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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 28761

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

In the short term Ukraine, and then again in long term potentially no one.  I don't buy the no water for Crimea for 15 years part, that's fixable more quickly with no red tape.  For now however, that's real bad news for Russia, not to mention the flooded positions in southern Kherson.  

What I don't have a great understanding of is water supply to cool the nuclear reactors.  Those reactors are cold (not operating), but that's sort of misleading they still have fuel rods that are hot and require cooling.  Now you wouldn't have a Chernobyl like explosion, but those not being cooled would be a big problem.  However, if the Ukrainians did this, I'd be surprised if they hadn't taken this somehow into account.  

Lastly, we've all been looking for a signal that shits on, well this would be a pretty big signal.  

You still need water to cool the reactors with the fuel rods still in them. There are multiple factors that go into how much cooling you need and for how long.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

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4 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

You still need water to cool the reactors with the fuel rods still in them. There are multiple factors that go into how much cooling you need and for how long.

Long story short, most fuel rods need between 5 to 10 years to cool.  So yeah, being off for nearly a year isn't going to cut it.  They hydrology of the area near them is what I don't have a good feel for, if this can be dealt with what does or will exist.  

Edited by BamaATL
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Rimbo

Rimbo 25766

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3 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

У Джона довгі вуса

Протяжні ридання скрипок осені ранять моє серце одноманітною млістю.

"John has a long mustache The long sobs of autumn violins wound my heart with monotonous nausea."

 

...what the fuck?

3 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Sorry for the dumb question but is that going to drown a bunch of citizens?

72702a22-8421-4c43-8f54-fc21a4877796_tex

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SL Xpress

SL Xpress 7504

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So here's a Reuters' article from October 2022 where Zelensky accuses the Russians of mining the dam in preparation for blowing it up. 

The article doesn't go into as much detail as I'd prefer regarding the consequences. I'd prefer something like an engineer's report. But it's mildly helpful for providing a small amount of context. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/is-kakhovka-dam-ukraine-about-be-blown-2022-10-21/

Spoiler

Factbox: Is the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine about to be blown?

October 21, 20224:30 PM CDTUpdated 7 months ago
Satellite image shows the Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River in Ukraine
 
 
 
 

[1/3] Satellite image shows the Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River near Nova Kakhovka in Ukraine, October 18, 2022. Maxar Technologies/Handout via REUTERS

Oct 21 (Reuters) - Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of planning to blow up the Kakhovka hydro-electric dam on the Dnipro River, a step that would unleash a devastating flood across a large area of southern Ukraine.

What is the Kakhovka dam, is it about to be blown and what impact would that have?

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE DAM

* The dam, 30 metres (yards) tall and 3.2 km (2 miles) long, was built in 1956 on the Dnipro river as part of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant.

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* It holds an 18 km3 reservoir which also supplies water to the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014, and to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which is also under Russian control.

* The volume of water in the reservoir is about equal to the Great Salt Lake in the U.S. state of Utah.

* Blowing the Soviet-era dam, which is controlled by Russia, would unleash a wall of devastating floodwater across much of the Kherson region which Russia last month proclaimed as annexed in the face of a Ukrainian advance.

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* Destroying the Kakhovka hydro-electric power plant would also add to Ukraine's energy woes after weeks of Russian missile strikes aimed at generation and grid facilities which Kyiv said have damaged a third of its country-wide power network.

ALLEGATIONS

* Sergei Surovikin, the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, said on Tuesday he had information that Ukrainian forces were preparing a massive strike on the dam and had already used U.S.-supplied HIMARS missiles of a major strike, he said, could be a disaster.

"We have information on the possibility of the Kyiv regime using prohibited methods of war in the area of the city of Kherson, on the preparation by Kyiv of a massive missile strike on the Kakhovka hydro-electric dam," Surovikin said.

Ukrainian officials said the allegation was a sign that Moscow planned to attack the dam and blame Kyiv.

