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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Nivek

Nivek 16684

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3 hours ago, Braff Zacklin said:

Sure. Attempting a coup against a sociopath and then suddenly reversing his course, saying, "Oops, my bad!," and absconding to Belarus, then Africa, then god knows where.

Totally predictable.

If you don't know why he went to Africa in particular then it seems that maybe you just don't know much about him.   His organization had a lot of interest in Africa as that is a huge revenue stream for Wagner.   It is not out of character for the leader of an organization to travel around during turmoil to his breadbasket to ensure it is still aligned to him.  

 

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atomheartbevo

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7 minutes ago, Nivek said:

If you don't know why he went to Africa in particular then it seems that maybe you just don't know much about him.   His organization had a lot of interest in Africa as that is a huge revenue stream for Wagner.   It is not out of character for the leader of an organization to travel around during turmoil to his breadbasket to ensure it is still aligned to him.  

It's also feeding the conspiracy theories that he had a heads-up that Putin was going to have him killed, so he faked his death and headed off to Africa where he had recently been making preparations.

'scuse me, I need to go dash off a shitty Tom Clancy knock-off novel.

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 29678

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As I recall, it was Lukashenko who guaranteed Prigo’s safety and negotiated the end of the march to Moscow. Last time I heard, Wagner had camps in Belarus. These were not the Wagner guys who gave their toys back to Moscow, but the guys who kept their toys and went to Belarus.   
My question is, do they hold it against Lukashenko in the same way that they hold it against Putin? Hell, rather than attack Moscow they should just take over Belarus. It’d be easier. 

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atomheartbevo

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10 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Sadly, as somewhat of an enthusiast for Russian history and literature, I agree with this. Russia needs its a Germany or Japan style total defeat and rebuild. It needs to be so thoroughly crushed that it never again will believe it is or can be a "great power." 

Wonder if we could be heading towards the 2020's version of The Time of Troubles, and Putin was Ivan the Terrible and Prigozhin was Ivan Ivanovic.

Now we just need our Feodor....one of these two

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atomheartbevo

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2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

As I recall, it was Lukashenko who guaranteed Prigo’s safety and negotiated the end of the march to Moscow. Last time I heard, Wagner had camps in Belarus. These were not the Wagner guys who gave their toys back to Moscow, but the guys who kept their toys and went to Belarus.   
My question is, do they hold it against Lukashenko in the same way that they hold it against Putin? Hell, rather than attack Moscow they should just take over Belarus. It’d be easier. 

Let's game this out.

The remaining Wagner leadership know they are not long for this world. At this point, they know they will be purged, in favor of people that Putin trusts to actually run Wagner (and/or bring parts of it fully into the Russian military). Putin may have guaranteed them that everything was cool, but obviously it's not cool - he's not going to leave them hanging out there, waiting for them to start shit.

The good news is that the Russian military is pretty damned tied up across the board - if Putin had tens of thousands of trained troops that could fully take Wagner into "custody" (whatever that would look like), he'd have already thrown them into the front lines in Ukraine.  But he doesn't - he's got cannon fodder that is doing good to man trenches and bunkers.  He can't wait around for a new batch of conscripts to be fully trained up to take on a group like Wagner (and arguably he may not have the personnel/training infrastructure to do such a thing at this point). He can't pull thousands/tens of thousands of experienced and/or trained soldiers off the line to go chasing after Wagner, because those lines will collapse - Ukraine is watching everything like a hawk. And chances are, at this point in 2023, trained troops within the Russian Army are probably scattered all up and down the lines in Ukraine - it's doubtful he'd have even a brigade of fully-trained personnel that could take on Wagner.

Knowing all of that, if you're Wagner leadership, you know Putin is coming for you, but you also know that if you stick together (or you'll hang separately), Putin arguably doesn't have a unit that can take you on in a stand-up fight, at least not without giving the Ukrainians a hole to drive a bunch of brigades through. You don't  necessarily want to wait around in Ukraine or Russia though, to see if he tries to pick off the leadership in ones or twos (up to and including air strikes) or because things could change and he might find a few thousand troops to throw at you, or he's able to maneuver you into running into Ukrainians.

