Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[SimonBolivar 11031]

45 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

 

What is the Germans reticence to arm the Ukraine about?

Edited January 26, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[gmr548 16681]

I agree that the Russian play is to make a thunder run to the left bank of the Dnieper and demand honorable surrender.  They'll get there in a week and have Kyiv under their guns.  And then they'll demand cession of Crimea and maybe the Donbas.  And a constitutional amendment codifying neutrality.  Probably the right to base troops there.  And perhaps some constitutional structure that ensures a pro-Moscow government.  
But what if the Ukrainian government says "no."  What if they evacuate the government to Lviv and say "no."
I get that that's a tough answer.  And it's probably the irrational answer.  But sometimes in war belligerents do the irrational thing.  Like sometimes, they just say "Nuts."
In that case, what the fuck do the Russians do?  Conquer the entire country?  That's going to be a tough one, given that it'll be a country with an active insurgency that is outfitted with a 21st Century version of Lend-Lease.  It's not something that can't pull off.  But it's also something that probably requires Russia to devote such a large percentage of its ground forces as to make any further aggression impossible.
I don't know, pooty--take your shot, bro.  But there are a lot of ways that this could go south.

That’s where I’m at. No one can stop Russia from advancing into Ukraine if they decide that’s the move. And it’s not worth getting into a shooting fight over. But it can be made an incredibly costly endeavor for them.

[gernblansten 3254]

11 hours ago, Parliament said:

I'm referring to this:

 

"Come at me, Bro."

Piss on that.  Send in Blue Thunder.

 

[Poe It Up 126]

49 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Because Germay relies on Russian natural gas to keep them from freezing to death.

Yeah, turns out making yourself beholden to a sociopathic dictator has its downsides. 

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

We're going to fuck this up, aren't we?

 

[Trey3216 15450]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Maybe they meant "helmuts."

My brother-in-law's grandma dates a guy named Helmut, so this hits close to his home.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Because Germay relies on Russian natural gas to keep them from freezing to death.

But even on that front, Russia needs Germany more in the long term. If Russia did anything to harm that relationship and it caused short-term harm for Germans, Germany would find a non-Russian solution that would harm Russia for decades.

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

12 hours ago, Parliament said:

I'm referring to this:

 

"Come at me, Bro."

I don’t think he understood that  “ Russian T-something” referred to tank destinations. 

[Armybrat 41319]

6 hours ago, Superhero said:

My parents live in Taiwan and my dad follows China / Taiwan relationship pretty closely. He doesn't think there will be a shooting war within the next 5 years. By then, he'll be 86 and not really give a shit.

That said, I don't think the US would get into a fight with China over Taiwan. Even with closer relations with Taiwan the past few years, the most likely scenario is they sell Taiwan more advanced weaponry to counter a Chinese invasion, maybe send in some "advisors" to have a presence there, but there won't be any shots fired directly at each other.

Taiwan's probability of fully repelling a Chinese invasion is 0%. China has a bigger air force which can take out Taiwan's air force, navy, anti-ship missiles in a blitz. They can mine the ports and strangle Taiwan's imports and exports. They may lose a few planes and ships along the way, but they can overwhelm the island with numbers.

At this point, the US is at a disadvantage. China has more economic leverage on the US than the other way around. China controls a lot of the rare earth and other metals needed for batteries; they have a trading surplus with the US because we can't get enough of their cheap iphone cables. They are also investing heavily in South America and Africa which can absorb some of their exports. The Chinese people are pretty patriotic at this point, and would support the government if they do decide to invade Taiwan. My hope is when that happens, the US will be open to Taiwan "refugees", I'm saving up money to take care of them in case they ever have to move here.

I’ll be willing to take in Kyo and Deiko, our maids when we lived in Taipei 65 years ago...

 

 

[RPM 26560]

Go on...

[Shady Ray 1633]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

@Shady Ray

What is the Germans reticence to arm the Ukraine about?

I haven’t followed this at all but that seems pretty minimal as far as involvement goes and sort of duplicitous to not do in an attempt to help an ally out. 
What gives there?

It is driven by a few things. First, Germany has a long standing, codified govt policy of not delivering arms to conflict zones unless it has a formal security agreement with such a country, mainly through NATO. This, of course, arises out of German post-WW2 pacifism.
 

Secondly, there are historical complexities within the German identity of doing anything that can be seen as fomenting/contributing to war in that particular stretch of land. The German psyche simply does not want to be involved in this, as in the German mind, the area between the Dnieper and Stalingrad WAS World War 2. That is what the German mind immediately goes to when that conflict is brought up…it isn’t D-Day, it isn’t the Western Front, it isn’t the fall of Berlin, it isn’t the Nazi occupation of Western Europe…it is fighting Russians within the space between those two geographic points that is where the complete trajectory of the German existence changed. So even on top of a relatively “peacenik” culture, the geographic history there is one of high significance.
 

Thirdly, the Germans do not view the Ukrainians as allies. This is a misconception in the US. They view Ukraine as a source of massive corruption, immeasurable chaos, unpredictable, and essentially merely a “friend-of-a-friend”, with the common friend being the US. I am being quite literal when I say that literally every single summit, supportive statement, transfer of billions of Euros from the Germans to the Ukrainians is done out of one, single consideration and that is as a nod to the relationship with the US, which the Germans do value. The average German citizen, the German state, and German industry want nothing to do with Ukraine in any way whatsoever. Germany will kill any effort whatsoever to integrate the Ukrainians into either EU or NATO. 
 

Fourthly, it would go a long way in pushing Germany into an actively adverse camp from Russia, which is not want Germany wants. German sees this event as fleeting and that good, productive, profitable relations with Russia will pick up where they left off once this dies down. By actively arming Ukraine, that becomes much more difficult from a PR perspective.
 

And finally - and this is a very, very sensitive point both within Germany - the images of German weaponry in the hands of certain Ukrainian front-line troops will be a public relations disaster here that no government here will be able to withstand. The background here is simple…a significant percentage (but by no means a majority) of the most effective fighting forces on the Ukrainian side are open neo-nazis. This fact is massively overstated and exploited in propaganda by the Russians, but it is also significantly downplayed by the Americans and Brits and in related English-language media coverage.

 

Specifically re the Azov Battalion, although there are others, which is a very large conglomeration of very effective troops numbers estimated now to be the size of two brigades, is one of the most effective fighting forces in Ukraine, and many of its members are openly Neo-nazi. A couple of years ago they were officially absorbed as a distinct unit within the larger Ukrainian military, but they have a high degree of continued autonomy and even with all their ideological transgressions, the Ukrainian military would be at a huge disadvantage without them. They are particularly effective military units. 
 

