Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Rimbo 27,107]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

They are old, no longer in production, and kept alive by expensive modernization for existing inventory. The replacement, the Precision Strike Missile, is just now entering service. I suspect our reluctance to provide it stems partly from lack of ability to replace at scale (yet), partly due to lack of available modernized missiles, partly due to the cost of missile relative to something like a GMLRS rocket (ATACMS is ~8x-10x more expensive), and maybe partly a concern for how effective (or lack there of) they would be. I'm sure we also have concerns about how they would be used, but I wouldn't be surprised if that is just an easy excuse to hide the real reasons. 

Yeah, that's more or less basically reasonable, except for one thing: Do we have any near-term plans to use them? Because I think Ukraine might, and might get better use of 'em.

[SydneyCarton 49,538]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

They are old, no longer in production, and kept alive by expensive modernization for existing inventory. The replacement, the Precision Strike Missile, is just now entering service. I suspect our reluctance to provide it stems partly from lack of ability to replace at scale (yet), partly due to lack of available modernized missiles, partly due to the cost of missile relative to something like a GMLRS rocket (ATACMS is ~8x-10x more expensive), and maybe partly a concern for how effective (or lack there of) they would be. I'm sure we also have concerns about how they would be used, but I wouldn't be surprised if that is just an easy excuse to hide the real reasons. 

Haven’t we read several times that the US also put a distance governor on our HIMARS in Ukraine? For the same reasons of striking in Russia? If Im remembering correctly, why don’t we just remove those governors on HIMARS? How far does that get them? 
 

Or am I making this shit up?

[Rimbo 27,107]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

Haven’t we read several times that the US also put a distance governor on our HIMARS in Ukraine? For the same reasons of striking in Russia? If Im remembering correctly, why don’t we just remove those governors on HIMARS? How far does that get them? 
 

Or am I making this shit up?

My vague and slightly less-reliable recollection is that we didn't give them the long-range ammo.

[SydneyCarton 49,538]

2 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

My vague and slightly less-reliable recollection is that we didn't give them the long-range ammo.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3762042-us-secretly-modified-himars-for-ukraine-to-prevent-kyiv-from-shooting-long-range-missiles-into-russia/
 

it’s vague. They say we “modified” them, which implies something other than just not giving ammo. Also, HIMARS systems also can launch ATACMS, or whatever they’re called, so the “not providing ammo” seems kinda “duh” in this scenario. 
 

it’s all vague, but it seems like there is something here. But maybe it’s another 30 km? Maybe 50. Maybe nothing. Maybe we go fuck ourselves. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by SydneyCarton

[Rimbo 27,107]

I mean, I'm not in charge. Which is a good thing, because I'd have hit the big red button and made Moscow glow in the dark by now. Which is not the right thing to do.

The right thing to do is to send Ukraine all kinds of weapons and training and maybe tell Poland that if they were to send troops towards Moscow we would look the other way and...

actually that's probably not smart either, but it would be fun

[Handcruser 2,817]

I mean, I'm not in charge. Which is a good thing, because I'd have hit the big red button and made Moscow glow in the dark by now. Which is not the right thing to do.
The right thing to do is to send Ukraine all kinds of weapons and training and maybe tell Poland that if they were to send troops towards Moscow we would look the other way and...
actually that's probably not smart either, but it would be fun

We need to give them the tools to obliterate all Russian air defense systems, in country or not.

[Bevo 13,939]

2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

They are old, no longer in production, and kept alive by expensive modernization for existing inventory. The replacement, the Precision Strike Missile, is just now entering service. I suspect our reluctance to provide it stems partly from lack of ability to replace at scale (yet), partly due to lack of available modernized missiles, partly due to the cost of missile relative to something like a GMLRS rocket (ATACMS is ~8x-10x more expensive), and maybe partly a concern for how effective (or lack there of) they would be. I'm sure we also have concerns about how they would be used, but I wouldn't be surprised if that is just an easy excuse to hide the real reasons. 

Kasparov says it is because "Tragically, influences in the Biden White House also seem to want this. Sullivan, Burns, Kerry, treating this like the Cold War where the evil they know is better than the uncertainty of victory, even if it means undermining the counteroffensive against a war criminal regime".

[NotActuallyALonghorn 5,006]

9 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I doubt we'd ever sell any if that were the case. Besides, our kill switch is an F-22. 

Aren't the F-22's only air to air kills balloons?

[The Dog 44,886]

 

[Dahobbs 18,437]

9 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Aren't the F-22's only air to air kills balloons?

Ha! Technically, yes. But that is also because no one is going to challenge them. Their record in exercises is sterling. 