You have two options:  1. Belarus.  2. Africa.  As far as I'm concerned, Syria is a no-go, because you run the risk of the Russians killing you, or the Syrians doing something to you.  You will be outnumbered in Syria by Russian and Syrian forces combined (and you maybe ordered to attack Americans again, and we saw how that went last time).  At the least, you might just be tied up while other parts of Wagner are dealt with in Europe and Africa.

Africa is not bad, but your manpower and logistics pipeline to Wagner forces in Belarus and/or other points in that part of Europe is probably very constrained, so if shit goes sideways, either with the ruling government of whatever country you are in, or Putin openly cuts you loose (arguably he may have), you may not get any reinforcements, especially if Wagner is in land-locked Belarus, but persona non grata in Russia. There's no easy route between Belarus and Africa for Wagner. And if you are cut loose by Putin and branded a terrorist organization by more countries, Putin may let the US, England, and France destroy you, or at least isolate you from  your cronies in Europe, and put you at the  mercy of the locals once your resources start running low.

Belarus has a military of roughly 40-50,000 (on paper). May seem like a lot, but few of them are combat-experienced and probably not ready to have a go with a bunch of battle-hardened thugs who love sledgehammers, especially since most of those 40,000 - 50,000 active duty Belarussian troops are cooks, truck drivers, mechanics, logistics, medical, construction/engineering, and so on, plus the troops that are a part of the Belarussian air force, plus a shitload of their heavy equipment has already been given to Russia. If there's 5,000 actual trained infantry in the active duty components of the Belarussian military, I'd be shocked, but they'd be scattered around anyways - Lukashenko apparently has a thing about making sure no truly large military units are gathered in one location, in case of rebellion.  There are state/national militia/conscripts, but how hard would they fight for Lukashenko?

Belarus I think is doable, and there's a little breathing room between them and Putin/Moscow - yeah, Russia has troops in Belarus, but those were supposed to tie down Ukrainian units and/or are working at the various supply/repair depots that Russia has along the Ukrainian/Belarus border, and if they were any good, he'd have them in Ukraine (and their heavy equipment is being used in Ukraine). If Wagner makes a play for Belarus, Putin will have a hard time because he'll basically be invading Belarus, and with what trained troops since existing troops would be trying to defend their bases/depots from Wagner? And what happens if Belarussians rise up against Lukashenko if Wagner tries to take him out? Belarus maybe a small nation, but Putin doesn't have the troops to take and hold it in the middle of the fight with Ukraine.  And how does Putin sell that to the Belarussians and Russians?  "Sorry guys, my bad, now we gotta conscript more of you from the big cities because I have another Special Military Operation I have to cook up for Belarus!"

I think Putin will move fast to purge Wagner, so if something is going to happen, it'll be very soon. Probably Tuesday, because it's always Tuesday except when it's not. So maybe Wagner moves this weekend.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 24932

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US Department of State's statement on Ukrainian Independence Day. 

Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State

I want to congratulate all Ukrainians on their Independence Day. August 24th is a testament to Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and democracy and a day of pride in Ukraine’s strength and resilience. It is also a day of celebration of Ukrainian heritage and culture.

Today also marks one and a half years since the Kremlin launched its brutal, full-scale invasion of Ukraine – 18 months of senseless aggression, causing death and destruction across Ukraine. As we join you in celebrating more than three decades as an independent country, we also mourn with you remembering your sons and daughters who have given their lives in defense of your country. We stand by you in the fight for your beloved country.

It is because of you and your resilience that Ukraine will prevail, and Russia will pay a high price for what it has done. The United States will continue to stand with you and work with our Allies and partners to ensure Ukraine has what it needs to defend itself, to recover, and to thrive.

 

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KYHorn

KYHorn 16711

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 Ukrainian GUR says it carried out a special operation - an amphibious landing, in the Tarkhankut peninsula of Crimea, where it destroyed several occupiers, as well as the S-400 air defence system. Russian officials tried to say the boats were destroyed, but independent sources are saying they all managed to get away.