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* Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that Russia had mined the dam and was preparing to blow it, a step he compared to the use of weapons of mass destruction.

"I informed the Europeans today, during the meeting of the European Council, about the next terrorist attack, which Russia is preparing for at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant," he said. "Destroying the dam would mean a large-scale disaster."

Blowing the dam, he said, would also destroy the water supply to Crimea and thus show that Russia had accepted that it could not hold onto the peninsula.

Kirill Stremousov, the Russian-installed deputy head of the annexed Kherson region, said Kyiv's allegations that Russia had mined the dam were false.

 

BTW, with no facts to back it up, I'm firmly convinced this is the Russians. Just like I'm firmly convinced they blew up the Nordstream 2 pipeline. 

IMO they're doing everything they can to slow down a Ukrainian counter offensive, especially to give the Ukrainians fewer options, even short term, so Russia can concentrate their defenses somewhat. They're also legitimately concerned about losing this area, so by destroying it they're depriving Ukraine of a very significant asset. 

There was also a heavy two lane bridge associated with the dam, so that deprives Ukraine from gaining that in the future as a means of shifting assets and supplies to the left bank of the Dnipro. 

I don't completely understand the timing. If the dam was mined - and I believe it was - it seems like they could blow it up any time they want. Maybe the Russians saw signs of an imminent river crossing they had no real counter for. 

In any case, this is obviously a big deal. I'm concerned about the lives and livelihoods that will be affected along the river, both up and down stream. This is a major, significant event in terms of navigation, flooding, water availability, and electric power generation, among other things. 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

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3 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Sorry for the dumb question but is that going to drown a bunch of citizens?

From what I've read, the Ukrainian side of the river will not have catastrophic flooding, and for that matter, I can't believe too many civilians weren't evacuated due to shelling anyway.  Now on the Russian side of the river, I really don't know.  I know that it was less densely populated prior to all this to begin with, and I would assume that many locals were forced to relocate by the Russians.  However, anyone left is likely in big trouble.  

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gmr548

gmr548 16481

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Posted
Sorry for the dumb question but is that going to drown a bunch of citizens?

That is my first reaction. Flooding will kill hundreds or thousands and water/electrical infrastructure has been compromised; not to mention the property damage that will never be repaid.

Whoever did it, this is a war crime.
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bolverk

bolverk 29394

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, gmr548 said:


That is my first reaction. Flooding will kill hundreds or thousands and water/electrical infrastructure has been compromised; not to mention the property damage that will never be repaid.

Whoever did it, this is a war crime.

While the Russian-controlled bank is expected to flood more, washing out mines and defensive positions, one thing to also keep in mind are the reports from a few weeks back of Russians pulling out of the area.

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SL Xpress

SL Xpress 7504

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3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


That is my first reaction. Flooding will kill hundreds or thousands and water/electrical infrastructure has been compromised; not to mention the property damage that will never be repaid.

Whoever did it, this is a war crime.

"Whoever did it" indeed.

This is a flat out demolition job. The amount of damage to the infrastructure is catastrophic. It's a purposeful sabotage done by the people in control of the area for maximum effect. 

I'll say this, too. The chances of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant surviving this war just went downhill. While a big jump in terms of consequences, it's not an insurmountable jump. 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

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8 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

"Whoever did it" indeed.

This is a flat out demolition job. The amount of damage to the infrastructure is catastrophic. It's a purposeful sabotage done by the people in control of the area for maximum effect. 

I'll say this, too. The chances of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant surviving this war just went downhill. While a big jump in terms of consequences, it's not an insurmountable jump. 

Good news/bad news on the Nuclear Plant

In the event that the fuel can't be cooled, in theory (oh boy), the containment building should withstand the impending meltdown (yikes, when the meltdown is something you are trying to downplay)

The best we could hope for is that the containment buildings hold and whatever radiation does escape is minimal and won't require a safe containment a la Chernobyl.  Just years of exterior concrete maintenance and diligence.  

