Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 89157]

Thinking about what the Russians had in February of 2022, got me thinking about the Ukrainians then. There's a discussion in CR what should or shouldn't have been done politically in 2014, but there are two non-political things to think about in the aftermath, that led to Putin still not taking Kyiv after 500 days.

1. While we didn't flood Ukraine with larger weapons/systems, we did flood them with a lot of training, and we did help modernize a lot of their training and thinking. Where we constantly saw examples of junior Russian officers and NCOs freezing up and waiting for orders from way up the chain-of-command (we know that Russian captains and colonels make decisions that lieutenants and NCOs should make, and Russian colonels/generals make decisions Russian captains and majors should make), we also saw plenty of examples of Ukrainian junior NCOs and officers at the lower-level units taking the initiative, something that Western/NATO trainers emphasized.

2. Ukraine  made a lot of moves in the aftermath of 2014 to gets its military and society together, and to be as ready as it could for what it saw as inevitable, and they were proven right in February of last year. If they hadn't, Russia would be occupying Ukraine proper these days.  As much as we can 20/20 hindsight this shit, Ukraine did what it needed to do to survive a full-blown invasion, and the proof is in the pudding.

There's a whole lot of 20/20 hindsight/teeth gnashing about how we should have replaced all of their tanks/aircraft/etc. after 2013/2014, but I think given the circumstances, it may have worked out better that the Ukrainians had the weapons/systems that they had - behind all of those memes about Ukrainian farmers stealing Russian tanks, all of those Russian tanks and vehicles were quickly put back into action on the side of the Ukrainians, and Russia provided a very steady stream of ammunition, vehicles, and weapons that the Ukrainians were able to use on the fly, and Ukrainians crews and mechanics were trained on those vehicles.  

Even if we had fully equipped Ukraine with NATO tanks/aircraft/etc., at the end of the day, NATO troops were not going to defend Ukraine in February of last year, and so Ukraine would have taken a shitload of losses of NATO hardware because of the simple fact that they were facing a nation of 140 million people with the then-world's second-largest military.  If NATO had re-equipped Ukraine after 2014, NATO would be scrambling to find aircraft, tanks, etc. for replacements of destroyed former NATO stock.  Instead, for the better part of 18 months, Ukraine was using up older Russian/Soviet equipment that they were able to easily repair and get parts and ammo and replacements for (thanks to captures of Russian equipment/stores, as well as ex-Soviet bloc countries emptying their old stores), and so we are mostly replacing lost ex-Soviet equipment, and still have plenty of spare systems. Ammo is another story, but that would have been an issue no matter what.

I could be wrong, and I have my issues (I think we should have been training their pilots and aircraft mechanics a year ago, and ATACMS should have happened already) in the bigger picture, NATO is currently extremely strong and only getting stronger (rather than scrambling to replace 18 months' worth of NATO hardware losses, we are slowly replacing Ukrainian/Soviet hardware), and we are (re)building out a Ukrainian military that will be able to keep the Russians out in the long run once they boot them out.

None of it's perfect at all, but it's day 500+ and Russia is on the defensive.

Edited July 17, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[Trey3216 15308]

2 hours ago, Rimbo said:

Mom's gonna fix it all soon.

Mom's coming round to put it back the way it oughta be.

Learn to swim

 

Fuck Vladimir Putin and

Fuck all his Twitter bots

Fuck all these gun-toting hip Chechen wannabes

Learn to swim

Mother do you think they'll cluster bomb?

Mother do you think we'll make spring thaw?

Mother do you like the wash machine and bogger?

Oooooooooo, mah, will the lada even run at all?  

[BamaATL 16473]

23 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

If I've learned one thing about Russia in the last year and a half, it's that fighting, drinking all day, shitting wherever that isn't a toilet is basically just general Russian behavior. I'm amazed this is some kind of news in Russia or seen as abrnomal behavior. It sounds like just like a regular Tuesday. 

