Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Schulz2.0 29293]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wonder if Russia is going to fuck with Kazakhstan.

Hasn't Russia had enough of getting it ass kicked by a smaller power?

[MillerEP 30907]

 

[The Dog 44865]

 

[HOOKEM4 5198]

9 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

[atomheartbevo 90674]

@The Dog That's pretty wild, he even released the video below - Prigozhin has been ramping up the rhetoric, and it makes me wonder if this is some kind of ultimatum or some kind of event set for May 9th, and meanwhile the infighting is not seen by Putin because he's in his own little bubble.  And there's a lot of talk that the only reason he is doing this stuff publicly is because the MOD is not returning his calls, in which case his days are number.

There's probably some kind of musical chairs going on, with the loser getting the window, and he's trying to get this out there that it's not his fault.

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1654254179785768961

Twitter won't allow the embed because it's age-restricted apparently.

Edited May 4, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[Gatorubet 30789]

32 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

[InkaUtexas 26959]

17 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

With translated subtitles. 

 

[AUS-97HORN 12057]

12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

With translated subtitles. 

 

Prigozhin is serving giblets???   

 

[dimyh 1890]

Soon, very soon this will be playing for you Prigozhin:

 

[Gatorubet 30789]

5 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I don’t think Yellowstone is predicted to cause complete loss of life on North America. 

True.  Just millions dead, significant breakdown of society, economic collapse, increased death of the elderly and pulmonary impaired, massive effect on the world’s agriculture and devastating harm to America’s breadbasket, and maybe years of less sunshine.  

Worse, the cancellation of major sporting events in the country after the explosion would result in Aggy claiming numerous national championships….wait!  So I guess, in retrospect, not much would change. 

[Gengs1 2583]

[Scheiss Meister 8477]

So the question is: does the Russian MOD have the ammo and aren't willing to share, or do they not have the ammo at all?  Maybe it's the military rule that you don't reinforce failure, so he is being cut off for failing in Bakhmut.  Any way it goes, I think Wagner is in for some tough sledding.

[atomheartbevo 90674]

1 hour ago, dimyh said:

Soon, very soon this will be playing for you Prigozhin:

47 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

So the question is: does the Russian MOD have the ammo and aren't willing to share, or do they not have the ammo at all?  Maybe it's the military rule that you don't reinforce failure, so he is being cut off for failing in Bakhmut.  Any way it goes, I think Wagner is in for some tough sledding.

Like I said, some are claiming nobody at the MOD is talking to him for whatever reason, which makes complete sense - if he had an open line to the MOD, I don't know that he'd be making this video, or the alternative is that he'd be specifically saying that he had talked to Gerasimov and Shoigu and they told him no. This sounds like a guy whose calls aren't being returned, so he gets on social media.

I don't think he gets hammer time - I have a feeling the Wagner boys all have access to this video, and they all have probably been told they have no ammo because Shoigu/Gerasimov said not to give it to them.

Assuming he is telling his mercenaries that they get no ammo because the Russian MOD would rather they die, I'd have to think that Wagner's leadership and more than a few of the rank and file, are not very welcome in Russia right now, especially with how many are convicts these days.

Wish Tom Clancy and a few others were around to write about this stuff, because this sure as hell feels like an outright power struggle that you couldn't have dreamed of outside of an 80s Cold War novel, with Putin not having a fucking clue about any of it (otherwise he'd have shut Wagner down and sent them elsewhere, or given them the ammo).

Feels like Prigozhin has crossed his Rubicon though.  No way to walk that video back.

Where would we have a Surly tailgater for May 9th?  The former Russian House here in Austin? Which took off the "Russian" part last year to honor Ukraine?

And of course, May 9th is a fucking Tuesday.  Always a fucking Tuesday with these things.

[atomheartbevo 90674]

Twitter has gone to shit and is being overrun with Russian bots/fanboys, but the NAFO folks are still plugging away.

 

[InkaUtexas 26959]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Twitter has gone to shit and is being overrun with Russian bots/fanboys, but the NAFO folks are still plugging away.

 

We try. And they raise some good funds for the front lines. IFAK's, food, even toys for kids who are at the front. yeah, some scammers, but when found out they are quickly shut them down. 

Canadian friend is doing a painting he will auction and donate 50% to the Georgian Legion and 50% to a group supporting kids along the front for school equipment. Might have to buy him a beer or 10. Ya know, Canadian. 

[atomheartbevo 90674]

1 hour ago, Scheiss Meister said:

So the question is: does the Russian MOD have the ammo and aren't willing to share, or do they not have the ammo at all? 