 

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Pods

Pods 7498

Posted
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15 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

 

I know asking a question in your title is a technique to get extra clicks, but what a ridiculous fucking question that literally no one else is asking for a reason. 

It's a real head scratcher. Hopefully one day someone will solve it. 

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4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Let's game this out.

The remaining Wagner leadership know they are not long for this world. At this point, they know they will be purged, in favor of people that Putin trusts to actually run Wagner (and/or bring parts of it fully into the Russian military). Putin may have guaranteed them that everything was cool, but obviously it's not cool - he's not going to leave them hanging out there, waiting for them to start shit.

The good news is that the Russian military is pretty damned tied up across the board - if Putin had tens of thousands of trained troops that could fully take Wagner into "custody" (whatever that would look like), he'd have already thrown them into the front lines in Ukraine.  But he doesn't - he's got cannon fodder that is doing good to man trenches and bunkers.  He can't wait around for a new batch of conscripts to be fully trained up to take on a group like Wagner (and arguably he may not have the personnel/training infrastructure to do such a thing at this point). He can't pull thousands/tens of thousands of experienced and/or trained soldiers off the line to go chasing after Wagner, because those lines will collapse - Ukraine is watching everything like a hawk. And chances are, at this point in 2023, trained troops within the Russian Army are probably scattered all up and down the lines in Ukraine - it's doubtful he'd have even a brigade of fully-trained personnel that could take on Wagner.

Knowing all of that, if you're Wagner leadership, you know Putin is coming for you, but you also know that if you stick together (or you'll hang separately), Putin arguably doesn't have a unit that can take you on in a stand-up fight, at least not without giving the Ukrainians a hole to drive a bunch of brigades through. You don't  necessarily want to wait around in Ukraine or Russia though, to see if he tries to pick off the leadership in ones or twos (up to and including air strikes) or because things could change and he might find a few thousand troops to throw at you, or he's able to maneuver you into running into Ukrainians.

You have two options:  1. Belarus.  2. Africa.  As far as I'm concerned, Syria is a no-go, because you run the risk of the Russians killing you, or the Syrians doing something to you.  You will be outnumbered in Syria by Russian and Syrian forces combined (and you maybe ordered to attack Americans again, and we saw how that went last time).  At the least, you might just be tied up while other parts of Wagner are dealt with in Europe and Africa.

Africa is not bad, but your manpower and logistics pipeline to Wagner forces in Belarus and/or other points in that part of Europe is probably very constrained, so if shit goes sideways, either with the ruling government of whatever country you are in, or Putin openly cuts you loose (arguably he may have), you may not get any reinforcements, especially if Wagner is in land-locked Belarus, but persona non grata in Russia. There's no easy route between Belarus and Africa for Wagner. And if you are cut loose by Putin and branded a terrorist organization by more countries, Putin may let the US, England, and France destroy you, or at least isolate you from  your cronies in Europe, and put you at the  mercy of the locals once your resources start running low.

Belarus has a military of roughly 40-50,000 (on paper). May seem like a lot, but few of them are combat-experienced and probably not ready to have a go with a bunch of battle-hardened thugs who love sledgehammers, especially since most of those 40,000 - 50,000 active duty Belarussian troops are cooks, truck drivers, mechanics, logistics, medical, construction/engineering, and so on, plus the troops that are a part of the Belarussian air force, plus a shitload of their heavy equipment has already been given to Russia. If there's 5,000 actual trained infantry in the active duty components of the Belarussian military, I'd be shocked, but they'd be scattered around anyways - Lukashenko apparently has a thing about making sure no truly large military units are gathered in one location, in case of rebellion.  There are state/national militia/conscripts, but how hard would they fight for Lukashenko?

Belarus I think is doable, and there's a little breathing room between them and Putin/Moscow - yeah, Russia has troops in Belarus, but those were supposed to tie down Ukrainian units and/or are working at the various supply/repair depots that Russia has along the Ukrainian/Belarus border, and if they were any good, he'd have them in Ukraine (and their heavy equipment is being used in Ukraine). If Wagner makes a play for Belarus, Putin will have a hard time because he'll basically be invading Belarus, and with what trained troops since existing troops would be trying to defend their bases/depots from Wagner? And what happens if Belarussians rise up against Lukashenko if Wagner tries to take him out? Belarus maybe a small nation, but Putin doesn't have the troops to take and hold it in the middle of the fight with Ukraine.  And how does Putin sell that to the Belarussians and Russians?  "Sorry guys, my bad, now we gotta conscript more of you from the big cities because I have another Special Military Operation I have to cook up for Belarus!"

