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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89648

Posted
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7 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

How strongly tied to Lukashenko is the Belarusian military?  Because inviting Wagner in seems like it might piss some people off. 

He didn't send them into Ukraine, no matter how much Russia and Russian state TV wanted it, so there's a sense that he doesn't want to fuck around and find out how loyal they are.  Plus the active component is small, like 60,000 or so, and many/most are conscripts. 

2 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

They're useless to even overthrow someone like Lukashenko. Hertling labeled them as by far the worst military in Europe and it wasn't close, which I'm sure is by design.

Most are conscripts, and apparently there are alternatives to conscription, so the ones who are conscripted are not the best and brightest who were able to avoid it.

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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

He didn't send them into Ukraine, no matter how much Russia and Russian state TV wanted it, so there's a sense that he doesn't want to fuck around and find out how loyal they are.  Plus the active component is small, like 60,000 or so, and many/most are conscripts. 

Most are conscripts, and apparently there are alternatives to conscription, so the ones who are conscripted are not the best and brightest who were able to avoid it.

there were rumors that they were ordered to go in and refused. in fact, they might have switched to the Ukrainian side once they crossed the border had they actually gone in. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25907

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1 hour ago, statsman said:

It was regular army, not Green Berets or any other special forces. 

Yeah, there were. it was a conglomerate of units. Check out Units involved on this page. I have read some of the interviews with SF dudes who were there. USAF and Marines were providing the air support. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham

According to the U.S. military, the presence of U.S. special operations personnel in the targeted base elicited a response by coalition aircraft, including AC-130 gunships, F-22 Raptor and F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper unmanned combat aerial vehicles, AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, and B-52 bombers.[6][14][7] 

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19416

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4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yeah, there were. it was a conglomerate of units. Check out Units involved on this page. I have read some of the interviews with SF dudes who were there. USAF and Marines were providing the air support. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham

According to the U.S. military, the presence of U.S. special operations personnel in the targeted base elicited a response by coalition aircraft, including AC-130 gunships, F-22 Raptor and F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper unmanned combat aerial vehicles, AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, and B-52 bombers.[6][14][7] 

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Scheiss Meister

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The part of this whole thing that is keeps blowing me away is how many Eastern European nations are so suddenly amenable to having German troops on their soil and German weapons helping provide for their defense.  We're a long way from where we were when I was a kid in the 70s.  I understand why, it's just such a change from what I grew up thinking were immutable facts.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89648

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39 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

According to the U.S. military, the presence of U.S. special operations personnel in the targeted base elicited a response by coalition aircraft, including AC-130 gunships, F-22 Raptor and F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper unmanned combat aerial vehicles, AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, and B-52 bombers.[6][14][7] 

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atomheartbevo

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37 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

The part of this whole thing that is keeps blowing me away is how many Eastern European nations are so suddenly amenable to having German troops on their soil and German weapons helping provide for their defense.  We're a long way from where we were when I was a kid in the 70s.  I understand why, it's just such a change from what I grew up thinking were immutable facts.

The cynical part of me wonders if it's because this is all a huge boost for the German arms industry.

On the flip side, Germany is now mostly/fully free of dependence on Russia (and the pro-Russian contingent in German politics has been minimalized) and so maybe without that sword hanging over their head, and with seeing how weak Putin is, and how well Ukraine is doing, the thought is pump resources into deterrence rather than fuck around and find out what Article 5 means when it's Russians going into a NATO country.

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HOOKEM4

HOOKEM4 5036

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43 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The cynical part of me wonders if it's because this is all a huge boost for the German arms industry.

On the flip side, Germany is now mostly/fully free of dependence on Russia (and the pro-Russian contingent in German politics has been minimalized) and so maybe without that sword hanging over their head, and with seeing how weak Putin is, and how well Ukraine is doing, the thought is pump resources into deterrence rather than fuck around and find out what Article 5 means when it's Russians going into a NATO country.

