...

 

 

I doubt we have US troops in Ukraine - too much of a flashpoint.  That's not necessarily bad though - it's not quite like Afghanistan either where we had CIA/Green Berets/etc. training the Mujahideen. All we have to do is let their folks cross the border, we train them on the spot, then send them back across the border.  And we have plenty of recon and satellites that can keep the Ukrainians informed of Russian doings without us putting our folks at risk.

Me thinks that while the air defense systems are to help with defending the cities and/or air bases, assuming this goes on for a while,  they are probably going to help with carving out areas in western Ukraine where the Russian air forces can't operate, allowing Ukrainian troops/resistance to get weapons/supplies/etc. across the border and into Ukraine proper and distributed.

If you can start carving out parts of Western Ukraine where the Russians are afraid to send aircraft, that puts the onus on Russian ground troops and at that point, the Russian troops are A) spread extremely thin and B) have massive logistics chains that are vulnerable up and down the chain.  Molotov cocktails can't do much to a tank, but they can wreck plenty of your ordinary wheeled vehicles.

And if Russia is having problems securing Eastern Ukraine, I don't see how they can operate in-depth across The River.

[Pescado_Rojo 19592]

1 hour ago, Kel Varnsen said:

Keep drinking! We about to get them titty pics.

[maninblack 7975]

37 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Maybe Afghanistan will invade Russia

They're probably more restrained than the government's that have invaded Afghanistan

[Doc Reeves 6434]

Just now, maninblack said:

They're probably more restrained than the government's that have invaded Afghanistan

Unless you’re a woman, amiright

[Armybrat 41426]

18 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Before you declare this ultimatum you better first explain what miedra means

Ain’t that some kind of Mediterranean wine?

[TwiceHorn 32092]

1 hour ago, 27-25 said:

Putin wants to call Ukraine an artificial creation?  At least a majority/plurality of people in Ukraine are ethnic Ukrainians.  Want to really talk about artificial entities?  I present to you Kaliningrad.

Fuck Russia, as you said.

Konigsberg, imo.

[Brisketexan 106973]

Shoulda grabbed a bottle of this probably shitty vodka when we passed through Kiev. Would raise a toast to those tough bastards with it tonight. I imagine they could all use a shot or two….

[InkaUtexas 26931]

3 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Ain’t that some kind of Mediterranean wine?

Yeah, you should try some. 

[SimonBolivar 11067]

 

[GabrielsHorn 2246]

Some very grim prognostications coming out:

 

[phdhorn 6225]

From WaPo:  I found it interesting and it sure sounded like it the past month.  I think a lot of it is due to the ingrained nationalistic/cultural zeitgeist among European countries.  I think Ukrainians really didn't think Russia would attack because they have a genetic disposition to thinking that while leadership has been brutal, down deep Russians and Ukrainians are brothers and sisters and they are too much alike to do that to each other - and yes even since 2014:

Ukrainians shrugged off predictions of war. Now it’s a mad dash to leave.
WAPO Feb 25, 2022 5:20 PM ET

It was an attack few Ukrainians anticipated would happen, certainly not on this scale. For weeks, their president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and his advisers downplayed the possibilities of a Russian assault, even chastising the United States and European countries for constantly warning that an attack would happen. There were no evacuation plans or other elements of a comprehensive strategy to keep Ukrainians safe and secure in the event Russian tanks rolled in.

On Wednesday night, restaurants and bars had been crowded with well-dressed people hours before the attack. Many residents attended the opera or strolled with their families past Kyiv’s centuries-old cathedrals. Airplanes arriving in Ukraine were full.

“We never expected this at all,” said Ludmila, referring to the Russian assault. She and her colleagues withheld their family names out of concern for their security.

By Thursday, the fears of a nation could be seen in the long queues at ATMs, gas stations and grocery stores to stock up on food and necessities. The fears could be seen in the massive traffic jams of cars filled with families desperately trying to leave the city. And they could be seen at the bus station, where passengers – carrying what little they could stuff in small suitcases – waited in snaking lines.

[Armybrat 41426]

10 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Yeah but how many of them currently post on Surly?