Of course that assumes it all works right under these potentially extreme conditions, which is a really big if.  

 

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 28761

Posted
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2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Good news/bad news on the Nuclear Plant

In the event that the fuel can't be cooled, in theory (oh boy), the containment building should withstand the impending meltdown (yikes, when the meltdown is something you are trying to downplay)

The best we could hope for is that the containment buildings hold and whatever radiation does escape is minimal and won't require a safe containment a la Chernobyl.  Just years of exterior concrete maintenance and diligence.  

Of course that assumes it all works right under these potentially extreme conditions, which is a really big if.  

 

Chernobyl's containment was basically nothing. Fucking Soviets.

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SL Xpress

SL Xpress 7504

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1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

Good news/bad news on the Nuclear Plant

In the event that the fuel can't be cooled, in theory (oh boy), the containment building should withstand the impending meltdown (yikes, when the meltdown is something you are trying to downplay)

The best we could hope for is that the containment buildings hold and whatever radiation does escape is minimal and won't require a safe containment a la Chernobyl.  Just years of exterior concrete maintenance and diligence.  

Of course that assumes it all works right under these potentially extreme conditions, which is a really big if.  

 

To be honest at this point I'm not thinking of the worst case scenario being a meltdown because of lack of cooling water.

I'm thinking sabotage. Don't know all the worst case scenarios there, but I do feel comfortable saying your scenario would be the jumping off point. 

Again, I'm getting paranoid here. It's doesn't change my thinking of what has to be done. It furthers my resolve on what has to be done. And at least there is minimal international observations going on at the power plant. As opposed to the dam where there was none.

I just know we'll all breathe a huge sigh of relief if somehow the Ukrainians can take that part of their country back with the reactors/power plant still intact. 

I guess we'll see what the fallout from the dam being destroyed actually ends up being. Pardon the expression. 

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Scheiss Meister

Scheiss Meister 8398

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Blowing a dam and flooding lowlands is a defensive action, meant to impede freedom of offensive movement.  Ukraine has no reason to blow the dam, and many reasons not to blow it. 

Without that water, the economic value of Crimea just fell considerably.  Once Ukraine retakes Crimea, they will have to provide drinking and agricultural water, and this makes doing so much more difficult and costly.  Ukraine doesn't need that challenge added to the list. 

Finally, the damage done to the dam was too extensive to be the result of shelling.  That came from well placed and coordinated demolition charges. 

This is Ruzzia doing their raccoon imitation: If they can’t eat it, drink it, fuck it, or steal it, then shit on it and fuck it up.

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SL Xpress

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Washington Post article citing official sources along with anonymous sources about how the beginning of the counteroffensive is, in fact, not underway, but might be.

If that sounds clear as mud, I'm only repeating what I'm reading.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/05/belgorod-russia-ukraine-counteroffensive-militias/

The stuff at the end about Prigozhin and Lt. Col. Venevitin I can't get enough of.

"'Prigozhin accused the regular military of placing explosives on roads used by the mercenaries to retreat from Bakhmut. Russia recently captured the eastern Ukrainian city after a months-long siege led by Wagner.

On Sunday, Prigozhin posted a statement saying that Russian soldiers shelled his Wagner fighters as they demined the roads. He claimed the alleged attack was repelled, and Wagner detained Lt. Col. Roman Venevitin of Russia’s 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade.

Shortly after, Prigozhin’s press service posted a video showing what appeared to be Venevitin confessing that he had ordered his troops to shoot at Wagner mercenaries “in a state of intoxication and out of personal enmity.'”

