Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[MissingInAction 25082]

With only 10 rounds of ammunition. 

[atomheartbevo 89675]

Here’s the full interview with Timothy Snyder that was mentioned earlier

 

[Gengs1 2583]

3 hours ago, Pods said:

Pictures are starting to surface. I'm going to break it into a couple of posts in case it crashes. Looks like at least the Ropucha is fucked, probably Kilo too. There were reports on Russian Telegram channels that both the Ropucha and Kilo were damaged, but they've been deleted. Geolocated images show both the Ropucha and Kilo on fire. 

First, the Ropucha.

 

 

[MissingInAction 25082]

How are you guys dealing with vatniks in your personal life? Do you even try, or just avoid the subject altogether?

I start to get the shakes eveytime I hear someone parroting kremlin propaganda.

So far I just walk away, but that feels wrong. 

Then I remind myself of this fable:

https://www.storyofsouls.com/dont-argue-with-donkeys/

 

[atomheartbevo 89675]

 

[atomheartbevo 89675]

7 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

How are you guys dealing with vatniks in your personal life?

some more from the tweets

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28956]

23 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

How are you guys dealing with vatniks in your personal life? Do you even try, or just avoid the subject altogether?

I start to get the shakes eveytime I hear someone parroting kremlin propaganda.

So far I just walk away, but that feels wrong. 

Then I remind myself of this fable:

https://www.storyofsouls.com/dont-argue-with-donkeys/

 

I work with a guy that is in the Army reserve. He came back from being deployed to Kuwait/Iraq for a year in the process of getting divorced from his wife, insanely Catholic, and parroting Russian propaganda about Ukraine. He's a guy that already had a reputation for being full of shit pretty often.

[27-25 2047]

 

[Schulz2.0 28956]

 

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89675]

Solovyov thinks Washington, New York City. London, Berlin, need to be attacked.

 

 

[MissingInAction 25082]

This is loud and fucking spectacular!

 

 

[NorthLoop 14205]

6 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

This is loud and fucking spectacular!

 

 

That's gotta be a good feeling, knowing you may have just saved the lives of a bunch of civilians with one shot. 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

Are we thinking the attack on Sevastopol is the first appearance of ATACMS?  Or is this a Neptune strike?

Either way, if the fleet at Sevastopol is vulnerable to ballistic-missile attack, then what's the point of having that base?  And if that base has to be abandoned, doesn't much of the strategic reason for occupying Crimea evaporate?

[Chad Fuck 17683]

27 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Solovyov thinks Washington, New York City. London, Berlin, need to be attacked.

 

 

[Chopper 17235]

11 hours ago, Parliament said:

So what's they hit it with?  Drone boats?

from the Kyiv Post https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21565

[Chad Fuck 17683]

9 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Are we thinking the attack on Sevastopol is the first appearance of ATACMS?  Or is this a Neptune strike?

Either way, if the fleet at Sevastopol is vulnerable to ballistic-missile attack, then what's the point of having that base?  And if that base has to be abandoned, doesn't much of the strategic reason for occupying Crimea evaporate?

Up thread there was a Ukrainian tweet that was something along the lines of "glory to the UAF."  

Considering that just within the last two days we saw the radars chopped off those rigs of the west coast of Crimea, I'm thinking its possible this was an airstrike done while the Russians couldn't look west.

 

Edited September 13, 2023 by Chad Fuck
*Props to Chopper who was able to pull an actual citation.

[NorthLoop 14205]

11 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

Either way, if the fleet at Sevastopol is vulnerable to ballistic-missile attack, then what's the point of having that base?  And if that base has to be abandoned, doesn't much of the strategic reason for occupying Crimea evaporate?

 

I think it's way more than strategic. It's symbollic. It's a prize that they don't want to give up. 

[Chad Fuck 17683]

Just now, NorthLoop said:

 

I think it's way more than strategic. It's symbollic. It's a prize that they don't want to give up. 

This.  It's wrapped up in national identity from the sieges in the Crimean War and WWII. 

[Nathan Jessep 147]

3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Quick hit on the North Korea meeting. First, it’s of course hugely embarrassing for VVP that the massive Russian Federation has to go begging to the worlds 118th economy, a reviled totalitarian Mordor, for weapons to extend a failing war.  Sanctions work. 

How is it failing? Sanctions are working?

 

A couple interesting sections.

