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Eastwood

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texastough

texastough 1129

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1 hour ago, Viper said:

Sounds like the Russians are learning locally. Good thing their command and control structure is still all fucked up.

 

After this is over, it will be fascinating to get macro level clarity on the drone/counterdrone piece of this conflict. I believed that over the course of the war, Ukraine would dominate both in numbers and quality of drones and also anti drone warfare. I assumed that western technology being supplied, bought, donated etc. would vastly overwhelm russian capabilities and ability to procure/manufacture more. I think Ukraine does have an advantage, but there have been a lot of lancet videos destroying ukrainian equipment, plus reports like this one, so it doesn't seem like an overwhelming advantage right now.

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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 28994

Posted
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37 minutes ago, texastough said:

After this is over, it will be fascinating to get macro level clarity on the drone/counterdrone piece of this conflict. I believed that over the course of the war, Ukraine would dominate both in numbers and quality of drones and also anti drone warfare. I assumed that western technology being supplied, bought, donated etc. would vastly overwhelm russian capabilities and ability to procure/manufacture more. I think Ukraine does have an advantage, but there have been a lot of lancet videos destroying ukrainian equipment, plus reports like this one, so it doesn't seem like an overwhelming advantage right now.

I'd argue Ukrainians don't have enough attack helicopters, close air support jets, fighter jets, air defense (gepards, iris-t, patriots), etc. to gain enough air superiority kick Russia's ass in an offensive and adequately protects it's critical infrastructure and cities. It goes back to us slowly piecemealing together things the Ukrainians need and our reluctance to "escalate."

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texastough

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I get that, but thought that Ukraine would gain such advantage in drones (both recon and armed) and counter drone technology to make up for the lack of those things you mention. Drones are relatively cheap, easier to train on, with little to no logistical tail, so they should be easy to supply in great numbers by the west. Given Russia's inability to make its own chips, plus sanctions, it seemed Ukraine's advantage would grow over time. I don't think we have great clarity at this point on the overall picture.

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 28994

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10 minutes ago, texastough said:

I get that, but thought that Ukraine would gain such advantage in drones (both recon and armed) and counter drone technology to make up for the lack of those things you mention. Drones are relatively cheap, easier to train on, with little to no logistical tail, so they should be easy to supply in great numbers by the west. Given Russia's inability to make its own chips, plus sanctions, it seemed Ukraine's advantage would grow over time. I don't think we have great clarity at this point on the overall picture.

Russia's getting a bunch of drones from Iran as well as manufacturing their own. Plenty of the Chinese drones are being bought by companies outside Russia and then exported to Russia.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89762

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Those Reuters journalists mentioned a large number of Russian dead, and a few others who are watching social media said they haven't seen this many Russian dead since earlier last year.

Russians have put out some stuff, but some of it was easily disproved by the foliage/location.

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Dahobbs

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19 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

Here is the actual article:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-soldiers-corpses-line-road-into-liberated-ukrainian-village-2023-06-14/

Quote

 

STOROZHEVE, Ukraine, June 14 (Reuters) - The road into the newly liberated Ukrainian village of Storozheve is lined with the corpses of Russian soldiers and burnt-out armoured vehicles.

The grisly scenes bear witness to the ferocity of fighting as Ukrainian troops recaptured Storozheve and several other villages in the past few days as part of a counteroffensive in southern and eastern Ukraine.

Some of the dead Russian soldiers lay on the dusty ground beside the husks of their vehicles when Reuters journalists reached the village on Wednesday. Others were crumpled in the grass and fields nearby where they died.

Inside the village, the small one-storey houses that line the road have been badly damaged by shelling, their roofs completely gone or with gaping holes.

An abandoned stroller lay overturned at the side of the road. The village was silent, its residents gone or staying out of sight.

"Three days ago we liberated the village of Storozheve. You can see for yourselves how it was achieved. You can see the destroyed hardware. Glory to Ukraine," a Ukrainian soldier who gave his name only as Artem told Reuters in Storozheve.

