Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[KYHorn 16857]

Ukrainian drone hits Russian trenches, Russians catch on fire, hilarity ensues. 

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1674383627633803270?t=dI9GCSl8OmIc-YCHvaBWIQ&s=19 

[Parliament 14128]

Zeihan is good, but hyperbolic.  Nothing is as imminent as he thinks it is.  And yeah.  Get a haircut.

[KYHorn 16857]

Surovikin just left for "a quick errand"

 

[KYHorn 16857]

An incredible number. This war won't leave the Ukrainian conscience for centuries. I read a report last week about a British nonprofit that is arranging telehealth and virtual therapy to help give Ukrainians access to the care they need. This shows how important that work is to rebuilding Ukraine. I also wonder what the corresponding figure in Russia is. 

[locodos 5333]

9 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

Zeihan called out exactly what the Russians would do 10 years ago. He has been nails predicting geopolitics in general, and the Russians specifically. You might not like his style (the hair needs to go imo) but you're dead wrong if you think he doesn't know what he's talking about or think he's a hack.

This presentation was in 2014 and he nailed it:

 

 

Ho lee shit, did you even watch the video you posted?    Laughably bad. I was pleased to learn that the US is the ONLY country that will meet it's Kyoto protocols obligations.   Dude's big talent is looking at a map and talking about it in a pedantic way.  These are mountains, you can't move an army easily over mountains, deserts don't support big populations, this is a choo choo track goods move efficiently here... oh shit this guy has it all figured out!

 

oh here's a blurb from his wiki page...  Yup you guessed it, he wrote a book about maps and terrain features.

Quote

In 2014 he released Accidental Superpower. The book was reviewed by The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and Kirkus Reviews.^[8][11][12] The book focused on topographical and geographical landmarks (rivers, oceans, mountains, etc.) as distinct advantages in a nation's ability to dominate others economically, industrially, and militarily. With the use of maps, Zeihan pointed out that navigable rivers, or access to the oceans, along with a reliable road or rail network make a critical difference.^[8] Another three books were published afterwards including The Absent Superpower (2017), Disunited Nations (2020), and The End of the World Is Just the Beginning (2022).

 

If you want a good book about the real world effects of geography (and actual analysis) I recommend Guns, Germs, and Steel.

[SL Xpress 7505]

23 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

They were bought and are called RANE now. They have videos on YT and George Friedman (Austinite) runs Geopolitical Futures now.

 

 

Zeihan called out exactly what the Russians would do 10 years ago. He has been nails predicting geopolitics in general, and the Russians specifically. You might not like his style (the hair needs to go imo) but you're dead wrong if you think he doesn't know what he's talking about or think he's a hack.

This presentation was in 2014 and he nailed it:

 

 

When you say he nailed it, what exactly did he nail there?

Don’t get me wrong. I enjoyed the presentation, but anything important had already occurred (Crimea, Donbas) and the rest of his predictions didn’t pan out. Specifically Odesa never went Russian. And it wasn’t 4 years before they did anything more radical. As we know, it was 8 years. 

I think it’s important to have speculative theorizors, but it’s also important to recognize them as such. He likes taking data and analyzing what if scenarios. But timing and how many of his what ifs come to pass aren’t nearly as important as just having some of them come true. 

In any case, the Kerch bridge was a Ukrainian special forces operation using a truck bomb and forward intelligence of a fuel laden rail car to create a massive explosion that damaged the bridge and the underlying support structure. Not a clandestine IS strike or unannounced long range weaponry. 

Which is not my effort to debunk Zeihan, but merely to ask people to not necessarily take everything he says completely at face value. He doesn’t even take everything he says at face value. 

[Bevo 13524]

33 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

They were bought and are called RANE now. They have videos on YT and George Friedman (Austinite) runs Geopolitical Futures now.

Is geopolitical futures the same style as Stratfor? Can you get free content?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

21 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

An incredible number. This war won't leave the Ukrainian conscience for centuries. I read a report last week about a British nonprofit that is arranging telehealth and virtual therapy to help give Ukrainians access to the care they need. This shows how important that work is to rebuilding Ukraine. I also wonder what the corresponding figure in Russia is. 

