Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Trey3216 15308]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

The big thing it can do is easily handle most of the NATO aerial weapons, rather than making the Ukrainians Jerry rig stuff to their MiGs.  

Not to mention it's pretty adept at close quarters air support for both forward infantry or rear arty batteries.  

[Judge Roybeanbag 11730]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

This is the larger problem with the ATACMs, there simply isn't much of a store of them.  The program was cancelled almost 20 years ago and our stocks are estimated to be around 1k.  This part is entirely a guess, but I'm betting most of our stores are deployed in 2 places, Poland and Taiwan.  So in order to use these you have 2 shitty choices, take them away from Poland and Taiwan and leave either of them potentially vulnerable (I would guess Poland given the situation) or recommence their manufacture; which will take considerable lead time and expense.  Neither of these options really appear to be in play at the moment.  

This is correct and the replacement for them, the PrSM isn’t in full production yet.  So we have a limited stock and no replacement.  Lockheed is producing some few hundred a year but those are going to fill contracts to other countries that they certainly aren’t going to breach.  So not sending ATACMS is more about our deficiencies than not wanting to escalate things, we just don’t want to publicly admit it.

[Trey3216 15308]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

FAFO

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28652]

 

Edited August 17, 2023 by Schulz2.0

[JMFP 1113]

4 hours ago, Bevo said:

Mom and dad can't produce that daughter, can they?

 

[Bevo 13439]

Ahh Porky's Revenge

 

 

 

[Walser 1090]

3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

 

Have the Ukes fully recaptured Robotyne? If not, Admiral Hunter reporting with his 3rd cup.

Gloval went out the airlock.

[Paper_jam 828]

6 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

FAFO

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89046]

So if they get Tokmak under constant artillery fire, and start pushing the Russians out of the Tokmak area....that could help clear the areas west of Tokmak and towards the water.

More importantly, that's 39 miles to Melitopol.  That's HIMARS range, but that's also only 39 miles and starts creeping towards barrel arty range.

Can't wait for the Russian milbloggers to be shitting themselves over that.

 

[Parliament 14017]

Will the UKA have an advantage in arty firepower and counter battery?  Will they be able to just set up shop and start blasting?

[Bevo 13439]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So if they get Tokmak under constant artillery fire, and start pushing the Russians out of the Tokmak area....that could help clear the areas west of Tokmak and towards the water.

More importantly, that's 39 miles to Melitopol.  That's HIMARS range, but that's also only 39 miles and starts creeping towards barrel arty range.

Can't wait for the Russian milbloggers to be shitting themselves over that.

 

I was speaking with a Ukranian today who grew up in the Donbas about 40mi north of the nuclear power plant who said he has never heard of some of the villages they are talking about in the blogs. I told him that I know more cities in Ukraine than Iowa. I should have asked him some more interesting questions - what would you ask a geopolitical expert who grew up in Ukraine?

[atomheartbevo 89046]

4 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Will the UKA have an advantage in arty firepower and counter battery?  Will they be able to just set up shop and start blasting?

They already do in counter-battery - Russians have complained a lot about that.  The stuff they've gotten from the West has generally been more accurate and able to respond much quicker, leading to heavy Russian losses.  Especially with HIMARS in the mix - they've been able to keep those out of range of the Russian barrel artillery, while still able to quickly use it against Russian barrel artillery that the radars located.

[MissingInAction 24426]

2 hours ago, Bevo said:

I was speaking with a Ukranian today who grew up in the Donbas about 40mi north of the nuclear power plant who said he has never heard of some of the villages they are talking about in the blogs. I told him that I know more cities in Ukraine than Iowa. I should have asked him some more interesting questions - what would you ask a geopolitical expert who grew up in Ukraine?

What's the best way to pick up Ukrainian foxes?

Edited August 18, 2023 by MissingInAction

[BamaATL 16252]

20 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I was speaking with a Ukranian today who grew up in the Donbas about 40mi north of the nuclear power plant who said he has never heard of some of the villages they are talking about in the blogs. I told him that I know more cities in Ukraine than Iowa. I should have asked him some more interesting questions - what would you ask a geopolitical expert who grew up in Ukraine?