Take that to the cr >>>>>

[52-80 19377]

1 minute ago, phdhorn said:

From WaPo:  I found it interesting and it sure sounded like it the past month.  I think a lot of it is due to the ingrained nationalistic/cultural zeitgeist among European countries.  I think Ukrainians really didn't think Russia would attack because they have a genetic disposition to thinking that while leadership has been brutal, down deep Russians and Ukrainians are brothers and sisters and they are too much alike to do that to each other - and yes even since 2014:

Ukrainians shrugged off predictions of war. Now it’s a mad dash to leave.
WAPO Feb 25, 2022 5:20 PM ET

It was an attack few Ukrainians anticipated would happen, certainly not on this scale. For weeks, their president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and his advisers downplayed the possibilities of a Russian assault, even chastising the United States and European countries for constantly warning that an attack would happen. There were no evacuation plans or other elements of a comprehensive strategy to keep Ukrainians safe and secure in the event Russian tanks rolled in.

On Wednesday night, restaurants and bars had been crowded with well-dressed people hours before the attack. Many residents attended the opera or strolled with their families past Kyiv’s centuries-old cathedrals. Airplanes arriving in Ukraine were full.

“We never expected this at all,” said Ludmila, referring to the Russian assault. She and her colleagues withheld their family names out of concern for their security.

By Thursday, the fears of a nation could be seen in the long queues at ATMs, gas stations and grocery stores to stock up on food and necessities. The fears could be seen in the massive traffic jams of cars filled with families desperately trying to leave the city. And they could be seen at the bus station, where passengers – carrying what little they could stuff in small suitcases – waited in snaking lines.

Most of the world didnt think it would happen either

[Nivek 17419]

54 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

More for a history/economics thread, but over the last 75 years or so, a lot of the alliances that the US has joined/created/built-up were done to either prevent the conditions that led to the previous two world wars or other regional conflicts, or in a lot of cases to expand America's economic reach around the globe.

We have the US Navy fighting pirates off the coast of Africa not because we have an affinity for those African nations, but because those pirates were going after ships that had ties to American companies (or were even owned by said companies, even if flagged in other countries).  We have American soldiers all over Africa not because we love those countries or hate whatever form of ISIS is kicking around, but because American businesses rely on the raw materials, etc. coming out of those countries, and we can't afford to have ISIS 4.0 sweeping up a bunch of those countries into some kind of caliphate that is shut off to us, or we don't want to have to find ourselves taking on ISIS 4.0's caliphate or whatever when they threaten our actual allies.

That's a big part of why we keep getting involved in places that on the surface make no sense.  We liked to pretend we do this stuff because we're the good guys, and at times we do, but ultimately you have to be cynical and follow the money.

 

wait this was unknown?  

[Bevo 13904]

9 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Ain’t that some kind of Mediterranean wine?

Island owned by Portugal off the African Coast, Madeira. From vacation

 

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by Bevo

[SmokeyTheBear 5569]

Kyiv looks a lot darker tonight

[DDD Dad 14661]

4 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Some very grim prognostications coming out:

 

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3873]

1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

 

Read a few hours back on this feed and NLAWs are now in theater in addition to St. Javelin.

NLAW(Next generation Light Anti-tank Weapon) is a lighter more powerful, than Javelins, one man antitank weapon.

[DDD Dad 14661]

2 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Take that to the cr >>>>>

Ironic post is ironic.

[GabrielsHorn 2246]

9 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

 

Vindman and Marco Rubio are both semi-confirming this. 
 

edit:

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by GabrielsHorn

[F250 29203]

29 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Before you declare this ultimatum you better first explain what miedra means

[Chewy's Hairy Horn 868]

22 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

As a parent of a 1st grader during the time of COVID, you getting pretty damn good at quickly scanning school pics for your kid’s eyes. Instinctively I did the same to this one and found what may as well have been my daughter top right.  Blood ran cold at the thought.  
 

Fuck Putin and his bastards.

[SimonBolivar 11067]

1 minute ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Read a few hours back on this feed and NLAWs are now in theater in addition to St. Javelin.

NLAW(Next generation Light Anti-tank Weapon) is a lighter more powerful, than Javelins, one man antitank weapon.

an official Ukrainian twitter account announced that NLAWs had been given out to the Civilian Defense.

[Armybrat 41426]

1 minute ago, DDD Dad said:

Ironic post is ironic.

I shoulda put a winkie up with it. 

[Dahobbs 18345]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Shoulda grabbed a bottle of this probably shitty vodka when we passed through Kiev. Would raise a toast to those tough bastards with it tonight. I imagine they could all use a shot or two….

And today I learned the Ukrainian word for vodka is the Russian word for "burn" (or really close to it).  

[SimonBolivar 11067]

1 minute ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Marco Rubio  

He's gloating a bit tonight...

