Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 89735]

Belarus has had 500+ days to build up a militia force if it wanted to help Russia, and 500+ days to send in it's admittedly-pitiful military, but it didn't, because the Belarus people don't want a part of the fight with Ukraine.  It's a great way to destabilize Belarus.

The Wagner stuff actually feels more like either Putin/Lukashenko is worried about the opposition in Belarus, or Belarus is about go through Anschluss 2.0 and join Russia.

As for the  Suwałki Gap, it took Russia 9 months to take Bakhmut, a city the size of San Marcos that's less than 70 miles from the Russian border.  The idea that they will seize and hold a corridor that's over 425 miles from the Russian border, and that has thousands of German, Czech, Norwegian, Dutch, American, British, Romanian, and Croatian troops literally camping out in the vicinity, is up there with their ideas about nuking London or D.C.  And we aren't even talking about the 40,000-strong NATO Response Force, which is being boosted to 300,000, and that can have tens of thousands of fresh troops in the Suwalki area within 36-48 hours.

And that's before we talk about the fact that the Russian forces wouldn't have air superiority, and not even close to it, while we'd be raining down Tomahawks, not to mention our various aircraft and helicopters.

Oh, and because it's so far from Russia, any attempts to assemble a force in Belarus would be easily noticed.

Their TV hosts are just throwing shit at a wall to distract people from the fact that Ukraine is slowing fucking up their shit and they are unable to stop the counteroffensive.

 

[MissingInAction 25116]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

https://twitter.com/ukraineintouch/status/1680300251830276098?s=46&t=Altn5hw2AaEec_pK2C0Fww
 

[Viper 12109]

 

Girkin says Ukraine has a chance to break through the occupiers' defence in Zaporizhzhia due to a lack of equipped and trained reserves for Russia. He revealed this in an hour-long livestream. The excerpt from a 10-minute intro is below, while the 2-minute video is a short snippet from it.

 

"The summer battle continues where the enemy is now not trying to break through but push through our frontline and “starve it out”.

 

The enemy continues applying main efforts in the Zaporizhzhia frontline, and the second area where he is transferring reserves, including those previously unused, is Bakhmut. The enemy is trying to achieve a result wherever possible, without abandoning the plans to break the Zaporizhzhia front.

 

After failures of attacks using concentrated columns, since columns like that ended up vulnerable to our artillery and aviation, the enemy moved to the tactic of a complete mixing with the ground of our units facing him. The enemy has a lot of shells, he’s not counting high-precision missiles.

 

Due to this, the enemy is trying to destroy, and completely knock out the units facing him in battle. The enemy is trying to avoid mass attacks as he made sure that breakthrough doesn’t depend on the number of vehicles, whether 4 or 40, thrown into battle, only the number of burned vehicles does.

 

Thus, offensive actions are led by fairly small assault groups with the support of several armoured vehicles, and all weapon systems used to destroy them are located by all types of enemy reconnaissances and then struck with artillery and high-precision missiles.

 

[…]

 

The enemy has the ability to withdraw weathered formations for rest and bring up fresh ones to continue the battle. But we have the same units fighting on the front - yes, they fight in defence, but the commanders who are continuously taking part in combat don’t feel much better from this.

 

It is a similar situation that led to the dismissal of the commander of the 58th Army, General Popov, who put forward an issue that existing personnel and equipment are not enough to carry out the rotation and give the troops at least some semblance of rest. And there are no reserves to bring them to a fully capable state.

 

[...]

 

I will not be revealing a military secret - the enemy knows the situation very well, unfortunately. But even in the secondary directions, the staffing of our forces again does not exceed 70%. In areas of the most fierce battles, it is significantly less.

 

Of course, it does not compare to the situation at the end of last summer/early autumn, when 20% staffing of units was considered normal, but our forces are taking losses continuously, while the stream of reinforcements and reservists from the rear has died down.

 

This means that if urgent measures are not taken, the enemy, unfortunately, has a chance to gnaw through our defence in Zaporizhzhia. And it will be then very difficult to stop him, and no Surovikin’s line which is still in a pretty deep rear will stop the enemy if it’s not taken by trained, properly equipped, and experienced troops.

 

If these troops die in the field, there will be no one to stop the enemy. This is the main question now: will the enemy be able to gnaw through our defence in 2-3 weeks, exchanging his soldiers for ours, or not, and will exhaust himself earlier.

