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[The Dog 43,771]

This is the real problem with Russia; as much as the civilized world loathes Vladimir #Putin, the sad, troublesome truth is that he could disappear from the face of the earth tomorrow, along with his entire kleptocratic regime, and #Russia would STILL be a significant problem for its neighbors and the civilized world because of its malignant national culture. Look at the significant effort the West had to undertake, for decades, to transform German and Japanese malignant cultures after World War II: In those cases, the West was able to successfully eradicate Nazism in Germany and imperialism in Japan because the Allies were the victors and occupiers of those two countries after the Second World War. By contrast, when the Soviet Union finally collapsed under its own weight in 1991, Communist Party leaders simply tossed aside their party pins, threw on business suits, and overnight became "managers". Over time, the shrewdest and most unscrupulous in Russia became billionaire kleptocrats. After 1991, there were no arrests, no Nuremberg tribunals...nothing. No one was held accountable for 70+ years of communism. Neither the West nor Ukraine is going to occupy the Russian Federation (or what's left of it) after this war ends. That means the task of finally coming to grips with the past, and with all the poisonous aspects of their culture, is not going to be imposed on Russia by victorious foreigners. Instead, that is going to be a task for the Russian people to do THEMSELVES. But here's the problem: For the past 23 years, Putin's authoritarian regime managed to drive all serious political opponents into exile, jail them, or very publicly kill them (as a lesson to other foolhardy souls contemplating political reform). So who is going to LEAD this necessary oncological procedure, to eliminate the malignant cancer that has infected Russia's national culture for centuries? When Putin finally goes, I suspect there will be one or two interim figures before Russia finally gets a leader who has a shot at righting the ship. But who will that person be? Whoever it is, that person will certainly have a tough road ahead of him (or her).

[Rimbo 25,752]

8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

This is the real problem with Russia; as much as the civilized world loathes Vladimir #Putin, the sad, troublesome truth is that he could disappear from the face of the earth tomorrow, along with his entire kleptocratic regime, and #Russia would STILL be a significant problem for its neighbors and the civilized world because of its malignant national culture. Look at the significant effort the West had to undertake, for decades, to transform German and Japanese malignant cultures after World War II: In those cases, the West was able to successfully eradicate Nazism in Germany and imperialism in Japan because the Allies were the victors and occupiers of those two countries after the Second World War. By contrast, when the Soviet Union finally collapsed under its own weight in 1991, Communist Party leaders simply tossed aside their party pins, threw on business suits, and overnight became "managers". Over time, the shrewdest and most unscrupulous in Russia became billionaire kleptocrats. After 1991, there were no arrests, no Nuremberg tribunals...nothing. No one was held accountable for 70+ years of communism. Neither the West nor Ukraine is going to occupy the Russian Federation (or what's left of it) after this war ends. That means the task of finally coming to grips with the past, and with all the poisonous aspects of their culture, is not going to be imposed on Russia by victorious foreigners. Instead, that is going to be a task for the Russian people to do THEMSELVES. But here's the problem: For the past 23 years, Putin's authoritarian regime managed to drive all serious political opponents into exile, jail them, or very publicly kill them (as a lesson to other foolhardy souls contemplating political reform). So who is going to LEAD this necessary oncological procedure, to eliminate the malignant cancer that has infected Russia's national culture for centuries? When Putin finally goes, I suspect there will be one or two interim figures before Russia finally gets a leader who has a shot at righting the ship. But who will that person be? Whoever it is, that person will certainly have a tough road ahead of him (or her).

I mean, it's worse than that: Even if you could somehow reform the country's government, you can't change the geopolitical reality. Moscow will always need buffer states, the more the better, on their Western borders for security, and warm weather ports under their control to ship their resources from.

[SL Xpress 7,504]

25 minutes ago, The Dog said:

This is the real problem with Russia; as much as the civilized world loathes Vladimir #Putin, the sad, troublesome truth is that he could disappear from the face of the earth tomorrow, along with his entire kleptocratic regime, and #Russia would STILL be a significant problem for its neighbors and the civilized world because of its malignant national culture. Look at the significant effort the West had to undertake, for decades, to transform German and Japanese malignant cultures after World War II: In those cases, the West was able to successfully eradicate Nazism in Germany and imperialism in Japan because the Allies were the victors and occupiers of those two countries after the Second World War. By contrast, when the Soviet Union finally collapsed under its own weight in 1991, Communist Party leaders simply tossed aside their party pins, threw on business suits, and overnight became "managers". Over time, the shrewdest and most unscrupulous in Russia became billionaire kleptocrats. After 1991, there were no arrests, no Nuremberg tribunals...nothing. No one was held accountable for 70+ years of communism. Neither the West nor Ukraine is going to occupy the Russian Federation (or what's left of it) after this war ends. That means the task of finally coming to grips with the past, and with all the poisonous aspects of their culture, is not going to be imposed on Russia by victorious foreigners. Instead, that is going to be a task for the Russian people to do THEMSELVES. But here's the problem: For the past 23 years, Putin's authoritarian regime managed to drive all serious political opponents into exile, jail them, or very publicly kill them (as a lesson to other foolhardy souls contemplating political reform). So who is going to LEAD this necessary oncological procedure, to eliminate the malignant cancer that has infected Russia's national culture for centuries? When Putin finally goes, I suspect there will be one or two interim figures before Russia finally gets a leader who has a shot at righting the ship. But who will that person be? Whoever it is, that person will certainly have a tough road ahead of him (or her).

There won’t be any “righting of the ship.” There will be another strong man autocrat. This is a foolish and misplaced way of thinking about the future of Russia. 

What we should be celebrating is the possible excision of Ukraine from that poisonous orbit. It’s not over by a long shot, but the fact they’re this close to being able to finally throw off the yoke of Russian domination is a reason for mass celebration. 

But there is no chance of some kind of reformation of Russia. None. 

And to be honest, I’m not completely convinced there’s been a total reformation of Germany and Japan. They were successfully demilitarized and their constitutions were enshrined with protections from having any real offensive military capabilities whatsoever, but in economic terms you’d be hard pressed to find two economies more predatory than Germany and Japan with their export led economic growth strategies. Not to mention Japan’s success led to China following suit. 