But, that said, Azov fights officially under the Banner of the Wolfsangel, which is a nazi symbol that is illegal in Germany. They march annually commemorating the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS, they are adorned with Nazi regalia, they venerate Nazi-Collaborator Stepan Bandera, and they are vocal in their affinity for many tenets of National Socialism. Their ex-leader/political head, Andriy Biletsky, who was actually the former Deputy of the Ukrainian parliament AFTER the war which made him famous as a neo-nazi, and still commands significant influence in the Ukrainian Right has even talked about their duty being “to lead the White races of the world against a final crusade against the Semite-led untermenschen.” So basically, this is a very effective fighting group made up of some very, very bad people. The Guardian had an article just after the war in 2014 about how much of a connundrum this is for the Ukrainians:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/azov-far-right-fighters-ukraine-neo-nazis

 

In fact, the German Ambassador to Ukraine even had to issue a formal statement last April condemning the Ukrainians for continuing to allow marches commemorating the SS Galicia, particularly since those marches had reached Kiev (they used to just occur in the west of Ukraine, such as Lviv). The highly influential German public broadcaster, ZDF, ran stories on primetime here about how significant Neo-Nazism was in Azov Battalion and a few other special forces units, and they posted pictures of these battalions wearing SS regalia, adorning their military gear with the Swastika, Totenkopf, SS runes, Wolfangel, etc. 
 

The Canadians are dealing with their own scandal relating to this right now, in fact, and as you can see in the Ottowa Post, the scandal is not ONLY that NATO advisors were knowingly training Neo-nazis, it is that THEY KNEW about it over a year before meeting with them and were actively trying to find ways to keep it from the press as part of their plans in lead-up to the meeting. You will also see images in both articles that come from some of the TV programs put out by German public broadcaster, ZDF. I don't want to post them myself, as that shit can get dicey here.

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/national/10-3-podcast-canadian-officials-under-fire-after-meeting-with-ukrainian-battalion-unit-linked-to-neo-nazis

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/canadian-officials-who-met-with-ukrainian-unit-linked-to-neo-nazis-feared-exposure-by-news-media-documents

 

Even American politicians like the late John Conyers and current rep Ro Khanna have raised serious concerns about this. The truth is that probably no more than 15% of the overall Ukrainian army are Neo-nazis, but a significant percentage of the most effective elements of the Ukrainian forces are. The JPost article I posted below gets into this in depth, and addresses the Simon Wiesenthal Center's deep concerns over this.

 

I do want to note that I am somewhat uncomfortable getting into this, as it is frequently exploited by Russians to broadly condemn the entirety of the Ukrainian military as Neo-nazis, so I will leave some reputable, familiar American links below to explain some of this in better detail. And I am not saying that the Russians are correct here by any means in asserting that this is all of the Ukrainian’s viewpoint…but it is certainly there and it is known by the Germans. The Nation article is very well-sourced and particularly damning.
 

Ukraine's Neo-Nazi Problem: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary-idUSKBN1GV2TY

https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/US-lifts-ban-on-funding-neo-Nazi-Ukrainian-militia-441884

https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/neo-nazis-far-right-ukraine/

https://www.jta.org/2018/04/29/global/nazi-symbols-salutes-display-ukrainian-nationalist-march

 

There are endless reports of this. You can take from it what you like, and I am not going to argue about how widespread this ideology really is, but in all honesty, the Germans are very, very uncomfortable with this. Not only because of the geo-strategic issues relating to Russia that I touched on above, but because anyone who actually follows this understands that it is not just a possibility, but a probability, that Ukraine collapses internally in the very near future given the external pressures, resulting in some kind of civil war...and what will the Germans be seen to have done? Armed Neo-Nazis who turn weapons on other Ukrainians. To the Germans, this is a powder keg where they can easily envision news stories of civil war in Ukraine, with neo-nazis holding freshly produced German weapons. Not good, Bob. Not good.

 

I mentioned in an earlier post that I frequently visit the cemetery of my wife's family to tend to traditional, German customary duties towards dead relatives' graves. Well, one side of the family is buried about 50 yards from the above referenced Nazi-Collaborator Stepan Bandera in one of the most idyllic well-known cemeteries in town. The grave is CONSTANTLY adorned by Ukrainian nationalists with imagery that is illegal under the German Strafgesetzbuch (prohibition on Nazi imagery) and the cemetery authorities have to come out weekly to clean it all up. Every, single, week. It is awful. But my point in saying that is that the correlation between the Ukrainians and that ideology is not a huge stretch for the Germans, because, frankly, they see it themselves in graffiti and news stories. In fact, you will sometimes hear, "and what when this falls into the hands of the Banderites?"...it is a real consideration here.
 

And, in my opinion, if the US starts to push too hard on this the Germans will start to run english-language stories in the media pointing this out to take the heat off. The only reason they haven’t specifically mentioned this is out of deference to the US, but the groundwork is already laid domestically. The Germans know that this element is significant in certain pockets of the Ukrainian forces. 

Edited January 26, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Telegraph_it 3376]

4 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

First, Germany has a long standing, codified govt policy of not delivering arms to conflict zones unless it has a formal security agreement with such a country, mainly through NATO. This, of course, arises out of German post-WW2 pacifism.

How does Egypt qualify? Out of the list on the link below Egypt was the only one that seemed interesting. 

https://www.dw.com/en/german-weapons-exports-hit-record-with-bumper-egypt-sales/a-60466572

 

[gmr548 16681]

Interesting context @Shady Ray - had no idea about the Neo Nazi element. Certainly helps understand the German position.

[gsoda3 3358]

32 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I’ll be willing to take in Kyo and Deiko, our maids when we lived in Taipei 65 years ago.

were they japanese or aboriginal?

[Shady Ray 1633]

13 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

How does Egypt qualify? Out of the list on the link below Egypt was the only one that seemed interesting. 

https://www.dw.com/en/german-weapons-exports-hit-record-with-bumper-egypt-sales/a-60466572

 

Yeah, IMO that move by the German government is complete horseshit. They got around it by claiming that Egypt only played a tangential role in the Yemen conflict, as they were not actively involved and were essentially acting in the same way as the US was vis a vis the Saudi-led campaign...specifically that the Egyptians were indirect participants and not directly involved in hostilities.

 

But that is a stretch, IMO, and the new government is supposedly stopping sales to Egypt. But you are right...that is a bizarre outlier.

[Poe It Up 126]

Germany thinks they’re going to look like nazis for stopping Putin from taking Ukraine as lebensraum? That’s really pathetic. 

[Brisketexan 106618]

1 hour ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

We're going to fuck this up, aren't we?

 

Maybe.  Maybe not.

But it might be helpful to list out what our options are, based on the chess board as it stands.  It doesn't matter how that chess board got set up, who may have made bad moves or good moves in the past -- the board as it stands today is what we step into and have to deal with.  So, based on the positioning of the pieces?  What are our plays?  And what are the pros and cons of those plays?

