Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[The Dog 43,771]

 

[Rimbo 25,752]

8 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Ummmm.... That's not necessarily true. 

I wish it was, but sometimes Sauron wins. 

Give me a real world example.

Democracy's greatest enemy comes from the inside. Democracies eventually become less and less democratic over time.

[G650 13,989]

18 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

I’m not sure what we can read into the fact that little force was used against them when their invasion was stopped with little force apparently necessary to stop them

Not but so much at this stage would be my first bullet point. The comments of what we have seen are the kind of thing I'd caution against most, because we have no idea what we've just seen. We have maybe a 50% understanding on the high side at best. Any sort of hypothesis right now has to be rooted in historic understanding of Russia moreso than any images you have seen or "reporting".

 

 

[G650 13,989]

12 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Ummmm.... That's not necessarily true. 

I wish it was, but sometimes Sauron wins. 

It's pretty well established that democratic structures are inherently much more robust than authoritarian ones. That's not a moral judgment, just from empirical study. The movie has played out many, many times already. Authoritarianism hollows out the power base of a state and weakens it.

[MalibuSheriff 1,088]

 

[956 Worldwide 34,313]

15 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Some Russian helicopters and planes tried to intercept. They were shot down. I think we have to assume they were ordered to attack Wagner. There’s too much mental gymnastics needed to think only some were ordered to attack, or they weren’t ordered and these were rogue actors from Russian military. 

Here is the list of aircraft allegedly downed:

 

Of those, only the Ka-52 and Mi-35 have any sort of kinetic offensive capability. The others are transport, electronic warfare, and eye in the sky—- what you’d expect in a “keep an eye on this” situation. 
 

Notably missing from the area— Su-25 and Su-34 attack aircraft that would have made short work of any column driving down a highway. The only aerial hit that’s confirmed is a mistaken rocket attack that hit a bus.

Of all the things I’m sure of, I am sure there was never a top-down order through the RuAF chain of command to attack and stop Wagner.  

[Schulz2.0 28,752]

 

 

 

[G650 13,989]

7 minutes ago, MalibuSheriff said:

 

Sub optimal

8 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Of those, only the Ka-52 and Mi-35 have any sort of kinetic offensive capability. The others are transport, electronic warfare, and eye in the sky—- what you’d expect in a “keep an eye on this” situation. 

Bingo

[Schulz2.0 28,752]

 

[Chad Fuck 17,503]

16 minutes ago, MalibuSheriff said:

 

Is the implication here that Pierogi has nukes?  Because the world is not going to stand for that. 

[MalibuSheriff 1,088]

9 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Is the implication here that Pierogi has nukes?  Because the world is not going to stand for that. 

I sincerely hope he does not have nukes.  

[Rimbo 25,752]

20 minutes ago, G650 said:

Sub optimal

wrong thread

[Pig Bellmont 8,679]

26 minutes ago, G650 said:

It's pretty well established that democratic structures are inherently much more robust than authoritarian ones. That's not a moral judgment, just from empirical study. The movie has played out many, many times already. Authoritarianism hollows out the power base of a state and weakens it.

Tell that to the Mongols. Or is that why there’s no current conflict with Israel and the rest of the Arab world, you know, because it’s a democracy? How democratically did we leave Afghanistan? 

[Rimbo 25,752]

 

[Rimbo 25,752]

1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Tell that to the Mongols. Or is that why there’s no current conflict with Israel and the rest of the Arab world, you know, because it’s a democracy? How democratically did we leave Afghanistan? 

1. The Mongols, while not democratic, were well aligned with their leadership. Moreover, once Genghis died, everything fell apart.

2. Remind me the last time Israel lost a battle, much less a war.

[G650 13,989]

1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Tell that to the Mongols. Or is that why there’s no current conflict with Israel and the rest of the Arab world, you know, because it’s a democracy? How democratically did we leave Afghanistan? 

"Heres a thing that different than what you said, but sounds similar, and I'm going to argue against this thing you didn't say with you"

 

An internet classic.

[Pig Bellmont 8,679]

Just now, Rimbo said:

3 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

 

1. The Mongols, while not democratic, were well aligned with their leadership. Moreover, once Genghis died, everything fell apart.