There’s no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. There’s a hill, and we’re pushing a boulder up it, and when we get near the top it’s going to roll down again. The key thing in all of this is to try to be a civilization/culture worth aspiring to, and then continue to ensure our existence. 

But it’s dumb to talk about the possibility of Russia reforming. Just like it was when Yeltsin was president. It ain’t happening. The best we can hope for is it splits into several different pieces so none of them have the power of the Soviet Union. 

Edited June 7, 2023 by SL Xpress

[Dahobbs 17,420]

1 hour ago, Tuco said:

1. Pretty much all human intelligence sources are anonymous to the public.  The European spy agency who fed the CIA the information knows who it is. It's not like it was posted on a message board.    

2. That doesn't necessarily mean the Ukrainians did it.  It would be surprising if they didn't have conceptual plans drawn up on how to blow up the pipelines.  But it does demonstrate they perceived some advantages in destroying it.  

3. I still absolutely do not fucking care if they did.  They are fighting for their lives. 

 

 

I wasn't saying it was anonymous to the public, but rather it appeared to be anonymous to the intelligence agency based on the article. At any rate, it wasn't corroborated and that single release doesn't give enough context to determine whether it should be taken seriously or not. Agree on the rest of your points.  

[The Dog 43,771]

4 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

There won’t be any “righting of the ship.” There will be another strong man autocrat. This is a foolish and misplaced way of thinking about the future of Russia. 

 

That's Hoffman's point. He's saying what needs to happen but what he admits will happen is what you say - another strong man autocrat. 

Look at everyone vying to replace Putin - it's all heads of the various PMCs and warlords. 

These aren't good people.

[Kennythetiger 9,333]

31 minutes ago, The Dog said:

This is the real problem with Russia; as much as the civilized world loathes Vladimir #Putin, the sad, troublesome truth is that he could disappear from the face of the earth tomorrow, along with his entire kleptocratic regime, and #Russia would STILL be a significant problem for its neighbors and the civilized world because of its malignant national culture. Look at the significant effort the West had to undertake, for decades, to transform German and Japanese malignant cultures after World War II: In those cases, the West was able to successfully eradicate Nazism in Germany and imperialism in Japan because the Allies were the victors and occupiers of those two countries after the Second World War. By contrast, when the Soviet Union finally collapsed under its own weight in 1991, Communist Party leaders simply tossed aside their party pins, threw on business suits, and overnight became "managers". Over time, the shrewdest and most unscrupulous in Russia became billionaire kleptocrats. After 1991, there were no arrests, no Nuremberg tribunals...nothing. No one was held accountable for 70+ years of communism. Neither the West nor Ukraine is going to occupy the Russian Federation (or what's left of it) after this war ends. That means the task of finally coming to grips with the past, and with all the poisonous aspects of their culture, is not going to be imposed on Russia by victorious foreigners. Instead, that is going to be a task for the Russian people to do THEMSELVES. But here's the problem: For the past 23 years, Putin's authoritarian regime managed to drive all serious political opponents into exile, jail them, or very publicly kill them (as a lesson to other foolhardy souls contemplating political reform). So who is going to LEAD this necessary oncological procedure, to eliminate the malignant cancer that has infected Russia's national culture for centuries? When Putin finally goes, I suspect there will be one or two interim figures before Russia finally gets a leader who has a shot at righting the ship. But who will that person be? Whoever it is, that person will certainly have a tough road ahead of him (or her).

This comes across as kind of arrogant to me. 

[ABSR 5,289]

7 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

I mean, it's worse than that: Even if you could somehow reform the country's government, you can't change the geopolitical reality. Moscow will always need buffer states, the more the better, on their Western borders for security, and warm weather ports under their control to ship their resources from.

But they DON'T need buffer states.  They say they do, but NATO has not invaded anyone.  Others have begged to join NATO and to join the EU and free world/free economy, but there is no imminent invasion except by Russia against anyone it thinks it can bully.

And without Crimea they still have access to warm water ports on the Black Sea as they have other territory that is on the Black Sea.

The real problem is that they are aggy, and have the little brother, red headed step child, small man syndromes where they want everyone to think and treat them like they are the greatest at everything and bow down to them.  Meduza had an article where they got quotes from Russians who did not and don't support the Ukranian war, but then say... "But now that we are in the war we HAVE TO WIN", even as they say how horrible what they are doing is. 

I am sure not everyone thinks this way, but it is somewhat of an ingrained Russian cultural perspective.

 

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/03/the-only-thing-worse-than-war-is-losing-one?utm_source=email&utm_medium=briefly&utm_campaign=2023-06-06

[956 Worldwide 34,313]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

That's Hoffman's point. He's saying what needs to happen but what he admits will happen is what you say - another strong man autocrat. 

Look at everyone vying to replace Putin - it's all heads of the various PMCs and warlords. 

These aren't good people.

There’s a conspiracy theory floating around below the surface in the Russian-language only space that Prigozhin is being allowed and encouraged in his antics so that Russians will believe the only alternative to Putin is someone nuts like Prigozhin. Fake opposition. 