I think Putin will move fast to purge Wagner, so if something is going to happen, it'll be very soon. Probably Tuesday, because it's always Tuesday except when it's not. So maybe Wagner moves this weekend.

No place that might plausibly be willing to host undesirable Wagner leadership will be willing to actually do it because there is no upside to helping war criminal former mercenaries who lost their krisha. If they are really out of favor, then they also lost what made them attractive in the first place— the implicit backing of the Kremlin and the resources of the Russian state.

And for Lukashenka and (insert African warlord/autocrat), pissing off the krisha (Putin) has a lot of negative consequences with few upsides. And he’d be pissed if you sided with the former “mercenaries” that he sent you to begin with.  
 

If these guys live it means Putin wants them to. If he’s really wanting to crack them— then defecting to Ukraine or the West and offering intel is their best hope. Always remember that Prigozhin staged a failed mutiny and not an actual coup with an independent power base. 

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956 Worldwide

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1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

 Ukrainian GUR says it carried out a special operation - an amphibious landing, in the Tarkhankut peninsula of Crimea, where it destroyed several occupiers, as well as the S-400 air defence system. Russian officials tried to say the boats were destroyed, but independent sources are saying they all managed to get away.

 

On Ukrainian Independence Day. This is sort of a Doolittle Raid inspired operation. As much psychological on both sides but a destroyed S-400 is super high value. 

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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11730

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24 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

No place that might plausibly be willing to host undesirable Wagner leadership will be willing to actually do it because there is no upside to helping war criminal former mercenaries who lost their krisha. If they are really out of favor, then they also lost what made them attractive in the first place— the implicit backing of the Kremlin and the resources of the Russian state.

And for Lukashenka and (insert African warlord/autocrat), pissing off the krisha (Putin) has a lot of negative consequences with few upsides. And he’d be pissed if you sided with the former “mercenaries” that he sent you to begin with.  
 

If these guys live it means Putin wants them to. If he’s really wanting to crack them— then defecting to Ukraine or the West and offering intel is their best hope. Always remember that Prigozhin staged a failed mutiny and not an actual coup with an independent power base. 

I saw a crazy theory that Wagner was planning to take Kaliningrad by negotiating safe passage from Belarus with Latvia and Poland.  Crazy but hey, it’s Russia.

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9600

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6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Let's game this out.

The remaining Wagner leadership know they are not long for this world. At this point, they know they will be purged, in favor of people that Putin trusts to actually run Wagner (and/or bring parts of it fully into the Russian military). Putin may have guaranteed them that everything was cool, but obviously it's not cool - he's not going to leave them hanging out there, waiting for them to start shit.

The good news is that the Russian military is pretty damned tied up across the board - if Putin had tens of thousands of trained troops that could fully take Wagner into "custody" (whatever that would look like), he'd have already thrown them into the front lines in Ukraine.  But he doesn't - he's got cannon fodder that is doing good to man trenches and bunkers.  He can't wait around for a new batch of conscripts to be fully trained up to take on a group like Wagner (and arguably he may not have the personnel/training infrastructure to do such a thing at this point). He can't pull thousands/tens of thousands of experienced and/or trained soldiers off the line to go chasing after Wagner, because those lines will collapse - Ukraine is watching everything like a hawk. And chances are, at this point in 2023, trained troops within the Russian Army are probably scattered all up and down the lines in Ukraine - it's doubtful he'd have even a brigade of fully-trained personnel that could take on Wagner.

Knowing all of that, if you're Wagner leadership, you know Putin is coming for you, but you also know that if you stick together (or you'll hang separately), Putin arguably doesn't have a unit that can take you on in a stand-up fight, at least not without giving the Ukrainians a hole to drive a bunch of brigades through. You don't  necessarily want to wait around in Ukraine or Russia though, to see if he tries to pick off the leadership in ones or twos (up to and including air strikes) or because things could change and he might find a few thousand troops to throw at you, or he's able to maneuver you into running into Ukrainians.

