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17 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Prigozhin's ranting and threat to pull out of Bakhmut and reports of regular Russian units redeploying elsewhere sound good, but it seems too public to me.  I smell a rat, and the wind's coming from Russia's direction.  I think they are trying to set a trap and get Ukraine to overextend there.

This is what I have been thinking as I read surly... Why would the commander of a private military set up a scene to put on the Twitter? Why would he tell the world he does not have ammo and is quitting on May 10? Makes no sense. It's a set up. 

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22 minutes ago, Slacks said:

This is what I have been thinking as I read surly... Why would the commander of a private military set up a scene to put on the Twitter? Why would he tell the world he does not have ammo and is quitting on May 10? Makes no sense. It's a set up. 

Unless nobody at the Kremlin is taking his phone calls, and this is an attempt to get some attention.  Or he sees the shit sandwich headed Russia's way, and doesn't want to take the blame, so he gets out there in front of it and bitches that he has no ammo and that Shoigu/Gerasimov are fucking him and Wagner over.

Putin will not take that blame, which means somebody else will.  If after nearly 9 months of taking Bakhmut, and Russia is unable to do it (remember, 66th largest city in Ukraine, about the size of San Marcos), and Wagner is being set up, he's getting ahead of the story.

We see subterfuge on social media all the time, and Putin is KGB through-and-through, but the thing is, the Ukrainians (and NATO from afar and in space) have Bakhmut and other areas under constant surveillance.  It would not surprise me if Ukraine and/or NATO knew to within a few hundred soldiers, exactly how many Russians are in the Bakhmut area.

If they are trying to setup a trap, Ukraine would have been watching them do it - Wagner can't pull out without it being spotted, and they can't fake it, since it would be spotted.  And Ukraine/NATO probably have a decent idea of how much ammo and arty is flowing into the Bakhmut area since you can't really hide a lot of that (they would see patterns with trucks, and trucks carrying ammo would be weighed down and going slower than most).

Prigozhin is a fan-fucking-tastic fall guy for Putin - he's operating outside of the Russian Army, Wagner is full of criminals that were in prison not that long ago, and he'd clearly rather be raiding gold or diamonds in Africa, since that's more lucrative. I wouldn't be surprised if Wagner/Prigozhin was forced into Ukraine either, like some kind of "we'll completely cut you off internationally, you will get no aid from us to get back to Russia, and we'll make sure that various countries hear about what you're doing and where you're doing it".

If they are luring Ukraine into a trap, it should have been easy enough for Ukraine to spot since Bakhmut is not that big and Ukraine has a helluva drone army.

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21 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Also, Russia is now David, and Ukraine is Goliath

Happy Cracking Up GIF by Regal

Two interesting points he made: One, that the entire country is at war, only the unobservant could not know this, and we are all in this together.    

This tells me he is setting them up for the reality of even more catastrophic economic effects to come -  the runaway inflation, ruble depreciation, the scarcity of products and the effects of sanctions and fleeing educated young people,  all leading to more unemployment.  

Two, at the very end, he says those in Russia who welcome the end of the war with Ukraine successfully defending itself need to be annihilated.   This may mean that there is a hell of a lot of murmuring now, because nobody really believes the bullshit about ending Nazis in Ukraine.   Everyone knows all the young people fled, Russia is not winning, there are lots and lots of dead and wounded Russians, orcs and orc civilians are fleeing captured territories, etc., so the man on the street is beginning to question how long the special operation can go on. 

Plus, this assessment that the Second Army in the World is really poor little David being attacked by the giant NATO Goliath maybe the start of their propaganda justifying why they lost. 

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2 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

70 is the new 20

 

2 hours ago, Stilicho said:

Are there any non-political prisoners that haven't been volunteered for Wagner work, yet?

 

2 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

More importantly, how are they going to equip 25m even if they could find them?

 

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

I see you haven't seen Russian army standards.

 

stage soldier GIF by South Park

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3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Two interesting points he made: One, that the entire country is at war, only the unobservant could not know this, and we are all in this together.    

This tells me he is setting them up for the reality of even more catastrophic economic effects to come -  the runaway inflation, ruble depreciation, the scarcity of products and the effects of sanctions and fleeing educated young people,  all leading to more unemployment.  

Two, at the very end, he says those in Russia who welcome the end of the war with Ukraine successfully defending itself need to be annihilated.   This may mean that there is a hell of a lot of murmuring now, because nobody really believes the bullshit about ending Nazis in Ukraine.   Everyone knows all the young people fled, Russia is not winning, there are lots and lots of dead and wounded Russians, orcs and orc civilians are fleeing captured territories, etc., so the man on the street is beginning to question how long the special operation can go on. 

Plus, this assessment that the Second Army in the World is really poor little David being attacked by the giant NATO Goliath maybe the start of their propaganda justifying why they lost. 

Yeah, he and the other talking heads are a huge part of keeping at least some of the populace...aware that if they fuck around, the Russian state is waiting to crush them, or worse, send them off to Ukraine if they are men, or send their husbands/fathers/sons off if they are women.

3 hours ago, Rimbo said:

where the fuck are they going to find 25m fighting-age men

If they could easily mobilize and equip 2.5 million right now, they'd be doing it.  Or 250,000 for that matter (they supposedly have a few thousand in the pipeline from the normal yearly conscription, but it doesn't seem like they are anywhere to be found).  If they do, it'll be some real "every other man gets a gun, when he falls, the guy behind him without a gun picks up his gun and charges forward."

2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

I see you haven't seen Russian army standards.

Ukrainian troops still looking and acting like modern/contemporary American/NATO soldiers.

Russian soldiers are cosplaying WWI  or Civil War soldiers, complete with many still used to outhouses.

3 minutes ago, Stilicho said:

So Prigozhin is staying in Bakhmut beyond May 9th only at gunpoint?

Like was said, he's easily replaceable.

At this point, I feel like Putin is in ride or die mode with the people around him - if he replaces Shoigu or Gerasimov, he has to use somebody in his inner circle, because there's no way he elevates an outsider at this point - he's already shuffled a lot of people around.

Would be nice if we could see his paranoia truly kicking in.

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1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

Wrong.

The orcs execute those who can't defend themselves. 

That was clearing a trench. The man who took point rushing forward is a BAMF.

Looking forward to HBO's "Band of Brothers: Ukraine."

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23 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Getting people running before you’ve even started your offensive is pretty good psyops.

Found a video of the Ukrainian special forces spreading the word:

 

Edited by dimyh
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