Maybe it would help to list them all in one place, but I think most all of them have been discussed in this thread, and the consensus seems to be that there aren't any great plays here.  There are probably some that are better than others, but our ability to prevent a violent outcome seems limited.  Not impossible, but not great.

If anyone (Shady? 956? Inka?) wants to list out the primary options in one place, that might be an interesting prompt  for further discussion.

[Parliament 14559]

Yes, but I understand it.  The German Nazi's were real shitbags, and the Allies fucked them up good for it.  They still have PTSD.

[Ghost of LL 15664]

19 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Yes, but I understand it.  The German Nazi's were real shitbags, and the Allies fucked them up good for it.  They still have PTSD.

So apparently, the Nazis are bad.

[Armybrat 41319]

29 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

were they japanese or aboriginal?

Both aboriginal. First amah was Japanese.

[Poe It Up 126]

Yes, let’s all play the world’s smallest violin for Germany. They’ve been economically bullying the smaller countries of Europe for years, especially during the currency crisis. Now another big boy has shown up and what do they do? They kowtow because of how it could be perceived. It’s completely fucking laughable and they will be rightly mocked for it. 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Maybe.  Maybe not.

But it might be helpful to list out what our options are, based on the chess board as it stands.  It doesn't matter how that chess board got set up, who may have made bad moves or good moves in the past -- the board as it stands today is what we step into and have to deal with.  So, based on the positioning of the pieces?  What are our plays?  And what are the pros and cons of those plays?

Maybe it would help to list them all in one place, but I think most all of them have been discussed in this thread, and the consensus seems to be that there aren't any great plays here.  There are probably some that are better than others, but our ability to prevent a violent outcome seems limited.  Not impossible, but not great.

If anyone (Shady? 956? Inka?) wants to list out the primary options in one place, that might be an interesting prompt  for further discussion.

So, couldn't we fly over about 1,000 fighters and park them in easy range of the border and wouldn't that pretty much shut all this shit down while being by far the least risky military engagement for the US?  Like- nobody in the world is even close to parity with us when it comes to the skies, right?  And combined with whatever anti-aircraft the Ukranians have that should be enough to more or less decimate Russia in the air, right?  And if we own the sky, and the Ukrainians are pretty good on the ground this becomes our lowest cost way of likely keeping Russia from jumping off, doesn't it?

Other options as I see them

Do more or less nothing. Abdicate the Ukraine to Putin, hope that appeases him (costs us nothing tangibly but probably isn't helpful to the idea of US- greatest friend worst nightmare enemy that is helpful in foreign policy)

Economic sanctions.  That's probably next to nothing.

Commitment to air superiority- maybe stops Russia from jumping off?  Probably not super costly in American blood or treasure.  Dog fights in the air are cool?  I don't know

Put boots on the ground like we do in South Korea- not enough to stop Russia, but enough to be a deterrent in the sense that we are essentially giving them a hostage that they'd better not fuck with or it could lead to total war.

Total commitment to Ukraine sovereignty with men, machines etc to match.  Probably keeps Russia from jumping off. If it doesn't we are at war with a great power with a ton of nukes.  Maybe with a slight possibility of kick starting WW3- especially if the Chicoms decide they want a piece of the action, if the Norks keep getting frisky and maybe mix in a little Iran action.  Sounds like a Tom Clancy novel or something.  

 

This is off the top of my head and I'm basically completely uninformed about why this is all going on and what the deal is.  LIke the talk about not mattering how we got here I'm going to stipulate that I have no idea what we should do from a moral perspective, but if the goal is to keep Ukraine sovereign, while not seeming to abandon them and waste as little American resources as possible... well- those seem like the options to me. 

[crash_davis 23465]

basically a lot of posturing and bluffing to see who blinks first? i still think Putin pulls a Crazy Ivan and attacks because it's 2022, why not add to the list of shit to drag the world down. he did with Crimea and no one did shit. we and europe are more united this time to at least appear to be ready to push back. 

[InkaUtexas 26800]

14 hours ago, Parliament said:

I'm referring to this:

 

"Come at me, Bro."

Mean Motherfucker. 

Lets do this before we retire the A-10. 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

1 hour ago, Shady Ray said:

It is driven by a few things. First, Germany has a long standing, codified govt policy of not delivering arms to conflict zones unless it has a formal security agreement with such a country, mainly through NATO. This, of course, arises out of German post-WW2 pacifism.
 

Secondly, there are historical complexities within the German identity of doing anything that can be seen as fomenting/contributing to war in that particular stretch of land. The German psyche simply does not want to be involved in this, as in the German mind, the area between the Dnieper and Stalingrad WAS World War 2. That is what the German mind immediately goes to when that conflict is brought up…it isn’t D-Day, it isn’t the Western Front, it isn’t the fall of Berlin, it isn’t the Nazi occupation of Western Europe…it is fighting Russians within the space between those two geographic points that is where the complete trajectory of the German existence changed. So even on top of a relatively “peacenik” culture, the geographic history there is one of high significance.
 

Thirdly, the Germans do not view the Ukrainians as allies. This is a misconception in the US. They view Ukraine as a source of massive corruption, immeasurable chaos, unpredictable, and essentially merely a “friend-of-a-friend”, with the common friend being the US. I am being quite literal when I say that literally every single summit, supportive statement, transfer of billions of Euros from the Germans to the Ukrainians is done out of one, single consideration and that is as a nod to the relationship with the US, which the Germans do value. The average German citizen, the German state, and German industry want nothing to do with Ukraine in any way whatsoever. Germany will kill any effort whatsoever to integrate the Ukrainians into either EU or NATO. 
 

Fourthly, it would go a long way in pushing Germany into an actively adverse camp from Russia, which is not want Germany wants. German sees this event as fleeting and that good, productive, profitable relations with Russia will pick up where they left off once this dies down. By actively arming Ukraine, that becomes much more difficult from a PR perspective.
 

And finally - and this is a very, very sensitive point both within Germany - the images of German weaponry in the hands of certain Ukrainian front-line troops will be a public relations disaster here that no government here will be able to withstand. The background here is simple…a significant percentage (but by no means a majority) of the most effective fighting forces on the Ukrainian side are open neo-nazis. This fact is massively overstated and exploited in propaganda by the Russians, but it is also significantly downplayed by the Americans and Brits and in related English-language media coverage.

 

Specifically re the Azov Battalion, although there are others, which is a very large conglomeration of very effective troops numbers estimated now to be the size of two brigades, is one of the most effective fighting forces in Ukraine, and many of its members are openly Neo-nazi. A couple of years ago they were officially absorbed as a distinct unit within the larger Ukrainian military, but they have a high degree of continued autonomy and even with all their ideological transgressions, the Ukrainian military would be at a huge disadvantage without them. They are particularly effective military units. 
 