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

32 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

“Mmmm  yeah   I love it baby   Why don’t you screen cap your location on google maps and email it to me   I can’t resist screen caps of google maps”

“Oh baby. I’m getting so wet right now. You know what turns me on? Men who  open the breach of their buddies weapons and jam mud inside. Oh yeah baby.”

[4doorsMoreWhores 107]

1 hour ago, Doc Reeves said:

Strawberry Fields  ftw

Strawberry Hill, bro

[atomheartbevo 90664]

5 hours ago, brakeman said:

fuck these guys.

Paraphrasing comments from a friend on FB who served in Afghanistan and Iraq - that driver/commander are just sloppy and undisciplined as fuck - by fucking around like that, putting aside the war crime aspect (our military would probably put an American crew on trial for deliberately doing that), the vehicle is deviating from their mission, and putting themselves in a very vulnerable situation.  They should be hauling ass through there, and just that brief slowdown/maneuver opens them up to Javelin fire.

Long term though - every little stunt like that makes the Ukrainians even more angry, and more importantly, if this drags on, a crew fucking around like that could drive up on a VBIED.

He's actually wondering when we will start seeing IEDs/VBIEDs.  Can't be too far into the future.

[atomheartbevo 90664]

5 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I feel like it has to be because he wants the country intact when he takes it.  you'd typically shell the place for longer before you go in to soften up everything, i feel like, but they fired an hour's worth of rockets then started the march in.

A couple of the high-level analysts on twitter are wondering if he's trying to capture parts of their infrastructure intact and then use it as leverage in talks.  They were talking about some power plants, etc. that could be used to cripple Ukraine.

[Newdoc 3511]

5 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

an official Ukrainian twitter account announced that NLAWs had been given out to the Civilian Defense.

[Parliament 14607]

How much training does the average guy off the street need to use an NLAW effectively?

[Doc Reeves 6434]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Shoulda grabbed a bottle of this probably shitty vodka when we passed through Kiev. Would raise a toast to those tough bastards with it tonight. I imagine they could all use a shot or two….

Oh, don’t worry the war hasn’t been going on too long. They’ll have them for tonight at least. Certainly, I haven’t been drinking as much for a bit (trying to lose some lbs) but I’m raising a glass tonight

I feel strangely connected to the Ukrainians. This has the same flavor as Texas’ Independence story. 

God Speed and Give ‘‘em Hell boys.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

38 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

This is fairly common in crypto world. People posing as women to gain access to funds or promotions. 
 

25 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Fucking fascinating from the info side. The Slovak police have released a database of identified pro-Russian trolls, propagandists, and disinformators operating in Slovak, including individual accounts, groups, pages, etc.  Good on them but this shouldn’t have taken so long. 

Link? 

[Dahobbs 18345]

9 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Read a few hours back on this feed and NLAWs are now in theater in addition to St. Javelin.

NLAW(Next generation Light Anti-tank Weapon) is a lighter more powerful, than Javelins, one man antitank weapon.

Is it more powerful? I know it has much shorter range, but is also a lot easier to deploy. I'd be a bit surprised if the smaller missile was actually more powerful. Certainly makes sense that they are deploying these with Civilian Defense and, I assume, keeping the Javelins for their military units. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by Dahobbs

[Doc Reeves 6434]

3 minutes ago, 4doorsMoreWhores said:

Strawberry Hill, bro

Damnit.  Fucking gettin old sucks. 
 

+ 

[phdhorn 6225]

22 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Fucking fascinating from the info side. The Slovak police have released a database of identified pro-Russian trolls, propagandists, and disinformators operating in Slovak, including individual accounts, groups, pages, etc.  Good on them but this shouldn’t have taken so long. 

csb time:  about 15 years ago I was in Prague with a group.  We were having fun downtown and one guy with us, about 75 at the time, stopped into a novelty shop and bought a Russian Ushanka hat (the kind with the furry side flipped up on all sides) with a big red star pin in the front.  Granted at that time it was almost a chic novelty to wear old Soviet stuff, but this guy's age and everything I cringed when he bought it.  He looked like he could pass for an old, serious Politburo hack.  He wore it out to the sidewalk and I noticed some dirty looks, and I didn't feel too good about him wearing it.  I asked him to take off the red star and once he did he got no looks.

I experienced for the first time there real-life feeling a lot of Europeans had for that regime.  And that was back in the "harmless" days when wearing campy Russian stuff was okay.  I'd imagine it's not so cool now, even moreso.

/csb