"American and Western officials say there is some good news. Russian production is still not keeping pace with how fast the military is burning through ammunition and wearing out equipment. For example, even though Russia is on pace to produce two million rounds of ammunition a year, it fired about 10 million rounds of artillery last year. That has led Moscow to desperately search for alternative sources to increase its stocks, most recently by trying to secure a weapons deal with North Korea, U.S. and Western officials said."

But here's the kicker from earlier in the piece.

"Western officials also believe Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year — double the amount Western intelligence services had initially estimated Russia could manufacture before the war.

As a result of the push, Russia is now producing more ammunition than the United States and Europe. Overall, Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian defense ministry official, estimated that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West."

Seven times. wtf

It seems pretty clear that the West has to escalate involvement significantly otherwise Ukraine is fucked as it stands now.

Perhaps should have negotiated as Milley suggested when Russia was on back foot.

[CHIEF 5089]

8 minutes ago, Nathan Jessep said:

How is it failing? Sanctions are working?

 

A couple interesting sections.

"American and Western officials say there is some good news. Russian production is still not keeping pace with how fast the military is burning through ammunition and wearing out equipment. For example, even though Russia is on pace to produce two million rounds of ammunition a year, it fired about 10 million rounds of artillery last year. That has led Moscow to desperately search for alternative sources to increase its stocks, most recently by trying to secure a weapons deal with North Korea, U.S. and Western officials said."

But here's the kicker from earlier in the piece.

"Western officials also believe Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year — double the amount Western intelligence services had initially estimated Russia could manufacture before the war.

As a result of the push, Russia is now producing more ammunition than the United States and Europe. Overall, Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian defense ministry official, estimated that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West."

Seven times. wtf

It seems pretty clear that the West has to escalate involvement significantly otherwise Ukraine is fucked as it stands now.

Perhaps should have negotiated as Milley suggested when Russia was on back foot.

I guess the silver lining is they can't build artillery or replace barrels often enough to shoot all of those shells. Seven times the number but less than seven times as accurate.

CHIEF

Edited September 13, 2023 by CHIEF

[Captainant 27676]

4 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

I guess the silver lining is they can't build artillery or replace barrels often enough to shoot all of those shells. Seven times the number but less than seven times as accurate.

CHIEF

TBH I'd love for them to try to keep shooting with their worn out barrels. Automatic counterbattery fire!

[Schulz2.0 28956]

34 minutes ago, Chopper said:

from the Kyiv Post https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21565

 

 

[The Dog 44056]

[BamaATL 16593]

5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

So to confidently answer @BamaATL, this guy is an OSINT expert and says Russia doesn’t have dry docks outside of Sevastopol. It’s been the home of the Black Sea Fleet since the empire, and they just never built facilities elsewhere.

 

So this attack wasn't so much on the sub or the ship, it was on the repair facility, which is smart, because it limits their ability to repair shit as the Ukrainians damage more stuff.  Nice work. 

[Chad Fuck 17683]

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

So this attack wasn't so much on the sub or the ship, it was on the repair facility, which is smart, because it limits their ability to repair shit as the Ukrainians damage more stuff.  Nice work. 

Still, knocking out a cruise missile slinging sub is a nice bonus for knocking out the repair facility.  

 

[The Dog 44056]

21 minutes ago, Nathan Jessep said:

How is it failing? Sanctions are working?

 

A couple interesting sections.

"American and Western officials say there is some good news. Russian production is still not keeping pace with how fast the military is burning through ammunition and wearing out equipment. For example, even though Russia is on pace to produce two million rounds of ammunition a year, it fired about 10 million rounds of artillery last year. That has led Moscow to desperately search for alternative sources to increase its stocks, most recently by trying to secure a weapons deal with North Korea, U.S. and Western officials said."

But here's the kicker from earlier in the piece.

"Western officials also believe Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year — double the amount Western intelligence services had initially estimated Russia could manufacture before the war.

As a result of the push, Russia is now producing more ammunition than the United States and Europe. Overall, Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian defense ministry official, estimated that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West."

Seven times. wtf

It seems pretty clear that the West has to escalate involvement significantly otherwise Ukraine is fucked as it stands now.

Perhaps should have negotiated as Milley suggested when Russia was on back foot.