But, that said, Azov fights officially under the Banner of the Wolfsangel, which is a nazi symbol that is illegal in Germany. They march annually commemorating the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS, they are adorned with Nazi regalia, they venerate Nazi-Collaborator Stepan Bandera, and they are vocal in their affinity for many tenets of National Socialism. Their ex-leader/political head, Andriy Biletsky, who was actually the former Deputy of the Ukrainian parliament AFTER the war which made him famous as a neo-nazi, and still commands significant influence in the Ukrainian Right has even talked about their duty being “to lead the White races of the world against a final crusade against the Semite-led untermenschen.” So basically, this is a very effective fighting group made up of some very, very bad people. The Guardian had an article just after the war in 2014 about how much of a connundrum this is for the Ukrainians:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/azov-far-right-fighters-ukraine-neo-nazis

 

In fact, the German Ambassador to Ukraine even had to issue a formal statement last April condemning the Ukrainians for continuing to allow marches commemorating the SS Galicia, particularly since those marches had reached Kiev (they used to just occur in the west of Ukraine, such as Lviv). The highly influential German public broadcaster, ZDF, ran stories on primetime here about how significant Neo-Nazism was in Azov Battalion and a few other special forces units, and they posted pictures of these battalions wearing SS regalia, adorning their military gear with the Swastika, Totenkopf, SS runes, Wolfangel, etc. 
 

The Canadians are dealing with their own scandal relating to this right now, in fact, and as you can see in the Ottowa Post, the scandal is not ONLY that NATO advisors were knowingly training Neo-nazis, it is that THEY KNEW about it over a year before meeting with them and were actively trying to find ways to keep it from the press as part of their plans in lead-up to the meeting. You will also see images in both articles that come from some of the TV programs put out by German public broadcaster, ZDF. I don't want to post them myself, as that shit can get dicey here.

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/national/10-3-podcast-canadian-officials-under-fire-after-meeting-with-ukrainian-battalion-unit-linked-to-neo-nazis

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/canadian-officials-who-met-with-ukrainian-unit-linked-to-neo-nazis-feared-exposure-by-news-media-documents

 

Even American politicians like the late John Conyers and current rep Ro Khanna have raised serious concerns about this. The truth is that probably no more than 15% of the overall Ukrainian army are Neo-nazis, but a significant percentage of the most effective elements of the Ukrainian forces are. The JPost article I posted below gets into this in depth, and addresses the Simon Wiesenthal Center's deep concerns over this.

 

I do want to note that I am somewhat uncomfortable getting into this, as it is frequently exploited by Russians to broadly condemn the entirety of the Ukrainian military as Neo-nazis, so I will leave some reputable, familiar American links below to explain some of this in better detail. And I am not saying that the Russians are correct here by any means in asserting that this is all of the Ukrainian’s viewpoint…but it is certainly there and it is known by the Germans. The Nation article is very well-sourced and particularly damning.
 

Ukraine's Neo-Nazi Problem: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary-idUSKBN1GV2TY

https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/US-lifts-ban-on-funding-neo-Nazi-Ukrainian-militia-441884

https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/neo-nazis-far-right-ukraine/

https://www.jta.org/2018/04/29/global/nazi-symbols-salutes-display-ukrainian-nationalist-march

 

There are endless reports of this. You can take from it what you like, and I am not going to argue about how widespread this ideology really is, but in all honesty, the Germans are very, very uncomfortable with this. Not only because of the geo-strategic issues relating to Russia that I touched on above, but because anyone who actually follows this understands that it is not just a possibility, but a probability, that Ukraine collapses internally in the very near future given the external pressures, resulting in some kind of civil war...and what will the Germans be seen to have done? Armed Neo-Nazis who turn weapons on other Ukrainians. To the Germans, this is a powder keg where they can easily envision news stories of civil war in Ukraine, with neo-nazis holding freshly produced German weapons. Not good, Bob. Not good.

 

I mentioned in an earlier post that I frequently visit the cemetery of my wife's family to tend to traditional, German customary duties towards dead relatives' graves. Well, one side of the family is buried about 50 yards from the above referenced Nazi-Collaborator Stepan Bandera in one of the most idyllic well-known cemeteries in town. The grave is CONSTANTLY adorned by Ukrainian nationalists with imagery that is illegal under the German Strafgesetzbuch (prohibition on Nazi imagery) and the cemetery authorities have to come out weekly to clean it all up. Every, single, week. It is awful. But my point in saying that is that the correlation between the Ukrainians and that ideology is not a huge stretch for the Germans, because, frankly, they see it themselves in graffiti and news stories. In fact, you will sometimes hear, "and what when this falls into the hands of the Banderites?"...it is a real consideration here.
 

And, in my opinion, if the US starts to push too hard on this the Germans will start to run english-language stories in the media pointing this out to take the heat off. The only reason they haven’t specifically mentioned this is out of deference to the US, but the groundwork is already laid domestically. The Germans know that this element is significant in certain pockets of the Ukrainian forces. 

Thanks a lot for this.  It was what I hoped for when I @'d you.  Appreciate the context and perspective.  I don't think I like most of it from the Germans perspective but I've never been a big fan of theirs so that's not particularly surprising.  This all seems like their doing by refusing to get on board the nuclear train power wise. I'm firmly team England when it comes to Europe, and I've never ever in my life thought I'd say this but I think I might be becoming team France as it pertains to the continent.  The Nazi stuff is very interesting- how much do you think that's driving it and how much do you think is just going to be an after the fact justification if Russia goes in raw on the Ukraine?

[InkaUtexas 26800]

I have always been Team France. They stayed with us across Africa and did not run from Afghanistan like the Brits did. 

This came across my playlist today. Damn I love the Clash. 

It's up to you not to heed the call-up
'N' you must not act the way you were brought up
Who knows the reasons why you have grown up?
Who knows the plans or why they were drawn up?
It's up to you not to heed the call-up
I don't want to die!
It's up to you not to hear the call-up
I don't want to kill!
For he who will die
Is he who will kill
Maybe I want to see the wheat fields
Over Kiev and down to the sea
All the young people down the ages
They gladly marched off to die
Proud city fathers used to watch them
Tears in their eyes
There is a rose that I want to live for
Although, God knows, I may not have met her
There is a dance an' I should be with her
There is a town - unlike any other

[Shady Ray 1633]

33 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Thanks a lot for this.  It was what I hoped for when I @'d you.  Appreciate the context and perspective.  I don't think I like most of it from the Germans perspective but I've never been a big fan of theirs so that's not particularly surprising.  This all seems like their doing by refusing to get on board the nuclear train power wise. I'm firmly team England when it comes to Europe, and I've never ever in my life thought I'd say this but I think I might be becoming team France as it pertains to the continent.  The Nazi stuff is very interesting- how much do you think that's driving it and how much do you think is just going to be an after the fact justification if Russia goes in raw on the Ukraine?

