Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Chad Fuck 18,167]

Anyone signed up yet
[/url]  
90kg? Nvm
 
 
 
 
 
 

So a bunch of angry former soldiers running loose with nothing to do but focus their ire on Putin?

I have no problem with that.

[Parliament 14,620]

I gotta check my notes, but didn't the Russian Revolution start that way?

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,873]

A shot across the bow if you will.  Putin won't give two shits though if small town Russians freeze to death this winter, which my guess is they will.
 

The power systems UKR is attacking feed military targets be they bases or munition production.

[BamaATL 16,593]

11 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

The power systems UKR is attacking feed military targets be they bases or munition production.

That may well be true, but they've also recently been saying that if you hit our power production this winter will we respond in kind.  I think this is sort of a precursor to that.  Again, I doubt Putin gives a crap out his own people suffering and freezing.  

[Born to Run 6,601]

That may well be true, but they've also recently been saying that if you hit our power production this winter will we respond in kind.  I think this is sort of a precursor to that.  Again, I doubt Putin gives a crap out his own people suffering and freezing.  

He won't until enouugh rise up enough to matter. Populaces under authorities regimes tend to flip all at once.

[atomheartbevo 90,683]

3 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

46 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

That may well be true, but they've also recently been saying that if you hit our power production this winter will we respond in kind.  I think this is sort of a precursor to that.  Again, I doubt Putin gives a crap out his own people suffering and freezing.  

He won't until enouugh rise up enough to matter. Populaces under authorities regimes tend to flip all at once.

At least with the men, you can kind of divide them into three camps:

• The ones who support this and showed up for conscription and/or volunteered.
• The ones who bailed on Russia
• The ones who want nothing to do with this, but couldn't flee, so they keep their heads down and hope for the best.

The first group is either in uniform, or they've served or would serve, and this won't change their mind about Putin regardless of whether they served or not.

The second group, they're gone.  Non-factor.

The third group, plenty will be thinking "My family and I didn't fucking sign up for this, and state TV keeps telling us Ukraine is a nothing country and keeps talking about how we are beating Ukraine, but now my family is going to freeze and/or starve, and Putin promised us this would be over quickly and state TV told us a few weeks for the whole country and just a few days for Kiev, but it's going on 580 fucking days and Russian officials are just whining on TV about how this isn't fair, but now my family is fucking freezing/starving and Putin has no plan other than to call up more men, maybe even me.  That's his whole plan, more men."

That last group, they are the ones that matter.  They drive revolutions/regime changes, because they are disconnected from the ruling class/leadership either by geography or economics or ideology (otherwise they'd be in the first group that supports this) or even all three.  And you can bet they've got their head to the ground and have been listening/watching all of the unofficial Telegram messages and videos and have been listening to what people are saying about relatives who go off to Ukraine. They've seen the funerals in their village/town/city. They have watched their finances deteriorate, they've watched the selection of goods they once had access to dwindle away as the Western companies left, and they are being asked to suffer/sacrifice.

I don't know if Ukraine can affect the power grid enough to start tipping these people over the edge, but Putin is going to help that by conscripting even more men, men who clearly don't want to serve (or else they would have taken the bonus and signed up earlier this year or last year).

[BamaATL 16,593]

10 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

53 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

That may well be true, but they've also recently been saying that if you hit our power production this winter will we respond in kind.  I think this is sort of a precursor to that.  Again, I doubt Putin gives a crap out his own people suffering and freezing.  

He won't until enouugh rise up enough to matter. Populaces under authorities regimes tend to flip all at once.

I hope you are correct, but at this point I think we are all wish casting hoping for a uprising.  In the last 2 years, he's responsible for killing about 250k of his people (I think western estimates are light on this, but that can certainly be disputed), getting about 600k other maimed, facing a rebellion in which he subsequently killed the leadership of, making them an international pariah, and he just signed the death warrants (in the form of more conscription) of 150k more, and I am still of the belief that economic ruin is either upon them or just around the corner.  If the Russian people were going to do something about it, I think they already would have.  

[B00M 6,736]

4 hours ago, Viper said:

Anyone signed up yet

 

90kg? Nvm

 

 

 

 

 

 

Can they find work in Belarus? I figured Wagner would largely go there to bolster/train Belarus’ army

[atomheartbevo 90,683]

51 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

If the Russian people were going to do something about it, I think they already would have.  