[Post Oak 20,182]

39 minutes ago, The Dog said:

This is the real problem with Russia; as much as the civilized world loathes Vladimir #Putin, the sad, troublesome truth is that he could disappear from the face of the earth tomorrow, along with his entire kleptocratic regime, and #Russia would STILL be a significant problem for its neighbors and the civilized world because of its malignant national culture. Look at the significant effort the West had to undertake, for decades, to transform German and Japanese malignant cultures after World War II: In those cases, the West was able to successfully eradicate Nazism in Germany and imperialism in Japan because the Allies were the victors and occupiers of those two countries after the Second World War. By contrast, when the Soviet Union finally collapsed under its own weight in 1991, Communist Party leaders simply tossed aside their party pins, threw on business suits, and overnight became "managers". Over time, the shrewdest and most unscrupulous in Russia became billionaire kleptocrats. After 1991, there were no arrests, no Nuremberg tribunals...nothing. No one was held accountable for 70+ years of communism. Neither the West nor Ukraine is going to occupy the Russian Federation (or what's left of it) after this war ends. That means the task of finally coming to grips with the past, and with all the poisonous aspects of their culture, is not going to be imposed on Russia by victorious foreigners. Instead, that is going to be a task for the Russian people to do THEMSELVES. But here's the problem: For the past 23 years, Putin's authoritarian regime managed to drive all serious political opponents into exile, jail them, or very publicly kill them (as a lesson to other foolhardy souls contemplating political reform). So who is going to LEAD this necessary oncological procedure, to eliminate the malignant cancer that has infected Russia's national culture for centuries? When Putin finally goes, I suspect there will be one or two interim figures before Russia finally gets a leader who has a shot at righting the ship. But who will that person be? Whoever it is, that person will certainly have a tough road ahead of him (or her).

Same could be said for aggie

1 hour ago, Homesickhorn said:

I'm not. I've been playing around with this girl for a few months.  Even took her to Luckenbach.  Her brother is still in Ukraine fighting.

 

 

Hasn't this poor woman been through enough already.

[SL Xpress 7,504]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

That's Hoffman's point. He's saying what needs to happen but what he admits will happen is what you say - another strong man autocrat. 

Look at everyone vying to replace Putin - it's all heads of the various PMCs and warlords. 

These aren't good people.

“When Putin finally goes, I suspect there will be one or two interim figures before Russia finally gets a leader who has a shot at righting the ship. But who will that person be? Whoever it is, that person will certainly have a tough road ahead of him (or her).”

It’s not a bug. It’s a feature. 

The kind of western style collaboration necessary to function in a representative government is seen as weakness in Russian culture. 

Who is their George Washington? Their Abraham Lincoln? All of their admired leaders - including Putin, and whoever ends up taking over for the long term after he’s gone - are ruthless despots. It’s how their society is structured from the top down. I’m not saying every single Russian is supportive of that. I’m saying the few that aren’t have never had any power and are seen as outliers by the rest of society. To the ruthless people who take power they’re the suckers, the sheep, the peasants, who deserve to be ruled over because that’s their lot in life. And the Russian culture is so fucking fatalistic for the most part - fatalism is possibly the strongest fucking strand in the DNA of Russian culture - that they’ll go along with it. 

That’s a big part of what I admire so much about the Ukrainians. In so many ways they’ve told the Russians “fuck you, we’re not accepting your fatalistic bullshit any more.” 

To me that’s what the Orange Revolution and the Maidan Revolution were about. And I’ll tell you what. After this war is over and the reforms for corruption still keep going nowhere for the most part - which is what I predict will happen - those fuckers are going to do it again. They’ll simply gather by the hundreds of thousands in Kyiv to say “no more!”

That shit simply isn’t going to occur in Russia. Someone will take charge and start murdering and jailing people until no one is protesting any more, just like they always have. To expect something different is foolish, IMO. 

[SL Xpress 7,504]

9 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s a conspiracy theory floating around below the surface in the Russian-language only space that Prigozhin is being allowed and encouraged in his antics so that Russians will believe the only alternative to Putin is someone nuts like Prigozhin. Fake opposition. 

That’s certainly been Putin’s M.O..

But who knows what he’s doing. He’s not playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. He made a colossal fuckup by invading Ukraine, but instead of owning up to it he’s punishing anyone who wants to be realistic to him about what’s going on. There is nothing but disaster ahead for Russia. Just hope it doesn’t end in a mushroom cloud. Or multiple ones. 

[956 Worldwide 34,313]

A couple dozen Dutch F-16s have been freed up, (coincidentally?) at the same time that Zelenskyy announced a powerful offer for F-16s. Some of them are two-seaters, which are needed for training. The Dutch scaled back a planned sale to a contract adversary company. 
 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/dozens-of-dutch-f-16s-were-just-freed-up-potentially-for-ukraine

 

Reminder: The Russians kicked off this war in part by murdering Dutch citizens by shooting down an airliner. 

 

[956 Worldwide 34,313]

3 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

That’s certainly been Putin’s M.O..

But who knows what he’s doing. He’s not playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. He made a colossal fuckup by invading Ukraine, but instead of owning up to it he’s punishing anyone who wants to be realistic to him about what’s going on. There is nothing but disaster ahead for Russia. Just hope it doesn’t end in a mushroom cloud. Or multiple ones. 

I’ve posted this before, but Putin thinks like a spook who is too clever by half. That’s part of why he’s fucked up the war— he’s not a military man— but he’s been extremely effective at maintaining a grip over an unruly nation at a time of great uncertainty.  And he uses his whole bag of tricks. 

[SydneyCarton 47,809]

Russia isn't fucking changing. Period. What you do now is you beat their asses, watch them tumble into 10 or 20 years or whatever of fucking despair, and while that happens and their shit isn't together, you fortify the border of every NATO country that can fuck their shit up, and you force them to go East if they want to fucking plunder. Go pick a fight with fucking China. And you keep those sanctions going. They can either figure out how to build a prosperous country based upon their own renewed internal industry, or they can rot. They want Sanctions removed? That'll be the fucking nukes. That's my fantasyland long term solution for those shitbirds. 

Can they even build a modern military after they completely grind what they have now into the dust? Make them find out, but good luck. 

Edited June 7, 2023 by SydneyCarton

[The Dog 43,771]

3 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

A push towards Tokmak would be huge. I mean, obviously, but anything successful along that line of axis opens up all kinds of opportunities.

Edit: I'm not really adding anything here. Just looking at maps and imagining possibilities.

oh hello Tokmak!