The speed at which the ruzzians would turn into a pink mist if they trigger article 5 would be amazing. You have a rabid dog wishing a motherfucker would while welding a giant stick. Raytheon would get to try out some new tech and 3 days later pootin would be without a head. 

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Armybrat

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2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Kinda funny, because when Russia invaded Ukraine last year and the US generously offered to evacuate Zelensky and his people, he stated loudly, “I don’t need a ride, I need ammo”.

Prigo on the other hand has been begging for ammo, and instead got a ride.

Laughing my old ass off.

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HOOKEM4

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16 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Also said by an old farmer that showed up in a flatbed f450 to tow away the 17 ft 3000 lb travel trailer i had for sale. 
 

sometimes it’s best to be sure. 

If a things worth doin, it's worth doing right.

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dimyh

dimyh 1874

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Been percolating some thoughts about what all transpired. Some of this is quite obvious but there are a few key things that I haven't seen mentioned.

It is quite clear that Priggy values the power and money that comes with leading Wagner. He has seen firsthand the shit show that's happening on the frontlines. He knows the incompetence of the RAF with their leadership. The order to sign contracts with the RAF is a direct threat to his lone cash cow(*). Absolutely no way he can lose all of that power without some type of compensation. The push to Moscow is the classic Russian business negotiation tactic -- make maximal demands with as much threats as possible. He's not looking to overthrow Putin but to find the best cash out option for his military IPO. Maybe he lucks out and Putin actually sacks Shoigu and Gerasimov, possibly promoting Priggy or someone at least not a total asshole to the Wagner concept. Or in this case what actually transpired was a soft landing in Belarus.

Why Belarus? Well there are not many exile options for Putin. Everything is under sanctions or under siege. Plus Belarus does provide some flexibility on Putin's terms to shut down Wagner. The decree from RAF was that any mercenaries operating in Russia or Ukraine needed to sign contracts. With Priggy operating out of Belarus there is technically no violation of running a skeleton crew of Wagner operations. He can still direct affairs in Africa, possibly provide training for the next round of Russian mobniks, and continue to consolidate his most loyal staff while the majority of Wagner crew can be sold off to the RAF. The enforcement of Russian laws can be very arbitrary but sometimes they can be quite pedantic and by setting up shop in Belarus, Priggy and Putin can sidestep some of those accusations.

And if Priggy is not allowed to operate Wagner at all, then he's cashed in whatever he could into a spot adjacent to the political power structure. He now has some political clout, demonstrated by the random Russian's cheering him once he left Rostov-on-the-Don. His rants and ravings appeal to that basic Russian strongman fantasy. If he can outlast Putin from getting poisoned/ejected then he might have some wiggle room into the new administration. Especially if he can continue to have some low-level mercenary forces working from him then he may very well be the scapel that the final coup wields when they make a move against Putin. Though I have to wonder how thrilled Lukashenko is with volunteering to be the Airbnb for this guy. Never trust a scorpion.

 

* Does anyone know if Priggy still has the food contracts with the RAF? That is where he made his big cash, moving up from the restaurant biz and finding a way to siphon that govt cheddar.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

Posted
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22 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Been percolating some thoughts about what all transpired. Some of this is quite obvious but there are a few key things that I haven't seen mentioned.

It is quite clear that Priggy values the power and money that comes with leading Wagner. He has seen firsthand the shit show that's happening on the frontlines. He knows the incompetence of the RAF with their leadership. The order to sign contracts with the RAF is a direct threat to his lone cash cow(*). Absolutely no way he can lose all of that power without some type of compensation. The push to Moscow is the classic Russian business negotiation tactic -- make maximal demands with as much threats as possible. He's not looking to overthrow Putin but to find the best cash out option for his military IPO. Maybe he lucks out and Putin actually sacks Shoigu and Gerasimov, possibly promoting Priggy or someone at least not a total asshole to the Wagner concept. Or in this case what actually transpired was a soft landing in Belarus.