They’ll end up the best part of NATO.  This thing will end, UKr will kick Russia out, they’ll join, and they’ll have some sharp sticks pointing east from that day on.  No begging them for the 2% gdp spend or whatever.  
 

8 hours ago, BamaATL said:

we'd shut the power off in Russia first with a cyber attack, followed by an attack on their communication satellites, shortly after we'd sink their Navy (all of it), then we'd hit as many missile installations we knew of with stealth cruise missiles, then we'd down their Air Force (all of it).   Then I guess we could hit the bridge I guess for shits and giggles.  

[MagicSoccerSpray 1725]

20 minutes ago, locodos said:

Ho lee shit, did you even watch the video you posted?    Laughably bad. I was pleased to learn that the US is the ONLY country that will meet it's Kyoto protocols obligations.   Dude's big talent is looking at a map and talking about it in a pedantic way.  These are mountains, you can't move an army easily over mountains, deserts don't support big populations, this is a choo choo track goods move efficiently here... oh shit this guy has it all figured out!

 

oh here's a blurb from his wiki page...  Yup you guessed it, he wrote a book about maps and terrain features.

 

If you want a good book about the real world effects of geography (and actual analysis) I recommend Guns, Germs, and Steel.

 

This was just one video I could find in a couple of minutes of searching. He actually called out the Russian moves in his first book in 2011, and he is a proponent of Geography predicting Geopolitics because of history. I've read Gun, Germs, and Steel and it's great.

 

18 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Is geopolitical futures the same style as Stratfor? Can you get free content?

 

Yes, and they have some videos as well. Friedman has lots of interviews and videos on YT too, though he seems to have slowed. Ian Bremmer, Michael Kofman, and Stephen Kotkin are good too imo.

 

19 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

When you say he nailed it, what exactly did he nail there?

Don’t get me wrong. I enjoyed the presentation, but anything important had already occurred (Crimea, Donbas) and the rest of his predictions didn’t pan out. Specifically Odesa never went Russian. And it wasn’t 4 years before they did anything more radical. As we know, it was 8 years. 

I think it’s important to have speculative theorizors, but it’s also important to recognize them as such. He likes taking data and analyzing what if scenarios. But timing and how many of his what ifs come to pass aren’t nearly as important as just having some of them come true. 

In any case, the Kerch bridge was a Ukrainian special forces operation using a truck bomb and forward intelligence of a fuel laden rail car to create a massive explosion that damaged the bridge and the underlying support structure. Not a clandestine IS strike or unannounced long range weaponry. 

Which is not my effort to debunk Zeihan, but merely to ask people to not necessarily take everything he says completely at face value. He doesn’t even take everything he says at face value. 

 

He can be a little too declaratory sometimes imo but he's been ahead of the curve predicting the weakening of globalization, Russia, Chinese/American relations, and EU power. He's not Nostradamus, but he's been better than most Geopolitical analysts the past decade.

 

Edited June 29, 2023 by MagicSoccerSpray

[Macanudo 12925]

I should have preferenced my comments on Zeihan as rhetorical.    I do not think we hit the bridge.   It was not worth the possible issues with escalation and if we had, it would be out of commission.   I do not think Zeihan is the end all be all of commentary but he's one of the voices I listen to for a viewpoint.   He really, really beats the demographics drum hard and also about how few people in Russia would be capable of replacing Putin/his cronies.   

[Braff Zacklin 13409]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

I respect them mixing it up and saying ATV accident. The falling out a window was getting stale. 

Ever since the o.g. defenestration event in Prague more than 400 years ago, Eastern Europeans have been limited to no more than four involuntary window exitings per month.

Initially it was six, but the figure was revised downward after special pleadings from the Catholic church, the World Health Organization, and the United Glassmakers Union of Ipswich (#382).

[SL Xpress 7505]

7 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

This was just one video I could find in a couple of minutes of searching. He actually called out the Russian moves in his first book in 2011, and he is a proponent of Geography predicting Geopolitics because of history. I've read Gun, Germs, and Steel and it's great.