[The Dog 44,886]

Russia sucks:

 

[Dahobbs 18,437]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3762042-us-secretly-modified-himars-for-ukraine-to-prevent-kyiv-from-shooting-long-range-missiles-into-russia/
 

it’s vague. They say we “modified” them, which implies something other than just not giving ammo. Also, HIMARS systems also can launch ATACMS, or whatever they’re called, so the “not providing ammo” seems kinda “duh” in this scenario. 
 

it’s all vague, but it seems like there is something here. But maybe it’s another 30 km? Maybe 50. Maybe nothing. Maybe we go fuck ourselves. 

My understanding was the modification prevented those systems from firing ATACMS. I'm not aware of any limitations associated with other ammunition like GMLRS, although I wouldn't be surprised if they were essentially GPS locked out of targets in Russia. A general range reduction on standard GMLRS rockets wouldn't make sense given our provision of the GLSDB in order to provide a greater range strike than GMLRS. 

[JMFP 1,126]

40 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Ha! Technically, yes. But that is also because no one is going to challenge them. Their record in exercises is sterling. 

[Schulz2.0 29,313]

2 hours ago, Rimbo said:

Do we have any near-term plans to use them?

Taiwan

[KYHorn 17,681]

 

 

 

[686 3,461]

Pretty great trench clearing footage:

[686 3,461]

Hot wiring a rocket:

[686 3,461]

smoke’em if you got’em.  

[MagicSoccerSpray 1,736]

7 hours ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I still can’t understand why we aren’t providing ATACMS unless some of the reports I read are accurate, that we don’t have enough to give away.  I understand the original excuse of distance and non-escalation but shit man, smoke’em if you got’em.  

 

6 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

They are old, no longer in production, and kept alive by expensive modernization for existing inventory. The replacement, the Precision Strike Missile, is just now entering service. I suspect our reluctance to provide it stems partly from lack of ability to replace at scale (yet), partly due to lack of available modernized missiles, partly due to the cost of missile relative to something like a GMLRS rocket (ATACMS is ~8x-10x more expensive), and maybe partly a concern for how effective (or lack there of) they would be. I'm sure we also have concerns about how they would be used, but I wouldn't be surprised if that is just an easy excuse to hide the real reasons. 

 

But we can sell them to Morocco?

 

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/04/us-approves-524-million-himars-artillery-sale-morocco

 

This is Bullshit. The white house is a bunch of self-deterring pussies.

Edited April 26, 2023 by MagicSoccerSpray

[InkaUtexas 27,050]

Well we have to keep the Moops on our side. 

[KYHorn 17,681]

A little dive into Russia's finances

 Full text:

Spoiler

Russia has published Q1 Financial results on it’s website, and the verdict is catastrophic in two dimensions. 

Firstly, these are the figures that #VladWarCriminal wants you to believe, the publications as filtered through the FSB. Secondly, some basic accounting scrutiny reveals amateurish inflation and reductions of income and costs, designed to convince Joe Vatnik that everything is going according to plan.

You can view the report on archive.minfin.gov.ru/en/

Here is some basic first quarter 2023 headlines published - quoted in Rubles:

Total State income is 5.677 Trn vrs 7.163 Trn in Q1 2022. A fall of -20.8%
Oil and Gas income is 1.635 Trn vrs 2.974 Trn in Q1 2022. A fall of -45%
Income Tax is 340 Bn vrs  435 Bn Q1 2022, a fall of -21.9%

Total Costs is 8.077 Trn vrs 6.029 Trn in Q1 2022, a rise of +34%
State Procurements (i.e Ukraine Invasion Costs) 2.469 Trn vrs Q1 2022, A rise of 55%

The basic accounting anomalies they haven’t bothered to hide are:

They declared a -20.8% fall in total income, and a -45% catastrophic fall in oil and gas income, but claim VAT revenues (remembering oil and gas are the main sources of income), published as 2.693 Trn in 2022, and in 2023.. (insert FSB cut and paste) is 2.693 Trn. It doesn’t take rocket science to conclude if the main source of income upon which VAT income is derived - drops by -45%, you will see a corresponding drop in VAT revenue. But they simply copied last years figure to the 2023 balance sheet to prop up the alleged income for Q1.

The net deficit for Q1 in 2023 is 2.4 Trn (or $29.3 Bn), compared to a 1.1 Trn profit in Q1 2022 (+$14 Bn US), that is a change / loss of ($42 Bn) in the first quarter of 2023!

The full year budget deficit as Vladimir published at the start of 2023 - was 2.9 Trn, of which 2.4 Trn has already been realised 83% 0f it’s forecasted loss (deficit), in the first quarter of 2023. At this rate, russia will reach or exceed a deficit of over 10 Trn Rubles  in 2023 or $1.3 Trillion in 2023. 