Oh, and back to this, I don't think they have it. I think if they had the ammo and a decent number of trained/equipped troops that weren't around Bakhmut, they'd be trying to open up some additional offensives outside of Bakhmut to tie up Ukrainian forces.  Instead, this whole Bakhmut situation has greatly favored Ukraine, and allowed Ukraine to have stable lines elsewhere, allowing them to build up and train a lot more troops (who would otherwise be countering additional Russian offensives).  There's a lot of stupid Russians, but plenty of senior Russians know that it's foolish to let the Ukrainians set the tempo, but the Russians are looking pretty helpless right now.

But maybe they have the ammo, but not the trained/equipped troops to make use of it offensively (or they are worried about drones), so they are keeping their powder dry for the main Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Again, Russia can't take the 66th largest city in Ukraine after almost 9 months of trying to.  They've got some major problem(s) for which we aren't seeing the bigger picture, and today's videos gave us a small peek behind the curtain.

[Born to Run 6601]

Like I said, some are claiming nobody at the MOD is talking to him for whatever reason, which makes complete sense - if he had an open line to the MOD, I don't know that he'd be making this video, or the alternative is that he'd be specifically saying that he had talked to Gerasimov and Shoigu and they told him no. This sounds like a guy whose calls aren't being returned, so he gets on social media.
I don't think he gets hammer time - I have a feeling the Wagner boys all have access to this video, and they all have probably been told they have no ammo because Shoigu/Gerasimov said not to give it to them.
Assuming he is telling his mercenaries that they get no ammo because the Russian MOD would rather they die, I'd have to think that Wagner's leadership and more than a few of the rank and file, are not very welcome in Russia right now, especially with how many are convicts these days.
Wish Tom Clancy and a few others were around to write about this stuff, because this sure as hell feels like an outright power struggle that you couldn't have dreamed of outside of an 80s Cold War novel, with Putin not having a fucking clue about any of it (otherwise he'd have shut Wagner down and sent them elsewhere, or given them the ammo).
Feels like Prigozhin has crossed his Rubicon though.  No way to walk that video back.
Where would we have a Surly tailgater for May 9th?  The former Russian House here in Austin? Which took off the "Russian" part last year to honor Ukraine?
And of course, May 9th is a fucking Tuesday.  Always a fucking Tuesday with these things.

Interesting timing with Russian Pow interviews posted today pointing out that Wagner had better leadership and support for thier guys. One was considering joining Wagner as it was the lessor of two shit sandwiches by a large margin. Wagner has done a fair job, by Russian standards, of marketing themselves as a better alternative to the regular army- even in death your commanders give a shit and give you proper burials with honor. (Even if it's bullshit, for desperate traumatized Russian men it must be appealing.) Shits getting interesting.

[KYHorn 17637]

 

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90674]

Would be hilarious if Kaliningrad tried to break away, or any of the republics in the Caucuses.  If you're going to do it, do it when the Ukrainians really rev up the counteroffensive(s).

[KYHorn 17637]

 

 

 

[Laxtonto 13328]

3 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

So the question is: does the Russian MOD have the ammo and aren't willing to share, or do they not have the ammo at all?  Maybe it's the military rule that you don't reinforce failure, so he is being cut off for failing in Bakhmut.  Any way it goes, I think Wagner is in for some tough sledding.

I am starting to wonder if sometime in the last 6 weeks there was supposed to be another huge clandestine shipment of artillery shells out of Iran and it either got destroyed or captured. It would fall in line with the sudden and unexpected stop in supply for the orcs and the new found images of Iranian ammo being used by the UKA.

 

Whats worse to admit on the works stage: we are running low on artillery shells and are unable to produce enough on our own or the fact that to supplement that we made a deal with Iran but somehow (maybe Israel) they got lost somewhere between Tehran and the Crimea…

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

That prigozhin video was borderline erotic 

[KYHorn 17637]

 

 Lol...

 

[Superhero 9039]

The Russian delegate fucked around and found out.

Too bad the Ukrainian only got a few light punches in... too bad.

 

 

[KYHorn 17637]

 

 

 

[statsman 5698]

22 hours ago, statsman said:

Where I am on the gamers’ leaks:

It is probably true that Ukraine is/was close to running out of AD missiles. 
 
It was bad that this info was revealed to Russia by the leak. 
 
It may be a positive, in that the leak exposed the weakness to citizens of the west, who expect their governments to address such problems. Hopefully the exposure of the leak will ensure that work-arounds (Quicker Patriot set up, more Buk missiles, maybe more MANPADS?) are instituted. CYA. 

