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23 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


She might have tears now but she’ll quickly be filled with rage. Hell has no fury like a pissed off Eastern European woman !!!

 

stone cold killers 

If we drop in a division of pissed off abuelitas armed with weapons grade chanclas this shit would be over in hours.

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44 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

@Shady Ray comments?

 

To say that the current government is falling into line due to a true change of heart is completely unknown at this time. It could be a couple of things. What is clear is that they are not operating together and are flailing to grab something that doesn’t paint them in a light of being complicit with Russia…as if that train hasn’t left the station already. The German government is being absolutely blasted on all sides and Scholz is not one who knows how to handle it the way Merkel would.
 

As of the time of my last post this morning, I couldn’t possibly keep up with all the different statements, u-turns, climb-downs that are currently going on in Berlin. As well as arguments between the governing parties, and within the actual parties themselves. Bases are yelling at leadership, leadership is positioning against members of their bases. And it hasn’t been reported on, but I can say for an absolute fact that there have been early discussions today on an emergency moratorium on the planned closing of the 3 remaining nuclear plants in Germany. I know this. Of course, that is a drop in the bucket given the energy crisis that the country is facing, but it is significant in the sense that the Government fully anticipates the gas and coal deliveries to immediately stop in the very near future. Now whether that is a result of a potential SWIFT removal or just a byproduct of the war, who knows….but it is clearly something that is being anticipated.
 

And it should be worth noting…as of the time I started writing this post, which is 5:40 PM CET, Germany has not agreed on the SWIFT piece (at least not that I have seen). That is something that is floating around the media, but FDP Chief and head of the German Finance Ministry, Christian Lindner, said last night that he would “be open to it if it could be done correctly”, but Scholz has not stated this. 
 

So, in that light, what might be happening here is that the Government is going to give on everything (the big German Industry group that backs NS2 just a few minutes ago made a statement that they see it as permanently dead, and not just “on hold”, which is essentially the final death blow), including weapons, but is doing everything it can NOT to give on SWIFT. The government knows that SWIFT will end up killing the economy here and will certainly result in the end of Russian gas and coal. 
 

Mrs. Shady is smart as hell, but doesn’t give much of a fuck about politics. But she is very, very typical German and essentially has the mainstream centrist views of a successful professional, so I always see her as a pretty good guide to their thinking. We were just now talking about snap election procedures within the Bundestag and how that would possibly play out down the road, and she said, “Meh. It’s too early for them. It would be just too much uncertainty given what is going on everywhere else…they can’t afford to add that on the people at the moment.” Before I could even comment in response she then said, “….oh, well unless the power goes…then they are all fucked.”
 

I think she is right…it would take a while to play out given the German constitution, but the wheels towards new elections would start turning if the power goes.
 

So in that light, I think the Government knows it is behind the international momentum and Scholz is making a last Hail Mary not to have to go to the Swift option…because it is going to absolutely change all equations within German politics.


And as an aside…there is a weird, weird feeling here at the moment. It is wayyyyyy too quiet coming out of Berlin. I think they know that this thing is about to expand and that we might be facing a man who is fully prepared to go out with a bang. Lots of uncertainty in the air and a lot of nerves.

Edited by Shady Ray
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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Ukraine govt needs to start offering advice to their citizens on how to semi-permanently disable Russian vehicles that they encounter. If it’s abandoned due to lack of fuel, let the empty tank ultimately cost Russia an entire vehicle.

Pretty sure they twitted out yesterday to put sugar in local fuel stocks and Russian fuel tanks.

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6 minutes ago, pacman said:

 

Huge if Turkey is finally coming around

Zelensky requested. Turkey said no due to international pact

https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-cannot-stop-russian-warships-accessing-black-sea-says-foreign-minister-2022-02-25/

Turkey cannot stop Russian warships accessing the Black Sea via its straits, as Ukraine has requested, due to a clause in an international pact that allows vessels to return to their home base, the Turkish foreign minister said on Friday.