 

 

Yes, and they have some videos as well. Friedman has lots of interviews and videos on YT too, though he seems to have slowed. Ian Bremmer, Michael Kofman, and Stephen Kotkin are good too imo.

 

 

He can be a little too declaratory sometimes imo but he's been ahead of the curve predicting the weakening of globalization, Russia, Chinese/American relations, and EU power. He's not Nostradamus, but he's been better than most Geopolitical analysts the past decade.

 

I don’t have a problem with Zeihan. I’m too declarative. It’s effective rhetorically. Passion and conviction changes hearts and minds. 

The central issue is his speculations regarding the Kerch bridge. It shouldn’t be taken seriously. He likes throwing out what ifs. It’s important to note. The video you linked is a good example. Based on what he knew in 2014 he speculated that Russian friendly areas - including Odesa that was famously founded by Catherine the Great, and the implied move of Kherson over to Russia by more clandestine means would allow Russia to shut off Ukraine access to Dnipro and the Black Sea, their grain would have no export market because it’s too low quality for Europe, the US would not have any incentive to support Eastern Europe in any kind of face off with Russia, and Germany would then be impelled to send troops through Poland to fight off Russia in Ukraine. Cue ironic laughter. 

Instead the lines of battle became static. Russia quit risking their military in excursions in Ukrainian territory. I don’t agree with his assessment that the Ukrainian military fell into a trap. But they never were as aggressive in taking back territory. Poroshenko was elected as rabidly anti Russian, then Zelensky was elected as a primarily Russian speaking Ukrainian who wouldn’t be as much of a hardliner towards Russia. And a pro Ukrainian Biden was elected president. None of which could be predicted in 2014 regardless of demographic trends. Doesn’t make them wrong or unhelpful. 

The truth is - and we’ve talked about it unpteen times before - the invasion was a massive mistake. But the crusades were a massive mistake, too. They were both carried out for the wrong reasons by zealots where what made sense was less important than the religious cause behind them. With the crusades the restoration of the Holy Land in Christian hands. With the invasion the restoration of imperial Russia and the final erasure of the historical mistake of Ukraine. But that wasn’t predictable in 2014 by Zeihan because he didn’t have enough information at his disposal. He saw any military action in Ukraine as a mopping up exercise for the final remnants of an isolated Ukraine. As far as predictions go, that’s a really bad one. 

[Parliament 14128]

54 minutes ago, locodos said:

Ho lee shit, did you even watch the video you posted?    Laughably bad. I was pleased to learn that the US is the ONLY country that will meet it's Kyoto protocols obligations.   Dude's big talent is looking at a map and talking about it in a pedantic way.  These are mountains, you can't move an army easily over mountains, deserts don't support big populations, this is a choo choo track goods move efficiently here... oh shit this guy has it all figured out!

 

oh here's a blurb from his wiki page...  Yup you guessed it, he wrote a book about maps and terrain features.

 

If you want a good book about the real world effects of geography (and actual analysis) I recommend Guns, Germs, and Steel.

He dumbs things down for the 99% of people who aren't the geopolitical nerds like we have here.  Sure it's a bit oversimplfied, but still effective.  He went mainstream when Russia invaded in 2022 and we all discovered his presentations on Youtube.  Those much better than the "pop geopolitics" vids he makes today.  And FWIW, one of his talks was in front of a group of US military folks.  (Looked like mid-level officers?)  So he must have some good insight.

One of his "what if's" talked about how the Mexican drug lord problem has commonalities with Afganistan's tribal war lords.  He wasn't advocating for a US miltary intervention, but suggesting we have good expertise that can be drawn on.  Good stuff.

[Parliament 14128]

Russian apologist Douglas MacGregor is on the PBD Broadcast right now.  (PBD is poor man's Joe Rogan.  He had Andrew Tate's douchebag brother on a few weeks ago.)

Watched 3 minutes and already got these nuggets:

"Putin's mistakes shrink when compared to our own mistakes."