Spoiler

Ukrainian forces advance on Russians, deny ‘counteroffensive’ has begun

Isobel Koshiw
 and 
Updated June 5, 2023 at 6:42 p.m. EDT|Published June 5, 2023 at 8:42 a.m. EDT
 
Residents evacuated from towns in Russia’s Belgorod region near the border of Ukraine, which have come under heavy shelling, are given humanitarian aid in the regional capital on Saturday. (Olga Maltseva/AFP/Getty Images)

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s military made gains against Russian forces in multiple locations along the eastern front, the country’s deputy defense minister said Monday, as an increasing cadence in combat operations raised speculation that the much-anticipated counteroffensive was finally imminent.

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar wrote on Telegram that troops conducted multiple “offensive actions” in the eastern Donetsk region despite “stiff resistance and the enemy’s attempts to hold the occupied lines and positions.”

 

But Ukrainian officials denied claims by Moscow that they had launched the counteroffensive — and that Russian troops had thwarted it.

 

A spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said Ukrainian forces had started the counteroffensive by trying to push through five areas of the Russian line in Donetsk but had been repelled. The statement by Lt. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, in a video posted by the Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti, could not be verified.

 
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Serhiy Cherevatyi, a spokesman for the Ukrainian army’s eastern command, called the Russian claim “delusional.” Maliar denied that the operation to push Russian forces back and eventually out of Ukraine was underway. Any offensive efforts, she said, were confined to an ongoing push around Bakhmut, the regional capital of Donetsk.

Ukrainian forces advanced between 200 and 1,600 meters in the area near the town of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and in Paraskoviivka, north of Bakhmut, Maliar said. Soldiers pushed between 100 and 700 meters near Ivanivske, also close to Bakhmut, she said.

 

Ukrainian officials have cautioned repeatedly in recent days that no single action would mark the start of the counterattack, nor would it be announced. But military analysts on Monday said the front-line activity could indicate its early stages.

 
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An officer in a Ukrainian assault brigade in the southeast region told The Washington Post the counteroffensive has begun and his unit is ready to join. He spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to provide details. A unit near his pushed ahead yesterday, he said, and destroyed eight Russian tanks. For now, he said, Ukraine is focused on reconnaissance operations, “but the pace will increase every day.”

“The Armed Forces of Ukraine are now shaking the enemy’s defenses along the entire front, conducting combat reconnaissance, looking for weak points,” the officer said. “At the same time, rocket artillery units are destroying warehouses, Russian military command bodies, and logistics chains.”

 

At least one brigade in the southern Donetsk region is launching an offensive operation, according to a military official in the region who also spoke on the condition of anonymity.

 
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The units conducting offensive operations near Bakhmut and in southern Donetsk on Monday were not among the specialized brigades, some recently trained by NATO, that are expected to lead the counteroffensive as the so-called tip of the spear.

Some U.S. officials believe the counteroffensive is underway — and going well for Ukraine. They point to the territorial gains made by Ukrainian forces north and south of Bakhmut and strikes deep behind Russian lines.

U.S. officials caution that a successful offensive might look very different from traditional conventional operations, in which armored columns fight to penetrate enemy ground. It could involve instead what U.S. officials call modern maneuver warfare, which includes expanded artillery fire, probing attacks, and sabotage or partisan activity behind enemy lines. They hope such actions, enabled by NATO training and arms supplies, will pressure Russian troops to make mistakes and provide Ukrainian forces opportunities to advance.

 
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When asked at the White House House whether the counteroffensive had begun, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said he would not be speaking for the Ukrainian military.

“They’re conducting some offensive operations,” he said. “That’s for them to speak to.”

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War wrote that Russian and Ukrainian officials were signaling that it had begun. The think tank said it has “observed increased combat activity in different sectors of the front line and assesses that Ukrainian forces are making territorial gains despite Russian claims to the contrary.”

Michael Kofman, a Russian military analyst at the Washington-based Center for a New American Security, said the activity in the past day or so “is probably the early phase of a Ukrainian offensive operation, but it does not appear to be the main effort.”

 
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The offensive is expected to unfold over the course of months, not days. But the latest operations, Kofman said, are “a significant change in the fighting compared to what we’ve seen over the past month.”