 

[Brisketexan 104,462]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

This is the real problem with Russia; as much as the civilized world loathes Vladimir #Putin, the sad, troublesome truth is that he could disappear from the face of the earth tomorrow, along with his entire kleptocratic regime, and #Russia would STILL be a significant problem for its neighbors and the civilized world because of its malignant national culture. Look at the significant effort the West had to undertake, for decades, to transform German and Japanese malignant cultures after World War II: In those cases, the West was able to successfully eradicate Nazism in Germany and imperialism in Japan because the Allies were the victors and occupiers of those two countries after the Second World War. By contrast, when the Soviet Union finally collapsed under its own weight in 1991, Communist Party leaders simply tossed aside their party pins, threw on business suits, and overnight became "managers". Over time, the shrewdest and most unscrupulous in Russia became billionaire kleptocrats. After 1991, there were no arrests, no Nuremberg tribunals...nothing. No one was held accountable for 70+ years of communism. Neither the West nor Ukraine is going to occupy the Russian Federation (or what's left of it) after this war ends. That means the task of finally coming to grips with the past, and with all the poisonous aspects of their culture, is not going to be imposed on Russia by victorious foreigners. Instead, that is going to be a task for the Russian people to do THEMSELVES. But here's the problem: For the past 23 years, Putin's authoritarian regime managed to drive all serious political opponents into exile, jail them, or very publicly kill them (as a lesson to other foolhardy souls contemplating political reform). So who is going to LEAD this necessary oncological procedure, to eliminate the malignant cancer that has infected Russia's national culture for centuries? When Putin finally goes, I suspect there will be one or two interim figures before Russia finally gets a leader who has a shot at righting the ship. But who will that person be? Whoever it is, that person will certainly have a tough road ahead of him (or her).

This.  All of this....

37 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

There won’t be any “righting of the ship.” There will be another strong man autocrat. This is a foolish and misplaced way of thinking about the future of Russia. 

What we should be celebrating is the possible excision of Ukraine from that poisonous orbit. It’s not over by a long shot, but the fact they’re this close to being able to finally throw off the yoke of Russian domination is a reason for mass celebration. 

But there is no chance of some kind of reformation of Russia. None. 

.......

But it’s dumb to talk about the possibility of Russia reforming. Just like it was when Yeltsin was president. It ain’t happening. The best we can hope for is it splits into several different pieces so none of them have the power of the Soviet Union. 

Because all of this.  Russia can't be reformed.  It can't be fixed.  The best plan is to relatively neuter it.

24 minutes ago, ABSR said:

The real problem is that they are aggy, and have the little brother, red headed step child, small man syndromes where they want everyone to think and treat them like they are the greatest at everything and bow down to them.  Meduza had an article where they got quotes from Russians who did not and don't support the Ukranian war, but then say... "But now that we are in the war we HAVE TO WIN", even as they say how horrible what they are doing is. 

I am sure not everyone thinks this way, but it is somewhat of an ingrained Russian cultural perspective.

And that's what we have to understand.  It truly is a nation of aggy thinking -- in the same breath, they go on and on about how Russia is the bestest everything ever, and the world wouldn't have ANY culture or civilization without them, and Russia is an unstoppable juggernaut, the greatest power the world has ever seen.....but also Russia can never get ahead and prosper and really have its place in the world because those evil mustache-twirlers in the west won't let them.  They are a nation of pathetic cognitive dissonance.  And they are never, ever going to get past it.  They are irreparably broken, and they're going to stay that way.

[Tuco 5,076]

18 minutes ago, ABSR said:

But they DON'T need buffer states.  They say they do, but NATO has not invaded anyone.  Others have begged to join NATO and to join the EU and free world/free economy, but there is no imminent invasion except by Russia against anyone it thinks it can bully.

And without Crimea they still have access to warm water ports on the Black Sea as they have other territory that is on the Black Sea.

The real problem is that they are aggy, and have the little brother, red headed step child, small man syndromes where they want everyone to think and treat them like they are the greatest at everything and bow down to them.  Meduza had an article where they got quotes from Russians who did not and don't support the Ukranian war, but then say... "But now that we are in the war we HAVE TO WIN", even as they say how horrible what they are doing is. 

I am sure not everyone thinks this way, but it is somewhat of an ingrained Russian cultural perspective.

 

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/03/the-only-thing-worse-than-war-is-losing-one?utm_source=email&utm_medium=briefly&utm_campaign=2023-06-06

The potential of the Ukrainian economy is a bigger threat to the Russian power brokers than NATO.  Ideally, Ukraine wins this war, they continue to make progress in countering corruption, the west pours a shitload of investment into the country, the average Ukrainian has their standard of living greatly increased, and the average Russian watches it all from a very close distance, both geographically and culturally.  At that point, all the discussions on arm treaties and pipelines won't make any difference.  It will boil down to people wanting a better life for themselves and their children, and Putin being in the way of that.  

[I assume this has already been said a bunch of times, a bunch of different ways, on this thread.]

 

[956 Worldwide 34,313]

2 minutes ago, Tuco said:

The potential of the Ukrainian economy is a bigger threat to the Russian power brokers than NATO.  Ideally, Ukraine wins this war, they continue to make progress in countering corruption, the west pours a shitload of investment into the country, the average Ukrainian has their standard of living greatly increased, and the average Russian watches it all from a very close distance, both geographically and culturally.  At that point, all the discussions on arm treaties and pipelines won't make any difference.  It will boil down to people wanting a better life for themselves and their children, and Putin being in the way of that.  

[I assume this has already been said a bunch of times, a bunch of different ways, on this thread.]

 

This has always been the real issue from the beginning. Russia’s conception of itself as an empire cannot exist without Ukraine and Russia’s self-image as a great Slavic power cannot exist if Ukraine is successful and exists prosperously and integrated with the West. 
 

Always remember that the start of the war in 2014 was precipitated by Ukrainian moves to associate with the EU via a trade agreement, it had zero to do with NATO. 

[Nivek 16,807]

2 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Please don't devalue how I feel about the suffering of animals.

I am active financially and personally in many animal rescue efforts.

I'm not PETAtarded level tho.

Of course I don't propose the genocide of all Russians. Just the bad ones 

No normal person likes to see animals suffer.  I searched the pouch of a dead possum (hit by a car) and took the baby to a shelter, and I would like to think that most people would do this too, even if I am deluding myself a little.   But after Bucha where they raped little girls and moms while forcing their kids to watch, I think that enrages me a little more than the dogs/cats/zoo.   It sure sucks for them.  I hope the survivors get fat on russian corpses.  