A photograph posted online on Monday showed Ukrainian soldiers holding up the yellow and blue Ukrainian flag in front of a damaged home in Storozheve.

The village had been occupied by Russian forces since March 2022, one month after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The soldiers said about 50 Russian soldiers were killed in a "mopping-up operation" and four were taken prisoner. Reuters was unable to verify the number of Russian casualties, although corpses were still strewn across the road and nearby fields.

Storozheve is one of a cluster of settlements near the Mokry Yali river that Ukraine says its troops have captured since their counteroffensive began.

Reuters also reached the nearby village of Neskuchne on Tuesday, providing the first independent confirmation of the Ukrainian advances since Kyiv began the counteroffensive.

 

 

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atomheartbevo

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31 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^Long but well worth the read. It did seem strange to me that Russia was "counterattacking" when technically they were supposed to be in a defensive posture. This post might explain why.

From that tweet (didn't realize Musk took the limits completely off)

Have we been conned? Serious question. After all Russia spent a huge amount of resources to construct multiple defensive lines but the evidence such as it is may be showing a different picture. Please if you enjoy my work help my reach with a boost and a RT and I will work hard to earn it. Long Ass Tweet Warning!

Pre-Counter Offensive it looked like the Russian's MLR was set back from the FLOC likely to reduce exposure to artillery, reduce enemy counter-battery options, drones, patrols and other ISR assets before the battle kicked off. Sensible thing to do, plus importantly it let Russia choose the terrain the main fight would be on. The Russians had months to site, build and prepare a series of defensive works to receive and absorb any Ukrainian attack using troops who were mostly rested and who had a chance to learn soldier skills and the terrain they would fight on.

So why fight so hard forward of the line now and throw all of that away? This question needs to be answered. I can understand harassing the AFU as it pushes forward so that when they reach your lines your first real blow hits an exhausted disorganized enemy, but we are not seeing that kind of action. The evidence so far is compelling, if not absolute. I am going to offer up 4 main points:

  1. A counterattack at Makarivka.
  2. Barrier troops gunning down retreating Russians.
  3. Incredibly high burn rate of FPV drones and other assets.
  4. Willingness to expose artillery to counter-battery fire.

At Makarivka Pro-Russian accounts are claiming the 127th MRD launched a counterattack retaking the village. This is very close to the initial start lines as far as artillery goes and brings them into range of Ukrainian guns, drones and missiles that can fight from prepared positions. Ukrainian higher command and support assets are closer and better able to exercise C3 and keep the logistics tail working. Finally, the Ukrainian penetration was not deep enough to create a real flank to hit with enough impact to be operationally important. The attack makes no sense to me.

Ditto the barrier troops gunning down their fellow soldiers. I can totally get leaving blocking forces forward of the MLR to break up the Ukrainian attack with ambushes and pre-sited artillery to wreck their timetable and gain your own side intelligence about enemy movements, equipment and other items we use to cover with SALUTE reports. But, those troops job is to delay, at some point you have to let them fall back. The Japanese had suicide troops; these Russians are not them. Gunning them down only encourages surrender. The only purpose of barrier troops is to keep men in the line where the MLR is. If the barrier troops are forward, then so is the main effort.

I think this supposition is supported by the incredibly high burn rate of FPV drones, loitering munitions, artillery shells and the early and heavy application of tactical air power. This has killed and injured a lot of Ukrainians and damaged or destroyed a lot of equipment, but it hasn't caught any of them in a sack where things like enfilade fires can make bad situations absolutely hellish. It also means that once again, Ukrainian assets that are much better at deep precision fires can conduct artillery missions with much more effectiveness. I have no doubt Ukrainian counter-battery fires are wrecking Russian artillery. As soon as a Russian gun starts firing its death clock starts ticking.

Yet had they permitted the Ukrainians to get deeper, they would be moment when Ukraine would self-degrade her own counter battery ability as the fight moved out of range and radars and guns had to move. Fighting close to the start lines lets Ukraine keep her assets in the fight.