You have two options:  1. Belarus.  2. Africa.  As far as I'm concerned, Syria is a no-go, because you run the risk of the Russians killing you, or the Syrians doing something to you.  You will be outnumbered in Syria by Russian and Syrian forces combined (and you maybe ordered to attack Americans again, and we saw how that went last time).  At the least, you might just be tied up while other parts of Wagner are dealt with in Europe and Africa.

Africa is not bad, but your manpower and logistics pipeline to Wagner forces in Belarus and/or other points in that part of Europe is probably very constrained, so if shit goes sideways, either with the ruling government of whatever country you are in, or Putin openly cuts you loose (arguably he may have), you may not get any reinforcements, especially if Wagner is in land-locked Belarus, but persona non grata in Russia. There's no easy route between Belarus and Africa for Wagner. And if you are cut loose by Putin and branded a terrorist organization by more countries, Putin may let the US, England, and France destroy you, or at least isolate you from  your cronies in Europe, and put you at the  mercy of the locals once your resources start running low.

Belarus has a military of roughly 40-50,000 (on paper). May seem like a lot, but few of them are combat-experienced and probably not ready to have a go with a bunch of battle-hardened thugs who love sledgehammers, especially since most of those 40,000 - 50,000 active duty Belarussian troops are cooks, truck drivers, mechanics, logistics, medical, construction/engineering, and so on, plus the troops that are a part of the Belarussian air force, plus a shitload of their heavy equipment has already been given to Russia. If there's 5,000 actual trained infantry in the active duty components of the Belarussian military, I'd be shocked, but they'd be scattered around anyways - Lukashenko apparently has a thing about making sure no truly large military units are gathered in one location, in case of rebellion.  There are state/national militia/conscripts, but how hard would they fight for Lukashenko?

Belarus I think is doable, and there's a little breathing room between them and Putin/Moscow - yeah, Russia has troops in Belarus, but those were supposed to tie down Ukrainian units and/or are working at the various supply/repair depots that Russia has along the Ukrainian/Belarus border, and if they were any good, he'd have them in Ukraine (and their heavy equipment is being used in Ukraine). If Wagner makes a play for Belarus, Putin will have a hard time because he'll basically be invading Belarus, and with what trained troops since existing troops would be trying to defend their bases/depots from Wagner? And what happens if Belarussians rise up against Lukashenko if Wagner tries to take him out? Belarus maybe a small nation, but Putin doesn't have the troops to take and hold it in the middle of the fight with Ukraine.  And how does Putin sell that to the Belarussians and Russians?  "Sorry guys, my bad, now we gotta conscript more of you from the big cities because I have another Special Military Operation I have to cook up for Belarus!"

I think Putin will move fast to purge Wagner, so if something is going to happen, it'll be very soon. Probably Tuesday, because it's always Tuesday except when it's not. So maybe Wagner moves this weekend.

 

IMG_3597.jpeg

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Braff Zacklin

Braff Zacklin 13298

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10 hours ago, Nivek said:

If you don't know why he went to Africa in particular then it seems that maybe you just don't know much about him.   His organization had a lot of interest in Africa as that is a huge revenue stream for Wagner.   It is not out of character for the leader of an organization to travel around during turmoil to his breadbasket to ensure it is still aligned to him.  

Meanwhile, Putin stays put, which makes him far more predictable ... or did, cuz Prigozhin has suddenly become very predictable.

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Horn Dogg

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6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Let's game this out.

The remaining Wagner leadership know they are not long for this world. At this point, they know they will be purged, in favor of people that Putin trusts to actually run Wagner (and/or bring parts of it fully into the Russian military). Putin may have guaranteed them that everything was cool, but obviously it's not cool - he's not going to leave them hanging out there, waiting for them to start shit.

