Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[956 Worldwide 34705]

@Eastwood has a good post. I just want to add as someone who in recent years has become more of a Central Europe guy with a necessary interest in Russia— we talk about the “wall falling” as shorthand for the collapse of Soviet Empire in Europe. But it’s more appropriate to use the active voice and talk about how Poles, Czechs, Slovaks, Romanians, Hungarians, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians and others tore down the Iron Curtain and later the USSR. Nations and individuals took control of their destiny. Some have made better and some worse choices but at the end of the 20th century— they made their own choices. 
 

And that’s missing in Russia now. 

[Wade 464]

56 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

We got excited because we thought that everything was going to unravel right in front of us in a 48 hour period. It’s understandable. We were on the verge of seeing what would be the greatest geopolitical event since the fall of the Berlin Wall and maybe we still did. It took two whole years from the Wall going down to the dissolving of the Soviet Union.

 The Wall falling was the breaking away of the most visible non-nuclear symbol of Soviet power in the European front. Russia’s most powerful and seasoned troops withdrawing from the newest Russian/European conflict border, Ukraine, turning their guns east, and holding the Kremlin hostage to meet demands was our modern day equivalent. People are openly wondering “how could Prog possibly believe this is over and he is safe” but the same could be asked of Putin’s mindset. Both sides of that conflict are irreparably damaged. Imagine how many oligarchs just saw their fortunes flash before their eyes. Imagine how much chatter about Putin’s weakness has been picked up by the FSB. 

May we live in interesting times, indeed. 

I recall way back in Geopolitics class (one of my favorites), the professor said he could not see the Berlin Wall ever coming down, that the Soviets would never allow it.  Literally one year later it was down.  Just brought up to say that times change quickly.

[troph 24783]

50 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

We weren't. It was known something was up i back in June 

There were reports that while the US knew something was up and was trying to understand what it meant - they did not know he was going to roll toward Moscow.  The last few days were not know as they happened.

[Brisketexan 105093]

Strike where?

I’m presuming the All Valley Karate tourney, where they’ll strike fast, strike hard, no mercy.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

It’s pretty wild seeing the entire internet/world try to make sense of what just happened and predict what’s going to happen.

Everybody is just scratching their heads right now.

[cactusflinthead 27598]

1 minute ago, troph said:

There were reports that while the US knew something was up and was trying to understand what it meant - they did not know he was going to roll toward Moscow.  The last few days were not know as they happened.

I think Hertling did well to call Pirogue an unbound electron. When he made his move there's no telling where he was going. We knew he was gonna do something but how it was going to go was anyone's guess.

[SquishMitten 10403]

23 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

That last tweet… Pringles took a page straight out of Putin’s playbook. Make threats until the other side capitulates. It worked. So he will do it again the first second he has an issue. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by SquishMitten

[MissingInAction 25032]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Strike where?

Your mom.

[troph 24783]

1 minute ago, cactusflinthead said:

I think Hertling did well to call Pirogue an unbound electron. When he made his move there's no telling where he was going. We knew he was gonna do something but how it was going to go was anyone's guess.

I agree. My point wasn’t a criticism - we honestly did not know when what and where we only knew something.  It supports the theory that he was backed into a corner or treason to keep power or sign the contract and give up power so with the power he had he made an erratic play and it happened with no one really knowing what was happening.  If there was a master plan we would likely have known about it. That’s all I was saying.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 minute ago, SquishMitten said:

That last tweet… Pringles took a page straight out of Purim’s playbook. Make threats until the other side capitulates. It worked. So he will do it again the first second he has an issue. 

It seems to me that Putin has to kill Prigo. The dude just pantsed Putin in front of the world.

If he doesn’t kill him really quickly it would seem to be a sign that Putin has no power anymore.

[tx ind 7011]

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

I think Ukraine missed a great opportunity to strike during the confusion and chaos.

When the enemy is making a false movement we must take good care not to interrupt him

[Rimbo 25919]

8 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Your mom.

Some possible outcomes of yesterday's events:  

1. In Wagner PMC, a split has reportedly started between those who felt used and those who remained loyal to Prigozhin after the failed rebellion. 

2. Combat pilots reportedly quit Wagner PMC due to their disagreement with the way planes and helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were destroyed yesterday. 

3. A vertical of power has collapsed.  No one in Russia can feel safe anymore. Neither officials, nor oligarchs, nor FSB officers who used to think they were the rulers of life. Putin stopped holding a monopoly on violence in Russia yesterday.  It was proven that factions with more weapons and determination decide everything.  