 

Ah yes. Genghis Khan was famously about 300 years old 

[tokamak 6,350]

One thing that's interesting to me in all this is that the Russian media/propaganda machine hasn't brought up the West that much. So far in this war it seems like everything - everything - is a Western/American/NATO plot according to the official Russian line. But as far as I can tell, that hasn't entered the conversation around Prigozhin's little adventure.

[Rimbo 25,752]

Just now, tokamak said:

One thing that's interesting to me in all this is that the Russian media/propaganda machine hasn't brought up the West that much. So far in this war it seems like everything - everything - is a Western/American/NATO plot according to the official Russian line. But as far as I can tell, that hasn't entered the conversation around Prigozhin's little adventure.

Oh, not for a lack of trying. I haven't shared much of the Darth Putin account lately, be he's responding to the trolls. LOTS of flailing about from them, directionless.

3 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Ah yes. Genghis Khan was famously about 300 years old 

you... don't know anything at all about the Mongol empire, do you?

just stop before you embarrass yourself more

[Rimbo 25,752]

 

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

[Schulz2.0 28,752]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

5 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

Yesterday, nothing made sense. Then the agreement between Putin and Prozac really didn’t make sense. There still is a vital missing piece of information in this story. 

1 hour ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Putin’s in a tough situation. Prigozhin is very popular, apparently with the people as well as his troops. Maybe Putin wanted to kill him but Prigozhin was surrounded by supporters and loyal troops and Putin couldn’t get close to him. Maybe Putin couldn’t find anyone to carry out the order.

Yeah, my gut says something is missing.

I keep circling back to the fact that the orders to merge Wagner into the Russian MOD came down from Shoigu on Saturday, June 10th, and within 2 weeks of that, Prigozhin had thousands of Wagner troops on the road, taking cities with a million residents, taking military bases and HQs, potentially taking a nuke base, and ultimately coming to within 200-300km of Moscow.

Prigozhin has been planning this for far longer than June 10th.

Edit: @WhatTheBuck it's also bugging me that Prigozhin was walking around openly, without headgear, in Rostov on Don.  He was not worried about being assassinated at all.

Edited June 25, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

48 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Is the implication here that Pierogi has nukes?  Because the world is not going to stand for that. 

I don't know how Putin could stand for that.  Imagine if Prigozhin were to hand some out to other people, create some kind of warlord system - hell give some to the Chechens.  All of the sudden, Putin has a bunch of groups and even a republic or two with nukes telling him to fuck off.

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

2 hours ago, troph said:

Prigozhin did what he could and found an off ramp after getting a little too deep into it and farther than he thought he would.

2 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Can’t edit but wanted to add I actually think what happened (a mercenary army taking his military hub and being treated as heroes by the local citizenry) is 100x worse than his army annihilating the mercenaries the second they turned towards Russia.

I think Putin and the other high-level officials completely froze up and/or were getting the fuck out of Dodge.  Putin never expected one of his hand-picked people to do this, and Prigozhin probably anticipated that Putin would have some kind of response that would have caused Wagner to pause far away from Moscow.  When they took Rostov without firing a shot, and when their forces in the other oblasts were also unopposed, Prigozhin found himself behind the proverbial wheel of a car going downhill without any brakes.

2 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

That scenario does seem completely implausible if you assume Putin is firmly in control. Do you think Putin is firmly in control?

I think Putin finally realized that his FSB is either incompetent, corrupt (information not being passed on to Putin either to avoid his anger or to shape his worldview), infiltrated by Prigozhin and others, or a combination of those.  Regardless of which, without an FSB he can trust and that has its finger on the pulse of what is going on, Putin is definitely not firmly in control.

 

 

 

[berlinerbaer 670]

53 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Of those, only the Ka-52 and Mi-35 have any sort of kinetic offensive capability. The others are transport, electronic warfare, and eye in the sky—- what you’d expect in a “keep an eye on this” situation. 
 

Notably missing from the area— Su-25 and Su-34 attack aircraft that would have made short work of any column driving down a highway. The only aerial hit that’s confirmed is a mistaken rocket attack that hit a bus.