I think the Nazi piece is the least "front-and-center" in people's minds, so therefore, the least of the drivers...but I do think it is very much in the front of the mind of important politicians who are going to have deal with potential blowback of this. But the energy supply is far and away the biggest thing on people's minds with respect to getting involved, and therefore the risk of being completely adverse to Russia. Power supply issues will shake Germany to its core. We are not prepared for it, nor is our massively industrial-based economy.

 

So I don't think the Nazi issue will be used as a justification by anyone if Russia goes, as no one believes that the majority of Ukrainians are Nazis deserving Russian aggression...but the Nazi piece is very significant in the narrow parameters of the issue of weapons supply. There is a direct, easy-to-make link there and it is something that opposition politicians could easily drive home if shit goes bad over there within Ukrainian domestic affairs, which I think most German officials know is the inevitable outcome here, whether Russia goes or not. In fact, it hasn't really been a topic in any of the big papers since this thing started  a few months back, but it definitely was over the past few years.

 

But I don't think anyone here will justify any aggression by Russia on those grounds. 

 

Re France, I agree. They are using this situation ver, very effectively in terms of Continental politics at the moment. If Macron makes progress today in these meetings in Paris with France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia, and if that can continue to a peaceful resolution without aggression, he will have a lot of momentum to get what he wants with respect to this kind of double-barrelled EU that he envisions; specifically with French as the leader on a common EU military/foreign policy, and Germany retaining its chokehold on EU economic and monetary matters. And if he doesn't succeed, and Russia goes anyway, he is still using this very well to elevate himself into the void left by Merkel over EU politics. He has been seen as a competent mid-atlanticist by the Western European chateratti.

 

The double-edged-sword for the US if they French take that lead, yes, the Europeans will start to be more disposed to using military muscle, but they will also actively crave chances to "go their own way" and demonstrate independence from the US. The spirit of de Gaulle is never that far away from that crew over there.

Edited January 26, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Brothahorn 10096]

I think it is very likely that the US and the French/German/Italian "consortium" are getting closer to a potential “post-invasion” sanctions package that is digestible for the consortium, but mainstream German-language media is explicitly reporting this morning that NS2, O&G and bank sanctions remain firmly off the table for the Germans, as well as weapons shipments to Ukraine.

How effective will any sanctions be if all of this is already off the table? What's the point?

[Parliament 14559]

1 hour ago, crash_davis said:

 i still think Putin pulls a Crazy Ivan...

To the left or to the right?!

[956 Worldwide 35516]

The U.S. desperately wants a unified agreement on any sanctions that might be levied among NATO Allies.  That’s absolutely the case and it’s one of the main reasons for all this back and forth diplomacy.  That being said, it’s important to remember the state of play with NS2.  U.S. sanctions are very much in place against that pipeline, and Biden waived them in an attempt to get Germany to come around on some other stuff.  Those sanctions, if levied couldn’t turn it OFF exactly, but it would make life very awful and expensive for important German entities that operate it.

The U.S. putting that back into play will never be explicitly threatened to Germany. But Biden doesn’t have to.  Congress can absolutely override Biden’s waiver, and in the aftermath of emotions running high if Russia does invade, it is very easy to see how Biden would be “unable” to convince all of his caucus to not team with Republicans do just that.  Especially if there’s a perception that Germany isn’t worth courting anymore. A rare instance when the division of powers can be convenient if navigated carefully. 
 

 

[SimonBolivar 11031]

1 hour ago, Brothahorn said:

 

How effective will any sanctions be if all of this is already off the table? What's the point?

 

The US has tradionally been able to levy incredibly tough sanctions on Russia. Putin knows that and has built protections in his economy to help ease these pressures (like foreign currency reserves), but most people seem to think that sanctions would severely hurt the Russian economy like they usually do.

Edited January 26, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[Shady Ray 1633]

Looks like the US has delivered its written response to the Russians. Details of the response aren't going to be released, but the tone over the next couple of days will be very telling.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/nato-us-send-written-response-on-russias-security-demands/a-60567276

 

[Enchubben 5598]

Spoiler

3 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

It is driven by a few things. First, Germany has a long standing, codified govt policy of not delivering arms to conflict zones unless it has a formal security agreement with such a country, mainly through NATO. This, of course, arises out of German post-WW2 pacifism.
 

Secondly, there are historical complexities within the German identity of doing anything that can be seen as fomenting/contributing to war in that particular stretch of land. The German psyche simply does not want to be involved in this, as in the German mind, the area between the Dnieper and Stalingrad WAS World War 2. That is what the German mind immediately goes to when that conflict is brought up…it isn’t D-Day, it isn’t the Western Front, it isn’t the fall of Berlin, it isn’t the Nazi occupation of Western Europe…it is fighting Russians within the space between those two geographic points that is where the complete trajectory of the German existence changed. So even on top of a relatively “peacenik” culture, the geographic history there is one of high significance.
 

Thirdly, the Germans do not view the Ukrainians as allies. This is a misconception in the US. They view Ukraine as a source of massive corruption, immeasurable chaos, unpredictable, and essentially merely a “friend-of-a-friend”, with the common friend being the US. I am being quite literal when I say that literally every single summit, supportive statement, transfer of billions of Euros from the Germans to the Ukrainians is done out of one, single consideration and that is as a nod to the relationship with the US, which the Germans do value. The average German citizen, the German state, and German industry want nothing to do with Ukraine in any way whatsoever. Germany will kill any effort whatsoever to integrate the Ukrainians into either EU or NATO. 
 

Fourthly, it would go a long way in pushing Germany into an actively adverse camp from Russia, which is not want Germany wants. German sees this event as fleeting and that good, productive, profitable relations with Russia will pick up where they left off once this dies down. By actively arming Ukraine, that becomes much more difficult from a PR perspective.
 

And finally - and this is a very, very sensitive point both within Germany - the images of German weaponry in the hands of certain Ukrainian front-line troops will be a public relations disaster here that no government here will be able to withstand. The background here is simple…a significant percentage (but by no means a majority) of the most effective fighting forces on the Ukrainian side are open neo-nazis. This fact is massively overstated and exploited in propaganda by the Russians, but it is also significantly downplayed by the Americans and Brits and in related English-language media coverage.