4. Russia might be facing a bloody war, not a civil war, but a war of clans, armed groups and private armies: Chechens, Prigozhin's supporters, armed mercenaries, who will separate from Prigozhin or other PMCs and be hired by local clans for protection from invading outsiders.  All large business and oligarchs will probably create (if they haven't already) private armies, as Gazprom has already done to protect itself.  Conflicts and redistribution of property will be resolved by force. It will be the new 90s but far worse - Resembling the Mad Max style and genre of an anti-utopia action movie. 

5. The Russian army, it seems, has de facto ceased to exist as a united structure. Soldiers and officers sitting in trenches in the massacre unleashed by Putin, probably finally realized yesterday the utter pointlessness of the war against Ukraine, against the background of the fact that a group of criminals in the rear can pass 600km in a day, sweeping away everything in their path and then be amnestied after killing pilots and civilians.  

6. Ukraine is a few steps closer to fully restoring its territorial integrity, including Crimea. 

7. What a pity that this circus did not end with the self-destruction of Putin's regime and Prigozhin faction.  But I believe it will happen again with even larger scale!

[Dbeasy 15044]

8 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

It seems to me that Putin has to kill Prigo. The dude just pantsed Putin in front of the world.

If he doesn’t kill him really quickly it would seem to be a sign that Putin has no power anymore.

IMO he will be poisoned within a month. 

[Rimbo 25919]

In the replies to that ☝️ someone pointed out that Prizzguzzle has a family, wife, son and daughter.

1, x, 2

 

[ABSR 5309]

19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I’m presuming the All Valley Karate tourney, where they’ll strike fast, strike hard, no mercy.

Sweep the legsky! 

[Nicole44 22059]

20 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

It’s pretty wild seeing the entire internet/world try to make sense of what just happened and predict what’s going to happen.

Everybody is just scratching their heads right now.

If any of this helps Ukraine and ends the war I am all for it. I can’t fathom any real change happening for Russia. The people have lived looking into a funhouse mirror for generations. The ones that do get it are exiled or poisoned or arrested or killed. Damn. If any of this actually harms Putin and hastens his demise then he’s earned it. There are a multitude of theories I am considering about what happened but if it helps Ukraine great…hard to predict anything at this point. But I was thinking how I was feeling about Putin yesterday and the below came to mind. Hope he gets all he deserves. 

[G650 14249]

This is a very astute take.

 

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

20 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Some possible outcomes of yesterday's events:  

1. In Wagner PMC, a split has reportedly started between those who felt used and those who remained loyal to Prigozhin after the failed rebellion. 

2. Combat pilots reportedly quit Wagner PMC due to their disagreement with the way planes and helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were destroyed yesterday. 

3. A vertical of power has collapsed.  No one in Russia can feel safe anymore. Neither officials, nor oligarchs, nor FSB officers who used to think they were the rulers of life. Putin stopped holding a monopoly on violence in Russia yesterday.  It was proven that factions with more weapons and determination decide everything.  

4. Russia might be facing a bloody war, not a civil war, but a war of clans, armed groups and private armies: Chechens, Prigozhin's supporters, armed mercenaries, who will separate from Prigozhin or other PMCs and be hired by local clans for protection from invading outsiders.  All large business and oligarchs will probably create (if they haven't already) private armies, as Gazprom has already done to protect itself.  Conflicts and redistribution of property will be resolved by force. It will be the new 90s but far worse - Resembling the Mad Max style and genre of an anti-utopia action movie. 

5. The Russian army, it seems, has de facto ceased to exist as a united structure. Soldiers and officers sitting in trenches in the massacre unleashed by Putin, probably finally realized yesterday the utter pointlessness of the war against Ukraine, against the background of the fact that a group of criminals in the rear can pass 600km in a day, sweeping away everything in their path and then be amnestied after killing pilots and civilians.  

6. Ukraine is a few steps closer to fully restoring its territorial integrity, including Crimea. 

7. What a pity that this circus did not end with the self-destruction of Putin's regime and Prigozhin faction.  But I believe it will happen again with even larger scale!

I think #5 above is most striking. Faced with an invading army of mercenaries, Putin’s army did absolutely nothing.

In other words, Putin doesn’t have an army at this point. But he’s fighting a war on foreign soil.

I don’t know what happens next, but I feel like whatever happens is going to happen quickly.

I can’t even imagine what’s happening behind the scenes in western intelligence briefings.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

3 minutes ago, G650 said:

This is a very astute take.

 

 

I don’t agree with her belief that Putin “can manage with his own forces”.

How so? They’ve proven completely incompetent in Ukraine, but even more so in Russia. They did nothing as an invading force marched through Russia.