"I would argue that most of the World backs Russia over us."

"Russian minorities are treated well.  Look at the Chechnians."

"Russia is more cohesive than we are."

"This war is gonna help him (Putin) enormously. It will lead to an awakening (in Russia society)."

[SydneyCarton 47847]

6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Russian apologist Douglas MacGregor is on the PBD Broadcast right now.  (PBD is poor man's Joe Rogan.  He had Andrew Tate's douchebag brother on a few weeks ago.)

Watched 3 minutes and already got these nuggets:

"Putin's mistakes shrink when compared to our own mistakes."

"I would argue that most of the World backs Russia over us."

"Russian minorities are treated well.  Look at the Chechnians."

"Russia is more cohesive than we are."

"This war is gonna help him (Putin) enormously. It will lead to an awakening (in Russia society)."

I mean, it's Russia, but that last comment has an outside chance of being true. Just not in the way he's presenting. 

[locodos 5333]

1 minute ago, Parliament said:

He dumbs things down for the 99% of people who aren't the geopolitical nerds like we have here.  Sure it's a bit oversimplfied, but still effective.  He went mainstream when Russia invaded in 2022 and we all discovered his presentations on Youtube.  Those much better than the "pop geopolitics" vids he makes today.  And FWIW, one of his talks was in front of a group of US military folks.  (Looked like mid-level officers?)  So he must have some good insight.

One of his "what if's" talked about how the Mexican drug lord problem has commonalities with Afganistan's tribal war lords.  He wasn't advocating for a US miltary intervention, but suggesting we have good expertise that can be drawn on.  Good stuff.

Going by the video posted above he doesn't know what's happening in the actual state/country he lives in, forgive me if I doubt his ability to project real valuable insight across the globe.

All I get from this guy are con man vibes.  He's monetizing talking.  So he has interesting things to say whether those things are true or not. Like the TB claim in the video posted above. "Most (Russian) teenagers have TB"  

Here's what the NIH says about TB in Russia "In Russia and the former Soviet Union, TB has been an acute problem. Today, the official estimate of the incidence of TB is about 82 to 83 per 100,000 population." 

He is an entertainer. 

[MagicSoccerSpray 1725]

26 minutes ago, Parliament said:

He dumbs things down for the 99% of people who aren't the geopolitical nerds like we have here.  Sure it's a bit oversimplfied, but still effective.  He went mainstream when Russia invaded in 2022 and we all discovered his presentations on Youtube.  Those much better than the "pop geopolitics" vids he makes today.  And FWIW, one of his talks was in front of a group of US military folks.  (Looked like mid-level officers?)  So he must have some good insight.

One of his "what if's" talked about how the Mexican drug lord problem has commonalities with Afganistan's tribal war lords.  He wasn't advocating for a US miltary intervention, but suggesting we have good expertise that can be drawn on.  Good stuff.

 

He's former state department and has consulted for some three letter agencies. Here is his presentation to the Army Maneuver Warfighter Conference the week before the Ukrainian invasion.

 

 

[RPM 26215]

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

Did the ATV fly through a window?

It slipped on some polonium.

[kevwun 15621]

It was the old polonium in the tailpipe trick.

[Dahobbs 17437]

41 minutes ago, locodos said:

Going by the video posted above he doesn't know what's happening in the actual state/country he lives in, forgive me if I doubt his ability to project real valuable insight across the globe.

All I get from this guy are con man vibes.  He's monetizing talking.  So he has interesting things to say whether those things are true or not. Like the TB claim in the video posted above. "Most (Russian) teenagers have TB"  

Here's what the NIH says about TB in Russia "In Russia and the former Soviet Union, TB has been an acute problem. Today, the official estimate of the incidence of TB is about 82 to 83 per 100,000 population." 

He is an entertainer. 

He has a lot of problems with citing sources for his figures. I think some of his analysis is interesting, but he has a tendency to find facts he likes without doing much to research into their sources or to verify their reliability.  

[SydneyCarton 47847]

My biggest problem with Zeihan is his motherfucking ties. 