 

[…]

 

We’re observing. Unfortuantely, we as the Angry Patriots’ Club are unable to do anything in this situation. Moreover, I understand the emotions of our Head of General Staff, the commander of the operation Gerasimov, when “some” army commander makes demands about the rotation of units.

 

Gerasimov does not have prepared and equipped reserves. Simply does not. All he has is already on the frontline, at the very least in tactical reserves. Transferring from other areas means weakening them. But transferring poorly trained mobilised units who are, let’s say, covering the “old regions” of Russia, is not a solution. These units have no experience, no vehicles, no good commanders, they will be simply smashed by the enemy and no one will be able to do anything about it.""

[4th and 5 4914]

22 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

looks like cluster munitions in first video at 12 seconds

[MillerEP 30492]

[tx 3 putt 77142]

 

[MillerEP 30492]

https://twitter.com/treaschest/status/1680379526709403650?s=46&t=Altn5hw2AaEec_pK2C0Fww

[956 Worldwide 34728]

This guy has a different theory on Wagner to Belarus: They’re going to seize the Suwalki Gap. 
 

Poland’s attitude to all this:

[Chad Fuck 17687]

This guy has a different theory on Wagner to Belarus: They’re going to seize the Suwalki Gap. 
 
[/url] Poland’s attitude to all this:

Starting a real war with Nato? Sure, pops. Let’s get you home and have another bottle of vodka.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Quote

South America is against imperialism and stands with Ukraine. 

Mexico:

 

[Chad Fuck 17687]

South America is against imperialism and stands with Ukraine. 

Mexico:
 


Mexico: We’re not South America.

[Schulz2.0 28967]

 

 

[SquishMitten 10419]

On 7/14/2023 at 9:19 PM, YGIFS said:

Could be a thread derail, but we really need to talk about the India polling numbers.  I'm guessing between them and Russia, China can finally be satiated, if not downright downgraded.  It's not cultural, it's not religious, it's not all that political (though that is a factor more than the first two I listed), it's not anti-colonialism.  What gives?  

If you had to make your living working customer support lines and call centers, constantly getting treated like shit by Americans, you’d probably resent us as well. 

[Viper 12109]

37 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

If you had to make your living working customer support lines and call centers, constantly getting treated like shit by Americans, you’d probably resent us as well. 

Plus all the geek squad and Microsoft scammers

[Schulz2.0 28967]

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28967]

 

Drone attack on Sevastopol this morning.

 

[BamaATL 16593]

 

[Pato del Muerto 52530]

If the Russian soldiers on the front line don’t have ammo, what are the odds that the guys behind them pointing guns at them have any?

[TKthunder2 4992]

7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If the Russian soldiers on the front line don’t have ammo, what are the odds that the guys behind them pointing guns at them have any?

I can’t recall the context, but in one of my Russian history courses there was a quote about always keeping 2 bullets in reserve. One for your officer and one for yourself.

Might have been bullshit, but it was memorable.

[Scheiss Meister 8408]

23 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If the Russian soldiers on the front line don’t have ammo, what are the odds that the guys behind them pointing guns at them have any?

I'm sure that they have enough for at least one or two executions.  How much ammo the guys behind have is not as important as how much ammo the guys that they are keeping in line think they have. 

After the 20th Maine made their bayonet charge down Little Round Top, they took quite a few rebel prisoners.  One of the men detailed to take the prisoners to the rear approached the regimental commander, Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain, and told him that he only had one bullet, and some of the others had none.  Chamberlain pointed to the southern prisoners and said that he should make sure that the prisoners didn't know that.

Edited July 16, 2023 by Scheiss Meister
Clarity

[Neonmoon 38129]

After that they reach Staromylnivka, one last line of defense 

wider map. Staromylnivka is next to the county line, actually to right of jagged line tooth outcrop in north 

[Armybrat 40851]

Looks like the Ukes are going in dry.

[MissingInAction 25116]

[atomheartbevo 89735]

 

[Superhero 8830]

Allow me some pessimism this afternoon

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/politics/ukraine-leopards-bradleys-counteroffensive.html

Quote

After Suffering Heavy Losses, Ukrainians Paused to Rethink Strategy

Early in the counteroffensive, Ukraine lost as much as 20 percent of its weapons and armor. The rate dropped as the campaign slowed and commanders shifted tactics.

