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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 11077

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

So, one thing that confuses me: where is Wagner getting a supply line to make any sort of stand outside of a couple hours? Is the idea to take Rostov and use that to resupply for a run at Moscow? 

I have my doubts that Wagner is in Russia right now 

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Mantis Toboggan, MD

Mantis Toboggan, MD 1520

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So, one thing that confuses me: where is Wagner getting a supply line to make any sort of stand outside of a couple hours? Is the idea to take Rostov and use that to resupply for a run at Moscow? 

If Russians have a strength, it is planning for logistics. I’m sure there is a great plan in place.
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90711

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40 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

On the one hand, I'd be surprised if they are in Russia in any numbers, but then, they have a working knowledge of Russian forces and their locations, and we saw what a could of the "Free Russia" groups were able to do, slipping deep into Russia and then getting out. Prigozhin could easily have intel showing most Russian troop deployments and where the weaker areas are.

I can honestly see the Russian Army rank-and-file, including junior officers, wanting to stay out of this.  Many of them are conscripts and want nothing to do with this shit as it is.  The NCOs and junior officers, I'm not going to say they are pro-Prigozhin, but at the same time, Prigozhin made a lot of trips to the frontlines and spent a lot of time there, and he was willing to highlight how many of his men were being killed.  Shoigu, Gerasimov, etc., are not visiting the front lines, and the Russian Army is infamous for fucking over families and covering up the deaths of its soldiers.

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KYHorn

KYHorn 17690

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The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that Elements of the 35th and 36th Marine Brigades of the Ukrainian Naval Infantry are taking advantage of the “Disorganization caused by Prigozhin” and are currently attempting to Breakthrough the Frontline near Bakhmut; Ukrainian Sources are claiming that multiple Streets in the Western District of the City have been Captured so far. 

 

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dimyh

dimyh 1890

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1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

I gotta admit, the level of layers necessary and the sheer amount of people who would have to keep their mouth shut for this to succeed as a staged event makes it unbelievable for me. 

As in, literally, I don’t believe it. 

I find it way more likely this is the inevitable result of poor communication (as in practically zero) among all interested parties. Everyone outside the inner circle literally communicates with Putin by uploading videos to the internet. Putin makes sure he deincentivizes anyone bring him bad news, insists he’s better informed than they are, with the implicit threat of being tortured and killed if they don’t see reality correctly. 

The MOD has no interest in communicating directly with Prighozin. Prighozin uses humiliation and condescension to try to get his way with Shiogu and the MOD. A lot of the actions by all parties have been performed in a vacuum of specific and instructions. The very fact Putin has done nothing has been interpreted by all sides in varying ways. 

I mean, how many times have you guys seen confrontations taken to absurd levels by the mere fact the different sides don’t even communicate with each other any more - or certainly not effectively - and so everyone assumes the worst intent and behavior of the other side, and repercussions are escalated as preemptive strikes? I find it to be common place. Way more common place than tens of thousands of people pretending like a conflict exists when it really doesn’t, up to and including killing folks on either side of it. 

I’ll have to give a big tip of the hat to Ivan if that’s what they’ve managed to pull off, but I don’t think there’s any real chance of it. 

 

So marriage counseling could have prevented all of this?

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 27080

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20 minutes ago, The Dog said:

!!!!!

 

stated this earlier. It would be what I would be watching. 

 

Concerning supplies. Wagner has external access to lots of cash, and well, we all know about the Russian procurement system. 

Plus you can always take supplies if you know where the depots are. 

image.png.52d39537e13fe7ae0f2fdc97817b456b.png

 

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301

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57 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Here's my theory:

Convicted criminal and opportunist who makes connections with Putin while Putin is on his way up. Putin likes him and sees him as useful. Makes him a billionaire, places him in his inner circle. At some point Prighozin approaches Putin with the idea of starting up a private army, and how they could do the dirty work around the world that would be productive for Russia without the Russian military having to get its hands dirty. A Russian equivalent to Blackwater, only even more active and tied to the state. 

Wagner proves to be exceptionally useful in both Africa and Syria. They get shit done. The operation is competently run. They spend a lot of money on their personnel, making sure they're equipped extremely well. There's an esprit de corps among members that they're the best of the best. They're valued for their ruthlessness. The best soldiers in the Russian army often sign up with Wagner for the higher pay and the feeling of being with the best.

In the meantime Wagner becomes a major source of revenue and power for Prighozin. Putin values him as an asset outside the normal chain of command who is loyal to him. Other members of the inner circle are way of Prigozhin but feel helpless to do anything about it with him having Putin's personal blessing. Also, they see the value in what his organization brings - just wary of the risks but no way to communicate those to Putin in a way that makes sense.