To paraphrase Hemingway, it'll happen gradually and then suddenly.  The Russian Revolutions of 1917 were preceded by 12 years of instability/insurrection/revolution starting around 1905, and you could argue earlier, but Russia having lost the Russo-Japanese War in late 1905 really set things in motion.  Putin is engaged in the modern-day equivalent of quite a few things that happened in those 12 years - wrecking the economy, killing off large numbers of Russians, losing a war.  Wikipedia sums it up better:

"Although Russia suffered a number of defeats, Emperor Nicholas II remained convinced that Russia could still win if it fought on; he chose to remain engaged in the war and await the outcomes of key naval battles. As hope of victory dissipated, he continued the war to preserve the dignity of Russia by averting a "humiliating peace". Russia ignored Japan's willingness early on to agree to an armistice and rejected the idea of bringing the dispute to the Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague. After the decisive naval battle of Tsushima, the war was concluded with the Treaty of Portsmouth (5 September [O.S. 23 August] 1905), mediated by US President Theodore Roosevelt. The complete victory of the Japanese military surprised international observers and transformed the balance of power in both East Asia and Europe, resulting in Japan's emergence as a great power and a decline in the Russian Empire's prestige and influence in Europe. Russia's incurrence of substantial casualties and losses for a cause that resulted in humiliating defeat contributed to a growing domestic unrest which culminated in the 1905 Russian Revolution, and severely damaged the prestige of the Russian autocracy."

[atomheartbevo 90,683]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90,683]

Pavel Gubarev, former "People's Governor" of the Donetsk region, explained why the Russian Armed Forces couldn't take Kyiv in 3 days and defined Russia's ultimate goals, which include killing millions of Ukrainians.

 

[Chad Fuck 18,167]

[/url] Pavel Gubarev, former "People's Governor" of the Donetsk region, explained why the Russian Armed Forces couldn't take Kyiv in 3 days and defined Russia's ultimate goals, which include killing millions of Ukrainians.
 

That dude is nuts.

[KYHorn 17,645]

 U.S. Intelligence has reportedly begun to observe a Significant Movement of Serbian Military Forces towards the Border with Kosovo including the Deployment of several Tank, Artillery, and Mechanized Infantry Divisions; National Security Advisor, John Kirby stated that we are now witnessing an “Unprecedented and Destabilizing” Development which could cause Conflict in the Region.

Worth noting^

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by KYHorn

[BamaATL 16,593]

3 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 U.S. Intelligence has reportedly begun to observe a Significant Movement of Serbian Military Forces towards the Border with Kosovo including the Deployment of several Tank, Artillery, and Mechanized Infantry Divisions; National Security Advisor, John Kirby stated that we are now witnessing an “Unprecedented and Destabilizing” Development which could cause Conflict in the Region.

If the thought is to give NATO some warm up practice this is a great idea.  This is so stupid it's almost hard to believe/an Onion headline.  

[KYHorn 17,645]

Although:

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by KYHorn

[MissingInAction 25,604]

Well....shit.

[Schulz2.0 29,304]

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90,683]

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

U.S. Intelligence has reportedly begun to observe a Significant Movement of Serbian Military Forces towards the Border with Kosovo including the Deployment of several Tank, Artillery, and Mechanized Infantry Divisions; National Security Advisor, John Kirby stated that we are now witnessing an “Unprecedented and Destabilizing” Development which could cause Conflict in the Region.

Worth noting^

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

If the thought is to give NATO some warm up practice this is a great idea.  This is so stupid it's almost hard to believe/an Onion headline.  

Sounds like Russia is desperately trying to stir up a distraction, both politically and militarily, as well as maybe trying to tie down a bunch of western military hardware (not because Russia is going to attack NATO, but to keep it from being donated or make civilians want to put the brakes on donations).

[Schulz2.0 29,304]

 

 

[Chopper 17,451]

Wagner news. tldr; not going great.

 

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 29,304]

 

[Ten Bears 2,500]

23 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

what are we talking about here, the butt stuff?

The tunnels are dark and full of terrors.

[Schulz2.0 29,304]

 

[BamaATL 16,593]

52 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Sounds like Russia is desperately trying to stir up a distraction, both politically and militarily, as well as maybe trying to tie down a bunch of western military hardware (not because Russia is going to attack NATO, but to keep it from being donated or make civilians want to put the brakes on donations).

This is like a Pop Warner or middle school team scheduling the Kansas City Chiefs as a tune up game.  

[InkaUtexas 26,978]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Sounds like Russia is desperately trying to stir up a distraction, both politically and militarily, as well as maybe trying to tie down a bunch of western military hardware (not because Russia is going to attack NATO, but to keep it from being donated or make civilians want to put the brakes on donations).

Serbs are Serbs. They follow the same doctrine of Russia. If they move on Kosovo it is because they do not think the west will do shit, as we did not for years during the war in Bosnia except to train up the Croatians. 

But the mobilized British BN is hard infantry and with NATO Air would fuck them up. Plus the Serbs cannot get much spare parts for their equipment, um, cuz Russia needs them. 