How does he manage a force that has proven unable to win a war abroad and unwilling to protect him at home? 

[troph 24783]

9 minutes ago, G650 said:

This is a very astute take.

 

 

I think this - or some close version of it - is becoming the consensus. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by troph

[G650 14249]

2 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

They did nothing as an invading force marched through Russia.

I'd recommend asking yourself why. People are leaning way too hard into the army just got out of the way on their own volition angle.

 

Neither scenario is good for Putin, and he is ultimately wounded by this, but what happened is much better for him than a bloody battle in the middle of Russia.

[troph 24783]

5 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I don’t agree with her belief that Putin “can manage with his own forces”.

How so? They’ve proven completely incompetent in Ukraine, but even more so in Russia. They did nothing as an invading force marched through Russia.

How does he manage a force that has proven unable to win a war abroad and unwilling to protect him at home? 

 

1 minute ago, G650 said:

I'd recommend asking yourself why. People are leaning way too hard into the army just got out of the way on their own volition angle.

 

Neither scenario is good for Putin, and he is ultimately wounded by this, but what happened is much better for him than a bloody battle in the middle of Russia.

Her take wasn’t that Putin has the forces but that Putin thinks he does. And in Moscow he probably does. Her primary point was Prigozhin did what he could and found an off ramp after getting a little too deep into it and farther than he thought he would.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Just now, G650 said:

I'd recommend asking yourself why. People are leaning way too hard into the army just got out of the way on their own volition angle.

 

Neither scenario is good for Putin, and he is ultimately wounded by this, but what happened is much better for him than a bloody battle in the middle of Russia.

I have. I don’t believe they were given orders to stand down. They wouldn’t have setup military check points armed with troops and heavy tanks and they certainly wouldn’t have ordered jets and choppers to bomb their caravan.

I read an article earlier that quoted a Russian army dude that basically said “no one wanted to put up a resistance and die for what is ultimately a power play between billionaires.”

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Can’t edit but wanted to add I actually think what happened (a mercenary army taking his military hub and being treated as heroes by the local citizenry) is 100x worse than his army annihilating the mercenaries the second they turned towards Russia.

Edited June 25, 2023 by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

[G650 14249]

4 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

 I don’t believe they were given orders to stand down.

 

I don't either. My guess is they were given very little orders at all, purposefully.

 

If you understand the bigger context of how Putin exacerbated the already factional natural of the Russian state, it's much easier to see how he purposefully runs it with a vacuum of information.

 

I'm sure 40 years from now we will have a pretty good understanding of the whole story, till then it's mostly speculation. But if anyone thinks Putin was desparately telling the army to shoot these guys and they were refusing, I really don't know what to tell you.

[Deej 76758]

9 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

After this debacle of an invasion my biggest fear is that Russia actually finds someone competent. 

So someone from outside of Russia?

[immamac 42839]

2 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

I don't either. My guess is they were given very little orders at all, purposefully.

 

If you understand the bigger context of how Putin exacerbated the already factional natural of the Russian state, it's much easier to see how he purposefully runs it with a vacuum of information.

 

I'm sure 40 years from now we will have a pretty good understanding of the whole story, till then it's mostly speculation. But if anyone thinks Putin was desparately telling the army to shoot these guys and they were refusing, I really don't know what to tell you.

You think he only kind of told the army to shoot them? You do realize they did scramble helicopters and jets. They shot them down. The rest of the military straight up just surrendered. 

[G650 14249]

I am not even sure how to respond to that, which is why I tend to steer clear of this thread.

[South Austin 52462]

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

Your mom.

They’re gonna need a bigger tank.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

16 minutes ago, G650 said:

But if anyone thinks Putin was desparately telling the army to shoot these guys and they were refusing, I really don't know what to tell you.

That scenario does seem completely implausible if you assume Putin is firmly in control. Do you think Putin is firmly in control?

[PTINS 3467]

I'm calling this on myself ...

 

Came in last night, 20+ pages behind here, and haven't looked at Titan since Friday night. 

This year, I took the steering wheel on our Family Reunion, a celebration of a Land Grant family from the Crown of Spain in the 1750's.  Yesterday, the 2023 Edition, 300+ relatives, 20 briskets & 150 lbs of Elgin Sausage.  Nailed it, with the guidance and effort of a lot of people. Happy for my 93 year old mother, and her siblings and cousins.

Proud of our long history of Service & Family.

For me, Volodymyr Zelensky has surpassed Winston Churchill as my favorite human in history; for the way he led us, not just the US us, but the entire free world us, by standing up to aggression and fighting, against the odds. He is by no means the first, but damn if his 'nads don't get bigger every time you see him.