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

18 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

That’s certainly been Putin’s M.O..

But who knows what he’s doing. He’s not playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. He made a colossal fuckup by invading Ukraine, but instead of owning up to it he’s punishing anyone who wants to be realistic to him about what’s going on. There is nothing but disaster ahead for Russia. Just hope it doesn’t end in a mushroom cloud. Or multiple ones. 

The only good thing is that Russian youth are seeing the rest of the world on social media doing all the things that they'd probably like to be doing, and seeing a standard of living that they dream about (the rural Russians are stealing washing machines and toilets for a reason).

Of course, up to 750,000 of those Russian youth/young adults fled in the wake of mobilization fears, so a major chunk of Russia that would love to see reforms, etc., have already left the country.

Russia is slowly dying off though, and the war is wiping out even more eligible sperm donors /Zeihan

5 minutes ago, Tuco said:

The potential of the Ukrainian economy is a bigger threat to the Russian power brokers than NATO.  Ideally, Ukraine wins this war, they continue to make progress in countering corruption, the west pours a shitload of investment into the country, the average Ukrainian has their standard of living greatly increased, and the average Russian watches it all from a very close distance, both geographically and culturally.  At that point, all the discussions on arm treaties and pipelines won't make any difference.  It will boil down to people wanting a better life for themselves and their children, and Putin being in the way of that.  

[I assume this has already been said a bunch of times, a bunch of different ways, on this thread.]

There was a major effort to get Ukraine offshore assets online prior to Feb 2022, and the natural customers would have been the rest of Europe, which cuts into Russia's profits. Russian state TV even mentioned driving to Odesa and then having control over the offshore stuff once they annex it.

Ukraine was a very clear economic threat.

[SL Xpress 7,504]

16 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I’ve posted this before, but Putin thinks like a spook who is too clever by half. That’s part of why he’s fucked up the war— he’s not a military man— but he’s been extremely effective at maintaining a grip over an unruly nation at a time of great uncertainty.  And he uses his whole bag of tricks. 

He’s also a bureaucrat, not an operative. 

Hes basically the head of a mafia, but he thinks he’s Michael Corleone when he’s really Don Barzini. 

[Chad Fuck 17,503]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

This is the real problem with Russia; as much as the civilized world loathes Vladimir #Putin, the sad, troublesome truth is that he could disappear from the face of the earth tomorrow, along with his entire kleptocratic regime, and #Russia would STILL be a significant problem for its neighbors and the civilized world because of its malignant national culture. Look at the significant effort the West had to undertake, for decades, to transform German and Japanese malignant cultures after World War II: In those cases, the West was able to successfully eradicate Nazism in Germany and imperialism in Japan because the Allies were the victors and occupiers of those two countries after the Second World War. By contrast, when the Soviet Union finally collapsed under its own weight in 1991, Communist Party leaders simply tossed aside their party pins, threw on business suits, and overnight became "managers". Over time, the shrewdest and most unscrupulous in Russia became billionaire kleptocrats. After 1991, there were no arrests, no Nuremberg tribunals...nothing. No one was held accountable for 70+ years of communism. Neither the West nor Ukraine is going to occupy the Russian Federation (or what's left of it) after this war ends. That means the task of finally coming to grips with the past, and with all the poisonous aspects of their culture, is not going to be imposed on Russia by victorious foreigners. Instead, that is going to be a task for the Russian people to do THEMSELVES. But here's the problem: For the past 23 years, Putin's authoritarian regime managed to drive all serious political opponents into exile, jail them, or very publicly kill them (as a lesson to other foolhardy souls contemplating political reform). So who is going to LEAD this necessary oncological procedure, to eliminate the malignant cancer that has infected Russia's national culture for centuries? When Putin finally goes, I suspect there will be one or two interim figures before Russia finally gets a leader who has a shot at righting the ship. But who will that person be? Whoever it is, that person will certainly have a tough road ahead of him (or her).

[Macanudo 12,922]

19 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Russia isn't fucking changing. Period. What you do now is you beat their asses, watch them tumble into 10 or 20 years or whatever of fucking despair, and while that happens and their shit isn't together, you fortify the border of every NATO country that can fuck their shit up, and you force them to go East if they want to fucking plunder. Go pick a fight with fucking China. And you keep those sanctions going. They can either figure out how to build a prosperous country based upon their own renewed internal industry, or they can rot. They want Sanctions removed? That'll be the fucking nukes. That's my fantasyland long term solution for those shitbirds. 

Can they even build a modern military after they completely grind what they have now into the dust? Make them find out, but good luck. 

I don't know that they look to China but instead the other 'Stans.   

[SydneyCarton 47,809]

4 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

I don't know that they look to China but instead the other 'Stans.   

None of those get them any warm water ports. Have the fuck at it. Afghanistan worked out real well, and that's when their military wasn't complete shut and they weren't suffering from brain drain and a massive demographic crisis. 

[KYHorn 16,808]

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1666523483222822916?t=JCrtzQ8yiazJAvByCqdT5A&s=19b 

[PTINS 3,442]

48 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

And to be honest, I’m not completely convinced there’s been a total reformation of Germany and Japan. They were successfully demilitarized and their constitutions were enshrined with protections from having any real offensive military capabilities whatsoever, but in economic terms you’d be hard pressed to find two economies more predatory than Germany and Japan with their export led economic growth strategies. Not to mention Japan’s success led to China following suit. 

SL, I agree with your comments, except this part. I don't really disagree with your point, just the words used to characterize it. 

Germany & Japan were forced to abandon their imperialist, expansionist aspirations, and funneled that energy inward.

Give me some rope here.  When you combine ...

