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54 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Translated version of the footage of the Ukrainian capture of a Russian position SL Express posted earlier. It helps to explain the situation with that one Russian lying on the ground with the grenade. Also, the way they treat/talk to that itty-bitty Russian guy makes me think they realize he probably has some intellectual challenges.

 

Whoa, off camera you can hear the grenade go off.

 

Fucking intense. 

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32 minutes ago, Ten Bears said:

Whoa, off camera you can hear the grenade go off.

 

Fucking intense. 

Yep. Going from fighting and trying to kill the Russians, to saving Russian lives by getting them to surrender, and then having to worry about that kind of shit has got to be a complete and stressful mind fuck. Kudos to that guy for going back and handing out juice boxes to the other prisoners.

 

In the video below, a Scooby Doo van shows up at a Russian forward position to drop off fresh meat as a shell hits nearby. Russians pile out like a clown car while it picks up one lucky survivor from that blast, and takes off with him.

BOOM. Another shell hits and one of the (formerly fresh) meats crawls out and presumably dies.

 

 

Edited by bolverk
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2 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Because twitters is dying.  I can't see any of them on my phone.  On the laptop I can see them.  

I don’t Twit, so no big deal if it goes the way of MySpace. 
But wish folks would put their stuff on something viable & easily accessible.

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33 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I don’t Twit, so no big deal if it goes the way of MySpace. 
But wish folks would put their stuff on something viable & easily accessible.

 

Yeah. Not only has Elon fucked up twitter, you have to be an account holder to watch videos. So that's going to be problematic going forward for sharing information.

I'll try to start posting them from the few subreddits I'm aware of that follow the conflict instead of twitter. The problems with reddit are a) it doesn't seem to have the same depth and breadth of "experts" and b) video clips often autoplay on this site but I think immamac may have fixed the sound issue for when they do autoplay.

Others maybe could chime in, but the main subreddits I know are:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/

The upside to reddit is that it has moderators weeding out the troll accounts.

 

Brat, here's the video from above with the Russian POW trying to trick his Ukrainian captors by hiding a grenade. It's also translated but the fucking font is in white, which makes it harder to read against the background.

 

edit: tagging you too @Scheiss Meister

Edited by bolverk
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1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

None of these twitter video posts are opening for me.

 

53 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Because twitters is dying.  I can't see any of them on my phone.  On the laptop I can see them.  

You have to have a twitter account and be logged in to see tweets now

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The other issue is that a lot of the Ukrainian war bloggers (and for that matter Russian) use Telegram as an alternative to both twitter and youtube.  My general instinct is to stay away from Telegram given everything I've read about it, and some of the groups it seems to cater to.  Something new is bound to emerge is the super genius keeps it up with twitter.  

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6 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

The other issue is that a lot of the Ukrainian war bloggers (and for that matter Russian) use Telegram as an alternative to both twitter and youtube.  My general instinct is to stay away from Telegram given everything I've read about it, and some of the groups it seems to cater to.  Something new is bound to emerge is the super genius keeps it up with twitter.  

Same. Telegram seems super shady to me as well, whether that's warranted or not, I don't know. Getting info on this conflict and, let's face it, "war porn" are the only reasons I still have an account with Twitter.

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25 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Same. Telegram seems super shady to me as well, whether that's warranted or not, I don't know. Getting info on this conflict and, let's face it, "war porn" are the only reasons I still have an account with Twitter.

I think it's probably a good rule of thumb to steer clear of anything the Russians seem to favor.  But maybe that's me.  

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3 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If a tweeted video will play inside the imbed of a post, I can still view it. I don’t know how Twitter/user selects which videos will play and which will open a new browser tab.

Mature-content videos require you to view them on twitter.com

And sometimes random videos that have no mature content....require you to view them on twitter.

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Medvedev says they'll make the war with Ukraine permanent. Because Russia literally justified why Ukraine should be in NATO.