[The Dog 44056]

[BamaATL 16593]

School lunch programs likely in trouble

 

[The Dog 44056]

[956 Worldwide 34715]

Let’s talk here about the floated Swedish provision of JAS-39 Gripens to Ukraine. 
 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/sweden-considering-donating-jas-39-gripens-to-ukraine-report 
 

Buried in this thread, me and @Dahobbs and others talk about how from a pure airframe standpoint the Gripen is better for Ukraine than the F-16. What the Gripen doesn’t have is the numbers or logistics tail that comes with the F-16. 
 

The Gripen is a fantastic fighter and a great concept that has frankly failed for Saab due to geopolitical realities.  In a world of 5gen, when NATO is looking to spend more rather than less on defense and wants to cement the U.S connection in the event of a REAL war— the nice little affordable Swedish jet isn’t attractive. Europe spoke and it voted F-35. The only European customers are Hungary (leased) and Czech (leased and most likely soon to replace with F-35. Outside of that, customers are Brazil, Thailand, and South Africa. 
 

A nice base but not murder’s row. And what has happened is that Saab isn’t cheap enough for countries that consider buying Russian scrap, and can’t compete with the USG FMF package for nations looking to spend more.

Enter Ukraine.  First, of course, the Swedes want to help. But this is big-time self-interest.  It’s a marketing campaign if it happens. If Saab can get these jets in theatre, flying, and MAYBE even outperforming F-16s on key metrics then all of a sudden this little jet is a battle proven commodity that Saab and the Swedes have proven they can put into the fight in a high-intensity contested environment. And it’s cheaper than what the Americans have. 
 

Now the big markets are suddenly listening to you. 

[RockyMountainHighHorn 890]

26 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Wasn’t there a post about a real small ship being destroyed yesterday? 

[Brisketexan 105147]

25 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

School lunch programs likely in trouble

 

Oh no.  They won't be able to not pave their roads just like they already can't....or something.

[KYHorn 17069]

 

 

 

[Nathan Jessep 147]

52 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

I guess the silver lining is they can't build artillery or replace barrels often enough to shoot all of those shells. Seven times the number but less than seven times as accurate.

CHIEF

 

47 minutes ago, Captainant said:

TBH I'd love for them to try to keep shooting with their worn out barrels. Automatic counterbattery fire!

Barrel shortage? According to whom? The same sources that told you they were almost out of missiles or that the sanctions were working?

The information we are generally being fed WRT to this war appears to be faulty. Occasionally you get drips out of major media outlets like today that tell a different tale. They're quickly brushed aside in favor of dog memes or PR stunts. 

Case in point.

39 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Dog memes and "good PR" don't win wars. Men and weapons do. As the conflict stands now Russia has more of those than Ukraine and the gap looks to be widening especially considering the rumored Russian mobilization. We will need to get more directly involved and get on a true war footing to stop Ukrainian defeat. If we can't muster the support for that, theyre screwed.

[NorthLoop 14205]

The only bad thing about sinking that sub is that now Russia will fire off another volley of missiles at civilian targets. And the NCAA will put SE Tennessee State on probation. 

[Brisketexan 105147]

2 minutes ago, Nathan Jessep said:

Dog memes and "good PR" don't win wars. Men and weapons do.

....by taking and holding territory.

Russia demonstrably failed in their Plan A: to take and hold the bulk of Ukraine, including the capital.

Russia is demonstrably facing challenges with their Plan B: to hold the limited territory that they DID capture.

Cut out all the noise, you're right.  Wars are won based on dirt controlled.  Russia has already lost with respect to its primary objective, and has no real prospects of re-attempting that objective (it has demonstrated no real counter-offensive capability in the past year+).  The jury remains out on its secondary objective, but it's already lost territory it once controlled, and continues to lose more, albeit more slowly than most of us would like.

But in terms of what those "men and weapons" are actually ACCOMPLISHING, Ukraine has done and continues to do quite well.  Certainly way above expectations, just like Russia has performed way below expectations.

[956 Worldwide 34715]

“Russia is going to start winning any day now, they’ve just been holding the good stuff and the NORK ammo in reserve and letting the Ukrainians exhaust themselves on T-90s and Su-34s.”

[Dahobbs 17534]

18 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Let’s talk here about the floated Swedish provision of JAS-39 Gripens to Ukraine. 
 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/sweden-considering-donating-jas-39-gripens-to-ukraine-report 
 

Buried in this thread, me and @Dahobbs and others talk about how from a pure airframe standpoint the Gripen is better for Ukraine than the F-16. What the Gripen doesn’t have is the numbers or logistics tail that comes with the F-16. 
 