The effect of the EU bans on oil and refined products from Russia combined with the G7 price cap of $60 per barrel have now kicked in and have devastating Russia’s revenues. The published figures are highly likely to be Putin propaganda and highly under / over-stated figures designed to hide the real disaster that Putin’s regime has caused through their illegal and murderous invasion of the sovereign country of Ukraine. 

These figures could be much, much worse in reality and this points to Russia depleting it’s wealth fund reserves critically low and the effect of that will be a cut back in procurement for the military, a reduction in payments to both military staff and a massive cut back on payments to state employees. In Russia, the State is the largest employer by a country mile, so cut backs will effect every household across the country. Infrastructure and development costs will be slashed and taxes are going to rocket in every conceivable instrument, including compulsory additional taxation on salaries to support the military and state.

This is what financial meltdown looks like.

 

[Nivek 17,443]

Went in the Estonian orthodox cathedral…they are under the Moscow patriarch (so, psychotic warmonger fuckhead). Oh, and they are SO persecuted (not bombed to oblivion, so STFU). We went in, and I used google to translate their message. As we looked around, I said in a louder than appropriate voice “let’s get the fuck out of this fucking place.”

Who endures the prayer, blows involuntary temptation?

GROOMERS!!

[Schulz2.0 29,313]

7 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

 

But we can sell them to Morocco?

 

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/04/us-approves-524-million-himars-artillery-sale-morocco

 

This is Bullshit. The white house is a bunch of self-deterring pussies.

Agreeing to sell them HIMARS doesn't mean they're getting delivered anytime soon. 

[Schulz2.0 29,313]

 

[Schulz2.0 29,313]

 

[Laxtonto 13,328]

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

A little dive into Russia's finances

 Full text:

  Reveal hidden contents

Russia has published Q1 Financial results on it’s website, and the verdict is catastrophic in two dimensions. 

Firstly, these are the figures that #VladWarCriminal wants you to believe, the publications as filtered through the FSB. Secondly, some basic accounting scrutiny reveals amateurish inflation and reductions of income and costs, designed to convince Joe Vatnik that everything is going according to plan.

You can view the report on archive.minfin.gov.ru/en/

Here is some basic first quarter 2023 headlines published - quoted in Rubles:

Total State income is 5.677 Trn vrs 7.163 Trn in Q1 2022. A fall of -20.8%
Oil and Gas income is 1.635 Trn vrs 2.974 Trn in Q1 2022. A fall of -45%
Income Tax is 340 Bn vrs  435 Bn Q1 2022, a fall of -21.9%

Total Costs is 8.077 Trn vrs 6.029 Trn in Q1 2022, a rise of +34%
State Procurements (i.e Ukraine Invasion Costs) 2.469 Trn vrs Q1 2022, A rise of 55%

The basic accounting anomalies they haven’t bothered to hide are:

They declared a -20.8% fall in total income, and a -45% catastrophic fall in oil and gas income, but claim VAT revenues (remembering oil and gas are the main sources of income), published as 2.693 Trn in 2022, and in 2023.. (insert FSB cut and paste) is 2.693 Trn. It doesn’t take rocket science to conclude if the main source of income upon which VAT income is derived - drops by -45%, you will see a corresponding drop in VAT revenue. But they simply copied last years figure to the 2023 balance sheet to prop up the alleged income for Q1.

The net deficit for Q1 in 2023 is 2.4 Trn (or $29.3 Bn), compared to a 1.1 Trn profit in Q1 2022 (+$14 Bn US), that is a change / loss of ($42 Bn) in the first quarter of 2023!

The full year budget deficit as Vladimir published at the start of 2023 - was 2.9 Trn, of which 2.4 Trn has already been realised 83% 0f it’s forecasted loss (deficit), in the first quarter of 2023. At this rate, russia will reach or exceed a deficit of over 10 Trn Rubles  in 2023 or $1.3 Trillion in 2023. 

The effect of the EU bans on oil and refined products from Russia combined with the G7 price cap of $60 per barrel have now kicked in and have devastating Russia’s revenues. The published figures are highly likely to be Putin propaganda and highly under / over-stated figures designed to hide the real disaster that Putin’s regime has caused through their illegal and murderous invasion of the sovereign country of Ukraine. 

These figures could be much, much worse in reality and this points to Russia depleting it’s wealth fund reserves critically low and the effect of that will be a cut back in procurement for the military, a reduction in payments to both military staff and a massive cut back on payments to state employees. In Russia, the State is the largest employer by a country mile, so cut backs will effect every household across the country. Infrastructure and development costs will be slashed and taxes are going to rocket in every conceivable instrument, including compulsory additional taxation on salaries to support the military and state.