• Recognizing the obvious, that the US Industrial capacity & efficiency won WWII.
• Worldwide transition from a depression/war economy to the boom from all the babies
• G&J each peg the meter on work ethic, probably to a fault
• Industrial capacity far in excess of domestic needs and consumption
• Minuscule Government spending on Defense, or Korea or Viet Nam or the Cold War
• Increased Government spending on infrastructure
• Minimal Corporate expenses associated with a punitive driven legal system
• Acceptance of more Democratic & Capitalistic ideals

The result is an entity that works harder to make a better products at cheaper costs, to the detriment of anyone else, ... two efficient, high functioning economies with export driven growth strategies.

Ironically, one thing hasn't changed; they are still dependent on reasonably priced energy imports to make it all work.

[PTINS 3,442]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Russia isn't fucking changing. Period. What you do now is you beat their asses, watch them tumble into 10 or 20 years or whatever of fucking despair, and while that happens and their shit isn't together, you fortify the border of every NATO country that can fuck their shit up, and you force them to go East if they want to fucking plunder. Go pick a fight with fucking China. And you keep those sanctions going. They can either figure out how to build a prosperous country based upon their own renewed internal industry, or they can rot. They want Sanctions removed? That'll be the fucking nukes. That's my fantasyland long term solution for those shitbirds. 

Can they even build a modern military after they completely grind what they have now into the dust? Make them find out, but good luck. 

"It Can't Be Bargained With. It Can't Be Reasoned With... And It Absolutely Will Not Stop, Ever... Until You Are Dead!"

Sydney, you nailed it, buddy.

[Hefeweizen 5,307]

4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Based on what the engineers here have said, I just don’t see how AFU blows this dam. Maybe multiple hits by cruise missiles, which would be hard to conceal? I think @Hefeweizen said maybe a special bunker-buster bomb they they don’t have in their arsenal and couldn’t deliver? They for sure have not shelled it with big enough guns, for long enough. 
 

Not a perfect example but look at what the massive truck bomb did to the Kerch Strait bridge, which is a much weaker structure.  I just don’t see how this came down as anything but from inside. Which the Ukrainians didn’t control. 
 

But I’m out of my depth on engineering and if a good engineer tells me different, I can be convinced. 

The dam busting bombs in WW2 used by the Brit’s were 4000 kg.  That is compared to a 500 kg normal size.  Yeah.

It was placed explosives on weak points to create a failure.  Not shelling which is a ludicrous assertion.

[Rimbo 25,752]

2 hours ago, Rimbo said:

I mean, it's worse than that: Even if you could somehow reform the country's government, you can't change the geopolitical reality. Moscow will always need buffer states, the more the better, on their Western borders for security, and warm weather ports under their control to ship their resources from.

who the fuck is "auto driller" and why is he negging this

did we just find GRU's new sock?

[SydneyCarton 47,809]

1 minute ago, Hefeweizen said:

The dam busting bombs in WW2 used by the Brit’s were 4000 kg.  That is compared to a 500 kg normal size.  Yeah.

It was placed explosives on weak points to create a failure.  Not shelling which is a ludicrous assertion.

So Ludicrous that Russians thought it was a good idea after the fact to shell the dam in an effort to video and prove it was Ukraine. 
If Russia thinks it's a plausible idea, well, we all know the reality. 

1 minute ago, Rimbo said:

who the fuck is "auto driller" and why is he negging this

did we just find GRU's new sock?

No, he's back as Mullet Free as of yesterday. 

[Rimbo 25,752]

2 hours ago, ABSR said:

But they DON'T need buffer states.  They say they do, but NATO has not invaded anyone.

You're thinking far too short-term. Russia has been invaded twice in the past 250 years alone, surviving by torching their own infrastructure and due to shit weather. There are no natural borders between Western Europe and Moscow to otherwise slow down another invasion.

Whatever the current political reality, this geography will not ever change, and will always be a security problem for whatever regime is in charge in Moscow.

But it works both ways. It's also a problem for Western Europe.

[Parliament 14,112]

3 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Russians don't save dogs.  Russians EAT dogs.

[Macanudo 12,922]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

None of those get them any warm water ports. Have the fuck at it. Afghanistan worked out real well, and that's when their military wasn't complete shut and they weren't suffering from brain drain and a massive demographic crisis. 

Correct, they don't get a warm water port but they do distract the citizenry from the fact that they live in a shithole.

[Viper 12,011]

3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Russians don't save dogs.  Russians EAT dogs.

 

 

 

 

[SL Xpress 7,504]

28 minutes ago, PTINS said:

SL, I agree with your comments, except this part. I don't really disagree with your point, just the words used to characterize it. 

Germany & Japan were forced to abandon their imperialist, expansionist aspirations, and funneled that energy inward.

Give me some rope here.  When you combine ...

• Recognizing the obvious, that the US Industrial capacity & efficiency won WWII.
• Worldwide transition from a depression/war economy to the boom from all the babies
• G&J each peg the meter on work ethic, probably to a fault
• Industrial capacity far in excess of domestic needs and consumption
• Minuscule Government spending on Defense, or Korea or Viet Nam or the Cold War
• Increased Government spending on infrastructure
• Minimal Corporate expenses associated with a punitive driven legal system
• Acceptance of more Democratic & Capitalistic ideals

The result is an entity that works harder to make a better products at cheaper costs, to the detriment of anyone else, ... two efficient, high functioning economies with export driven growth strategies.

Ironically, one thing hasn't changed; they are still dependent on reasonably priced energy imports to make it all work.

I feel like there's room here for reasonable people to agree to disagree to an extent.

It comes down to my fundamental view of humanity, which is we are a tribal species by nature where it takes an extensive amount of cultural programming to overcome those natural tribal instincts, and that programming is always extraordinarily fragile from one generation to the next. 

My argument would be that the evil actions we associate with Japan and Germany during World War II were actions that have been performed throughout human history and prehistory. It's the inevitable end result of tribalism taken to its furthest point. I say inevitable purposefully, because unless consciously combatted both individually by all of us searching out our natural prejudices and the reasons we hold them, as well as society as a whole having a cultural imperative to protect tribes without the current means to power, so that they can at some point in the future hold the reins of power, the end result is some type of repression and possibly extermination on a grand scale. 

Whatever else Germany and Japan have done, there can be little doubt their innate sense of superiority is intact and healthy as ever. 