Bold Strategy Cotton GIF by MOODMAN

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-03-23/h_de2af2e2df958e67ae7ac262cf50a436

Quote

Russia is "threatened" by the potential for Ukraine to join NATO, Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, claimed on Sunday.

“We (Russia) have always asked for only one thing — to take into account our concerns and not to invite the former parts of our country into NATO,” Medvedev, a former Russian president and prime minister, wrote in an article for the state-run Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper.
“Especially those with whom we have territorial disputes. Therefore, our goal is simple — to eliminate the threat of Ukraine's membership in NATO.” 

Quote

Part of Russia’s premise for its invasion of Ukraine was to fend off NATO from expanding close to its borders.

And Medvedev said Moscow is ready to deliberately make the current conflict a permanent one, because "this is a matter of Russia's existence."  

Wagner suspending recruiting efforts for a month.  NCAA sanctions on the horizon?

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-03-23/h_3cec7591d9d0c2616bea85ad4538743c

Quote

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private military company the Wagner Group is suspending its recruitment efforts for one month as it moves operations to Belarus, a Telegram channel affiliated with Prigozhin said Sunday. 

“Due to the temporary non-participation of Wagner PMC in a special military operation and moving to the Republic of Belarus, we are temporarily suspending the work of regional recruitment centers for PMC Wagner for a period of 1 month,” stated the Telegram channel, which is run by one of Wagner’s employees. 

 

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9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Medvedev says they'll make the war with Ukraine permanent. Because Russia literally justified why Ukraine should be in NATO.

Bold Strategy Cotton GIF by MOODMAN

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-03-23/h_de2af2e2df958e67ae7ac262cf50a436

Wagner suspending recruiting efforts for a month.  NCAA sanctions on the horizon?

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-03-23/h_3cec7591d9d0c2616bea85ad4538743c

 

Wagner was giving out gold Trans Am's?  

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So I was looking at the deep state map and got to wondering, would it be possible for the Ukrainians to use a boring machine to tunnel under the Dnipro River?  I don't know a ton about this sort of process but with the benefit of google, from what I understand some of these machines can do 60 feet a day, and even the slower about 30 feet a day.  With that in mind, I started looking at spots along the river that are both not too wide and seemingly sparsely defended.  One of the challenges would be how to hide the initial set up, I'm thinking a big farm house or commercial barn near the river bank, with a target on the other side of a similar nature; even better an existing rock quarry.  The next challenge would be figuring out how to remove the material as quietly as possible, I'm guessing at night, and that would be slow going so as not to arise suspicion with heavy equipment coming and going.  There is a rock quarry to the east of Nikopol, and due south is the river and subsequently rural area across the river, which would make material disposal easier.  The other aspect of using a quarry would be the ease of concrete production.  

In order for that scenario to work, you'd need to tunnel at least 10 mi, which if my math is right would be somewhere near 6 to 9 months to complete.  It's admittedly a crazy idea, and I have no reason to believe this has happened at all.  However, the Ukrainians do have heavy mining experience and I would guess none of this would be technically too far fetched for them to achieve.  I also don't think it would have been terribly difficult to sneak a big boring machine into the country given all the other stuff that's been sent in.  

Again, I don't know a ton about this sort of stuff, perhaps some of you do.  Could it even be done?

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For those who say the Ukrainian offensive - which requires breaching 4 distinct obstacle belts & fighting a dug-in enemy - is going too slow, my only advice: try it sometime…it’s beyond extremely difficult. As @jimsciutto said, visit WWI battlefields; trenches are still there!

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-right-be-cautious-with-counter-offensive-top-nato-official-says-2023-07-03/

Governments such as Georgia’s and Hungary’s, which seem to be banking on Putin winning the war, are taking a massive gamble with the future position of their nations.