Edited by Neonmoon
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Even Putin's buddies are telling him to fuck off now.  Pres. of Kazakhstan (Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev), just told Putin to eat shit when asked to help supply more troops.  This is a huge blow, as Kazakhstan is one of the largest of the former SSR's and is a key location for Russia to move/stage for their eastern fronts.  This guy, a tight Putin ally, not only has seen the light (a) that this invasion is idiotic, and b) former SSR's are now likely fodder for Mad Vlad), so he not only told him to fuck off, but fails to recognize the two breakaway republics as Russian, and acknowledged Ukraine as a country.  This is pretty stunning, as Kazakhstan is no Western paradise (just last week they ordered shoot-to-kill during a protest on an unrelated issue).  When your BBF tells you you're an asshole, well, things aren't working out so well.  (the article is a little long but good - also covers Russian kinda-buddies Hungary, Czech Rep., and Romania saying in this case, fuck off.  You're an asshole and we're against you on this).

Spoiler

Vladimir Putin’s miscalculations in Ukraine have multiplied in the last two days. In the first place, the Russian army appears to be struggling to overcome the unexpectedly fierce resistance from fully mobilized Ukrainians, despite massive numerical and technological advantages. At the same time, allies whom Putin assiduously courted over the last several years have done an abrupt about-face, blasting Putin publicly over his naked aggression in Europe.

None of these backfires is more surprising than in Kazakhstan. Putin just got done rescuing President Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev from a serious uprising six weeks ago, sending Russian army formations to put down demonstrators in Almaty. With his invasion bogging down, Putin asked Tokayev for more troops to support the Ukraine invasion.

Not only did Tokayev refuse, he went further in refusing to recognize the “independent” states Putin set up in the Donbas:

Kazakhstan, one of Russia’s closest allies and a southern neighbor, is denying a request for its troops to join the offensive in Ukraine, officials said Friday.

Additionally, the former Soviet republic said it is not recognizing the Russia-created breakaway republics upheld by Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, as a pretext for its aggression in Ukraine. …

The surprising development from a traditional ally of Russia has the support of the United States.

“We welcome Kazakhstan’s announcement that they will not recognize the LPR and DPR,” the National Security Council said in a statement. “We also welcome Kazakhstan’s refusal to send its forces to join Putin’s war in Ukraine.”

That’s a stunning flip for Tokayev, and a real problem for Putin on an entirely different front. Kazakhstan is a strategic ally for Putin in Central Asia; its size and position allows Putin to flex his muscle from China to Iran and Pakistan. If the invasion of Ukraine has forced the scales to fall from Tokayev’s eyes about Putin’s ambitions for former Soviet republics, Putin’s reach and influence just took a very large hit in an area that might matter to him more than his western frontier, strategically speaking. And it’s tough to imagine that Tokayev fails to recognize the threat that Putin represents to those former Soviet republics, even with Putin’s rescue last month.

Nor is Tokayev the only friendly country that Putin has alienated with this move. Hungary and Czech Republic leaders had been sympathetic to Putin and growing more restive within the EU, offering Putin a chance to split the Western alliance. Those efforts also came to an abrupt halt yesterday:

For some of the countries that fled the Soviet bloc following a series of anti-communist revolutions more than 30 years ago, footage of tanks and troops rolling in to punish a nation trying to pursue its own independent course looks painfully familiar.

Two until now major pro-Russian voices in the European Union, Czech President Milos Zeman and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, didn’t mince their words in criticizing Moscow’s most aggressive action since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

Their countries experienced comparable brutality — the Czech Republic, as part of Czechoslovakia, in 1968 and Hungary in 1956.

Zeman called Thursday’s invasion “an unprovoked act of aggression.” …

Until just days ago, Zeman was insisting that the Russians wouldn’t attack Ukraine because “they aren’t lunatics to launch an operation that would be more damaging for them than beneficial.”

“I admit I was wrong,” he said Thursday.

Orban was no less direct, and Bulgaria and Romania followed suit:

Hungary has historically deeply distrusted Moscow, which ordered the brutal repression of an anti-Soviet uprising in 1956. But Orban in recent years has pursued a diplomatic and economic strategy he calls “Eastern Opening,” which favors closer ties with countries to the east, and in his frequent battles with the EU has called the 27-nation bloc an oppressive imperial power similar to Hungary’s former Soviet occupiers.

But on Thursday, Orban was clear in his condemnation of the Kremlin.

“Russia attacked Ukraine this morning with military force,” Orban said in a video on Facebook. “Together with our European Union and NATO allies, we condemn Russia’s military action.”

“Hungary’s position is clear: we stand by Ukraine, we stand by Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty,” his Foreign Minister Peter Szijijarto said.

Romania has opened its borders to Ukrainian refugees and has eliminated all of the red tape of processing to keep them safe. Moldova has done the same,despite its former friendliness to Moscow and the dangerous position in which Putin’s invasion obviously places them.