Maybe it's me, but I don't think its a great strategy to give a bunch of mentally ill, fetal alcohol people, and convicts (and perhaps all three at once), guns and money to run around.  Given those new capabilities combined with the lack of health efforts in prisons, might just make them a public nuisance as well as a public health issue.  Them either not understanding a toilet or flatly refusing to use one might be the least of their problems.  

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13489]

1 hour ago, AUS-97HORN said:

This might honestly be the funniest tweet I have read in a while.

"vowing a military response"

 

uh, what the fuck have you been doing for the last 18 months Vlad?     Its not like your response tonight will have anymore power to it than yesterdays.

 

we all know that you are either going to swarm bomb either Kyiv or Odessa tonight to get back at those dastardly people protecting themselves from your unwarranted aggression you fucking POS

Japan the day after Hiroshima - "That's it. This means war."

[BamaATL 16473]

7 minutes ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Japan the day after Hiroshima - "That's it. This means war."

well, as it turns out, it wasn't over.....

[Parliament 14033]

Too soon...

[Royalfan5 2324]

On a grain deal note, at this point the reduced production from fields being out of action from war is going to be pretty manageable to ship from Ukraine via other less efficient methods so I don’t know if the corridor will matter that much short term. The bigger wild card would be a collapse in Russian shipping capability especially if the Aussies have a rough go with El Niño this year

[Gatorubet 29838]

2 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

This might honestly be the funniest tweet I have read in a while.

"vowing a military response"

 

uh, what the fuck have you been doing for the last 18 months Vlad?     Its not like your response tonight will have anymore power to it than yesterdays.

No man.  This time they use actual ammunition. 

[MillerEP 30290]

 

[InkaUtexas 25002]

Fuck Russia. 

 

[BamaATL 16473]

4 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Khorzhan was apparently stabbed to death in his office.  Either that or he fell on a gift of steak knives.  

[AUS-97HORN 11563]

6 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

[InkaUtexas 25002]

22 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Khorzhan was apparently stabbed to death in his office.  Either that or he fell on a gift of steak knives.  

Damn CUTCO.... 

[InkaUtexas 25002]

Thought most will appreciate this. NAFO has a good sense of, um, humor. Yeah, that's it. 

 

[Braff Zacklin 13303]

Can't trim @MillerEP's quote properly, so I'll just re-embed the tweet here.

Dressing like a Grand Wizard was crime enough for capital punishment.

[BamaATL 16473]

41 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Thought most will appreciate this. NAFO has a good sense of, um, humor. Yeah, that's it. 

 

Some of you my call this a tease.  Not ashamed to say I finished.  

[Viper 11958]

lol

 

 

 

[pops 6960]

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

They had close to 200,000 in Feb. 2022 at the borders, but yeah, that would mean closer to 50,000-70,000 actual infantry that could take and hold ground, which is not really a lot. The rest were artillery, logistics, medical, etc.

 

Lulz. You said logistics. 

[Rimbo 25500]

18 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Some of you my call this a tease.  Not ashamed to say I finished.  

Same.

12 minutes ago, pops said:

Lulz. You said logistics. 

Well, speaking of, here's Phillips O'Brien's (free!) weekend update on Substack: https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update37?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1176440&post_id=134998917&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

Some highlights:

Quote

Hello Everyone, well the big story of the week was the NATO summit at Vilnius, and in particular what that said about how the war might develop and then what will happen with Ukraine and NATO after the war. There were also some very predictable stories that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was slow, but once again they are line on the maps analyses that dont distinguish between the retaking of territory and the destruction of Russian forces. So, the focus of the update must deal with these stories first and foremost.

x,x,x,should only be allowed to go fuck himself,x,2,3,x,1

Quote

[The USA] seemed to think that if they wrote an overly elaborate, multi-qualified statement on the future of Ukraine that they could please everyone—including the Ukrainians....As was bound to happen—they pleased no one, particularly the Ukrainians. ... President Zelensky was upset ... that eventually Ukraine’s supporters in Washington will put pressure on them to sign away parts of Ukraine or even the actually the idea of Ukraine joining NATO, to force some deal with Putin.

...