Just a question from me if possible.  Something I'm not entirely clear on the amount of Ukrainian unity and identity given the number of ethnic groups that actually comprise Ukraine?  For example, would the Ukrainian Tartars consider themselves Tartars who happen to be Ukrainians or vice versa.  Would the conflict have changed any of this in regard to national identity? 

I think it's easy to forget, but from Soviet times lots of people wound up in Ukraine due to forced relocation, migrant work, etc.  How does all that mesh?  

All that would be interesting to know from your acquaintance.  

[Schulz2.0 28652]

Germany investigating the suspected poisoning of a Russian dissident journalist.

 

[Schulz2.0 28652]

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28652]

 

 

 

[MissingInAction 24426]

OK that's some Leroy motherfuckin Jenkins shit right there. 

That tank crew fucks!

[Hook1997 5241]

https://apple.news/ApwiRVaibQfeNg_H37viAdw

Well that sucks if true.  

[Scheiss Meister 8321]

2 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

https://apple.news/ApwiRVaibQfeNg_H37viAdw

Well that sucks if true.  

Who in US intelligence thinks this?  What percentage of the community are they?  There will be a spectrum of thought within the intelligence community, and this may only represent a small part of it.  It would also be exactly what Russian operatives would put out to plant and water the seeds of doubt.

That assertion is interesting, but I'll wait to see what plays out.

[Schulz2.0 28652]

9 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

https://apple.news/ApwiRVaibQfeNg_H37viAdw

Well that sucks if true.  

We seem to have vastly underestimated how much Russia fortified and mined the south. We also asked Ukraine to go out and do combined arms warfare without really giving them the tools to do so. The Russians have had better air capability for a while. We haven't delivered nearly the MBTs, AFVs, IFVs, etc that Ukraine needed. If anything, we should recognize that we underestimated and underdelivered. 

Edited August 18, 2023 by Schulz2.0

[BamaATL 16252]

23 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

We seem to have vastly underestimated how much Russia fortified and mined the south. We also asked Ukraine to go out and do combined arms warfare without really giving them the tools to do so. The Russians have had better air capability for a while. We haven't delivered nearly the MBTs, AFVs, IFVs, etc that Ukraine needed. If anything, we should recognize that we underestimated and underdelivered. 

I'm not giving up hope yet, we have about 6 weeks until the rains, so there is time, but something needs to give soon if they are to make that sort of progress.  Perhaps it's and Alabama vs Texas tradition, every time we play the Ukrainians make huge advances?  After the rains, the south won't see much action until January.  

[Auto Driller 2502]

Regardless of whether it happens within the next 6 weeks or not, we need to be committed to continuing support until it does.

[Schulz2.0 28652]

11 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I'm not giving up hope yet, we have about 6 weeks until the rains, so there is time, but something needs to give soon if they are to make that sort of progress.  Perhaps it's and Alabama vs Texas tradition, every time we play the Ukrainians make huge advances?  After the rains, the south won't see much action until January.  

Maybe by January they'll actually get the Abrams.

[Dahobbs 17251]

8 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

Regardless of whether it happens within the next 6 weeks or not, we need to be committed to continuing support until it does.

Signaling long term weapon deliveries is the best thing we could do to send message to Russia that it isn't going to be able to outlast Ukraine. 

[F250 28529]

That Ukrainian tank pulled a Lt. Speirs.

 

 

[Auto Driller 2502]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Signaling long term weapon deliveries is the best thing we could do to send message to Russia that it isn't going to be able to outlast Ukraine. 

I’m sure the thinking inside Russia is that they just need to last until the presidential election. I don’t mean this as a political comment because I have no idea who will win. But we don’t have a good track record of sticking behind existing foreign policy on changes of administration.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11730]

11 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

that's wrong. we'll have to agree to disagree.

It’s not entirely wrong.  You can’t just throw a few F16s in the air and yell WooHoo! There is a shitload of infrastructure in terms of datalink and sensor networks and radio terminals that you have to have in place or the planes are no better than manned drones.  That infrastructure and combined command and control is not easily learned in a few weeks.  We’re talking 50 years of C2 network development these planes are designed to work within and Ukraine doesn’t have that background yet.  Yet.  We WANT them to have it now but it isn’t something that happens overnight.  Yeah we could give them 10 F16s tomorrow but their effectiveness would be shit without training and network infrastructure.  