I don't think they go in full force now. I think the Serbs keep trying to provoke, get some radical Kosovar to do something and then they can point and say, see EU, we told you. These are not good Euro's. 

Fucking Chetnicks. 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,873]

TLDR version: Russia is an authoritarian piece of dick populated by pathetic thieves and slaves. Always has been. Always will be.

Wall it off and be done with it.

RU has never moved on from feudalism.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,873]

I hope you are correct, but at this point I think we are all wish casting hoping for a uprising.  In the last 2 years, he's responsible for killing about 250k of his people (I think western estimates are light on this, but that can certainly be disputed), getting about 600k other maimed, facing a rebellion in which he subsequently killed the leadership of, making them an international pariah, and he just signed the death warrants (in the form of more conscription) of 150k more, and I am still of the belief that economic ruin is either upon them or just around the corner.  If the Russian people were going to do something about it, I think they already would have.  

It takes failing at war to get the RU serfs to rise up.

I hope you are correct, but at this point I think we are all wish casting hoping for a uprising.  In the last 2 years, he's responsible for killing about 250k of his people (I think western estimates are light on this, but that can certainly be disputed), getting about 600k other maimed, facing a rebellion in which he subsequently killed the leadership of, making them an international pariah, and he just signed the death warrants (in the form of more conscription) of 150k more, and I am still of the belief that economic ruin is either upon them or just around the corner.  If the Russian people were going to do something about it, I think they already would have.  

It takes failing at war to get the RU serfs to rise up.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,873]

If the thought is to give NATO some warm up practice this is a great idea.  This is so stupid it's almost hard to believe/an Onion headline.  

Serbia is ruZZian backed, it would be about spreading the war and making NATO countries want to keep their weapons and not send them to UKR

[InkaUtexas 26,978]

Italy and an Aircraft Carrier could kick their ass. Nothing we are giving Ukraine would be used vs. the Serbs. This is how the region works. Internal politics get rough, attack a neighbor. Serbs are doing quite a bit to undermine Bosnia's set up, but again, they won't attack Bosnia. 

In the 1990's there was a lot of Russian support for the Serbs (Slavic brethren and all that, even though they are all ethnic Slavs of some sort) but that help has not been coming for a bit. 

[B00M 6,736]

13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

They’re expecting a 10 year war too I guess 

they’re also requiring HS students to take drone courses. clearly desperate 

[BamaATL 16,593]

27 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Italy and an Aircraft Carrier could kick their ass. Nothing we are giving Ukraine would be used vs. the Serbs. This is how the region works. Internal politics get rough, attack a neighbor. Serbs are doing quite a bit to undermine Bosnia's set up, but again, they won't attack Bosnia. 

In the 1990's there was a lot of Russian support for the Serbs (Slavic brethren and all that, even though they are all ethnic Slavs of some sort) but that help has not been coming for a bit. 

It would, however, make for a great test platform for a few hours anyway, of the F35 and stealth cruise missiles against old Soviet crap.  

[InkaUtexas 26,978]

3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

It would, however, make for a great test platform for a few hours anyway, of the F35 and stealth cruise missiles against old Soviet crap.  

Shit, F-16's fucked them up last time. Serbs have not really bought a lot of new shit lately. 

[B00M 6,736]

14 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Pavel Gubarev, former "People's Governor" of the Donetsk region, explained why the Russian Armed Forces couldn't take Kyiv in 3 days and defined Russia's ultimate goals, which include killing millions of Ukrainians.

 

He’s convinced that if they lose in Ukraine, Russia will be ripped apart, “decolonized,” over-run by migrants… WTF?! No one other than China is longing for Russian territory 

[Hawndoh 2,409]

13 minutes ago, B00M said:

He’s convinced that if they lose in Ukraine, Russia will be ripped apart, “decolonized,” over-run by migrants… WTF?! No one other than China is longing for Russian territory 

Yeah, but there's a looooot of Chinese 

[B00M 6,736]

14 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Yeah, but there's a looooot of Chinese 

He manages to spin electively getting their shit shoved in IN Ukraine as fighting for Russia’s very existence. His plan is to re-educate and genocide all of Ukraine. This guy is definitely delusional bordering on fucking regarded. 

[Neonmoon 38,130]

He’s right. If Russia loses, it will be ripped apart. By its own people. 

Belarus as well. 

[Schulz2.0 29,304]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90,683]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

He’s right. If Russia loses, it will be ripped apart. By its own people. 

Belarus as well. 

It's borderline Russian-Japanese War of 1905 when the Tsar wouldn't let his troops stop fighting because he didn't want a humiliating peace, and as a result, ended with a small revolution (which fed into 12 years of serious unrest, culminating in 1917).