It’s so bad, in fact, that Putin’s propaganda outlets in the West appear to be running out of useful fools:

All of this prompts a question of whether Putin can outlast Volodymyr Zelensky rather than the other way around. If his military gets humiliated any further, the threats to NATO are going to look entirely delusional, putting Russian security at a decades-long low. How long will the Russian oligarchs stand for that kind of isolation, embarrassment, and oppression? Scales should be falling from eyes in Moscow, too.
https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2022/02/26/kazakhstan-to-putin-pound-sand-n451388

 

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Also, how the hell has Zelensky managed to keep himself alive while posting on twitter? I think a lot of the veracity of Ukrainian resistance is being drawn from him, you have to think the Russians are hunting him pretty heavily right now, after the last few days it would be a huge blow to the UA to lose him. The guy has HUGE nuts though he’s staying in Kyiv and he doesn’t appear to be hiding.

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13 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Russian tanks have been shit in recent conflicts and require enormous gas supplies. If Russia is thinking it can take Kiev with tanks it's going to fail miserably. They have proven weak spots in close combats situations.

As with many of their aircraft, they give them new designations without changing all that much.  The T-80 is a renamed T-64, the T-90 is a renamed T-72.  Both basically Vietnam-era tanks. Their latest, the T-14, is not in production on a large scale.  Again, their economy.

And, probably to prop up their economy, they've exported a shit-ton of their production, probably to the detriment of their own arsenal.

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1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Do not love this analysis when it comes to Czech. The Czech Republic was enemy number two before the invasion. In fact, Russia had two countries on its “unfriendly nations” list— the U.S. and Czech Republic. Russian GRU blew up an ammo dump here in 2014 (arms going to Ukraine/Balkans) and their role was uncovered in 2021, the Czechs basically shut their embassy down. They’d been foaming at the mouth and were one of a few nations to donate arms to Ukraine BEFORE things went hot (4k artillery shells). 

Remember, Presidents are figureheads in parliamentary republics. The Czech government was always on the right side here although it’s nice that Zeman came around finally. 

Thanks for this post on the Czechs.  I was like wtf is this guy fucking talking about.  Is he thinking Chechnya when speaking about the Czech Republic because he sounds like a LT Col on CNN who was in charge of the mess decks trying to speak Eastern European policy.

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2 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

Also, how the hell has Zelensky managed to keep himself alive while posting on twitter? I think a lot of the veracity of Ukrainian resistance is being drawn from him, you have to think the Russians are hunting him pretty heavily right now, after the last few days it would be a huge blow to the UA to lose him. The guy has HUGE nuts though he’s staying in Kyiv and he doesn’t appear to be hiding.

He’s headed for martyrdom and I think it’s going to send the Ukrainien people to 11. He’s playing his part beautifully. 

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1 minute ago, BrickTop said:

Also, how the hell has Zelensky managed to keep himself alive while posting on twitter? I think a lot of the veracity of Ukrainian resistance is being drawn from him, you have to think the Russians are hunting him pretty heavily right now, after the last few days it would be a huge blow to the UA to lose him. The guy has HUGE nuts though he’s staying in Kyiv and he doesn’t appear to be hiding.

If this guy survives this he will live a charmed life. Even if he doesn’t he is guaranteed the capital to be renamed Zelenskyberg, his face on currency, Time’s Person of the Year, Nobel Prize, Guggenheim fellow, MacArthur’s Genius Grant, Pulitzer Prize winner whatever.

This guy is inspiring and awesome is what I’m saying.

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2 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

Also, how the hell has Zelensky managed to keep himself alive while posting on twitter? I think a lot of the veracity of Ukrainian resistance is being drawn from him, you have to think the Russians are hunting him pretty heavily right now, after the last few days it would be a huge blow to the UA to lose him. The guy has HUGE nuts though he’s staying in Kyiv and he doesn’t appear to be hiding.

Zelenskyy is in the government quarter, core of Kyiv and he thinks it’s important to be there. I am sure they film, move, post, then move again to another secure location. Posts likely even sent via Signal or other secure app outside of Ukraine to a dip mission for the actual posting mechanics. 

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1 hour ago, GabrielsHorn said:

also, can’t be said enough - a modern invading army allowing people to film them invading and troop movements is so undisciplined. 

I certainly hope all the civilians filming troop movements have their location settings on.