[Handcruser 2802]

It’s not entirely wrong.  You can’t just throw a few F16s in the air and yell WooHoo! There is a shitload of infrastructure in terms of datalink and sensor networks and radio terminals that you have to have in place or the planes are no better than manned drones.  That infrastructure and combined command and control is not easily learned in a few weeks.  We’re talking 50 years of C2 network development these planes are designed to work within and Ukraine doesn’t have that background yet.  Yet.  We WANT them to have it now but it isn’t something that happens overnight.  Yeah we could give them 10 F16s tomorrow but their effectiveness would be shit without training and network infrastructure.  

I’m not sure why people don’t understand this.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11730]

2 minutes ago, Handcruser said:

I’m not sure why people don’t understand this.

Well I understand it because I’ve been working in it for 30 years.  I get that the average person doesn’t understand that for every pilot in the sky, there are probably 50 to 100 people on the ground supporting it.   

[Handcruser 2802]

It’s not entirely wrong.  You can’t just throw a few F16s in the air and yell WooHoo! There is a shitload of infrastructure in terms of datalink and sensor networks and radio terminals that you have to have in place or the planes are no better than manned drones.  That infrastructure and combined command and control is not easily learned in a few weeks.  We’re talking 50 years of C2 network development these planes are designed to work within and Ukraine doesn’t have that background yet.  Yet.  We WANT them to have it now but it isn’t something that happens overnight.  Yeah we could give them 10 F16s tomorrow but their effectiveness would be shit without training and network infrastructure.  

I’m not sure why people don’t understand this.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11730]

4 minutes ago, Handcruser said:

I’m not sure why people don’t understand this.

I just told you. Lol. 

[Handcruser 2802]

I just told you. Lol. 

Why don’t they?

[Bevo 13439]

6 minutes ago, Handcruser said:

Why don’t they?

Because no one told them.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11730]

Just now, Bevo said:

Because no one told them.

I’m tellin’ you, man!  

[Judge Roybeanbag 11730]

Seriously though a lot of the stuff we grump about on this thread isn’t just point and shoot.  And remember that up until a couple years ago, right or not, Ukraine wasn’t necessarily a country we wanted to give out top of the line weapons to.  New shit has come to light.  

[Schulz2.0 28652]

27 minutes ago, Handcruser said:

I’m not sure why people don’t understand this.

Uhh, some of do understand its not as easy as just handing F-16s to Ukraine. We're annoyed that we've hemmed and hawwed about giving multiple weapons to Ukraine and generally dragged our feet at every step. We argued for 6+ months that Ukraine didn't need F-16s before reluctantly agreeing that it was the only viable platform for the. We've drug our heels just granting permission for our allies to train Ukrainian pilots.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11730]

1 minute ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Uhh, some of do understand its not as easy as just handing F-16s to Ukraine. We're annoyed that we've hemmed and hawwed about giving multiple weapons to Ukraine and generally dragged our feet at every step. We argued for 6+ months that Ukraine didn't need F-16s before reluctantly agreeing that it was the only viable platform for the. We've drug our heels just granting permission for our allies to train Ukrainian pilots.

It’s a hard truth but part of the reason for that is once you let that cat out of the bag, you’d better win or else your whole allied interoperability network is compromised.   There’s a reason that not a lot of non-nato countries don’t have MIDS terminals or Link 16 capabilities.  

[Schulz2.0 28652]

 

 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11730]

13 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Uhh, some of do understand its not as easy as just handing F-16s to Ukraine. We're annoyed that we've hemmed and hawwed about giving multiple weapons to Ukraine and generally dragged our feet at every step. We argued for 6+ months that Ukraine didn't need F-16s before reluctantly agreeing that it was the only viable platform for the. We've drug our heels just granting permission for our allies to train Ukrainian pilots.