Zelensky’s harsh reaction seemed to catch some in the Biden administration by surprise. This alone is surprising—there are some in Washington that don’t seem to understand that Ukraine is fighting this war for its existence, and sometimes being clever or qualified is not helpful.

Quote

Biden has both brought Zelensky to Washington he made his own dramatic statement by visiting Kyiv. The power between the two states has more balance than people understand. If the Biden Administration somehow decided to backtrack on support, it would look both vain and supercilious. Thankfully it didnt.

Once the decision not to cut off their nose to spite their face was made, the Biden Administration actually behaved with great statesmanship.

i really can't wait until this album drops

Quote

[Biden] even interrupted a question meant for Zelensky to make the point.

“Q    President Zelenskyy, how soon after the war would you like to be in NATO?  How soon after the war would you like to join NATO?
PRESIDENT BIDEN:  An hour and 20 minutes.  You guys ask really insightful questions.”

Quote

And all these new statements matter—basically this is why I’ve ended up in the half-full camp when it comes to the Vilnius summit. What is has revealed is that Ukraine is in a stronger political position than perhaps people realized, that the US administration has now gone on record with more robust statements on Ukraine in NATO than it would have had it written a better statement at the start, and Ukraine’s supporters in Europe (who are increasingly vocal about getting Ukraine into NATO as soon as is reasonably possibe) have greater motivation.

Basically we are in a position where only a new Trump administration might keep Ukraine out of NATO after the war, and, just as important, it will now be politically almost impossible for Ukrainian membership of NATO to be bargained away.

The other reason I’m a half full person, is that Vilnius showed just how committed Ukraine’s European supporters are. ... Anything that looks like Russia got a good deal at the end will look like some kind of acceptance of atrocity.

noCR

Quote

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is not 'slow' (yet again)

...

The risky vehicle assaults have been dialled down and the campaign to destroy Russian artillery, ammunition and command and control has been accelerated. Indeed this campaign seems to be getting major Ukrainians resources, and is starting to show some results. Ukrainian counter-battery fire (amongst other things) seems to be taking an extremely heavy toll of Russian artillery and Russian capabilities are degrading.

...

Crucially—they are fighting these campaigns while keeping their own losses down. This is where the Ukraine is slow narrative makes little sense. Ukraine is being smart, not slow.

...

Though the Ukrainians are fighting this counteroffensive and are taking a heavy toll on Russian artillery, they have reduced their own losses. This is a sign of success not failure. So, please dont obsess about lines on the map now—what Ukraine is doing, as Ive been saying for months, is really hard. It will take time. Lets see where we are nearer the end of the summer. My strong guess is that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will not be seen as a failure.

 

Edited July 18, 2023 by Rimbo

[WhatTheBuck 28645]

40 minutes ago, Viper said:

lol

 

 

 

Just don’t kneel during the national anthem. 

[InkaUtexas 25002]

49 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Some of you my call this a tease.  Not ashamed to say I finished.  

Yeah, that bridge blowing up was damn cool. Right? That is what you meant? 

[BamaATL 16473]

9 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yeah, that bridge blowing up was damn cool. Right? That is what you meant? 

Don't judge me.  

[atomheartbevo 89157]

1 hour ago, Braff Zacklin said:

Can't trim @MillerEP's quote properly, so I'll just re-embed the tweet here.

Dressing like a Grand Wizard was crime enough for capital punishment.

I like the Soviet symbol, really ties the outfit together, and lets everybody know that no matter how much the Putin sympathizers try to claim that Putin and his cronies are not about bringing the Soviet Union, it's about trying to bring the Soviet Union back.

[BamaATL 16473]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I like the Soviet symbol, really ties the outfit together, and lets everybody know that no matter how much the Putin sympathizers try to claim that Putin and his cronies are not about bringing the Soviet Union, it's about trying to bring the Soviet Union back.

For all I know, this could be a picture of the Hoosier's wrestling coach.  It sort of has a Big Ten feel of asshole to it.  