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3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Fuck. Just had a really hard conversation with the boy. Mom had to lay down the law, and forbid him from going to the Poland Ukraine border.

I followed with a text telling him I understand what he wants to do, but he needs to stay safe. His reply:

“I’m not playing solider, it’s not right to sit on my ass and live a fun cushy care free life in Berlin when there are people just like me a couple hundred miles away who need something to eat or a place to stay. I understand the worry but there are also moms in Ukraine who want their kids out of harms way. I won’t go near the border, but I’ve sent in an application to the Polish government. I added special instructions not to be near the border, but there are potatoes to be peeled, sacks to be unloaded from trucks, tents to be pitched and shit to be done in other places. If I need to go to Warsaw and plunge toilets in a refugee center, I will.”

I don’t know how to feel about this.

Feel good. He’s doing his part to help those in need and appears to understand to stay clear of Ukraine itself. 

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Fuck. Just had a really hard conversation with the boy. Mom had to lay down the law, and forbid him from going to the Poland Ukraine border.

I followed with a text telling him I understand what he wants to do, but he needs to stay safe. His reply:

“I’m not playing solider, it’s not right to sit on my ass and live a fun cushy care free life in Berlin when there are people just like me a couple hundred miles away who need something to eat or a place to stay. I understand the worry but there are also moms in Ukraine who want their kids out of harms way. I won’t go near the border, but I’ve sent in an application to the Polish government. I added special instructions not to be near the border, but there are potatoes to be peeled, sacks to be unloaded from trucks, tents to be pitched and shit to be done in other places. If I need to go to Warsaw and plunge toilets in a refugee center, I will.”

I don’t know how to feel about this.
You should feel a little proud. You've obviously raised a decent human. And I suppose you haven't told him about the ledge yet.
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21 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

Go read about the Chechen second war and in particular the battle of Grozny. That’s where this likely has to head. 

I mentioned it earlier:  the Russians are facing a bunch of bad choices here: surround Khiv and starve it, go full Grozny, or eventually pull back.  
 

They thought they were getting Crimea in 2014, now they are facing an escalating situation which is looking like they will have to commit wide spread atrocities against people who look exactly like them, and as posted above about German, will force the hands of the Germans to delink their economies, while forcing them into a lopsided and unfavorable economic arrangement with China, who you never want to be on the short side of the negotiating table with.

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27 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

Go read about the Chechen second war and in particular the battle of Grozny. That’s where this likely has to head. 

Except this is Europe and Ukraine is receiving aid and the world is watching. Sadly no one gave a shit about the Chechen wars.  
 

you can’t straight analogy this stuff it doesn’t work. Yeah Russian will become more brutal, but they are already losing more than expected they will next level this shit but it’s not going to play out the same.  
 

we are all worried about nukes but Russia is worried about NATO escalation as well. It’s just not  a 1:1 analogy it’s not going to be ezra eh the same.  I really don’t think the world will tolerate war crimes seem by all on SM. I just don’t see it happening. Protests world wide will occur and public sentiment will change and yeah it will get dicey but this will be different.

Edited by troph
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6 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

And SIAP, but the SPD has now formally called on Schröder to formally sever all business ties with Russia. That is how toxic Russia support is at the moment. This markes the de-russification of the SPD, which has been in place since the early 1970s.

 

Putin has in 3 days self-inflicted a fatal shotgun blast into the head of all the political equity that he had in Germany that would have typically taken years to occur naturally.


This will go down as one of the worst, worst miscalculations that a autocrat has made since...well, the last time a dude with an army tried to head through Ukraine with a conquering itch.

What is the SPD and who is Schroeder? I’m ignorant 

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23 hours ago, Nivek said:


Not irreparable. But it will take a concerted effort to bump education as a priority, enact the fairness doctrine, and weed out traitors pushing propaganda and public shaming/exile of them.

History says irreparable. I suggest everyone that wants to remain feeling 'free' find a way to make a lot of money...  And for some of us, it might not be enough.

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10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Fuck. Just had a really hard conversation with the boy. Mom had to lay down the law, and forbid him from going to the Poland Ukraine border.