The Gripen is a fantastic fighter and a great concept that has frankly failed for Saab due to geopolitical realities.  In a world of 5gen, when NATO is looking to spend more rather than less on defense and wants to cement the U.S connection in the event of a REAL war— the nice little affordable Swedish jet isn’t attractive. Europe spoke and it voted F-35. The only European customers are Hungary (leased) and Czech (leased and most likely soon to replace with F-35. Outside of that, customers are Brazil, Thailand, and South Africa. 
 

A nice base but not murder’s row. And what has happened is that Saab isn’t cheap enough for countries that consider buying Russian scrap, and can’t compete with the USG FMF package for nations looking to spend more.

Enter Ukraine.  First, of course, the Swedes want to help. But this is big-time self-interest.  It’s a marketing campaign if it happens. If Saab can get these jets in theatre, flying, and MAYBE even outperforming F-16s on key metrics then all of a sudden this little jet is a battle proven commodity that Saab and the Swedes have proven they can put into the fight in a high-intensity contested environment. And it’s cheaper than what the Americans have. 
 

Now the big markets are suddenly listening to you. 

It doesn't help that, at least based on purchase price, a new Gripen is actually more expensive than a new F-35A (n.b., Gripen should be significantly cheaper to operate). If Saab could get some customers and volume, I'm sure that price could be pushed downward, but it is a significant problem for its competitiveness.  

[Zonahorn 8079]

26 minutes ago, Nathan Jessep said:

 

Barrel shortage? According to whom? The same sources that told you they were almost out of missiles or that the sanctions were working?

The information we are generally being fed WRT to this war appears to be faulty. Occasionally you get drips out of major media outlets like today that tell a different tale. They're quickly brushed aside in favor of dog memes or PR stunts. 

Case in point.

Dog memes and "good PR" don't win wars. Men and weapons do. As the conflict stands now Russia has more of those than Ukraine and the gap looks to be widening especially considering the rumored Russian mobilization. We will need to get more directly involved and get on a true war footing to stop Ukrainian defeat. If we can't muster the support for that, theyre screwed.

Logistics win wars, and the Russians are shit

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 hour ago, Nathan Jessep said:

How is it failing?

which way are the lines moving, east or west?

[SKJ 1311]

21 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Let’s talk here about the floated Swedish provision of JAS-39 Gripens to Ukraine. 
 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/sweden-considering-donating-jas-39-gripens-to-ukraine-report 
 

Buried in this thread, me and @Dahobbs and others talk about how from a pure airframe standpoint the Gripen is better for Ukraine than the F-16. What the Gripen doesn’t have is the numbers or logistics tail that comes with the F-16. 
 

The Gripen is a fantastic fighter and a great concept that has frankly failed for Saab due to geopolitical realities.  In a world of 5gen, when NATO is looking to spend more rather than less on defense and wants to cement the U.S connection in the event of a REAL war— the nice little affordable Swedish jet isn’t attractive. Europe spoke and it voted F-35. The only European customers are Hungary (leased) and Czech (leased and most likely soon to replace with F-35. Outside of that, customers are Brazil, Thailand, and South Africa. 
 

A nice base but not murder’s row. And what has happened is that Saab isn’t cheap enough for countries that consider buying Russian scrap, and can’t compete with the USG FMF package for nations looking to spend more.

Enter Ukraine.  First, of course, the Swedes want to help. But this is big-time self-interest.  It’s a marketing campaign if it happens. If Saab can get these jets in theatre, flying, and MAYBE even outperforming F-16s on key metrics then all of a sudden this little jet is a battle proven commodity that Saab and the Swedes have proven they can put into the fight in a high-intensity contested environment. And it’s cheaper than what the Americans have. 
 

Now the big markets are suddenly listening to you. 

Arms business might be coming around to the fact that this war is showing proof of concept for products. Maybe that's not the correct term,  but the US companies getting a lot more orders for their products might be prompting other companies to do the same and get some good advertising 

[Nathan Jessep 147]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

....by taking and holding territory.

Russia demonstrably failed in their Plan A: to take and hold the bulk of Ukraine, including the capital.

Russia is demonstrably facing challenges with their Plan B: to hold the limited territory that they DID capture.

Cut out all the noise, you're right.  Wars are won based on dirt controlled.  Russia has already lost with respect to its primary objective, and has no real prospects of re-attempting that objective (it has demonstrated no real counter-offensive capability in the past year+).  The jury remains out on its secondary objective, but it's already lost territory it once controlled, and continues to lose more, albeit more slowly than most of us would like.