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54 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

So I was looking at the deep state map and got to wondering, would it be possible for the Ukrainians to use a boring machine to tunnel under the Dnipro River?  I don't know a ton about this sort of process but with the benefit of google, from what I understand some of these machines can do 60 feet a day, and even the slower about 30 feet a day.  With that in mind, I started looking at spots along the river that are both not too wide and seemingly sparsely defended.  One of the challenges would be how to hide the initial set up, I'm thinking a big farm house or commercial barn near the river bank, with a target on the other side of a similar nature; even better an existing rock quarry.  The next challenge would be figuring out how to remove the material as quietly as possible, I'm guessing at night, and that would be slow going so as not to arise suspicion with heavy equipment coming and going.  There is a rock quarry to the east of Nikopol, and due south is the river and subsequently rural area across the river, which would make material disposal easier.  The other aspect of using a quarry would be the ease of concrete production.  

In order for that scenario to work, you'd need to tunnel at least 10 mi, which if my math is right would be somewhere near 6 to 9 months to complete.  It's admittedly a crazy idea, and I have no reason to believe this has happened at all.  However, the Ukrainians do have heavy mining experience and I would guess none of this would be technically too far fetched for them to achieve.  I also don't think it would have been terribly difficult to sneak a big boring machine into the country given all the other stuff that's been sent in.  

Again, I don't know a ton about this sort of stuff, perhaps some of you do.  Could it even be done?

You watch the great escape recently or something?

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25 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

You watch the great escape recently or something?

That's a good one, but I was thinking something of a larger scale, to get heavy equipment, i.e. armor in behind the enemy.   Any which way they could do that without going thru the defensive fortifications would be nice.  

If I am doing this correctly, something along the lines of South Austin's Mom's vagina (sorry, man).  Bottom line, if they can get a breach with some sort of mass force behind the Russian lines, the Russian's are fucked in the south.  

I was actually thinking about the attempted breach at the siege of Richmond by the union.  While ultimately a failure, an interesting idea.  

Again, I have no reason to believe that any of this has actually happened.  

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Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov)
Ukrainians are a very hospitable nation. As you can see in the photo, the design of the Ukrainian-made 155 mm self-propelled howitzer "Bohdana" features a comfortable table for the crew to enjoy a fine meal.
We will have more of these guns!

F0HPX_7WIAMSpeM.thumb.jpg.df09db209072452d5b41a2270f61f35f.jpg

----

(I'm not linking to twitter any more, just quoting)

----

 
Surovikin still has not been seen and his location is unknown. Today's video with Shoigu didn't feature neither head of Russian General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov nor his deputy Sergey Surovikin.
 
VCHK_OGPU Telegram channel reports that the details and reasons of "measures" taken regarding Surovikin have finally emerged. Reports on him (allegedly voluntarily) have been written by two people very close to him, including his personal assistant. In them the military claim that Surovikin had good relations with Prigozhing before and during the march to Moscow, and supported head of Wagner PMC in that. They also reported the details of the relationship between Surovikin and Prigozhin. Shoigu put those reports into action, FSB, military prosecutor's office and other structures were involved into the appointed investigation of the data presented. There is no official investigation, but Surovikin is questioned on everything the military reported.
 
Surovikin has not been detained officially but he is kept in isolation for the duration of investigation - allegedly voluntarily. His relatives are promised he will be home soon. It is expected he might return on 4th July, for the birthday of his wife Anna.
Image
 
----
 
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Re Georgia and Hungary- Are they betting on Russia winning the war? Or are they just betting on a Putin-ruled Russia continuing to be a strong player in the region after the war ends somehow? That’s not a bad or dumb bet, and it involves some realpolitik.

My prediction, BTW…and it’s almost certainly wrong, we’ll just see HOW wrong: the counteroffensive slowly re-captures territory lost in the east, and importantly, down to the Sea of Azov, cutting the land route to Crimea. Ukraine then makes life shitty for Crimea. An armistice is signed that has Ukraine keep what it has recaptured, and Russia keeps Crimea. Massive military buildup on both sides of the demarcation line. Requires some sort of international peacekeeping force to keep fighting from flaring up again. The Ukraine Russia border becomes Europe’s Korean border.