With Germany I feel like its best display was during the debt crisis following the 2008 global financial meltdown - particularly their position regarding Greece - and their attitudes towards Turkish immigrants. 

With Japan, I'd argue it's the most xenophobic country on the planet. That's a natural result of being an island nation that has only suffered one military conquest in its history. 

While it's true their economies are admirable in many respects, it's also true they have extensive cultural impediments to operating with a current account deficit, including the institutional and cultural difficulties in successfully exporting goods and services to either country, the cultural and institutional pressure to be high savers rather than consumers, and the meshing across sectors between various industries, most notably banking and other financial institutions, which is done to a significant degree to protect domestic ownership and management. 

I'd argue that many of the aspects of their economies the rest of the world might be better off emulating, rather than casting them as some kind of villain. But regardless, they rely on the rest of the world to buy their goods and services to maintain their economic growth, and then they lend the money earned back to those consumer nations so they can buy more goods and services. It's changed somewhat for Germany since the advent of the euro, and become much more European centric, but the dynamics are still firmly in place. 

At its heart it's a predatory economic model. For a nascent economy trying to grow, it makes sense. Coming out of World War II, with both industrial bases obliterated, both countries are absolutely success stories. But at this point they're both mature economies who sociologically refuse to become more consumption/import reliant. It would be different if some years they maintained high current account surpluses while in others they had high current account deficits, but that's not how either country works. 

Again, I don't want to say this is entirely Japan and Germany's fault. The rest of the world has responsibilities in how they operate and maintain their economies. I'm simply saying that the current global economic model is unsustainable. It depends to a significant extent on various countries running massive current account deficits every year, and having the money funneled back by buying assets or lending the money through the purchase of bonds to keep the cycle going. That's a predatory cycle which will eventually be changed. Probably catastrophically. The 2008 debt crisis was a fundamental unfolding of this dynamic, but there will be others. And eventually there will be bigger ruptures. 

All of this is way off the topic of the thread. I'm merely posting this as an aside to whatshisface on Twitter (Huffman maybe?) comparing the future cultural change in Russia to what has already transpired in Germany in Japan, with the response that things aren't changing in Russia, and I also have some questions regarding how much things have changed fundamentally in Germany and Japan, although it's true neither one is seeking to dominate their neighbors through military force. 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

 

[Gravy Train 974]

This is rich.  Margarita Simonyan has lost the plot and probably got a better look at all those Storm Shadows recently delivered by Wallace.

https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/07/margarita-simonyan-predlozhila-prekratit-voynu-potomu-chto-vsu-poluchat-rakety-i-budut-nanosit-udary-po-nam

Quote

Pro-Kremlin media and bloggers are discussing the words of RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan, who said that in order to avoid further shelling of the Belgorod region, the war should be stopped and “referendums in disputed territories” of Ukraine should be held.

The propagandist spoke about this on June 4 on the air of “Evenings with Vladimir Solovyov” on the Russia 1 TV channel. Simonyan used language from the plan for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, proposed the day before by Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto. He advocated an immediate ceasefire, the creation of a demilitarized zone and the deployment of international peacekeeping forces in it, as well as the holding of referendums in "disputed territories" through the mediation of the UN.

Quote

Here are quotes from Simonyan's speech with minor cuts:

The Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive long-range missiles and fighter jets. They will inflict all blows on us, on our territories. Belgorod region, they will go further, Voronezh region is not far there, God forbid, Rostov region, Krasnodar is my native, and so on. I'm talking about the Crimea.

And what will be the red line for us then? For some reason, it seems to me that the red line is the damage that is comparable to the damage that will be inflicted on us when we cross this line. We have not crossed the line - strikes against those with whom we are actually at war ... At some point, we will have to strike at the airfields from which these fighters will take off, at the factories where all this is produced, at the places of dispatch , by ports. But after all and they same will respond. But it will be, as they say in America “cake fight”, like children throwing cakes at everyone at a holiday. It will be a difficult story, both for them and for us. I wish it didn't come to this.

Indonesia has come up with a wonderful plan. I'm not just signing up to this plan, I've said it myself. I've been talking about this all year, how wonderful it would be to stop the bloodshed right now. Stay where everyone is, freeze and continue to hold referendums, as suggested by Indonesia. Referenda in all disputed territories. And where people want, with whom they want to stay, this territory remains with that. It's fair. Well, okay? Do we need territories that do not want to live with us? I'm not sure about this. And for some reason it seems to me that the president does not need them either.

It would be great, but there is one catch: they will never agree on this.

Then Simonyan recalled that Ukraine is ready to sit down at the negotiating table only if all its territories, including Crimea, are liberated. In response to this, the host Vladimir Solovyov said that the topic of negotiations should be closed altogether, because Russia allegedly has no one to negotiate with - “they don’t negotiate with terrorists, they destroy terrorists.”

As the  review of the telegram channel “All Quiet on the Zzzzzwestern Front” says, Simonyan’s statement provoked “fierce indignation, accusations of betrayal and a stream of insults” in pro-war blogs. The words of the propagandist were perceived as a stuffing from the presidential administration of the Russian Federation and preparation for a possible "shameful agreement" and "betrayal of national interests."

On the Ordinary Tsarism channel, Simonyan's speech was called "defeat propaganda." “Words with a taste of betrayal and blood,” write its authors. “There is a special cauldron in hell for traitors. They are waiting for you, our dear pacifists.”

Igor Skurlatov, head of the Russian public movement Third Force, wrote : “Can Margo be sent to Karabakh to hold a referendum? Margot, your haughty tone still irritates us very much. Who are you? Popular politician? Favorite journalist? No. Know your place - a propagandist in power. And let's conduct a survey - does Margarita herself correspond to her position as one of the leading media managers of the Russian Federation, having publicly shit on the memory of many thousands of Russian fighters who gave their lives for the liberation of Little Russia?