Of all the things I’m sure of, I am sure there was never a top-down order through the RuAF chain of command to attack and stop Wagner.  

I thought I heard the Russians set a daily record for number of missiles launched at Ukraine yesterday. It would have been easy to annihilate the Wagner column if there was consensus to do so.

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

This is better:

[Slacks 6,791]

5 hours ago, South Austin said:

Strike where?

Bro. You can't leave this open like this. 

I'm probably a day behind, but I know you know the answer to this. 

[Slacks 6,791]

4 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Your mom.

See. 

[South Austin 52,037]

6 minutes ago, Slacks said:

Bro. You can't leave this open like this. 

I'm probably a day behind, but I know you know the answer to this. 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

Maybe already posted, but he was up 36hrs straight, so what's his Surly handle

I went to bed after those crazy news and 36h being straight awake. Even though I referenced that this is a possibility (see this retweet), it was certainly not what I expected later on.

Prigozhin fooled every one, but I remain steadfast that he crossed the Rubicon, even though Putin was kept alive, for now. The deal is also one-sided and certainly not pre-arranged, except in Prigozhin’s head, who came out with the upper hand. At least for now. There is no chance in hell that there will be business as usual.

Especially not for Putin who in all of this was exposed as a lame duck. He clearly lost control and for now survived because some external factors decided it to be this way. But he is not the all dominant person in Russia any more and maybe this was the plan because the system was kept alive, while he has weakened. Putin’s fall likely would have would have caused a change of the system altogether and like I said, Prigozhin wants to inherit it and not destroy it.

What is the really frustrating part of all of this is the fact that the war will not end these day. Everyone on any side could have walked home and the dying would have ended from one day to the other. Under these circumstances this is not going to happen and many people will die the coming weeks. A senseless death which won’t change the overall outcome of the war.

It reminds me of the failed Hitler assassination of 20th July 1944. The war for Germany was clearly lost, but it took another year and millions of more lives which could have been saved when the devil would have been killed this day. It also showed that support for Ukraine is vital for our interest. It must be ramped up with no limits and hesitation. Give them everything what is needed to finally end this war.

While Putin secured another day to breath air even as a lame duck the whole episode showed us another constant in this Russia.

Cynicism and nihilism

You can be a traitor in the morning and pardoned in the evening, even when you kill a range of Russian soldier, the very few who held the line while the rest of the army disappeared into nowhere. And yes, I stand by what I said yesterday because it was fact. There was no more Russian army. The command structure was inexistent, by design, because this is exactly what defines cynicism and nihilism. There is no protocol, ideology or even honor, there is only survival and in this process people can turn from your friends to your enemies and vice versa, whatever helps the situation at the moment.

You as an individual do not exist and when you perish it is all your fault for making the wrong decisions at the wrong time, just like those 6 Russian pilots who were blown out of the skies over their own home homeland. Far worse is situation for the non-ethnic Russian population, when it comes being cannon-foddered, because they are welcome scapegoat for all the hardships for living in such conditions.

When Wagner was rolling through the Russian oblasts yesterday trying to locate Shoigu, Pro-Wagner channels were excessively using ethnic slurs, pointing out his Tuvan heritage. It was not about Shoigu’s incompetency, which is all over the place. He as Tuvan was their scapegoat of their failed system. It was exactly this racial undertone which drove them, especially when they talked about “genocide against the Russian people”.

When reflecting that minorities are making the brunt of losses of the Russian army, it paraphrases that shameless lies all but shameless to them. This is why the countries which were formerly under control by the Kremlin fought for their freedom and independence and achieved at least separation. Some succeeded even more and gained relative peace, as we saw with the Baltics. Some have been caught in new nightmares as we see in some Turkic states.

Others were caught somewhere in between and Ukraine was one of them. A state with a history full of tragedies and again under threat being vassal, but this time by one of their own. And this is when the Maidan in 2014 took place. Ukrainians have endured every foreign atrocity and where not willing to accept the atrocity by one of their own. This was an affront against a dictator like Putin whose very system can only survive in this atmosphere and it could not stand in the Kremlin’s eyes.