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10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Re Georgia and Hungary- Are they betting on Russia winning the war? Or are they just betting on a Putin-ruled Russia continuing to be a strong player in the region after the war ends somehow? That’s not a bad or dumb bet, and it involves some realpolitik.

My prediction, BTW…and it’s almost certainly wrong, we’ll just see HOW wrong: the counteroffensive slowly re-captures territory lost in the east, and importantly, down to the Sea of Azov, cutting the land route to Crimea. Ukraine then makes life shitty for Crimea. An armistice is signed that has Ukraine keep what it has recaptured, and Russia keeps Crimea. Massive military buildup on both sides of the demarcation line. Requires some sort of international peacekeeping force to keep fighting from flaring up again. The Ukraine Russia border becomes Europe’s Korean border.

As much as I'd like to say it's all or nothing, this is a very likely end game scenario.  

What I really don't get is Orban and his continuing fealty to Putin and Russia.  Even in the best case scenario for him, Russia is still going to be very isolated and generally only able to partially help him like in the past.  This seems short sighted to me on his part.  Georgia makes a bit more sense, especially given their geography (even though they have their own axe to grind).  

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15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Re Georgia and Hungary- Are they betting on Russia winning the war? Or are they just betting on a Putin-ruled Russia continuing to be a strong player in the region after the war ends somehow? That’s not a bad or dumb bet, and it involves some realpolitik.

My prediction, BTW…and it’s almost certainly wrong, we’ll just see HOW wrong: the counteroffensive slowly re-captures territory lost in the east, and importantly, down to the Sea of Azov, cutting the land route to Crimea. Ukraine then makes life shitty for Crimea. An armistice is signed that has Ukraine keep what it has recaptured, and Russia keeps Crimea. Massive military buildup on both sides of the demarcation line. Requires some sort of international peacekeeping force to keep fighting from flaring up again. The Ukraine Russia border becomes Europe’s Korean border.

I hate it, but I think this is correct.  I also think that Russia will continue to attack Ukraine regardless of treaties, agreements, or peacekeepers.  Drones, missiles, cyber attacks, and the time honored practice of buying politicians.  Peace will only be a relative state.

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16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Re Georgia and Hungary- Are they betting on Russia winning the war? Or are they just betting on a Putin-ruled Russia continuing to be a strong player in the region after the war ends somehow? That’s not a bad or dumb bet, and it involves some realpolitik.

My prediction, BTW…and it’s almost certainly wrong, we’ll just see HOW wrong: the counteroffensive slowly re-captures territory lost in the east, and importantly, down to the Sea of Azov, cutting the land route to Crimea. Ukraine then makes life shitty for Crimea. An armistice is signed that has Ukraine keep what it has recaptured, and Russia keeps Crimea. Massive military buildup on both sides of the demarcation line. Requires some sort of international peacekeeping force to keep fighting from flaring up again. The Ukraine Russia border becomes Europe’s Korean border.

If Ukraine destroys the Kerch bridge. How would Russia continue to supply Crimea? Sevastopol?

I think it’s going to take a while before Ukraine reaches Crimea. The next 6 months are going to suck 

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I think you all are off on Georgia betting on Putin.

The Georgians were made to be sacrificial lambs to Putin's power in '08. They got beat down pretty hard, lost some territory, and have been trying to deal with a fucking lunatic that keeps threatening to take the rest of their country if they dont accept Russian rule in S Ossetia. 

 

The people of Georgia are getting pretty fired tired of the Russians who are avoiding the draft, pouring into Georgia,  its caused the cost of living to skyrocket in Tblisi and almost all other cities in Georgia, as tens of thousands of unexpected Russians try to rent apartments.   

 

There are several English speaking Russians who have prominant youtube channels that all fled Russia EARLY int he war- most ended up in Georgia and keep talking about how tough its been finding a place to stay and keep up with being able to get food- even with them getting a decent amount of youtube money (now that they are out of russia)

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9 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

If Ukraine destroys the Kerch bridge. How would Russia continue to supply Crimea? Sevastopol?