Given those four assumptions, the next question is why? Why fight forward instead of using the advantages that the prepared defenses would lend you? I have no doubt that trenches got dug, at least some obstacles were emplaced, and minefields laid but the single most important factor about a defense in depth is manpower.

By the end of WWI the trench scheme was perfected. The forward line was to break up the enemy attack and was only lightly held. The 2nd line was where you really wanted to hold, and the 3rd is where you had local reserves that could move quickly to reenforce threatened sectors and launch local counter attacks. Behind them at some distance safe from artillery would be your operational reserves that would only be committed once you were sure you knew where the enemy's major effort was.

This basic layout has not changed since 1918 because it more or less works. At Kursk the Soviets were able to use these successive lines to attrit the Germans and then at places like Prokhorovka. The Germans did it to the Soviets as well like Zhukov's defeat during Operation Mars. Yet this style of fighting needs bodies. Look at the Battle of the Seelow Heights. Heinrici had a great defensive scheme but lacked the troops and reserves to really make it stick. He punched the Soviets in the nose but could not save Berlin.

Given the size of the frontage, I think Russia is facing a manpower crisis. So let's do some math. Russia has a maximum of 800k troops in Ukraine. She had 300,000k active-duty troops before the war. 4-50k LNR/DNR troops, 40k Wagner, a mobilization of 300k and two other induction cycles for about another 300k as well as dribs and drabs from other PMC's. Thats just about a million men. Past reports say she had committed 90% of her ground combat power to Ukraine so 900k before losses.

Now we have to consider those losses. Ukraine is claiming that number is reduced by 217k permanent losses, the US by 75k. Plus an unknown number of wounded say a traditional 3:1 ratio. If we assume half the wounded can return, but half have to be invalided out that moves the numbers up to 300k and 115k respectively.

That only leaves between 6-800k troops for the entire area. Out of that number have to come all the air defense, railway and service troops, the troops guarding Crimea, being sent to Bilhorod, used as barrier troops etc. Every cook, clerk and mechanic is one less rifleman or tanker at the front.

The Russian Tooth-To-Tail ratio (T3R) is likely weighted more towards combat than NATO but is still going to be at least 1.5:1. That reduces Russia's maximum number of troops that can fight to between 220-310K or so. Thats not very man men given the length of the front.

Thats even before we considered known concentrations like Bakhmut, Kremina, Enerhodor etc. Take out those concentrations, and whatever is left is all Russia has to man her lines and serve as local and operational reserves. I don't think that number is big enough to do it. I think Russia is fighting forward to try and shock the Ukrainians into making bad assumptions about Russian strength. "If we can beat them early, they will stop and regroup" type of thinking.

I think Russia wants to fight a series of mobile battles forward where her smaller operational reserves can move around to where they are needed to act as fire brigades. This is a losing strategy. But it may be the only option Russia has. There is one final factor that may be driving this.

@oryxspioenkop has documented over 2k Russian tank losses and over 10k total pieces of significant military equipment from IFVs to guns to trucks lost so far. It is entirely possible that Russia lacks the equipment to create enough local and operational armored reserves that can afford to wait for Ukraine to come to them.

Scarcity itself might be forcing Russia to go looking for Ukrainian armor to engage. I think if Ukraine keeps on delivering blows the Russian facade will crack. I think it lacks the resources to weather the blows and when the Ukrainians get to those prepared lines, they will find them nearly devoid of troops.

My math is imperfect, but it doesn't lie. The numbers are just not there to be strong everywhere. The flipside does not hold true for Ukraine. She has 1.2-1.3 million citizens under arms. Some will be service troops, doing rear area security, guarding against Belarussian perfidy etc. but of the troops she has for combat, she can concentrate them and act where she wants to. She has the ability to achieve overwhelming local and operational superiority and has the added benefit of interior lines so shifting reserves is much easier for her.