This is the only reason why this war exists. Some call it a fight democracy vs. autocracy, but for me it is a fight for law vs. arbitrariness. This is why I from time to time quote the 2nd US President, John Adams: “A republic of laws, not men.” What we saw yesterday in Russia was the travesty from which laws should protect us, because when people can decide the faith of millions based on a whim, then terror is the only result.

I for one will not stop to continue my struggle for freedom for anyone, anywhere. The possibility why I can do this today was granted by people who did this for me, before I was even born. It is a gift I can never be too thankful. I will continue this fight so that our children can live to do the same. This is our duty as freedom-loving people who have freedom and liberty handed over. We have to draw the line so that nihilism and cynicism cannot get hold of us and we can and will achieve this for as long as we do not stop pursuing this goal.

[InkaUtexas 25,423]

Offensive continues. 

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1673067233046679552

The link could not be embedded because twitter.com does not allow embedding of that tweet.

[Ted Dantzler 144]

As someone who went on TWO dates with a Ukrainian refugee I'll add my insight. 

She had a law degree and worked for the government for a couple of years then a western company doing web design or something. Her family left Kiev right after the invasion. 

Me: So explain the relationship between Russia/Ukraine. You speak both languages, are your countries like cousins or what?

Her: Fuck Russia. The only reason I speak Russian is because they made us in school. 

....10 minutes later

Me: So how did you end up in KC of all places? 

Her: Well my cousin, who is russian (rolls eyes) lives here so I'm staying with him. He came over when he was 4 so he's alright.

Her parents came over too but after it was clear the russians weren't going to take Kiev they went back because according to her dad "I'm going to die one day, if its during a missile strike so be it" 

[Ted Dantzler 144]

Also I couldn't stop thinking about Borat every time she talked. 

[PTINS 3,442]

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

The Ukrainians became my favorite people in the world back in 2014. 

 

They became my favorite people last year, but only because of my own ignorance. The clues were there, I just didn't bother to connect the dots.

• Chernobyl, and how so many Ukrainians were screwed at every level by the Soviet Union. 
• Seeing the Antonov 225 (Mryia), along with the Ukraine Blue SU-27 escorts at OKC in 1990.
• Sevastopol being so prominent in every Clancy-ish military/spy novel I read.
• Olga, my yoga teacher from Ukraine.
• Crimea; (i) just cause I like the way it sounds, (ii) when i learned Moscow was 400 miles north of North Dakota (no wonder they're always pissed off), and (iii) 2014, I was so pissed that all the US did was hold our breath until we turned blue. 
• The way the Ukraine people represent, in every way, in every situation, over and over.

Dmytro Kuleba:  Ukraine has one crucial factor on its side: "Historically, Ukraine was unfairly under-appreciated, and I regret it took a bloodshed and a devastating war for the world to realize how cool we are. And we will always be cool. But it just took you too much time to realize that."

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

The Ukrainians became my favorite people in the world back in 2014. 

 

They became my favorite people last year, but only because of my own ignorance. The clues were there, I just didn't bother to connect the dots.

• Chernobyl, and how so many Ukrainians were screwed at every level by the Soviet Union. 
• Seeing the Antonov 225 (Mryia), along with the Ukraine Blue SU-27 escorts at OKC in 1990.
• Sevastopol being so prominent in every Clancy-ish military/spy novel I read.
• Olga, my yoga teacher from Ukraine.
• Crimea; (i) just cause I like the way it sounds, (ii) when i learned Moscow was 400 miles north of North Dakota (no wonder they're always pissed off), and (iii) 2014, I was so pissed that all the US did was hold our breath until we turned blue. 
• The way the Ukraine people represent, in every way, in every situation, over and over.

Dmytro Kuleba:  Ukraine has one crucial factor on its side: "Historically, Ukraine was unfairly under-appreciated, and I regret it took a bloodshed and a devastating war for the world to realize how cool we are. And we will always be cool. But it just took you too much time to realize that."