I think it’s going to take a while before Ukraine reaches Crimea. The next 6 months are going to suck 

The last 18 months have sucked. But they keep going. 

I realize we are only seeing the smallest of sample sizes and I get that we probably see what we want to see but these recent videos show such a stark difference in the training and capability of the men on the ground. As long as the west is committed to supplying and training I really don't see how the orcs will survive. Unless it just becomes a numbers game.  

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I think you all are off on Georgia betting on Putin.
The Georgians were made to be sacrificial lambs to Putin's power in '08. They got beat down pretty hard, lost some territory, and have been trying to deal with a fucking lunatic that keeps threatening to take the rest of their country if they dont accept Russian rule in S Ossetia. 
 
The people of Georgia are getting pretty fired tired of the Russians who are avoiding the draft, pouring into Georgia,  its caused the cost of living to skyrocket in Tblisi and almost all other cities in Georgia, as tens of thousands of unexpected Russians try to rent apartments.   
 
There are several English speaking Russians who have prominant youtube channels that all fled Russia EARLY int he war- most ended up in Georgia and keep talking about how tough its been finding a place to stay and keep up with being able to get food- even with them getting a decent amount of youtube money (now that they are out of russia)

Oh, I agree that Georgia has zero love for Putin Russia. I just think there’s a very good chance they realize that the much bigger and stronger guy they hate is going to continue to be their neighbor, so they should make the best of it. Pragmatic.
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The last 18 months have sucked. But they keep going. 
I realize we are only seeing the smallest of sample sizes and I get that we probably see what we want to see but these recent videos show such a stark difference in the training and capability of the men on the ground. As long as the west is committed to supplying and training I really don't see how the orcs will survive. Unless it just becomes a numbers game.  

It IS a numbers game. Putin is betting on Russia having more disposable orcs than Ukraine has bullets. It’s not a stupid bet.
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Here's Michael Clarke partially validating my post from yesterday regarding an update on the conflict.

A couple of things I'd add to the video. One, the forces in Kreminna that Clarke refers to as a buildup still don't have any overall assault training. Until the Russians show they can actually take ground and hold it, I don't care how many troops they build up. The only time they've done that since their initial success was in the meat grinder of Bakhmut, and that was Wagner. 

Two, in Bakhmut there is progress being made in the north and south, although Clarke only mentions taking the high ground in the south. Ukraine is also in the process of taking the high ground in the north, too. That's not enough by itself, but it sure makes the continued occupation of the rubble of Bakhmut very deadly for the troops there. Lots of Russian milbloggers complaining about the lack of a strategic reason to keep Bakhmut, just like many Westerners whined about Ukraine holding it. It's a fucking death trap.

Three, he lumps together what are really two offensives into one in the southern portion. One is in the direction of Tokmak. The other is in the direction of Mariupol. I haven't seen much sign of progress towards Mariupol, although Ukraine seems to be making penetration over a wide area. Not very deep, though.

In the direction of Tokmak, the fighting is in Robotyne. The Ukrainian defense spokesperson just today relayed there's some really good news on the southern front but she can't relay anything about it, yet. My hope is that there's some kind of breakthrough in Robotyne. But we'll see. 

Four, the crossing to the left bank of the Dnipro still appears active. The last I saw there are about 70 Ukrainian infantry hanging on there. I don't see anyway a large force can regularly be supplied. But simply posing a threat to Russian forces with a beach head is significant.

When Russian troops try to attack, they come under withering Ukrainian artillery fire. A couple of Russian BTRs were recently destroyed. Counter battery is apparently making short work of the Russian artillery in range trying to repel the Ukrainian force. I would not want to be one of those infantry that are basically there to draw Russia's ire. But they do serve a purpose by remaining, even as targets. ]

Anyway, it's a short 2:30 minute video. I always like Michael Clarke, so it was a fun listen for me.

 

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