In the first two weeks of Ukraine’s grueling counteroffensive, as much as 20 percent of the weaponry it sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed, according to American and European officials. The toll includes some of the formidable Western fighting machines — tanks and armored personnel carriers — the Ukrainians were counting on to beat back the Russians.

The startling rate of losses dropped to about 10 percent in the ensuing weeks, the officials said, preserving more of the troops and machines needed for the major offensive push that the Ukrainians say is still to come.

Some of the improvement came because Ukraine changed tactics, focusing more on wearing down the Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles than charging into enemy minefields and fire.

But that good news obscures some grim realities. The losses have also slowed because the counteroffensive itself has slowed — and even halted in places — as Ukrainian soldiers struggle against Russia’s formidable defenses. And despite the losses, the Ukrainians have so far taken just five of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach the sea in the south and split the Russian forces in two.

One Ukrainian soldier said in an interview this week that his unit’s drone picked up footage of a half-dozen Western armored vehicles caught in an artillery barrage south of the town of Velyka Novosilka.

“They all burned,” said the soldier, who identified himself as Sgt. Igor. “Everybody is hoping for a big breakthrough,” he said, adding a plea that those scrutinizing from afar appreciate the importance of slow and steady advances.

Russia had many months to prepare for the counteroffensive, and the front is littered with mines, tank traps and dug-in troops, while Russian reconnaissance drones and attack helicopters fly overhead with increasing frequency.

Given those fortifications, experts say, it is not surprising that Ukraine would sustain relatively severe losses in the early stages of the campaign.

This week, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, acknowledged that there had been a brief pause in operations some weeks ago but blamed it on a lack of equipment and munitions, and called on Western allies to quicken the pace of deliveries.

 

American officials acknowledged that pause and said that the Ukrainians had begun moving again, but more deliberately, more adept at navigating minefields and mindful of the casualty risks. With the influx of cluster munitions from the United States, they said, the pace might pick up.

“It’s not as fast, but it’s not catastrophically behind schedule,” the British defense minister, Ben Wallace, said on Wednesday. “It is doing what anyone else would do having to fight through minefields towards the Russian line.”

The problems come into focus out in the farm fields in southern Ukraine where much of the counteroffensive is being fought. There the Bradley Fighting Vehicles, long coveted by the Ukrainians, have been running over anti-tank mines on a daily basis, soldiers who have fought in the vehicles say.

The vehicles, which weigh about 34 tons, are designed to carry infantry soldiers through areas exposed to gunfire or artillery. A rear ramp opens to allow soldiers to pile out and fight. In planning for the counteroffensive, the Bradleys were meant to carry soldiers across open fields to reach Russian trenches and bunkers.

The Bradleys have done part of their job well; their thick armor has provided good protection for most soldiers, who have survived many of the mine blasts with few injuries.

“Your ears ring and things inside fly around,” said one soldier, who asked to be identified only by his first name and rank, Pvt. Serhiy. He survived such an explosion last month in fighting south of the town of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region. But in many cases the blasts severely damaged the vehicles, immobilizing them well before they could reach the Russian lines.

Military experts have long said that the first 15 miles of the counteroffensive would be the hardest, as attacking troops generally need three times more power — whether in weapons, personnel or both — than defending forces.

Ukraine’s top military officer, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, expressed frustration that Ukraine is fighting without Western F-16 warplanes, which the United States only recently agreed to allow Ukrainian pilots to be trained on, but which are not expected to be delivered for several months at least. That has left the Ukrainian troops vulnerable to the Russian helicopters and artillery.

 

Military analysts cautioned that it was still too early to draw definitive conclusions about the counteroffensive. “It does not mean that it is doomed to fail,” said Camille Grand, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former NATO assistant secretary general.

Nevertheless, he added, the absence of air superiority and air defenses that Western jets could provide for Ukraine’s attack means “that casualty rates are likely to be higher than in other conventional conflicts.”

The precise numbers of weapons and armored vehicles that have been destroyed in the counteroffensive, as opposed to “mobility kills” that can be repaired, are closely guarded secrets, and the U.S. officials did not give raw numbers, though they did agree on the percentages of weaponry lost. But a combination of open source data and official estimates can provide a snapshot in time of the destruction, particularly in the early going.

Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade, one of the three Western-equipped and trained units that were deployed early in the campaign, was set to receive 99 Bradleys, according to the leaked U.S. military plans for the counteroffensive from February — still the most recent that have been made public.