The good news is that the Russian military is pretty damned tied up across the board - if Putin had tens of thousands of trained troops that could fully take Wagner into "custody" (whatever that would look like), he'd have already thrown them into the front lines in Ukraine.  But he doesn't - he's got cannon fodder that is doing good to man trenches and bunkers.  He can't wait around for a new batch of conscripts to be fully trained up to take on a group like Wagner (and arguably he may not have the personnel/training infrastructure to do such a thing at this point). He can't pull thousands/tens of thousands of experienced and/or trained soldiers off the line to go chasing after Wagner, because those lines will collapse - Ukraine is watching everything like a hawk. And chances are, at this point in 2023, trained troops within the Russian Army are probably scattered all up and down the lines in Ukraine - it's doubtful he'd have even a brigade of fully-trained personnel that could take on Wagner.

Knowing all of that, if you're Wagner leadership, you know Putin is coming for you, but you also know that if you stick together (or you'll hang separately), Putin arguably doesn't have a unit that can take you on in a stand-up fight, at least not without giving the Ukrainians a hole to drive a bunch of brigades through. You don't  necessarily want to wait around in Ukraine or Russia though, to see if he tries to pick off the leadership in ones or twos (up to and including air strikes) or because things could change and he might find a few thousand troops to throw at you, or he's able to maneuver you into running into Ukrainians.

You have two options:  1. Belarus.  2. Africa.  As far as I'm concerned, Syria is a no-go, because you run the risk of the Russians killing you, or the Syrians doing something to you.  You will be outnumbered in Syria by Russian and Syrian forces combined (and you maybe ordered to attack Americans again, and we saw how that went last time).  At the least, you might just be tied up while other parts of Wagner are dealt with in Europe and Africa.

Africa is not bad, but your manpower and logistics pipeline to Wagner forces in Belarus and/or other points in that part of Europe is probably very constrained, so if shit goes sideways, either with the ruling government of whatever country you are in, or Putin openly cuts you loose (arguably he may have), you may not get any reinforcements, especially if Wagner is in land-locked Belarus, but persona non grata in Russia. There's no easy route between Belarus and Africa for Wagner. And if you are cut loose by Putin and branded a terrorist organization by more countries, Putin may let the US, England, and France destroy you, or at least isolate you from  your cronies in Europe, and put you at the  mercy of the locals once your resources start running low.

Belarus has a military of roughly 40-50,000 (on paper). May seem like a lot, but few of them are combat-experienced and probably not ready to have a go with a bunch of battle-hardened thugs who love sledgehammers, especially since most of those 40,000 - 50,000 active duty Belarussian troops are cooks, truck drivers, mechanics, logistics, medical, construction/engineering, and so on, plus the troops that are a part of the Belarussian air force, plus a shitload of their heavy equipment has already been given to Russia. If there's 5,000 actual trained infantry in the active duty components of the Belarussian military, I'd be shocked, but they'd be scattered around anyways - Lukashenko apparently has a thing about making sure no truly large military units are gathered in one location, in case of rebellion.  There are state/national militia/conscripts, but how hard would they fight for Lukashenko?

Belarus I think is doable, and there's a little breathing room between them and Putin/Moscow - yeah, Russia has troops in Belarus, but those were supposed to tie down Ukrainian units and/or are working at the various supply/repair depots that Russia has along the Ukrainian/Belarus border, and if they were any good, he'd have them in Ukraine (and their heavy equipment is being used in Ukraine). If Wagner makes a play for Belarus, Putin will have a hard time because he'll basically be invading Belarus, and with what trained troops since existing troops would be trying to defend their bases/depots from Wagner? And what happens if Belarussians rise up against Lukashenko if Wagner tries to take him out? Belarus maybe a small nation, but Putin doesn't have the troops to take and hold it in the middle of the fight with Ukraine.  And how does Putin sell that to the Belarussians and Russians?  "Sorry guys, my bad, now we gotta conscript more of you from the big cities because I have another Special Military Operation I have to cook up for Belarus!"

I think Putin will move fast to purge Wagner, so if something is going to happen, it'll be very soon. Probably Tuesday, because it's always Tuesday except when it's not. So maybe Wagner moves this weekend.

To sum it up, someone in Russia is a fucked chicken.

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