Cherevatyi, the eastern command spokesman, denied that the counteroffensive had started.

“In reality, when this starts, everyone will know about it,” he told The Post. He said the operation would hinge on an element of surprise, like the lightning strike last fall that pushed Russian forces out of positions in the northeast Kharkiv region.

“It will be like Kharkiv,” Cherevatyi said. “Fast, effective and obvious to them and everyone else.”

Before the push through Kharkiv last September, Ukraine maneuvered its forces to suggest preparations for an attack in the Kherson region to the south. Kyiv later admitted that it was an intentional diversion. A counterattack in Kherson then followed in November.

 
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“The position of the state is to not admit the counteroffensive and to not tie it to a specific date,” Interior Ministry adviser Anton Gerashchenko told The Post. “Because if it does that, it will demotivate people and will be a source of manipulation. So therefore it is ongoing.”

Ukraine’s military on Sunday released a video of soldiers putting fingers to their lips, remaining silent. “Shhhhhh,” the Defense Ministry tweeted Monday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked troops around Bakhmut for their advances against Russian forces. “I am grateful to each of our soldiers, all our defenders … who on this day gave us exactly the news we expect. [Those in the] Bakhmut direction — well done, soldiers,” Zelensky said Monday in his nightly address, posted on Telegram.

 

Ukrainian advances followed attacks by anti-Russian forces against at least 10 villages in Russia’s Belgorod region earlier Monday, its governor said, an escalation in cross-border fighting.

 
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Belgorod Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov blamed the attacks on Ukraine’s military, but two anti-Putin paramilitary groups claimed credit for them.

The fighting appeared to intensify Monday as a power facility caught fire following a drone attack. The Russian town of Shebekino, located about four miles from the Ukrainian border, also came under heavy shelling, residents told Radio Free Europe.

The pro-Ukrainian militias, which claimed to have carried out a series of cross-border incursions in recent days, said their forces mounted another attack on government facilities and took Russian soldiers prisoner over the weekend.

 

Gladkov said Sunday that he was willing to meet an opposition group that had taken prisoners from the region. But the governor skipped the meeting, according to the Russian Volunteer Corps, one of two anti-Kremlin militia groups operating on Russian soil in support of Ukraine.

 
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Kyiv has denied any involvement in the attacks on Russian soil and sought to distance it from the groups.

But in a jab at Moscow, Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov told Ukrainian national television on Saturday that Russia was unable to quash the paramilitary attacks because its security forces were trained only “to beat the participants of peaceful protests.”

Ilya Ponomarev, a founder of the Free Russia Legion, the second militia group, claimed that anti-Putin forces now control about a dozen settlements in Belgorod region.

Ponomarev said the Free Russia Legion is operating in Shebekino. Russian authorities have said the town is being hit by Ukrainian armed forces from across the border.

The Russian Defense Ministry said Monday its forces had stopped an attempt by “Ukrainian terrorists” on Sunday to enter Novaya Tavolzhanka via the nearby Seversky Donets River, which crosses into Russia from Ukraine. The ministry said Russia had 10 of the attackers.

But Russian authorities could not enter Novoya Tavolzhanka, Gladkov said Monday night on social media. That appeared to confirm claims by the militias that they were in control of the settlement — and that Russia’s border security measures were insufficient for the second time in two weeks.

The Russian ranks appeared to be in disarray.

Some pro-war Russian bloggers dubbed the area the “Belgorod front line,” underscoring the blowback of Moscow’s stalling invasion of Ukraine, with active fighting underway on Russian soil.

At least 4,000 people, roughly 10 percent of Shebekino’s population, have evacuated in recent days. Many are now housed in shelters in the regional capital of Belgorod city, Gladkov said. At least 10 have people died, and dozens have been hospitalized with blast injuries in the past week, local media reported.