 

Specifically re the Azov Battalion, although there are others, which is a very large conglomeration of very effective troops numbers estimated now to be the size of two brigades, is one of the most effective fighting forces in Ukraine, and many of its members are openly Neo-nazi. A couple of years ago they were officially absorbed as a distinct unit within the larger Ukrainian military, but they have a high degree of continued autonomy and even with all their ideological transgressions, the Ukrainian military would be at a huge disadvantage without them. They are particularly effective military units. 
 

But, that said, Azov fights officially under the Banner of the Wolfsangel, which is a nazi symbol that is illegal in Germany. They march annually commemorating the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS, they are adorned with Nazi regalia, they venerate Nazi-Collaborator Stepan Bandera, and they are vocal in their affinity for many tenets of National Socialism. Their ex-leader/political head, Andriy Biletsky, who was actually the former Deputy of the Ukrainian parliament AFTER the war which made him famous as a neo-nazi, and still commands significant influence in the Ukrainian Right has even talked about their duty being “to lead the White races of the world against a final crusade against the Semite-led untermenschen.” So basically, this is a very effective fighting group made up of some very, very bad people. The Guardian had an article just after the war in 2014 about how much of a connundrum this is for the Ukrainians:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/azov-far-right-fighters-ukraine-neo-nazis

 

In fact, the German Ambassador to Ukraine even had to issue a formal statement last April condemning the Ukrainians for continuing to allow marches commemorating the SS Galicia, particularly since those marches had reached Kiev (they used to just occur in the west of Ukraine, such as Lviv). The highly influential German public broadcaster, ZDF, ran stories on primetime here about how significant Neo-Nazism was in Azov Battalion and a few other special forces units, and they posted pictures of these battalions wearing SS regalia, adorning their military gear with the Swastika, Totenkopf, SS runes, Wolfangel, etc. 
 

The Canadians are dealing with their own scandal relating to this right now, in fact, and as you can see in the Ottowa Post, the scandal is not ONLY that NATO advisors were knowingly training Neo-nazis, it is that THEY KNEW about it over a year before meeting with them and were actively trying to find ways to keep it from the press as part of their plans in lead-up to the meeting. You will also see images in both articles that come from some of the TV programs put out by German public broadcaster, ZDF. I don't want to post them myself, as that shit can get dicey here.

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/national/10-3-podcast-canadian-officials-under-fire-after-meeting-with-ukrainian-battalion-unit-linked-to-neo-nazis

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/canadian-officials-who-met-with-ukrainian-unit-linked-to-neo-nazis-feared-exposure-by-news-media-documents

 

Even American politicians like the late John Conyers and current rep Ro Khanna have raised serious concerns about this. The truth is that probably no more than 15% of the overall Ukrainian army are Neo-nazis, but a significant percentage of the most effective elements of the Ukrainian forces are. The JPost article I posted below gets into this in depth, and addresses the Simon Wiesenthal Center's deep concerns over this.

 

I do want to note that I am somewhat uncomfortable getting into this, as it is frequently exploited by Russians to broadly condemn the entirety of the Ukrainian military as Neo-nazis, so I will leave some reputable, familiar American links below to explain some of this in better detail. And I am not saying that the Russians are correct here by any means in asserting that this is all of the Ukrainian’s viewpoint…but it is certainly there and it is known by the Germans. The Nation article is very well-sourced and particularly damning.
 

Ukraine's Neo-Nazi Problem: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary-idUSKBN1GV2TY

https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/US-lifts-ban-on-funding-neo-Nazi-Ukrainian-militia-441884

https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/neo-nazis-far-right-ukraine/

https://www.jta.org/2018/04/29/global/nazi-symbols-salutes-display-ukrainian-nationalist-march

 

There are endless reports of this. You can take from it what you like, and I am not going to argue about how widespread this ideology really is, but in all honesty, the Germans are very, very uncomfortable with this. Not only because of the geo-strategic issues relating to Russia that I touched on above, but because anyone who actually follows this understands that it is not just a possibility, but a probability, that Ukraine collapses internally in the very near future given the external pressures, resulting in some kind of civil war...and what will the Germans be seen to have done? Armed Neo-Nazis who turn weapons on other Ukrainians. To the Germans, this is a powder keg where they can easily envision news stories of civil war in Ukraine, with neo-nazis holding freshly produced German weapons. Not good, Bob. Not good.

 

I mentioned in an earlier post that I frequently visit the cemetery of my wife's family to tend to traditional, German customary duties towards dead relatives' graves. Well, one side of the family is buried about 50 yards from the above referenced Nazi-Collaborator Stepan Bandera in one of the most idyllic well-known cemeteries in town. The grave is CONSTANTLY adorned by Ukrainian nationalists with imagery that is illegal under the German Strafgesetzbuch (prohibition on Nazi imagery) and the cemetery authorities have to come out weekly to clean it all up. Every, single, week. It is awful. But my point in saying that is that the correlation between the Ukrainians and that ideology is not a huge stretch for the Germans, because, frankly, they see it themselves in graffiti and news stories. In fact, you will sometimes hear, "and what when this falls into the hands of the Banderites?"...it is a real consideration here.
 

And, in my opinion, if the US starts to push too hard on this the Germans will start to run english-language stories in the media pointing this out to take the heat off. The only reason they haven’t specifically mentioned this is out of deference to the US, but the groundwork is already laid domestically. The Germans know that this element is significant in certain pockets of the Ukrainian forces. 

 

So much crap I have to sort through on other forums on this site, but then reading something as insightful and educational as this makes it all worth it. Thanks for sharing this and your continued posts on the topic.   What is it you do or did again?  You a foreign lobbyist or work for CIA/MI5 or something?

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

33 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

So much crap I have to sort through on other forums on this site, but then reading something as insightful and educational as this makes it all worth it. Thanks for sharing this and your continued posts on the topic.   What is it you do or did again?  You a foreign lobbyist or work for CIA/MI5 or something?

This place really is awesome when it’s not terrible. I like to think I bring both to the table. 

Edited January 26, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[Shady Ray 1633]

2 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

So much crap I have to sort through on other forums on this site, but then reading something as insightful and educational as this makes it all worth it. Thanks for sharing this and your continued posts on the topic.   What is it you do or did again?  You a foreign lobbyist or work for CIA/MI5 or something?

Lawyer, but been in an in-house govt relations role for quite a while now. I help formulate and manage government relations strategy for a large German multinational in a highly regulated industry. Basically get paid to read political/regulatory tea leaves in Germany and Europe in an industry that is very exposed to this fallout from this conflict. Not in one of the immediately identifiable industries like Energy or Defense, but in one very exposed nevertheless. I have direct reports scattered around European capitals with a few in Moscow, so I get a lot of local, informed insight from very capable former ex-govt people as part of the job.

 

Happy to contribute in a small way to the interesting content on this site...God knows I have a karmic duty to do so given how much entertainment Surly and TOS provided me over the last decade or so. Plus, I don't get a chance to interact with other Americans on this subject very often, so it is nice to be able to do that.