Why Belarus? Well there are not many exile options for Putin. Everything is under sanctions or under siege. Plus Belarus does provide some flexibility on Putin's terms to shut down Wagner. The decree from RAF was that any mercenaries operating in Russia or Ukraine needed to sign contracts. With Priggy operating out of Belarus there is technically no violation of running a skeleton crew of Wagner operations. He can still direct affairs in Africa, possibly provide training for the next round of Russian mobniks, and continue to consolidate his most loyal staff while the majority of Wagner crew can be sold off to the RAF. The enforcement of Russian laws can be very arbitrary but sometimes they can be quite pedantic and by setting up shop in Belarus, Priggy and Putin can sidestep some of those accusations.

And if Priggy is not allowed to operate Wagner at all, then he's cashed in whatever he could into a spot adjacent to the political power structure. He now has some political clout, demonstrated by the random Russian's cheering him once he left Rostov-on-the-Don. His rants and ravings appeal to that basic Russian strongman fantasy. If he can outlast Putin from getting poisoned/ejected then he might have some wiggle room into the new administration. Especially if he can continue to have some low-level mercenary forces working from him then he may very well be the scapel that the final coup wields when they make a move against Putin. Though I have to wonder how thrilled Lukashenko is with volunteering to be the Airbnb for this guy. Never trust a scorpion.

 

* Does anyone know if Priggy still has the food contracts with the RAF? That is where he made his big cash, moving up from the restaurant biz and finding a way to siphon that govt cheddar.

I can't imagine the Russian government would continue to pay him the food business, contract or not, while they have exiled him for mutiny; but then again, you know, it's Russia.  On a positive note, at the current rate, the need to feed Russian soldiers won't exist for much longer anyway.  

I was doing some thinking earlier, on the high side Russia is losing 20k per month and it's at least 10k.  To put that in perspective, that's a Vietnam equivalent at least every 6 months, if not a quarter.  The other thing that comes to mind is every week they are losing the equivalent of 4 to 5 large high schools worth of young men a week.  Holy shit, that's a staggering loss on a weekly basis, with no end in sight.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89648

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29 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Plus Belarus does provide some flexibility on Putin's terms to shut down Wagner. The decree from RAF was that any mercenaries operating in Russia or Ukraine needed to sign contracts. With Priggy operating out of Belarus there is technically no violation of running a skeleton crew of Wagner operations. He can still direct affairs in Africa, possibly provide training for the next round of Russian mobniks, and continue to consolidate his most loyal staff while the majority of Wagner crew can be sold off to the RAF.

About that...

It seems Putin has, in fact, announced the dissolution of Wagner PMC. He offered three options to Wagner mercenaries: 1. Sign contracts with Russian defense ministry or other power structures. 2. Return home to their families. 3. Leave for Belarus. Might this be the end of Wagner PMC?

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89648

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There was some confusion about Priggy Baby's audio that he released, and the video - Russian speakers are saying the audio matches the translation, it's just that old video footage was used as the background.  Rothrock deleted it and is uploading another version with just a photo as the background.

But apparently Prigozhin is not done yet.

 

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statsman

statsman 5457

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Before Ukraine, Wagner were pretty much experienced Russian troops, kind of their approximation of Blackwater (although they took on larger and more aggressive assignments than Blackwater). 
 
In Ukraine, they augmented with poorly trained penal troops, used as cannon fodder, as described elsewhere. We’ve read other reports of conscripts being shipped to Wagner (rarely ethnic Russians from major cities). I’m guessing the cannon fodder is getting paid a whole lot less than the experienced Wagners. (And I’m guessing experienced Wagners make a lot more than regular Russian troops, and wouldn’t be surprised if that were a source of resentment). 
 
With hard feeling between regular Russian troops and Wagner, rolling veteran Wagner troops into the Russian army may involve a big cut in pay, eating some shit, and being given the most dangerous assignments with minimal support. 
 
That’s a shame. 

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