FWIW, I agree that there has been a lot of foot dragging, much of it caused by the political dysfunction here.  If we were a unified front we could have said ok, every weapon and armored vehicle in storage we aren’t going to use for future deployment goes to Ukraine.   But that just isnt possible because the USA can’t agree that we are on wartime footing here.  
 

[Bevo 13439]

8 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

It’s a hard truth but part of the reason for that is once you let that cat out of the bag, you’d better win or else your whole allied interoperability network is compromised.   There’s a reason that not a lot of non-nato countries don’t have MIDS terminals or Link 16 capabilities.  

A lot of countries have F16s:

Middle East

• Bahrain.
• Egypt.
• Israel.
• Iraq.
• Jordan.
• Oman.
• United Arab Emirates.

 

South America

• Chile.
• Venesuela.
• Colombia (future).

 

Asia:

• Indonesia.
• Pakistan.
• Singapore.
• South Korea.
• Taiwan.
• Thailand.

 

 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11730]

14 minutes ago, Bevo said:

A lot of countries have F16s:

Middle East

• Bahrain.
• Egypt.
• Israel.
• Iraq.
• Jordan.
• Oman.
• United Arab Emirates.

 

South America

• Chile.
• Venesuela.
• Colombia (future).

 

Asia:

• Indonesia.
• Pakistan.
• Singapore.
• South Korea.
• Taiwan.
• Thailand.

 

 

True, but none of those countries received, trained and integrated them in an 18 month period.   Also a lot of them are operating on older TDL networks like JTIDS.  I want Ukraine to get F16s as fast as possible, I’m just saying it’s not a simple, fast  process.  

[InkaUtexas 24933]

VeneZUELA please..... And their shit is not flying anymore due to sanctions. 

Train their pilots and maintenance people asap. In the meantime work with allies to get them what they know and are ready to use now. Then backfill everyone with Falcons or  F-35's. Shit there should be F-15's patrolling the Russian Border 24/7.  

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4962]

If they can't take Mariupol before the rains hit, what are the possibilities that they can get close enough to rain terror on the land route to rain enough terror down from the skies to effectively shut off Russia' land route? Obviously that would lead to some intense fighting, but it seems like our cluster munitions have mad a huge difference in the last couple of weeks. Will the increased production across Europe and America be able to supply them with the artillery they need to lay seige on the area without actually holding it?

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4962]

Seems like ATACMS would be pretty useful in that scenario.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11730]

7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

VeneZUELA please..... And their shit is not flying anymore due to sanctions. 

Train their pilots and maintenance people asap. In the meantime work with allies to get them what they know and are ready to use now. Then backfill everyone with Falcons or  F-35's. Shit there should be F-15's patrolling the Russian Border 24/7.  

Here’s a dumbed down but fun read on a former MIG pilot.

https://www.newsweek.com/fighter-jets-pilot-ukraine-poland-f16s-mig29-1804551

[Rimbo 25248]

1 hour ago, Handcruser said:

I’m not sure why people don’t understand this.

 

1 hour ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I just told you. Lol. 

 

[Dahobbs 17251]

19 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Seems like ATACMS would be pretty useful in that scenario.

ATACMS would primarily be used to hit static strategic objectives like supply points. Essentially the same sort of targets Ukraine currently services with GMLRs and at greater distances with Storm Shadow/SCALP. It isn't really the type of weapon you'd use to hit front line targets. Too expensive, too little quantity, and not particularly effective for that role. 

[BamaATL 16252]

42 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

VeneZUELA please..... And their shit is not flying anymore due to sanctions. 

Train their pilots and maintenance people asap. In the meantime work with allies to get them what they know and are ready to use now. Then backfill everyone with Falcons or  F-35's. Shit there should be F-15's patrolling the Russian Border 24/7.  

You do realize we sell these to them, right?  Those countries that donate and then we propose to give them new shit have to agree to pay for said new shit.  Europe hasn't exactly been on it in terms of military spending for a while now, and while they have picked it up a bit, joint strike fighters are a tad on the pricey side.  

Also, to whomever included Taiwan on a list of places where equipment could be donated from, please stop doing that.  

[Pato del Muerto 52114]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

Through the best SAM systems in the world?