I followed with a text telling him I understand what he wants to do, but he needs to stay safe. His reply:

“I’m not playing solider, it’s not right to sit on my ass and live a fun cushy care free life in Berlin when there are people just like me a couple hundred miles away who need something to eat or a place to stay. I understand the worry but there are also moms in Ukraine who want their kids out of harms way. I won’t go near the border, but I’ve sent in an application to the Polish government. I added special instructions not to be near the border, but there are potatoes to be peeled, sacks to be unloaded from trucks, tents to be pitched and shit to be done in other places. If I need to go to Warsaw and plunge toilets in a refugee center, I will.”

I don’t know how to feel about this.

As others have said, proud of the man your son has become. There is time to be the worried parent, but that shouldn’t take away from some sense of pride as to his reasoning. 

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Just now, Neonmoon said:

What is the SPD and who is Schroeder? I’m ignorant 

Social Democratic Party of Deutschland. Gerhard Schröder is the former SPD Chancellor of Germany (the dude that was opposed to Iraq War 2).

 

He left office and became the head of Nord Stream AG and is chairman of the board of Rosneft, Russia's largest oil company.

 

He is the reason NS1 exisists and is very, very close with Putin. Putin was at (one of) his weddings. They used to call him Audi Man, because he had been married four times (4 rings)...now they call him Olympic Man, because he is on wife no 5.

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Don’t know if this is accurate:

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, munitions, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. Many of the entries listed under 'abandoned' are currently located in no-man's land that is neither under control of Russia nor Ukraine, and will later be captured by whoever takes control of that particular area.

(Click on the numbers to get a picture of each individual captured or destroyed vehicle)

Russia - 107, of which: destroyed: 42, damaged: 6, abandoned: 10, captured: 49


Tanks (7, of which destroyed: 3, damaged: 1, abandoned: 1, captured: 2)

2 T-72B: (1, destroyed) (2, abandoned)
1 T-72B Obr. 1989: (1, captured)
2 T-72B3: (1, destroyed) (2, damaged)
1 T-80BV: (1, captured)
1 T-80BVM: (1, destroyed)

Armoured Fighting Vehicles (7, of which destroyed: 3, captured: 4)

4 MT-LB: (1, destroyed) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured)
1 MT-LB with ZU-23 AA gun: (1, destroyed)
1 MT-LBu: (1, captured)
1 9P149 Shturm-S ATGM carrier: (1, destroyed)
1 R-149MA1 unified command and staff vehicle: (1, captured)

Infantry Fighting Vehicles (11 of which destroyed: 3, abandoned: 5, captured: 3)

9 BMP-2: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, captured) (4, captured) (5, captured) (6, damaged and abandoned) (7 and 8, damaged and abandoned) (9, abandoned)
1 BMD-2: (1, destroyed)
1 BMD-4: (1, abandoned)

Mine-resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles (2, of which captured: 2)

2 KamAZ-63968 Typhoon: (1, captured) (2, captured)

Infantry Mobility Vehicles (7, of which destroyed: 3, damaged: 1, captured: 3)

6 GAZ Tigr-M: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, damaged) (5, captured) (6, captured)
1 Iveco LMV 'Rys': (1, captured)

Communications Vehicles (2, of which abandoned: 1, captured: 1)

1 R-419L1 communication station: (1, abandoned)
1 KamAZ 6x6: (1, damaged and captured)

Engineering Vehicles (12, of which destroyed: 3, captured: 9)

1 BREM-K armoured recovery vehicle: (1, captured)
1 IMR-2 combat engineering vehicle: (1, destroyed)
5 TMM-3 bridge layer: (1, destroyed) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured) (5, captured)
3 KamAZ-5350 with EOV-3523 excavator: (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured)
1 KamAZ-5350 with crane: (1, destroyed)
1 Ural-4320 Wrecker: (1, damaged and captured)

Anti-tank Guided Missiles (3, of which captured: 3)

3 9M113 Konkurs: (1, 2 and 3, captured)

Mortars (1, of which captured: 1)

1 120mm mortar: (1, captured)

Artillery (4, of which destroyed: 2, captured: 2)

4 152mm 2A65 Msta-B howitzer: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, damaged and captured) (4, captured)

Multiple Rocket Launchers (7, of which destroyed: 3, captured: 4)

7 122mm BM-21 'Grad': (1, destroyed) (2 and 3, destroyed) (4, captured) (5, 6 and 7, captured)

Surface-To-Air Missile Systems (3, of which destroyed: 1, damaged: 1, abandoned: 1)

1 9A310M1-2 TELAR (launcher and radar for Buk-M1-2): (1, damaged)
1 Tor-M2: (1, destroyed)
1 2K22M1 Tunguska: (1, damaged and abandoned)