Her biggest risk is sustainment. This is where we come in as #NAFO #Fellas... Tomorrow starts the effort to canvas all 535 members of Congress. I will be calling @JohnBoozman , @SenTomCotton, and @RepFrenchHill telling them to send more, better and now and to push@POTUS to declare that #RussiaIsATerroristState. I encourage all US based Fellas to join me by contacting your own leaders and for international Fellas to keep up the pressure on your own governments. By the way, when you contact them, be respectful and also remind them that your vote follows your money and that you donate to Ukrainian causes. Today in the midst of all the death going around I felt lead to help save some small lives, the innocent victims of war.

Not a bad idea to contact your Congressional reps/Senators.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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JesusSweatDuck

JesusSweatDuck 17784

Posted
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1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

 

^Long but well worth the read. It did seem strange to me that Russia was "counterattacking" when technically they were supposed to be in a defensive posture. This post might explain why.

Just looking at some of the "trenches" in the videos being release tell me these defensive lines were not what they were reported to be.  Some of those are barely deep enough to hide a person who is laying down, let alone someone standing up.  They look haphazardly dug, and barely fortified. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89762

Posted
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6 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Just looking at some of the "trenches" in the videos being release tell me these defensive lines were not what they were reported to be.  Some of those are barely deep enough to hide a person who is laying down, let alone someone standing up.  They look haphazardly dug, and barely fortified. 

Almost as if somebody was collecting money/resources to dig a 5-foot deep, 2 or 3-foot or so wide trench for a long ways, that would take a lot of time and fuel, and instead took a backhoe and drove along scooping out trenches a couple of feet deep and maybe the width of the bucket, and doing it as quickly as they could.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89762

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Meanwhile, one of the top Chechen warlords Apti Allaudinov states on his Telegram that all Akhmat units located in Mar'inka are being withdrawn and transferred to the area of the incident with Adam Delimkhanov. Oddly, he uses a lot of emojis while promising to find Delimkhanov regardless of the cost. This is a highly unusual style and the statement itself is confusing. Russian terrorist under the call sign "13th" says that "Mar'inka is f*cked" [В Марьинке творитя какой-то пиздец". Unclear if these messages are related in any way.

 

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jdhorn92

jdhorn92 1552

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Almost as if somebody was collecting money/resources to dig a 5-foot deep, 2 or 3-foot or so wide trench for a long ways, that would take a lot of time and fuel, and instead took a backhoe and drove along scooping out trenches a couple of feet deep and maybe the width of the bucket, and doing it as quickly as they could.

Sure apprears that way.  And thank you for posting the tweet so I didnt have to go to twitter.  Very good read. 

I think the answer is yes , we've been led to believe the defensive line was much stronger than its showing to be.  What we know about RU is their military is lazy, largely disinterested and apathetic.  Sure there are holdouts, but overall they are wilting under fire and but for the sheer size of the landmass that needs to be retaken, its just a matter of time.  RU looks to be holding out for the long game and still shelling civilians as their fastball.  Godspeed to the UKR that they can keep the resolve up

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89762

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2 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

This is kinda big.  What will Wagner do? 

Probably be integrated fully into the Russian military - Putin is putting the final nail in that coffin, but it's always been hanging over Wagner that technically they were an illegal organization in Russia (Russia has laws against PMCs or whatever). I need to go back and look at whether this came down before or after Wagner kidnapped and tortured the Russian Army Lt. Col, but I bet it was going to happen either way.

As for Prigozhin...he's in my dead pool.

And I could see them putting a shoot-to-kill order out on any Wagner who don't sign.

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texastough

texastough 1129

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1 hour ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Just looking at some of the "trenches" in the videos being release tell me these defensive lines were not what they were reported to be.  Some of those are barely deep enough to hide a person who is laying down, let alone someone standing up.  They look haphazardly dug, and barely fortified. 

Ukraine has not reached the main defensive lines yet, the videos are showing foxholes on the front line. Read the long tweet you quoted.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89762

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A perspective on those SPGs Russia lost in that one field.  Russia can't easily regenerate those - the very things that made them cheap/easy to produce are going to haunt them - they use T-72 engines and T-80 running gear, and both of those will be focused on getting tanks produced or back in service.

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