Data from Oryx, a military analysis site that counts only losses that it has visually confirmed, show that 28 of those Bradleys have been abandoned, damaged or destroyed, including 15 in a village in Zaporizhzhia Province on June 8 and 9 as the 47th was attacked by helicopters while trapped in a minefield. Six additional Bradleys were reported abandoned or destroyed in Mala Tokmachka on June 26, but Oryx researchers said these losses had occurred earlier, although it is not clear exactly when.

Given that the 47th was the only brigade initially slated to receive the Bradleys, that means that nearly one-third of the original vehicles have been lost — although all but seven of them were blown up at one battleground.

“It is within the realm of possibility that Ukrainian forces have seen losses at this level,” said Dylan Lee Lehrke, an analyst with the British security intelligence firm Janes, adding that a “significant” level of lost weapons was generally a hallmark of wars of attrition, like the one in Ukraine.

The Oryx data show that only 24 tanks were lost for the entire month of June, including some from Ukraine’s own arsenal in addition to those supplied by Western allies.

Ten of them were German-made Leopard tanks and mine-clearers, the data show. Presumably, they were lost in battle with Ukraine’s 33rd Mechanized Brigade, one of the three units deployed early in the counteroffensive, and which was slated to receive 32 Leopards in the U.S. planning documents from Feb. 28.

 

That would mean that the brigade lost 30 percent of the Leopards it was given — all but two of them in the first week of fighting, the Oryx data show.

The Ukrainian authorities say the army has so far advanced the deepest in southern areas of the Donetsk region, but no more than about five miles from the former front line at Velyka Novosilka. It faces another 55 miles to reach the Sea of Azov, a primary goal of the counteroffensive, as it would cut the land bridge to Crimea, wreaking havoc with Russia’s already shaky logistics. Ukraine’s forces are also advancing in two areas in the Zaporizhzhia region.

It is even slower near Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region, where the bulk of Bradleys and Leopards have been sent to an area of open fields with little cover. There, Ukraine’s army has advanced only about a mile.

 The minefields are primarily what's slowing down the attack. Hopefully the Ukrainians can use cluster munitions to clear the minefields.

[MillerEP 30492]

[Nivek 16946]

On 7/15/2023 at 2:42 PM, Gatorubet said:

“Calm down, ma’am, I only had my hands on your behind because you have the same figure as my wife and it’s her birthday, and I was going to buy some OWWW!!!! SHIT!!”

Doesn't matter touched hiney.

[Nivek 16946]

On 7/15/2023 at 2:13 PM, conVINCEd said:

Lost the fight with the chimp?

Nah, trying to be a fun dad, I went through the shopping cart entry with my daughter and well this time it wasn't so fun and amusing for her.  Ah well, but having my 9 yr old daughter trying to take care of me was nice.  

[Nivek 16946]

1 hour ago, Superhero said:

Allow me some pessimism this afternoon

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/politics/ukraine-leopards-bradleys-counteroffensive.html

 The minefields are primarily what's slowing down the attack. Hopefully the Ukrainians can use cluster munitions to clear the minefields.

Wish they were getting some boats to flank those trenches and minefields.  

[MillerEP 30492]

[MillerEP 30492]

[Rimbo 25988]

10 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

This guy has a different theory on Wagner to Belarus: They’re going to seize the Suwalki Gap. 
 

Poland’s attitude to all this:

 

8 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Starting a real war with Nato? Sure, pops. Let’s get you home and have another bottle of vodka.Fetching info...

Oh, you want to trigger Article 5? Because that's how you trigger Article 5.

[Gatorubet 30254]

7 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

 

Oh, you want to trigger Article 5? Because that's how you trigger Article 5.

This shows the Suwalki Gap.  In orange.  You need to enlarge the image and look for old St. Petersburg area. 

This shows the orange gap shown above between Polish and Lithuanian border in greater detail.   The Russians would literally have to attack Poland and Lithuania - two NATO countries. 

Meanwhile in Moscow,  Putin is strategizing about attacking NATO 

[BamaATL 16593]

Not quite sure what has happened here, but it would appear the bridge is poorly constructed, shocking

 

[MillerEP 30492]

This is the explanation:

[Laxtonto 12090]

Rumors floating around that the Kerch bridge may have been hit and all traffic has stopped….

If so, let the slow strangulation of Crimea begin and expect greater probing over the Dneiper River….