[686 3382]

[Rimbo 25500]

1 minute ago, 686 said:

 

gettin an error but here's the pic:

[F250 28577]

7 hours ago, BamaATL said:

well, as it turns out, it wasn't over.....

 

[BamaATL 16473]

11 minutes ago, F250 said:

 

Sadly enough, this was actually accurate.  I think the last guy didn't emerge from the jungle in either Indonesia or the Philippines until 1972.  Imagine hiding out for 27 years after the war was over, yikes.  

[Pato del Muerto 52140]

8 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Mother do you think they'll cluster bomb?

Mother do you think we'll make spring thaw?

Mother do you like the wash machine and bogger?

Oooooooooo, mah, will the lada even run at all?  

Shut your fucking mouth, now don’t you whine 

mother’s gonna take Kiev in a day or two

mother’s gonna conscript so many of you 

mother’s gonna give you a cartridge or three

we might let you die but we won’t let you flee

Edited July 18, 2023 by Pato del Muerto

[atomheartbevo 89157]

41 minutes ago, F250 said:

 

Is that Mickey Rooney dressed up as a sailor?

[InkaUtexas 25002]

how it was done. 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89157]

Russia launched a half-dozen cruise missiles and over 20 drones at Odessa.

[InkaUtexas 25002]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia launched a half-dozen cruise missiles and over 20 drones at Odessa.

And reports of more incoming. Meanwhile twitter twats are trying to redraw Ukraine. War ends when Russia goes home. How that happens can be in different ways. 

More my birthday I want someone to toss Putin out a window, but won't happen since he is never close to one. So in that case, I need want aggy tears. 

[KYHorn 16741]

18 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Ukraine has said things are difficult in the area, but this is also worth considering

 

it looks like the russians have about 100k+ troops in the north with 700-900 tanks trying to conduct a offensive right now...

from ALL reports on both sides it appears that it is gaining a few feet, BUT, the attack is disjointed, the units are understrength, many have been moving back and forth without advancing, and its confusing as hell with too many commands (eastern and central military districts)....

and on BOTH sides we are finding out that ukr did pull back in preperation for this to much better lines and have let the russians walk into areas where ukr heavy guns and res forces are taking apart the russians...

this russian counter / counter / counter.. i have lost count.. is much larger than what ukr has used in the south so far 100K+ vs 4-6000 (47th / 37th brigades)... and has gained less ground so far.. 

lets see how far the russians are willing to advance into the trap with 100K of cluster 155 shells already in country and about to be used. 

i have a feeling that russia sees the ramp up in production and donations from the west and ukr... and sees that it has to use the forces it has or watch them get taken apart by long range weapons.

I had a hard time believing it, but it looks like these numbers were accurately reported.

 

 

 

[KYHorn 16741]

Russian tourist chats are full of panicked Russians who did not get the vacation they desired. 

I've translated some of their posts below.

"Important information for those who are going to get out of Crimea by land route. The most important thing is to stock up on the necessary amount of water. Local "entrepreneurs" decided to take advantage of this situation and in order to enrich themselves increased the price by 8-10 times!

Being on the territory of Crimea download offline maps, on the territory of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk regions, you can use mobile communication only if you have a SIM-card Phoenix, but there is an option to buy it right in the queue in front of the checkpoint, there they sell them for 2000 rubles.

The situation with toilets is also miserable, free toilets at petrol stations have been closed, they justify themselves by saying that the influx of people is too large, you can make an agreement for 500 roubles, for children, pregnant women, disabled people and participants of the SMO the price is 400 roubles."

"The first border has been passed. Customs. We fuelled up at the last Lukoil petrol station, but there are no toilets there. There are big traffic jams in the opposite direction, towards Rostov. Documents and passports and child's birth certificate were checked at the checkpoint. At the customs there is a toilet and a lot of people on foot with their bags, their bags are checked there like at the airport. For those with cars, only the documents."

"Why didn't they say they guarantee safety on the land road to Crimea, if they can't protect the Crimean bridge, and it's a 50/50 ride there?"

"Yes, Megaphone [cellphone service provider] is completely dead, it doesn't show anything."