[G650 14086]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

(PBD is poor man's Joe Rogan

Is this even possible

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

18 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

My biggest problem with Zeihan is his motherfucking ties. 

Have you heard him laugh?

[SydneyCarton 47847]

8 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Have you heard him laugh?

His awkward laughter is short lived. Those ties are fucking nails on chalkboard for minutes or hours at a time. 

[Deej 76542]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

he has a tendency to find facts he likes without doing much to research into their sources or to verify their reliability.  

Sounds like he'd fit right in here. Maybe he gets his facts from TikTok comments? 

[BamaATL 16592]

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28764]

 

[ABSR 5289]

4 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

I guess he drove it out the window of a high rise.  Horrible accident, but it happens.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

12 hours ago, brakeman said:

 

[The Dog 43792]

fucking finally:

 

[kevwun 15621]

They are gonna pepper the Kerch Bridge like a Louis Mueller beef rib.

[Parliament 14128]

21 minutes ago, The Dog said:

fucking finally:

 

 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11806]

13 hours ago, brakeman said:

 

That guys liver is kissing his belly button.

 

[Schulz2.0 28764]

 

Edited June 29, 2023 by Schulz2.0

[Gatorubet 30083]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Chechens will revolt the second his troop levels are significantly reduced.  He can’t lose them.  That’s why they are blocking troops. 

[The Dog 43792]

take with a large grain of salt:

"

In Russia, a war broke out between the FSB and the Ministry of Defense - Ukrainian intelligence"

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[atomheartbevo 89408]

4 hours ago, Macanudo said:

 He really, really beats the demographics drum hard and also about how few people in Russia would be capable of replacing Putin/his cronies.   

I think he's probably right on both.  Well, we know demographics is a problem for them - they upped their mobilization and enlistment ages up drastically, as well as loosening standards on mental and physical health.

In terms of replacing Putin and his cronies, I've heard him say only a few hundred people are capable of taking over and competently managing a large organization in Russia, and I think he's probably right - many/most who are competent in the civilian sector have probably left Russia years ago for greener pastures.  Maybe it's a thousand people, but Russian society simply doesn't have that many opportunities the way that the West does.

Those in the military - we are constantly seeing a serious lack of either independent thought/actions, or if they are capable of it, a fear of doing something that may seem right on the surface, but may catch hell from those above them, so they wait around for orders - we constantly see this on the battlefield, we saw it during Prigozhin's march.  It's not like Western militaries where independent thought is expected amongst junior NCOs and officers when faced with situations that change. It's not helped that in Russia, officers are making decisions and issuing commands that normally junior NCOs would be handling in the West.  And Putin has purged a lot of generals over the last 20 years, that he was worried about either because of potential coup implications, or just in general that they had developed a following amongst their men that he found threatening.  Instead, we get interchangeable generals who, regardless of their battlefield competence, are judged more for how Putin thinks they are doing.

Civilian area/political arena - the mindsets that we all saw in the Chernobyl mini-series on HBO is arguably still there with some of them.  Shit, Shoigu is running the military instead of somebody who came up through the ranks.  And there was no mass demonstration of independence on the part of the oblasts when Prigozhin was doing his thing - everybody seemed to be waiting to see what would happen, outside of a few dug-up highways (which would not have slowed Prigozhin down).  And combine that with the rampant corruption that leads those who are competent organizers/managers at a large-scale level to either scamming the system and keeping their heads down, or elevating themselves up to (or near) the oligarch level.

[InkaUtexas 25496]

5 hours ago, locodos said:

Ho lee shit, did you even watch the video you posted?    Laughably bad. I was pleased to learn that the US is the ONLY country that will meet it's Kyoto protocols obligations.   Dude's big talent is looking at a map and talking about it in a pedantic way.  These are mountains, you can't move an army easily over mountains, deserts don't support big populations, this is a choo choo track goods move efficiently here... oh shit this guy has it all figured out!

 

oh here's a blurb from his wiki page...  Yup you guessed it, he wrote a book about maps and terrain features.