[South Austin 53154]

23 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Lawyer, but been in an in-house govt relations role for quite a while now. I help formulate and manage government relations strategy for a large German multinational in a highly regulated industry. Basically get paid to read political/regulatory tea leaves in Germany and Europe in an industry that is very exposed to this fallout from this conflict. Not in one of the immediately identifiable industries like Energy or Defense, but in one very exposed nevertheless. I have direct reports scattered around European capitals with a few in Moscow, so I get a lot of local, informed insight from very capable former ex-govt people as part of the job.

Sounds shady.

[Brisketexan 106618]

2 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

Re France, I agree. They are using this situation ver, very effectively in terms of Continental politics at the moment. If Macron makes progress today in these meetings in Paris with France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia, and if that can continue to a peaceful resolution without aggression, he will have a lot of momentum to get what he wants with respect to this kind of double-barrelled EU that he envisions; specifically with French as the leader on a common EU military/foreign policy, and Germany retaining its chokehold on EU economic and monetary matters. And if he doesn't succeed, and Russia goes anyway, he is still using this very well to elevate himself into the void left by Merkel over EU politics. He has been seen as a competent mid-atlanticist by the Western European chateratti.

 

The double-edged-sword for the US if they French take that lead, yes, the Europeans will start to be more disposed to using military muscle, but they will also actively crave chances to "go their own way" and demonstrate independence from the US. The spirit of de Gaulle is never that far away from that crew over there.

Really fantastic tangent and take on France, all the way around.  I think Macron clearly sees the play here, and is executing it.  As a result, France will increase its strength in directing European policy (particularly militarily), and that will necessarily diminish the US voice in that milieu. 

26 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

I help formulate and manage government relations strategy for a large German multinational in a highly regulated industry. Basically get paid to read political/regulatory tea leaves in Germany and Europe in an industry that is very exposed to this fallout from this conflict. Not in one of the immediately identifiable industries like Energy or Defense, but in one very exposed nevertheless.

I mean, is "international call girl ring" really a "large German mulitnational?"

[NeverMarryAStripper 22241]

It is if you cater to Vic

[956 Worldwide 35516]

34 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Really fantastic tangent and take on France, all the way around.  I think Macron clearly sees the play here, and is executing it.  As a result, France will increase its strength in directing European policy (particularly militarily), and that will necessarily diminish the US voice in that milieu. 

I mean, is "international call girl ring" really a "large German mulitnational?"

It is important to read between the lines with Macron.  When he talks about European strategic autonomy, he means “protections for European (French) defense contractors in EU tenders.” He can’t say that though, so he says European strategic autonomy. 
 

It is important to translate statements into reality. The EU is still working on the creation of a joint EU brigade size (5,000 troops) that the EU can deploy without U.S. assistance out of European theatre.  This has been in the works since the mid-2000s.  It was chosen as a realistic goal and they are really no closer now than they were then. The obstacles here are tremendous to even that modest aim— creating a true strategically autonomous force like Russia would be decades of spending and investment at a level historically unheard of. 
 

The obstructions here are tremendous.  The one nation that could finance this is Germany and they will not.  Simply will not. This is a nation where even relative defense hawks try to claim highway repairs as part of their defense investment (they might be used!) and they STILL can’t scratch two percent.   @ShadyRay will tell you— Germany will not finance the rearmament of Europe in our lifetime. 
 

The other European power that could lift part of this load is the UK and— oops, they are no longer really Europe. They have a toxic aversion to continental cooperation on these things.  They have been running screaming into deeper integration with the U.S. That ship (literally, the Prince of Wales or Queen Elizabeth, which could be used for this) has sailed. 
 

So maybe the French hustle the Spanish, the Dutch, the Belgians, and Italians into this.  The rest of the EU has serious reservations about all of this and is for sure not going to go so far as to risk upsetting the current NATO security architecture. They aren’t stupid, if you are staring at Russia are you going to bet on the leadership and defense capabilities of a Franco-Spain-Italy led consortium or the United States.  And that’s without the political reality of the U.S. still playing an honest broker role as opposed to shoveling more leverage within the EU into Western Europe’s lap. 
 

Macron knows all this.  His goal is to get to even a half-hearted step one of “EU strategic autonomy” which is “Europeans invest in European (French) defense and tech over American.” And that’s where things stop absent a massive reshuffle of balance of power and capability globally. 

Edited January 26, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

Great to read @Shady Ray’s take on this. Very insightful. Danke my man. 

I’ve seen some other folk who post on the Surl who may have a federal government relations role in their work. 
Would be intrigued to read their lenses, especially you orangebloods in DC or other expats. 
We got our own Surly Geopolitical Chatterati going on. 
 

Edited January 26, 2022 by JerrysJheriCurl

[956 Worldwide 35516]

Putting the estimate of 15 percent of Ukraine’s armed forces as neo-Nazis and more in front line units is a reach. The Azov Battalion is a national guard unit that has been given the status of a regiment and probably has around 1,000 members. Statements that 10-20 percent of the Azov Battalion’s members are new-Nazis (claim made by its leadership) may be underestimates— but it’s certain that the entire unit is not committed enough-Nazis.  Ukraine’s armed forces are a bit over 200,000 people.  Even saying that maybe half of Azov is actually neo-Nazi, that’s 500 troops.  Too many neo-Nazis, for sure but hardly 15 percent of the Ukrainian military’s combat-ready force. 

[Brisketexan 106618]

Interesting -- no idea if genuinely true, or if it has any real effect, but interesting.  Belarusian resistance cyber attack to shut down train systems used to transport Russian equipment into Belarus towards ukraine.

 

[956 Worldwide 35516]

One tweet below that kind of encapsulates where Germany is, and also shows how Macron will need to be careful in leveraging this into a push for EU strategic autonomy. The fact of the matter is that Germany is demonstrating why counting on the EU and Germany is a mistake.  Central and Eastern Europe has experience with a Germany that attacks them and has experience with a Germany that refuses to take their security concerns seriously.  They have never had an experience with a Germany that got their back. This was a chance to change that perception and— let’s just say that there’s been no change in perception.  
 

In recent years, here is what Central and Eastern Europe has seen when Germany does decide to throw its weight around politically: demands that they accept Middle Eastern migrants, demands that they give up nuclear power and coal, demands that they accept a Russian pipeline that undermines their security, and fiscal austerity for Greece. (Hint: all those things are bad). 
 

Now, it’s true that these are smaller, poorer countries and they can’t set EU policy.  And they love German subsidies.  But the EU works on consensus and they absolutely can block shit.  And they will block strategic military autonomy (believe it or not the U.S. would be fine with the Europeans building this capacity).  Because while Macron says that this crisis shows the need for the EU to act independently, the lesson that a good third of the bloc is taking away is “these jokers in Brussels and Berlin would happily sell us down the Volga if the Americans weren’t here to put some stiffness in their spines.”