[tokamak 6,350]

Pics of Olga not coming through for me

[Born to Run 6,519]

you... don't know anything at all about the Mongol empire, do you?
just stop before you embarrass yourself more

Raises hand! Ghengis was an epic dude, that liked to shop at Oshmans. oh, and San Dimas High School Football rules!

[PTINS 3,442]

Well, today was like a punch in the gut.

After not being here for most of the past few days, I did my speed read last night/this morning to get halfway caught up. Thinking the Russia implosion (the word of the week) was in progress, I fired off my reunion post.

Apologies. I should have read a few more pages.

 

So, does Lukashenko come back to Belarus, or does Pringles bring his army with him and rule, or what?

Edited June 25, 2023 by PTINS
double image

[The Dog 43,771]

 

[G650 13,989]

31 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

3 hours ago, Rimbo said:

you... don't know anything at all about the Mongol empire, do you?
just stop before you embarrass yourself more

Raises hand! Ghengis was an epic dude, that liked to shop at Oshmans. oh, and San Dimas High School Football rules!

It seems to me that the only thing you have learned is that Caesar is a salad dressing dude.

[The Dog 43,771]

russia has a BIG problem...
a few russian units switched sides and joined wagner in this little game.. here they are.

1) Military unit 11659: Command of the 22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade (RosGvardia), 
Commandant Company, 2nd Special Communications Detachment. 2)
 411th Detachment of the 22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade, Stepnoy village, Rostov-on-Don. 3) Practically the entire 108th Bataysk GRU Spetsnaz  Detachment with all of their Typhoon military vehicles. 4) Unit 14254: 387th Object "C" of the 12th Main Defence Ministry Directorate (nuclear) in the military town of Voronezh-45. Switched sides/surrendered without any resistance. 5) Border guards at Bugaevka checkpoint in Voronezh. 6) Entire FSB Federal Border Service of the regional command center for Voronezh region of the Central Military District. 7) FSB Border Service at Chertkovo customs & border checkpoint. 😎 Unit 7437: RosGvardia Spetsnaz motorized regiment. 9) Unit 3677: RosGvardia Separate Battalion in Voronezh. 10) Unit 63453: Separate Tank Brigade in Boguchar, Voronezh (MoD)
 

the largest problem is that the entire HQ from the 22nd SPF (SF) brigade switched sides,,, this unit is deployed to the front fighting in ukr along side the 45th SF brigade at the front of the counter attack... 

so what do they do? remove the commander and all the senior people???   do they remove the brigade? what??

this will be a big question.  its some of russias best troops.

[Rimbo 25,752]

1 hour ago, Ted Dantzler said:

Also I couldn't stop thinking about Borat every time she talked. 

Some good friends of ours are Khazakh.

They don't like Borat very much.

[Rimbo 25,752]

1 hour ago, PTINS said:

Olga, my yoga teacher from Ukraine.

 

1 hour ago, tokamak said:

Pics of Olga not coming through for me

[Schulz2.0 28,752]

4 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Some good friends of ours are Khazakh.

They don't like Borat very much.

Number 1 exporter of potassium...

[conVINCEd 21,468]

4 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Some good friends of ours are Khazakh.

They don't like Borat very much.

Whatever missteps Borat has made, he more than atoned for them with that video of Rudy.

[The Dog 43,771]

 

[The Dog 43,771]

 

[Dnaguy 11,740]

1 hour ago, Ted Dantzler said:

As someone who went on TWO dates with a Ukrainian refugee I'll add my insight. 

She had a law degree and worked for the government for a couple of years then a western company doing web design or something. Her family left Kiev right after the invasion. 

Me: So explain the relationship between Russia/Ukraine. You speak both languages, are your countries like cousins or what?

Her: Fuck Russia. The only reason I speak Russian is because they made us in school. 

....10 minutes later

Me: So how did you end up in KC of all places? 

Her: Well my cousin, who is russian (rolls eyes) lives here so I'm staying with him. He came over when he was 4 so he's alright.

Her parents came over too but after it was clear the russians weren't going to take Kiev they went back because according to her dad "I'm going to die one day, if its during a missile strike so be it" 

[Schulz2.0 28,752]

 

[The Dog 43,771]