The key difference between 2023 and 1905-1917 is that in 2023, anybody who wants to rise up has the chance to link up with like-minded individuals on social media in real-time.

[B00M 6,736]

14 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's borderline Russian-Japanese War of 1905 when the Tsar wouldn't let his troops stop fighting because he didn't want a humiliating peace, and as a result, ended with a small revolution (which fed into 12 years of serious unrest, culminating in 1917).

The key difference between 2023 and 1905-1917 is that in 2023, anybody who wants to rise up has the chance to link up with like-minded individuals on social media in real-time.

The other difference is that all those people linking up can be identified in real time and disappeared in the following days

otherwise the similarities are staggering. Russia is so fucked. It’s such a shame the relentless propaganda will prevent western intervention when the shit hits the fan

Edited September 30, 2023 by B00M
Those poor people deserve liberty

[MillerEP 30,907]

People often overlook or forget that agrarian based (pre-industrialized) Countries have always taken a different path (far-left revolution) than post-Industrial countries (who all went far-right).
The Soviet Union was formed out of Agrarian based countries just coming out of Serfdom, and those they conquered.
I wouldn’t expect we’d see something similar coming out of modern Russia.

Edit: that doesn’t mean I don’t expect to see a revolution eventually, but it’ll take a different form

[InkaUtexas 26,978]

9 minutes ago, B00M said:

The other difference is that all those people linking up can be identified in real time and disappeared in the following days

otherwise the similarities are staggering. Russia is so fucked. It’s such a shame the relentless propaganda will prevent western intervention when the shit hits the fan

1- Agree they are fucked. 

2- It is up to the Russians to unfuck it

3- Last intervention from the west in response to a Russian revolution was not that successful. 

The American Expeditionary Force, North Russia (AEF in North Russia) (also known as the Polar Bear Expedition) was a contingent of about 5,000 United States Army troops that landed in Arkhangelsk, Russia as part of the Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Expeditionary_Force,_North_Russia#:~:text=The American Expeditionary Force%2C North,in the Russian Civil War.

 

[B00M 6,736]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

1- Agree they are fucked. 

2- It is up to the Russians to unfuck it

3- Last intervention from the west in response to a Russian revolution was not that successful. 

The American Expeditionary Force, North Russia (AEF in North Russia) (also known as the Polar Bear Expedition) was a contingent of about 5,000 United States Army troops that landed in Arkhangelsk, Russia as part of the Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Expeditionary_Force,_North_Russia#:~:text=The American Expeditionary Force%2C North,in the Russian Civil War.

 

I assumed 3 would be referring how we tried to coach their transition to “capitalism” … and weather or not that effort was successful kind of depends on your perspective. If the goal was to diminish the threat they posed to the world? Great success. If the goal was to bring them to the west and the modern era, massive failure. 
 

we need to find a way to get western ideals of individual liberty and opportunity to the general Russian population… we need to tear down and publicly air out the KGB/FSB/whatever in the courts, no matter how bad it may make some western leaders look … it will require massive money and humility from the west to actually change Russia. Do we care that much? 

[Hawndoh 2,409]

The west isn't going to change Russia. Only Russia can change Russia, and they don't seem interested in doing that.

So the west needs to isolate and contain them.

[GopherRock 1,778]

4 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

The west isn't going to change Russia. Only Russia can change Russia, and they don't seem interested in doing that.

So the west needs to isolate and contain them.

The Russians are too drunk to try changing. 

[Stilicho 1,422]

What happens with the oligarchs? Are they sufficiently ruined financially to sit out any sort of government restructuring?

[Chopper 17,451]

16 minutes ago, Stilicho said:

What happens with the oligarchs? Are they sufficiently ruined financially to sit out any sort of government restructuring?

The oligarchs acquiesce because -- even if they aren't true believers -- they know they can be killed, or have their entire fortune confiscated, or end up in a Siberian prison if they even so much as say the wrong thing to someone at any time. This is one reason an internal revolt is extremely unlikely.  Also after Prigozhin the ruskis reinforced the police and military that protects Moscow.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Chopper

[InkaUtexas 26,978]

15 minutes ago, Stilicho said:

What happens with the oligarchs? Are they sufficiently ruined financially to sit out any sort of government restructuring?

The current ones disappear to be replaced by a new generation. 

[B00M 6,736]

[Stilicho 1,422]

I'm having a hard time seeing any sort viable anti-Putin movement forming up out of whatever is left of the Russian middle / working class. If the oligarchs are sidelined and there's no money to throw behind a populist strongman (sorta like Prigozhin) this stalemate(?) has the potential to bring about an even nastier turn for Russian society, such as it is.

[KYHorn 17,645]

To train Ukrainians