 

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[InkaUtexas 26800]

48 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It is important to read between the lines with Macron.  When he talks about European strategic autonomy, he means “protections for European (French) defense contractors in EU tenders.” He can’t say that though, so he says European strategic autonomy. 
 

It is important to translate statements into reality. The EU is still working on the creation of a joint EU brigade size (5,000 troops) that the EU can deploy without U.S. assistance out of European theatre.  This has been in the works since the mid-2000s.  It was chosen as a realistic goal and they are really no closer now than they were then. The obstacles here are tremendous to even that modest aim— creating a true strategically autonomous force like Russia would be decades of spending and investment at a level historically unheard of. 
 

The obstructions here are tremendous.  The one nation that could finance this is Germany and they will not.  Simply will not. This is a nation where even relative defense hawks try to claim highway repairs as part of their defense investment (they might be used!) and they STILL can’t scratch two percent.   @ShadyRay will tell you— Germany will not finance the rearmament of Europe in our lifetime. 
 

The other European power that could lift part of this load is the UK and— oops, they are no longer really Europe. They have a toxic aversion to continental cooperation on these things.  They have been running screaming into deeper integration with the U.S. That ship (literally, the Prince of Wales or Queen Elizabeth, which could be used for this) has sailed. 
 

So maybe the French hustle the Spanish, the Dutch, the Belgians, and Italians into this.  The rest of the EU has serious reservations about all of this and is for sure not going to go so far as to risk upsetting the current NATO security architecture. They aren’t stupid, if you are staring at Russia are you going to bet on the leadership and defense capabilities of a Franco-Spain-Italy led consortium or the United States.  And that’s without the political reality of the U.S. still playing an honest broker role as opposed to shoveling more leverage within the EU into Western Europe’s lap. 
 

Macron knows all this.  His goal is to get to even a half-hearted step one of “EU strategic autonomy” which is “Europeans invest in European (French) defense and tech over American.” And that’s where things stop absent a massive reshuffle of balance of power and capability globally. 

IFOR 2.0  

[956 Worldwide 35516]

6 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Maybe.  Maybe not.

But it might be helpful to list out what our options are, based on the chess board as it stands.  It doesn't matter how that chess board got set up, who may have made bad moves or good moves in the past -- the board as it stands today is what we step into and have to deal with.  So, based on the positioning of the pieces?  What are our plays?  And what are the pros and cons of those plays?

Maybe it would help to list them all in one place, but I think most all of them have been discussed in this thread, and the consensus seems to be that there aren't any great plays here.  There are probably some that are better than others, but our ability to prevent a violent outcome seems limited.  Not impossible, but not great.

If anyone (Shady? 956? Inka?) wants to list out the primary options in one place, that might be an interesting prompt  for further discussion.

Realistically? Look, Biden has said no U.S. forces to Ukraine and that’s responsible.  Lots of creepily intense geeks have had wet dreams for decades over the idea of a “limited” conventional war between nuclear powers.  No matter how you game it out, everything comes up glowing.  The time to consider a small “tripwire” force was before the crisis and to be honest— even then it would have been dicier than any CINC would be willing to gamble with. 
 

The most promising routes are a unified sanctions package tilting towards the “punishing” end of the spectrum and the current mad dash to make Ukraine into a porcupine that the bear knows it will choke on. Combined with some carrot to incentivize a stand down and a graceful exit that doesn’t involve a complete collapse of confidence in the United States. I honestly believe that if Putin could choose between swallowing all of Ukraine without a shot and with ticker tape parades, or the United States publicly meeting his non-Ukraine related demands— he’d choose the latter and then invade Ukraine anyway down the road. 

[atomheartbevo 90546]

9 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

My brother-in-law's grandma dates a guy named Helmut, so this hits close to his home.  

His name is not "Helmut", it's "The Helmet" and it doesn't refer to his headgear.  Don't tell your brother-in-law that, let him keep on believing that it's just some nice old man named "Helmut".

[956 Worldwide 35516]

Rand Paul hits for the полезный идиот cycle:

- Approving citation of wizened, ancient war goblin Henry Kissinger 

- “Ukraine has a long history of being Russia (no shit, they didn’t like it)

- Deployment of troops to reassure and reinforce Allied nations is the same as going to war with Russia 

- President Trump had it right 

- Ukraine’s REAL problem is high taxes and Big Government 

- Ukraine should just choose to be neutral towards a country that is currently militarily occupying vast swathes of its territory and is directing kinetic actions against its armed forces 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/rand-paul-heres-prevent-war-180055675.html

[TKthunder2 5058]

3 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

Basically get paid to read political/regulatory tea leaves in Germany and Europe in an industry that is very exposed to this fallout from this conflict. Not in one of the immediately identifiable industries like Energy or Defense, but in one very exposed nevertheless.

[956 Worldwide 35516]

@ShadyRay mentioned Bandera a few posts up. It’s important to talk about him and his era if for no other reason than the importance of Bandera and the “Banderovtsi” to Russia’s (effective) propaganda machine in the West and at home.  A few facts about Bandera upfront:

- He was a noxious antisemite and nationalist

- He was in a time and place where virtually every figure of real political importance, from the generally admired (Pilsudski) to the hated (Hitler) was a noxious antisemite

- He collaborated with the Nazis

- He spent a good chunk of the war either under Nazi house arrest or in a Nazi concentration camp because the Nazis didn’t trust him and he spent plenty of time organizing against them

- The Nazis concluded he would just as soon rescue Jews as help with the Final Solution, depending on what advanced his Ukrainian nationalist aims

- He was a product of the most brutalized, blood soaked patch of land at the most brutal, blood soaked time in recorded history

- Its a terrific PR fuckup for Ukrainians to ever mention his name, not to mention completely gross to actually celebrate him 

In short, he is inexcusable but complicated. To really understand the stakes and feelings, you have to dive into what happened in Ukraine in the early 20th century.  Timothy Snyder’s book “Bloodlands” is magisterial, but you can start with the Wikipedia article on the Holodomor. The Ukraine that created Bandera is a Ukraine where 3 million people starved to death in 1932-1933 in a land where wheat hung heavy on the stalk. The kindest explanation is “misguided Soviet industrial policy,” the likeliest is “Soviet leadership wanted to starve dissent in Ukraine to death and did.” 
 

Incidentally, getting a better grasp on that history is the best way to understand why “Ukraine was part of Russia for a long time” is actually an argument FOR supporting their independence. 

[Trey3216 15450]

Danish defense minister looks like she’s about to deploy titties, and I’m 100% behind her on that.