"Just yesterday I was thinking what a moron one should be to go on holiday to Crimea now.
Well, now the holiday will definitely be remembered when they go home through the front.
They are disrupting the logistics of our military with traffic jams, stupid faggots."

"One thing that annoys me is that after the first time, the competent authorities swore that ordinary people have nothing to fear, that now combat dolphins, medusas, shrimps and plankton guard the bridge 50 hours a day. F**k, how did that happen? !!!!!! Did they screw up again? !!!!!!!!"

"Are there gas stations along the road in the new territories?"

Sure

Bandits, too, not just gas stations".

[atomheartbevo 89157]

38 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

I had a hard time believing it, but it looks like these numbers were accurately reported.

That would explain why the Ukrainians have held so much in reserve, and why a lot of units with Western equipment that we know about haven’t been seen in combat.  I’m guessing NATO easily spotted the Russians given how sloppy and untrained so many of them are.  

Wonder if the buildup led to the US rushing cluster munitions to Ukraine   

Would also explain the hit on the Kerch Bridge.  Now that it’s basically down for most traffic, Russia has to try and keep the land routes open, which are coming under Ukrainian artillery.

Russian planners right now looking at Crimea and the land route in  

[KYHorn 16741]

 

Speaker of the Eastern Group, Serhii Cherevatyi, commented on the information about the gathering of the 100,000-strong army of the russian federation in the Kupiansk direction.

 

According to him, this group, although large, is not well-prepared and motivated, and most of the 900 tanks are old Soviet equipment.

 

"For many months in a row, the defense forces have not given them any progress and have been hitting them hard," -Cherevatyi emphasized.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11665]

WaPo: no combined arms, trenches, mines, pre-targeted positions designed to hail lead on any attempt to move forward? It’s wwi.  What else could it be. 
 

Quote

Ukraine aims to sap Russia’s defenses, as U.S. urges a decisive breakthrough

Ukrainian commanders have yet to use the large-scale offensive tactics they have been trained on, as Kyiv says it needs more weapons to fight the war Washington wants

Missy Ryan

 

Ukraine is making limited advances in its counteroffensive against Russian forces but has yet to employ the kind of larger-scale operations that American officials believe could enable a breakthrough, officials and analysts say, deepening questions among some of Ukraine’s chief backers about whether Kyiv can move fast enough to match a finite supply of munitions and arms.

Five weeks into the highly anticipated operation, Ukrainian forces are attempting to weaken Russian defenses by firing fusillades of artillery and missiles and sending small teams of sappers into the sprawling minefields that constitute their adversary’s outermost ring of defense. But the pace of progress, in three main areas along a vast 600-mile front line, has generated concerns in the West that the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky may not deliver as powerful a blow as it could.

A U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share the American assessment of the operation, said the United States and other nations had trained Ukrainian troops on integrated offensive maneuvers and provided mine-clearing equipment including rollers and rocket-fired charges.

“Applying all those capabilities in a way that enables them to breach those obstacles, but do it quickly, is paramount,” the official said. At the same time, the official added, as Ukrainian forces face intense attacks from antitank munitions and armed Russian drones: “We don’t underestimate or under-appreciate that it’s a very tough situation.”

Underlying the evolving assessments of the operation, which Kyiv launched in early June after months of preparation, is a debate about the tactics that can best enable Ukraine to penetrate highly fortified Russian lines and recapture sufficient territory to potentially nudge President Vladimir Putin toward abandoning his goal of cementing permanent control over vast swaths of Ukraine.

Western officials and analysts say Ukraine’s military has so far embraced an attrition-based approach aimed largely at creating vulnerabilities in Russian lines by firing artillery and missiles at command, transport and logistics sites at the rear of the Russian position, instead of conducting what Western military officials call “combined arms” operations that involve coordinated maneuvers by large groups of tanks, armored vehicles, infantry, artillery and, sometimes, air power.

Ukraine’s military leaders argue that, lacking aviation might, they must avoid unnecessary losses against an adversary with a far larger pool of recruits and weaponry. To preserve manpower, Ukraine has fielded just four of a dozen trained brigades in the current campaign.