I was right!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-allies-patch-together-ukraines-defenses-against-russian-warplanes-missiles-32bb104?st=s7u50u3xkydwjb0&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

[atomheartbevo 90674]

5 hours ago, Superhero said:

The Russian delegate fucked around and found out.

Too bad the Ukrainian only got a few light punches in... too bad.

I didn't see it before until the headline pointed it out, but I just noticed that the Ukrainian guy was holding the flag up for a photo op for somebody when the Russian took it out of his hand, and then you see the Ukrainian guy start to go all

Except he was not the T-1000 or something.  Bad analogy, but yeah, the Ukrainian guy had a look on his face that scared the Russian.

[Schulz2.0 29293]

 

[KYHorn 17637]

 

 

 

[The Dog 44865]

 

1 minute ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

^ Jenny and the ISW folk have been pretty dang accurate since the initial invasion. They were also caught off guard like others and thought Russia would win quickly. They have adjusted their analysis based on what is actually happening and have been right a lot more than when they have been wrong.

[The Dog 44865]

Tokmak is just northeast of Melitopol.

Edited May 5, 2023 by The Dog

[statsman 5698]

The WSJ article above- about MacGyveres AD (their word)- is revealing about how the war unfolded. We start all offensives by establishing air superiority. We use AWACS and others to identify locations of enemy air defense, and take them out first thing. Russia couldn’t do that a year ago, February, because we advised Ukraine to move their air defense around, and not turn its radar on until we told them to (we used out Comms superiority and satellite surveillance to know). 

[KYHorn 17637]

 

10 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2023 by KYHorn

[The Dog 44865]

^ LOL

[Orange&White 5573]

7 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

He's had ten months to take the city and has failed, but was planning to have it completely taken in the next 5 days if he would have just received ammo? Riiiiggghhhtttt....

If I am Shogiu. I would send a pile of ammo so large that he couldn't deny it.

Then on May 10th publicly ask why he failed at taking the city he promised to take.

 

[KYHorn 17637]

Possibly related to the recent announcements

 

 

Edited May 5, 2023 by KYHorn

[atomheartbevo 90674]

4 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

He's had ten months to take the city and has failed, but was planning to have it completely taken in the next 5 days if he would have just received ammo? Riiiiggghhhtttt....

If I am Shogiu. I would send a pile of ammo so large that he couldn't deny it.

Then on May 10th publicly ask why he failed at taking the city he promised to take.

Prigozhin is doubling down in his fight with the MOD, to the point of insulting the Russian Army multiple times in that last video (something you can't do in Russia proper) and the leadership and blaming everything on them.  I don't know what the reach of these videos is (probably not to the typical Russian), but yeah, he should be careful what he drinks and not to enter any tall buildings.  I'll be surprised if he's still alive 3 months from now.

And this is where Putin's background as a spook is failing him - he either fails to grasp what is happening, or is mentally downplaying it as squabbles amongst lower-ranking mafia types.  Hell, given his KGB background, he's probably suspicious of every report that crosses his desk, and rather than question the content of the report, questions the motives of the person giving it to him.

[texastough 1146]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Prigozhin is doubling down in his fight with the MOD, to the point of insulting the Russian Army multiple times in that last video (something you can't do in Russia proper) and the leadership and blaming everything on them.  I don't know what the reach of these videos is (probably not to the typical Russian), but yeah, he should be careful what he drinks and not to enter any tall buildings.  I'll be surprised if he's still alive 3 months from now.

I'd throw Girkin in too as someone who has been critical enough you'd think would earn a free flight out of a tall window somewhere. I don't really understand the calculus, but by playing the MOD against PMC's, it might be to focus the Russian populace on those guys (as potential scapegoats later) and also to keep them rabid to continue the war.

[Gravy Train 976]

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Prigozhin is doubling down in his fight with the MOD, to the point of insulting the Russian Army multiple times in that last video (something you can't do in Russia proper) and the leadership and blaming everything on them.  I don't know what the reach of these videos is (probably not to the typical Russian), but yeah, he should be careful what he drinks and not to enter any tall buildings.  I'll be surprised if he's still alive 3 months from now.

He did just open a shiny new 'Wagner Tech Center' in St Petersburg at the turn of the year.  Seems he won't be enjoying much of it for a while:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/04/russias-wagner-group-opens-defence-tech-centre-in-st-petersburg

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And this is where Putin's background as a spook is failing him - he either fails to grasp what is happening, or is mentally downplaying it as squabbles amongst lower-ranking mafia types.  Hell, given his KGB background, he's probably suspicious of every report that crosses his desk, and rather than question the content of the report, questions the motives of the person giving it to him.