 

 

23 hours ago, G650 said:

Yes and I think that is the biggest event anyone alive has seen. Maybe biggest all time, it affected so many more people than anything from antiquity.

Agree 100%. This board know's it. The world will realize it in the months ands years to come.  The ripples will reach far and wide, and for a long time.

23 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

We toppled a Russian regime, established a new ally in a key region of the world with only $100B and without firing a shot.

Biden's place in history is secure.

Gotta give Ol' Joe President Biden a ton of credit.  He showed his Leadership of the Free World by herding a bunch of misguided cats (Dem's & Rep's) and got them to agree to turn the ship in the right direction. Starting with simply sharing information with everybody, allowing each of them to make their own judgements about right and wrong.  Who woulda thunk that being open and honest might work?

“Thank you for coming,” - Zelensky 

“More importantly, how are the children?” - Biden 

The humanity of Joe Biden, resonates with every decent man, woman & child in the world.

On 6/24/2023 at 11:34 AM, South Austin said:

With the Putin regime possibly crumbling and the hilarity of rich dumb fucks imploding in the middle of the ocean, this is one of the best off-season weeks ever.

Witnessing the compilation of karma and Darwinism and Fuck Around & Find Out displayed by Russia and Titan, and the Surly catalyst of unharnessing the collective knowledge, understanding, insight and humor of the many contributors, is the most rewarding and enjoyable reading of my not so young life.  Well done.

TLDR

My Grandmother's family, one of 8 families at the reunion. Mom w/ the long white hair in the middle.

 

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Kind of a weird thread to blog about your family reunion.

[G650 14249]

6 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

That scenario does seem completely implausible if you assume Putin is firmly in control. Do you think Putin is firmly in control?

Firmly in control of what, Russia? Remains to be seen. Never really has been to date.

 

In control of the army to quash Prigozhin like a bug on command? Yes, there's no doubt. It's a question of how big of a mess to clean up.

[WhatTheBuck 28776]

1 hour ago, SquishMitten said:

That last tweet… Pringles took a page straight out of Purim’s playbook. Make threats until the other side capitulates. It worked. So he will do it again the first second he has an issue. 

With what army?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Just now, G650 said:

In control of the army to quash Prigozhin like a bug on command? Yes, there's no doubt. It's a question of how big of a mess to clean up.

What an odd take given what we just witnessed. I suppose this is where I tell you I’m not sure what to tell you.

He has a history of putting down insurrections with as much blood as possible. Bloody messes is kind of his thing.

We’ll have to agree to disagree here.

[G650 14249]

5 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

We’ll have to agree to disagree here.

Fair enough.

[berlinerbaer 677]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

IMO he will be poisoned within a month. 

So not only has Putin invited more usurpers with his indecisiveness, but then they will be sure not to take the deal.

[WhatTheBuck 28776]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

It seems to me that Putin has to kill Prigo. The dude just pantsed Putin in front of the world.

If he doesn’t kill him really quickly it would seem to be a sign that Putin has no power anymore.

Putin’s in a tough situation. Prigozhin is very popular, apparently with the people as well as his troops. Maybe Putin wanted to kill him but Prigozhin was surrounded by supporters and loyal troops and Putin couldn’t get close to him. Maybe Putin couldn’t find anyone to carry out the order. What would it do to the morale of the troops fighting in Ukraine if Putin had him eliminated?

The two have history and Prigozhin never directly criticized Putin, just his generals. We don’t know what’s going to happen with Shoigu and Gerasimov yet. Maybe Putin thinks Prigozhin still has some value to him. Maybe he’s taking away his army and keeping him close in Belarus where he can keep an eye on him while he plots his next move. Maybe he hasn’t decided Prigozhin’s fate yet and wants to see if he’s truly loyal. Maybe he’s just biding his time until he can get assets in place for Prigozhin to have an “accident.”

I think we’ll know more in the near future as we learn who’s falling out of windows or dying from unforeseen illnesses. Putin appears vulnerable so we have to assume he’ll do something to consolidate his power. Regardless of what happens with Prigozhin I think it’s safe to assume other heads are going to roll and soon. 

[SquishMitten 10403]

23 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

With what army?

I made that post before I saw reporting that Wagner may actually get dissolved, or at least reorganized in some way. If he remains in control of some portion of it, then my point stands. Otherwise, I’m entirely wrong with regard to Pickles. Regardless, it stands for the next guy who can muster 20k troops and equipment. 

[Gatorubet 30194]

33 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Kind of a weird thread to blog about your family reunion.

it appears that there are enough of them to take Moscow. 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

 

[ChiTownDoc 21148]

2 hours ago, Rimbo said:

 

I was only half joking when I said the Russians milling about in the streets, as tactical units set up, was because being slaughtered in the streets is something they may see as a best case scenario.  