“We cannot use meat-grinder tactics as the Russians do,” Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s defense minister, said in an interview. “For us, the most precious thing is the lives and health of our soldiers. That is why our task is to achieve success at the front while protecting lives.”

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank that tracks daily battlefield developments, calculates that Ukraine has liberated some 250 square kilometers since the beginning of the offensive, far short of Western hopes and, as Zelensky acknowledged, slower than Ukrainian leaders had wished.

Expectations are high: a Ukrainian counteroffensive last fall yielded shocking gains against unprepared and undermotivated Russian troops, including the recapture of strategic areas in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions.

Military analysts say there are important differences this time that come down in Moscow’s favor. Unlike last fall, when Kremlin leaders appeared to doubt Ukraine’s ability to punch back, Russian forces have had months to plant mines, dig trenches and position anti-armor and drone units that have slowed Ukraine’s advance. And unlike in Ukraine’s recapture of the port city of Kherson, where Moscow struggled to resupply and defend positions across the Dnieper River, Russian forces along the front line have no major obstacles at their back.

While Russia’s military is showing signs of strain, including the dismissal of one senior commander, the reported death of another in a Ukrainian strike and the withdrawal of mercenary Wagner forces, it has shown itself to be a formidable adversary. Moscow has been able to ship fresh troops to the front lines, powered in part by Putin accelerating mobilization at home.

Another important feature of Moscow’s defenses are the omnipresent drones that provide Russian forces granular, real-time information about Ukrainian troops’ whereabouts, enabling them to conduct kamikaze attacks or tee up targeted strikes, a challenge that not even American forces — for all their combat experience in recent decades — have faced on this scale.

Analysts say that Ukrainian attempts to breach Russian defenses with armored units early in the offensive were met with overwhelming artillery, antitank missiles, loitering munitions and helicopter fire, generating significant losses. Ukrainian officials say Russia is especially quick to fire on armored vehicles and anti-mine equipment such as the Mine Clearing Line Charge (MICLIC) when they press forward.

As a result, Ukrainian commanders have embraced more low-profile advances involving groups of 15 to 50 people on foot, said Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. Some are sappers who advance on their bellies to find and disable enemy mines. Other infantry teams lie in wait with surface-to-air missiles to take down Russian helicopters.

Rob Lee, a former Marine infantry officer now at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said Ukraine’s tactics could minimize losses — but they come with trade-offs.

“Advancing on foot will likely reduce the attrition they sustain,” he said. “But it means the advances will be slower and have less opportunity to achieve a rapid breakthrough.”

Ukraine got a boost this month when President Biden authorized the provision of U.S. cluster munitions to Ukraine, unlocking an arsenal of controversialartillery ammunition that has the potential to tide Ukraine over until Western nations can produce more standard shells.

Analysts say that another impediment to mounting larger-scale operations is the limited training that Ukrainian troops received over the winter on those combined-arms tactics, something that American forces rehearse at a specialized training center year after year.

U.S. officials have been reluctant to comment extensively on Ukraine’s tactics because they don’t want to be perceived as criticizing a close partner at a time of existential threat.

Story continues below advertisement

Lt. Gen. Douglas A. Sims, a senior official on the U.S. military’s Joint Staff, noted that Ukrainian troops were being asked to employ new equipment and tactics “all while being shot at and bombed” as they attempt to traverse a massive minefield. He noted that it took months before breakthroughs occurred in other major historical battles.

“And so where they are gaining hundreds of meters a day, maybe a kilometer a day in some places, they’re doing that at great cost in terms of effort,” he told reporterslast week. “This is hard warfare; it’s in really tough terrain; it’s under fire, and really, when you consider all of that, it’s pretty remarkable,” he said.

But as the campaign continues without large-scale gains, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top military officer, is making urgent appeals for donations of Western air power to offset Ukraine’s disadvantages.