It seems Putin simply might not receive any of these reports-- his inner circle is that tight, and none wish to deliver bad news, but they may also be blissfully ignorant themselves, with such an isolated bubble of influence that those with more relevent intel actually avoid and maintain seperation from Putin's circle.  He does watch state television often, and I assume those producers are aware of it.

[The Dog 44865]

 

[Chad Fuck 18166]

24 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

He did just open a shiny new 'Wagner Tech Center' in St Petersburg at the turn of the year.  Seems he won't be enjoying much of it for a while:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/04/russias-wagner-group-opens-defence-tech-centre-in-st-petersburg

It seems Putin simply might not receive any of these reports-- his inner circle is that tight, and none wish to deliver bad news, but they may also be blissfully ignorant themselves, with such an isolated bubble of influence that those with more relevent intel actually avoid and maintain seperation from Putin's circle.  He does watch state television often, and I assume those producers are aware of it.

When "shoot the messenger" is the rule, very few negative messages get through.

Still, Putin isn't a total idiot.  He has to have a calendar and note it has been more than three days since the war started.  Uncomfortable questions have to have been asked at some point.  Yet far fewer people - and surprisingly peripheral ones at that - have fallen out of windows than I would have imagined.  

Edited May 5, 2023 by Chad Fuck

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Not using the internet seems like a bad idea for ole Vlad.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

That’s actually a pretty interesting thought exercise. What would you know if you didn’t use the internet?

[MissingInAction 25597]

5 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

That’s actually a pretty interesting thought exercise. What would you know if you didn’t use the internet?

I would not feel as smart as I do these days. Thats not because of all my own "research" either.

[Schulz2.0 29293]

8 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

That’s actually a pretty interesting thought exercise. What would you know if you didn’t use the internet?

How's Vlad going to find all that weird porn he's into?

[Chad Fuck 18166]

Just now, Schulz2.0 said:

How's Vlad going to find all that weird porn he's into?

So what exactly are you into, Vlad?

[The Dog 44865]

it hasn't been widely reported (if at all) but we've apparently sent over a large number of combat engineering vehicles.

this is why the Orcs are running away:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War#Bulldozer_assault

Quote

Bulldozer assault

 

An armored bulldozer similar to the ones used in the attack

Another incident during the war highlighted the question of large-scale Iraqi combat deaths. This was the "bulldozer assault", wherein two brigades from the US 1st Infantry Division (Mechanized) were faced with a large and complex trench network, as part of the heavily fortified "Saddam Hussein Line". After some deliberation, they opted to use anti-mine plows mounted on tanks and combat earthmovers to simply plow over and bury alive the defending Iraqi soldiers. Not a single American was killed during the attack. Reporters were banned from witnessing the attack, near the neutral zone that touches the border between Saudi Arabia and Iraq.^[300] Every American in the assault was inside an armored vehicle.^[300]

Patrick Day Sloyan of Newsday reported, "Bradley Fighting Vehicles and Vulcan armored carriers straddled the trench lines and fired into the Iraqi soldiers as the tanks covered them with mounds of sand. 'I came through right after the lead company,' [Col. Anthony] Moreno said. 'What you saw was a bunch of buried trenches with peoples' arms and things sticking out of them.'"^[301] However, after the war, the Iraqi government said that only 44 bodies were found.^[302] In his book The Wars Against Saddam, John Simpson alleges that US forces attempted to cover up the incident.^[303] After the incident, the commander of the 1st Brigade said: "I know burying people like that sounds pretty nasty, but it would be even nastier if we had to put our troops in the trenches and clean them out with bayonets."^[301] Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney did not mention the First Division's tactics in an interim report to Congress on Operation Desert Storm.^[300] In the report, Cheney acknowledged that 457 enemy soldiers were buried during the ground war.^[300]

they're gonna plow those trenches and then drive right over them. 

[Chad Fuck 18166]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

it hasn't been widely reported (if at all) but we've apparently sent over a large number of combat engineering vehicles.

this is why the Orcs are running away:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War#Bulldozer_assault

they're gonna plow those trenches and then drive right over them. 

[Parliament 14619]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

 

 

So is it possible the UKA will take it by May 9?

[The Dog 44865]

The Russian authorities of the occupied part of the Zaporozhye region announced the evacuation of 18 settlements, including Tokmak. On the left is a map of these points, on the right are my thoughts on the course of a possible offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.