Putin decides to invade Ukraine. The swift military action planned for goes to complete shit. The airborne units are left to be massacred after taking over the Antonov airport. The regular forces can't get their shit together, are bogged down by terrain, horrible logistics, and the internal corruption that pervades the regular army. Hence the need for something like Wagner in the first place.

Wagner troops in general create better results where ever they are deployed compared to the regular army. Again, they're better equipped, better trained, better morale. They're a private version of the most elite VDV units. 

The offensive bogs down. Prighozin is out of his mind with the incompetency of the Russian army, and being forced to work alongside these fools. They're lazy, stupid, have no sense of professionalism, and everyone is out to save their own skin. He somehow convinces Putin, whether directly or through a third party, to put Wagner in charge of an offensive and let him show how to effectively carry one out. The offensive chosen was in the direction of Bakhmut. 

As part of this effort he's given permission to recruit convicts out of the penal system to be used as meat. Prighozin is very charismatic, and as a former prisoner himself, he knows how to speak to these people in a compelling way. He signs up tens of thousands to supplement his forces.

Lacking armor and sufficient artillery under their direct control, Wagner develops the strategy of sending in convicts in waves of 5 or 6 at a time, ferreting out the placement of Ukrainian defenses and weak points. After either the convicts secure a point, or the defense is softened up sufficiently, they then send in the regular Wagner shock troops. This is done over and over relentlessly, in Soledar and then in Bakhmut itself. Given that this is the only spot along the entire front where any progress is being made whatsoever, it's seen as a success. 

At some point Prighozin is cut off from access to Putin. I have no idea when it occurs, but it obviously occurs. Given Russian politics and Prighozin's lack of a power base outside of Putin and Wagner, he chooses to go all in. Backing down at this point would mean losing everything to the long knives in Putin's inner circle. I don't know that he has a long term plan per se, other than like Baelish opined, chaos is a ladder. I can't imagine he saw himself as displacing Putin directly, but I certainly feel like he saw himself as a potential replacement for Putin, depending on how things worked out. 

Bakhmut is taken over, or at least the rubble of the town is taken over. Prighozin declares victory and begins to pull his forces out. Shiogu sees Prighozin's limited utility at an end, and makes a move to eliminate Wagner as a separate source of power. I'm assuming with Putin's blessing. Who knows, though. Maybe everyone is acting in a vacuum. 

Prighozin sees this as an existential threat in more ways than one. He escalates his rhetoric and his actions, but eventually sees no other course of action than to declare war on the Russian military command. My guess is it's probably sold to Wagner fighters as an act of righteous rebellion, Potemkin style. 

I don't care how much ammunition or other supplies they've stashed away, it won't be enough. There will have to be some way of dealing with air power, of refueling, replacing ammo stocks, and feeding the troops. This won't be a sustained activity. Even if it's true fighter pilots refused to fire on them (which I don't believe) eventually they'll find fighter pilots who will. 

I do not believe this was the end goal at virtually any point along the timeline. I believe Prighozin felt like eventually Putin would step in in his favor, because his organization is the only one getting anything done, and they still provide a lot of value in Africa in the short term, and around the world in whatever hotspots arise in the long term. But at the end of the day Prighozin has had the rug pulled out from under him. Better to go out with guns blazing than meekly submit to a kangaroo court and a bullet in the brain. 

 

 

I made it through that.

I don’t think Prigozhin is doing this without assurances from certain folks in MoD that they many will join on his side.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

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2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Fixin' tah go to bed.  I'll be up by 7 am cst.  What kinda shenanigans are gonna happen between now and then? 

Between now and then I fully expect Musk will launch himself at the sun, along with an octagon, and him and Zuckerberg will throw down will in the Sun's corona.

Xi is going to invade Laos and be roundly defeated.  

King Charles will become mired in a scandal involving sex with a farm animal.  

 

It's been a strange week.  

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19460

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Imagine your "retirement party" theme being an order for a terroristic meltdown of a nuclear power plant that will sweep into NATO causing your successor and/or Wagner to have to fight the planet while you get hung in Red Square. 

I was just gonna suggest pizza.  Maybe empanadas?  

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15735

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1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

So, one thing that confuses me: where is Wagner getting a supply line to make any sort of stand outside of a couple hours? Is the idea to take Rostov and use that to resupply for a run at Moscow? 

It’s the model used by Caesar and the XIII Legion. With a small force, you can resupply off local sources and move so quickly that you don’t give your adversary time to organize.

They really could be in Moscow in two days if the MOD can’t organize a defense. And what have we seen from the Russian Army that would give anyone any confidence that it could organize a defense in 48 hours?

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