 
Residents, including those evacuated from the town of Shebekino, settle into a temporary shelter set up at the Belgorod Arena in the regional capital of Belgorod on Friday. (Olga Maltseva/AFP/Getty Images)

In Belgorod and two other border regions, local radio stations broadcast a fake announcement from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who urged listeners to evacuate “deeper into the country immediately” and announced a general mobilization “to defeat the cunning and dangerous enemy.”

“The purpose of the message is to sow panic among peaceful Belgorod residents,” local authorities said.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Monday that the radio stations were hacked, but broadcasters had since “regained control.”

In another bizarre turn, the months-long feud between Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin and Russia’s Defense Ministry appeared to have moved beyond rhetoric.

Prigozhin accused the regular military of placing explosives on roads used by the mercenaries to retreat from Bakhmut. Russia recently captured the eastern Ukrainian city after a months-long siege led by Wagner.

On Sunday, Prigozhin posted a statement saying that Russian soldiers shelled his Wagner fighters as they demined the roads. He claimed the alleged attack was repelled, and Wagner detained Lt. Col. Roman Venevitin of Russia’s 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade.

Shortly after, Prigozhin’s press service posted a video showing what appeared to be Venevitin confessing that he had ordered his troops to shoot at Wagner mercenaries “in a state of intoxication and out of personal enmity.”

Prigozhin’s claims could not be independently verified, and the Russian Defense Ministry did not publicly comment on the accusations.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

Posted
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20 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

"'Prigozhin accused the regular military of placing explosives on roads used by the mercenaries to retreat from Bakhmut. Russia recently captured the eastern Ukrainian city after a months-long siege led by Wagner.

20 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

On Sunday, Prigozhin posted a statement saying that Russian soldiers shelled his Wagner fighters as they demined the roads. He claimed the alleged attack was repelled, and Wagner detained Lt. Col. Roman Venevitin of Russia’s 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade.

Shortly after, Prigozhin’s press service posted a video showing what appeared to be Venevitin confessing that he had ordered his troops to shoot at Wagner mercenaries “in a state of intoxication and out of personal enmity.'”

Yeah, beating a dead horse, but if this isn't Prigozhin daring Shoigu and Gerasimov to do something, I don't know what is.

If in Iraq, Blackwater decided to kidnap and torture an American Lt. Col., it would have been open season on Blackwater.

Meanwhile, Wagner is roaming around freely, unafraid of the Russian military fucking with them.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

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You know, if we have given them ATACMS, which there are rumors that covertly we have, in about a week, or whenever the flooding subsides, destroying the reservoirs in Crimea would be crippling to them.  Their naval vessels I presume have desalination abilities (though the are Russian, so they probably only partly work), but that would in no way give them the ability to sustain an army; and quite frankly no army can subsist without fresh water.  

The shit side to that idea would be that there are civilians caught behind the lines that would obviously suffer tremendously under such a scenario.  Perhaps under this sort of idea the civilians could somehow be covertly warned and instructed to start hiding and rationing.   I'm sure the Russians could get some level of fresh water in, but in all likelihood not nearly enough to maintain a credible defense force.  

It's an idea, probably a bad one.  

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25486

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5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

You know, if we have given them ATACMS, which there are rumors that covertly we have, in about a week, or whenever the flooding subsides, destroying the reservoirs in Crimea would be crippling to them.  Their naval vessels I presume have desalination abilities (though the are Russian, so they probably only partly work), but that would in no way give them the ability to sustain an army; and quite frankly no army can subsist without fresh water.  

The shit side to that idea would be that there are civilians caught behind the lines that would obviously suffer tremendously under such a scenario.  Perhaps under this sort of idea the civilians could somehow be covertly warned and instructed to start hiding and rationing.   I'm sure the Russians could get some level of fresh water in, but in all likelihood not nearly enough to maintain a credible defense force.  

It's an idea, probably a bad one.  

Don't forget a shit load of good farm land that used to feed a lot of humans. 

 

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