Story continues below advertisement

While the Biden administration has not agreed to directly provide the F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine wants, the White House relented in permitting other countries to transfer their own U.S.-origin planes to Ukraine. A European-led training effort is expected to get underway next month.

Ride in a Ukrainian Mig-29 to experience flying low and fast to avoid Russian radar. (Video: Jason Aldag, Kamila Hrabchuk for The Washington Post)

Ukrainian officials have pointed out that Western militaries would never attempt a massive operation — which he said was the most intense since World War II — without air support.

“So, to say that it is slow or too fast is at least ridiculous to hear from those who have no idea what it is,” Zaluzhny said in an interview. “They do not know what it is. And God forbid they should ever experience it.”

Story continues below advertisement

American officials privately say that Western jets would have little utility in the current fight because of Russia’s extensive air defenses.

“It’s just a matter of continuing to apply pressure in a combined-arms approach,” the U.S. official said.

U.S. officials say they expect Ukraine to eventually push though minefields and close in on Russia’s main defensive lines. But Ukrainian forces “have to be careful and calculating here about using all your artillery when they’re still sorting through minefields,” said a second U.S. official, who like other officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “Because you’re going to need that artillery down the road.”

Zelensky’s government has pointed out that the pace of the assault and the timing of its launch in June — after months of officials preparing the “spring” offensive — was partly a function of the gradual supply of Western arms, which have often come only after months of bargaining and logistical delays.

“It’s very much in the hands of the West how far [Ukrainians] advance,” a senior NATO defense official said of Ukraine’s forward movement. “The West is doing all the right things, just six months late.”

Ukrainian officials continue to push for longer-range missiles, something that analysts agree could help diminish Russia’s ability to maintain forward positions. Russia responded with outrage on Monday to the second major attack on the Kerch Bridge, a major supply route connecting Russia to Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, which Putin annexed illegally in 2014.

Video shows damage after Ukraine attacked a key bridge that connects the Crimean Peninsula to the Russian region of Krasnodar with drones on July 17. (Video: Reuters)

While France announced last week it would provide longer-range SCALP missiles to Ukraine, following a similar decision by Britain to send Storm Shadows, the Biden administration has so far denied Ukrainian requests for the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which has a range of 190 miles, due to concerns about U.S. reserves and the potential for escalation with Russia.

A second NATO official said that “intangibles” — including morale and motivation — still favor Ukraine. “But it is reality that Russia does have more resources broadly speaking, and has more people, and that’s why it’s so urgent,” the official added, to have “an eye toward pressing and constantly maintain that momentum.”

Khurshudyan reported from Kyiv.

Understanding the Russia-Ukraine conflict

 

[bolverk 29122]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia launched a half-dozen cruise missiles and over 20 drones at Odessa.

You called it

[Schulz2.0 28657]

Mick Ryan article 

 

[Schulz2.0 28657]

 

 

 

[tx ind 6929]

That dude being alive must mean he has some great dirt on Putin.

[Longhornsnus 200]

Read this today, link from FT: https://www.ft.com/content/ab62af67-ed2a-42d0-87eb-c762ac163cf0

The US has accidentally been leaking info to Mali for a decade

A simple typo has resulted in millions of sensitive US military emails ending up in Mali, according to The Financial Times.

How?

For a decade, many US military folks intending to send emails to .mil addresses (the suffix for the US military) have accidentally sent them to .ml, the suffix for Mali. And until yesterday (Monday), Mali’s .ml domain was managed by a Dutch consultant, who tried to warn the Pentagon.

But now that Russia-aligned Mali has resumed control of the .ml domain again, it potentially has access to information like:

 Staffing lists at US bases

 The travel plans for the US Army’s highest-ranking officer, and

 Even corrosion problems impacting Australian F-35s.

We didn’t need a reminder, but we got one anyway: national security systems can actually be pretty fragile, because ultimately they’re made up of people. And people make mistakes. Big ones.

Also worth noting:

Reportedly, none of the information sent to Mali was classified (such info is typically sent through separate encrypted systems).