 

If you want a good book about the real world effects of geography (and actual analysis) I recommend Guns, Germs, and Steel.

Agree about the book and the analyst! A few friends subscribed to StratFor. During the coup in Zimbabwe they were saying it was not happening. Meanwhile I am getting videos of the tanks moving from friends on the ground real time. 

Another good book if you want to get into geography and impact on military operations is Military Geography by John Collins. He is no longer with us, but dude was a bad ass. Basically ran Congressional Research Services which is a pretty good place for information. 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[atomheartbevo 89408]

5 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

Zeihan called out exactly what the Russians would do 10 years ago. He has been nails predicting geopolitics in general, and the Russians specifically. You might not like his style (the hair needs to go imo) but you're dead wrong if you think he doesn't know what he's talking about or think he's a hack.

He has gotten a lot of things right, but some of his predicted outcomes could have been based on reasons other than he claims, and because it's Russia it's hard to say.

If you believe him when he says Putin is obsessed with pushing Russia's boundaries out to geographical barriers it makes sense, because you'd think Putin is afraid of the West invading Russia, and that he has to act now because of the demographic crisis and from here on out, every year leaves Putin with a smaller and smaller pool of manpower to draw from.

But one could argue that there are other issues at play that drove Putin - arrogance over getting away with 2014, a belief that NATO was at a weak point and divided, greed and a fear that if Ukraine brought its offshore resources into play (which was in the works), it could cripple Russia economically and therefore Russia had to annex the coastal areas to get control of them.  And Putin getting older (closing in on 70) and wanting to cement his legacy and/or a concern that he needed some wins to keep the people in line.

Unfortunately we probably won't know exactly what Putin was thinking for a long time to come.

[Foosters 17727]

22 hours ago, Braff Zacklin said:

Yes, quite the reverse of how the Russians were greeted, if you recall.

I've thought of both parties many times, especially once the "special operation" started to not go to plan for the invaders.

Is she still alive? Are the Russians? If they died, where did they fall? Was her prophecy still in their ears as they took their final breaths?

What initially seemed like an act of defiance in a hopeless cause has become quite prophetic--that lady truly did curse them that day.

New shirt. Arrived a few weeks back 

 

[The Dog 43792]

tl;dr version (best I can come up with):

1. Prigozhin wanted to capture the Conoco oil fields for an oil oligarch associated with Wagner;

2. Prigozhin is BFF with Surovikin (head of Russian AF) and thought he would have air support;

3. Gerasimov ordered the Russian military to stand down and not support the attack once underway;

4. Russia MOD denied involvement which gave the US the green light to wipe them out;

5. Prigozhin ran to Moscow in a rage once it was over and was ignored by Shoigu and Gerasimov.

[Schulz2.0 28764]

 

[tokamak 6351]

14 minutes ago, The Dog said:

tl;dr version (best I can come up with):

1. Prigozhin wanted to capture the Conoco oil fields for an oil oligarch associated with Wagner;

2. Prigozhin is BFF with Surovikin (head of Russian AF) and thought he would have air support;

3. Gerasimov ordered the Russian military to stand down and not support the attack once underway;

4. Russia MOD denied involvement which gave the US the green light to wipe them out;

5. Prigozhin ran to Moscow in a rage once it was over and was ignored by Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Prigozhin to Russia: "my troops are being slaughtered in Syria and Ukraine, this will not stand!"

Prigozhin to his troops: "I'm peacing out to Belarus on my private jet, y'all are on your own lol"

[The Dog 43792]

[Schulz2.0 28764]

 

[YGIFS 19449]

14 minutes ago, The Dog said:

If that's the sofa of a Russian billionaire.  Imagine how shitty the sofa of a Russian millionaire must be? 

Also, I'm picturing the Air Force commander being dismissed.  And they're trying to figure out how to throw him out of a window but with some military dignity for his service as a pilot to the RF.  And somebody walks in with a copy of the Goose ejection scene in Top Gun on the glass cockpit.  And Putin says, "Oh, I like that.  I like that idea very much."  

[Rimbo 25772]