But in terms of what those "men and weapons" are actually ACCOMPLISHING, Ukraine has done and continues to do quite well.  Certainly way above expectations, just like Russia has performed way below expectations.

Agree on the first point.

TBD on the second. Gains have been disappointing and far less than expected if anyone is being honest. Especially when you consider, what armor and equipment are we going to commit next? This was the big shot and it hasn't landed. The next step is an increase in involvement or exit ramp imo.

Dirt controlled is important but when your population and fighting force is a fraction of the size of your adversary then men and equipment can mean even more. 

[kevwun 15790]

One of the trolls appears to be back.

[MissingInAction 25082]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

which way are the lines moving, east or west?

Don't feed that dumb fuck troll.

Please sir.

[The Dog 44056]

17 minutes ago, Nathan Jessep said:

Dog memes and "good PR" don't win wars. Men and weapons do. As the conflict stands now Russia has more of those than Ukraine and the gap looks to be widening especially considering the rumored Russian mobilization. We will need to get more directly involved and get on a true war footing to stop Ukrainian defeat. If we can't muster the support for that, theyre screwed.

[Ghost of LL 15531]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Wars are won based on dirt controlled. 

Clausewitz would disagree with that.  According to Clausewitz, one wins a war by destroying the enemy's army.  The occupation of dirt is meaningless so long as the enemy's army remains as a force in being.

Now, perhaps we can argue that point in the modern setting, with logistics requirements that are quite different from the Napoleonic age, which require the control over dirt to maintain the army in the field.  But I think the fundamental point remains: the goal here is not merely the recapture of territory, but also the destruction of the Russian Army as an operational force.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

Pictures are starting to surface. I'm going to break it into a couple of posts in case it crashes. Looks like at least the Ropucha is fucked, probably Kilo too. There were reports on Russian Telegram channels that both the Ropucha and Kilo were damaged, but they've been deleted. Geolocated images show both the Ropucha and Kilo on fire. 
First, the Ropucha.

 
Bigger shot of the left image that shows the damage better. 

 
 

The Kilo is toast. Heat on metal designed for pressure.

[Brisketexan 105147]

1 minute ago, Nathan Jessep said:

Agree on the first point.

TBD on the second. Gains have been disappointing and far less than expected if anyone is being honest. Especially when you consider, what armor and equipment are we going to commit next? This was the big shot and it hasn't landed. The next step is an increase in involvement or exit ramp imo.

Dirt controlled is important but when your population and fighting force is a fraction of the size of your adversary then men and equipment can mean even more. 

Wait...you think it's "TBD" on whether Russia can capture Kyiv?  For real?  Russia shit the fucking bed, man.  It did it in broad daylight, in front of the whole world.  And mind you, at that stage, Ukraine had MINIMAL western kit.  They had mostly old soviet shit, and some Javelins.  If the US had run up against a similarly armed opponent....we would have been in their capital inside a week, for fuck's sake.

And I'm not disappointed in the counter-offensive thus far, but then, my expectations for it have been realistic from the get-go.  This is a WWI style war.  Trenches and artillery.  With a 21st century overlay of drones and ballistic missiles, but not many of the second on either side (compared to what a real power would sling, and how it would use them).  The attrition RATES on equipment appear to be pretty similar thus far, which means it's sustainable for quite some time.

And finally, the counterpoint on size is the size of the objective: Ukraine doesn't need to conquer and occupy Russia.  It just needs to expel Russia from a relatively small swath of territory, all things considered.  And really, it doesn't even need to "expel" Russia from all of that territory -- it just needs to expel Russia from enough of it that it's inhospitable for Russia to stay in the remainder, long-term.  Ukraine doesn't have to march to the tip of the Crimean peninsula.  It just needs to make Crimea unlivable and unusable for the occupiers.

That's how you win a war like this.  Ukraine has done what it needs to do, and is continuing to do so.  Russia has not.  By objective, measurable benchmarks.  Not memes or PR.

[Nathan Jessep 147]

3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

which way are the lines moving, east or west?

East, minimally. But who's reloading, or even has the capacity to reload? 

 

2 minutes ago, kevwun said:

One of the trolls appears to be back.

The truth hurts. Don't blame me, blame the Putin apologists at the NYT.

 

4 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Don't feed that dumb fuck troll.

Please sir.

 

[kevwun 15790]

See you in a few weeks, asshole.