Other commentators emphasize that the wording about “disputed territories” is an attack on the Constitution and the territorial integrity of Russia. The Tsargrad TV channel in its note referred to the opinion of a military volunteer and blogger from Kursk, Roman Alekhin. Has Simonyan changed his boss? Or payer? It not only speaks nonsense, but also betrayed its new leaders, because a referendum on the territory of Russia on the self-determination of the territories prescribed in the Basic Law, which she called “disputed”, is a dream for the strategists of the collective West, because this is a direct path to complete collapse of Russia. After all, the Crimea will become more controversial, perhaps the republics in the Caucasus, the Kaliningrad region and off and on. I wonder how much it cost to issue such or some other guarantees? — wroteHe.

The author of the telegram channel “Commissar Disappears” heard behind Simonyan’s words “the cry of our nomenklatura ‘Let us jump out’.” “I understand, but I don’t understand. Because I don’t understand another thing: how is it possible, against the backdrop of such speeches from TV and such a mood at the top, to motivate people to fight and risk their lives, if the land they are fighting for can at any moment — ap! The pants turn into elegant summer shorts! - become no longer Russian, but - "controversial"," he notes .

The author of the Moralny Compass channel, who calls himself a copywriter Yanis from Donetsk, considered the distribution of Simonyan’s video to be the work of TsIPSO , and her words were taken out of context. “If anyone did not understand, Simonyan spoke not about the territories already annexed to the Russian Federation, but about those that remain under the control of Ukraine. At some points I agree with her, but there is one caveat, he writes . “That’s when the Kiev junta (and all their pigs) is defeated, then it will make sense to hold referendums and find out who wants to become part of the Russian Federation, and who wants to remain the territory of neutral Ukraine.”

[SL Xpress 7,504]

46 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

You're thinking far too short-term. Russia has been invaded twice in the past 250 years alone, surviving by torching their own infrastructure and due to shit weather. There are no natural borders between Western Europe and Moscow to otherwise slow down another invasion.

Whatever the current political reality, this geography will not ever change, and will always be a security problem for whatever regime is in charge in Moscow.

But it works both ways. It's also a problem for Western Europe.

3 times in 300+ years. Charles XII doesn't get the recognition of Napoleon and Operation Barbarossa in the west, but he gets a whole lot more in Russia. He lost through much the same dynamic you're describing. 

Peter the Great had an incredible knack for failing upward with his military campaigns. 

[MillerEP 30,339]

 

[SL Xpress 7,504]

5 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

This is rich.  Margarita Simonyan has lost the plot and probably got a better look at all those Storm Shadows recently delivered by Wallace.

https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/07/margarita-simonyan-predlozhila-prekratit-voynu-potomu-chto-vsu-poluchat-rakety-i-budut-nanosit-udary-po-nam

That's some crazy shit right there. Thank you for posting. 

[The Dog 43,771]

Poland ready to rumble?

 

[Grade of D as in David 13,253]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Poland ready to rumble?

 

Poland is licking their chops to jump in and kick Russian ass.

I don't know who hates Russia more. Poles or Ukraine.

[Brisketexan 104,462]

Just now, Grade of D as in David said:

Poland is licking their chops to jump in and kick Russian ass.

I don't know who hates Russia more. Poles or Ukraine.

The Baltics would like a word.  Finland too.  But especially the Baltics....they fucking HATE Russia.

Here's an interesting truth: every European country that shares a border with Russia fucking HATES Russia (with the "maybe" exception of Belarus -- hard to tell, what with the Russian-backed repression of all dissent).  Every fucking one.  Remember the rule:

Russia is asshole.

[SL Xpress 7,504]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Poland ready to rumble?

 

I read it as more of a threat to places like France and Germany, if countries like Hungary and Turkiye try to slow everyone's roll. 

It's very difficult for me to see Poland sending in troops in the near term. 

And no offense to the Baltic States, but I'm not sure what in the world they could actually do. 

Honestly, Poland intervening by taking out Russian air defense and enforcing a no fly zone over Ukraine would be more impactful than sending in troops. Not sure they're capable of doing that, but that's a bigger need than Polish infantry. But all of that is fantasy talk. It's a bluff to get reluctant members of NATO to go along with some kind of substantive path to membership for Ukraine. Otherwise all the pressure is going to be on dithering and tabling discussions. 

There's a real world issue with figuring out how to let in a country to a mutual self defense organization when it's already at war, and none of the members really want to actively intervene. That was the brilliance of the Donbas separatist move by Putin/Russia in the first place. The conflict basically froze Ukraine's admittance into both the EU and NATO. But he overextended his hand, and now all bets are off. 

[The Dog 43,771]

[SmokeyTheBear 5,562]

I don't see why we can't expedite their inclusion to NATO and say, Russia you have 1 month to leave all of Ukraine (including Crimea) or else Article 5 is triggered. 

[Bevo 13,493]

13 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Ehh, it only got 3.5 stars on google.

[Bevo 13,493]

14 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

I don't see why we can't expedite their inclusion to NATO and say, Russia you have 1 month to leave all of Ukraine (including Crimea) or else Article 5 is triggered. 

You don't? No regerts? Not even a single letter?

[Rimbo 25,752]

35 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Poland ready to rumble?

 

[SL Xpress 7,504]

6 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

I don't see why we can't expedite their inclusion to NATO and say, Russia you have 1 month to leave all of Ukraine (including Crimea) or else Article 5 is triggered. 

Are you being serious, or purposefully silly? How many NATO countries want to actively send in troops to kick Russia out of there? The US certainly doesn't. 

I do agree with others that Poland and the Baltic States are probably rarin' to go, but virtually the rest of NATO has no desire to send their own troops in there. In the US, politically it would be a disaster for the president and political party that did such a thing.

I do feel alarmist about the power plant right now, particularly after what happened with the dam, but I'm not seeing the kind of rhetoric from the US and other countries I'd like to about the issue. Mostly we're still collectively dithering about whether it was Ukraine or Russia that blew it up (narrator: It was Russia). 

Anyway, that's not going to be a realistic option. Remember, one member nation can veto any new member. That's why Turkiye can keep Sweden of all places out of NATO. There's simply no way you're going to get every NATO country to agree to such a deal.