This is what financial meltdown looks like.

 

These numbers are BAD... And they are the sanitized numbers provided by the FSB to show the best-case scenario. Once they people start digging into them, they are going to really highlight how bad the economic state of Russia really is.

Most likely the true money crunch won't really be felt until the Fall or Winter, but with how much the everyday Russian is supported by the central government, at some point there will be a major degradation in goods and services. The problem with this simplified view is that payment of troops and other internal services is "easily" fixed by just printing more rubles. Without an external trade mechanism to punish the inflationary measure of flooding Russia with more rubles, there is no real short-term impact from a lack of revenue generation. Where this becomes a disaster is China is about to feast on any and all exports and when the war is over there most likely will be a huge inflationary spike that will crush the everyday Russian. So we are now looking at the slow degradation of goods entering the market itself and those hardships wont really become impactful until the weather turns cold and there isnt enough food or heat.

Where this gets curious is if they flood the market with Rubles internally, the value of the closeted funds by the various Oligarchs (which are in essence locked on the international stage but can be borrowed against in a secondary manner) is going to plunge. So while they can print rubles to pay everyone, it makes the ruling class that much poorer and even the blackmarket exchange of Rubles is going to crater.

[KYHorn 17,681]

 

 

 

[KYHorn 17,681]

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90,702]

Wow.  And China made sure and publicly confirmed it.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/26/europe/xi-jinping-zelensky-phone-call-intl/index.html

Quote

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke Wednesday with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Moscow’s most important diplomatic partner, in the first phone call between the two leaders since the start of Russia’s invasion.

“I had a long and meaningful phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. I believe that this call, as well as the appointment of Ukraine’s ambassador to China, will give a powerful impetus to the development of our bilateral relations,” Zelensky said.

Quote

Andrii Yermak, head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, described the phone call as “an important dialogue” in a Telegram post Wednesday.

Chinese state broadcaster CCTV also reported the call, during which Xi confirmed that that an envoy would travel to Ukraine and other countries to help conduct “in-depth communication” with all parties for a political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.

Quote

In a briefing on Wednesday, China’s Foreign Ministry said its envoy to Ukraine will be Li Hui, Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs. Li is the former Chinese ambassador to Russia, who served in the post from 2009 to 2019.

The ministry did not provide further details as to when Li would make the trip and which other countries he would be visiting.

Edit: It's a big deal, I think, because this could have easily been pushed down the chain to some lower-level lacky (maybe one of the Chinese EU diplomats), but it was actually Xi, and Chinese state media confirmed it.

Edited April 26, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[Laxtonto 13,328]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wow.  And China made sure and publicly confirmed it.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/26/europe/xi-jinping-zelensky-phone-call-intl/index.html

Edit: It's a big deal, I think, because this could have easily been pushed down the chain to some lower-level lacky (maybe one of the Chinese EU diplomats), but it was actually Xi, and Chinese state media confirmed it.

I am curious if this is a sign that Xi doesn't want to get stuck backing the losing side or is this just theater so that China can keep pushing the peacemaker image on the world stage to help curry favor in places like Africa,  the ME, and Eastern Europe?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

china just had that diplomat say all soviet states lack sovereignty.  if this call was not planned prior to those statements, i'd say it was china's way of officially saying that the diplomat doesn't reflect their actual thoughts.

[atomheartbevo 90,702]

2 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I am curious if this is a sign that Xi doesn't want to get stuck backing the losing side or is this just theater so that China can keep pushing the peacemaker image on the world stage to help curry favor in places like Africa,  the ME, and Eastern Europe?

It could simply be smoothing over ruffled feathers after the Chinese ambassador to France pissed off a shitload of countries with his comments this week about former Soviet states, but these calls probably don't happen spontaneously.

I'm wondering if it's tied to Russia's economic picture starting to come into focus, along with the West continuing to support Ukraine and Ukraine going on the offensive here and there and Russia being unable to dictate the tempo of the war.  And more countries are starting to side with Ukraine as well - Egypt is a major player that China has courted in the past.

And then there's India's comments about not wanting to go near Western sanctions for their dealings with Russia.  There's a lot going on here, but for it to be Xi is very interesting.

[Trey3216 15,458]

33 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I am curious if this is a sign that Xi doesn't want to get stuck backing the losing side or is this just theater so that China can keep pushing the peacemaker image on the world stage to help curry favor in places like Africa,  the ME, and Eastern Europe?