Crimea is already under supply pressure as the offensive creeps forward and puts the major E/W train routes under fire. Now if the Kerch bridge is out and how ammunition supplies have already been scarce, it is easy to surmise that there is limited ammunition stores that haven’t been shipped East to the front. 

[MillerEP 30492]

Sure looks like it:

[Schulz2.0 28967]

Dear Russians,

[Pato del Muerto 52530]

At what point do they aim for the pillars/superstructure instead of the roadway?

Edited July 17, 2023 by Pato del Muerto

[BamaATL 16593]

19 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Rumors floating around that the Kerch bridge may have been hit and all traffic has stopped….

If so, let the slow strangulation of Crimea begin and expect greater probing over the Dneiper River….

Crimea is already under supply pressure as the offensive creeps forward and puts the major E/W train routes under fire. Now if the Kerch bridge is out and how ammunition supplies have already been scarce, it is easy to surmise that there is limited ammunition stores that haven’t been shipped East to the front. 

Hard to tell from the video the extent of the damage, it would be nice to think this is enough to accomplish all this, but I'm not sure.  If it's just a deck collapse, my guess would be they could have it back up and running in a matter of weeks.  Hopefully, the damage is more extensive.  

[Laxtonto 12090]

As I sit here drinking my morning coffee and get in the mindset to go teach Indian MBA students about Supply Chain Risk Mitigation, it makes me think about the back and forth around the summer offensive.

It has been active for about a month and now it is becoming easier to understand both sides initial strategies and the first counter moves. 
 

It is pretty easy to look back and figure out that the UKA was/is planning to keep broad pressure across the front with occasional large scale assaults intermixed at perceived weak points across an extremely long front. This is to both stretch the RU troop dispersal as well as put stress on their supply chain. RU, knowing that the long front is something they can’t defend easily built significant defensive emplacements off and the front in set areas that would have overlapping artillery coverage and mined the shit out of everywhere else. Then, in a move to the UKA did not expect blew the damn and moved a large portion of the troops eastward to set as a blocking force to help reinforce the front and allows the RU to shade their reinforcements eastwardly.

The mines and artillery play into their strengths and blunt large offensives. Now the UKA does limiters assaults and then wait until the RU artillery are either out of ammo or have been indicted by counter battery fire and leapfrog forward again.

Now, as the flood waters recede and the ground dries, the RU and the UKA both have new options after RU did the short term route to shorten the front. The UKA either can keep going and hope for a break though or have used the last few weeks with limited tank combat to attempt to mass armor in Kherson and attempt to hop the Dniper into the Crimea.. Either way, the short term use of the troops in the Crimea as a blocking force is now over and either the RU has to pull them back to the Crimea nearer to Kherson or hope that the UKA is going to only stick to the current area of approach…

 

Moves and counter moves…. 

[The Dog 44066]

yup the bridge is down.

[Parliament 14263]

So how would the UKA have done it?  Do they have ATACMS now that can get there? Storm Shadows?  A Top Gun attack where they zoomed into missile range, launched them and bugged out?  (Don't think, just do.)

[The Dog 44066]

 

[BamaATL 16593]

8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

yup the bridge is down.

Well, it's about 5:30 in Crimea, the sun should be up shortly.  Fingers crossed.  

[PTINS 3472]

 

 

Edited July 17, 2023 by PTINS

[atomheartbevo 89735]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Well, it's about 5:30 in Crimea, the sun should be up shortly.  Fingers crossed.  

This, or variations of it, are being passed around, but no idea if true.  Google Maps is showing a traffic jam.

Quote

At least one span of the Crimean (Kerch) bridge collapsed, another one fell off the support, z-channels report

Some people are reposting videos of Russian vehicles putting out a smoke screen on the bridge, but those are from May.

 I’m guessing whatever hit this was one or more missiles, or maybe even water-based in nature.  Ukraine has slowly been building up some domestic cruise missiles, and I’d imagine they’d save them for something big.  We recently saw them go at Sevastopol with air and sea drones.   Could have been them probing Russian defenses or trying to force the Russians to move some defenses to Sevastopol.

Edited July 17, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89735]

Wow, forgot that it was already July 17 there.

 

 

 

[InkaUtexas 26007]

Storm Shadow said what's up you concrete bitch. 

[atomheartbevo 89735]

Time to pull out old memes?  Ukrainian bio weapons?

Nice