Aircraft (3, of which destroyed: 3)

1 Su-30SM: (1, destroyed on the ground)
1 Su-25 strike aircraft: (1, destroyed)
1 An-26 transport aircraft: (1, destroyed)

Helicopters (2, of which destroyed: 1, damaged: 1)

2 Ka-52 'Alligator': (1, destroyed) (2, damaged)

Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (37, of which destroyed: 17, damaged: 2, abandoned: 5, captured: 13)

1 GAZ-66: (1, captured)
10 Ural-4320: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, damaged) (6, damaged and abandoned) (7, captured) (8, captured) (9, captured) (10, captured)
19 KamAZ 6x6: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed) (8, destroyed) (9, destroyed) (10, damaged) (11, abandoned) (12, captured) (13, captured) (14, captured) (15, captured) (16 and 17, captured) (18, with ZU-23 AA gun, captured) (19, with ZU-23 AA gun, captured)
4 KamAZ-6350 8x8: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, damaged and captured) (4, damaged and captured)
2 Unknown truck: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed)

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

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22 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Zelensky requested. Turkey said no due to international pact

https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-cannot-stop-russian-warships-accessing-black-sea-says-foreign-minister-2022-02-25/

Turkey cannot stop Russian warships accessing the Black Sea via its straits, as Ukraine has requested, due to a clause in an international pact that allows vessels to return to their home base, the Turkish foreign minister said on Friday.

yeah, I was wondering about this from the twitter post above.  Turkey blocking a Russian warship from the black sea would be a huge incident with a NATO country.  It would go to 11 real quick.

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12 minutes ago, TurkeyChew said:

If this guy survives this he will live a charmed life. Even if he doesn’t he is guaranteed the capital to be renamed Zelenskyberg, his face on currency, Time’s Person of the Year, Nobel Prize, Guggenheim fellow, MacArthur’s Genius Grant, Pulitzer Prize winner whatever.

This guy is inspiring and awesome is what I’m saying.

He should get the Nobel FAAFO prize.

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5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I mentioned it earlier:  the Russians are facing a bunch of bad choices here: surround Khiv and starve it, go full Grozny, or eventually pull back.  
 

They thought they were getting Crimea in 2014, now they are facing an escalating situation which is looking like they will have to commit wide spread atrocities against people who look exactly like them, and as posted above about German, will force the hands of the Germans to delink their economies, while forcing them into a lopsided and unfavorable economic arrangement with China, who you never want to be on the short side of the negotiating table with.

I also think the lack of funding and supply chain here is not being considered even more I don’t think Russian soldiers are going to commit those atrocities in the same way. They are already quitting, deserting etc. no food, no supplies, I don’t think russia will last more than a few weeks. I really don’t. $20bln a day with reserves of a six hundred billion and no supply chain now they are cut off from the world? Those reserves are gone in a month. 

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49 minutes ago, troph said:

So I’m ready to think Ukraine can win. I’m serious. The logistics nightmares, seeing incredible footage of Ukrainian troops damaging Russian forces, the low morale and lack of training and coordination of Russian troops, the supply of weaponry to Ukraine, the fact that no city has been taken yet, that russia does not yet have air superiority, air defenses are not fully neutralized yet, the strategic advantage of high morale, defending not invading, the clear advantage in training, frankly the advice and intel they are being given and the fact that Russia is broke, can’t get materials, have not thought this through and finally the President of Ukraine. I wanted him out but that is because I thought his death was a foregone conclusion. I woke up caught up on the news and am starting to believe if the Ukrainians can last a few more days this is a total loss to Russia. I don’t know if Russia will escalate to deescalate but it really does look like Ukraine has a shot.  Score analogy, it’s like Tulsa is tied with OU 17-17 late in the third quarter. 

Depends upon how you define win.   Of Russia wanted to commit virtually all their forces to the battlefield, they’d eventually overwhelm the Ukes.   I don’t think they want that or can risk exposing one flank for another.   If the Ukes can delay and bleed them at every pass, this turns into Afghan2.0.

Russia has been hoarding currency.   Enough for maybe a year.  The longer this drags out, the worse it obviously is for them.  They will also inflict heavy casualties, so as I keep saying, the pain is in the occupation.   So it depends on which side had the highest pain tolerance.   Which is history shows us anything, it’s almost always on the side of the invades.   Not the invaders.  

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