Worldwide knows way more than I do about Eastern Europe but I have been amazed at the fight the Ukrainians have had.  Like this triggered something deep because I thought the Ukrainians were just like the Russians - fairly apathetic.  

I say this having a wife from Slovakia and seeing their general views around Russia and their own lives there in general.  Anyone with hope or ambition…leaves.  

[WhatTheBuck 28776]

1 hour ago, G650 said:

I'd recommend asking yourself why. People are leaning way too hard into the army just got out of the way on their own volition angle.

 

Neither scenario is good for Putin, and he is ultimately wounded by this, but what happened is much better for him than a bloody battle in the middle of Russia.

What combat ready army was there in that part of the country? Weren’t they all in Crimea and eastern Ukraine? It’s not like they had to have forces there to guard against a large scale Ukrainian invasion. A Russian army marched into a lightly defended part of Russia and was talked down before they ever reached Moscow. We don’t know what would’ve happened if they’d ever reached the capital. Maybe they would’ve been wiped out. I’m not sure what we can read into the fact that little force was used against them when their invasion was stopped with little force apparently necessary to stop them. 

[Rimbo 25919]

4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I was only half joking when I said the Russians milling about in the streets, as tactical units set up, was because being slaughtered in the streets is something they may see as a best case scenario.  

Worldwide knows way more than I do about Eastern Europe but I have been amazed at the fight the Ukrainians have had.  Like this triggered something deep because I thought the Ukrainians were just like the Russians - fairly apathetic.  

I say this having a wife from Slovakia and seeing their general views around Russia and their own lives there in general.  Anyone with hope or ambition…leaves.  

This is something my wife doesn't quite grasp as an immigrant from one of them authoritarian countries: It's amazing how participation in the process gives people a stake in what's going on. A democratic regime's army will always outfight an authoritarian regime's army. People may pretend they don't care... up until the point that they do.

These Russians... why should they care which evil despot steals from them? Their lot doesn't change, either way.

[troph 24783]

44 minutes ago, G650 said:

Firmly in control of what, Russia? Remains to be seen. Never really has been to date.

 

In control of the army to quash Prigozhin like a bug on command? Yes, there's no doubt. It's a question of how big of a mess to clean up.

Why send some / not all — helicopters / jets shot down and personnel on the ground standing down. There are contradictions everywhere. 

[InkaUtexas 25893]

9 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Wagner has been allowed to operate in Africa as an arm of Russian foreign policy. They provide a convenient cutout and a way around deploying Russian active duty abroad. The Russian MOD allows recruiting and access to Russian military equipment and resources. Money flows up.

But how does Prigozhin and Wagner continue to operate like this after what just happened? Sustaining operations in Africa without support of the Russian MOD is very different than making a thunder run on Moscow to drive a point home. 
 

He may have been promised a lot of things. But I don’t see how this organization continues to exist at all and it will be fascinating to see how they adapt for activities in Africa.  

Understand. And if Wagner is going to be assimilated into the MOD, then these will then become MOD Operations. Will be interesting to watch and see how this plays out. I don't see Putin cutting off those revenue streams. Perhaps the "contracts" are cancelled and new ones issued to a newer PMC. 

They can subcontract support to other entities. Keep em small and easier to control. Lots of IL's and AN's sitting in Dubai they can use for air support/cargo. 

Will be something to watch. 

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

Some Russian helicopters and planes tried to intercept. They were shot down. I think we have to assume they were ordered to attack Wagner. There’s too much mental gymnastics needed to think only some were ordered to attack, or they weren’t ordered and these were rogue actors from Russian military. 

[SL Xpress 7513]

12 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I was only half joking when I said the Russians milling about in the streets, as tactical units set up, was because being slaughtered in the streets is something they may see as a best case scenario.  

Worldwide knows way more than I do about Eastern Europe but I have been amazed at the fight the Ukrainians have had.  Like this triggered something deep because I thought the Ukrainians were just like the Russians - fairly apathetic.  

I say this having a wife from Slovakia and seeing their general views around Russia and their own lives there in general.  Anyone with hope or ambition…leaves.  

The Ukrainians became my favorite people in the world back in 2014. 

 

[SL Xpress 7513]

7 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

A democratic regime's army will always outfight an authoritarian regime's army.

Ummmm.... That's not necessarily true. 

I wish it was, but sometimes Sauron wins. 

[G650 14249]

20 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

fairly apathetic

Fairly apathetic eh. In that case I fairly like sex