Unclassified info can still offer valuable insights to an adversary.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11665]

The Malian Armed Forces (French: Forces Armées Maliennes) consists of the Army (French: Armée de Terre), Republic of Mali Air Force (French: Force Aérienne de la Republique du Mali), and National Guard .^[6] They number some 7,000 and are under the control of the Minister of Armed Forces and Veterans. The Library of Congress as of January 2005 stated that "[t]he military is underpaid, poorly equipped, and in need of rationalization. Its organisation has suffered from the incorporation of Tuareg irregular forces into the regular military following a 1992 agreement between the government and Tuareg rebel forces. They have surprisingly good insight into the the corrosion problems impacting Australian F-35s tho."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malian_Armed_Forces

[Trey3216 15308]

8 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Shut your fucking mouth, now don’t you whine 

mother’s gonna take Kiev in a day or two

mother’s gonna conscript so many of you 

mother’s gonna give you a cartridge or three

we might let you die but we won’t let you flee

Mother's gonna give baby Sunflower seeeeeeeds

Ooooooo, babe

Ooooooo, babe

Oh baby, you're always meat gravy, for me.  

[atomheartbevo 89157]

16 minutes ago, tx ind said:

That dude being alive must mean he has some great dirt on Putin.

Yep.  Still has his plane.  Wagner has plenty of trucks that are needed in Russia and the money to move around.  Meanwhile Putin continues to relieve or imprison Russian generals.   He’s got something on Putin.

I’m guessing there will be an Anschluss 2.0 or keeping Lukashenko in power.  

[BamaATL 16473]

1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

I had a hard time believing it, but it looks like these numbers were accurately reported.

 

 

 

I don't think the Battle of the Bulge is an accurate comparison.  At least with that the Germans had some element of surprise.  This seems to be more like Pickett's charge, and my guess is it will be a slaughter, if not more so than the original.  At least we should get more vids of tanks exploding.  Also, if the reports are accurate, this would mean more than half their main battle tanks they have operationally left in country are here.  Perhaps the plan all along has been to allow the Russian's to rather stupidly march to their own destruction, and they are ready to oblige.  

[Trey3216 15308]

12 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I don't think the Battle of the Bulge is an accurate comparison.  At least with that the Germans had some element of surprise.  This seems to be more like Pickett's charge, and my guess is it will be a slaughter, if not more so than the original.  At least we should get more vids of tanks exploding.  Also, if the reports are accurate, this would mean more than half their main battle tanks they have operationally left in country are here.  Perhaps the plan all along has been to allow the Russian's to rather stupidly march to their own destruction, and they are ready to oblige.  

Pickett's Charge/Custer's "Stand" rolled into one.  

[Nivek 16697]

50 minutes ago, Longhornsnus said:

Read this today, link from FT: https://www.ft.com/content/ab62af67-ed2a-42d0-87eb-c762ac163cf0

The US has accidentally been leaking info to Mali for a decade

A simple typo has resulted in millions of sensitive US military emails ending up in Mali, according to The Financial Times.

How?

For a decade, many US military folks intending to send emails to .mil addresses (the suffix for the US military) have accidentally sent them to .ml, the suffix for Mali. And until yesterday (Monday), Mali’s .ml domain was managed by a Dutch consultant, who tried to warn the Pentagon.

But now that Russia-aligned Mali has resumed control of the .ml domain again, it potentially has access to information like:

 Staffing lists at US bases

 The travel plans for the US Army’s highest-ranking officer, and

 Even corrosion problems impacting Australian F-35s.

We didn’t need a reminder, but we got one anyway: national security systems can actually be pretty fragile, because ultimately they’re made up of people. And people make mistakes. Big ones.

Also worth noting:

Reportedly, none of the information sent to Mali was classified (such info is typically sent through separate encrypted systems).

Unclassified info can still offer valuable insights to an adversary.

I am not an IT guy, but maybe block outgoing emails to certain addresses/countries or rather limit them to only verified ones?

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11665]

russia is excellent on d.  now they are playing defense.  lot of wishcasting on how the amassing of additional troops for russia means russia is doomed.  we are in for a long haul, gentlemen.