[Nivek 17,443]

These numbers are BAD... And they are the sanitized numbers provided by the FSB to show the best-case scenario. Once they people start digging into them, they are going to really highlight how bad the economic state of Russia really is.
Most likely the true money crunch won't really be felt until the Fall or Winter, but with how much the everyday Russian is supported by the central government, at some point there will be a major degradation in goods and services. The problem with this simplified view is that payment of troops and other internal services is "easily" fixed by just printing more rubles. Without an external trade mechanism to punish the inflationary measure of flooding Russia with more rubles, there is no real short-term impact from a lack of revenue generation. Where this becomes a disaster is China is about to feast on any and all exports and when the war is over there most likely will be a huge inflationary spike that will crush the everyday Russian. So we are now looking at the slow degradation of goods entering the market itself and those hardships wont really become impactful until the weather turns cold and there isnt enough food or heat.
Where this gets curious is if they flood the market with Rubles internally, the value of the closeted funds by the various Oligarchs (which are in essence locked on the international stage but can be borrowed against in a secondary manner) is going to plunge. So while they can print rubles to pay everyone, it makes the ruling class that much poorer and even the blackmarket exchange of Rubles is going to crater.

Won’t they just price fix it and use their own natural resources to heat/feed the population?

After the war, it seems like it would be a good opportunity to invest but how? Ukraine is going to have many construction companies making bids, and companies specializing in UXO work will be busy there. What else?

[Nivek 17,443]

I am curious if this is a sign that Xi doesn't want to get stuck backing the losing side or is this just theater so that China can keep pushing the peacemaker image on the world stage to help curry favor in places like Africa,  the ME, and Eastern Europe?

I was thinking that China is going to be asking for contracts to rebuild Ukraine.

[Macanudo 13,358]

3 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Won’t they just price fix it and use their own natural resources to heat/feed the population?

After the war, it seems like it would be a good opportunity to invest but how? Ukraine is going to have many construction companies making bids, and companies specializing in UXO work will be busy there. What else?

They can price fix but what will they be able to sell to their people?   All of those confiscated toilets and microwaves?

[The Dog 44,886]

LOL:

(for those who don't know it's a bit within NAFO to set your location to Langley to enhance the troll job)

[mbtex 697]

Saw this commerative key chains. Don't know how legit they are.

 

https://vitrfire.com/products/military-gift-key-fob-with-custom-engraving?campaign_id=23854775368920321&adset_id=23854775368880321&ad_id=23854775368910321&fbclid=IwAR38HbNl6QE9H2PVzjsrHt_aSqYM4AJ5kPgWMjVmFLTGkY9xaB0vHW2cSl0

Edited April 26, 2023 by mbtex

[JesusSweatDuck 18,185]

36 minutes ago, mbtex said:

Saw this commerative key chains. Don't know how legit they are.

 

https://vitrfire.com/products/military-gift-key-fob-with-custom-engraving?campaign_id=23854775368920321&adset_id=23854775368880321&ad_id=23854775368910321&fbclid=IwAR38HbNl6QE9H2PVzjsrHt_aSqYM4AJ5kPgWMjVmFLTGkY9xaB0vHW2cSl0

If they're legit and the proceeds go to Ukraine, I'm very interested

[RDCanecutter 26,968]

38 minutes ago, mbtex said:

Saw this commerative key chains. Don't know how legit they are.

 

https://vitrfire.com/products/military-gift-key-fob-with-custom-engraving?campaign_id=23854775368920321&adset_id=23854775368880321&ad_id=23854775368910321&fbclid=IwAR38HbNl6QE9H2PVzjsrHt_aSqYM4AJ5kPgWMjVmFLTGkY9xaB0vHW2cSl0

T-72 armor thinner than I thought.

[The Dog 44,886]

tangentially related:

 

[Schulz2.0 29,313]

 

[Schulz2.0 29,313]

 

[Schulz2.0 29,313]

 

[AUS-97HORN 12,062]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

tangentially related:

 

am I allowed to root for the heart attack to complete its work?

 

[The Dog 44,886]

1 minute ago, AUS-97HORN said:

am I allowed to root for the heart attack to complete its work?

 

others are saying it's bullshit. 

[Laxtonto 13,328]

12 minutes ago, The Dog said:

others are saying it's bullshit. 

Well something happened live on air.

If it wasn't a heart attack then the other possible scenarios seem to be a stroke or some other neurological issue

[Parliament 14,639]

Maybe he sharted?

[The Dog 44,886]

2 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Well something happened live on air.

If it wasn't a heart attack then the other possible scenarios seem to be a stroke or some other neurological issue

 

[Rimbo 27,107]

I'm surprised Erdogan didn't fall out of a window.